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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Renesas Electronics, OpenAI, Tencent, Softbank Group, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Foxconn Technology, Arlo Technologies Inc, Qualcomm Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again
  • Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?
  • [Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results
  • Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay
  • Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges
  • HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly
  • SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.
  • How Foxconn Triumphed on the Chinese Mainland
  • ARLO: Picture of One Word, Buy
  • Qualcomm Sees No Threat From Huawei-Developed Chips, CEO Says


Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again

By Travis Lundy

  • INCJ made a lot of money on Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) over the years and arguably did a great job helping the firm change direction. Now they are out.
  • Last night they launched a block sale through JPM and Bof A for 130.2317mm shares. They priced the heavily-oversubscribed deal at a discount of 8% or ¥2143/share. 
  • That’s a big discount (so bad broking) for such oversubscription on a clearly-flagged deal but now they are out. 

Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

By Pranay Yadav

  • First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.
  • Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or “Generative Pre-trained Transformer.”
  • Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

By Eric Wen

  • We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.
  • We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent’s advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.
  • We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.

Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay

By Pranay Yadav

  • OpenAI held its first developer conference on November 6th. The event announced the launch of OpenAI’s latest model and feature upgrades.
  • The latest OpenAI model, GPT-4 Turbo offers drastically lower costs, updated knowledge cutoff, better vision and voice support, and improved API.
  • Event unveiled custom chatbots called GPTs for specific applications, showcasing expanded domain knowledge. They’ll be sold in a digital store, adding a new revenue stream for OpenAI.

Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges

By Victor Galliano

  • Softbank’s exposure to WeWork continues to haunt it beyond the close of 2QFY23, due to its credit support agreements
  • Aside from WeWork, we continue to see risks to valuations supporting the NAV; in particular, Arm Holdings and SVF2 which accounted for 45% of group equity value
  • Softbank shares trade at a 45% discount to the stated NAV yet there is downside risk to Arm’s valuation along with questions over private company valuations at SVF1 and SVF2

HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly

By William Keating

  • Revenues of US$568.5 million, down 10% sequentially and down 9.7% YoY, at the bottom of the previously guided range.
  • Net loss of $25.8 million compared to a profit of $7.8 million in the previous quarter and $65.5 million in the year ago period.
  • With current quarter gross margins in the 2-5% range, HHGrace has flipped from best in class in H123 to the worst in class now.

SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

  • Based on the some judgments, SMIC consider it will be relatively flat demand in 2024F.
  • SMIC took into consideration geopolitical instability and allowed equipment vendors to submit orders in advance. 
  • Currently, only a few manufacturers are stockpiling smartphones in response to this wave. The overall industry remains relatively stable.

How Foxconn Triumphed on the Chinese Mainland

By Caixin Global

  • Foxconn is facing one of its biggest compliance challenges on the Chinese mainland, where the key iPhone assembler has been caught in the crosshairs of government investigators.
  • Multiple Foxconn-affiliated entities are being investigated by Chinese authorities as part of probes into the company’s mainland facilities, Caixin confirmed Monday with Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd., the Taiwanese contract manufacturer’s Shanghai-listed arm.
  • State-owned newspaper Global Times first reported Sunday that Foxconn, also known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd., was facing tax and land-use probes into its mainland facilities.

ARLO: Picture of One Word, Buy

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO reported third quarter results underscoring the continued growth in paid subscribers leading the Company to another quarter of positive free cash flow.
  • ARLO has maintained its rate of quarterly net subscriber adds throughout 2023 and is poised to cross 3 million paid subscribers by the middle of 2024.
  • ARLO reported third quarter revenue of $130.0 million compared to our forecast of $127.5 million.

Qualcomm Sees No Threat From Huawei-Developed Chips, CEO Says

By Caixin Global

  • Qualcomm Inc.’s handset chip business in China will not be affected by Huawei’s push for semiconductor self-sufficiency, said chief executive Cristiano Amon.
  • Despite Huawei’s return to the mobile arena spotlight with an in-house chip, the growth trajectory of Qualcomm’s business with Android handset-makers in China will remain unchanged, according to Amon on a post-earnings call on Wednesday.
  • Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala cited an estimated jump of more than 35% in chip sales to Chinese smartphone-makers in and outside China for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.

