Daily Briefs

CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a 6.9% premium to Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) – if that is due to expectations of Fast Entry, that premium could drop.
CATL (3750 HK) has not announced the overallotment option as exercised and that puts Fast Entry at risk. An announcement prior to the close tomorrow could lead to Fast Entry.
The earliest inclusion could be at the close on 30 May while the other global index inclusion looks likely in December.

GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE

GMO Internet (4784 JP) was created by the reverse takeover of a listed cad/media company by its parent company’s “internet infrastructure” business. GMO Internet Group ended up with ~98%.
In the process, the stock rose 500%. Now, as part of its promise to the TSE allowing TSE Prime membership for the extraordinarily low-float target, the parent is offering shares.
The squeeze has it at 180x Dec25e EPS, 111x EBIT, 70x book. The offering likely gets pulled and the stock isn’t shortable… so what next? Pain, and an ECLWO.

CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

The buying in Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) over the last couple of days has dragged Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) higher as the arbs trade the AH spread.
The Fast Entry into a global index could keep CATL (3750 HK) supported over the next few trading days, but reality will take hold pretty soon.
Short CATL (3750 HK) / long CATL (300750 CH) offers great risk/reward, while an outright CATL (3750 HK) short offers higher return albeit at a much higher level of risk.

CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning

By David Blennerhassett

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at $263/share. Here is the prospectus.
Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.
It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL’s H shares the day before shares were listed.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (June 2025): 10 Potential Changes Across Indices

With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&P/ASX20 Index, S&P/ASX50 Index and S&P/ASX200 INDEX and two changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index in June.
Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.
While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in Perseus Mining, Viva Energy and Nick Scali.

CSI Medical Service Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes as Trade Flatlines

The review period ended on 30 April, the changes should be announced on 30 May and will be effective after the close of trading on 13 June.
There could be 5 changes in June where passive trackers will need to trade between 0.7-2x ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 1-4x ADV in the forecast deletes.
A long adds/ short deletes trade has gone nowhere in the last 6-7 months, and the volatility of the trade has reduced even further in the last couple of months.

[Japan Activism/M&A] – Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote

The Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) AGMs to elect directors and approve the share exchange agreement to merge the two.
10% Tsuruha shareholder Orbis objects to the merger ratio AND the later tender whereby Aeon goes to 51%, saying everything is underpriced. ISS/GlassLewis recommend voting against the merger.
I haven’t seen the proxy reports but I’ve done the math. Investors/arbs should look at the possibilities/probabilities and understand what dependencies exist. Shareholders are not helpless, no matter the outcome.

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) priced its H Share at HK$44.05 to raise HK$9,890.1 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
The timing of the H Share listing is fortuitous, as the peers have materially re-rated since the prospectus was released on 15 May.
Hengrui had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May.
Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution Block Deal Sale of 8.5% of Outstanding Shares

After the market close today, it was announced that KKR is selling 3.81 million shares (8.5% of outstanding shares) of HD Hyundai Marine Solution in a block deal sale.
The expected block deal sale price is 145,000 won to 148,000 won per share, which represent 7.96% to 9.83% discount to the closing price of 160,800 won on 22 May.
Once this block deal is completed, KKR’s remaining stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution will be reduced to 11% (4.94 million shares).

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May 22

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 16th): Dena and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 16th): Dena, Rakuten, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (May 16th): Dena, Rakuten, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of May 16th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,876m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, margin trading position as multiples of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Dena, Rakuten, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Toyota Motor, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha.

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May 22

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Soaring Yields Sink Stocks and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Soaring Yields Sink Stocks
Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi’s
HK & China Strategy: Potential Gainers of Rmb Appreciation Against USD
Japan Morning Connection: Markets Creaking Under the Weight of Poor Demand for US Bonds
Special Report: Key Takeaways from Visiting Taiwan – MAY 21, 2025
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on CGBS
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly GenAI Coming for the Professions…
Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

Ohayo Japan | Soaring Yields Sink Stocks

By Mark Chadwick

A weak 20-year Treasury auction spooked markets; Stocks tumbled as the Dow fell 800 points
Orbis Investments increased its stake in Tsuruha Holdings to 10.29%; opposes Tsuruha’s planned business integration with Welcia
Wolfspeed Stock down over 60% as prepares for bankruptcy. Potential impact on wafer supply to Renesas?

Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi’s

By The Circuit

Semiconductor industry expected to grow by 10%
US semiconductor manufacturing expansion faces challenges
Trump and China agree to a 90-day pause on new tariffs, with uncertainty about future outcomes

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

HK & China Strategy: Potential Gainers of Rmb Appreciation Against USD

By Osbert Tang, CFA

YTD, the Rmb has appreciated by 1.3% against the USD, reversing the 2.8% depreciation in 2024. The gainers in FY24 may now turn to losers, and vice versa.
The top 5 gainers in FY24 are Shangri-La Asia (69 HK), Singamas Container (716 HK), China Everbright Env (257 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and China Education Group (839 HK).
The FY24 losers, and potential FY25 gainers, are Air China (753 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), China Eastern Airlines (670 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), and H World (1179 HK).

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Creaking Under the Weight of Poor Demand for US Bonds

By Andrew Jackson

Tech and semis sharply lower as investors go risk off, although Coreweave bucks the trend to jump another 19%.
Infineon buoyed sentiment for power semi’s somewhat after announcing tie up with NVDA for HVDC data center systems.
Expect a rough ride for Home builders and construction related plays such as Sumitomo Forestry and Shin Etsu.

Special Report: Key Takeaways from Visiting Taiwan – MAY 21, 2025

By Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

In early May, we had the opportunity to meet with executives from leading companies in the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.
We found that investment in technology research and development is a common key factor behind their success, allowing them to stay ahead of the curve and achieve superior profitability compared to their peers.
Moreover, having a diversified production base gives these companies the flexibility to withstand severe negative impacts from trade conflicts.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on CGBS

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 5.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 5.3%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 6.8%).
Energy Technology (12.6% of the index) was up 10.4%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 5.4%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.7% of the index) was up 6.9%.
Top 10 Performers: FL, AEVA, SPI, MVST, ACHR, LIS, SMR, TGEN, CLIR, TPIC

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly GenAI Coming for the Professions…

The tariff pause that refreshes? The administration’s decision to pause some tariffs during negotiations helped the broader market and residential furnishings stocks, but not the office furniture or home goods retailers.
The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index declined 1.8% and the Home Goods Retailers Index fell 1.5%, while the residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index rose 1.1%. The large-cap indices were up 2.0%, while the R2K rose 1.0%.
Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee. References to GenAI in the press and social media continue to grow rapidly (1), as shown in Figure 1

Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

Large pharma’s bounce from the mostly ineffective Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) executive order was short-lived, as new CMS draft guidance for Medicare price negotiations threatened certain drug combos.
President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.
Listen to the WTR Biotech Flashcast for our MFN take.

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May 22

Daily Brief ECM: Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount
Chery IPO Preview: More Than A Local Hero, Chery’s Road To IPO Glory
Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play
Karamtara Engineering Ltd Pre-IPO – Robust Revenue Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures
Pre-IPO Ab&B Bio-Tech: Commercialization May Be Lower than Expected, Thereby Dragging Down Valuation

Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount

On 21 May, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that the rights offering price increased to 684,000 won (up 26.9% from 539,000 won previously) due to recent increase in price.
Due to the higher rights offering price, the scale of the capital raise has increased from 2.3 trillion won previously to 2.9 trillion won (US$2.1 billion).
Issue price is determined by applying a 15% discount rate to the one-month weighted arithmetic average price, one-week weighted arithmetic average price, and the closing price on the base date.

