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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: Beijing Strong Biotechnolo-A, QuantumPharm and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock
  • Pre-IPO QuantumPharm (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


CSI Esoteric Index Rebals Jun 24: All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical, Defense, & Livestock

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • We have already discussed our flow expectations for the mainstream indices in the CSI family such as CSI300/500, SSE50/100, and the STAR50/100 for the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the ADDs/DELs involved in the rebalance of some of the lesser known indices in the CSI family.
  • The indices covered in this insight are All Share Brokerage, China Internet, Medical Devices, National Defense, and Livestock Breeding indices.

Pre-IPO QuantumPharm (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We have always been concerned about QuantumPharm’s business model. It is relatively difficult for a service provider like QuantumPharm to scale up revenue by just relying on charging service fees.
  • For AI pharmaceutical companies, how to make money is a pain point for entire industry. Just focusing on preclinical stages would limit profitability.We haven’t seen any certainty of achieving breakeven.
  • Increasing competition would bring more challenges for QuantumPharm. Post-investment valuation in 2021 was too expensive.If its future performance falls short of expectations, then sooner or later the valuation will collapse. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Mitsui Fudosan, Indiabulls Housing Finance, EURO/US DOLLAR, Kakaopay and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Updated Tool (31May24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”
  • The Beat Ideas: Indiabulls Housing- A New Era in Housing Finance
  • Global Rates : A Round up of Hot Topics for European Rate Markets
  • Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry – US$1bn Overhang from Alipay


Updated Tool (31May24) & “Diff File Generator” For TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price”

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-January 2024, the TSE announced a “name-and-shame” list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
  • The TSE list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We are weeks ahead of the TSE and we have all the links (and the shame list).
  • We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links to every document, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.

The Beat Ideas: Indiabulls Housing- A New Era in Housing Finance

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Indiabulls Housing Finance (IHFL IN) Raised INR 3,693 crores through rights issue, issued $350 million bond.
  • Strong balance sheet, low NPAs, poised for growth in the retail housing via its asset light model.
  • Rebranding to Samman Capital signals new phase of the company with multi-year growth guidance.

Global Rates : A Round up of Hot Topics for European Rate Markets

By At Any Rate

  • Expectation of a 25 basis point cut from the ECB with a focus on delivering on that commitment
  • Market pricing in an incomplete cutting cycle, with potential for further easing depending on inflation dynamics
  • Long duration valuations attractive in both short and intermediate sectors of the curve, with limited risk of a significant sell-off.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Kakao Pay Lockup Expiry – US$1bn Overhang from Alipay

By Sumeet Singh

  • Alipay will come out of its placement linked lockup for its remaining stake in Kakaopay (377300 KS) today.
  • Alipay (i.e. Alibaba Group (9988 HK)) had earlier sold some of its stake in Jun 2022 and Mar 2024. It still has over US$1bn worth of shares left to sell.
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Webtoon Entertainment, Nagatanien Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , Trip.com, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Golf Digest Online, Garrett Motion and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Webtoon Entertainment IPO Preview
  • Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP): Marunouchi Capital-Sponsored MBO at JPY3,100
  • Another Day Ending in Y, Another MBO Done Too Cheap. Today? Nagatanien (2899 JP).
  • China Consumption Weekly (3 Jun 2024): Alibaba, Alibaba Pictures, Li Auto, JD.com, JD Health
  • Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50
  • Only Seriousness of Shareholder Return Can Judge Change in Management in 1 Year After TSE’s Request
  • Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – 1Q FY24/12 Profits Down YoY Is Temporary
  • GTX: Ice Unfrozen


Webtoon Entertainment IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Webtoon Entertainment is getting ready to complete its IPO on the NASDAQ exchange in 2H 2024. Webtoon Entertainment is a subsidiary of Naver Corp (035420 KS).
  • Webtoon is seeking to raise as much of US$500 million at a valuation of US$3 billion to US$4 billion.
  • Webtoon Entertainment is one of the largest Korean company related IPOs in 2024. 

Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP): Marunouchi Capital-Sponsored MBO at JPY3,100

By Arun George

  • Nagatanien Holdings (2899 JP) recommended a Marunouchi Capital-sponsored MBO at JPY3,100, a 38.4% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The offer period is from 4 June to 16 July.
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer represents a five-year high and requires a 58% minority acceptance rate. This is a done deal with payment commencing from 23 July.  

Another Day Ending in Y, Another MBO Done Too Cheap. Today? Nagatanien (2899 JP).

By Travis Lundy

  • MitCorp – the largest shareholder – and the Nagatani family – today announced an MBO where they will buy a classic ubiquitous brand at an Adjusted EV of 5.4x EBITDA.
  • The equity check appears to buy at ~2.5x Mar27-29 average FCF but they probably have 50% of the shares in the bag. Retail, or who they sell to, matter.
  • There is room for a noisy activist to get involved here and disrupt the retail ownership. But there are very few of those around. And none in it now.

