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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu, SHEIN
  • Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?
  • [Blue Lotus Macro]: A Job-Creating Stimulus that Also Saves the Real Estate
  • Industry Report – Cannabis
  • Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended July 7, 2023


New Developments in Postage Fraud Case and US Congress Could Create Big Obstacles for Temu, SHEIN

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Update on the US postage fraud case we reported on earlier: it’s far more expansive than previously reported, and last week the judge ordered that the trial begin in August
  • A new report from the US Congress attacks Temu, SHEIN on two fronts: Xinjiang-made goods and de minimus imports; tighter enforcement or new legislation could soon follow
  • It’s unclear how the postage fraud case and growing Congressional concerns will play out; worst-case, both could dramatically undermine the direct-to-US consumer business model

Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX rises as investors see end of Fed rate hike cycle; Investors continue to doubt the US bull market; China steps in again to support Real Estate market
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; “New” NISA eligible funds expand;  JP investors buy record foreign bonds in H1;  ON THE STREET:Mit Motors to BUY; Toyota to Neutral
  • NUGGET. Push for more women on boards continue in Japan – still lagging, but trend is up. Will it play out in valuations? Global Evidence Supportive.

[Blue Lotus Macro]: A Job-Creating Stimulus that Also Saves the Real Estate

By Shawn Yang

  • Forty to sixty percent of the world’s carbon emission takes place in buildings. Energy efficiency job is the single largest component that balances the job loss
  • In traditional energy and job gain in renewable energy. China is materially behind the US in energy efficiency; We believe inclusion of energy efficiency in the upcoming stimulus package 
  • Will be a sound choice to boost employment and GDP, and our listed companies in the new energy sector shall benefit from the trend.

Industry Report – Cannabis

By Water Tower Research

  • After a strong 1H23, global equities were down this week. The MSCI World Index fell 1.42%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.06%.
  • The decline was driven by strongerthan-expected labor market data and concerns that this may make the Fed less accommodating.
  • The Russell 2000 finished the week down 1.32%, while the NASDAQ declined 0.92%.

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor Week Ended July 7, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended July 7, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 3.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.2%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (down 0.9%).
  • Advanced Transportation Solutions (75.2% of the index) contributed to the index’s outperformance, rising 4.7%, while Energy Technology (6.5% of the index) was up 0.4% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was down 0.8%.

  • Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.3x versus 20.5x for the S&P 500.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Celsius Liquidations Could Pressure Altcoin Markets and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Celsius Liquidations Could Pressure Altcoin Markets


Celsius Liquidations Could Pressure Altcoin Markets

By Kaiko

  • Last week, bankrupt crypto lender Celsius gained court approval to convert its altcoin holdings into more liquid BTC and ETH as part of its restructuring plan.
  • The company has reportedly moved some of its holdings to market maker Wintermute and stablecoin issuer Paxos.
  • As of end-March, Celsius held more than $2B in BTC, ETH and stETH and a mixed bag of liquid and illiquid altcoins, including $240mn of its own CEL token.

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Daily Brief ECM: Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently
  • PhilEnergy IPO: Trading Strategy on the First Day of Trading
  • Oddity Tech IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth and Profitability, Solid Upside With Limited Risk
  • Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks
  • Syngenta Pre-IPO – The Positives – Giant in the Agriculture Industry Set to Benefit from Policies
  • Unisound AI Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Socionext (6526 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the announcement of the US$1.9 billion secondary placement, Socionext (6526 JP)’s shares are down -25.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY21,950 per share (5 July).
  • So far, Socionext’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 11 July. Due to the steep share price decline, Socionext is trading at an undemanding multiple compared to global SoC peers.  

Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Kelun-Biotech raised HKD 1,259m (USD 161m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, July 10th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products. We were of the view that the IPO is fairly priced, at best.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

PhilEnergy IPO: Trading Strategy on the First Day of Trading

By Douglas Kim

  • PhilEnergy IPO will start trading this Friday on 14 July. We believe that PhilEnergy’s share price will surge higher on the first day of trading.
  • We believe PhilEnergy’s shares could OVERSHOOT by more than 200% versus the IPO price on the first day of trading, which would be more than 102,00 won or more.
  • Our trading strategy on PhilEnergy on the first day of trading would be to take partial profits (30-50%) if its price overshoots higher (by 200% or more than IPO price).

