Category

Daily Briefs

Jun 12
0

Daily Brief ECM: Horizon Robotics Placement – Momentum Is Strong but Raising Seems Opportunistic and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics Placement – Momentum Is Strong but Raising Seems Opportunistic
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – Strong Cornerstone, Weak Momentum
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) IPO: The Valuation Perspective
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Valuation Insights
  • Saint Bella IPO: Revenue Growth Re-Accelerated, 34 Postpartum Centers Were Opened In 2024
  • Voyager Technologies Inc. (VOYG): Space & Defense IPO Rockets Higher; More than a Double at Open
  • Bharat Coking Coal Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company – Thoughts on the IPO Pricing
  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Insurance Sector Stays Hot, Pops 6 Points at Open

Horizon Robotics Placement – Momentum Is Strong but Raising Seems Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. It’s back again to raise another US$600m via a placement.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – Strong Cornerstone, Weak Momentum

By Sumeet Singh

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its H-share listing.
  • FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
  • We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) IPO: The Valuation Perspective

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Fundamentals first, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK)‘s IPO is interesting given a positive growth outlook – 1Q25 growth accelerated to 14.8% with margin expansion. 
  • We value the H-share at HK$39.35, 8.4% higher than the high-end of the IPO price based on 28.2x FY25F PER to reflect its significantly stronger 3-year earnings growth.  
  • It equals 5.9x pre-money FY25F P/B, justified by ROE of 21.8-22%, sharply ahead of peers. Net cash equals 12.4% of its A-share market cap. 

Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Saint Bella IPO: Revenue Growth Re-Accelerated, 34 Postpartum Centers Were Opened In 2024

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Saint Bella, a premium postpartum care and recovery provider, moves toward Hong Kong IPO following strong +43% y/y revenue growth in 2024.
  • The company is uniquely positioned in premium segment under Saint Bella, Bella Isla and Baby Bella brands.
  • I believe Saint Bella has the potential to become one of the key postpartum care and recovery providers targeting HNW, high income and young middle class families in China

Voyager Technologies Inc. (VOYG): Space & Defense IPO Rockets Higher; More than a Double at Open

By IPO Boutique

  • Voyager Technologies priced 12.3mm shares (upsized from 11.0mm) at $31.00 ($2 Above the Range) and opened at $69.75 for a gain of 125.0% at first trade.
  • The offering finished north of 20-times oversubscribed (on the new size) with the top 10 accounts taking 60% of the deal and the top 20 getting 80% of the transaction.
  • The volume of VOYG was nearly 2x the float making this stock one that could potentially find buyers in days to come.

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are IDBI, ICICI.
  • BCCL is a subsidiary of Coal India Limited engaged primarily in the mining of coking coal. It produces various grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal.
  • According to the CRISIL Report, BCCL was the largest producer of coking coal in India in FY25, contributing 58.50% to the country’s total domestic coking coal production.

Pre-IPO Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company – Thoughts on the IPO Pricing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The essence of Haitian’s business is “hard-earned money”.Although performance rebounded in 2024, more observations on net profit are needed.It’s time to take a look at Haitian from a different angle.
  • The past high valuation of Haitian is due to the market’s high expectations for it, or rather, the market’s optimism about its performance growth. However, Haitian’s moat is not deep.
  • A comfortable valuation range is 20-30x P/E. Based on the IPO pricing and 2025 forecast, P/E is about 27.5-28.5x. So, we think the IPO pricing range of Haitian is reasonable.

Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Insurance Sector Stays Hot, Pops 6 Points at Open

By IPO Boutique

  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC) priced a full-size deal of 6.67mm shares at $17.00 ($1 above the range) and opened at $23.65 for a gain of 39.1% at first trade.
  • The underwriters felt good about this IPO enough that they elected to accelerate the timing of this deal by a single day.
  • This insurance company was a pure-play E&S with higher regards given to this niche area by sector-dedicated investors.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Australia: S&P/ASX 200 and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/ASX 200:  All-Time Highs, Complacent Vols and a Tactical Hedge with a Relative Value Edge

S&P/ASX 200:  All-Time Highs, Complacent Vols and a Tactical Hedge with a Relative Value Edge

By John Ley

  • S&P/ASX 200 posts a rare rally, joining an elite list of historical moves.
  • Implied volatility has collapsed to multi-year lows despite the surge in price.
  • We discuss a defined, cost-efficient structure that allows positioning with asymmetry and edge.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Saint Bella, Bone Biologics , SanBio Co Ltd, Telomir Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Saint Bella IPO: Revenue Growth Re-Accelerated, 34 Postpartum Centers Were Opened In 2024
  • BBLG: Now is the Time to Look at BBLG
  • SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Akuugo Shipments Expected To Commence In 2QFY26, New Credit Line In Place
  • TELO: Data Shows Potential Treatment for Age-Related Diseases

