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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (May 2025) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (May 2025)
  • EA: May Be Disinflation’s Return
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 2 June
  • US – Buy On Dip
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (May 2025)

By David Mudd


EA: May Be Disinflation’s Return

By Phil Rush

  • Negative payback in services inflation dragged the headline EA rate down to 1.92% in the May flash. Although only 7bps low on the day, releases last week had cut 0.1pp.
  • Inflation now looks set to spend a few months below the target rather than at or even above it, as had seemed likely until recently. This is not because of re-rooted imports.
  • Euro appreciation and low energy prices have expanded the ECB’s room to cut rates, but we still see June as the final one amid tight labour markets and peers backing away.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high.
  • Firm base oils premium suggests supply remains tight and demand firm, incentivizing refiners to raise output.
  • Gap between Group II light and heavy-grade base oils prices widens more even after restart of growing number of base oils units following scheduled maintenance work.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US domestic Group I SN 500 price rises to premium to Group II N600 price in May 2025 for first time in more than four years.
  • In Middle East, CFR UAE Group I SN 500 price discount to Group II N500 shrinks to narrowest in more than seven months.
  • In Asia, FOB Asia Group I SN 500 price strengthens vs Group II N500 in May 2025 to firmest level in six months.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially in Europe and Asia.
  • Firm price differentials point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to supply more volumes for those markets.
  • Demand would need to hold firm to absorb any such pick-up in supplies.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils demand could get support from stock-building ahead of Atlantic hurricane season.
  • Slow end-user consumption, expectations of improving availability of supply and of steady-to-lower prices could curb extent of any such stock-building.
  • US refiners’ regular exports of surplus shipments to overseas markets could limit volumes available to cover for any unexpected supply disruptions over coming months.

US – Buy On Dip

By Sharmila Whelan

  • We maintain a buy. The sectoral weightings favour industrials, tech hardware, banks, traditional energy, defence and going into the second half of the year consumer discretionary and AI software companies.
  • The US is neither headed for a full-blown recession nor another cost-of living crisis.
  • Neither updated business cycle indicators nor broad money growth trends signal a downturn and a resurgence in inflation.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs VGO since mid-April 2025.
  • Steady price differentials contrast with surge in margins in Q2 2024.
  • Steadier margins so far in Q2 2025 coincide with time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are likely to be tighter than usual.

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Daily Brief Australia: PointsBet Holdings , Pilbara Minerals, Aft Pharmaceuticals, Jindalee Lithium and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June
  • PointsBet (PBH AU): MIXI Bumps To A$1.20. Betr’s DD Continues
  • AFT Pharmaceuticals — Setting the stage for sustained long-term growth
  • Jindalee Lithium Ltd. – Resource of Inherent Strategic Value for US Self-Sufficiency


PointsBet (PBH AU): Mixi Returns with a Revised Offer and a Potential Takeover Offer

By Arun George

  • PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) has disclosed a revised Mixi Inc (2121 JP) offer at A$1.20, a 13.2% premium to the previous A$1.06 offer and a 10.6% premium to last close. 
  • Due to Betr’s 19.9% stake, which can effectively block Mixi’s scheme, Mixi will consider an off-market takeover offer of A$1.20 with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. 
  • Mixi’s revised offer is superior to Betr’s if synergies are not factored in. While the Betr’s all-cash offer is equivalent to Mixi’s, it is subject to scale-back.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.
  • Pilbara Minerals is a potential deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.

PointsBet (PBH AU): MIXI Bumps To A$1.20. Betr’s DD Continues

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 26th Feb, PointsBet (PBH AU), an Australian/Canadian online wagering platform, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with MIXI (2121 JP), at $1.06/share, a 27.7% premium to undisturbed.
  • An approach from BETR Entertainment (BBT AU), PointsBet’s key rival, was initially rebuffed. On the 12th May, both parties subsequently entered into mutual due diligence after Betr finagled terms.
  • MIXI has now bumped terms to A$1.20/share. The Scheme Meeting has been delayed to the 25th June. DD continues to be carried out by PointsBet and Betr.   

