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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Is Samsung M&A About to Happen? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Samsung M&A About to Happen?
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK): Mixed 1H23 Result; Strong Non-COVID Business Momentum Enhances Visibility
  • MT (Meituan 3690 HK): 2Q23, Record High Op Profit, 38% Buy
  • India Industrials | Quarterly Update – ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells
  • Daikin (6367) | Cooling on Heat Pumps
  • Nvidia: Better than Dreamed
  • VIPShop (VIPS US): Attractive Value Play Underappreciated by Investors Looking for Growth
  • [iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$6.25) Review]: Ads Revenue Will Continue to Have Fair Growth
  • Western Digital Corporation: How Cloud is Redefining Their Revenue Streams! – Major Drivers
  • Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Appearing Prescient; Relative Value in Micron


Is Samsung M&A About to Happen?

By Ken S. Kim

  • Local press states that Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)sold shares as they look to invest in their future capex
  • The capex amount for 2023 will be around 40-50 trillion KRW and it doesn’t seem like W3 trillion is a needle mover
  • With a new 3 year shareholder return plan, I would think maybe cash is needed to secure ammunition for M&A

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK): Mixed 1H23 Result; Strong Non-COVID Business Momentum Enhances Visibility

By Tina Banerjee

  • Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) recorded 8% YoY revenue growth to RMB8.5B in 1H23. Strong momentum continued in the base business, with the non-COVID revenue achieving a 60% YoY growth.  
  • Ramping up of new manufacturing facilities, maintenance shutdown of existing facilities, slowdown in funding environment in China, and increasing expenses have negatively impacted the profitability.
  • Total number of integrated projects reached a new record of 621 with 46 integrated projects added to the pipeline. As of June 30, backlog increased 9% YoY to $20.1B.

MT (Meituan 3690 HK): 2Q23, Record High Op Profit, 38% Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue grew by 33% YoY, which is the highest growth rate in the past seven quarters.
  • The company achieved a higher operating profit in 2Q23 after turned the profit positive in 1Q23.
  • The stock price has risen by 20% since our last buy rating, but we believe there will be still 38% upside for yearend 2024.

India Industrials | Quarterly Update – ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells

By Pranav Bhavsar


Daikin (6367) | Cooling on Heat Pumps

By Mark Chadwick

  • Daikin’s air conditioning business continues to benefit from the secular trends of urbanization, climate change, and rising incomes.  
  • However, the same logic might not apply to heat pumps, which face far more “structural” issues, warranting a lower valuation.
  • Overall, we believe that Daikin deserves to trade at its historical multiple of 15x EV/EBIT and see 20% downside from here.

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.
  • Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.
  • Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.

VIPShop (VIPS US): Attractive Value Play Underappreciated by Investors Looking for Growth

By Eric Chen

  • Over the last decade, VIPShop proved it is the undisputed leader in China’s online discount retail business with the longest streak of profitability and impressive ROE among China internet names.
  • Investors are misplaced to look to the stock for growth. Rather, it is cash cow in mature business with deep moat and run by disciplined management who cares about shareholders.
  • Trading at 4.5x our FY23 earnings excluding net cash, it valuation is attractive even compared to depressed sector comps. Expect 20% CAGR of return by 2025 driven by intrinsic value.

[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$6.25) Review]: Ads Revenue Will Continue to Have Fair Growth

By Shawn Yang

  • IQ reported 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income 0.2%/28.5% vs cons.
  • We cut our projections for 3Q23’s membership services revenue, but increased estimations for online ads services revenue, and raised margin forecasts for 2023.  
  • We maintain our US$ 6.25 TP, implying 16.2X PE in 2023.

Western Digital Corporation: How Cloud is Redefining Their Revenue Streams! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Western Digital Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the quarter, with total revenue of $2.7 billion.
  • In the fourth quarter, cloud comprised 37% of all revenue at $1 billion, down 18% from the previous quarter and 53% from the previous year.
  • Shipments of nearline bits were 59 exabytes, a 26% sequential decline driven by persistent difficulties among cloud clients.

