Daily Briefs

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price.
The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative.

Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing

By David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) has announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm.
The same day as the dual proposals, Dongfeng announced an interim loss (1H25). Evidently, the way forward – from an investor standpoint – is electric, not internal combustion engines.
The cash terms + scrip (into the EV listing) under the proposals are attractive. Even after this morning’s move (+53.6%) in Dongfeng’s share price.

[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?

Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be “low” – likely 4-6% of Sony’s price.
Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider’s set of large-midcap indices.
There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager “I don’t want this” overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP)

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

By Special Situation Investments

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) replace Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
There are 5 constituent changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) leading to 4 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX).
There will be global passive buying in Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.

Nissan Motor Placement – Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust aims to raise around US$330m via selling its 3.8% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP).
The discount seems enticing, however, the company’s recent share performance and longer term track record aren’t great.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks

Smart Share Global’s management consortium offered $1.25/ADS, with Hillhouse’s competing bid at $1.77/ADS, a 33% spread.
Mayne Pharma’s trial delayed to September 22, with Harvest Lane trimming its stake; spread to Cosette’s offer is 47%.
Gore Street Energy Storage faced significant shareholder dissent; RM Funds calls for Chairman’s resignation amid strategic review efforts.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII): Methodology Change & Impact

Last evening, Hang Seng announced a methodology change for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) with implementation in two phases.
The capping methodology will be updated at the September rebalance and the turnover and sector requirements will be updated at the December rebalance.
The updated capping scheme increases turnover and flow in September, while there could be one constituent change for the index at the December rebalance.

Surprise National Assembly Moves: 2nd Commercial Act Amendments & Yellow Envelope Law

By Sanghyun Park

Major governance shake-up: >KRW 2T companies face mandatory cumulative voting, giving minorities real board influence, while audit committee split votes expand from 1 to 2+, boosting independence.
Trade sweet spot is holdcos and brokers with high treasury stock and retail float. Bloated buybacks may drive cancellations, sparking quick momentum trades in messy-governance names.
Today, holdcos and brokers with 10%+ treasury stock and >₩500bn market cap are leading pops, driving action and attracting fast-money flows.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma, Scentre Group, Yancoal Australia, Iron Ore, Phosphagenics Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)
Earnings as Catalyst for Scentre Group (SCG AU) Vs. Stockland (SGP AU) As Price Ratio Widens
Woodside (WDS AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Spread Deviation Sparks Trading Signal
Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term
Avecho Biotechnology Ltd – Waking the sleeping giant

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) is seeking to raise US$600 million, Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Earnings as Catalyst for Scentre Group (SCG AU) Vs. Stockland (SGP AU) As Price Ratio Widens

Context: The Scentre Group (SCG AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights:Stockland (SGP AU) rallied 7.0% on 20 August after reporting results, creating a gap between the two stocks. Scentre Group (SCG AU) is set to report on 26 August,
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Woodside (WDS AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Spread Deviation Sparks Trading Signal

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Context: The Woodside (WDS AU) vs. Yancoal (YAL AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: With Yancoal experiencing a sharp price drop after reporting earnings last week, the historically well-aligned price ratio has spiked, generating a trading signal.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term

By Sameer Taneja

This is a follow-up on our insight from 2 weeks ago, Iron Ore: Pullback From 102 USD/Ton to 95 USD/Ton, where we estimated a pullback on the iron ore price.
With mill margins retreating into negative territory and TSF numbers (although healthy) coming far below street expectations, the stage is set for iron ore to retreat to 95 USD/ton.
Despite iron ore prices retreating to the 95 USD/ton level, we like Fenix Resources (FEX AU)(Read: Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF ).

Avecho Biotechnology Ltd – Waking the sleeping giant

Avecho Biotechnology Limited (ASX:AVE) is an Australian biotech company focused on enhancing drug absorption through its proprietary TPM (Tocopheryl Phosphate Mixture).
AVE is currently focusing its efforts on a CBD (cannabidiol) soft-gel capsule for treating insomnia.
AVE is currently undergoing a pivotal Phase III clinical trial of the drug with the potential to be the first over-the-counter (OTC) CBD sleep aid approved by Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), meaning the drug could be purchased directly and easily at a pharmacy without any prescription required from a doctor.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Indonesia: Bayan Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ): Ultra-Low-Cost Coal Champion Trading at a Steep Premium

