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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): EU Real Estate Holds Steady Amidst Structural Slowdown and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • EU Real Estate Holds Steady Amidst Structural Slowdown
  • Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 08/03/2024
  • Lithium producers pump brakes on North American projects amid low prices


EU Real Estate Holds Steady Amidst Structural Slowdown

By Raghav Chandra Mathur

  • Europe’s Real Estate sector has been dealing with a protracted slowdown in growth and financing availability that has seen the industry battle rising borrowing and refinancing costs, increasing the repayment burden on Developers, REITs and Real Estate Services providers.
  • The downturn has been especially pertinent for the Real Estate Owners and Developers as they navigate the higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
  • However, this trend hasn’t been pervasive throughout the Euro Area.

Silicon Wafers Area Shipments Decline 14.3% YoY in 2023

By William Keating

  • Silicon wafers area shipments (in MSI) declined by 14.3% YoY in 2023
  • Wafer revenues also declined by 10.9% to $12.3 billion over the same period
  • We expect Q124 revenues to be down ~20% QoQ and anticipate a further 5% YoY decline in full year 2024 shipments

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 08/03/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; target price of NOK47 per share: Hibiscus South on stream at 5-6 mbbl/d – The Hibiscus South well has been put in production at a rate of 5-6 mbbl/d.
  • Once stabilized this should take production at Dussafu to ~30 mbbl/d.
  • Pulsar Helium (PLSR CN)C; target price of C$0.80 per share: High Helium concentration at high impact appraisal well – The Jetstream #1 appraisal well at the Topaz helium project in Minnesota encountered helium shows while drilling, with helium concentration of up to 12.4% according to the on-site spectrometer.

Lithium producers pump brakes on North American projects amid low prices

By Commodities Focus

  • Developers scrambled to advertise projects to potential investors in the US between 2021-2023
  • Prices for lithium reached all time highs due to impact of COVID on supply chains
  • Prices have since plunged nearing a three-year low, causing uncertainty for companies with viable projects and automakers scaling back EV production forecasts

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief ECM: Nippon Express (9147 JP): The Current Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Express (9147 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Classys: One of Korea’s Top Beauty Medical Device Makers + Higher Shares Cancellation and Dividends
  • Astera Labs IPO Valuation Update: Multiples Appear Rich, Limited Post-IPO Upside
  • Shanghai Zhida Technology Development Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Nippon Express (9147 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$260 million secondary placement announcement, Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP) shares are down 5.3% from the undisturbed price of JPY8,039 per share (1 March).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Nippon Express shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 11 March. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Classys: One of Korea’s Top Beauty Medical Device Makers + Higher Shares Cancellation and Dividends

By Douglas Kim

  • Classys is one of the top beauty medical device companies in Korea. Classys’ main products include Shurink Universe and Volnewmer.
  • We have a positive view of Classys (214150 KS). Classys is trading at relatively reasonable valuations, considering the company’s strong growth in sales and profits.
  • On 28 February, Classys announced a shareholder return amount of 38 billion won (including share cancellation of about 25 billion won and dividend payout of 13 billion won).

Astera Labs IPO Valuation Update: Multiples Appear Rich, Limited Post-IPO Upside

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Astera Labs, which offers connectivity solutions tailored for AI accelerators, GPUs, FPGAs and other high-performance computing platforms, announced terms for its IPO today.
  • California-Based semiconductor company plans to raise ~$392M by offering ~14.8M shares at a price range of $27 to $30. Selling stockholders offer ~3M shares of common stock in this IPO.  
  • At the midpoint of the proposed price range, Astera Labs would command a fully diluted market value of $5B, above their last private round of $3.15B.

