Category

Daily Briefs

Oct 24
0

Daily Brief Credit: JSW Steel – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Steel – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Vedanta Resources

JSW Steel – Earnings Flash – Q2 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

JSW Steel has delivered strong Q2/23-24 results in our view, driven by higher volumes and a recovery in steel prices. The numbers were in line with management’s earlier guidance for an improvement in operating environment and steel prices. The financial risk profile is improving, and liquidity is adequate.

Steel prices remained the key credit driver. A small price increase has resulted in a significant EBITDA increment, due to the high operating leverage. Based on management’s guidance for an improvement in the operating environment and steel prices, we expect better H2/23-24 numbers, with revenues inching up and a larger earnings improvement. Debt will likely remain stable following the merger with JISPL (completed in Q2), and the leverage profile should continue improving on the back of higher earnings.

Morning Views Asia: Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Oct 24
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing – Flowfront & Gold Price and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing – Flowfront & Gold Price
  • Celltrion Merger Swap Event: Trading Dynamics Post-Merger Approval
  • Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²
  • Merger Arb Mondays (23 Oct) – Eoflow, Celltrion Healthcare, JSR, Origin, Lithium Power, Poly Culture
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Sell Off Among Potential Inclusions as Momentum Fades
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: The Tail End
  • Understanding Kakao Bank’s Overhang Risk from Legal Consequences for Kakao Corp
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming
  • Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 23): Meituan, SMIC, Great Wall!
  • Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 2023): BYD/Changan IN But BIGLY Net Selling

Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing – Flowfront & Gold Price

By Travis Lundy

Celltrion Merger Swap Event: Trading Dynamics Post-Merger Approval

By Sanghyun Park

  • Celltrion Chairman Seo made a public statement, affirming that they are prepared to bear the entire cost, even if it exceeds the ₩1T ceiling, and proceed with the merger. 
  • The relatively substantial cost risk associated with Celltrion Inc. due to the involvement of NPS is causing the merger swap spread to widen once more in comparison to Celltrion Healthcare.
  • If the prices persist above the appraisal rights exercise prices, the relative cost risk for Celltrion Inc. could escalate, leading to a significant widening of the swap spread.

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²

By Travis Lundy

  • The Somewhat-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.
  • The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.

Merger Arb Mondays (23 Oct) – Eoflow, Celltrion Healthcare, JSR, Origin, Lithium Power, Poly Culture

By Arun George

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Sell Off Among Potential Inclusions as Momentum Fades

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearly complete, we see 15 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
  • There could be index changes even before the December rebalance if there are prolonged trading suspensions and stocks migrate from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.
  • The potential adds have sold off hard over the last six weeks, similar to the performance at the June rebalance.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: The Tail End

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearly complete, we expect 7 changes to the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December. Couple of changes are low probability though.
  • The Materials sector could be the biggest gainer at the rebalance while nearly all deletions could come from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
  • The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.15-15 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 1.7-8.1 days of ADV.

Understanding Kakao Bank’s Overhang Risk from Legal Consequences for Kakao Corp

By Sanghyun Park

  • Financial regulators will likely mandate Kakao Corp to divest all but 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank. The deadline is six months from the date of the order.
  • If this issue is resolved through the forced sale of the stake, it is anticipated that this stake volume will eventually be released into the market through block deals.
  • Kakao may proactively divest its Kakao Bank stake to transfer the majority shareholder position to KIS, regardless of the judicial outcome.

EQD | Nikkei 225 MONTHLY Rally May Be Finally Coming

By Nico Rosti

  • The Nikkei 225 (NKY) INDEX closed last week down at 31259.36. It’s currently trading between the Q2 and Q3 WEEKLY support levels and down for 4 months, so it’s OVERSOLD.
  • The index could reverse this week, or fall more into the end of October, but if this week closes down, the odds are very good for a rally in November.
  • Consider going LONG between here and supports in the 30600-30400 price area, a MONTHLY reversal could last at least 2-4 weeks (a month).

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 23): Meituan, SMIC, Great Wall!

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw HKD 3.9bn+ of net buying. That makes 13 weeks of net inflows.

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 2023): BYD/Changan IN But BIGLY Net Selling

By Travis Lundy

  • This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
  • The performance/spread/flow data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and 4 weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected/charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
  • Please play with nifty interactive tables+charts. We welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw RMB 24bn+ of net selling. Back to Bigly Selling!