AFT Pharmaceuticals — Setting the stage for sustained long-term growth

By Edison Investment Research

AFT Pharmaceuticals reported FY25 revenues of N Z$208m, posting a strong recovery in H2, with dissipating headwinds and traditional H2 seasonality offsetting the softer H1 performance. H225 revenues (N Z$121.3m) grew 40% over H125 and 9% y-o-y, driven by sustained domestic market momentum and international market recovery. The FY25 operating margin of 8.5% (12.4% in FY24) was affected by lower licensing income and investments in marketing, R&D and international expansion, but these investments should deliver upside opportunities in the longer term. The balance sheet remains strong (net debt reduced to N Z$14.5m, 0.7x EBITDA), supporting the announcement of a 1.8c per share dividend (c 17% payout ratio). Management aims to achieve N Z$300m in revenues by end-FY27 and has guided for operating profit of N Z$20–24m in FY26, with increased operating leverage in the medium term. We update our valuation for AFT to N Z$691.4m or N Z$6.59/share, from N Z$697.4m or N Z$6.65/share previously.


Jindalee Lithium Ltd. – Resource of Inherent Strategic Value for US Self-Sufficiency

By Water Tower Research

  • Lithium price recovery is a matter of when, not if. Lithium prices that peaked in 2022 at ~$80/kg on heavy inventory build, driven by supply chain concerns, and subsequently collapsed to $8-10/kg, due to oversupply and the slower uptake of EVs in the US and Europe, could begin to recover, perhaps as early as next year.
  • This takes into account that 40% of the industry is operating at a loss in the current price environment and demand for the metal remains robust, with energy storage markets growing 65% Y/Y and EVs growing 29% Y/Y in 1Q25.
  • China’s role in mining and dominance in processing.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Naturgy Energy Group SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Current Active Quick Pitches: Mergers, Liquidations, Tender Offers, and More


Current Active Quick Pitches: Mergers, Liquidations, Tender Offers, and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Naturgy Energy Group plans to repurchase 9% of shares at €26.5/share, with an odd-lot priority rule.
  • Assura is involved in a potential bidding war with two credible bidders, offering free optionality on further bids.
  • VH Global Energy Infrastructure announced a 3-year asset realization plan, trading at a 35% discount to NAV.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Bluefocus Communication Group Co, Ltd., Makino Milling Machine Co, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen, Action Construction Equipment and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • ChiNext/​​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade
  • Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): MBK’s Preconditional Offer Is Not the Likely Endgame
  • StubWorld: DFI Exits Robinson Retail
  • Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment A/H Listing – Market Leader but Has Been Facing Industry Headwinds
  • Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround


ChiNext/​​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: US$1.3bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX EQUITY) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index at the June rebalance.
  • We correctly forecast 7/8 and 8/8 for the Chinext Index adds/deletes and were 4/5 and 5/5 for the Chinext50 Index adds/deletes.
  • Based on the estimated passive tracking AUM, the round-trip trade across both indices is estimated to be CNY 9.55bn (US$1.33bn).

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): MBK’s Preconditional Offer Is Not the Likely Endgame

By Arun George

  • Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) announced a preconditional tender offer from MBK Partners at JPY11,751, a 4.8% premium to last close and a 6.8% premium to Nidec’s withdrawn JPY11,000 offer.
  • The offer is broadly in line with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The tender offer is expected to commence in early December.
  • Despite the offer resulting from an auction, there remains a medium probability that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) or a spurned white knight bidder (Candidate A) emerges with a higher offer.

StubWorld: DFI Exits Robinson Retail

By David Blennerhassett


Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment A/H Listing – Market Leader but Has Been Facing Industry Headwinds

By Sumeet Singh

  • Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen (300450 CH)  aims to raise around US$400m in its H-share listing.
  • WLIE is a global platform-based intelligent equipment enterprise, offering intelligent equipment and solutions to a wide range of emerging and high-end manufacturing industries.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Action Construction Equipment: Record Performance, Defence Opportunity, Agri Turnaround

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Action Construction Equipment (ACCE IN) achieved record revenue and profits in FY25 and Q4, demonstrating strong execution and margin expansion.  
  • Secured single largest order from Ministry of Defence, boosting future defense contribution and supporting Make in India.
  • Management is cautiously optimistic for FY26 due to temporary factors like BS5 price impact, but confident in medium to long-term growth prospects.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Solar Industries India, Pilbara Minerals, Eurasia Mining PLC, Nmdc Ltd, Alto Ingredients, Jindalee Lithium , Base Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June
  • Eurasia Mining- Initiation of Coverage
  • NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients
  • Jindalee Lithium Ltd. – Resource of Inherent Strategic Value for US Self-Sufficiency
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 69% One-Way Turnover & US$1.9bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
  • If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
  • Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
  • Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.
  • Pilbara Minerals is a potential deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.