Shanghai Zhida Technology Development Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Shanghai Zhida Technology Development Co Ltd (SZTD HK) is looking to raise about US$130m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Shenwan Hongyuan is the sole bookrunner.
  • Shanghai Zhida Technology Development (SZTD) is a provider of electric vehicle (EV) home charging solutions.
  • As per F&S, the firm was the world’s largest provider of EV home charging solutions in terms of sales volume of home EV chargers over its track record period.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Local Observations on Carlyle’s Possible Buyout of Hanon Systems and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Observations on Carlyle’s Possible Buyout of Hanon Systems
  • Eureka Group (EGH AU): Aspen’s Offer Is A Non-Starter
  • Iberdrola/Avangrid: Logical Move


Local Observations on Carlyle’s Possible Buyout of Hanon Systems

By Sanghyun Park

  • Carlyle’s renewed interest in acquiring Hanon Systems is evident from recent local market news, indicating outreach to bankers for a potential buyout, as confirmed by a local brokerage.
  • Carlyle eyes majority control of Hanon Systems, targeting 50.5% from Hahn & Co and 19.5% from Hankook Tire. Carlyle may extend a tender offer for the remaining 30%.
  • Still early stages; no solid info on deal certainty or specifics. Limited immediate trading opportunities, but worth monitoring as it progresses.

Eureka Group (EGH AU): Aspen’s Offer Is A Non-Starter

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 23 January, Aspen (APZ AU) improved its scrip terms to 0.26 Aspen shares per Eureka (EGH AU) share, up from 0.225 Aspen shares on the 2 March 2023.
  • Two weeks later, Eureka said they still had not received a formal Offer. Aspen has now released its Bidder’s Statement. Its Offer has a 50.1% acceptance condition.
  • Complicating the Offer was the recent disclosures from FDC Group that it held a 12.89% stake, preventing Aspen compulsory acquiring shares.

Iberdrola/Avangrid: Logical Move

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Iberdrola SA (IBE SM) launches a $34.25/share cash offer to acquire the minorities (18.4%) in its US subsidiary Avangrid (AGR US). Premium is 6.8%, and the cost c. $2.5 billion.
  • The market was awaiting this move since the cancellation of the PNM deal, which explains the recent rise in the share price of Avangrid.
  • Gross spread is 4.5%. It seems investors are buying in the hope of an offer sweetening, knowing that Iberdrola has some cash available to spend from the profitable Mexico exit.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Copper Is the New “GOLD”: India’s Rush for Rare Minerals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Copper Is the New “GOLD”: India’s Rush for Rare Minerals
  • Baidu Inc.: Are Its Investments In Gen AI and LLM Paying Off? – Major Drivers
  • Permian Resources Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – 5 Major Drivers
  • Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Zanidatamab’s Future Progression & 4 Other Drivers
  • Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?
  • Tokyo Electron (8035): Q3 FY03/24 Update
  • Skechers U.S.A.: Does The Recovery In Wholesale Orderbook Warrant A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers
  • Autodesk Inc.: Implementation of The New Transactional Model A Potential Game Changer? – Key Drivers
  • 3Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 Jp)
  • Monolithic Power Systems: Increasing Power Requirements for Newly Introduced AI Products Changing The Game! – Major Drivers


Copper Is the New “GOLD”: India’s Rush for Rare Minerals

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Copper, known as the “red metal” and vital in modern civilization, has seen a significant surge in demand globally, especially in sectors like electrical, electronics, construction, and transportation.
  • Global and Indian reserves of copper, use cases, production process and government push towards Copper mining and overall analysis of existing new entrants in the industry.
  • India possessing only 0.25% of the world’s reserves, the overall view from mining to distribution and consumption of copper across India and companies involved in the space.

Baidu Inc.: Are Its Investments In Gen AI and LLM Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The recent earnings of Baidu indicated solid performance for the fiscal year 2023.
  • An extremely neutral analysis reveals several positives.
  • The total revenue for Baidu Core’s total revenue for the year increased by 8% year-over-year, indicating strong financial resilience.

Permian Resources Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – 5 Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Permian Resources, a Delaware-based independent oil and natural gas company.
  • The company reported its Q4 and full-year 2023 earnings with significant growth and progress.
  • The company finished the year delivering industry-leading returns, exceeding both internal and external expectations.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Zanidatamab’s Future Progression & 4 Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jazz Pharmaceuticals reported a strong financial year in 2023, with overall revenues surpassing $3.8 billion.
  • This performance was primarily driven by the growth of key products in the company’s portfolio – Xywav, Epidiolex and Rylaze, which collectively accounted for a 27% year-over-year increase in revenue.
  • The company’s sleep therapeutic area contributed more than $1.9 billion in annual revenue, indicating a strong demand for its offerings given the high prevalence of sleep related disorders.

Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.
  • The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&A deal.
  • I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.