China Consumption Weekly (3 Jun 2024): Alibaba, Alibaba Pictures, Li Auto, JD.com, JD Health

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba Pictures’ revenue increased by 44% YoY and EBTIDA increased by 61% in the March quarter.
  • Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics network, plans to purchase fresh food from the places of origin.
  • Li Auto finished a round of layoff, in which headcount was reduced to 22,000 from 30,000.

Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins
  • We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing
  • After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view

Only Seriousness of Shareholder Return Can Judge Change in Management in 1 Year After TSE’s Request

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since companies with higher foreign ownership have better profitability and corporate governance practices, it can be inferred that the overseas investor engagement has improved the company’s profitability and corporate governance.
  • If the company’s management has changed to value-creating management through the overseas investor’s engagement, the company isn’t expected to change to value-creating management in just one year after “TSE’s request”.
  • Many companies that do not receive overseas investor engagement have more room for improvement in aspects of management strategy execution and will be evaluated over time for improvements in profitability.

Golf Digest Online (3319 JP) – 1Q FY24/12 Profits Down YoY Is Temporary

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Numerical targets for FY24/12 initial guidance are shown in the exhibit below.
  • Despite initial guidance for consolidated OP of ¥800mn, an increase of ¥420mn (+110.3% YoY), the Company cites conservatively forecasting non-operating and extraordinary items such as interest expenses, restructuring costs, and exchange rate fluctuations for initial guidance for ordinary profit break-even and a net loss of (¥600mn) for profit attributable to owners of parent (see P2).
  • Key initiatives and expectations for 2024 include: 1) in Japan, aim to provide more data-oriented and efficient services (online golf equipment sales GPM improving after 4Q inventory adjustment), 2) GOLFTEC golf lesson cash sales set to improve on coach issue addressed and marketing campaigns such as “7 shots better,” and 3) expand SkyTrak sales distribution channels. 

GTX: Ice Unfrozen

By Hamed Khorsand

  • In the month since GTX reported first quarter results, there have been more industry news pointing towards automobile models benefiting GTX. 
  • Automakers are indicating to using ICE and hybrid for longer than expected, which should contribute to GTX’s ability to generate free cash flow beyond the next couple of years.
  • We continue to expect 2024 sales to skew to the second half of the year, but GTX should generate adequate free cash flow to repurchase shares and reduce debt. 

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: BOC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: BOC, Petrochina, Li Auto, ICBC, Hkex
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 31st): BOC, CNOOC, ABC, Xiaomi, Petrochina
  • A-H Premium Weekly (May 31st): PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Huahong Semi
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 31st): Novatek, Asia Vital, Faraday Tech, Chunghwa Telecom
  • Northbound Flows (May 31st): Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 31st): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 31st): TSMC, Hon Hai, Yang Ming Marine, Novatek, Evergreen Marine
  • Screening for GEMs: June 2024


HK Short Interest Weekly: BOC, Petrochina, Li Auto, ICBC, Hkex

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 24th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in BOC, Petrochina, Li Auto, ICBC, Hkex.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 31st): BOC, CNOOC, ABC, Xiaomi, Petrochina

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 31st.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for BOC, CNOOC, Agricultural Bank Of China, Xiaomi Corporation, Petrochina.

A-H Premium Weekly (May 31st): PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Huahong Semi

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 107.4% as of May 31st.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by financials, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by information technology.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Huahong Semi, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (May 31st): Novatek, Asia Vital, Faraday Tech, Chunghwa Telecom

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of May 31st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD102.2bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Novatek, Asia Vital, Faraday Tech, Chunghwa Telecom, Ctbc Financial, Evergreen Marine, Mitac, Yang Ming Marine.

Northbound Flows (May 31st): Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 31st.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$860.8 million, led by consumer staples, financials, health care, and offset by information technology, materials, utilities.
  • We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Yangtze Power, Montage Technology, Moutai, CMB.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 31st): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of May 31st which has an aggregated holding worth USD515.2bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,106mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Sk Hynix, Doosan Enerbility, Hd Hyundai Elect, Samsung Electronics, Lg Chem, Samsung SDI.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (May 31st): TSMC, Hon Hai, Yang Ming Marine, Novatek, Evergreen Marine

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of May 31st which has an aggregated holding worth USD4,207.5bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD14,520mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Realtek Semi, Mediatek, Synnex Tech Intl, Asustek Computer, Tripod Tech, TSMC, Hon Hai, Yang Ming Marine, Novatek, Evergreen Marine.

Screening for GEMs: June 2024

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
  • The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
  • Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.