Eurasia Mining- Initiation of Coverage

By Optimo Capital

  • Eurasia Mining joined AIM in 1999 as a Russia-focused metals and mining company.
  • Initially in a JV with Anglo Platinum, the company undertook extensive exploration (gold, gold-copper & PGMs) in the Urals and the Kola Peninsula, which led to the West Kytlim and Monchetundra discoveries that Eurasia went on to acquire.
  • The company has successfully advanced battery metals and hydrogen metal mines into production in the Russian Arctic.

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

By Rahul Jain

  • Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
  • Guidance & Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
  • Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US domestic Group I SN 500 price rises to premium to Group II N600 price in May 2025 for first time in more than four years.
  • In Middle East, CFR UAE Group I SN 500 price discount to Group II N500 shrinks to narrowest in more than seven months.
  • In Asia, FOB Asia Group I SN 500 price strengthens vs Group II N500 in May 2025 to firmest level in six months.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).
  • Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was up 1.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.9% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.2% of the index) was down 2.1%.
  • Top 10 Performers: BNET, LNZA, ETL, NVVE, REVV, OPAL, WML, HYLN, LOOP, GWTI

Jindalee Lithium Ltd. – Resource of Inherent Strategic Value for US Self-Sufficiency

By Water Tower Research

  • Lithium price recovery is a matter of when, not if. Lithium prices that peaked in 2022 at ~$80/kg on heavy inventory build, driven by supply chain concerns, and subsequently collapsed to $8-10/kg, due to oversupply and the slower uptake of EVs in the US and Europe, could begin to recover, perhaps as early as next year.
  • This takes into account that 40% of the industry is operating at a loss in the current price environment and demand for the metal remains robust, with energy storage markets growing 65% Y/Y and EVs growing 29% Y/Y in 1Q25.
  • China’s role in mining and dominance in processing.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially in Europe and Asia.
  • Firm price differentials point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to supply more volumes for those markets.
  • Demand would need to hold firm to absorb any such pick-up in supplies.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs VGO since mid-April 2025.
  • Steady price differentials contrast with surge in margins in Q2 2024.
  • Steadier margins so far in Q2 2025 coincide with time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are likely to be tighter than usual.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high.
  • Firm base oils premium suggests supply remains tight and demand firm, incentivizing refiners to raise output.
  • Gap between Group II light and heavy-grade base oils prices widens more even after restart of growing number of base oils units following scheduled maintenance work.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Lepu Medical Technology A, Aft Pharmaceuticals, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc., Evaxion Biotech A/S, Ainos , OSE Immuno, Sareum Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Jun25 Results: 23/26 Changes Correct Despite Methodology Change
  • AFT Pharmaceuticals — Setting the stage for sustained long-term growth
  • D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – Q1 Follow-Up – June 3, 2025
  • EVAX: Grant For Polio Vaccine Announced
  • Ainos, Inc: AI Nose Increasing Accuracy in Elderly Care Monitoring
  • OSE Immunotherapeutics — ASCO 2025 update showcases Tedopi potential
  • OSE Immunotherapeutics — ASCO 2025 update showcases Tedopi potential
  • Sareum Holdings — A decisive step towards Phase II


Quiddity ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Jun25 Results: 23/26 Changes Correct Despite Methodology Change

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2025 index review results for the ChiNext and ChiNext 50 indices were announced yesterday.
  • There will be eight changes for the ChiNext index and five changes for the ChiNext 50 index.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for the the ChiNext and ChiNext 50 index rebal events.

AFT Pharmaceuticals — Setting the stage for sustained long-term growth

By Edison Investment Research

AFT Pharmaceuticals reported FY25 revenues of N Z$208m, posting a strong recovery in H2, with dissipating headwinds and traditional H2 seasonality offsetting the softer H1 performance. H225 revenues (N Z$121.3m) grew 40% over H125 and 9% y-o-y, driven by sustained domestic market momentum and international market recovery. The FY25 operating margin of 8.5% (12.4% in FY24) was affected by lower licensing income and investments in marketing, R&D and international expansion, but these investments should deliver upside opportunities in the longer term. The balance sheet remains strong (net debt reduced to N Z$14.5m, 0.7x EBITDA), supporting the announcement of a 1.8c per share dividend (c 17% payout ratio). Management aims to achieve N Z$300m in revenues by end-FY27 and has guided for operating profit of N Z$20–24m in FY26, with increased operating leverage in the medium term. We update our valuation for AFT to N Z$691.4m or N Z$6.59/share, from N Z$697.4m or N Z$6.65/share previously.