Tokyo Electron (8035): Q3 FY03/24 Update

By Shared Research

  • Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) is a global manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment (SPE).
  • In FY03/23, the company posted revenue of JPY2.2tn, operating profit of JPY617.7bn, recurring profit of JPY625.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY471.6bn.
  • Tokyo Electron Limited announced revisions to its full-year earnings forecast for FY03/24.

Skechers U.S.A.: Does The Recovery In Wholesale Orderbook Warrant A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Skechers ended the 2023 fiscal year on a high note, reaching an annual sales record of $8 billion, a $556 million increase compared to the prior year.
  • This milestone was the result of four quarterly sales records, including $1.96 billion for the fourth quarter.
  • The company also achieved an annual gross margin record of 51.9%.

Autodesk Inc.: Implementation of The New Transactional Model A Potential Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Autodesk demonstrated strong performance in the fourth quarter and full year results of fiscal 2024 with 14% constant currency revenue growth in Q4.
  • The report reflects Autodesk’s resilience and discipline manifested through its subscription business model, product diversification, and robust customer base.
  • The company’s diversified consumer base spans various regions and industries, enabling balanced growth.

3Q Follow-Up – Copro-Holdings (7059 Jp)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • COPRO-HOLDINGS. Co., Ltd., (COPRO) announced its 3Q FY24/3 (9 months) results.
  • Key consolidated figures included net sales of ¥17,496 mn (+28.8% YoY), operating profit of ¥1,406 mn (+63.0% YoY), ordinary profit of ¥ 1,480 mn (+70.8% YoY), and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥936 mn (+79.7% YoY).
  • COPRO-CONSTRUCTION. Co., Ltd., (formerly COPRO-ENGINEERED), which operates the Company‘s core business of construction technician dispatching, proactively increased the number of recruits amid the chronically serious shortage of labor against the backdrop of regulations capping overtime work to start in April 2024 and big construction projects. 

Monolithic Power Systems: Increasing Power Requirements for Newly Introduced AI Products Changing The Game! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Monolithic Power Systems (MPS) enters 2024 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, following a record revenue of $1.82 billion for the full year of 2023, marking its 12th consecutive year of revenue growth.
  • The highlights of MPS’ performance in 2023 were the consistent execution, continuous innovation, and robust customer focus.
  • However, the visibility beyond the current quarter remains limited due to uncertain customer ordering patterns reflecting overall economic uncertainty.

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Daily Brief Macro: After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?
  • The Weekly Market Monitor – These Two All-Time Highs Are No Coincidence!
  • Portfolio Watch: Sea of cyclical green


After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?

By Pranay Yadav

  • BTC tailwinds remain strong with strong ETF demand driving spot buying. 
  • Volatile price action last week caused sharp liquidations and flushed leverage from BTC markets, since then, BTC has traded in a narrowing range
  • During periods of consolidation, BTC/ETH spread has favored ETH and during sharp moves, it has favored BTC. 

The Weekly Market Monitor – These Two All-Time Highs Are No Coincidence!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Bitcoin AND gold made new all-time highs, which is by no means a coincidence. Gold’s market cap is now over USD 16 trillion, which is important for two reasons.
  • The Fed has multiple reasons to cut rates even though GDP growth is resilient, including bank defaults, the commercial real estate crisis, and evaporating liquidity.
  • The ECB should cut rates, too; it runs the risk of getting in on the action too late.

Portfolio Watch: Sea of cyclical green

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

  • Welcome to our latest edition of Portfolio Watch, our weekly deep-dive into prevailing market trends and our portfolio strategies.
  • In this updated iteration of our series, we’ll explore the latest updates in both our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.
  • Additionally, we’re excited to announce that we’re just about ready to introduce to you our quantitative portfolio.

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Daily Brief Australia: Eureka Group Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Eureka Group (EGH AU): Aspen’s Offer Is A Non-Starter


Eureka Group (EGH AU): Aspen’s Offer Is A Non-Starter

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 23 January, Aspen (APZ AU) improved its scrip terms to 0.26 Aspen shares per Eureka (EGH AU) share, up from 0.225 Aspen shares on the 2 March 2023.
  • Two weeks later, Eureka said they still had not received a formal Offer. Aspen has now released its Bidder’s Statement. Its Offer has a 50.1% acceptance condition.
  • Complicating the Offer was the recent disclosures from FDC Group that it held a 12.89% stake, preventing Aspen compulsory acquiring shares.