By Rahul Jain

Bayan Resources delivered solid H1 2025 results with strong volumes and margins but faces an ambitious ramp-up challenge in H2 to meet full-year targets.
The company’s 2025 guidance calls for 70–72 million tonnes sales, revenue of US$4.1–4.4 billion, and EBITDA of US$1.4–1.6 billion, supported by Tabang expansion and stable costs.
Despite solid fundamentals, Bayan trades at a steep premium with P/E of ~39x and EV/EBITDA of ~27x, far above Indonesian coal peers.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief India: Max Healthcare Institute and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) replace Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
There are 5 constituent changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) leading to 4 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX).
There will be global passive buying in Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 22nd): Air China and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 22nd): Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass
HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, TraHK HSI ETF, China Hongqiao, Wuxi Apptec
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 15th): Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Wistron
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 22nd): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Doosan Enerbility, Alteogen
Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): Intouch, True, Siri Prime Office Property Fd, CP ALL
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): King Yuan Electronics, Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision
Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): YTL Power International, Public Bank, WCE, UEM Sunrise
HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 22nd): China Life, Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, AIA, Li Auto, Anta

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 22nd): Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.0% as of Aug 22nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, TraHK HSI ETF, China Hongqiao, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 15th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Tencent, TraHK HSI ETF, China Hongqiao, Wuxi Apptec.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 15th): Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Wistron

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 15th. The aggregated holding was USD1,198.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD374mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hon Hai Precision, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Wistron, Zhen Ding Technology, Hon Hai Precision, Zhen Ding Technology, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Wistron.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 22nd): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Doosan Enerbility, Alteogen

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 22nd. The aggregated holding was USD632.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,182mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Doosan Enerbility, Alteogen, Samyang Food.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): Intouch, True, Siri Prime Office Property Fd, CP ALL

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Aug 22nd. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, True, Siri Prime Office Property Fd, CP ALL, Bangkok Dusit, CP ALL, Bangkok Dusit, True.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): King Yuan Electronics, Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 22nd. The aggregated short interest was USD25.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in King Yuan Electronics, Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision, HTC, Wiwynn, King Yuan Electronics, Alchip Technologies, Hon Hai Precision, HTC, Wiwynn.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Aug 22nd): YTL Power International, Public Bank, WCE, UEM Sunrise

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Aug 22nd. The aggregated short interest is USD408m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in YTL Power International, Public Bank, WCE, UEM Sunrise, Kossan Rubber Industries.

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 22nd): China Life, Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, AIA, Li Auto, Anta

We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 22nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Life, Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou, AIA, Li Auto, Anta, Geely Automobile.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Japan: Shibaura Electronics, Daiichi Sankyo, Minebea Mitsumi, Denso Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP)
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days
ECM Weekly (25 August 2025)- Hansoh, Daiichi, IFAST, Guzman, Vikram, Shuandeng, Jiaxin, Forest, Aux
MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead
Denso Corp(6902JP)-Focus on RoE Maximization, Tariff Costs Mitigation & Cross-Shareholding Reduction

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of 🐓 over Shibaura (6957 JP)

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Method in the Madness as Yageo Bumps Twice in Two Days

On 21 August, Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) increased its Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) offer by 7.0% to JPY6,635. On 23 August, Yageo further increased its offer by 7.5% to JPY7,130.
The offer is partially in reaction to Minebea’s recent comments around Yageo securing FEFTA approval. Crucially, Yageo finally provided an update suggesting that only a few issues remained.
Yageo’s JPY7,130 offer is not over-the-top, as Minebea’s 10x EV/EBIT pricing guideline outlined on 18 August potentially justified a JPY7,300 offer. The likelihood of Minebea walking has increased.

ECM Weekly (25 August 2025)- Hansoh, Daiichi, IFAST, Guzman, Vikram, Shuandeng, Jiaxin, Forest, Aux

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, there was a lack of fireworks from last week’s listing. This week might have some better luck.
On the placements front, there was no dearth of deals with raisings across the region.

MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead

By Rahul Jain

MinebeaMitsumi is focused on expanding semiconductor backend capacity with the Cebu Mitsumi facility, ramping aerospace machining in India, and scaling AI/data center cooling bearings through FY27–28.
In Q1 FY26, MinebeaMitsumi posted record revenues of ¥366.9bn (+3.2% YoY), though operating income declined 7.8% YoY to ¥17.4bn due to yen appreciation and rare-earth supply disruptions.
Trading at a reasonable 8.1× EV/EBITDA and 20.9× P/E (TTM), the stock offers a mid-range multiple relative to peers like Nidec and NSK, reflecting a stable but cyclical industrial franchise.

