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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Bangladesh Stock Picks | Quarterly Updates | OLYMPI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Bangladesh Stock Picks | Quarterly Updates | OLYMPI, SQTT, BPML
  • FedEx (FDX US, BUY, TP:$299): 2QFY24 Will Shed Light on E-Commerce Resurgence
  • Global Exchanges – Japan Exchange Is Our 2024 High Conviction Call
  • HCG: Scaling Up Well | On Track for a Solid FY25
  • XPER: The Sense Behind the Cents
  • The Brunner Investment Trust – Strong performance record vs benchmark and peers
  • The Merchants Trust – UK equity valuations providing many opportunities
  • Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. – 2QFY24 Results: Revenue Increases 193%


Bangladesh Stock Picks | Quarterly Updates | OLYMPI, SQTT, BPML

By Pranav Bhavsar


FedEx (FDX US, BUY, TP:$299): 2QFY24 Will Shed Light on E-Commerce Resurgence

By Mohshin Aziz

  • FedEx Corp (FDX US) (FedEx) will release its 2QFY24 results on 19 Dec after market close. Closely watched as it is the bellwether for global trade and commerce  
  • Cost reduction initiatives has delivered, and resurgence in e-commerce activities across Asia Pacific could potentially provide positive earnings surprise    
  • Target price US$299 (7% UPSIDE) based on 15x CY2024 PE (FedEx’s historical mean). Our recommendation is to give FedEx a miss, too little upside for the risk 

Global Exchanges – Japan Exchange Is Our 2024 High Conviction Call

By Victor Galliano

  • We rate Japan Exchange as our 2024 high conviction buy in exchanges, for its attractive valuations, as well as its potential for increased market activity and big data revenue growth
  • We believe that Japan Exchange is the exception to the rule that DM exchanges need to diversify their revenue bases, as it is under less de-regulatory pressure
  • We also stick with Hong Kong Exchange as the deep value pick, as well as Deutsche Borse; we remain negative on Coinbase

HCG: Scaling Up Well | On Track for a Solid FY25

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HCG reported a strong Q2FY4 with revenue growth of 16% YoY and 5.7% QoQ. EBITDA margin expanded 120bp QoQ to reach 17.8%.
  • Emerging centers are scaling up well with revenue growing at 29% YoY in Q2FY24. Matured centers’ revenue also grew at a healthy pace of 13% YoY.
  • HCG is continuing to upgrade infrastructure of existing hospitals. It added 3 robotic surgery machines across 3 centers. It operationalized 4 new LINACs and plans to install six more LINACs. 

XPER: The Sense Behind the Cents

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER is streamlining its operations by divesting its AutoSense and image sensing product lines to strategically refocus on the burgeoning entertainment sector
  • XPER is selling AutoSense and the image sensor business to Tobii for $42.7 million plus a performance fee
  • XPER estimates revenue loss from the divesture would be approximately $30 million with adjusted EBITDA moving up

The Brunner Investment Trust – Strong performance record vs benchmark and peers

By Edison Investment Research

The Brunner Investment Trust (BUT) has two co-managers, Christian Schneider (CIO global growth) and Julian Bishop (global growth specialist), who are supported by deputy managers Simon Gergel (CIO UK equities, UK dividend and value specialist) and James Ashworth (global growth specialist). BUT may be considered as a ‘fund for all seasons’ given its steady outperformance in recent years in widely different market environments. The trust’s NAV performance also stands out positively compared with its 12 peers in the AIC Global sector, ranking first over the last three years, second over the last five and fourth over one year. BUT’s dual mandate of both income and capital growth and its straightforward portfolio of listed global equities may be an ideal way for investors to gain exposure to overseas companies.