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Appearing Prescient; Relative Value in Micron

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Major memory names have fallen with the recent market concerns and only staged a small reboound due to Nvidia’s bullish results.
  • NAND and DRAM price declines have stabilized. Demand for DRAM from servers is expected to exceed that from mobile devices, driven by AI usage.
  • We see relative value in Micron vs. Nanya Technology and SK Hynix. SK Hynix is ahead of the game for AI, and Nanya offers focused DRAM exposure however.

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Daily Brief Macro: China Watch: The Big Losers from an Imports Pull-Back and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • China Watch: The Big Losers from an Imports Pull-Back
  • EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg
  • CX Daily: China’s Auto Exports Belie Roadblocks to Conquering Europe, U.S.


China Watch: The Big Losers from an Imports Pull-Back

By Andreas Steno

  • Real estate isn’t the only sector in commotion.
  • Chinese imports have plummeted and this too has implications for global markets.
  • Without further ado, let’s dive into some statistics – welcome! The CNY is still in the driver’s seat of cross-market action.

EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

By Emil Moller

  • During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.
  • The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.
  • Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.

CX Daily: China’s Auto Exports Belie Roadblocks to Conquering Europe, U.S.

By Caixin Global


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Daily Brief Crypto: Comparing Liquidity on Uniswap and Binance and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Comparing Liquidity on Uniswap and Binance


Comparing Liquidity on Uniswap and Binance

By Kaiko

  • Market depth is a widely used measure of liquidity, commonly calculated across the order books of cryptocurrency pairs on centralized exchanges (CEXes).
  • It provides the amount of bids and asks at varying distances from the mid-price, encompassing a range from -0.1% to 10%.
  • This chart shows cumulative ETH-USDT bid and ask volumes at various levels on the ten largest CEXes.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Ocean, Polycab India , Vishnu Prakash R Punglia , Daikin Industries, JSW Infrastructure, APM Human Services Internation, Republic Services, Illinois Tool Works and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Ocean: Big Shares Dilution from Rights Offering of 2 Trillion Won
  • India Industrials | Quarterly Update – ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells
  • Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • Daikin (6367) | Cooling on Heat Pumps
  • JSW Infra Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Fees Rose Quicker than Escalations. High Related Party Dealings
  • APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up – US$400m of Shares Come Free but First PE Needs to Clear Out
  • Republic Services Inc.: Advancement of Sustainable Packaging Solutions & Other Drivers
  • Illinois Tool Works Inc.: 4 Success Strategies Behind Their Recent Performance! – Financial Forecasts


Hanwha Ocean: Big Shares Dilution from Rights Offering of 2 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 23 August, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) confirmed that it will conduct a massive rights offering of 2 trillion won.
  • The expected rights offering price is 22,350 won, which is 36% discount to current price. 
  • We believe this rights offering is likely to dilute the existing shareholders and negatively impact Hanwha Ocean’s share price.

India Industrials | Quarterly Update – ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells

By Pranav Bhavsar


Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Vishnu Prakash R Punglia (1636911D IN) IPO has opened for subscription.
  • The company operates in the EPC space with a prominence in Water Supply Projects and a strong geographic presence in Rajasthan.
  • The financials of the company should be looked at carefully, especially given the fact that margins are boosted by inventory, and there are plenty of RPT with the promoters.

Daikin (6367) | Cooling on Heat Pumps

By Mark Chadwick

  • Daikin’s air conditioning business continues to benefit from the secular trends of urbanization, climate change, and rising incomes.  
  • However, the same logic might not apply to heat pumps, which face far more “structural” issues, warranting a lower valuation.
  • Overall, we believe that Daikin deserves to trade at its historical multiple of 15x EV/EBIT and see 20% downside from here.

JSW Infra Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Fees Rose Quicker than Escalations. High Related Party Dealings

By Clarence Chu

  • JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) is looking to raise around US$340m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • JSW Infrastructure (JSWI) is the fastest growing port-related infrastructure company in terms of growth in installed cargo handling capacity and cargo volumes handled during FY20 to FY22, according to CRISIL. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up – US$400m of Shares Come Free but First PE Needs to Clear Out

By Sumeet Singh

  • APM Human Services (APM AU) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. The second IPO linked lockup is set to expire next week.
  • APM is an international human services provider, it runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Republic Services Inc.: Advancement of Sustainable Packaging Solutions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Republic Services exceeded analyst expectations in revenue and earnings.
  • The company is improving profitability while successfully expanding its business both organically and through acquisitions.
  • The company produced a revenue increase of 9% throughout the quarter, including more than 4% via acquisitions.

