Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Anta Sports Products, Chokwang Leather, Tesla , Shimano Inc, Lululemon Athletica, ZEEKR, Fosun Tourism, Headlam, Meituan, Build A Bear Workshop and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Anta/Li Ning/Xtep:  China Sportswear 1Q24 Update
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #28: Chokwang Leather – A Cheaper Way to Invest in Berkshire Hathaway
  • Tesla’s Won’t Fix It’s Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge
  • Shimano (7309) | Stuck in a Low Gear
  • Why Lululemon Isn’t Under Armour
  • ZEEKR IPO Valuation Update: Likely To Price IPO Below Last Round Valuation of ~$13B
  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): A Long-Awaited Upturn
  • Headlam Group – Strategy for growth in tougher market
  • Meituan (3690 HK): Lack of Clear Topline Driver Remains a Concern
  • BBW: Snapping the Store: Adding to the Product Mix; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT


Anta/Li Ning/Xtep:  China Sportswear 1Q24 Update

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), and Xtep International (1368 HK) have announced 1Q24 operational updates, with additional color given in post conference calls. 
  • Anta: Retail sales started to accelerate in mid-March, and March were better than January and February. 
  • Li Ning:  offline retail sales down low-single-digit in 1Q24, driven by wholesale down mid-single-digit, while retail grew mid-single-digit.  E-commerce grew 20-30% yoy.  

Korea Small Cap Gem #28: Chokwang Leather – A Cheaper Way to Invest in Berkshire Hathaway

By Douglas Kim

  • At the end of 2023, Chokwang Leather owned 190.3 billion won worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares, which represents 56% of Chokwang Leather’s market cap. 
  • Chokwang Leather also has 3.1 million treasury shares (46.6% of outstanding shares). It has the highest levels of treasury shares as a percentage of outstanding shares among Korean stocks.
  • Chokwang Leather is likely to be one of the key companies to be targeted to improve its corporate governance as part of the Corporate Value Up program. 

Tesla’s Won’t Fix It’s Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge

By Vicki Bryan

  • Plunging sales & growing losses, severe price cuts & layoffs, failed FSD, M2 dropped for Robotaxi, and more, confirm that Elon Musk won’t fix Tesla’s most serious problems—which he created.
  • He still demands his “unfathomable” pay package be restored, and his feckless, captured Tesla Board is doing exactly what he wants.
  • But what Tesla’s Board should do, what it should have done years ago, is fire Elon Musk, the single greatest risk to Tesla’s future.

Shimano (7309) | Stuck in a Low Gear

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shimano continues to reel from a slowdown in bike and fishing tackle sales post Covid
  • 1Q operating profit beat the analyst consensus, but the upward revision to full year is minor and falls short of street estimates
  • The stock has priced in an improving outlook. However, valuations are now looking full compared to historical levels. 

Why Lululemon Isn’t Under Armour

By Investment Talk

  • On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&P 500.
  • Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.
  • This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.

ZEEKR IPO Valuation Update: Likely To Price IPO Below Last Round Valuation of ~$13B

By Andrei Zakharov

  • ZEEKR, a Chinese EV maker, plans to raise up to $500M in US IPO. The company put its offering on hold in 2023 due to a mismatch in valuation expectations.
  • A fast-growing company will offer ADSs, and the size of the company’s potential IPO is down from their initial target of up to $1B, a negative sign for ZEEKR shares.
  • EV stocks have significantly underperformed the broader market this year amid price wars, slow growth ahead and intense competition, especially in China.  

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): A Long-Awaited Upturn

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) saw a healthy 15.8% overall business volume growth in 1Q24, with net profit sustaining improvement. This should justify a catch-up in share price.
  • The cumulative bookings for Club Med for 1H24 have increased 13% YoY, while those for 2H24 have increased 10%. Positive forward bookings indicate an encouraging outlook.
  • Four new Club Med resorts to be opened in 2024 and the increase in attractiveness of Hainan after it turns into a duty-free island by 2025 are both drivers.   

Headlam Group – Strategy for growth in tougher market

By Edison Investment Research

Headlam Group has laid out an ambitious long-term revenue target of between £900m and £1bn, as it seeks to grow its share of the UK floor coverings distributor market. Despite a challenging backdrop due to the low level of residential housing transactions, management is seeking to expand each of its sales channels: Trade Counters, Larger Customers, Regional Distribution and Europe & Other. The FY23 results reflected the more challenging environment and the group trades at a discount to its long-term average EV/sales multiple for FY24.