Oddity Tech IPO Valuation Analysis: Growth and Profitability, Solid Upside With Limited Risk

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Oddity Tech, the owner of popular and fastest-growing global brands IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild, set terms for an upcoming IPO. The company offers ~10.5M Class A shares. 
  • Selling shareholders (private equity firm L. Catterton and Oran Holtzman, Co-founder & CEO) offer ~8.77M Class A shares, while Oddity Tech offers ~1.75M Class A shares.
  • The net proceeds from the sale of Class A shares will be ~$41M. Oddity Tech will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares by the selling shareholders. 

Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. 
  • HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
  • This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.

Syngenta Pre-IPO – The Positives – Giant in the Agriculture Industry Set to Benefit from Policies

By Clarence Chu

  • Syngenta Group (1844795D CH) is looking to raise around US$9.2bn in its upcoming China A-share IPO.
  • Syngenta Group (Syngenta) is one of the largest agricultural firms globally, developing, producing and commercializing a portfolio of crop protection, seeds, crop nutrition products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Unisound AI Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Unisound AI Technology (1053075D CH) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Haitong International.
  • The firm offers AI solutions centered around its computing cluster, scheduling computing power for machine learning tasks. It provides support to the development, optimization and commercialization of frontier AI models. 
  • Its computing cluster currently harbors a computing power of over 200 peta floating point operations per second (PFLOPS), and a storage capacity of over 1.6 petabytes (PB). 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Steady At Execution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Steady At Execution, Good Long-Term Play
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Packaging Tech Ahead of Samsung; China Rare Earths Restrictions Plays; DRAM
  • Recruit Holdings: Disappointing Job Data for May; More Downside Ahead
  • [Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$116) Target Price Change]: CMR Improves on Expanded Merchant Base
  • Heroz (4382) – Tailoring Business Growth Opportunities
  • Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover
  • The Kraft Heinz Company: Winning the Market with Their Easy Meals and Taste Elevation! – Key Drivers
  • Honda Motor Co.
  • PDD Holdings Inc.: 3 Major Factors Responsible For Its Recovery – Key Drivers
  • Jabil Inc.: Harnessing AI to Transform the Industry – Key Drivers


Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Steady At Execution, Good Long-Term Play

By Sameer Taneja

  • It attracts investors when a company’s 15-year ROCE averages over 25% (and has never gone below 20%). Sheng Siong (SSG SP) is one of those companies.
  • With 13% of the market capitalization in net cash (283 mn SGD) and a payout ratio averaging 70%, the stock trades at a yield of almost 4%.
  • We believe the store expansion of 3-4 stores/year ( on a base of 67) in Singapore is possible, given the pipeline of HDB tenders.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Packaging Tech Ahead of Samsung; China Rare Earths Restrictions Plays; DRAM

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC winning with Nvidia’s business, beating Samsung due to TSMC’s advanced packaging technology; this highlights the rising importance and complexity of chip packaging.
  • China export restrictions for rare earths used in semiconductors highlight opportunity for U.S. and Australian rare earths producers. We identify two potential plays.
  • Nanya Technology Earnings: DRAM market has bottomed, sees industry improvement ahead. We see a trading Long opportunity.

Recruit Holdings: Disappointing Job Data for May; More Downside Ahead

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ’s share price has been down over the last few days following release of job openings data for May 2023 by the US Department of Labour.
  • The no. of job openings in the US in May 2023 decreased to 9.8m vs 11.3m in May 2022. It has also declined compared to 10.1m reported in April 2023.
  • Moreover, web traffic on Recruit’s job platforms Indeed and Glassdoor have also decreased in June 2023 compared to May.