The Merchants Trust – UK equity valuations providing many opportunities

By Edison Investment Research

The Merchants Trust (MRCH) manager, Simon Gergel at Allianz Global Investors, has been at the helm for the last 17 years during a variety of market environments. He has remained true to his investment process, seeking high-quality companies with solid fundamentals that are trading on reasonable valuations. The manager is very encouraged by the current valuation backdrop as, in aggregate, the UK market is trading at the low end of its 20-year range and within the market there is a wide dispersion of valuation multiples. A large proportion of UK stocks, including those of quality businesses, are trading on forward P/E multiples of less than 10x, providing Gergel with a large pond in which to fish. His approach has proved successful with mid- and long-term outperformance of MRCH’s broad UK market benchmark. With the trust’s dual mandate of income and capital growth, it offers an attractive 5.2% dividend yield and has grown its annual dividends for the last 41 consecutive years.


Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. – 2QFY24 Results: Revenue Increases 193%

By Water Tower Research

  • Ocean Power Technologies reported 2QFY24 revenue of $0.9 million, up 193% Y/Y from $0.3 million in 2QFY23, driven by sales of WAM-V autonomous vehicles, the contract with the Department of Energy (DOE), and an increase in strategic consulting services.
  • The previous quarter had revenue of $0.2 million from leased boats.
  • The company reported 2QFY24 gross profit of $0.5 million, compared with a profit of $39,000 in 2QFY23.

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Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 15 Dec 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 15 Dec 2023


Weekly Wrap – 15 Dec 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. NagaCorp Ltd
  2. China Jinmao Holdings
  3. Hopson Development
  4. Greentown China
  5. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)

and more…


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One
  • Investigating Float Rate Issues of Ecopro Materials & Doosan Robotics for Global Index Feb Review
  • Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Conditional Voluntary Offer at HK$23.50
  • MBK Partners Raises Tender Offer Price of Hankook and Co to 24,000 Won


StubWorld: LVS To Up Stake In Sands. Melco Back To Square One

By David Blennerhassett


Investigating Float Rate Issues of Ecopro Materials & Doosan Robotics for Global Index Feb Review

By Sanghyun Park

  • With recent surges in EcoPro Materials and Doosan Robotics, it’s crucial for their potential inclusion in the February Global Index review. No other names approach the threshold.
  • Depending on classification, Ecopro Materials may get a free-float rate from 15% to 20%, while Doosan Robotics may receive a rate from 20% to 30%.
  • With max free-float rates (20% and 30%), both meet Cutoffs. At minimum rates, Doosan Robotics needs over a 20% increase, while Ecopro Materials slightly exceeds Cutoffs.

Vinda International (3331 HK): Pre-Conditional Voluntary Offer at HK$23.50

By Arun George

  • Vinda International (3331 HK) has announced a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Sukanto Tanoto at HK$23.50 per scheme share, a 7.8% premium to the undisturbed price (26 April). 
  • The pre-condition relates to China SAMR and Japan Fair Trade Commission approval. The offer is conditional on the offeror and concert parties representing more than 50% of voting rights.
  • Irrevocables ensure the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition but also rule out a competing proposal. The timing of China SAMR approval is the key risk. 

MBK Partners Raises Tender Offer Price of Hankook and Co to 24,000 Won

By Douglas Kim

  • After market close on 15 December, MBK Partners raised the tender offer price of Hankook & Company by 20% to 24,000 won, which is now 51.4% higher than current price. 
  • With Cho Yang-Rae’s recent acquisition of shares, Cho Hyun-beom, Cho Yang-rae, and related parties now own about 45.6% of Hankook & Co, up from 42.9% previously. 
  • MBK Partners has requested an official investigation by the FSS, claiming that Cho Yang-rae and HY have violated the Capital Markets Act by recently purchasing shares of Hankook & Co.