Chery IPO Preview: More Than A Local Hero, Chery’s Road To IPO Glory

By Andrei Zakharov

Chery Auto, one of China’s oldest state-owned carmakers and #2 domestic passenger vehicle brand, plans to raise more than $1B in its upcoming IPO in Hong Kong.
The company has been China’s top vehicle exporter for 22 consecutive years since 2003. The automaker was founded in 1997 Mr. Yin Tongyue, Chairman & President of Chery Auto.
Chery Auto is an extremely ambitious company with strong overseas presence. The biggest revenue growth driver will be higher NEV sales in the coming years, in my view.

Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play

By Nicholas Tan

Xiamen Hithium (2190977D CH) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
It is a leading global new energy technology company providing all-round energy storage solutions centred around energy storage batteries and systems.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Karamtara Engineering Ltd Pre-IPO – Robust Revenue Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures

By Rosita Fernandes

Karamtara Engineering Ltd (6589452Z IN) (KEL) is planning to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
KEL is a backward integrated manufacturer of products for renewable energy and transmission lines sectors.
As per F&S report, KEL was a leading manufacturer of solar mounting structures and tracker components in India and the largest in terms of installed capacity in FY24 and 1H25.

Pre-IPO Ab&B Bio-Tech: Commercialization May Be Lower than Expected, Thereby Dragging Down Valuation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The investment logic of vaccine companies is different from that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on blockbuster vaccine varieties.
Commercialization of Ab&B’s vaccines could face uncertainties due to fierce competition/price war/slower R&D progress. Some Class II vaccines could be converted to Class I vaccines. Breakthrough point lies in internationalization.
After Series B financing, post-money valuation reached RMB4.2 billion. Since CanSino’s pipelines are either global innovative, or potential best-in-class or first-in-class in China, Ab&B’s valuation should be lower than CanSino.

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May 22

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad
CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Case of Buyer’s Remorse
[Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…
Intel Summary on Samsung Biologics Split and Samsung C&T’s Acquisition of Samsung Electronics Shares
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo
ESR Group (1821 HK): Done Deal as Scheme Vote on 13 June
Key Microstructure Angles to Watch as NXT Volume Caps Kick In
ESR (1821 HK): 13th June Vote On Starwood/Warburg’s Offer
Fintech Alpha: Unlocking Hidden Value as Corpay Circles

[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad

Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).
Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank.
I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal – it’s weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank

CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

The buying in Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) over the last couple of days has dragged Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) higher as the arbs trade the AH spread.
The Fast Entry into a global index could keep CATL (3750 HK) supported over the next few trading days, but reality will take hold pretty soon.
Short CATL (3750 HK) / long CATL (300750 CH) offers great risk/reward, while an outright CATL (3750 HK) short offers higher return albeit at a much higher level of risk.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Case of Buyer’s Remorse

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette asserts that a material adverse change has occurred due to its trading performance, litigation and FDA untitled letter.
Cosette has not quantified the impact, and Mayne disputes the assertion. Mayne’s trading performance is likely the largest contributor to Cosette’s MAC-related claims.
Precedent schemes suggest a lower offer is the best-case scenario. An unwilling bidder looking for angles, contractually, to exit suggests the likely outcome is a scheme termination.

[Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) approached Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) for a takeover at ¥4300. Shibaura dismissed them and asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) to overbid. They did at ¥4500.
Then Yageo overbid Minebea at ¥5400, who then overbid Yageo at ¥5500, who then re-overbid at ¥6200. Despite not having its FEFTA Approval in place, YAGEO overbid and launched.
The Minebea CEO objected. We don’t know status. Now the Shibaura Special Committee has paused, supporting but not recommending the Minebea bid and Neutral on Yageo. We are in limbo.