Denso Corp(6902JP)-Focus on RoE Maximization, Tariff Costs Mitigation & Cross-Shareholding Reduction

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Focus on RoE Maximization : Denso Corp (6902 JP) targets FY2026 ROE of 10.7%, leveraging disciplined capital allocation, cost efficiency, and improved profit recovery to exceed cost of capital.
Tariff Cost Mitigation: Company absorbed ¥12.5bn tariff hit in Q1, with full-year ¥130bn impact offset through US localization and pricing negotiations from Q2 onward.
.Cross-Holding Reduction: Accelerated divestment of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) , coupled with ~¥610bn buybacks, underscores commitment to resolve cross-holding overhang and boost shareholder returns.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Meta, Boeing Co, Amdocs Ltd, Copper, Duolingo, Trimble Navigation, Cf Industries Holdings, Bio Techne Corp, Dutch Bros Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective
Meta Is Ripping Apart Its AI Division—& Betting Big To Catch OpenAI
Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!
Amdocs: Surging Ahead By Transforming Cloud, Data, & Network Monetization!
Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton
Duolingo’s Expansion Beyond Languages With Math
Trimble Doubles TC1 Bookings Across Europe—Will Expansion Unlock a Global Revenue Surge?
CF Industries: An Insight Into Its Carbon Capture & Sequestration Initiatives & Critical Growth Levers!
Bio-Techne Faces NIH & Tariff Uncertainty–Can They Outpace Policy Risks?
Dutch Bros: A Tale Of Beverage Innovation and Product Diversification!

Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective

By Patrick Liao

Intel has reached an agreement with the U.S. government, under which Washington will invest $8.9bn for a 9.9% equity stake in the company.
Intel benefits from the optics of government backing, which could help sentiment and prevent downside pressure on the stock in the short term, i.e. near-term optics positive, fundamentals unchanged.
TSMC’s Japan and Germany fabs were structured through co-investments and partnerships, with equity involvement only when tied to technology access (e.g., Sony CMOS JV).

Meta Is Ripping Apart Its AI Division—& Betting Big To Catch OpenAI

In a high-stakes move to stay competitive in the rapidly evolving AI landscape, Meta Platforms is radically restructuring its artificial intelligence organization.
The company is dismantling its existing Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL) and splitting it into four specialized groups—focused on research, product, infrastructure, and superintelligence.
This development follows months of internal tension and strategic uncertainty, culminating in a significant leadership pivot with the appointment of Scale AI’s founder Alexandr Wang as Meta’s new Chief AI Officer.

Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!

After years of turbulence, Boeing is closing in on a potential mega-deal to sell up to 500 aircraft to China.
This development comes at a time when the U.S. aerospace giant continues to wrestle with production inefficiencies, regulatory scrutiny, safety lapses, and supply chain instability.
The proposed transaction—still contingent on easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China—would mark the largest commercial order since President Trump’s 2017 visit and may serve as the centerpiece of a broader trade agreement between the two economic superpowers.

Amdocs: Surging Ahead By Transforming Cloud, Data, & Network Monetization!

Amdocs recently announced its financial performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, which showcased mixed results and highlighted the company’s strategic focus areas and operational achievements.
The company recorded a revenue of $1.14 billion, marking a 3.5% increase in pro forma constant currency compared to the previous year.
This was aided by significant contributions from various regions, most notably a record quarter in Europe.

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

By Sameer Taneja

Following the recent COMEX-LME trade fiasco and the underwhelming TSF data, copper’s market sentiment was positively influenced by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s indication of a potential rate cut next month.
We anticipate that this development could drive copper prices on the LME above $10,000 USD/ton in the near term, before a subsequent reassertion of fundamental factors.
Earlier, there was downward pressure on copper prices due to China’s softening economic performance and the rising levels of inventory in the market.

Duolingo’s Expansion Beyond Languages With Math

Duolingo’s second-quarter 2025 results illustrate a company in a robust growth phase, marked by strong financial performance and promising strategic developments, balanced with some areas requiring further attention.
On the positive side, Duolingo continues to show impressive financial strength with record profitability and solid top-line growth across all subscription tiers.
This performance has enabled the company to once again raise its full-year guidance, highlighting confidence in its ongoing strategy.