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Daily Brief Macro: Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings
  • Portfolio Changes – Fed Exuberance = Equities Neutral, Long Bitcoin
  • Myanmar Faces Prolonged Conflict as Civil War Intensifies
  • The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There’s Jay Powell!
  • Regional Politics: Turning Points in Global and Asian Politics Loom in 2024
  • CX Daily: What China’s New Capital Rules Mean for Banks
  • Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game
  • Economists See China Focusing More on Growth Next Year After Key Meeting


Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings

By Pranay Yadav

  • European banks opted to hold rates steady and their statements were more dovish than the Fed. ECB and BoE statements suggested rates would need to stay elevated for some time. 
  • EU and UK economies are slowing sharply which draws concerns over how long rates can stay elevated without their economies tilting into recession.
  • UK and EU equities reacted negatively to the announcements while commodities rallied. Bond markets were largely unchanged. EUR and GBP outperformed JPY after the announcements while DXY fell further. 

Portfolio Changes – Fed Exuberance = Equities Neutral, Long Bitcoin

By Jeroen Blokland

  • We have lifted the weight of Developed and Emerging Market Equities to Neutral and raise Bitcoin to Overweight.
  • The catalyst for these portfolio decisions is the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dominant market driver being the combination of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a soft landing, and ample liquidity.
  • Bitcoin is also one of the beneficiaries of growing worries about the speed of debt accumulation. In addition, the impact of US spot Bitcoin ETFs may drive Bitcoin’s price higher.

Myanmar Faces Prolonged Conflict as Civil War Intensifies

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The junta in Naypyidaw faces its most serious challenge from the ongoing Operation 1027, where a coalition of ethnic militias has inflicted major setbacks on the army.  
  • Poor morale and defections are hampering the military’s response against the insurgents. Beijing also shows signs of hedging its bets, providing limited tacit support to the rebels. 
  • Given the balance of power, our baseline case is that the fighting is prolonged throughout most of 2024. A collapse of the junta is plausible but should not be assumed.

The Weekly Market Monitor – China Caves, Liquidity Flows, and There’s Jay Powell!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • China is providing massive amounts of liquidity to finally solve its ongoing real estate recession. At a time when liquidity in other parts of the world is also rising.
  • The UK economy has not grown in the past nine months, and France is saying ‘au revoir’ to its manufacturing sector.
  • Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has never been so deep in Frenzy territory. Yet, the other key sentiment indicator – 200-day moving averages – looks prettier every day.

Regional Politics: Turning Points in Global and Asian Politics Loom in 2024

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Elections in Taiwan and the US will shape the dynamics of US-China competition. Anti-incumbent sentiment is currently strong in both contests.  
  • In India and Indonesia, incumbent governments (or their proxies) will seek a further term. The results will determine whether status quo economic and foreign policy is maintained.  
  • Other countries in the region such as Thailand, Singapore, and Japan may also see changes in leadership depending on local political dynamics.

CX Daily: What China’s New Capital Rules Mean for Banks

By Caixin Global

  • Capital / In Depth: What China’s new capital rules mean for banks
  • China-France /: ‘We are willing to build a balanced relationship’ with China, France’s top diplomat says

  • Bonds/: Local governments tap $29 billion special bonds to fund smaller banks

Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

By Emil Moller

  • As we wrap up the last Central Bank week of the year, it’s safe to say that the market hasn’t provided much incentive to conclude the celebratory spirit that started in November before the New Year.
  • Powell’s press conference and the FOMC dot plot have continued to push interest rates lower and inject more USD liquidity into global markets.
  • Risk assets have enthusiastically embraced this liquidity boost, even though John Williams’s recent attempts to temper the euphoria by clarifying that the Fed is not currently discussing rate cuts.