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Daily Brief ESG: Engagement Keeps Widening the Profitability Gap Between the Top and Bottom Companies in Market Cap and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Engagement Keeps Widening the Profitability Gap Between the Top and Bottom Companies in Market Cap


Engagement Keeps Widening the Profitability Gap Between the Top and Bottom Companies in Market Cap

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Companies with larger market capitalizations tend to have higher profitability and valuations, and those companies have higher foreign ownership.
  • Given that board practices improved and that valuations, highly correlated with foreign ownership, are higher for companies with larger market capitalizations, this can be due to engagement of overseas investors.
  • If this hypothesis is correct, the gap between the top and bottom market capitalization companies will widen further as it takes a certain time for engagement to pay off.

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Daily Brief Australia: Star Entertainment Group, APM Human Services and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)
  • Madison Dearborn Takes APM Back Into The Fold


Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)

By Travis Lundy

  • I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article from June 2022 shows.
  • The general gist: retail investors in Australia will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.
  • The portfolio worked well in April. Now we let April ride and add the May basket.

Madison Dearborn Takes APM Back Into The Fold

By David Blennerhassett

  • APM Human Services (APM AU) and US PE-outfit Madison Dearborn Partners, holding ~30%, have entered a Scheme at A$1.45/share, in cash.
  • That’s a 74.7% premium to undisturbed; and a $0.05/share increase over Madison Dearborn’s April 8th A$1.40/share NBIO, a price the Independent Board Committee (IBC) previously considered disappointing.
  • A scrip option is afforded, and Executive Chair, Megan Wynne and CEO, Michael Anghie will take up that option if the Scheme is implemented. The IBC is supportive. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Sell in May and Go Away? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Sell in May and Go Away?
  • Rampant Credit Growth Drives Recovery in Indian Banks Despite Lagging Deposit Growth
  • GEMWeekly (31 May 2024): Big Fund Sets up 3rd Chinese Chip Fund; China Macro, Naver, Flipkart, SEC
  • The Internet as You Know It Is Dying


Ohayo Japan | Sell in May and Go Away?

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Dow added around 575 points on Friday taking its gains for the month of May to end the month up 2.3%. The Nasdaq climbed 6.9%…what’s that old adage?  
  • SG Holdings announced a tender offer to acquire C&F Logistics Holdings at 5,740 yen per share, totaling around 123.7 billion yen ($788 million)
  • Dalton Investments proposed a management buyout to take Japanese broadcaster Fuji Media Holdings private

Rampant Credit Growth Drives Recovery in Indian Banks Despite Lagging Deposit Growth

By Raghav Chandra Mathur

  • Indian credit markets have been growing rapidly, with banks and non-bank financial institutions increasingly lending and servicing retail clients to meet the growing demand for retail loans from a population that has recovered strongly post Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Indian financial institutions are filling the retail financing gap so fast that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s central bank, has had to introduce new regulation to maintain financial stability in the Indian banking system. However, improvement in underlying fundamentals and roaring capital markets are driving large increases in bank balance sheets and valuations respectively.
  • Criat’s Credit Cycle Index (Criat CCI) for Indian banks has steadily improved more than 15bps since the middle of 2023, as the NIFTY Bank index reached new highs of INR 49,000.

GEMWeekly (31 May 2024): Big Fund Sets up 3rd Chinese Chip Fund; China Macro, Naver, Flipkart, SEC

By Wium Malan, CFA


The Internet as You Know It Is Dying

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.

  • I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.

  • Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.


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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone


Morning Views Asia: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (3rd June 2024) – Shift Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (3rd June 2024) – Shift Up, QuantumPharm, Telix, Sompo, ASMedia, Exedy, Barito, Zomato


ECM Weekly (3rd June 2024) – Shift Up, QuantumPharm, Telix, Sompo, ASMedia, Exedy, Barito, Zomato

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, we undertook a peer comparison and looked at valuations for Shift Up (462870 KS). 
  • On the placement front, it was another busy week with a number of blocks in India along with Asmedia Technology (5269 TT)‘s GDR offering and Exedy Corp (7278 JP)

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Ocean and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Ocean’s June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention


Hanwha Ocean’s June 22 Release of a 1.68% Stake Grabs Local Market Attention

By Sanghyun Park

  • The June 22 lock-up release, involving a 1.68% stake by Eximbank, is drawing attention, with concerns these shares might hit the market immediately, impacting prices significantly.
  • Eximbank is likely to sell its shares quickly post-lock-up, fueling speculation and potential market reactions, as their focus is on financial stability, not long-term holdings.
  • The 1.68% block deal could significantly impact Hanwha Ocean’s price, similar to last year’s 6.4% drop after a smaller block deal announcement by the Korean Financial Services Commission.

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