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$116) Target Price Change]: CMR Improves on Expanded Merchant Base

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect BABA to report C2Q23 (F1Q24) top-line and non-IFRS net income 2% and 21.5% vs. consensus. For C2Q23, we raised (1) Taobao/Tmall GMV/CMR estimates due to return of merchants, 
  • (2) International Commerce and Cainiao revenue estimates, and (3) EBITA margin estimates for all groups except cloud. We maintain our BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 116 TP, 
  • Due to 1) merchants return to Taobao/Tmall;  2) independent listing of groups; and 3) improved incentive structure after the organizational change.

Heroz (4382) – Tailoring Business Growth Opportunities

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • HEROZ is an AI technology company that provides advanced AI development expertise to both B2C and B2B sectors.
  • With a strategic focus on AI SaaS, it has embarked on a ‘buy-to-build’ strategy to develop profitable recurring revenue streams and accelerate earnings growth.
  • In September 2022, it consolidated VarioSecure (4494), a subsidiary offering network security services, and in August 2022 acquired Strategit, a SaaS integration development support business.

Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover

By Tina Banerjee

  • Moderna Inc (MRNA US) has submitted marketing authorization applications for the investigational RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, in Europe and Australia and initiated submission process in the U.S.
  • Moderna anticipates to launch RSV vaccine in 2024 in US. Each year in US, approximately 60,000–120,000 older adults are hospitalized, and 6,000–10,000 of them die due to RSV infection.
  • This year, FDA has already approved two RSV vaccines, Arexvy from GSK and Abrysvo from Pfizer, which are scheduled to be launched in the U.S. by this fall.

The Kraft Heinz Company: Winning the Market with Their Easy Meals and Taste Elevation! – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kraft Heinz delivered a positive result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • In the quarter, the company introduced It Has to be HEINZ, a new worldwide campaign that represents the brand’s first unification under a single creative approach.
  • We give The Kraft Heinz Company a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Honda Motor Co.

By Baptista Research

  • Honda Motor’s results were a major disappointment as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street. but, their efforts in cost reduction and improved pricing strategies helped maintain an operating profit margin above 5%.
  • Additionally, they aim to provide attractive dividends to shareholders, with a significant increase per share and a share buyback program.

PDD Holdings Inc.: 3 Major Factors Responsible For Its Recovery – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PDD delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter and the company saw clear recovery trends.
  • Revenue increased in the quarter and contributed to a total of RMB37.6 billion.
  • PDD has also launched its electronic shopping season and invested millions of RMB for promoting universal and high-quality access to reading.

Jabil Inc.: Harnessing AI to Transform the Industry – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jabil delivered a strong result and managed an all-around beat in the last quarter.
  • The company’s growth was driven by improved profitability in electric vehicles, healthcare, renewable energy infrastructure, and cloud sectors.
  • The healthcare sector also presents opportunities for Jabil, with increasing interest from OEMs seeking outsourcing manufacturing solutions.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Kelun Biotech, Boiron SA, Moderna Inc, HighTide Therapeutics, Illumina Inc, Unitedhealth Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently
  • Opportunistic Deal with Grounds for a Bump-Up
  • Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover
  • Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks
  • Illumina Inc.: Expansion of Genomics Capacity With New Pact & Other Drivers
  • UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: Volatility En Route


Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰) IPO Trading: Lukewarm Demand but Peers Have Done Well Recently

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Kelun-Biotech raised HKD 1,259m (USD 161m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, July 10th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s business lines of ADC products. We were of the view that the IPO is fairly priced, at best.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

Opportunistic Deal with Grounds for a Bump-Up

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Prior to announcement, net cash of Boiron SA (BOI FP) represented 1/3rd of market cap. Most of that cash will now be distributed, conditional on deal success. 
  • Although the premium is 36%, at 9.2x EV/Fwd EBIT, the offer seems cheap vs. comparables. The deal is neutral for the Boirons, whom will get a c.€126 million special dividend.
  • The offer facilitates the entry of a private equity healthcare specialist. Delisting requires acceptances from 57.6% of the float. Gross spread is +0.4%. Investors may require an offer around €52.