Intel Summary on Samsung Biologics Split and Samsung C&T’s Acquisition of Samsung Electronics Shares

Samsung Biologics is spinning off Samsung Bio Holdings, transferring full Samsung Bioepis shares; shareholders keep stakes in both, with an expected 70:30 split favoring Biologics.
Post-Split, major shareholders keep stakes; they’ll transfer Biologics shares to Bio Holdings, which becomes parent owning 74.34% Biologics and 100% Bioepis, meeting holding company rules.
Samsung C&T’s restructuring carves out Biologics into a holdco, lowering valuation to avoid forced holding company conversion and enabling future Samsung Electronics share acquisition.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo

The Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) Board supports Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) JPY5,500 offer, but has shifted its recommendation from tendering to a neutral stance.
The Board maintains that it is not yet in a position to provide an opinion on Yageo’s JPY6,200 offer due to concerns on feasibility and synergies.
Minebea hopes Yageo will withdraw due to its failure to secure regulatory approvals. If Yageo secures the required approvals, Minebea will actively consider measures.

ESR Group (1821 HK): Done Deal as Scheme Vote on 13 June

ESR Group (1821 HK)’s IFA opines that the consortium’s HK$13.00 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 13 June.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders rejection). The offer price is final.
This is a done deal due to the substantial irrevocables. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.3%/9.12%.

Key Microstructure Angles to Watch as NXT Volume Caps Kick In

With the September review looming, base case is NXT holds steady for now, then starts cutting volume around mid-July — a move that could trigger dislocations in NXT-heavy names.
In theory, SOR shifts retail flow from NXT to KRX seamlessly—but if retail floods in fast, KRX’s institution-heavy book might struggle, causing depth issues or delayed fills.
The attached Excel shows NXT volume share by ticker — a useful read on names heavily reliant on NXT ahead of July caps, where pressure points may start to emerge.

ESR (1821 HK): 13th June Vote On Starwood/Warburg’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

On the 4th December 2024, the Starwood/Warburg Pincus Consortium announced a firm pre-conditional Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) at HK$13/share (best & final), by way of a Scheme.
There was a raft of pre-cons, however processing went like clockwork, and all were satisfied by the 15th May.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 13th June, and payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Anglo Chinese) says “fair & reasonable“.

Fintech Alpha: Unlocking Hidden Value as Corpay Circles

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

PUSU deadline looms on May 30, giving Corpay limited time to submit a firm bid or walk away—raising the stakes for investors monitoring deal certainty and potential upside.
Alpha’s valuation remains compelling, with a blended takeover value of ~3,795p vs. a current share price of 3,050p, implying ~24% upside on deal completion.
Synergies estimated at ~99p per share could lift deal terms; I see a 65% probability of a formal bid, recommending accumulation around 3,000p for event-driven investors.

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May 22

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Samsung C&T: Entrance into the Global Aerospace Industry [Watch What They Do and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Samsung C&T: Entrance into the Global Aerospace Industry [Watch What They Do, Not What They Say]
Metaplanet (3350) | Japan’s Bitcoin Rocket
Tencent/Netease: None Gets Approvals for Domestic Games
Canara Bank (CBK IN) Vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN): A Relative Value Opportunity
IndusInd Bank Crisis: More Discrepancies, Losses, Suspected Fraud
[Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$134) Rating Change]: Three Has Been a Charm…DG to SELL
[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season
Godawari Power: Expansion Led Growth Ahead Despite Near-Term Delays
ABDL Q4 Update: A Transformational Year with Record Performance and Premiumization Drive
Update on Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)

Samsung C&T: Entrance into the Global Aerospace Industry [Watch What They Do, Not What They Say]

On 20 May, Samsung C&T (028260 KS) made an important announcement that it started research and development on a space project that includes a rocket launch facility construction.
This is a signal that the Samsung Group may be interested in expanding in the global defense/aerospace industry once again.
The recent news flow on Samsung’s expansion into aerospace business including Samsung C&T’s development of rocket launch facility is likely to positively impact Samsung C&T’s share price.

Metaplanet (3350) | Japan’s Bitcoin Rocket

By Mark Chadwick

Metaplanet’s secret weapon? Moving-strike warrants that raise equity into strength—fueling BTC buys while sidestepping the deep discounts typical of Japan’s small-cap raises.
Forget buybacks. Metaplanet is redefining shareholder value by issuing stock, not retiring it—turning dilution into accretion via Bitcoin per-share growth.
A 4.6x mNAV premium gives Metaplanet unmatched BTC buying power—creating a capital flywheel that most traditional treasuries can only envy.