Meituan (3690 HK): Lack of Clear Topline Driver Remains a Concern

By Eric Chen

  • Meituan has navigated through its most challenging period since IPO as competition moderates and reorg comes close to completion. 
  • 1Q results should kick off an upward earnings cycle through to the end of 2024 when the company’s efforts to revamp loss-making new initiative businesses gather pace. 
  • That said, lack of clear topline driver remains the key reason for our cautious view about the sustainability of re-rating. Maintain neutral.

BBW: Snapping the Store: Adding to the Product Mix; Reiterate Buy, $41 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $41 price target for Build-A-Bear Workshop after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut.
  • Post-Easter, Build-A-Bear has expanded the product mix both large and small, adding giant versions of key “furry friends” and rolling out new Mini Beans to drive incremental add-on purchases.
  • Further, with graduation season just starting (from pre-K to college), Build-A-Bear is ready with fun and unique items for every grad.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: J&T Global Express , Amvis Holdings Inc, Great Wall Motor, Pou Chen, Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial, Elite Commercial REIT, HMM Co., Ltd., Japan Post Holdings, Nidec Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry
  • Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side
  • RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming – This Changes AH Relationships
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update
  • Sichuan Baicha Baidao IPO Trading – Tepid Demand, While Peers Have Corrected
  • Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield
  • Find Out When HMM’s Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop
  • Japan Post Holdings Update (6178.JP)- Catalysts to Be Delivered
  • Nidec (6594) | More EV Losses
  • Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

By Arun George

  • J&T Global Express (1519 HK)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.
  • The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.
  • J&T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. 

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

By Travis Lundy

  • Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
  • This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider’s data, and one Very Large Flow.
  • I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 

RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming – This Changes AH Relationships

By Travis Lundy

  • A week after the State Council issued “Several Opinions” (关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》), the CSRC announced Friday five capital market cooperation measures with HK Connect. The goals are to increase cross-border investor flows.
  • They include: a broader range of ETFs in Connect, including REITs in both directions, include RMB counters in Southbound, improve mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong.
  • RMB Dual Counters Southbound-eligible will take time. They have some homework, but it is on the “To Do” list “as soon as possible and smoothly.” Watch impact on H/A Pairs.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun 24: LONGs up 6% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Time to Update

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2024 index rebal event.
  • Since my last insight, my index change expectations and flow expectations have changed significantly.
  • My latest estimate for one-way flow in June 2024 is US$1.06bn (down from US$1.22bn a month ago).

Sichuan Baicha Baidao IPO Trading – Tepid Demand, While Peers Have Corrected

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) (SBBI) raised around US$330m in its HK IPO.
  • SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market with a market share of 6.8% in FY23.
  • We have looked at the company’s performance and valuations in our past note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield we conducted a fireside chat with Elite Commercial REIT.
  • Elite Commercial REIT is a Singapore real estate investment trust established with the investment strategy of principally investing, directly or indirectly, in commercial real-estate related assets in the United Kingdom.
  • The company has recently expanded its strategy to look at other commercial assets in the UK, beyond its existing portfolio of assets rented by the UK government.

This Insight is part of the Smartkarma Corporate Webinar series, supported by SGX through the Investor Education Fund.


Find Out When HMM’s Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop

By Sanghyun Park

  • Despite this pattern persisting for years, there has still been a significant price impact each time it surfaces. Therefore, we should pay attention to the upcoming CB conversion schedule.
  • A consistent observation is that the price impact is most significant at the announcement of early redemption requests.
  • The anticipated announcement dates for the forthcoming early redemption requests are: around May 20th (195th conversion), around September 20th (196th conversion), and around March 20th of next year (197th conversion).

Japan Post Holdings Update (6178.JP)- Catalysts to Be Delivered

By Rikki Malik

  • Postal price hike approved  swinging the Post business from a loss to a profit
  • Cancellation of 7.36% of outstanding shares from the latest buyback
  • Management Plan to be released in May will provide further details on improving ROE and PB

Nidec (6594) | More EV Losses

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported a solid set of quarterly numbers, except for another huge structural loss in its EV business. 
  • Nidec saw sales growth and operating profitability improvements in all other segments
  • We continue to think that Nidec is attractively priced at under 20x EV/ EBIT given structural growth drivers

Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In this analysis, we provide a back testing analysis of the end of mandatory lock-up periods monthly data in Korea in the past six months.
  • All in all, this end of mandatory lock-up period monthly data continues to provide some alpha generating results.
  • In the past six months, they have tended to work better in periods when KOSPI declines rather than in periods when KOSPI rises. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ESG: Golden Egg Was Not Lost and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Golden Egg Was Not Lost, but How Long Can Keisei Electric Railway Buy Time?