Saint Bella IPO: Revenue Growth Re-Accelerated, 34 Postpartum Centers Were Opened In 2024

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Saint Bella, a premium postpartum care and recovery provider, moves toward Hong Kong IPO following strong +43% y/y revenue growth in 2024.
  • The company is uniquely positioned in premium segment under Saint Bella, Bella Isla and Baby Bella brands.
  • I believe Saint Bella has the potential to become one of the key postpartum care and recovery providers targeting HNW, high income and young middle class families in China

BBLG: Now is the Time to Look at BBLG

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Bone Biologics is pursuing a better and more effective way of dealing with back pain requiring surgery by developing bone regeneration in spinal fusion using the recombinant human protein known as NELL-1/DBX, or NB1.
  • The company continues with human trials, and we are looking forward to the initial results and suggest investors consider investing ahead of the result release.

SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Akuugo Shipments Expected To Commence In 2QFY26, New Credit Line In Place

By Tina Banerjee

  • SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP) successfully completed three commercial production runs to accumulate inventories in preparation for launch. The earliest possible timing for shipment is expected to be 2QFY26.
  • During FY25, SanBio did not generate any revenue. The successful launch and shipments are likely to have only a minimal impact on the financial performance of the company in FY26.
  • SanBio has a cash runway through FY26. Further, in, company entered into a new committed credit line agreement (¥1B) with Mizuho Bank.

TELO: Data Shows Potential Treatment for Age-Related Diseases

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Telomir Pharmaceuticals is a preclinical stage company focused on reversing biological aging and degenerative diseases.
  • The company announced preclinical test results that showed Telomir-1 reversed multiple symptoms in an animal model of Wilson’s disease.
  • These results provide further proof of the potential of Telomir-1 to reduce aging-related diseases.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Financials: KE Holdings , Hang Lung Properties, S&P/ASX 200, Ategrity Specialty Holdings, Longfor Properties, Seazen (Formerly Future Land) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact
  • Turning Bearish: Hang Lung Properties Going Through a Perfect Storm
  • S&P/ASX 200:  All-Time Highs, Complacent Vols and a Tactical Hedge with a Relative Value Edge
  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Insurance Sector Stays Hot, Pops 6 Points at Open
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Seazen Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
  • A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
  • There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.

Turning Bearish: Hang Lung Properties Going Through a Perfect Storm

By Jacob Cheng

  • We are turning bearish on Hang Lung Properties.   Given China’s economic slowdown, we think luxury spending in China will take longer than expected
  • In addition, the property slowdown and housing prices decline will lead to a negative wealth effect, which will further impact luxury consumption
  • If RMB is to strengthen, more Chinese will travel to spend overseas.  HLP P/B valuation is almost historical low, but can stay cheap as a “value trap”

S&P/ASX 200:  All-Time Highs, Complacent Vols and a Tactical Hedge with a Relative Value Edge

By John Ley

  • S&P/ASX 200 posts a rare rally, joining an elite list of historical moves.
  • Implied volatility has collapsed to multi-year lows despite the surge in price.
  • We discuss a defined, cost-efficient structure that allows positioning with asymmetry and edge.

Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC): Insurance Sector Stays Hot, Pops 6 Points at Open

By IPO Boutique

  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC (ASIC) priced a full-size deal of 6.67mm shares at $17.00 ($1 above the range) and opened at $23.65 for a gain of 39.1% at first trade.
  • The underwriters felt good about this IPO enough that they elected to accelerate the timing of this deal by a single day.
  • This insurance company was a pure-play E&S with higher regards given to this niche area by sector-dedicated investors.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 4.02%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.47%.
  • Equities climbed for the third straight day, supported by optimism over US-China trade talks.

Seazen Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Seazen Group (formerly known as Future Land) is among the most established property developers in China’s Yangtze River Delta region, targeting first-time home buyers and upgraders.
  • The company has broad exposure in many Chinese cities, particularly lower-tier ones.
  • In addition, it has a portfolio of more than 150 investment properties, including the Wuyue-branded shopping malls.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value
  • MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In
  • Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share
  • Qualcomm’s Offer for Alphawave IP Group Plc

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

By Arun George

  • Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. 
  • The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities’ interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
  • Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In

By David Blennerhassett

  • Three months ago, local media reported that Chinese lifestyle retailer MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) was considering spinning off its collectible toy unit TOP TOY on the Hong Kong exchange. 
  • Reportedly, MINISO could raise ~US$300mn from an IPO. MINISO has now confirmed that a spin-off is being contemplated; although a proposal is only at a preliminary stage. 
  • TOP TOY has been a growth engine. But its contribution to the group is still ~6%. Applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appears limited.

Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back June last year, Yeom Tae-soon and family sought to take apparel manufacturer Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) private at ₩2,300, but fell short of the 95% delisting threshold.
  • The family have returned to the well with a more respectable ₩4,100/share Offer, a 35.8% premium to undisturbed, and optically, a fair price. The family and related parties hold 83.87%.
  • Should the family fall short of the 95% threshold, again, they may seek delisting through a comprehensive stock exchange.

Qualcomm’s Offer for Alphawave IP Group Plc

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The offer provides a 2.7% gross spread with a 7.7% annualized return, supported by board approval, firm structure, and high market-implied probability of success near 92%.
  • Downside risk is significant if the deal breaks, but the structured offer, regulatory clarity, and low interloper risk support a small-to-moderate position in diversified event-driven portfolios.
  • Further upside depends on unexpected bid competition, ticking fees, or faster-than-expected settlement; otherwise, the return is modest but acceptable in stable arbitrage environments.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hotel Shilla, Shinsung Tongsang, Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025
  • Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share
  • Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
  • We provide a list of top 15 Korean companies that could benefit from potential no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea. 
  • These 15 companies’ share prices are up on average 49.2% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSPI and KOSDAQ that are up 21.2% and 15.9%, respectively YTD.

Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back June last year, Yeom Tae-soon and family sought to take apparel manufacturer Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) private at ₩2,300, but fell short of the 95% delisting threshold.
  • The family have returned to the well with a more respectable ₩4,100/share Offer, a 35.8% premium to undisturbed, and optically, a fair price. The family and related parties hold 83.87%.
  • Should the family fall short of the 95% threshold, again, they may seek delisting through a comprehensive stock exchange.

Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

By Nico Rosti

  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes… we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%….
  • Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
  • Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Industries, MINISO Group Holding , Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, Hotel Shilla, Pop Mart International Group L, Shinsung Tongsang, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company, JD.com , Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value
  • MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – Strong Cornerstone, Weak Momentum
  • No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Change Likely; US$245mn One-Way Flow
  • Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) IPO: The Valuation Perspective
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Valuation Insights
  • JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
  • Isetan Shinjuku Takes 24% of Tokyo Market but Worries for Future

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

By Arun George

  • Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. 
  • The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities’ interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
  • Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In

By David Blennerhassett

  • Three months ago, local media reported that Chinese lifestyle retailer MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) was considering spinning off its collectible toy unit TOP TOY on the Hong Kong exchange. 
  • Reportedly, MINISO could raise ~US$300mn from an IPO. MINISO has now confirmed that a spin-off is being contemplated; although a proposal is only at a preliminary stage. 
  • TOP TOY has been a growth engine. But its contribution to the group is still ~6%. Applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appears limited.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – Strong Cornerstone, Weak Momentum

By Sumeet Singh

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, aims to raise around US$1.2bn in its H-share listing.
  • FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
  • We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
  • We provide a list of top 15 Korean companies that could benefit from potential no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea. 
  • These 15 companies’ share prices are up on average 49.2% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSPI and KOSDAQ that are up 21.2% and 15.9%, respectively YTD.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: One Change Likely; US$245mn One-Way Flow

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.
  • Based on the latest data, we see one ADD and one DEL.

Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS): The Family Reloads At ₩4,100/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back June last year, Yeom Tae-soon and family sought to take apparel manufacturer Shinsung Tongsang (005390 KS) private at ₩2,300, but fell short of the 95% delisting threshold.
  • The family have returned to the well with a more respectable ₩4,100/share Offer, a 35.8% premium to undisturbed, and optically, a fair price. The family and related parties hold 83.87%.
  • Should the family fall short of the 95% threshold, again, they may seek delisting through a comprehensive stock exchange.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring (3288 HK) IPO: The Valuation Perspective

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Fundamentals first, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (3288 HK)‘s IPO is interesting given a positive growth outlook – 1Q25 growth accelerated to 14.8% with margin expansion. 
  • We value the H-share at HK$39.35, 8.4% higher than the high-end of the IPO price based on 28.2x FY25F PER to reflect its significantly stronger 3-year earnings growth.  
  • It equals 5.9x pre-money FY25F P/B, justified by ROE of 21.8-22%, sharply ahead of peers. Net cash equals 12.4% of its A-share market cap. 

Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing (3288 HK): Valuation Insights

By Arun George

JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com (9618 HK), executed over the period from 4 June to 10 June on the HKEX
  • Highlights: A range of noteworthy strategies, including a deep in-the-money, three-months Diagonal Call Spread and an ultra-low-cost, one-week Calendar Put Spread, highlighting diverse approaches to capitalize on market movements.
  • Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

Isetan Shinjuku Takes 24% of Tokyo Market but Worries for Future

By Michael Causton

  • Department stores had a terrific year in FY2024, especially some of the more iconic stores like Isetan Shinjuku and Hankyu Umeda. 
  • Declining custom from tourists is beginning to be a worry but the emphasis on capturing data on core local customers has, and will, pay big dividends for the best stores.
  • The rest of the sector however, will continue to contract but the polarisation will help highlight the luxury positioning of the best stores.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Seazen Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • US treasury yields fell 3-4 bps across the curve yesterday, partly easing their sharp advance last Friday.
  • Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs declined 3 bps each to 4.00% and 4.48%, respectively.
  • Equities eked out a small gain, on the back of continued US-China trade talks.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • US treasury movements were muted yesterday, with the curve flattening marginally ahead of today’s CPI data release.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 4.02%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.47%.
  • Equities climbed for the third straight day, supported by optimism over US-China trade talks.

Seazen Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Seazen Group (formerly known as Future Land) is among the most established property developers in China’s Yangtze River Delta region, targeting first-time home buyers and upgraders.
  • The company has broad exposure in many Chinese cities, particularly lower-tier ones.
  • In addition, it has a portfolio of more than 150 investment properties, including the Wuyue-branded shopping malls.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Macro: US Consumer Pricing Still Ignores Tariffs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US Consumer Pricing Still Ignores Tariffs
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/23] Deflation Concerns and Declining Portside Inventories
  • Cambodian Tire Sector Propels Domestic Rubber Amid Price Rally
  • CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge

US Consumer Pricing Still Ignores Tariffs

By Phil Rush

  • Another downside surprise in headline US inflation reflected the lack of pass-through from tariff increases, with headline and core rates of only 0.1% m-o-m in May.
  • Commodities, less food, energy and car prices stalled as airfares and apparel fell again. But services (ex-shelter) inflation stayed too high to be consistent with the target.
  • Low headline rates raise dovish political pressure and the risk of a cut, but the tight labour market should encourage the Fed to keep rolling potential cuts later.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/23] Deflation Concerns and Declining Portside Inventories

By Umang Agrawal

  • China’s CPI plunged 0.1% YoY in May-25, while producer prices declined by 3.3% driven by softening domestic demand and US tariff tensions. 
  • China’s iron ore imports declined due to seasonal factors and early clearances, while strong steel exports may pressure prices amid front-loaded global supply.
  • Iron ore portside inventories fell further in early June, but weakening demand and slower pick-up volumes may soon reverse the trend and pressure prices.

Cambodian Tire Sector Propels Domestic Rubber Amid Price Rally

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Rubber exports fetch US$148 million despite volume decline  
  • Two big tire factories bring $335 million investment  
  • Local tire demand is reshaping rubber supply priorities  

CX Daily: Chinese Exporters Pivot to Domestic Consumers in Trade War Hedge

By Caixin Global

  • TOP STORIES Tariff / In Depth: Chinese exporters pivot to domestic consumers in trade war hedge
  • The recent 90-day truce in the U.S.-China tariff war has prompted a flurry of activity among Chinese exporters, with traders rushing to ship goods overseas before tensions escalate again.
  • But at the same time a major shift is underway among exporters — many are now trying to sell those same goods at home, as they scramble to hedge their bets against future global instability.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025
  • Isetan Shinjuku Takes 24% of Tokyo Market but Worries for Future
  • TSMC News: Kumamoto Postponed, Maybe Germany Too. Arizona Accelerating. N2 Yield Rates.
  • Tabio: Licensing and Overseas Expansion Should Boost Sock Retailer
  • Turning Bearish: Hang Lung Properties Going Through a Perfect Storm
  • Nippo Ltd. (9913 JP): Research Update
  • Sinfonia (6507) | A Moment to Take Stock
  • VRA: Time For Change (Again); Suspending Rating, PT; Lowering Projections
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.
  • Worry About Fake Fakes Makes RealReal a Bad Bet

No Visa For Group Tour Visitors from China to South Korea Likely Starting 3Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In the next several weeks, the South Korean government is likely to provide details of a no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea.
  • We provide a list of top 15 Korean companies that could benefit from potential no visa policy for group tour visitors from China to South Korea. 
  • These 15 companies’ share prices are up on average 49.2% YTD, sharply outperforming KOSPI and KOSDAQ that are up 21.2% and 15.9%, respectively YTD.