Illinois Tool Works Inc.: 4 Success Strategies Behind Their Recent Performance! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Illinois Tool Works delivered mixed results for the quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • The expansion of operating margins indicates the company has adapted well to changing market dynamics.
  • While some factors impacted revenues, the stable underlying demand across various industrial end markets reflects the company’s resilience.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Ocean, Polycab India , Vishnu Prakash R Punglia , Daikin Industries, JSW Infrastructure, APM Human Services Internation, Republic Services, Illinois Tool Works and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Ocean: Big Shares Dilution from Rights Offering of 2 Trillion Won
  • India Industrials | Quarterly Update – ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells
  • Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis
  • Daikin (6367) | Cooling on Heat Pumps
  • JSW Infra Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Fees Rose Quicker than Escalations. High Related Party Dealings
  • APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up – US$400m of Shares Come Free but First PE Needs to Clear Out
  • Republic Services Inc.: Advancement of Sustainable Packaging Solutions & Other Drivers
  • Illinois Tool Works Inc.: 4 Success Strategies Behind Their Recent Performance! – Financial Forecasts


Hanwha Ocean: Big Shares Dilution from Rights Offering of 2 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 23 August, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) confirmed that it will conduct a massive rights offering of 2 trillion won.
  • The expected rights offering price is 22,350 won, which is 36% discount to current price. 
  • We believe this rights offering is likely to dilute the existing shareholders and negatively impact Hanwha Ocean’s share price.

India Industrials | Quarterly Update – ABB India, Siemens, Polycab and Havells

By Pranav Bhavsar


Vishnu Prakash R Punglia Ltd IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Vishnu Prakash R Punglia (1636911D IN) IPO has opened for subscription.
  • The company operates in the EPC space with a prominence in Water Supply Projects and a strong geographic presence in Rajasthan.
  • The financials of the company should be looked at carefully, especially given the fact that margins are boosted by inventory, and there are plenty of RPT with the promoters.

Daikin (6367) | Cooling on Heat Pumps

By Mark Chadwick

  • Daikin’s air conditioning business continues to benefit from the secular trends of urbanization, climate change, and rising incomes.  
  • However, the same logic might not apply to heat pumps, which face far more “structural” issues, warranting a lower valuation.
  • Overall, we believe that Daikin deserves to trade at its historical multiple of 15x EV/EBIT and see 20% downside from here.

JSW Infra Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Fees Rose Quicker than Escalations. High Related Party Dealings

By Clarence Chu

  • JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) is looking to raise around US$340m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • JSW Infrastructure (JSWI) is the fastest growing port-related infrastructure company in terms of growth in installed cargo handling capacity and cargo volumes handled during FY20 to FY22, according to CRISIL. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up – US$400m of Shares Come Free but First PE Needs to Clear Out

By Sumeet Singh

  • APM Human Services (APM AU) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. The second IPO linked lockup is set to expire next week.
  • APM is an international human services provider, it runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Republic Services Inc.: Advancement of Sustainable Packaging Solutions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Republic Services exceeded analyst expectations in revenue and earnings.
  • The company is improving profitability while successfully expanding its business both organically and through acquisitions.
  • The company produced a revenue increase of 9% throughout the quarter, including more than 4% via acquisitions.