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Daily Brief Singapore: BRC Asia Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • kopi-C with BRC Asia’s CEO: “We’ve become the leader in Singapore’s reinforcing steel fabrication industry”


kopi-C with BRC Asia’s CEO: “We’ve become the leader in Singapore’s reinforcing steel fabrication industry”

By Geoff Howie

  • kopi-C with BRC Asia’s CEO: “We’ve become the leader in Singapore’s reinforcing steel fabrication industry’” After becoming one of Singapore’s largest reinforcing steel fabricators through an acquisition, BRC Asia plans to extend its reach to other markets.
  • Incorporated in 1938, BRC Asia Limited (“BRC”) is a leading Pan-Asia prefabricated reinforcing steel solutions provider headquartered in Singapore and listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange.

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Daily Brief India: Hindustan Copper and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Copper Is the New “GOLD”: India’s Rush for Rare Minerals


Copper Is the New “GOLD”: India’s Rush for Rare Minerals

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Copper, known as the “red metal” and vital in modern civilization, has seen a significant surge in demand globally, especially in sectors like electrical, electronics, construction, and transportation.
  • Global and Indian reserves of copper, use cases, production process and government push towards Copper mining and overall analysis of existing new entrants in the industry.
  • India possessing only 0.25% of the world’s reserves, the overall view from mining to distribution and consumption of copper across India and companies involved in the space.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanon Systems, Classys and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Local Observations on Carlyle’s Possible Buyout of Hanon Systems
  • Classys: One of Korea’s Top Beauty Medical Device Makers + Higher Shares Cancellation and Dividends


Local Observations on Carlyle’s Possible Buyout of Hanon Systems

By Sanghyun Park

  • Carlyle’s renewed interest in acquiring Hanon Systems is evident from recent local market news, indicating outreach to bankers for a potential buyout, as confirmed by a local brokerage.
  • Carlyle eyes majority control of Hanon Systems, targeting 50.5% from Hahn & Co and 19.5% from Hankook Tire. Carlyle may extend a tender offer for the remaining 30%.
  • Still early stages; no solid info on deal certainty or specifics. Limited immediate trading opportunities, but worth monitoring as it progresses.

Classys: One of Korea’s Top Beauty Medical Device Makers + Higher Shares Cancellation and Dividends

By Douglas Kim

  • Classys is one of the top beauty medical device companies in Korea. Classys’ main products include Shurink Universe and Volnewmer.
  • We have a positive view of Classys (214150 KS). Classys is trading at relatively reasonable valuations, considering the company’s strong growth in sales and profits.
  • On 28 February, Classys announced a shareholder return amount of 38 billion won (including share cancellation of about 25 billion won and dividend payout of 13 billion won).

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Daily Brief United States: Astera Labs , Avangrid , Permian Resources , Karuna Therapeutics Inc, Skechers Usa Inc Cl A, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc, Jm Smucker Co, Nutanix Inc, Autodesk Inc, Culp Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Astera Labs IPO Valuation Update: Multiples Appear Rich, Limited Post-IPO Upside
  • Iberdrola/Avangrid: Logical Move
  • Permian Resources Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – 5 Major Drivers
  • Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?
  • Skechers U.S.A.: Does The Recovery In Wholesale Orderbook Warrant A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers
  • Monolithic Power Systems: Increasing Power Requirements for Newly Introduced AI Products Changing The Game! – Major Drivers
  • The J. M. Smucker Company: Initiation Of Coverage – Core Business Strategy & 5 Key Performance Drivers – Financial Forecasts
  • Nutanix Inc.: What Are The 3 Biggest Challenges On Its Path? – Major Drivers
  • Autodesk Inc.: Implementation of The New Transactional Model A Potential Game Changer? – Key Drivers
  • Culp, Inc. – Lower Near-Term Expectations; Culp Likely to Restructure


Astera Labs IPO Valuation Update: Multiples Appear Rich, Limited Post-IPO Upside

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Astera Labs, which offers connectivity solutions tailored for AI accelerators, GPUs, FPGAs and other high-performance computing platforms, announced terms for its IPO today.
  • California-Based semiconductor company plans to raise ~$392M by offering ~14.8M shares at a price range of $27 to $30. Selling stockholders offer ~3M shares of common stock in this IPO.  
  • At the midpoint of the proposed price range, Astera Labs would command a fully diluted market value of $5B, above their last private round of $3.15B.