Tencent/Netease: None Gets Approvals for Domestic Games

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China’s game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
Of the companies that we are monitoring, none of them got approval for domestic games but a handful approvals of imported games save their day.

Canara Bank (CBK IN) Vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN): A Relative Value Opportunity

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Canara Bank (CBK IN) vs. Punjab National Bank (PNB IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
The relative value opportunity has a target return of approximately 6% and can be implemented through stocks, derivatives, or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
Trade setup, statistical properties, factor exposure, risk management strategies, and key events are discussed.

IndusInd Bank Crisis: More Discrepancies, Losses, Suspected Fraud

By Nimish Maheshwari

Indusind Bank (IIB IN) faces significant accounting discrepancies, leadership resignations, and suspicions of fraud, with the bank announcing a net loss of Rs 2,329Crs in Q4 FY25 due to this.
The escalating situation, involving fraud suspicions and leadership resignations, raises concerns about the bank’s internal controls, financial reporting, and governance.
IndusInd Bank’s path forward hinges on transparent investigations, fixing internal control systems, and restoring leadership accountability. Investors should closely monitor the regulatory response and management’s corrective actions.

[Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$134) Rating Change]: Three Has Been a Charm…DG to SELL

SEA reported C1Q25 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (3.7%), 10% and 8.4% vs. our estimates and 1.4%, (16%) and 31% vs. consensus.
SEA has weathered the return of TikTok Shop better than rivals three quarters in a roll, but we see its e-commerce business vulnerable to future attacks.
We raised TP from US$75 to US$134 but DG to a SELL on rich valuation

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season

Tencent reported C1Q25 rev., IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net inc, in-line, (3.1%), (5.6%) vs. our est. and 3.8%, (2.3%), (4.9%) vs. cons.
As predicted, Tencent maintained a transitional game quarter well, going forward new game launches shall fill the pipeline while recovering consumption helping on advertising and fintech.
We raised our TP to HK$584 for better outlook and place Tencent back to the TOP BUY list. Our TP implies 21x PE.

Godawari Power: Expansion Led Growth Ahead Despite Near-Term Delays

By Rahul Jain

Iron ore mining capacity expansion from 2.35 MTPA to 6 MTPA and pellet capacity from 2.7 MTPA to 4.7 MTPA expected by 3QFY26 with full ramp-up by Q4 FY26.
4QFY25 consolidated revenues of ₹1,468 crore, with EBITDA at ₹318 crore and PAT at ₹221 crore, reflecting a slight decline year-on-year due to lower realizations.
Valuations appear reasonable driven by steady earnings growth backed by capacity addition, mine expansion and operational efficiencies.

ABDL Q4 Update: A Transformational Year with Record Performance and Premiumization Drive

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN)‘s FY25 marked a pivotal shift with record profitability, fueled by premiumization, cost efficiency, and expansion into international markets, notably through its luxury portfolio.
Record profitability and a strengthened balance sheet position ABDL for aggressive expansion in the high-margin super-premium and luxury segments, supported by strategic CapEx.
ABD’s transformation into a premium-focused brand with significant global expansion potential, particularly in luxury segments, positions it for sustained growth and higher margins.

Update on Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)

By Avien Pillay

Strong results reflect progress of existing approved drugs including key oncology drugs.
Mazdutide is set to be released in 2025, and the company is currently making plans for the release.
Innovent Biologics continues to add to its drug development portfolio.

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May 22

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

US treasuries ended mixed yesterday, with the curve steepening materially amid concerns over the US budget deficit and President Donald Trump’s impending tax-cut bill.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.97%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 4 bps to 4.49%.
US equities retreated after a six-day rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.4% to 5,940 and 19,143, respectively.