Illinois Tool Works Inc.: 4 Success Strategies Behind Their Recent Performance! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Illinois Tool Works delivered mixed results for the quarter, with revenues below the analyst consensus.
  • The expansion of operating margins indicates the company has adapted well to changing market dynamics.
  • While some factors impacted revenues, the stable underlying demand across various industrial end markets reflects the company’s resilience.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Indika Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy


Morning Views Asia: Indika Energy

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung Electronics, Intouch Holdings, ARM Holdings, NVIDIA Corp, Western Digital, iQIYI Inc, Micron Technology, Monolithic Power Systems, Inc, Bitcoin and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Samsung M&A About to Happen?
  • StubWorld: Intouch “Cheap” As Thaksin Returns
  • ARM Holdings Pre-IPO – Pre-Privatisation to Pre-Listing Changes – Slower Growth, Lower Margins
  • ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case
  • Nvidia: Better than Dreamed
  • Western Digital Corporation: How Cloud is Redefining Their Revenue Streams! – Major Drivers
  • [iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$6.25) Review]: Ads Revenue Will Continue to Have Fair Growth
  • Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Appearing Prescient; Relative Value in Micron
  • Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: An Exciting Leap into EV & AI Domains! – Major Drivers
  • Comparing Liquidity on Uniswap and Binance


Is Samsung M&A About to Happen?

By Ken S. Kim

  • Local press states that Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)sold shares as they look to invest in their future capex
  • The capex amount for 2023 will be around 40-50 trillion KRW and it doesn’t seem like W3 trillion is a needle mover
  • With a new 3 year shareholder return plan, I would think maybe cash is needed to secure ammunition for M&A

StubWorld: Intouch “Cheap” As Thaksin Returns

By David Blennerhassett

  • Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) plumbs new 12-month lows for its implied stub, and NAV discount as the former PM returns from exile. 
  • Preceding my comments on Intouch are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

ARM Holdings Pre-IPO – Pre-Privatisation to Pre-Listing Changes – Slower Growth, Lower Margins

By Sumeet Singh

  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) aims to raise around US$8-10bn via selling some of its stake in ARM Holdings’ US IPO.
  • ARM develops and licences high-performance, low-cost, and energy-efficient CPU products and related technology, which is used by semiconductor companies and OEMs to develop their own products.
  • In this note, we compare its recent performance versus its performance prior to its privatisation and discuss the changes since then.

ARM Holdings IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • ARM Holdings (1822695D US) is the world’s most widely licensed and deployed processor. Softbank Group (9984 JP) is seeking to raise about US$6-10 billion by listing ARM on Nasdaq.   
  • Softbank Privatised ARM for US$32bn in 2016 and unsuccessfully tried to sell it to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) for US$40bn in 2022. In August, Softbank acquired Vision Fund’s ARM stake.
  • The bull case rests on the growth in licensees, high customer switching costs, rising royalty rates, strong revenue visibility and a highly profitable and cash-generative business model.

Nvidia: Better than Dreamed

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • Nvidia, in characteristic fashion, murdered EPS estimates.
  • Revenue was $2 billion ahead of the guide, and the guide was another $4 billion ahead of consensus for the next quarter.
  • Going into the print, many people were concerned that positioning was bad, i.e., everyone was bullish and expectations were too high. Well, they did not disappoint.

Western Digital Corporation: How Cloud is Redefining Their Revenue Streams! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Western Digital Corporation delivered an all-around beat in the quarter, with total revenue of $2.7 billion.
  • In the fourth quarter, cloud comprised 37% of all revenue at $1 billion, down 18% from the previous quarter and 53% from the previous year.
  • Shipments of nearline bits were 59 exabytes, a 26% sequential decline driven by persistent difficulties among cloud clients.

[iQIYI, Lnc. (IQ US, BUY, TP US$6.25) Review]: Ads Revenue Will Continue to Have Fair Growth

By Shawn Yang

  • IQ reported 2Q23 revenue and non-GAAP net income 0.2%/28.5% vs cons.
  • We cut our projections for 3Q23’s membership services revenue, but increased estimations for online ads services revenue, and raised margin forecasts for 2023.  
  • We maintain our US$ 6.25 TP, implying 16.2X PE in 2023.