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Oct 24
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism
  • China Internet Weekly (23 Oct 2023): AAPL, Alibaba, JD.com
  • Bandhan Bank: Not Yet, Not Yet! (2Q24 Update)
  • Xinhua Winshare (811 HK): Still the Place to Be
  • LRCX. China, DRAM Tailwinds Driving Modest Recovery
  • Axis Bank – Loan Mix Improving Dramatically | Strong ALM | Credit Costs Likely to Narrow Sharply
  • Australia Real Estate: Long Goodman Group GMG and Short DEXUS DXS Pair Trade
  • Porsche: Entering The World Of Luxury
  • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Mixed Q3 Result; Encouraging Procedure Growth Is the Key Positive
  • Sitoy (1023 HK): Deep Value ~50% of Mkt in Cash, 4x PE and 12.5% Dividend Yield

Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • During 2QFY24, Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea both saw a QoQ decline in Google search interest.
  • This suggests to us that there might be an earnings miss when Oriental Land (4661 JP) reports its FQ2 results on October 30, 2023.
  • Additionally, there are potential downside risks to both FY24 and medium-term consensus projections following a revised FY24 guidance announcement.

China Internet Weekly (23 Oct 2023): AAPL, Alibaba, JD.com

By Ming Lu

  • Apple fired five employees of China App Store for corruption.
  • Yonghui follows Alibaba’s Freshippo outlets to open discounted stores this year.
  • JD.com sued 44 companies and 3 persons for abusing JD’s trademark.

Bandhan Bank: Not Yet, Not Yet! (2Q24 Update)

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • In its recent result, Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) did not report the kind of improvement in asset quality in its core Microfinance segment that we were hoping to see.
  • Fresh slippages into overdue accounts did not slow down as anticipated; NPA levels remained elevated; Loan growth is below the target run-rate.
  • We anticipate the recovery to be drawn out, and hence suggest keeping patience. But  we maintain our long-term valuation of Bandhan Bank unchanged at 2.1x FY25e P/BV, implying +56% upside.

Xinhua Winshare (811 HK): Still the Place to Be

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The recent pullback in the share price of Xinhua Winshare (811 HK) is overdone, and it is now on attractive 4.5x PER, 6.7% yield, and 0.46x P/B. 
  • It has minimal exposure to economic slowdown and global geopolitical tension. There is solid revenue growth and margin expansion in 1H23, and demand is totally domestic and resilient.
  • Net cash amounted to 109% of its share price and this has not yet included Rmb2.2bn of equity investment on hand. Still, it is expected to generate ROE of 12%.

LRCX. China, DRAM Tailwinds Driving Modest Recovery

By William Keating

  • Q323 revenues of $3.48 billion, ahead of guidance and up 8.6% sequentially
  • December quarter guidance of $3.7 billion at the midpoint suggests ongoing recovery
  • However, still-declining services revenue indicates that all other headwinds remain in place

Axis Bank – Loan Mix Improving Dramatically | Strong ALM | Credit Costs Likely to Narrow Sharply

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Loan mix is improving, away from non-INR loans, asset mix is improving with less RIDF bonds, and bank is seeing an expanding LDR. 
  • Loss loans and doubtful loans are in major decline, they are less important to total NPLs, and still credit costs were high in 1Q24, likely overly conservative.
  • Credit growth is now at 22.6% YoY from 14.9% YoY one year ago, with consistent acceleration. With just 6% loan share, growth can remain high.

Australia Real Estate: Long Goodman Group GMG and Short DEXUS DXS Pair Trade

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this insight, we explore the potential trade idea to Long GMG and Short DXS, among Australia REITs
  • We propose this trade on the back of long-term attractive thematic and strong fundamentals of logistics sector and continued weakness of office sector, as well as company specific drivers
  • GMG focuses on logistics and is a fund manager, and will continue to be strong. DXS is primarily driven by Sydney office market, which is facing multiple headwinds

Porsche: Entering The World Of Luxury

By Alexis Dwek

  • Porsche is one of the world’s most successful luxury automotive manufactures, specializing in high-performance sports cars, SUVs, and sports limousines
  • The investment case revolves around Porsche’s continued sustainable structural growth, electrification, best-in-class technology, luxury nature, and sustainability capabilities
  • The stock price is trading near its IPO price of September 2022, at a 25% discount to summer highs.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US): Mixed Q3 Result; Encouraging Procedure Growth Is the Key Positive

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 3Q23, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) recorded 12% YoY revenue growth to $1.74B, driven by growth in da Vinci procedure volume and an increase in the installed base of systems.
  • 3Q23 procedure growth was 19%, versus 20% in 3Q22 and 22% in 2Q23. Systems revenue declined 11%, due to higher number of systems placed under lease and lower China demand.
  • The company now expects 2023 procedure volume growth of 21–22%, up from previous estimates of 20–22%. Significant material supply chain disruptions or hospital capacity constraints are not expected.

Sitoy (1023 HK): Deep Value ~50% of Mkt in Cash, 4x PE and 12.5% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • We examine the value proposition of Sitoy Group Holdings (1023 HK) trading at 4x PE with a 12.5 % dividend yield ( assuming a sustainable 50% payout ratio ).
  • The company has 400 mn HKD net cash and real estate worth 690 mn HKD on its balance sheet. This compares favorably with its 840 mn HKD market cap. 
  • The major drawback of investing in the company is its track record, which shows a steadily declining revenue trend and a fluctuating ROCE (currently 11%). 

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Oct 24
0

Daily Brief Macro: Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro
  • Stocks Want to Go to the Party, But Bonds Don’t Want to Get in the Car
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Solid BCA, Medikaloka Hermina, and The Keepers Season
  • Ready to Get Spooked? Properly Comparing Real Yields and P/E Ratios = Massive Downside for Equities!
  • Asia Economics: China’s Slowdown and Its Challenges and Opportunities for Asia
  • Malaysia Economics: 2024 Budget Begins Long Journey of Fiscal Consolidation

Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro

By Andreas Steno

  • The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)!

    It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns.
  • If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.

Stocks Want to Go to the Party, But Bonds Don’t Want to Get in the Car

By Cam Hui

  • Surging yields have not only cratered bond prices, but also created severe valuation headwinds for stock prices.
  • A fundamental and technical review of the U.S. Treasury market shows that bond prices are poised for a rally.
  • The fundamental and technical picture for U.S. equities is even brighter as fundamental momentum and oversold conditions point to a strong rebound.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Solid BCA, Medikaloka Hermina, and The Keepers Season

By Angus Mackintosh

Ready to Get Spooked? Properly Comparing Real Yields and P/E Ratios = Massive Downside for Equities!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Comparing real yields and P/E ratios shows little relationship between the two. However, this is because this is the wrong comparison and includes the issue of regime shifts.
  • Our analysis shows that equity market valuation is extremely vulnerable to spiking real yields.
  • Based on history, the S&P 500 Index should become 25% cheaper as the colossal rise in real yield continues.

Asia Economics: China’s Slowdown and Its Challenges and Opportunities for Asia

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Beyond the cyclical difficulties, China is likely to see a secular slowdown in growth. There will be short-term pain for the rest of Asia due to the negative spillovers. 
  • Contracting import demand in China will hurt growth and currency stability in the rest of Asia. However, there are signs of resilience despite the trade slump.  
  • The medium-to-long run implications may be more benign if other Asian economies can benefit from the restructuring of supply chains and trade linkages. 

Malaysia Economics: 2024 Budget Begins Long Journey of Fiscal Consolidation

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The first full-year budget of Malaysian premier Anwar Ibrahim sends a signal that the government is determined to return fiscal policy towards pre-pandemic norms. 
  • A rise in the sales and services tax, new taxes on capital gains and luxury goods, and a proposed global minimum tax suggest a determination to broaden the tax base.
  • The heavy lifting in reducing expenditures comes from a reduction in the subsidy bill. Efforts to streamline electricity and diesel subsidies may just be the beginning.

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Oct 24
0

Most Read: Newcrest Mining, Persol Holdings, Kurita Water Industries, Celltrion Inc, Oriental Land, Great Wall Motor, Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Youngone Holdings, Shinsung Delta Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing – Flowfront & Gold Price
  • Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank
  • Celltrion Merger Swap Event: Trading Dynamics Post-Merger Approval
  • Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism
  • Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO – Cancelled
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: The Tail End
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Sell Off Among Potential Inclusions as Momentum Fades
  • Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak; More FDI for Japan’s Chip Sector

Newcrest/Newmont Conclusion Nearing – Flowfront & Gold Price

By Travis Lundy

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks

By Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

By Brian Freitas

Celltrion Merger Swap Event: Trading Dynamics Post-Merger Approval

By Sanghyun Park

  • Celltrion Chairman Seo made a public statement, affirming that they are prepared to bear the entire cost, even if it exceeds the ₩1T ceiling, and proceed with the merger. 
  • The relatively substantial cost risk associated with Celltrion Inc. due to the involvement of NPS is causing the merger swap spread to widen once more in comparison to Celltrion Healthcare.
  • If the prices persist above the appraisal rights exercise prices, the relative cost risk for Celltrion Inc. could escalate, leading to a significant widening of the swap spread.

Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • During 2QFY24, Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea both saw a QoQ decline in Google search interest.
  • This suggests to us that there might be an earnings miss when Oriental Land (4661 JP) reports its FQ2 results on October 30, 2023.
  • Additionally, there are potential downside risks to both FY24 and medium-term consensus projections following a revised FY24 guidance announcement.

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²

By Travis Lundy

  • The Somewhat-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.
  • The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance Corp IPO – Cancelled

By Douglas Kim

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) stated today that it will cancel its IPO mainly due to low demand.
  • Despite the company’s emphasis on high dividends and high ROA of 5.8% in 2022 (5x average ROA of the domestic non-life insurance companies), many institutional investors emphasized on the negatives.
  • The major negatives include high interest rates, lack of growth potential, concerns about additional shares sale overhang, and unattractive valuations. 

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: The Tail End

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearly complete, we expect 7 changes to the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in December. Couple of changes are low probability though.
  • The Materials sector could be the biggest gainer at the rebalance while nearly all deletions could come from the Consumer Discretionary sector.
  • The impact on the potential inclusion ranges from 0.15-15 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 1.7-8.1 days of ADV.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Sell Off Among Potential Inclusions as Momentum Fades

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearly complete, we see 15 potential changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
  • There could be index changes even before the December rebalance if there are prolonged trading suspensions and stocks migrate from the KOSDAQ Market to the KOSPI Market.
  • The potential adds have sold off hard over the last six weeks, similar to the performance at the June rebalance.

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Snaps Losing Streak; More FDI for Japan’s Chip Sector

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -0.2% , Nasdaq +0.3%; Tech stocks moved higher after bond yields retreated from highs. Several big tech companies to report this week
  • Today: NKY Futs +0.1% v cash. JPY 149.7/$; Nidec’s results were OK, but not great – ADR down -5%
  • JapanX: Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor’s investment in Japan, supported by government subsidies, aims to revive Japan’s semiconductor industry and diversify the global supply chain

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Middle East Dominates; Japanese Companies Disposing Non-Core Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Middle East Dominates; Japanese Companies Disposing Non-Core Real Estate
  • China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-22-2023

Ohayo Japan | Middle East Dominates; Japanese Companies Disposing Non-Core Real Estate

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -1.3% , Nasdaq -1.5%; Broad-based equity decline with all sectors in the red as concerns over Israel-Hamas conflict grew; airline stocks under pressure
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.8% v cash. JPY 149.9; Core inflation at 13-month low; Signs that the property market overheating. Daiichi Sankyo big payday for cancer drugs
  • JapanX: Japanese companies boost P/B ratios by selling non-core real estate assets, transforming corporate governance and efficiency in response to the TSE’s call for improved performance

China Weekly Economic Wrap 10-22-2023

By Fern Wang

  • China had its one-belt-one-road summit held in Beijing this week and this year marked the 10-year anniversary of the initiative
  • China’s 3Q GDP is better than expected. Central bank has put outsized liquidity in the market while keep interest rate unchanged.
  • Big banks are helping to resolve local government debt issues, extending the term and reducing the interest rate the existing bank loans and also replaced others with bank loans.

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 20th): Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 20th): Meituan
  • Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 20th): Wistron, TSMC, Airoha Tech, Delta Elec, Taiwan Cement
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 20th): Postal Savings, Byd, CICC
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Wuxi Bio, AIA, Bidu

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 20th): Meituan

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 20th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We have highlighted the flows for Meituan (3690 HK) .

Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 19th.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,259.2 million, led by materials, industrials, and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities.
  • We highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Haitian Flavouring, Longi Green, CMB.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 20th): Wistron, TSMC, Airoha Tech, Delta Elec, Taiwan Cement

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 20th which has an aggregated holding worth USD627.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD974mln and highlight foreign changes in Wistron, TSMC, Airoha Tech, Delta Elec, Taiwan Cement.

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 20th): Postal Savings, Byd, CICC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 120.6% as of Oct 20th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 2.0ppt week on week, led by consumer staples, financials, industrials and offset by information technology, communication services, consumer discretionary.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Postal Savings, Byd and CICC.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Wuxi Bio, AIA, Bidu

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 13th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Wuxi Bio, AIA and Bidu.