Trimble Doubles TC1 Bookings Across Europe—Will Expansion Unlock a Global Revenue Surge?

Trimble’s second quarter of 2025 financial results demonstrate a mixed performance with notable strengths and some areas of challenge.
Organized around its Connect & Scale strategy, the company reported a revenue of $876 million for the quarter, reflecting a 9% organic increase.
The annual recurring revenue (ARR) hit $2.21 billion, marking a 14% organic rise, while earnings per share (EPS) grew by 15% to $0.71.

CF Industries: An Insight Into Its Carbon Capture & Sequestration Initiatives & Critical Growth Levers!

CF Industries’ first half and second quarter of 2025 financial results reveal a mixture of operational successes and broader market challenges.
The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion for the first half, evidencing strong operational performance amidst a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance.
CF Industries has successfully launched the Donaldsonville Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Project, which began operations in July and is anticipated to generate significant returns due to tax benefits and low-carbon product premiums.

Bio-Techne Faces NIH & Tariff Uncertainty–Can They Outpace Policy Risks?

Bio-Techne Corporation recently shared their financial outcomes for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year 2025.
The company reported a solid quarter, with a 3% organic revenue growth driven mainly by the biopharma end markets, particularly among large pharmaceutical clients.
This growth was attributed to the company’s products, such as automated proteomic analytical instruments and cell therapy solutions.

Dutch Bros: A Tale Of Beverage Innovation and Product Diversification!

Dutch Bros Coffee reported strong results for the second quarter of 2025, supported by robust performance across multiple business metrics and the execution of strategic initiatives.
The company experienced a notable revenue growth of 28%, and system same-shop sales growth of 6.1%.
Company-operated same-shop sales increased by 7.8%, driven by a 3.7% rise in transactions.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief China: BYD, CaoCao, Dongfeng Motor, Tencent, ENN Energy, China Telecom (H), Shanghai Conant Optical, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Horizon Robotics, Lenovo and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade
HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Healthcare Index Review Announced; 10 ADDs, 4 DELs, 1 More Member Net
A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Internet & IT Index Review; Funding Flows Dominate in $850mm Trade
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSTECH Review Announced; No Name Changes, Big Flows

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$4bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.3% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$31.1bn (US$4bn). There is plenty to buy in Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), BYD (1211 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK).
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 22 Deletes, Changes to Southbound Stock Connect & BIG Outperformance

There are 24 adds and 22 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 504.
We expect 20 of the 24 HSCI inclusions to be Stock Connect adds from the open on 8 September. 19 of the 22 deletions could be removed from Stock Connect.
On average, stocks that are expected to be added to Southbound Stock Connect have outperformed stocks that are expected to be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Tencent (700 HK) Vs. Hang Seng (HSI INDEX): Price-Ratio Hits Trigger Zone

Context: The Tencent (700 HK) vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights: After Tencent’s recent outperformance, going long the HSI and short Tencent targets an 8% return.
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Chipping Away at the Precondition

ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) has made steady progress in satisfying the precondition for its ENN Energy (2688 HK) offer. On 22 August, NDRC approval was obtained.
The appraised offer HK$80.00 value is the key debating point. Based on several methodologies, I estimate a realistic offer value of HK$74.44 (range of HK$67.84 to HK$83.64).
The protest votes for director re-elections at the 23 May AGM are a risk. On balance, the scheme vote should pass as the offer is reasonable and strategically sensible.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Pop Mart, China Telecom, JD Logistics Added to Get to 88 Members

China Telecom (H) (728 HK), JD Logistics (2618 HK) and Pop Mart (9992 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.25bn (US$1.44bn). The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 2 September.
At 88 constituents, we near the 100-index member target. The target is likely to be reached by early-2027 – maybe 2026 given mainland companies listing of H-shares on the HKEX.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Healthcare Index Review Announced; 10 ADDs, 4 DELs, 1 More Member Net

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Healthcare Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 73 constituents.
Team Quiddity had expected 6 ADDs+1 DEL. We got 10 ADDs and 4 DELs. Our 7 names were correct and the other three DELs were our next three choices.
This is a smallish index, so we see US$300+mm to trade but there are a couple of big buys in terms of ADV.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Aug 2025): BIG Beautiful Skew Corrects

HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… unwinds. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.3% H underperformance vs As, 4% wider on the highest AH premia.
Last week’s long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) was up 1 tick on the week in Hs and Hs underperformed the A by 1.5%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HS Internet & IT Index Review; Funding Flows Dominate in $850mm Trade

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Internet and IT Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
There are 3 ADDs and 3 DELs. We predicted 2/3 ADDs and 3/3 DELs correctly.
The funding flows and FAF re-weight flows are bigger than the ADD/DEL flows but there should be ~US$850mm to trade.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSTECH Review Announced; No Name Changes, Big Flows

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Technology Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
Team Quiddity had one low conviction ADD/DEL pair “predicted” but there were no name changes announced.
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is a big FAF upweight, as expected. There are other small changes and big capping/re-capping moves. We see US$3.9bn to trade.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Industrials: JD Logistics , J&T Global Express , Boeing Co, Minebea Mitsumi, Curtiss Wright, Watts Water Technologies A and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 Hang Seng Index Review Announced; 3 ADDs, Now 88 Names
[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSCEI Review Announced; 1 ADD, 1 DEL, Minor Flows
Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!
MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead
Curtiss-Wright Is Tapping Into The Billion-Dollar Nuclear Energy Boom: Is This A Potential Game-Changer?
Watts Water Technologies: Nexa Intelligent Water Management Expansion to Position Itself As A Leader In Smart Water Management Solutions!

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 Hang Seng Index Review Announced; 3 ADDs, Now 88 Names

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng Index for the September 2025 rebalance. That takes us to 88 constituents.
There were three ADDs – Pop Mart (9992 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) were expected. China Telecom (H) (728 HK) was in our LOW conviction ranks but added.
It’s not big at US$1.3bn to trade, but we have until 2 Sep to see capping or funding changes and the event will be effective 5 September at the close.

[Quiddity Index] Sep25 HSCEI Review Announced; 1 ADD, 1 DEL, Minor Flows

On Friday 22 August, the Hang Seng Index team announced the changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index for the September 2025 rebalance.
Team Quiddity expected 1 ADD (Pop Mart (9992 HK)) and 1 DEL (J&T Global Express (1519 HK)) and those names were announced as the sole ADD/DEL pair.
HSCEI sees some capping and re-capping flows but because it has relatively low tracking AUM, the total flows here are limited to about US$400mm.

Boeing’s $65 Billion China Lifeline: A Rare Win Amid Mounting Headwinds!

After years of turbulence, Boeing is closing in on a potential mega-deal to sell up to 500 aircraft to China.
This development comes at a time when the U.S. aerospace giant continues to wrestle with production inefficiencies, regulatory scrutiny, safety lapses, and supply chain instability.
The proposed transaction—still contingent on easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China—would mark the largest commercial order since President Trump’s 2017 visit and may serve as the centerpiece of a broader trade agreement between the two economic superpowers.

MinebeaMitsumi Inc. (TSE:6479) – Precision Leader in Transition with Growth Catalysts Ahead

By Rahul Jain

MinebeaMitsumi is focused on expanding semiconductor backend capacity with the Cebu Mitsumi facility, ramping aerospace machining in India, and scaling AI/data center cooling bearings through FY27–28.
In Q1 FY26, MinebeaMitsumi posted record revenues of ¥366.9bn (+3.2% YoY), though operating income declined 7.8% YoY to ¥17.4bn due to yen appreciation and rare-earth supply disruptions.
Trading at a reasonable 8.1× EV/EBITDA and 20.9× P/E (TTM), the stock offers a mid-range multiple relative to peers like Nidec and NSK, reflecting a stable but cyclical industrial franchise.

Curtiss-Wright Is Tapping Into The Billion-Dollar Nuclear Energy Boom: Is This A Potential Game-Changer?

Curtiss-Wright Corporation presented its financial performance for the second quarter of 2025, indicating robust growth and a favorable outlook.
The company’s sales increased by 12% year-over-year, reaching $877 million, with an organic growth rate of 9%.
A significant portion of this sales growth originated from the Naval and Power segment and Defense Electronics, contributing to a 20% rise in operating income and a 130 basis point expansion in operating margins.

Watts Water Technologies: Nexa Intelligent Water Management Expansion to Position Itself As A Leader In Smart Water Management Solutions!