Moderna (MRNA US): Second Product Submission Is Not Big Enough Needle-Mover

By Tina Banerjee

  • Moderna Inc (MRNA US) has submitted marketing authorization applications for the investigational RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, in Europe and Australia and initiated submission process in the U.S.
  • Moderna anticipates to launch RSV vaccine in 2024 in US. Each year in US, approximately 60,000–120,000 older adults are hospitalized, and 6,000–10,000 of them die due to RSV infection.
  • This year, FDA has already approved two RSV vaccines, Arexvy from GSK and Abrysvo from Pfizer, which are scheduled to be launched in the U.S. by this fall.

Pre-IPO HighTide Therapeutics – Its Outlook in NASH Field Is Not Optimistic, with High Risks

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The mechanism of NASH has not yet been accurately determined. Among the major players, FDA has postponed the approval of OCA (FXR) for NASH. THR-β is currently the most promising. 
  • HighTide claims that HTD1801 is able to achieve the goal of improving effectiveness and reducing toxicity. However, HTD1801 hasn’t reached pathological endpoints. We’ll have to wait for future clinical data.
  • This Company actually has high risk due to cash shortage and uncertain R&D progress, which could lead to lower-than-expected stock price performance. We are conservative about HighTide based on analysis.

Illumina Inc.: Expansion of Genomics Capacity With New Pact & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Illumina managed to surpass the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
  • In Q1, Illumina produced revenue of about $1.09 billion.
  • Illumina also unveiled Illumina Complete Long-Read technology and Illumina Connected Insights.

UnitedHealth Q2 Earnings Preview: Volatility En Route

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is set to release its second-quarter results on Friday, the 14th.
  • However, its Q2 report is tough to call, we warn investors that volatility will likely surface within the coming days.
  • UnitedHealth is a surreal earnings beater, but it’s a surreal beater.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Basket Performance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Basket Performance
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2023)
  • JSR (4185 JP) Takeover – Why So Wide? FUD and Flows
  • Chindata (CD US): China Merchants Capital’s Rival Privatisation Offer
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September
  • Costa – Another Bite at the Apple for Paine Schwartz?
  • Hyundai G.F. Holdings: A Holdco Creation With In-Kind Investment in HDS & Hyundai Green Food
  • Posco DX’s KOSPI Transfer Listing: Hankyung Exclusive Report
  • Opportunistic Deal with Grounds for a Bump-Up


ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes & Basket Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • One third of the way through the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
  • Passive trackers are estimated to trade around +/-0.5 days ADV on most of the potential adds/deletes, though there are some deletes that will have over 1 day ADV to sell.
  • The potential inclusion to one or both indices have outperformed the potential deletes by a huge margin in the 5 months. We’d wait for a pullback to re-enter positions.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • Anycolor (5032 JP) and Lifedrink (2585 JP) have already confirmed their moves to the Prime Market and are expected to have TOPIX Inclusion Events at the end of July 2023.
  • More recently, Plus Alpha Consulting (4071 JP) announced their move to the Prime Market and are likely to have a TOPIX Inclusion Event at the end of August 2023.

JSR (4185 JP) Takeover – Why So Wide? FUD and Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • In the last week of June, Japanese government-affiliated Japan Investment Corp (“JIC”) announced it would take over JSR Corp (4185 JP). A “surprise” but perhaps not totally. 
  • It traded tight, then it traded back out. Then worse. Then worse again. There were good reasons for this. There were perhaps less good reasons too. 
  • FUD and Flows mean that it is likely to continue to trade wide for the near future.

Chindata (CD US): China Merchants Capital’s Rival Privatisation Offer

By Arun George

  • China Merchants Capital (CMC) disclosed a competing preliminary non-binding proposal to acquire Chindata Group (CD US) at US$9.20 per ADS, a 15.0% premium to Bain Capital’s US$8.00 per ADS offer.
  • Astonishingly, Chindata did not publicly disclose the CMC offer, which was sent to the special committee on 9 June, i.e., 34 days ago.
  • CMC must get Bain Capital’s support due to its 92.34% voting rights. The presence of a credible competing proposal will require Bain Capital to match CMC’s offer.

S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.
  • Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.