Golden Egg Was Not Lost, but How Long Can Keisei Electric Railway Buy Time?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Until the “parent-subsidiary (affiliate) listing” is resolved, the value of parent company isn’t  usually reflected. If Keisei has some business interest in holding OLC shares, it’s responsible for explaining it.
  • If OLC shares were mostly sold, there’d be nothing left for Keisei, which couldn’t find strategy for using cash, so the decision of not losing the growing affiliate isn’t bad.
  • This small sale is to buy time until a clear growth strategy is found, but once the ratio of foreign shareholders exceeds 1/3, building time will likely become more difficult.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities


Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&P 500
  • Since late-February, we’ve discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
  • 4920-4950 is now support near last week’s lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Are Global Airlines Cooking Their Books? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Are Global Airlines Cooking Their Books?
  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Climb
  • Oncology Will Continue to Dominate
  • Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook


Are Global Airlines Cooking Their Books?

By Mark Jolley

  • Airlines are among biggest accounting manipulators worldwide, AI tool shows
  • Airlines are more assertively managing their accounting as they struggle to reinvigorate profits hurt by Covid-19 pandemic
  • Chinese, Asian carriers have highest risk scores for accounting manipulation

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Climb

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rallied on Tuesday with the Nasdaq Composite leading, up 1.6% on upbeat earnings. 
  • Speculation swirls on timing of next BOJ rate hike as policymakers gather for two-day meeting starting Thursday.
  • Mitsui joins a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in the UAE, investing in a $7 billion venture to produce 10 million tons annually, about 15% of Japan’s demand.

Oncology Will Continue to Dominate

By Avien Pillay

  • In 2022, there were 20 million new cancer cases, and almost half of the cases were recorded in Asia.
  • Global oncology spend is forecast to grow at 11.99% between 2023 and 2027, and this is expected to be almost three times faster than the growth of total pharma spend.
  • Emerging companies continue to make big strides in oncology drug development and made up 71% of the new drug pipeline in 2022.

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

By Raghav Chandra Mathur

  • The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.
  • The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.
  • The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Positives – Rapid Revenue Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Positives – Rapid Revenue Growth
  • Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Large Part of the Growth Stems from Its JV
  • ZEEKR IPO Valuation Update: Likely To Price IPO Below Last Round Valuation of ~$13B


Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Positives – Rapid Revenue Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are GS, MS and China Securities.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Large Part of the Growth Stems from Its JV

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are GS, MS and China Securities.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

ZEEKR IPO Valuation Update: Likely To Price IPO Below Last Round Valuation of ~$13B

By Andrei Zakharov

  • ZEEKR, a Chinese EV maker, plans to raise up to $500M in US IPO. The company put its offering on hold in 2023 due to a mismatch in valuation expectations.
  • A fast-growing company will offer ADSs, and the size of the company’s potential IPO is down from their initial target of up to $1B, a negative sign for ZEEKR shares.
  • EV stocks have significantly underperformed the broader market this year amid price wars, slow growth ahead and intense competition, especially in China.  

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Reliance Industries and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Reliance Industries


Morning Views Asia: Reliance Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: Find Out When HMM’s Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Find Out When HMM’s Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop
  • Tiantan (600161CH) To Acquire Weiguang (002880CH)- New King Rises in China’s Blood Products Industry


Find Out When HMM’s Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop

By Sanghyun Park

  • Despite this pattern persisting for years, there has still been a significant price impact each time it surfaces. Therefore, we should pay attention to the upcoming CB conversion schedule.
  • A consistent observation is that the price impact is most significant at the announcement of early redemption requests.
  • The anticipated announcement dates for the forthcoming early redemption requests are: around May 20th (195th conversion), around September 20th (196th conversion), and around March 20th of next year (197th conversion).