Economists See China Focusing More on Growth Next Year After Key Meeting

By Caixin Global

  • China’s top policymakers emphasized economic growth and signaled stronger fiscal support when they met Monday and Tuesday to chalk out plans for the world’s second-largest economy in the coming year.
  • Policymakers at the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) called for “efforts to pursue progress while ensuring stability” in 2024, according to a readout published by the state-run Xinhua News Agency.
  • The conference took place in Beijing and was attended by top leaders, including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Toyo Construction, INOX India Limited, Severfield PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Whitebox Goes Activist on Samsung C&T
  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected
  • Inox India IPO – Offering Access to a Niche Sector
  • Severfield – FY24 expectations unchanged, order book robust


Whitebox Goes Activist on Samsung C&T

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 December, it was reported that US based Whitebox Advisors has started an activist campaign on Samsung C&T (028260 KS).
  • Whitebox estimates that Samsung C&T’s stock price is about 68% undervalued compared to its NAV.
  • In addition to Whitebox, there are two other foreign investors including Palliser Capital and City of London Investment Management that have requested Samsung C&T to improve corporate governance.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected

By Arun George

  • The Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board has opposed YFO’s potential tender offer price of JPY1,255 per share but has kept the door open for an improved offer. 
  • YFO is running out of options as a YFO candidate-heavy special committee opposed its proposal, and the share price is trading through terms. 
  • YFO has three options: a hostile offer at an unchanged price, an improved price, or exit its position. Each option has issues suggesting a lack of short-term share price support.  

Inox India IPO – Offering Access to a Niche Sector

By Ethan Aw

  • INOX India Limited (INOX IN) is looking to raise up to US$175m in its Indian IPO.
  • Inox India is a manufacturer of cryogenic equipment. As per CRISIL, the firm was the largest Indian exporter of cryogenic tanks in terms of FY23 sales.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s background. In this note, we talk about the company’s performance and share our quick thoughts on valuation.

Severfield – FY24 expectations unchanged, order book robust

By Edison Investment Research

Severfield’s H124 results highlighted profit growth despite declining revenue, and management continues to expect full-year results to be in line with previous guidance. The total order book has also remained at elevated levels despite the loss of a large studio contract, highlighting the quality of future work in the UK and Europe, and that it is a key indicator of future earnings visibility. The FY24e P/E rating of 7.0x is comfortably below the long-term average of c 10x, implying some risk is discounted in the rating. The stock yields nearly 6%, which is an added attraction.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Hunan Changyuan Lico, Rubicon Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Mar 24: Four High-Impact Changes Likely; Some Interesting Trade Ideas
  • ArborGen Holdings – Mixed trading, but solid long-term growth outlook


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Mar 24: Four High-Impact Changes Likely; Some Interesting Trade Ideas

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the March 2024 index rebal event.
  • There could be up to four index changes. Some of these are high-conviction changes and some are low-conviction changes.

ArborGen Holdings – Mixed trading, but solid long-term growth outlook

By Edison Investment Research

ArborGen’s H124 results highlighted contrasting trading conditions with challenges in the US offset by a strong performance from Brazil. However, despite the short-term issues, ArborGen remains in prime position to address increasing demand for its seedlings and to continue investment in genetic improvement to drive the switch to sales of higher-value, higher-margin seedlings in both markets. While this process plays out, underlying EBIT is set to increase fivefold in the next two years as we expect gross margins to return to and then exceed historical levels. However, the recent US weakness has led us to trim our DCF valuation from NZ$0.49/share to NZ$0.44, still implying material upside.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Shinko Electric Industries, Sea , yutori , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Advanced Micro Devices, Heroz Inc, Ebay Inc, Soluna Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover:  Initial Break/Gap Risk Analysis
  • Sea Ltd: TikTok’s Tokopedia Deal and Lazada’s Financial Boost Raise Concerns
  • Zozo-Owned Yutori IPO This Month
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at an Extreme; ASE Dropping Lower and Lower
  • AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?
  • Heroz (4382 JP) – Growing Evidence of Positive Transformation
  • Ebay’s Qoo10 More than Doubles Users to 23 Million in 5 Years
  • Soluna Holdings, Inc. – Soluna Positioned for Revenue/EBITDA Growth in 2024 as New Projects Ramp


Shinko Electric (6967) Takeover:  Initial Break/Gap Risk Analysis

By Travis Lundy

  • The JIC Deal for Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) has been announced and is, as expected, trading wide. 
  • There is FUD. There are Flows. Just like JSR (4185). Some of that FUD can be explained by “gap risk” on deal break…. or can it? We look at risks.
  • There’s more positioning risk than fundamental risk at this point. And the FUD and Flows have specific timing in this case which makes thing different than JSR. Worth thinking about.