Costa – Another Bite at the Apple for Paine Schwartz?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in October 2022, Costa Group (CGC AU), one of Australia’s largest fresh fruit and vegetable producers, was understood to have been approached by its former major shareholder, Paine Schwartz.
  • This was discussed in Costa Group’s Low-Hanging Fruit: Paine Schwartz Renews Interest. At the time, media reports speculated Paine Schwartz had no current intention of making a takeover bid.
  • Last week, Paine Schwartz made an A$3.50/share NBIO by way of a Scheme. Paine Schwartz currently holds 14.84%.

Hyundai G.F. Holdings: A Holdco Creation With In-Kind Investment in HDS & Hyundai Green Food

By Douglas Kim

  • Last week, Hyundai Dept Store Group announced that it will establish a single holding company structure with Hyundai G.F. Holdings controlling all of the group affiliates.
  • Hyundai G.F. Holdings plans to make an in-kind investment in Hyundai Department Store (HDS) to make Hyundai Green Food and Hyundai Department Store as subsidiaries.
  • This in-kind investment in HDS and Hyundai Green Food by Hyundai G.F. Holdings is not a deal that adds clear-cut value to Hyundai G.F. Holdings’ shareholders. 

Posco DX’s KOSPI Transfer Listing: Hankyung Exclusive Report

By Sanghyun Park

  • Posco DX has begun the selection process for its lead underwriter for its transfer to the KOSPI market and plans to complete the transfer listing within this year.
  • Considering the recent retail insanity witnessed in most local large-cap battery stocks, Posco DX will likely experience further intensified short-term price fluctuations with this new development as a catalyst.
  • The likely replacement for Posco DX’s KOSDAQ 150 spot is Konan Technology, which has become a top reserved issue in Posco DX’s GICS sector (Information Technology) in the previous review.

Opportunistic Deal with Grounds for a Bump-Up

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Prior to announcement, net cash of Boiron SA (BOI FP) represented 1/3rd of market cap. Most of that cash will now be distributed, conditional on deal success. 
  • Although the premium is 36%, at 9.2x EV/Fwd EBIT, the offer seems cheap vs. comparables. The deal is neutral for the Boirons, whom will get a c.€126 million special dividend.
  • The offer facilitates the entry of a private equity healthcare specialist. Delisting requires acceptances from 57.6% of the float. Gross spread is +0.4%. Investors may require an offer around €52.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JSR Corp, Liontown Resources, Gold, Syngenta Group, Zephyr Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • JSR (4185 JP) Takeover – Why So Wide? FUD and Flows
  • S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September
  • Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush
  • Syngenta Pre-IPO – The Positives – Giant in the Agriculture Industry Set to Benefit from Policies
  • Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): First payment from insurance received


JSR (4185 JP) Takeover – Why So Wide? FUD and Flows

By Travis Lundy

  • In the last week of June, Japanese government-affiliated Japan Investment Corp (“JIC”) announced it would take over JSR Corp (4185 JP). A “surprise” but perhaps not totally. 
  • It traded tight, then it traded back out. Then worse. Then worse again. There were good reasons for this. There were perhaps less good reasons too. 
  • FUD and Flows mean that it is likely to continue to trade wide for the near future.

S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.
  • Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush

By The Commodity Report

  • Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive – as the Fed will likely do more rate hikes.
  • The, in some parts, stronger-than-expected job market data we received last week confirmed that view once again.
  • We find it interesting that gold hasn’t shown more weakness yet – even as rates continue to rise again.

Syngenta Pre-IPO – The Positives – Giant in the Agriculture Industry Set to Benefit from Policies

By Clarence Chu

  • Syngenta Group (1844795D CH) is looking to raise around US$9.2bn in its upcoming China A-share IPO.
  • Syngenta Group (Syngenta) is one of the largest agricultural firms globally, developing, producing and commercializing a portfolio of crop protection, seeds, crop nutrition products.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): First payment from insurance received

By Auctus Advisors

  • Initial invoices submitted to the insurer have now been approved and reimbursement totalling ~US$0.8 mm have been received.
  • Additional invoices are being submitted on a regular basis with payments expected within 30 days of receipt by the insurer.
  • Greater costs will come later in the process and are expected to be regularly re-imbursed as invoices are submitted.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai G.F. Holdings, Konan Technology, PhilEnergy and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hyundai G.F. Holdings: A Holdco Creation With In-Kind Investment in HDS & Hyundai Green Food
  • Posco DX’s KOSPI Transfer Listing: Hankyung Exclusive Report
  • PhilEnergy IPO: Trading Strategy on the First Day of Trading