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May 22

Daily Brief Macro: UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures
Biden Era Tire Emission Rule In Bin; USTMA Welcomes It
Korea Value Up Index Rebalance Announcement Next Week
CX Daily: Why CATL Is So Revved Up About Battery Swapping Stations
Indonesia: 25bp Rate Cut To 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in May-25

UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures

By Phil Rush

Our above-consensus forecast was exceeded by UK inflation flying higher in April amid administered price rises and postponed price increases due to the late Easter in 2025.
Airfares still soared 10pp more than the norm for a late Easter, and 20pp above the April average. This stoked service and core inflation, although the median was steadier.
We expect inflation to grind up until October, whereas the consensus assumes stability until then. Persistently excessive inflation should discourage the BoE from cutting again.

Biden Era Tire Emission Rule In Bin; USTMA Welcomes It

By Vinod Nedumudy

EPA regulation targeted previously unregulated emissions
USTMA calls it regulatory overreach that shoots up costs
Move can bolster domestic manufacturing, competitiveness

Korea Value Up Index Rebalance Announcement Next Week

Korea Exchange plans to announce the first rebalance of the “Korea Value Up Index” next week on 27 May. The actual rebalance is expected to take place on 13 June.
Korea Exchange plans to reduce the constituents to 100 (from 105 currently) and change 30% of the included stocks in this index to better reflect the Value Up program incentives.
In this insight, we provide a list of 20 potential exclusion candidates and 20 inclusion candidates in the Value Up index rebalance.

CX Daily: Why CATL Is So Revved Up About Battery Swapping Stations

By Caixin Global

CATL /In Depth: Why CATL is so revved up about battery swapping stations

Drug prices /: How Trump’s proposed price cuts could hurt China’s innovative drugmakers

Law /: China to overhaul Prison Law in push for greater transparency

Indonesia: 25bp Rate Cut To 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in May-25

By Heteronomics AI

Bank Indonesia cut the BI-Rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, matching consensus forecasts and resuming monetary easing after a three-meeting pause, citing controlled inflation and rupiah stability.
The decision was driven by subdued inflation, a stabilised currency, and weaker-than-expected GDP growth, with BI revising its 2025 growth forecast slightly downward and emphasising the need to support domestic demand.
Future interest rate policy will remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if inflation and currency stability persist. Still, BI is expected to proceed cautiously given ongoing global uncertainties and the need to safeguard external resilience.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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May 22

Daily Brief Industrials: Samsung C&T, Hanwha Aerospace, Doosan Enerbility, Xiamen Hithium, Karamtara Engineering Ltd, Carr’s Group PLC, Ocean Wilsons Holdings, NOW Inc, Ichiken Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Intel Summary on Samsung Biologics Split and Samsung C&T’s Acquisition of Samsung Electronics Shares
Samsung C&T: Entrance into the Global Aerospace Industry [Watch What They Do, Not What They Say]
Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount
Key Microstructure Angles to Watch as NXT Volume Caps Kick In
Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play
Karamtara Engineering Ltd Pre-IPO – Robust Revenue Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures
Carr’s Group — Attractive options for cash or remain invested
Ocean Wilsons Holdings — Solid performance in volatile times
DNOW, Inc: Strategy Execution Points to Solid Free Cash Flow Outlook
Ichiken Co Ltd (1847 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Intel Summary on Samsung Biologics Split and Samsung C&T’s Acquisition of Samsung Electronics Shares

Samsung Biologics is spinning off Samsung Bio Holdings, transferring full Samsung Bioepis shares; shareholders keep stakes in both, with an expected 70:30 split favoring Biologics.
Post-Split, major shareholders keep stakes; they’ll transfer Biologics shares to Bio Holdings, which becomes parent owning 74.34% Biologics and 100% Bioepis, meeting holding company rules.
Samsung C&T’s restructuring carves out Biologics into a holdco, lowering valuation to avoid forced holding company conversion and enabling future Samsung Electronics share acquisition.

Samsung C&T: Entrance into the Global Aerospace Industry [Watch What They Do, Not What They Say]

On 20 May, Samsung C&T (028260 KS) made an important announcement that it started research and development on a space project that includes a rocket launch facility construction.
This is a signal that the Samsung Group may be interested in expanding in the global defense/aerospace industry once again.
The recent news flow on Samsung’s expansion into aerospace business including Samsung C&T’s development of rocket launch facility is likely to positively impact Samsung C&T’s share price.

Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount

On 21 May, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that the rights offering price increased to 684,000 won (up 26.9% from 539,000 won previously) due to recent increase in price.
Due to the higher rights offering price, the scale of the capital raise has increased from 2.3 trillion won previously to 2.9 trillion won (US$2.1 billion).
Issue price is determined by applying a 15% discount rate to the one-month weighted arithmetic average price, one-week weighted arithmetic average price, and the closing price on the base date.

Key Microstructure Angles to Watch as NXT Volume Caps Kick In

With the September review looming, base case is NXT holds steady for now, then starts cutting volume around mid-July — a move that could trigger dislocations in NXT-heavy names.
In theory, SOR shifts retail flow from NXT to KRX seamlessly—but if retail floods in fast, KRX’s institution-heavy book might struggle, causing depth issues or delayed fills.
The attached Excel shows NXT volume share by ticker — a useful read on names heavily reliant on NXT ahead of July caps, where pressure points may start to emerge.

Xiamen Hithium Pre-IPO: Potential Data Center Play

By Nicholas Tan

Xiamen Hithium (2190977D CH) is looking to raise at least US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
It is a leading global new energy technology company providing all-round energy storage solutions centred around energy storage batteries and systems.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Karamtara Engineering Ltd Pre-IPO – Robust Revenue Growth Amid Cash Flow Pressures

By Rosita Fernandes

Karamtara Engineering Ltd (6589452Z IN) (KEL) is planning to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
KEL is a backward integrated manufacturer of products for renewable energy and transmission lines sectors.
As per F&S report, KEL was a leading manufacturer of solar mounting structures and tracker components in India and the largest in terms of installed capacity in FY24 and 1H25.

Carr’s Group — Attractive options for cash or remain invested

By Edison Investment Research

Carr’s Group’s tender offer provides shareholders with the option to realise cash from the recent disposal of the Engineering division and/or remain invested in a refocused specialist agricultural group. Cash has its attractions, as does the new agricultural business, which offers margin recovery and growth potential (driven by the continued requirement for farmers to improve yields) under the leadership of a new CEO.

Ocean Wilsons Holdings — Solid performance in volatile times

By Edison Investment Research

Q125 was a volatile period for Ocean Wilsons Holdings, but its investment portfolio demonstrated resilience. Wilson Sons traded well in the period and the disposal of the subsidiary remains on track to be completed ’on or around 4 June’. It will be returning a portion of the sale proceeds to shareholders but the use of the remaining proceeds is still under consideration. Currently, Ocean Wilsons is trading at a c 45% discount to our estimated total asset value of 2,389p per share. Our forecasts remain withdrawn, pending the disposal.

DNOW, Inc: Strategy Execution Points to Solid Free Cash Flow Outlook

DNOW is well-positioned to execute its strategy of strategically investing in the margin accretive areas of its business and returning cash to shareholders through its repurchase authorization.
Two 2024 acquisitions, Whitco Supply and Trojan Rentals, expanded the company’s exposure in the midstream and water management sectors.
In April 2025, DNOW acquired Singapore-based Natron International Pte. Ltd., expanding its electrical supply capabilities under the existing MacLean International brand to serve traditional and renewable energy, infrastructure, and other commercial and industrial end markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

Ichiken Co Ltd (1847 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Ichiken’s FY03/25 revenue was JPY99.0bn, with operating profit at JPY6.9bn, and net income at JPY4.7bn.
Construction business FY03/25 revenue reached JPY98.7bn, with operating profit at JPY8.7bn, orders rose 3.6% YoY.
FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY99.0bn, operating profit JPY5.4bn, net income JPY3.5bn, with a dividend of JPY140/share.