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Appearing Prescient; Relative Value in Micron

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Major memory names have fallen with the recent market concerns and only staged a small reboound due to Nvidia’s bullish results.
  • NAND and DRAM price declines have stabilized. Demand for DRAM from servers is expected to exceed that from mobile devices, driven by AI usage.
  • We see relative value in Micron vs. Nanya Technology and SK Hynix. SK Hynix is ahead of the game for AI, and Nanya offers focused DRAM exposure however.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.: An Exciting Leap into EV & AI Domains! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Monolithic Power Systems managed to exceed the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • Storage and computing revenue increased in the quarter.
  • Industrial revenue for the second quarter of 2023 also increased due to higher equipment sales for power sources and industrial meter applications.

Comparing Liquidity on Uniswap and Binance

By Kaiko

  • Market depth is a widely used measure of liquidity, commonly calculated across the order books of cryptocurrency pairs on centralized exchanges (CEXes).
  • It provides the amount of bids and asks at varying distances from the mid-price, encompassing a range from -0.1% to 10%.
  • This chart shows cumulative ETH-USDT bid and ask volumes at various levels on the ten largest CEXes.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Meituan, CD Projekt, UMW Holdings, Boustead Plantations, Cello World Limited, Vipshop Holdings, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Polaris Holdings, Telenet Group Holding NV and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MT (Meituan 3690 HK): 2Q23, Record High Op Profit, 38% Buy
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep 23: 6 ADDs/DELs As Things Stand; More Possible
  • UMW Holdings (UMWH MK): Sime Darby’s Pre-Conditional MGO
  • Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK): Pre-Conditional MGO at RM1.55
  • Cello World Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Sime Darby/UMW: It’s All About Scale
  • VIPShop (VIPS US): Attractive Value Play Underappreciated by Investors Looking for Growth
  • Companies Should Show a Path to Accelerated Profit Growth Rather than Shareholder Returns
  • Polaris Holdings (3010) – Positioned to Leverage Demand Recovery
  • Liberty/​​Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer


MT (Meituan 3690 HK): 2Q23, Record High Op Profit, 38% Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Total revenue grew by 33% YoY, which is the highest growth rate in the past seven quarters.
  • The company achieved a higher operating profit in 2Q23 after turned the profit positive in 1Q23.
  • The stock price has risen by 20% since our last buy rating, but we believe there will be still 38% upside for yearend 2024.

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Sep 23: 6 ADDs/DELs As Things Stand; More Possible

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the SE600 and EURSTX Indices for the September 2023 Rebalance.
  • I currently expect 6 ADDs and 6 DELETEs for the SE600 index in the September 2023 rebalance but these rankings could change prior to the base date.
  • After the September 2023 rebalance, SimCorp A/S (SIM DC) could get deleted from the SE600 index and trigger an intra-review index change.

UMW Holdings (UMWH MK): Sime Darby’s Pre-Conditional MGO

By Arun George

  • Sime Darby (SIME MK) entered a conditional sale and purchase agreement (SPA) to acquire PNB’s 61.18% stake in UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) for RM5.00 per share.
  • Once the SPA becomes unconditional, Sime Darby must launch an MGO for the remaining UMW shares at RM5.00 per share, an 8.2% premium to the last close.  
  • The SPA is conditional on Sime Darby’s shareholder approval. The SPA and MGO are targeted to be completed in 4Q23 and 1Q24, respectively.

Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK): Pre-Conditional MGO at RM1.55

By Arun George

  • Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK) will acquire 33.00% of Boustead Plantations (BPLANT MK)‘s outstanding shares from Boustead Holdings/BHB at RM1.55 per share. The purchase is conditional on BHB shareholder approval.
  • Once the purchase becomes unconditional, the joint offerors (KLK, BHB, LTAT) will be required to launch an MGO at RM1.55 per share, a 13.1% premium to the last close. 
  • The MGO will have no minimum acceptance condition. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high. The MGO is expected to be complete in 4Q23.

Cello World Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Cello World Limited (CW IN) is looking to raise around US$210m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are Kotak, JM Financial, ICICI, IIFL, and Motilal Oswal.
  • Cello World (CW) is an Indian consumer products company. The firm is a leading company in the consumerware market in India.
  • According to the Technopak Report, the firm’s consumer houseware, writing instruments and stationery, and moulded furniture and allied products categories are amongst the largest brands in the Indian consumerware market.