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Daily Brief Financials: KE Holdings , Country Garden Holdings Co, Bakkt, Foxtons, Information Services and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • [KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain
  • Country Garden : Jungle Rather than Garden
  • UPDATE NOTE – Bakkt Holdings, Inc.
  • Foxtons Group – Strategic momentum and M&A adds to value
  • Information Services Corporation – Sustained growth with FY23 guidance reiterated


[KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain

By Eric Wen

  • KE Holdings’ (Beike) C3Q23 revenue was 7.7%/11.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 35%/119%. Existing home sales and non-transaction biz drove the bottom line beat.
  • We expect Beike C4Q23 to grow 20% YoY, 33% in existing home and 5% in new home, supported by gradual recovery of home transaction and Beike’s market share gain;
  • We reiterate BUY rating and raised TP by US$0.5 to US$24.5/ADS, also taking into account of progress in home renovation and rental management.

Country Garden : Jungle Rather than Garden

By Warut Promboon

  • Reuters reported on 8-November that China’s State Council has asked the Guangdong local government to arrange the rescue of Country Garden Holding.
  • Ping An’s spokesperson said the company had not been approached by the government.
  • There is also no guarantee on when bondholders will get paid back and how much the recovery value will be.

UPDATE NOTE – Bakkt Holdings, Inc.

By Water Tower Research

  • On November 9, Bakkt announced the expansion of its international footprint and custody client base.
  • Key to its international efforts is expectations to be live with crypto capabilities across new Latin American, European, and Asian markets by year-end.
  • CEO Gavin Michael said the company was “working efficiently to expand into international regions with more regulatory clarity and sizeable addressable markets.”

Foxtons Group – Strategic momentum and M&A adds to value

By Edison Investment Research

In Q323, all three of Foxtons’ divisions outperformed their respective markets, taking market share – the direct result of management action to avoid the same mistakes made during previous downcycles where costs were cut, a position from which it would subsequently struggle to recover. Foxtons’ new strategy focuses growth on non-cyclical revenue streams and decouples performance from sales market cycles. The latest value-enhancing acquisition leads to a net upgrade in estimates in FY24. We therefore raise our ‘base’ case valuation from 59p/share to 62p, which implies more than 60% upside, and our preferred ‘bull’ case valuation from 124p/share to 127p.


Information Services Corporation – Sustained growth with FY23 guidance reiterated

By Edison Investment Research

Despite prevailing macroeconomic headwinds and a subdued Canadian property market, Information Services Corporation (ISC) demonstrated year-on-year top-line and adjusted EBITDA growth in Q323. This was largely attributable to the MSA extension, augmented by sustained organic growth of the Services division. Net income was affected by heightened net finance costs, as a result of a rise in net debt from the C$150m upfront payment for the MSA extension. Nevertheless, ISC remains on a trajectory of securing new contracts and management reaffirms its FY23 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. We maintain our forecasts and valuation of C$37, implying 79% upside.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Olympus Corp, MariMed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist
  • MariMed, Inc. – 3Q23 Revenue Exceeds Estimates; Adjusted EBITDA In Line


Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced Q2 earnings which were  trifle light, and announced a sharp downward revision to full-year OP despite higher revs on weaker yen.
  • OP takes a hit because of expenses related to the shutdown of Veran Medical device sales (announced 6 Sep, “causing” a 2.4% share price fall the next day).
  • They also announced an ¥80bn buyback. That should be worth 3.0-3.5% of shares out, but overhang exists. The label is the label. The details are inside. They matter.