Isetan Shinjuku Takes 24% of Tokyo Market but Worries for Future

By Michael Causton

  • Department stores had a terrific year in FY2024, especially some of the more iconic stores like Isetan Shinjuku and Hankyu Umeda. 
  • Declining custom from tourists is beginning to be a worry but the emphasis on capturing data on core local customers has, and will, pay big dividends for the best stores.
  • The rest of the sector however, will continue to contract but the polarisation will help highlight the luxury positioning of the best stores.

TSMC News: Kumamoto Postponed, Maybe Germany Too. Arizona Accelerating. N2 Yield Rates.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Kumamoto 2nd Fab delayed because of bad traffic? Sure, bad traffic, but legacy Fab utilization is 70%, who needs additional capacity now and in 2026? Legacy demand remains weak. 
  • Arizona construction is accelerating, highlighting the dichotomy that I’ve been mentioning : demand for AI / Data Center is booming, demand for Legacy (specially auto & industrial) remains weak. 
  • 2nm yield reached 90%. True, but that’s the yield of SRAM test cell. This is not a production yield. SRAM is a very small cell used to qualify volume ramp. 

Tabio: Licensing and Overseas Expansion Should Boost Sock Retailer

By Michael Causton

  • Tabio is the biggest retailer of hosiery in Japan but has suffered a decade of stagnant growth. 
  • It now has plans to grow e-commerce, men’s sports lines through licenses such as with FC Barcelona.
  • It will also speed up overseas expansion, especially in China.

Turning Bearish: Hang Lung Properties Going Through a Perfect Storm

By Jacob Cheng

  • We are turning bearish on Hang Lung Properties.   Given China’s economic slowdown, we think luxury spending in China will take longer than expected
  • In addition, the property slowdown and housing prices decline will lead to a negative wealth effect, which will further impact luxury consumption
  • If RMB is to strengthen, more Chinese will travel to spend overseas.  HLP P/B valuation is almost historical low, but can stay cheap as a “value trap”

Nippo Ltd. (9913 JP): Research Update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • Nippo produced record earnings in FY24, with OP of ¥1,970mil (+2.7% YoY) on sales of ¥44,890mil (+7.1% YoY).
  • Thanks primarily to solid growth in order for print circuit boards [PCBs] used in generative AI servers and wafer polishing jigs manufactured in Nippo’s Okinawa factory, sales landed above the firm’s guidance of ¥42,000mil.
  • FY25 is the final year of Nippo’s medium-term plan [MTP] which calls for an OP target of ¥2,000mil.

Sinfonia (6507) | A Moment to Take Stock

By Mark Chadwick

  • Strong fundamentals priced in: Sinfonia’s sharp share price rally reflects robust FY3/25 results, but modest FY3/26 guidance limits near-term upside potential.
  • Conservative outlook despite tailwinds: Management’s cautious projections for semiconductor and defense segments appear understated given ongoing structural growth in both industries.
  • Valuation fair at current levels: Updated DCF suggests shares are reasonably valued; premium to peers justified by dual exposure to secular growth in aerospace and semiconductors.

VRA: Time For Change (Again); Suspending Rating, PT; Lowering Projections

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are suspending our rating and price target for Vera Bradley and lowering our projections after a below expectations 1Q, and the announced departure of CEO Jacqueline Ardrey and Chief Financial Officer Michael Schwindle.
  • Further, the company has already hired Martin Layding (x-Divisional CFO for the Coach brand) as CFO, with Board member Ian Bickley (Coach management) entering into a new role as Vera Bradley Executive Chairman until the CEO transition is completed.
  • Given the shifts, the company suspended any formal financial guidance.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Is the Cost of Advanced Wafers a Concern? We Believe It Isn’t.

By Patrick Liao

  • There is speculation that the cost of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) 1.4nm wafers is more than 30% higher than that of 2nm wafers.  
  • In semiconductor node migration, newly introduced solutions are generally more advanced and therefore more valuable—which naturally means higher costs.
  • Apple (AAPL US)’s iPhone consistently adopts TSMC’s most advanced technology, ensuring its products maintain industry-leading operational efficiency.

Worry About Fake Fakes Makes RealReal a Bad Bet

By J Capital Research

  • Product authentication and legitimacy are paramount for The RealReal (NASDAQ: REAL), which sells used luxury items.
  • But our research indicates that REAL’s authentication lets through many counterfeits, and that has enraged both buyers and sellers, undermining the sense of trust.
  • REAL has applied AI to the authentication problem to speed things up, but we see no evidence of effectiveness.

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