D. Western Therapeutics Institute (DWTI) (4576 JP) – Q1 Follow-Up – June 3, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • SIR believes DWTI has entered an exciting new phase given significant advances in pipeline development achieved over the last year.
  • Key advances included: 1) publishing favorable topline results of in-house H-1337 PIIb US trials (strong prospects as “first choice as a second-line Glaucoma drug”)
  • 2) commenced jointly developed Japan PII clinical trials of regenerative medicine cell therapy DWR-2206 with ActualEyes, and successfully completing all transplants

EVAX: Grant For Polio Vaccine Announced

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • EVAX is a clinical stage company that has proprietary AI models designed to more efficiently and more accurately target much-needed treatments.
  • The company has two streams of possible revenue: from the treatments themselves and from the licensing of AI technology.
  • The company announced it received a grant to develop a new and unique vaccine with the goal of eradicating polio.

Ainos, Inc: AI Nose Increasing Accuracy in Elderly Care Monitoring

By Water Tower Research

  • Surpassed initial accuracy milestone in elderly care. Ainos provided new AI Nose data in the elderly care co- development project, reaching ~85% accuracy in excretion odor detection.
  • The updated accuracy rate is an improvement over the recently met internal milestone of 80%.
  • Accuracy improved with data-driven AI machine learning. AI Nose achieved 85% accuracy based on 254 subject events in Japan and Taiwan, leading to 2,119 sample entries for statistical evaluation. 

OSE Immunotherapeutics — ASCO 2025 update showcases Tedopi potential

By Edison Investment Research

OSE Immunotherapeutics presented multiple updates at the 61st Annual American Society of Clinical Oncology Conference (ASCO 2025) related to Tedopi, its proprietary off-the-shelf neoepitope-based cancer vaccine. Notably, detailed results were published for TEDOPaM, the investigator-sponsored Phase II trial assessing Tedopi in combination with FOLFIRI in patients with pancreatic cancer (positive top-line data first announced in March 2025). In our view, the results were highly encouraging, especially as this is a difficult-to-treat form of cancer where patients face very poor prognoses. Separately, OSE presented an overview of its lead programme, ARTEMIA, a Phase III registrational trial for Tedopi in non-small cell lung cancer, confirming that enrolment is progressing according to plan. Collectively, we believe the ASCO 2025 update highlights Tedopi’s promising potential in addressing multiple tumour types for HLA-A2 positive patients, showcasing the value proposition for the candidate.


OSE Immunotherapeutics — ASCO 2025 update showcases Tedopi potential

By Edison Investment Research

OSE Immunotherapeutics presented multiple updates at the 61st Annual American Society of Clinical Oncology Conference (ASCO 2025) related to Tedopi, its proprietary off-the-shelf neoepitope-based cancer vaccine. Notably, detailed results were published for TEDOPaM, the investigator-sponsored Phase II trial assessing Tedopi in combination with FOLFIRI in patients with pancreatic cancer (positive top-line data first announced in March 2025). In our view, the results were highly encouraging, especially as this is a difficult-to-treat form of cancer where patients face very poor prognoses. Separately, OSE presented an overview of its lead programme, ARTEMIA, a Phase III registrational trial for Tedopi in non-small cell lung cancer (FOLFIRI), confirming that enrolment is progressing according to plan. Collectively, we believe the ASCO 2025 update highlights Tedopi’s promising potential in addressing multiple tumour types for HLA-A2 positive patients, showcasing the value proposition for the candidate.


Sareum Holdings — A decisive step towards Phase II

By Edison Investment Research

Sareum Holdings has reported the initiation of toxicology studies required ahead of the Phase II studies for its lead TYK2/JAK1 asset, SDC-1801. We view this as a key milestone in SDC-1801’s development plan, with results likely to bolster any upcoming discussions with potential licensing partners. The studies will evaluate SDC-1801’s general toxicology and potential drug-drug interactions, with completion expected in Q4 CY25. With a cash runway into 2026, the company is well funded to reach this milestone. This news follows Sareum’s recent decision to test its TYK2/JAK1 programme in central nervous system (CNS) indications, following supportive preclinical data. TYK2/JAK1 mediate the activity of neuroinflammatory cytokines, such as IL-6, IL-12, IL-23, IFN-α/β, and are emerging as potential targets in CNS, a space that has seen a resurgence in activity and investor interest.