Sime Darby/UMW: It’s All About Scale

By David Blennerhassett

  • In one of the largest M&A transactions in Malaysia, Sime Darby (SIME MK) intends to acquire a 61.2% stake in UMW Holdings (UMWH MK) from Permodalan Nasional Bhd for RM3.57bn. 
  • Sime Darby is paying RM5/share, a token 9.9% premium to last close, but more like 25% when factoring in apparent news leakage.
  • Once the stake sale is completed, Sime Darby will launch an unconditional MGO for all remaining shares not held. This transaction is expected to be wrapped up in early 2024.

VIPShop (VIPS US): Attractive Value Play Underappreciated by Investors Looking for Growth

By Eric Chen

  • Over the last decade, VIPShop proved it is the undisputed leader in China’s online discount retail business with the longest streak of profitability and impressive ROE among China internet names.
  • Investors are misplaced to look to the stock for growth. Rather, it is cash cow in mature business with deep moat and run by disciplined management who cares about shareholders.
  • Trading at 4.5x our FY23 earnings excluding net cash, it valuation is attractive even compared to depressed sector comps. Expect 20% CAGR of return by 2025 driven by intrinsic value.

Companies Should Show a Path to Accelerated Profit Growth Rather than Shareholder Returns

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Metrical’s past analysis also shows that a company’s capital allocation to investors is effective in raising valuations, so a proper allocation between investment and shareholder return is a baseline.
  • The correlation analysis between TOPIX and nominal GDP suggests that the shift from deflation to inflation has triggered overseas investors to focus on the further expansion of company profits.
  • While average P/B and ROE have remained flat, the rise in P/E has boosted the stock recently. This suggests that further share price appreciation will require an increase in profits.

Polaris Holdings (3010) – Positioned to Leverage Demand Recovery

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Positioned for a major resurgence in demand – Q1 FY3/2024 results were a culmination of efforts made by management to improve the profit structure of Polaris’ business model, a successful recapitalization strategy, and a recovery in the hotel industry.
  • Demand was normalizing to pre-pandemic levels for Polaris’ domestic and overseas operations, with the business generating a quarterly operating margin of 6.6%, the highest since Q1 FY3/2017.
  • Newly disclosed KPIs highlight robust activity in the domestic market, with Q1 FY3/2024 domestic RevPAR rising 84.9% YoY. 

Liberty/​​Telenet: Re-Opening of Tender Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Liberty has waived the 95% threshold condition. Liberty has now mandatorily opened again the tender given it owns more than 90% (93.43%),  on same terms until 13 September (settlement 27 September).
  • At 5.9x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. 5.4x EV/20e EBITDA for Orange Belgium minorities), the offer is relatively cheap, but also reflects the uncertainties surrounding Citymesh’s entrance and risk of market share losses.
  • Spread is positive. After the second acceptance period closes, I believe the delisting is extremely likely. With limited liquidity and floor dividend no longer guaranteed, recommendation is accept the offer. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Road King Infrastructure, China UnionPay, Deutsche Beteiligungs AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Road King – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • China UnionPay More Than Triples Registered Capital to $1.37 Billion
  • Deutsche Beteiligungs – On track to meet the FY23 guidance


Road King – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Road King’s H1/23 results were mixed in our view. The company reported robust top-line growth, albeit gross profit plunged due to lower ASP of properties delivered. In addition, cash dividends from toll roads declined materially, owing to the non-renewal of the Tangjin expressway concession upon expiry in April.

Positively, Road King’s net debt continued to decrease, as it repaid borrowings using cash collection from property deliveries. The company could sustain its sales momentum in H2/23, as it is poised to launch the So Kwun Wat project (its sole remaining undeveloped project in Hong Kong) for sale.

We believe Road King will remain current on its obligations for the next 12 months. That said, the company’s medium-term prospects appear dim. Moreover, the small and dwindling land bank might suffice for only another two years of development. In the meantime, the company is likely to continue repurchasing offshore bonds.

We move our LARA to “High Risk”. We maintain our “Hold” recommendation on the ROADKG 2024 notes, but move to “Not Recommended” on the remaining notes.