MariMed, Inc. – 3Q23 Revenue Exceeds Estimates; Adjusted EBITDA In Line

By Water Tower Research

  • MariMed report 3Q revenue of $38.8 million, which was slightly ahead of our estimate of $38.5 million.
  • This represents a 6.3% increase Q/Q and a 14.4% improvement Y/Y.
  • The revenue increase was driven primarily by Maryland. MariMed has a dispensary in Annapolis that converted to adult-use on July 1 and sales grew 88% Q/Q. 

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Daily Brief Consumer: Shidax Corp, Eclat Textile Company, MGM China Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low
  • Eclat Textile (1476 TT):  Start Of Upcycle
  • Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023


Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • 13mos ago I wrote about Shidax Corp (4837 JP) which an interesting restructuring past and a refreshing governance outlook going forward in Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters
  • The stock was up 25% in that period to yesterday. Today, a Nikkei article mid-day suggests the Shida family will launch an MBO. Stock popped. Earnings out after the close.
  • The article suggests a take-private MBO with Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) again supporting the deal. 30 minutes ago Shidax responded saying an offer was put forth at ¥800/share.

Eclat Textile (1476 TT):  Start Of Upcycle

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT) is a vertically integrated textile company, with around 20% net profit margin, similar to Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK).
  • The company just reported 3Q23 results, with sales down 26% yoy and net profit down 28% yoy.  Starting the next quarter 4Q23, the company is expected to return to growth.
  • The company now trades at 23x 2024E earnings.  I believe the valuation is reasonable as growth returns, and there are potential upside catalysts. 

Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Softbank Group
  2. Sunny Optical Technology Group
  3. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  4. Melco Resorts & Entertainment
  5. Yanlord Land

and more…


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 10th): Aia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 10th): Aia, China Petroleum & Chemical, Esr
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 3rd): Wisetech Global, BHP, Rio Tinto, Wesfarmers, Whitehaven Coal


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 10th): Aia, China Petroleum & Chemical, Esr

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 10th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), China Petroleum & Chemical (386 HK), Esr (1821 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 3rd): Wisetech Global, BHP, Rio Tinto, Wesfarmers, Whitehaven Coal

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 3rd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.5bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Wisetech Global, BHP, Rio Tinto, Wesfarmers, Whitehaven Coal, Northern Star Re, Invocare.

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Daily Brief ECM: WT Microelectronics Placement – Wouldn’t Be Difficult to Digest and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • WT Microelectronics Placement – Wouldn’t Be Difficult to Digest


WT Microelectronics Placement – Wouldn’t Be Difficult to Digest

By Ethan Aw

  • WT Microelectronics (3036 TT) major shareholder, WPG Holdings (3702 TT), seeks to raise up to approximately NT5.15bn (US$159m) through a secondary block deal, selling approximately 40m shares (4.5% of TSO). 
  • The deal is a small one to digest at 3.6 days of three month ADV and 4.1% of current mcap.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Trend Micro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Trend Micro, Screen, Mazda, Itochu-Techno
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/JD/PDD/BILI/Tencent/700.HK/Kuaishou/1024.HK/DOYU/HUYA/ACMR
  • Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024
  • Shroom Shmooz – Psychedelics and the Hype Cycle – Where Does It Go in 2024 and Beyond?


Japan Weekly | Trend Micro, Screen, Mazda, Itochu-Techno

By Mark Chadwick

  • Market Watch: Topix Index gained 0.6% WoW, influenced by Treasury yields and interest rate discussions, while individual stock movements were largely impacted by earnings reports
  • Major Movers: Trend Micro surged 19.6% on strong Q3 results and a ¥140 billion total shareholder return plan. Screen and Mazda rose 15% and 13.5%, driven by positive profit outlooks
  • Activist Watch: Oasis Management surprises with a 6.42% stake in Itochu Techno Solutions despite Itochu’s TOB completion & Share consolidation announcement. Oasis likely to contest valuation in Court.