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Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory


KOSPI 200 Update: Market Moves After Lee Jae-Myung’s Victory

By Nico Rosti

  • Lee Jae-myung’s is projected to win the Presidential Elections in South Korea. The Democratic Party of Korea candidate said he wants to revive the economy and stabilize the stock market.
  • At the moment of writing (around midnight Singapore time) the KOSPI 200 INDEX‘s reaction is positive, the futures are rising towards the most recent, last week highs (363).
  • This is a quick review of our most recent KOSPI 200’s tactical setups, in light of the political news coming out of the polls.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)


Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara is our top pick in the Indonesian banks, based on our proprietary scorecard; it scores well based on attractive valuations, sound credit quality metrics and potential for improved returns
  • The PB value in Negara is especially apparent relative to Permata; Negara trades at a 50%+ PBV ratio discount to Permata, which we believe is not warranted by the fundamentals
  • We downgrade Mandiri from a buy to a neutral rating; it is no longer, in our view, compelling based on PBV ratio and now looks expensive in PEG ratio terms

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Daily Brief United States: Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Slide Insurance Holdings, Circle Internet Group, Ategrity Specialty Holdings, VEON, Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I, Ainos , Evaxion Biotech A/S, Alto Ingredients and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?
  • Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer
  • Circle IPO Analysis (Second Largest Issuer of Stablecoins Globally)
  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC):  Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO
  • VEON US: Pakistan Towers Sale Frees Capital for Digital Growth in Core Market Ahead of Ukraine IPO
  • Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More
  • Ainos, Inc: AI Nose Increasing Accuracy in Elderly Care Monitoring
  • EVAX: Grant For Polio Vaccine Announced
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients


S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?

By Dimitris Ioannidis


Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer

By IPO Boutique

  • They write several homeowners’, condominium owners’, and commercial residential products in coastal specialty markets in Florida and South Carolina.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025, they had gross premiums written of $245 million and $278 million.
  • The strong performance of peers could provide a potential tailwind for this IPO. 

Circle IPO Analysis (Second Largest Issuer of Stablecoins Globally)

By Douglas Kim

  • Circle raised both the IPO shares to be issued and IPO price range. New IPO price range is $27 to $28 per share (from $24 to $26 per share previously).
  • We have a Positive View of the Circle due to its status as the second largest issuer of stablecoins globally, rapidly increasing user base and sales, and improving profit margins. 
  • Major risk factors of this IPO include CBDCs, centralization, cyberattacks, and potential government crackdown. 

Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC):  Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings will be offering 6.67 million shares at a $14-$16 range equating to a $659m-$753m valuation.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they wrote $116.1 million in gross written premiums, an increase of $34.5 million, or 42.3%.
  • The underwriters have reserved for sale, at the initial public offering price, up to 7% of the shares offered.

VEON US: Pakistan Towers Sale Frees Capital for Digital Growth in Core Market Ahead of Ukraine IPO

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • VEON last week announced it has secured regulatory approvals for its tower asset partnership with Engro Corp in Pakistan, unlocking US$563 million in value. 
  • Cash portion of funds will be paid in tranches and received in Pakistan, with flexibility to upstream capital or reinvest locally.
  • Transaction supports VEON’s ongoing transformation at the Group level and digital growth strategy in Pakistan while offering a roadmap for similar value creation in Ukraine.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Renatus Tactical Acquisition, a SPAC targeting crypto/blockchain, shows 3% return with capped downside at 15%, potential speculative inflows.
  • Wanda Hotel Development’s asset sale exceeds market cap, plans capital return, 20% upside; Lifeway Foods sale to Danone expected.
  • Liquidia’s FDA-approved Yutrepia drug targets significant market share, 100%+ upside; Currency Exchange International’s FX Payments segment shows high growth.

Ainos, Inc: AI Nose Increasing Accuracy in Elderly Care Monitoring

By Water Tower Research

  • Surpassed initial accuracy milestone in elderly care. Ainos provided new AI Nose data in the elderly care co- development project, reaching ~85% accuracy in excretion odor detection.
  • The updated accuracy rate is an improvement over the recently met internal milestone of 80%.
  • Accuracy improved with data-driven AI machine learning. AI Nose achieved 85% accuracy based on 254 subject events in Japan and Taiwan, leading to 2,119 sample entries for statistical evaluation. 