Sea Ltd: TikTok’s Tokopedia Deal and Lazada’s Financial Boost Raise Concerns

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • There have been several developments in the Southeast Asian e-commerce space over the past few days that we believe will have a negative impact on Sea (SE US)’s financial performance.
  • A few days ago, TikTok, owned by ByteDance (1439927D CH), announced a $1.5bn investment in Tokopedia.
  • Today, Nikkei reported that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has infused an additional $634m into Lazada, its Southeast Asia e-commerce unit, to enhance its competitive position in the face of escalating competition.

Zozo-Owned Yutori IPO This Month

By Michael Causton

  • Zozo may lead in online fashion malls but its customer base, while young, is getting older.
  • In 2020, it acquired a majority stake in Yutori, a fledgling fashion mall targeting the young, which will now list this month.
  • Yutori has grown sales to ¥2.47 billion since launching five years ago. As well as Japan, it sees a major opportunity across Asia given Japanese street fashion popularity there.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium at an Extreme; ASE Dropping Lower and Lower

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: 10.4% Premium — Decent Level to Short the Spread At
  • ASE: 6.2% Premium — Wait for 5% as the Level to Go Long the Spread
  • UMC: Trading at 0.8% — Wait for 1.5% or Higher

AMD. With FY23 Revenues Set to Fall ~4% YoY, Is The Party Over?

By William Keating

  • AMD’s resurgence against a dominant Intel saw the company grow annual revenues >4x between 2017 and 2022
  • FY 2023 revenue is likely to be down roughly $1 billion or ~4% YoY.
  • We expect a combination of renewed Data Center market share growth plus a grand entrance into the AI acceleration segment will restart the party all over again in 2024. 

Heroz (4382 JP) – Growing Evidence of Positive Transformation

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Strong execution on multiple fronts – Q1-2 FY4/2024 results were ahead of expectations, with sales growth of 205.2% YoY and operating profit growth of 572.1% YoY.
  • Whilst acquisitive growth was to be expected, HEROZ has also demonstrated 1) organic growth in its AI/DX Service with underlying sales growth of 14.6% YoY,
  • 2) increased the proportion of recurring revenue to 62.4% of total sales and thereby continuing to improve earnings visibility

Ebay’s Qoo10 More than Doubles Users to 23 Million in 5 Years

By Michael Causton

  • Qoo10 has been quietly growing its share of the Japanese e-commerce market. 
  • Despite relentless competition from the big 3, Qoo10 has managed to increase members from 10 million in 2018 to 23 million through event marketing and close attention to customer demands.
  • While cosmetics and fashion are the current focus, Qoo10 is also strengthening other categories like food, stationery and electronics.

Soluna Holdings, Inc. – Soluna Positioned for Revenue/EBITDA Growth in 2024 as New Projects Ramp

By Water Tower Research

  • CEO John Belizaire joined WTR’s Tim Regan and Graham Mattison to talk about Soluna’s impressive business turnaround in 2023, including the projects that are online today and their growing adjusted EBITDA contributions.
  • Belizaire also talked about new projects under development, incremental revenue sources, and the company’s recently announced AI pilot at Project Dorothy
  • 2023 – the turnaround of Soluna. Belizaire talked about the transformation of the company in 2023, coming from the depths of the crypto winter and regulatory delays, to bringing the company’s flagship Project Dorothy online, securing partners at the project level, and then being selected for the 166-MW Project Kati.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Toyo Construction, INOX India Limited, Severfield PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Whitebox Goes Activist on Samsung C&T
  • Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected
  • Inox India IPO – Offering Access to a Niche Sector
  • Severfield – FY24 expectations unchanged, order book robust


Whitebox Goes Activist on Samsung C&T

By Douglas Kim

  • On 14 December, it was reported that US based Whitebox Advisors has started an activist campaign on Samsung C&T (028260 KS).
  • Whitebox estimates that Samsung C&T’s stock price is about 68% undervalued compared to its NAV.
  • In addition to Whitebox, there are two other foreign investors including Palliser Capital and City of London Investment Management that have requested Samsung C&T to improve corporate governance.

Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Déjà Vu as YFO’s Proposal Rejected

By Arun George

  • The Toyo Construction (1890 JP) Board has opposed YFO’s potential tender offer price of JPY1,255 per share but has kept the door open for an improved offer. 
  • YFO is running out of options as a YFO candidate-heavy special committee opposed its proposal, and the share price is trading through terms. 
  • YFO has three options: a hostile offer at an unchanged price, an improved price, or exit its position. Each option has issues suggesting a lack of short-term share price support.  

Inox India IPO – Offering Access to a Niche Sector

By Ethan Aw

  • INOX India Limited (INOX IN) is looking to raise up to US$175m in its Indian IPO.
  • Inox India is a manufacturer of cryogenic equipment. As per CRISIL, the firm was the largest Indian exporter of cryogenic tanks in terms of FY23 sales.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s background. In this note, we talk about the company’s performance and share our quick thoughts on valuation.

Severfield – FY24 expectations unchanged, order book robust

By Edison Investment Research

Severfield’s H124 results highlighted profit growth despite declining revenue, and management continues to expect full-year results to be in line with previous guidance. The total order book has also remained at elevated levels despite the loss of a large studio contract, highlighting the quality of future work in the UK and Europe, and that it is a key indicator of future earnings visibility. The FY24e P/E rating of 7.0x is comfortably below the long-term average of c 10x, implying some risk is discounted in the rating. The stock yields nearly 6%, which is an added attraction.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Volpara Health Technologies, Zai Lab Ltd, Astellas Pharma, Rain Oncology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Volpara Health/Lunit: Bosom Buddies
  • Volpara Health (VHT AU): Lunit’s Binding A$1.15 Offer
  • [Zai LAB (ZLAB US, SELL, TP US$20) TP Change]: Two Positive News Drove up 2024 Growth Target
  • Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Some Recent Positive Developments That Will Yield Benefit in Long-Run
  • Closing RAIN


Volpara Health/Lunit: Bosom Buddies

By David Blennerhassett

  • Volpara Health  (VHT AU), which makes software enabling the early detection of breast cancer, has announced it has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with South Korea’s Lunit (328130 KS).
  • Lunit is offering Volpara shareholders A$1.15/share, in cash, a 47.4% premium to last close. Cornerstone investors with 25.92% of shares out are supportive. As is Volpara’s board.
  • The Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in 2Q24. The transaction requires NZ’s OIO approval.

Volpara Health (VHT AU): Lunit’s Binding A$1.15 Offer

By Arun George

  • Volpara Health Technologies (VHT AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Lunit (328130 KS) at A$1.15 per share, a 48.4% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.775 (13 December).
  • The offer is subject to several conditions, such as shareholder and OIO approval. Irrevocables and directors represent 33.30% of outstanding shares. 
  • Barring a competing offer, this is a done deal, as the offer is attractive. At the last close and for the end of May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.0%/11.6%.

[Zai LAB (ZLAB US, SELL, TP US$20) TP Change]: Two Positive News Drove up 2024 Growth Target

By Eric Wen

  • Local news reported two positive developments for Zai Lab’s FcRn inhibitor Efgartigimod: (1) Rival CSPC/HarbourBio withdrew BLA for competing drug Batoclimab (HBM9161), (2) Efgartigimod was included in 2024 NDRL;
  • We raise Zai Lab’s 2024 top line by 8.8% but keep non-GAAP operating loss largely unchanged;
  • We raise TP by US$2 to US$20 and maintain SELL.

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Some Recent Positive Developments That Will Yield Benefit in Long-Run

By Tina Banerjee

  • Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) has been reporting a couple of positive developments over the last one month. These are right steps toward achieving sustainable and accelerated growth in long-term.
  • Astellas received European Commission approval for Veoza for the treatment of moderate to severe vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause. This potential blockbuster drug has already been launched in the U.S.
  • Astellas is acquiring Propella Therapeutics for $175 million. Propella’s clinical-stage lead candidate can be a challenger to the current standard-of-care in prostate cancer treatment.

Closing RAIN

By Turtles all the way down

  • Rain Oncology (RAIN) is being bought out for $1.16 + CVR worth up to $0.17/share.
  • This seems like a worse deal than the $1.25 + CVR Tang was offering, but ok, I will take it.
  • Usually these CVR’s should be valued at a large discount to their upper value, so I see no reason to hang around in this one so closing this one for a 15% gain at $1.

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Daily Brief Financials: Lendlease Global Commercial REIT, Ethereum, Bajaj Finance Ltd, S&P/ASX 200, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd, Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties, Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust, BlackRock Greater Europe Inves, Deutsche Beteiligungs AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Lendlease Global: Sustainable Returns Through High-Quality Assets
  • Year Ahead For NFTs 2024 (Executive Summary)
  • Bajaj Finance: NIM Under Marginal Pressure But Overall Outlook Remains Strong
  • EQD | ULTRAOVERBOUGHT APAC Markets, SHORT Targets
  • Lippo Malls Indonesia – Event Flash – Tender Offer For USD Notes – Lucror Analytics
  • Poly Development Plans $279 Million Share Buyback to Shore up Price
  • Wanda Reaches Deal with Investors to Avoid $5.6 Billion Immediate Repayment
  • Morning Views Asia:
  • BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust – Long-term outperformance from high-quality fund
  • Deutsche Beteiligungs – Solid exits in FY23, expanding into private debt


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Lendlease Global: Sustainable Returns Through High-Quality Assets

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Lendlease Global Commercial REIT’s CEO, Mr Kelvin Chow.

In the upcoming webinar, Kelvin will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Angus Mackintosh. Angus will also be providing an industry overview, featuring landscape commentary and returns analysis. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

In the spirit of the festive season, one of the attendees will also be awarded an Amazon Kindle as part of our lucky draw.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 9 January 2024, 19:00 SGT.

About Lendlease Global Commercial REIT

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT’s portfolio comprises two leasehold properties in Singapore, Jem (office and retail property) and 313@somerset (retail property), and three freehold Grade A office buildings, Sky Complex, in Milan. It has a total net lettable area of approximately 2.1 million square feet, with an appraised value of S$3.65 billion. Other investments include a stake in Parkway Parade and the development of a multifunctional event space on a site adjacent to 313@somerset.


Year Ahead For NFTs 2024 (Executive Summary)

By Gerryl Pay

  • The stage is set for a potential resurgence of NFTs in 2024. As crypto wealth increases, spending on NFTs for “flexing”, identity, and entertainment will rise.
  • A few NFT Character Brands could explode into mainstream consciousness and grow exponentially. Others will remain as niche communities.
  • Ethereum will lose market share in NFTs, and Solana could catch up.

Bajaj Finance: NIM Under Marginal Pressure But Overall Outlook Remains Strong

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF) reported a decent Q2FY24. AUM growth came in at 33% YoY. Profitability was also strong with ROA and ROE at 5%+ and 24%+, respectively.
  • While, the overall outlook remains robust, BAF may see some NIM pressure due to rising cost of funds. However, majority of this is likely to be offset by operating leverage.
  • BAF’s initiative to enter into new segments like microfinance and new car financing is progressing well. New car financing expansion is already ahead of plan with presence in 85 locations.