Tiantan (600161CH) To Acquire Weiguang (002880CH)- New King Rises in China’s Blood Products Industry

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Guangming District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau reached a cooperation agreement with China National Biotec to establish a joint venture, which will become the new controlling shareholder of Weiguang.
  • Since Tiantan is already Sinopharm’s subsidiary, there will be horizontal competition issue in the field of blood product business between Tiantan and Weiguang, mainly due to significant business overlap.
  • Some spin-offs and integrations are expected between Tiantan and Weiguang. As the reform of SOE enters a new stage, the two companies could end up very different.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield
  • Pasona (2168) – Tuesday, Jan 23, 2024
  • Anta/Li Ning/Xtep:  China Sportswear 1Q24 Update
  • Nidec (6594) | More EV Losses
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #28: Chokwang Leather – A Cheaper Way to Invest in Berkshire Hathaway
  • Lasertec (6920 JP): Further to Fall
  • Tesla’s Won’t Fix It’s Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge
  • Shimano (7309) | Stuck in a Low Gear
  • Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?
  • Why Lululemon Isn’t Under Armour


Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield we conducted a fireside chat with Elite Commercial REIT.
  • Elite Commercial REIT is a Singapore real estate investment trust established with the investment strategy of principally investing, directly or indirectly, in commercial real-estate related assets in the United Kingdom.
  • The company has recently expanded its strategy to look at other commercial assets in the UK, beyond its existing portfolio of assets rented by the UK government.

This Insight is part of the Smartkarma Corporate Webinar series, supported by SGX through the Investor Education Fund.


Pasona (2168) – Tuesday, Jan 23, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Pasona (2168.JP) is a long investment opportunity due to its ownership of a majority stake in Benefit One (2412.JP), which is the subject of a bidding war between M3 (2413.JP) and Dai-Ichi Life (8750.JP).
  • Potential bids for Benefit One could result in a significant cash windfall for Pasona, estimated at around 50% more than its current enterprise value, as well as an operating business valued at an additional 50% of its current EV.
  • With the founder of Pasona being 71 years old, the bidding war could lead to a management buy-out or a substantial return of capital program for the company.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Anta/Li Ning/Xtep:  China Sportswear 1Q24 Update

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), and Xtep International (1368 HK) have announced 1Q24 operational updates, with additional color given in post conference calls. 
  • Anta: Retail sales started to accelerate in mid-March, and March were better than January and February. 
  • Li Ning:  offline retail sales down low-single-digit in 1Q24, driven by wholesale down mid-single-digit, while retail grew mid-single-digit.  E-commerce grew 20-30% yoy.  

Nidec (6594) | More EV Losses

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported a solid set of quarterly numbers, except for another huge structural loss in its EV business. 
  • Nidec saw sales growth and operating profitability improvements in all other segments
  • We continue to think that Nidec is attractively priced at under 20x EV/ EBIT given structural growth drivers

Korea Small Cap Gem #28: Chokwang Leather – A Cheaper Way to Invest in Berkshire Hathaway

By Douglas Kim

  • At the end of 2023, Chokwang Leather owned 190.3 billion won worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares, which represents 56% of Chokwang Leather’s market cap. 
  • Chokwang Leather also has 3.1 million treasury shares (46.6% of outstanding shares). It has the highest levels of treasury shares as a percentage of outstanding shares among Korean stocks.
  • Chokwang Leather is likely to be one of the key companies to be targeted to improve its corporate governance as part of the Corporate Value Up program. 

Lasertec (6920 JP): Further to Fall

By Scott Foster

  • Lasertec has dropped more than 20% in the past week and a half, but is still selling at more than 60x EPS guidance for FY Jun-24.
  • Weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance from TSMC and doubts about Intel’s equipment purchases cast doubt on Lasertec’s growth potential.
  • Between December 2021 and June 2022, Lasertec’s share price dropped by more than 50%. Wait for Q3 results before reaching for a falling knife. 

Tesla’s Won’t Fix It’s Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge

By Vicki Bryan

  • Plunging sales & growing losses, severe price cuts & layoffs, failed FSD, M2 dropped for Robotaxi, and more, confirm that Elon Musk won’t fix Tesla’s most serious problems—which he created.
  • He still demands his “unfathomable” pay package be restored, and his feckless, captured Tesla Board is doing exactly what he wants.
  • But what Tesla’s Board should do, what it should have done years ago, is fire Elon Musk, the single greatest risk to Tesla’s future.

Shimano (7309) | Stuck in a Low Gear

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shimano continues to reel from a slowdown in bike and fishing tackle sales post Covid
  • 1Q operating profit beat the analyst consensus, but the upward revision to full year is minor and falls short of street estimates
  • The stock has priced in an improving outlook. However, valuations are now looking full compared to historical levels. 

Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?