EVAX: Grant For Polio Vaccine Announced

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • EVAX is a clinical stage company that has proprietary AI models designed to more efficiently and more accurately target much-needed treatments.
  • The company has two streams of possible revenue: from the treatments themselves and from the licensing of AI technology.
  • The company announced it received a grant to develop a new and unique vaccine with the goal of eradicating polio.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 June

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high.
  • Firm base oils premium suggests supply remains tight and demand firm, incentivizing refiners to raise output.
  • Gap between Group II light and heavy-grade base oils prices widens more even after restart of growing number of base oils units following scheduled maintenance work.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Alto Ingredients

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).
  • Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was up 1.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.9% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.2% of the index) was down 2.1%.
  • Top 10 Performers: BNET, LNZA, ETL, NVVE, REVV, OPAL, WML, HYLN, LOOP, GWTI

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Daily Brief Financials: New World Development, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc, Slide Insurance Holdings, NSE Nifty Bank Index, Ategrity Specialty Holdings, State Bank Of India, Renatus Tactical Acquisition Corp I, Cofinimmo SA, China Jinmao Holdings, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust
  • S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?
  • Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer
  • This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests
  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC):  Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO
  • State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup
  • Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More
  • Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)


NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust

By David Blennerhassett

  • 0.052x P/B! That’s New World Development (17 HK)‘s current trailing  P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.
  • What’s new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
  • NWD’s 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.

S&P500 June 2025 Review Forecast: Weak but Interactive, Time for Duolingo?

By Dimitris Ioannidis


Slide Holdings Insurance, Inc.(SLDE): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Another Florida Based Insurer

By IPO Boutique

  • They write several homeowners’, condominium owners’, and commercial residential products in coastal specialty markets in Florida and South Carolina.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025, they had gross premiums written of $245 million and $278 million.
  • The strong performance of peers could provide a potential tailwind for this IPO. 

This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
  • Analysis of the NSE Nifty Bank Index over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.
  • This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.

Ategrity Specialty Holdings (ASIC):  Specialty Insurer the Next to Debut, Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Ategrity Specialty Holdings will be offering 6.67 million shares at a $14-$16 range equating to a $659m-$753m valuation.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2025, they wrote $116.1 million in gross written premiums, an increase of $34.5 million, or 42.3%.
  • The underwriters have reserved for sale, at the initial public offering price, up to 7% of the shares offered.

State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
  • Analysis of the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.
  • This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the State Bank Of India’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: SPACs, Asset Sales, Company Sales and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Renatus Tactical Acquisition, a SPAC targeting crypto/blockchain, shows 3% return with capped downside at 15%, potential speculative inflows.
  • Wanda Hotel Development’s asset sale exceeds market cap, plans capital return, 20% upside; Lifeway Foods sale to Danone expected.
  • Liquidia’s FDA-approved Yutrepia drug targets significant market share, 100%+ upside; Currency Exchange International’s FX Payments segment shows high growth.

Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Revised 1.185x exchange ratio unlocks a negotiated, board-backed path to Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, addressing prior valuation pushback and aligning institutional holders.
  • EPS accretive by 15.6% in 2026, driven by €16m in synergies and stronger funding optionality; upside anchored by operational scale, not leverage.
  • Spread of ~1.9% (~5.1% annualized) reflects low interloper risk and deal certainty; attractive risk-reward for directional or hedged exposure near NTA.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • US treasuries fell and yields rose yesterday, amid renewed US-China trade tensions and a large supply of corporate issuances.
  • Yields on the 2Y and 10Y USTs rose 4 bps to 3.94% and 4.44%, respectively.
  • Equities climbed, led by tech stocks, after the White House indicated that US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will “likely” speak this week.

Indonesian Banks; We Stick with Our Key Pick Bank Negara (BBNI IJ)

By Victor Galliano

  • Negara is our top pick in the Indonesian banks, based on our proprietary scorecard; it scores well based on attractive valuations, sound credit quality metrics and potential for improved returns
  • The PB value in Negara is especially apparent relative to Permata; Negara trades at a 50%+ PBV ratio discount to Permata, which we believe is not warranted by the fundamentals
  • We downgrade Mandiri from a buy to a neutral rating; it is no longer, in our view, compelling based on PBV ratio and now looks expensive in PEG ratio terms

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  • ✓ Company Data and News
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