[Blue Lotus Daily]: BABA/JD/PDD/BILI/Tencent/700.HK/Kuaishou/1024.HK/DOYU/HUYA/ACMR

By Eric Wen

  • BABA/JD/PDD: Post Bureau publishes Parcel Volume Data for Double 11 Festival (-/+)
  • BILI/700.HK/1024.HK/DOYU/HUYA: Douyu CEO Chen Shaojie missing for 3 Weeks (+/+/+/-/+)
  • 4689JP/PDD: LY C3Q23 result beat consensus on LINE advertising (/)

Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

By Andrew Lu

  • Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;
  • More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.
  • Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.

Shroom Shmooz – Psychedelics and the Hype Cycle – Where Does It Go in 2024 and Beyond?

By Water Tower Research

  • Psychedelic stocks continue their bad trip despite the psychedelic renaissance.
  • The headlines flowing out of the psychedelics sector over the past year indicate that the psychedelic renaissance appears to be gaining momentum.
  • Clinical trials at various stages involving psychedelic substances, led by MDMA, psilocybin, ketamine, and DMT, have produced results showing clinical promise in a number of treatment- resistant mental health disorders. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023
  • Country Garden : Jungle Rather than Garden


Weekly Wrap – 10 Nov 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Softbank Group
  2. Sunny Optical Technology Group
  3. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  4. Melco Resorts & Entertainment
  5. Yanlord Land

and more…


Country Garden : Jungle Rather than Garden

By Warut Promboon

  • Reuters reported on 8-November that China’s State Council has asked the Guangdong local government to arrange the rescue of Country Garden Holding.
  • Ping An’s spokesperson said the company had not been approached by the government.
  • There is also no guarantee on when bondholders will get paid back and how much the recovery value will be.

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote
  • Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low
  • Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?


Allkem/​Livent Merger: 19th December Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 10th May, Aussie lithium miner Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) inked a $US10bn+ “merger of equals” with Livent (LTHM US), ostensibly forming the world’s fifth largest lithium producer.
  • Allkem’s Scheme Meeting is the 19 December, with implementation expected on the 4 January. The IE is supportive and Allkem’s board unanimously recommends the transaction. 
  • This looks done. Buy Livent. And get borrow on Livent to be able to short it into the inclusion or in the days following. 

Shidax (4837) – Nikkei Scoops MBO (Anncmt Post-Close), Family Wants to Buy at ¥800 Which Is Too Low

By Travis Lundy

  • 13mos ago I wrote about Shidax Corp (4837 JP) which an interesting restructuring past and a refreshing governance outlook going forward in Shidax Outlook May Change – Better Governance Matters
  • The stock was up 25% in that period to yesterday. Today, a Nikkei article mid-day suggests the Shida family will launch an MBO. Stock popped. Earnings out after the close.
  • The article suggests a take-private MBO with Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) again supporting the deal. 30 minutes ago Shidax responded saying an offer was put forth at ¥800/share.

Olympus (7733) – OP Hit but Additional Buyback; Positive Dynamics but Flow Risks Persist

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced Q2 earnings which were  trifle light, and announced a sharp downward revision to full-year OP despite higher revs on weaker yen.
  • OP takes a hit because of expenses related to the shutdown of Veran Medical device sales (announced 6 Sep, “causing” a 2.4% share price fall the next day).
  • They also announced an ¥80bn buyback. That should be worth 3.0-3.5% of shares out, but overhang exists. The label is the label. The details are inside. They matter.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades- Santa Rally?

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again
  • Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?
  • [Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results
  • Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay
  • Eclat Textile (1476 TT):  Start Of Upcycle
  • SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.
  • HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly
  • Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges
  • How Foxconn Triumphed on the Chinese Mainland
  • [KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain


Renesas Clean-Up Block Trade – Overhang Out of The Way And Time To Own Again

By Travis Lundy

  • INCJ made a lot of money on Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) over the years and arguably did a great job helping the firm change direction. Now they are out.
  • Last night they launched a block sale through JPM and Bof A for 130.2317mm shares. They priced the heavily-oversubscribed deal at a discount of 8% or ¥2143/share. 
  • That’s a big discount (so bad broking) for such oversubscription on a clearly-flagged deal but now they are out. 

Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

By Pranay Yadav

  • First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.
  • Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or “Generative Pre-trained Transformer.”
  • Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).