By Andrew Lu

  • Again, Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons. 1. Gross margin was stable on 15% sales drop;
  • 2. ASP was stable; 3. Affordable EV on track for 2025; 4. Factory expansion to slow; 5. Optimus to sell end of 2025; 6. 2024 EV shipment higher than 2023.
  • Near term risks to remain: 1. When will margin trough? 2. Why bother to buy EV if 2nd hand market collapsing? 3. Will Robotaxi/FSD bring in meaningful sales/profits soon?

Why Lululemon Isn’t Under Armour

By Investment Talk

  • On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&P 500.
  • Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.
  • This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea
  • Asian Geopolitics: Despite Global Turbulence, Can Asia Enjoy Relative Calm?
  • Great Game: Despite New Aid, Ukraine will lose within 12 months. Plan Accordingly!
  • China Economics: Headwinds Remain Despite Rosy GDP Figures
  • Policy Tightness is Gradations of Weak
  • Bollinger Bonds
  • Singapore CPI Inflation 2.7% y-o-y (consensus 3.0%) in Mar-24
  • Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now


Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In this analysis, we provide a back testing analysis of the end of mandatory lock-up periods monthly data in Korea in the past six months.
  • All in all, this end of mandatory lock-up period monthly data continues to provide some alpha generating results.
  • In the past six months, they have tended to work better in periods when KOSPI declines rather than in periods when KOSPI rises. 

Asian Geopolitics: Despite Global Turbulence, Can Asia Enjoy Relative Calm?

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Despite trade and other frictions between Washington and Beijing, the two sides have set up mechanisms for regular high-level exchanges and other guard rails which reduce risks. 
  • However, as more big powers turn hawkish on defence and trade, other Asian exporters may end up being collateral damage from anti-China protectionism. 
  • Closer to home, the ongoing Myanmar conflict is reaching an imminent turning point as the risk of China getting involved increases and the fighting becomes more intense.

Great Game: Despite New Aid, Ukraine will lose within 12 months. Plan Accordingly!

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • With all eyes on the Middle East for the past weeks and months, we haven’t focused as much on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
  • In the big picture, not much has changes on the frontline despite continued heavy losses and a Russian election.
  • But now I think it’s time for investors to re-adjust their assessment of the war and consider contingencies for the path ahead.

China Economics: Headwinds Remain Despite Rosy GDP Figures

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • China’s first quarter growth of 5.3% comes amidst a slew of other positive data releases, including an improvement in fixed asset investments and a turnaround in net exports. 
  • But a closer examination suggests that momentum remains weak; the recovery was boosted by Lunar New Year spending, which showed signs of fading by March. 
  • Overcapacity and trade tensions remain major headwinds for any export-led recovery; even as property sector misery continues to dampen purchaser sentiment.  

Policy Tightness is Gradations of Weak

By Phil Rush

  • The PMIs mostly revealed surprise resilience in April, albeit with the US disappointing. Divergent surprises may reflect excessive spread changes in policy expectations.
  • Residual seasonality may exaggerate current strength and unwind in the summer, but stability in unemployment trends still suggests global monetary policy is not that tight.
  • Persistent excess demand requires tight conditions to be sustained. The BoE MPC seems desperate to cut, but resilience should delay it, including relative to Fed pricing.

Bollinger Bonds

By Mark Tinker

  • In our April monthly, we highlighted the combination of fading impulse for momentum stocks (principally tech) and the need for tax related selling in the trading/retail space coming against a background of a correction in the short term bull phase within the longer term bond bear market.
  • Since the beginning of March, US 10 year yields have gone from 4% to around 4.6%, unwinding the Fed Pivot language that emerged to ‘explain’ the earlier rally.

  • In our view that was an unlikely ex-post narrative, as is the one emerging now that the Fed will not cut at all.


Singapore CPI Inflation 2.7% y-o-y (consensus 3.0%) in Mar-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Singapore’s CPI inflation in March 2024 dropped to 2.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the market consensus of 3.0%, showing a significant moderation of price pressures.
  • The inflation rate is 1.34 percentage points below the one-year average.
  • This data highlights a persistent disinflationary trend in Singapore.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as usual will dive into positioning and sentiment data to provide you with the latest overview of crowded trades and where the markets are leaning.
  • This week we dig into how the rise of volatility (and volatility of volatility) has affected market positioning, if the recent weakness in equities has shaken around positioning (hint: it has) and the recent developments in rates pricing, where the outcome space for the DEC2024 SOFR contract has turned significantly more uniform in hawks’ favor.
  • The VIX recently woke up after a long period of being range-bound between 12.5 and 15, surging on the back of weakness in equities as tax payments have been due in April combined with a slightly hotter than expected CPI report and hawkish remarks from Powell.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars