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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: Thailand: Government Shows Early Signs of Impotence and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Thailand: Government Shows Early Signs of Impotence
  • Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX
  • CX Daily: The Miracle and Mirage of Weight Loss Drugs
  • Great Game – 3 Key Predictions for the Ukraine War in 2024
  • Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?


Thailand: Government Shows Early Signs of Impotence

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The cyclical outlook for Thailand remains mixed despite the formation of the government. Signs of policy impotence are emerging, limiting the administration’s ability to respond.  
  • The messy implementation of Pheu Thai’s flagship digital wallet is but one sign of policy paralysis. The pro-Thaksin party is stuck in myopic populism to prop up its support. 
  • The unwieldy composition of the coalition means that hopes for economic and political reform are unlikely to be met. Economic upsides from political stability are thus limited. 

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

By Elias Lisberg Glistrup

  • With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.
  • In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.
  • In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

CX Daily: The Miracle and Mirage of Weight Loss Drugs

By Caixin Global

  • Drugs / Cover Story: The miracle and mirage of weight loss drugs 
  • Expo /: U.S. Agriculture Department to debut at China’s largest import fair

  • Corruption /: Former ICBC vice president under investigation for suspected corruption


Great Game – 3 Key Predictions for the Ukraine War in 2024

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • It’s finally time to turn our eyes back to Ukraine in this series – and we have a lot to talk about! Will Ukraine hold presidential elections next year and what about that Zaluzhny interview?
  • The Ukrainian summer offensive has been an almost complete failure with very few advances made.
  • General Zaluzhny – the Ukrainian commander-in-chief – admitted as much in a recent interview with the Economist and asked for a reversed strategy – more on that later.

Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to another one of our short nuggets, where it’s all about the charts and short conclusions! Today we will briefly dig into the world of commodity inventories, which despite tightness doesn’t seem to matter unless demand surprises positively to the upside.
  • Something tells us that’s exactly what’s gonna happen.
  • We will mainly focus on industrial metals and grains, whereas energy inventories will be covered in our weekly Energy Cable / EIA Watch.

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Daily Brief Australia: Orecorp Ltd, Pioneer Credit and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • OreCorp/Silvercorp: 8th December Shareholder Vote
  • OreCorp (ORR AU): A Wide Spread Heading into the 8 December Vote
  • Pioneer Credit Limited – AGM Signals Strengthening Position and Seeking Redress


OreCorp/Silvercorp: 8th December Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 6 August, Western Australian-based miner OreCorp Ltd (ORR AU) signed a Scheme Implementation Deed with Canada’s Silvercorp Metals (SVM CN).
  • OreCorp shareholders are offered A$0.15 in cash and 0.0967 new Silvercorp shares – or an implied value of A$0.60 – for each OreCorp share held.
  • The Scheme Booklet is out with a shareholder vote on the 8 December. Implementation is the 22 December.

OreCorp (ORR AU): A Wide Spread Heading into the 8 December Vote

By Arun George

  • The Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) IE considers Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)’s A$0.15 cash per share and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share offer fair and reasonable. 
  • The offer is subject to the Tanzanian Fair Competition Commission and shareholder approval. The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices.
  • While the offer has suffered from the steep SVM share price decline, there has been no visible dissent from major shareholders. At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%. 

Pioneer Credit Limited – AGM Signals Strengthening Position and Seeking Redress

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Pioneer Credit Limited (ASX:PNC) is one of the leading acquirers and managers of impaired credit in Australia and has gained its status by maintaining positive customer engagement, an unblemished compliance record with ASIC, and strong relationships with Australia’s largest bank and non-bank lenders.
  • PNC purchases debt from 18 different Australian vendor partners with long-term partnership purchasing arrangements in place with Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA).
  • The company’s AGM updates highlighted the strong position PNC occupies in the marketplace and the expected improvement in NPAT following debt refinancing currently in progress. 

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Daily Brief Singapore: DBS, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Procurri Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • DBS – 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets
  • Lippo Malls Indonesia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • 5 in 5 with Procurri – Advancing Sustainability in IT


DBS – 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

By Daniel Tabbush

  • DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world.
  • Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today’s release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter.
  • If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too.

Lippo Malls Indonesia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Social scores. We deem Governance as “Weak”, despite the “Adequate” score in quantitative terms. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


5 in 5 with Procurri – Advancing Sustainability in IT

By Geoff Howie

5 in 5 with Procurri – Advancing Sustainability in IT

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Daily Brief South Korea: HYBE and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Block Deal Sale of HYBE by Netmarble
  • Hybe Placement- Another Block Incoming


Block Deal Sale of HYBE by Netmarble

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 6 November, Netmarble announced that it will sell 2.5 million shares of HYBE which represents 569 billion won in amount at current price. 
  • The actual block deal amount is likely to be less than 569 billion won as there will likely be a  block deal discount rate. 
  • We would avoid this deal, mainly because we think HYBE is overvalued relative to its peers. 

Hybe Placement- Another Block Incoming

By Ethan Aw

  • HYBE (352820 KS)‘s second-largest shareholder, Netmarble, seeks to raise approximately US$408m through a secondary block deal, selling approximately 2.5m shares (6% of TSO). 
  • The deal is a slightly large one to digest at 10.9 days of three month ADV and 5.5% of current mcap.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Multi Bintang Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) Q3 2023: Weaker Than Expected Recovery So Far


Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) Q3 2023: Weaker Than Expected Recovery So Far

By Sameer Taneja

  • Recovery for Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) has been underwhelming with revenue/PAT for Q3 2023 coming in at -3% YoY/10% YoY.
  • We expect the high season (holiday/festivity season) of Q4 to be comparatively better as 9M2023 revenue/PAT tracks 7% YoY/14% YoY, below our 15% assumption. 
  • We like Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) as we are paid to wait in the name. The correction post earnings place it at 15.4x/12.7x PE FY23e/24e and 6% dividend yield. 

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Daily Brief United States: Ecovyst, ACCO Brands, HNI Corp, Rayonier Advanced Materials, Ubiquiti Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • ECVT: Investing for 2024
  • ACCO: Sales Retraction Creates Headwinds
  • HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report – Correction
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. – Investor Day Highlights “Specialty” In Specialty Cellulose
  • UI: Surprise Revenue Miss, PT to $160


ECVT: Investing for 2024

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ECVT has navigated a challenging 2023, marked by unforeseen external factors that have made accurate quarterly forecasting a formidable task
  • As the year comes to a close, ECVT is seizing an opportunity during the seasonal refinery downtime to expedite its capital expenditure plans from 2024.
  • ECVT reported third quarter sales of $173.3 million compared to our estimate of $171.3 million. The miss was the result of greater than expected slowdown in ecoservices segment

ACCO: Sales Retraction Creates Headwinds

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ACCO reported third quarter results without the expected back to school benefit. Instead, ACCO focused on profitable sales helping to lift gross margin and report higher earnings results
  • Retailers continue to tightly manage their inventory levels and the trend is expected to remain in the fourth quarter. 
  • ACCO remains a free cash flow investment story. We are not expecting growth in 2024 putting greater pressure on how much free cash flow ACCO can generate 

HNI Corporation – Raising Estimates Following Strong 3Q Earnings Report – Correction

By Water Tower Research

  • This note corrects the version that was published on November 2. Due to errors in our model, the full-year estimate for 2024 was not calculated properly.
  • The correct full-year 2024 EPS estimate is $2.65.
  • We are raising our non-GAAP (adjusted) EPS estimates for 4Q23 and 2024 following HNI’s strong 3Q23 earnings report on Tuesday, October 31, 2023.

Rayonier Advanced Materials, Inc. – Investor Day Highlights “Specialty” In Specialty Cellulose

By Water Tower Research

  • Portfolio strength and market weakness. At a recently held Investor Day, RYAM management highlighted its cellulose product portfolio, the company’s biomaterials initiative, and the current state of the industry in the wake of the G-P closure announcement.
  • RYAM also provided an update on 2023 guidance and a look at 2024 and 2027 EBITDA bridges.
  • Asset evaluation proceeding to the next round. Following the Investor Day, RYAM announced that it engaged Houlihan Lokey as its financial advisor to explore the potential sale of its paperboard and high-yield pulp (HYP) assets located at its Temiscaming site, as it advances its initiative to expand into higher-growth, higher-margin specialty businesses and reduce its exposure to commodity cellulose markets.

UI: Surprise Revenue Miss, PT to $160

By Hamed Khorsand

  • UI fiscal first-quarter results (September) fell short of consensus estimates, primarily due to underperforming sales in the enterprise segment.
  • Our initial expectations included the anticipation of soft demand for Ubiquiti, which was compounded by our belief in the enterprise spending momentum continuing
  • Ubiquiti’s fiscal first-quarter revenue came in at $463.1 million, falling short of our estimate of $547.9 million. Historically, the quarter has been a strong period, making this deviation particularly noteworthy

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Daily Brief India: Bajaj Finance Ltd, Cello World Limited, Tata Motors Ltd, Honasa Consumer , Vedanta Resources, Agile Property Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Bajaj Finance QIP – Very Well Flagged US$1bn Raising, past Deals Have Done Well
  • Cello World IPO Trading – Very Strong Institutional Subscription
  • Tata Motors – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Honasa Consumer IPO Trading – Great Anchor Book, Not so Great Overall Demand. Loved by FIIs
  • Vedanta Resources – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, China Vanke , Vedanta Resources


Bajaj Finance QIP – Very Well Flagged US$1bn Raising, past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) , one of India’s largest NBFCs, aims to raise around US$1bn via a QIP.
  • Bajaj Finance is an NBFC offering auto, consumer and home loans, along with other products as well.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the deal dynamics.

Cello World IPO Trading – Very Strong Institutional Subscription

By Sumeet Singh

  • Cello World raised around US$230m in its India IPO and will begin trading soon.
  • Cello World (CW) is an Indian consumer products company. The firm is a leading company in the consumerware market in India.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics

Tata Motors – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Tata Motors has released Q2/23-24 results that significantly outperformed expectations. Revenue grew 32% y-o-y to INR 105 k cr. Reported EBITDA surged 86% to INR 14.4 k cr, with the margin expanding 430 bps to 14.9%. Automotive FCF was INR 3.9 k cr, up INR 2.9 k cr. Jaguar Land Rover and the Commercial Vehicle segment in India recorded robust growth and profits, while Q2 was a transition quarter for the Passenger Vehicle segment.


Honasa Consumer IPO Trading – Great Anchor Book, Not so Great Overall Demand. Loved by FIIs

By Sumeet Singh

  • Honasa Consumer (Honasa IN) raised about US$200m in its India IPO.
  • HC’s product portfolio includes products in the baby care, face care, body care, hair care, color cosmetics and fragrances segments.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Vedanta Resources – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL) has released puzzling Q2/23-24 results. The oil & gas segment recorded a huge y-o-y jump in earnings during the quarter, for no apparent reason. In our view, the lack of explanation and attribution for the unexpectedly large earnings jump is very strange, compounded by the timing of the call (on a weekend, when fewer analysts would have attended). It is unclear if VEDL has made an accounting error, or if this was an attempt to put itself in a more positive light to gain better access to capital. This is a crucial period for the group, with parent Vedanta Resources (VRL) facing significant debt maturities in the next two years (USD 3 bn, with the nearest being the USD 1 bn maturing in January 2024). The results have increased our scepticism of the group’s financial reporting.

We move our recommendation on the VEDLN notes to “Not Recommended” from “Hold”.


Morning Views Asia: Alam Sutera Realty, China Vanke , Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief China: Tencent, WuXi XDC Cayman , Will Semiconductor Shan, Kuaishou Technology, Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings, Alibaba Group Holding , China Vanke (H) and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates
  • WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation First-Look
  • Will Semiconductor GDR Listing – Well Flagged and Short Interest Has Been on the Rise
  • Tencent (700 HK) 3Q23 Earnings Preview: No Concern on EPS Decline, 58% Upside
  • WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO – BULL/BEAR Scenario Considerations for Valuations
  • China Consumption Weekly (6 Nov 2023): Kuaishou, Bilibili, Midea, Baidu, Yum China
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Yue Yuen Industrial
  • Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Recovery to Continue, 67% Upside
  • WuXi XDC IPO Preview: The Rapid Rise of The Business In The Global ADC and Bioconjugate Market
  • China Vanke (2202 HK):  Short Term Trading Opportunity Post Conference Call


Tencent (700 HK): Board Meets Next Week; In-Specie Dividend Candidates

By Brian Freitas

  • Tencent (700 HK) announced in-specie dividends of JD.com (9618 HK) (US$15bn+) in 2021 and Meituan (3690 HK) (US$20bn) in 2022.
  • With the Tencent (700 HK) Board meeting on 15 November to approve Q3 results and considering the payment of a dividend, the pattern could repeat this year.
  • Tencent (700 HK) owns stakes of US$1bn+ in 10 listed companies. We take a look at the stocks that could be next in line to be paid as in-specie dividends.

WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation First-Look

By Arun George


Will Semiconductor GDR Listing – Well Flagged and Short Interest Has Been on the Rise

By Clarence Chu

  • Will Semiconductor Shan (603501 CH) is looking to raise US$450m in its Switzerland GDR listing. The bookrunners on the deal are UBS and JP Morgan. 
  • In its base deal, the firm is offering 31m GDRs (1 GDR to 1 ordinary A-share) for sale, at a 5.4-17.2% discount to last close on its A-share leg. 
  • The base deal would be a relatively small one for the firm to digest, representing just 3.8 days of three month ADV on its A-share leg.

Tencent (700 HK) 3Q23 Earnings Preview: No Concern on EPS Decline, 58% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • We believe advertising revenue will grow rapidly and game revenue will accelerate.
  • We also believe EPS will decrease YoY due to high “other gains” in 3Q22.
  • We expect the stock price will have an upside of 58% for year end 2024.

WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO – BULL/BEAR Scenario Considerations for Valuations

By Clarence Chu

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation and look at bull/bear scenarios for WXDC’s earnings.

China Consumption Weekly (6 Nov 2023): Kuaishou, Bilibili, Midea, Baidu, Yum China

By Ming Lu

  • All major Chinese e-commerce companies set up live broadcasting channels on Bilibili at the beginning of Singles’ Day sales.
  • Kuaishou chairman’s resignation will not change the business strategy, as he stepped down from CEO two years ago.
  • Baidu begins to sell ChatGPT-like service for CNY49.90 per month.

Asian Dividend Gems: Yue Yuen Industrial

By Douglas Kim

  • Yue Yuen has a scalable business model with high dividend yield (6.4%). Its sales and net profit are expected to increase by 9.3% YoY and 55% YoY, respectively in 2024.
  • The company is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its subsidiary Pou Sheng.
  • Yue Yuen Industrial is one of the largest footwear and athletic shoe manufacturers in the world. Its major customers include Nike, Adidas, Puma, and Reebok.

Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Recovery to Continue, 67% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • We believe the financial recovery from 1Q24 will continue in 2Q24.
  • We expect the operating margin will improve to 15% in 2Q24 versus 12% in 2Q23.
  • Alibaba has an upside of 69% and the target will be HK$143 for the year end 2024. Buy.

WuXi XDC IPO Preview: The Rapid Rise of The Business In The Global ADC and Bioconjugate Market

By Andrei Zakharov

  • WuXi XDC, a leading CRDMO focused on the global ADC and bioconjugate market, filed to go public in Hong Kong and plans to raise up to $500M.
  • The company is expected to IPO in November or December at the latest. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan are the lead underwriters. The offering may attract investor interest.
  • WuXi Biologics will spin off its ADC business, and WuXi XDC will raise capital through IPO to finance the construction of new facilities in Singapore and expand capacity in China.

China Vanke (2202 HK):  Short Term Trading Opportunity Post Conference Call

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) saw a major drop in bond and stock prices recently, due to fear of default. 
  • Yesterday, the company held a conference call, with representatives from Shenzhen SASAC and Shenzhen Metro (major shareholder of Vanke and owned by Shenzhen SASAC) participating in the call.
  • The strong support shown by Shenzhen SASAC/Shenzhen Metro represents a good short-term buying opportunity, for both Vanke stock and bonds. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Mizuho Financial Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • MHI (7011) | Rockets and Renewables
  • ROE Isn’t Rising Because Managers Don’t Think of the Value of the Company and Meaning of the Listing
  • Mizuho – Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better


MHI (7011) | Rockets and Renewables

By Mark Chadwick

  • MHI reports impressive YoY growth in order intake, revenues, and profits across Energy Systems and Defense Equipment segments in Q2 2023.
  • Despite a 62% YTD stock price increase, strong order backlog and underlying drivers suggest resilience in a challenging economic climate.
  • The company benefits from global trends in decarbonization and increased national security spending, positioning itself as a leader in gas turbines and defense technology.

ROE Isn’t Rising Because Managers Don’t Think of the Value of the Company and Meaning of the Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even after the “TSE’s request,” the average P/B of listed companies has not increased. In addition, ROE, which can be considered a driver for corporate value expansion, has remained flat.
  • Japanese managers tend to be caught up in formalistic thinking about whether or not a company is listed, and whether or not it’s listed on the highest market or not.
  • Instead of being caught up in formalistic thinking, I would like managers to seriously rethink the value of the company and what it means to be listed.

Mizuho – Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) can see higher profit guidance change than many in Japan, the region, given its first quarter was 40% of full-year guidance
  • Riding JGB yields will support this, with less loans to total financial assets, and the bank has even seen its unrealized losses on JGBs decline. Good ALM.
  • Credit metrics are better. Its credit costs are in reversal. This can continue or at least remain low. This is supported by granular, macro data.

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Daily Brief ESG: ROE Isn’t Rising Because Managers Don’t Think of the Value of the Company and Meaning of the Listing and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • ROE Isn’t Rising Because Managers Don’t Think of the Value of the Company and Meaning of the Listing
  • Lippo Malls Indonesia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


ROE Isn’t Rising Because Managers Don’t Think of the Value of the Company and Meaning of the Listing

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even after the “TSE’s request,” the average P/B of listed companies has not increased. In addition, ROE, which can be considered a driver for corporate value expansion, has remained flat.
  • Japanese managers tend to be caught up in formalistic thinking about whether or not a company is listed, and whether or not it’s listed on the highest market or not.
  • Instead of being caught up in formalistic thinking, I would like managers to seriously rethink the value of the company and what it means to be listed.

Lippo Malls Indonesia – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Social scores. We deem Governance as “Weak”, despite the “Adequate” score in quantitative terms. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


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