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 Falling, LONG Support
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks

By Brian Freitas

EQD | KOSPI 200 Falling, LONG Support

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX closed down last week (CC=-1) and is going towards the Q2/median support at 314. The index is also OVERSOLD MONTHLY (CC=-3)
  • One possible scenario is to see the index downtrending into early/mid-November, find a bottom, and then begin a counter-rally from there.
  • The index could go down more this week, but a LONG trade could begin at 314 support, and if that does not hold, the next support area is at 306.

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&A events.  
  • The Origin Energy (ORG AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.

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Oct 23
0

Daily Brief Australia: Boss Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: InvoCare, Origin Energy, New Crest, Allkem, and More

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be up to four ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&A events.  
  • The Origin Energy (ORG AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) deals also could have interesting index change and/or flow implications over the next few weeks/months.

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Oct 23
0

Most Read: Newcrest Mining, Giordano International, Vinda International, WH Group, Shinko Electric Industries, Kurita Water Industries, Persol Holdings, New World Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans
  • Asian Dividend Gems: Giordano International
  • Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood
  • WH Group (288 HK):  Potential US Listing Of Smithfield Foods Could Be A Catalyst
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank
  • Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks
  • NWD 17 HK: FY23 Results Update, to Reset and Transform, and a Beta Play if Rate Expectation Peaks
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Lithium Power, Vinda, Origin Energy, Liontown, Kenedix REITs
  • Ohayo Japan | Middle East Dominates; Japanese Companies Disposing Non-Core Real Estate

Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

By Travis Lundy

Asian Dividend Gems: Giordano International

By Douglas Kim

  • Giordano, one of the most recognizable apparel business in Asia, has been improving its operations materially with solid growth in sales and profits. 
  • Giordano provides very high dividend yield and payout. The consensus expects DPS of HKD 0.28 for Giordano in 2023, which would suggest a dividend yield of 12.8%. 
  • We like the company’s high dividend yield, loyal customer base, and attractive valuations. It is trading at EV/EBITDA of 3.6x and P/B of 1.5x. 

Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27 April, Vinda (3331 HK) announced its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) would commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership. See Essity Mulls Holding In Vinda (3331 HK).
  • That shook a variety of suitors out of the woodwork (so to speak) including (reportedly) Brazil’s Suzano, the world’s largest hardwood pulp producer, Bain Capital, CVC Capital, and DCP Capital.
  • The latest (alleged) interested party is the Tanoto family, currently holding a 7.03% stake, having first cleared 5% on the 26 September. 

WH Group (288 HK):  Potential US Listing Of Smithfield Foods Could Be A Catalyst

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • According to public news yesterday, WH Group (288 HK) plans to list its US pork business Smithfield Foods, the largest US pork producer, back in the US again. 
  • WH Group currently trades at 5x 2024E PE, assuming earnings return to the 2022 level in 2024E.  Since 2016, the company has had an average PE of 11x. 
  • The stock is a buy with a fairly strong catalyst in the potential US listing of the Smithfield Foods business, while downside is limited. 

Last Week In Event SPACE: Shinko Electric Industries, MGM China, Decente, Sankei Real Estate,

By David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

By Brian Freitas

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting** Stocks

By Brian Freitas

NWD 17 HK: FY23 Results Update, to Reset and Transform, and a Beta Play if Rate Expectation Peaks

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this insight, we summarized NWD’s FY2023 results.  We think the gearing and balance sheet, the biggest concern that market has, has been clearly addressed
  • NWD has announced disposal of its stake in NWS, and will have more corporate actions to come.  The dividend expectation is reset
  • We view most of the negatives are priced in at current valuation.  NWD is much better than a Chinese developer, and should not be trading at 0.19x PB

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Lithium Power, Vinda, Origin Energy, Liontown, Kenedix REITs

By David Blennerhassett

Ohayo Japan | Middle East Dominates; Japanese Companies Disposing Non-Core Real Estate

By Mark Chadwick

  • Overseas: SPX -1.3% , Nasdaq -1.5%; Broad-based equity decline with all sectors in the red as concerns over Israel-Hamas conflict grew; airline stocks under pressure
  • Today: NKY Futs -0.8% v cash. JPY 149.9; Core inflation at 13-month low; Signs that the property market overheating. Daiichi Sankyo big payday for cancer drugs
  • JapanX: Japanese companies boost P/B ratios by selling non-core real estate assets, transforming corporate governance and efficiency in response to the TSE’s call for improved performance

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