Iberdrola/Avangrid: Logical Move

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Iberdrola SA (IBE SM) launches a $34.25/share cash offer to acquire the minorities (18.4%) in its US subsidiary Avangrid (AGR US). Premium is 6.8%, and the cost c. $2.5 billion.
  • The market was awaiting this move since the cancellation of the PNM deal, which explains the recent rise in the share price of Avangrid.
  • Gross spread is 4.5%. It seems investors are buying in the hope of an offer sweetening, knowing that Iberdrola has some cash available to spend from the profitable Mexico exit.

Permian Resources Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – 5 Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Permian Resources, a Delaware-based independent oil and natural gas company.
  • The company reported its Q4 and full-year 2023 earnings with significant growth and progress.
  • The company finished the year delivering industry-leading returns, exceeding both internal and external expectations.

Karuna Therapeutics: Is The Bidding Battle Underway?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • In December 2023, American multinational pharmaceutical company Bristol Myers Squibb has agreed to acquire Karuna Therapeutics for $330 per share in cash, implying a total equity value of $14B.
  • The special meeting of Karuna’s shareholders to be held on March 12, 2023, to consider and vote on various proposals necessary to approve upcoming M&A deal.
  • I expect the bidding battle among big pharma to acquire Karuna Therapeutics and its valuable pipeline of transformative medicines to treat schizophrenia and psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease.

Skechers U.S.A.: Does The Recovery In Wholesale Orderbook Warrant A Bullish Thesis? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Skechers ended the 2023 fiscal year on a high note, reaching an annual sales record of $8 billion, a $556 million increase compared to the prior year.
  • This milestone was the result of four quarterly sales records, including $1.96 billion for the fourth quarter.
  • The company also achieved an annual gross margin record of 51.9%.

Monolithic Power Systems: Increasing Power Requirements for Newly Introduced AI Products Changing The Game! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Monolithic Power Systems (MPS) enters 2024 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, following a record revenue of $1.82 billion for the full year of 2023, marking its 12th consecutive year of revenue growth.
  • The highlights of MPS’ performance in 2023 were the consistent execution, continuous innovation, and robust customer focus.
  • However, the visibility beyond the current quarter remains limited due to uncertain customer ordering patterns reflecting overall economic uncertainty.

The J. M. Smucker Company: Initiation Of Coverage – Core Business Strategy & 5 Key Performance Drivers – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on food and beverage major, J. M. Smucker.
  • In its 3rd quarter earnings for fiscal year 2024, J. M. Smucker Company (Smucker) effectively outlined promising growth indicators across its portfolio, validated the strategic maneuvering of its product mix, and reaffirmed confidence in its forecasting.
  • On the surface, company executives displayed a marginal optimism, with the company reporting 6% comparable sales growth.

Nutanix Inc.: What Are The 3 Biggest Challenges On Its Path? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Over the quarter, Nutanix reported record revenue of $565 million, which surpassed guidance expectations, as well as an impressive annual recurring revenue (ARR) increment of 26% YoY reaching $1.74 billion.
  • Besides solid financial performance, the company also accomplished its first GAAP operating profitability in Q2 which showcased the effective workings of their subscription model.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Autodesk Inc.: Implementation of The New Transactional Model A Potential Game Changer? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Autodesk demonstrated strong performance in the fourth quarter and full year results of fiscal 2024 with 14% constant currency revenue growth in Q4.
  • The report reflects Autodesk’s resilience and discipline manifested through its subscription business model, product diversification, and robust customer base.
  • The company’s diversified consumer base spans various regions and industries, enabling balanced growth.

Culp, Inc. – Lower Near-Term Expectations; Culp Likely to Restructure

By Water Tower Research

  • We are cutting estimates on Culp, responding to weak demand, and bracing for a restructuring in 4QFY24.
  • Culp’s 3QFY24 earnings report, issued Wednesday after the close, highlighted improved revenue and operating results, Y/Y and sequentially.
  • Consolidated sales were $60.4 million, up 15% Y/Y and 3% sequentially, aided by a calendar shift in the Chinese New Year from 3Q to 4Q.

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