EQD | ULTRAOVERBOUGHT APAC Markets, SHORT Targets

By Nico Rosti

  • 3 main APAC markets (Nifty, Kospi 200 and ASX200) are very OVERBOUGHT.
  • A WEEKLY pullback (1 week down) is expected this coming week, or the next.
  • The pullback should be short-lived and last just 1 week, then the rally should resume.

Lippo Malls Indonesia – Event Flash – Tender Offer For USD Notes – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust has launched a capped tender offer for its two outstanding USD notes: the 7.25% ’24s, with USD 231.8 mn outstanding; and the 7.5% ’26s, with USD 181.7 mn outstanding. The purchase prices will be 76.5 for the ’24s, and 66.5 for the ’26s. Funding for the tender offer would be from, and capped by the size of, an INR 2.5 tn (SGD 215 mn) secured amortising term loan facility.

We recommend that holders of the ’24s and ’26s tender their notes.


Poly Development Plans $279 Million Share Buyback to Shore up Price

By Caixin Global

  • The stock of Poly Development and Holdings Group Co. Ltd. jumped 7.6% Tuesday after the leading developer unveiled an up to 2-billion-yuan ($279 million) share buyback aimed at arresting its sliding equity price.
  • Shares of Poly Development closed at 10.34 yuan in Shanghai Tuesday, compared with 9.61 yuan at Monday’s closing. The stock has nearly halved from the 18.59-yuan peak in April 2022 after the persistent downturn in the property market.
  • Poly Development, China’s largest developer by sales this year, said late Monday that it plans to buy back 1 billion yuan to 2 billion yuan of its own shares in the next three months.

Wanda Reaches Deal with Investors to Avoid $5.6 Billion Immediate Repayment

By Caixin Global

  • Cash-strapped developer Dalian Wanda Group Co. Ltd. can breathe a temporary sigh of relief having reached an agreement with investors to avoid an immediate repayment of more than 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) for an unfulfilled flotation of its property management unit.
  • Wanda faced having to repay a group of investors their 38-billion-yuan investments plus interest under a 2021 agreement if the developer failed to list its light-asset unit, Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management Group Co. Ltd., by the end of this year.
  • As Zhuhai Wanda’s listing plan failed despite four attempts, the repayment obligation became a ticking time bomb hanging over the company, which is struggling with capital drains amid plunging sales.

Morning Views Asia:

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


    BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust – Long-term outperformance from high-quality fund

    By Edison Investment Research

    BlackRock Greater Europe Investment Trust (BRGE) has two co-managers: Stefan Gries (since June 2017) and newly appointed Alexandra Dangoor (since September 2023). They highlight that Europe is very attractively valued and as the managers seek the best businesses that are based in Europe, investors do not need to have a positive view on the European economy to consider BRGE. The trust has outperformed the Europe ex-UK market over the last one, five and 10 years, and its NAV total returns also rank first compared with those of the other three funds with a growth mandate in the AIC Europe sector over these periods.


    Deutsche Beteiligungs – Solid exits in FY23, expanding into private debt

    By Edison Investment Research

    Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAG) posted a strong 18.1% NAV TR in FY23 (to end-September 2023), which more than offset the NAV TR loss in FY22 of c 13%. Its performance benefited from, among other factors, comparable multiples expansion and a successful year in terms of realisations (in contrast to the muted exit activity across the broad global PE market). Moreover, DBAG’s management decided to enter the fast-growing private debt market through the acquisition of a majority stake in ELF Capital, with DBAG making a €100m investment commitment to ELF Capital’s funds. We believe this may have contributed to the recent update to DBAG’s distribution policy, which now assumes a minimum dividend of €1.00/share versus the previous 2023–25 management target of €1.60/share.


    💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

    Sign Up for Free

    The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

    • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
    • ✓ Personalised Alerts
    • ✓ Custom Watchlists
    • ✓ Company Data and News
    • ✓ Events & Webinars