Hyundai G.F. Holdings: A Holdco Creation With In-Kind Investment in HDS & Hyundai Green Food

By Douglas Kim

  • Last week, Hyundai Dept Store Group announced that it will establish a single holding company structure with Hyundai G.F. Holdings controlling all of the group affiliates.
  • Hyundai G.F. Holdings plans to make an in-kind investment in Hyundai Department Store (HDS) to make Hyundai Green Food and Hyundai Department Store as subsidiaries.
  • This in-kind investment in HDS and Hyundai Green Food by Hyundai G.F. Holdings is not a deal that adds clear-cut value to Hyundai G.F. Holdings’ shareholders. 

Posco DX’s KOSPI Transfer Listing: Hankyung Exclusive Report

By Sanghyun Park

  • Posco DX has begun the selection process for its lead underwriter for its transfer to the KOSPI market and plans to complete the transfer listing within this year.
  • Considering the recent retail insanity witnessed in most local large-cap battery stocks, Posco DX will likely experience further intensified short-term price fluctuations with this new development as a catalyst.
  • The likely replacement for Posco DX’s KOSDAQ 150 spot is Konan Technology, which has become a top reserved issue in Posco DX’s GICS sector (Information Technology) in the previous review.

PhilEnergy IPO: Trading Strategy on the First Day of Trading

By Douglas Kim

  • PhilEnergy IPO will start trading this Friday on 14 July. We believe that PhilEnergy’s share price will surge higher on the first day of trading.
  • We believe PhilEnergy’s shares could OVERSHOOT by more than 200% versus the IPO price on the first day of trading, which would be more than 102,00 won or more.
  • Our trading strategy on PhilEnergy on the first day of trading would be to take partial profits (30-50%) if its price overshoots higher (by 200% or more than IPO price).

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Daily Brief Singapore: Sheng Siong, SGX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Steady At Execution, Good Long-Term Play
  • Singapore Code of Conduct for ESG Ratings Is Less Risk and More Reward


Sheng Siong (SSG SP): Steady At Execution, Good Long-Term Play

By Sameer Taneja

  • It attracts investors when a company’s 15-year ROCE averages over 25% (and has never gone below 20%). Sheng Siong (SSG SP) is one of those companies.
  • With 13% of the market capitalization in net cash (283 mn SGD) and a payout ratio averaging 70%, the stock trades at a yield of almost 4%.
  • We believe the store expansion of 3-4 stores/year ( on a base of 67) in Singapore is possible, given the pipeline of HDB tenders.

Singapore Code of Conduct for ESG Ratings Is Less Risk and More Reward

By Kyle Rudden

  • The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) recently launched a public consultation regarding a Code of Conduct for ESG ratings providers and ESG data product providers in Singapore.
  • It is the right approach for Singapore – a voluntary best-practices framework furthering one of the world’s most credible “green” economies, not a regulatory force-fix of something broken.
  • No surprise ratings methodology changes. No en masse upgrades/downgrades. No acute shocks to the system. Just slow and steady progress for ESG investing and finance in Singapore.

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Daily Brief Australia: Liontown Resources, Costa Group Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September
  • Costa – Another Bite at the Apple for Paine Schwartz?


S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.
  • Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.

Costa – Another Bite at the Apple for Paine Schwartz?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in October 2022, Costa Group (CGC AU), one of Australia’s largest fresh fruit and vegetable producers, was understood to have been approached by its former major shareholder, Paine Schwartz.
  • This was discussed in Costa Group’s Low-Hanging Fruit: Paine Schwartz Renews Interest. At the time, media reports speculated Paine Schwartz had no current intention of making a takeover bid.
  • Last week, Paine Schwartz made an A$3.50/share NBIO by way of a Scheme. Paine Schwartz currently holds 14.84%.

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