China UnionPay More Than Triples Registered Capital to $1.37 Billion

By Caixin Global

  • Regulators cleared state-backed bank card giant China UnionPay, the world’s largest provider of debit cards, to more than triple its registered capital to almost 10 billion yuan ($1.37 billion).
  • Such a capital increase usually is intended to improve a payment institution’s risk control system and ensure the safety and stability of the business, a senior analyst in the payment industry said.
  • People at UnionPay told Caixin that the capital increase was a distribution of unrealized shareholder equity and was a normal financial adjustment with no impact on its shareholding structure.

Deutsche Beteiligungs – On track to meet the FY23 guidance

By Edison Investment Research

Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAG) posted a 20% NAV total return in the nine months to end-June 2023, thereby recouping the valuation loss in FY22. The uplift to last carrying value from its recently agreed sale of R+S (implying a healthy internal rate of return of over 40%) contributed €14m to its net income in Q323. As a result, management now expects FY23 results to be at the upper half of its guidance of net income at €85–115m and NAV of €610–715m. DBAG’s asset management business delivered a profit of €11.3m in 9M23, on track to meet management’s FY23 guidance of €13–15m. DBAG’s shares currently trade at a c 15% discount to last reported NAV (with the latter not capturing the value of the asset management business).


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Daily Brief Health Care: Wuxi Biologics, Mirxes Holding, Pfizer Inc, Quality Systems, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK): Mixed 1H23 Result; Strong Non-COVID Business Momentum Enhances Visibility
  • Mirxes Pre-IPO: Early Signs of Commercialization Challenges
  • Pfizer Inc: Delving into Their Game Plan For Future Growth! – Major Drivers
  • NextGen Healthcare: What Is The Value That The Company Can Get From A Potential Sale?
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Exploring the Pipeline: From Pain Relief to Sickle Cell Miracles! – Major Drivers


Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK): Mixed 1H23 Result; Strong Non-COVID Business Momentum Enhances Visibility

By Tina Banerjee

  • Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) recorded 8% YoY revenue growth to RMB8.5B in 1H23. Strong momentum continued in the base business, with the non-COVID revenue achieving a 60% YoY growth.  
  • Ramping up of new manufacturing facilities, maintenance shutdown of existing facilities, slowdown in funding environment in China, and increasing expenses have negatively impacted the profitability.
  • Total number of integrated projects reached a new record of 621 with 46 integrated projects added to the pipeline. As of June 30, backlog increased 9% YoY to $20.1B.

Mirxes Pre-IPO: Early Signs of Commercialization Challenges

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Mirxes, a Singapore-headquartered RNA technology company with a focus on cancer screening, plans to raise up to US$100m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In this insight, we examine its key product, GASTROClear’s technical and clinical data. We also look at the competitive landscape.
  • We are of the view that the company’s product, despite improving the accuracy over incumbent competitors marginally, is not a killer product and will face challenges in ramping up sales.

Pfizer Inc: Delving into Their Game Plan For Future Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Pfizer managed to surpass the revenue and earnings expectations of analysts.
  • Operationally, non-COVID-19 revenue increased, but total revenue decreased in the quarter.
  • The projected revenue declines in both PAXLOVID and COMIRNATY principally brought on this loss.

NextGen Healthcare: What Is The Value That The Company Can Get From A Potential Sale?

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special one-time report on NextGen Healthcare (NASDAQ:NXGN) given the prevailing reports of the company exploring a sale.
  • Amidst prevailing economic uncertainties, the healthcare sector is shining brightly as a hub of merger and acquisition (M&A) activities.
  • NextGen Healthcare is at the heart of these discussions, given the recent flurry in its stock price, propelled by whispers of potential strategic shifts, including a possible sale.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals: Exploring the Pipeline: From Pain Relief to Sickle Cell Miracles! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals delivered a solid result and managed an all-around beat last quarter.
  • The company’s continued momentum in all aspects, particularly in the Cystic Fibrosis (CF) business, has led to solid growth in global product revenue.
  • Vertex has strategically invested in promising therapies for severe sickle cell disease, transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia, acute pain relief, and CF treatments.

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