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May 22

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Contemporary Amperex Technology, Shibaura Electronics, Tencent, Sea Ltd, Greenidge Generation Holdings, reAlpha Tech, Soluna Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog
[Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo
Tencent/Netease: None Gets Approvals for Domestic Games
[Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$134) Rating Change]: Three Has Been a Charm…DG to SELL
[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season
Greenidge Generation Holdings, Inc: 1Q25 Earnings Highlight Debt and Revenue Progress
AIRE: 1Q25 Revenue Ramps, With Peak Homebuying Activity Still Ahead
Soluna Holdings, Inc: 1Q25 Earnings Highlight Cash Position and Expectations for Growth

CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

The buying in Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) over the last couple of days has dragged Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) higher as the arbs trade the AH spread.
The Fast Entry into a global index could keep CATL (3750 HK) supported over the next few trading days, but reality will take hold pretty soon.
Short CATL (3750 HK) / long CATL (300750 CH) offers great risk/reward, while an outright CATL (3750 HK) short offers higher return albeit at a much higher level of risk.

[Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…

Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) approached Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) for a takeover at ¥4300. Shibaura dismissed them and asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) to overbid. They did at ¥4500.
Then Yageo overbid Minebea at ¥5400, who then overbid Yageo at ¥5500, who then re-overbid at ¥6200. Despite not having its FEFTA Approval in place, YAGEO overbid and launched.
The Minebea CEO objected. We don’t know status. Now the Shibaura Special Committee has paused, supporting but not recommending the Minebea bid and Neutral on Yageo. We are in limbo.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo

The Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) Board supports Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) JPY5,500 offer, but has shifted its recommendation from tendering to a neutral stance.
The Board maintains that it is not yet in a position to provide an opinion on Yageo’s JPY6,200 offer due to concerns on feasibility and synergies.
Minebea hopes Yageo will withdraw due to its failure to secure regulatory approvals. If Yageo secures the required approvals, Minebea will actively consider measures.

Tencent/Netease: None Gets Approvals for Domestic Games

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China’s game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
Of the companies that we are monitoring, none of them got approval for domestic games but a handful approvals of imported games save their day.

[Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$134) Rating Change]: Three Has Been a Charm…DG to SELL

SEA reported C1Q25 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (3.7%), 10% and 8.4% vs. our estimates and 1.4%, (16%) and 31% vs. consensus.
SEA has weathered the return of TikTok Shop better than rivals three quarters in a roll, but we see its e-commerce business vulnerable to future attacks.
We raised TP from US$75 to US$134 but DG to a SELL on rich valuation

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$584) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: Outperformance in Low Game Season

Tencent reported C1Q25 rev., IFRS op. profit, and IFRS net inc, in-line, (3.1%), (5.6%) vs. our est. and 3.8%, (2.3%), (4.9%) vs. cons.
As predicted, Tencent maintained a transitional game quarter well, going forward new game launches shall fill the pipeline while recovering consumption helping on advertising and fintech.
We raised our TP to HK$584 for better outlook and place Tencent back to the TOP BUY list. Our TP implies 21x PE.

Greenidge Generation Holdings, Inc: 1Q25 Earnings Highlight Debt and Revenue Progress

Greenidge announced a solid 1Q25, with revenue of $19.2 million, roughly flat Y/Y, and debt reduction of $12 million from the original $72 million to $60 million.
The company had $13.3 million in cash and Bitcoin at the end of the quarter.
CEO Jordan Kovler said, “This past quarter, our team’s disciplined execution and prudent financial management have significantly advanced the turnaround of our business and operations.

AIRE: 1Q25 Revenue Ramps, With Peak Homebuying Activity Still Ahead

By Zacks Small Cap Research

GTG Financial was acquired in late February 2025 and so did not make a full quarter impact on AIRE’s consolidated results.
Even so, since closing the acquisition during the quarter, GTG contributed to originating 36 mortgages in 1Q25, representing total loan volume of about $22.4m.
2Q25 – with peak homebuying activity underway – will mark the first quarter with full GTG contribution.

Soluna Holdings, Inc: 1Q25 Earnings Highlight Cash Position and Expectations for Growth