[Tencent(700 HK,BUY,TP HK$425)Target Price Change]: International Game and Advertising Drove Results

By Eric Wen

  • We expect that Tencent’s C3Q23’s revenue/non-IFRS operating profit/IFRS net income to be 2.3%/3.3%/4.2% above consensus.
  • We raised estimates of Tencent’s international game growth to 12% YoY to reflect the success. We also expect Tencent’s advertising business to benefit from e-commerce advertisers’ competition.
  • We raised the Target Price to HK$425, which implies 22.4X PE in 2024.

Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay

By Pranay Yadav

  • OpenAI held its first developer conference on November 6th. The event announced the launch of OpenAI’s latest model and feature upgrades.
  • The latest OpenAI model, GPT-4 Turbo offers drastically lower costs, updated knowledge cutoff, better vision and voice support, and improved API.
  • Event unveiled custom chatbots called GPTs for specific applications, showcasing expanded domain knowledge. They’ll be sold in a digital store, adding a new revenue stream for OpenAI.

Eclat Textile (1476 TT):  Start Of Upcycle

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT) is a vertically integrated textile company, with around 20% net profit margin, similar to Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK).
  • The company just reported 3Q23 results, with sales down 26% yoy and net profit down 28% yoy.  Starting the next quarter 4Q23, the company is expected to return to growth.
  • The company now trades at 23x 2024E earnings.  I believe the valuation is reasonable as growth returns, and there are potential upside catalysts. 

SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.

By Patrick Liao

  • Based on the some judgments, SMIC consider it will be relatively flat demand in 2024F.
  • SMIC took into consideration geopolitical instability and allowed equipment vendors to submit orders in advance. 
  • Currently, only a few manufacturers are stockpiling smartphones in response to this wave. The overall industry remains relatively stable.

HHGrace. Yikes! Things Just Got Really Ugly

By William Keating

  • Revenues of US$568.5 million, down 10% sequentially and down 9.7% YoY, at the bottom of the previously guided range.
  • Net loss of $25.8 million compared to a profit of $7.8 million in the previous quarter and $65.5 million in the year ago period.
  • With current quarter gross margins in the 2-5% range, HHGrace has flipped from best in class in H123 to the worst in class now.

Softbank (9984 JP): WeWork Hangover and Other Challenges

By Victor Galliano

  • Softbank’s exposure to WeWork continues to haunt it beyond the close of 2QFY23, due to its credit support agreements
  • Aside from WeWork, we continue to see risks to valuations supporting the NAV; in particular, Arm Holdings and SVF2 which accounted for 45% of group equity value
  • Softbank shares trade at a 45% discount to the stated NAV yet there is downside risk to Arm’s valuation along with questions over private company valuations at SVF1 and SVF2

How Foxconn Triumphed on the Chinese Mainland

By Caixin Global

  • Foxconn is facing one of its biggest compliance challenges on the Chinese mainland, where the key iPhone assembler has been caught in the crosshairs of government investigators.
  • Multiple Foxconn-affiliated entities are being investigated by Chinese authorities as part of probes into the company’s mainland facilities, Caixin confirmed Monday with Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd., the Taiwanese contract manufacturer’s Shanghai-listed arm.
  • State-owned newspaper Global Times first reported Sunday that Foxconn, also known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd., was facing tax and land-use probes into its mainland facilities.

[KE Holdings (BEKE US,BUY,TP US$24.5)TP Change]:Steady Recovery with Catalysts for Market Share Gain

By Eric Wen

  • KE Holdings’ (Beike) C3Q23 revenue was 7.7%/11.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP net income beat our est./cons. by 35%/119%. Existing home sales and non-transaction biz drove the bottom line beat.
  • We expect Beike C4Q23 to grow 20% YoY, 33% in existing home and 5% in new home, supported by gradual recovery of home transaction and Beike’s market share gain;
  • We reiterate BUY rating and raised TP by US$0.5 to US$24.5/ADS, also taking into account of progress in home renovation and rental management.

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