Daily Briefs

Back on the 23 December 2022, Skyworth Group (751 HK) announced (another) partial buyback, at HK$3.80/share, a 20.25% premium to undisturbed. On the 28 March, terms were bumped to $5.00/share.
At the close of the Offer, the Wong Concert Group held 50.35%, and were no longer subject to the creeper rule. The Group now holds 56.04%
Yet another Partial Offer has been announced (HK$3.11/share, a 15.19% premium)), which will lift the Group’s stake to 66.45%. Minimum pro-ration is 37.84%. It is likely to go higher.

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers

By Nico Rosti

A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
As of Tuesday, the stock is currently in the middle of a modest pullback, 1 week down, reached a support area where the probability of a bounce is around 50%.
We are at the start of the month, it may be early to benefit from the passive buying discussed by Brian Freitas, however this pullback could support a buy-the-dips strategy.

Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed

WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$250m via selling around 3.5% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable.
Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.

Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

Shougang Fushan Resources’ (639 HK) FY24 revenues/profits were down 14%/21% YoY due to the decline in coking coal prices, which were 14% YoY to 1666 RMB/ton (on similar volumes).
At 1295 RMB/ton, spot prices are 25% lower than last year’s average, yet the stock is supported by cash, which represents 80% of its market capitalization (10 billion HKD).
The company provided a 100% payout of 30 HKD cents, resulting in a 12% dividend yield; however, at current spot prices, the yield is 7%.

KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

By Ming Lu

Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.
The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.
We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Valuing ENN Natural Gas H-Share

By Osbert Tang, CFA

We calculated that after the privatisation of ENN Energy (2688 HK), the EPS of ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) will be Rmb1.94 for FY25F and Rmb2.11 for FY26F.
By using ENN Energy’s undisturbed PER (with and without a 10% discount) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK)‘s ex-cash PER, ENN-NG H-share is worth 6.8-7.9x for FY25F and 6.3-7.2x for FY26F.
ENN-NG H-share is hence valued at HK$14.11-16.37, implying that ENN Energy’s value under the privatisation proposal is HK$66.02-72.67, which is lower than Somerly’s HK$80 estimate.

Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions

By Arusha Das

Trade war impacts the trade flow
Arbitrage narrows on wintering
Fluctuating inventory level indicates at a whimsical buying pattern

Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu Returns To The Well?

Back on the 27th September 2022, Boyu Group launched a HK$12/share VGO for PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), a 33.04% premium to last close.
Boyu and concert parties held 53.05%, and the Offer was contingent on regulatory approvals and 7.71% of shares out tendering. 4.79% tendered. Boyu also acquired 7.15% in the market.
Two days after announcing very ordinary FY24 results, Jinke shares were suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Presumably Boyu is on the acquisition path again. Another VGO or a privatisation?

China TCM (570.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

TCM finished drugs and TCM decoction pieces businesses could be the second and third growth curve of China TCM when the concentrated TCM granules business is facing VBP headwinds.
2024 would be the performance low point. Due to 2024 low base, we would see positive growth in 2025.Performance recovery is expected in next three years based on our forecast.
Annual profit of RMB1 billion is achievable. If based on 10x P/E, market value is RMB10 billion.We think if valuations fall below RMB10 billion, investors can consider buying on dips.

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Apr 02

Most Read: BYD, T&D Holdings, Jusung Engineering, Korean Air Lines, Skyworth Group Limited, Nick Scali Ltd, Kcc Corp, WuXi XDC Cayman and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)
HEM: Fear of Fear Itself
FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely
Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025
Skyworth Group (751 HK)’s Latest Partial Buyback. Thoughts On Proration
Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers
KCC Corp: Considering on Issuing an Overseas EB for Its 10% Stake in Samsung C&T
Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

BYD (1211 HK) raised US$5.6bn in a secondary offering a few weeks ago and the stock is trading a lot higher than the placement price.
Buying from global index trackers is done, but there will be more passive buying from Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) trackers later this month.
With the release of the God’s Eye advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS), the stock could be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June, bringing more passive inflows.

T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

By Travis Lundy

Yesterday, post-close, T&D Holdings (8795 JP) announced ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.
The company also announced guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year).
They announced the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a new buyback starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself

By Phil Rush

US surveys indicate a fear of tariffs and DOGE, leading to a negative sentiment.
Despite these fears, resilient labour markets suggest that concerns may be exaggerated.
There is an expectation of reversing unnecessary easing in 2026 due to high underlying price and wage inflation.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.
The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.
Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.
Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos.

Skyworth Group (751 HK)’s Latest Partial Buyback. Thoughts On Proration

Back on the 23 December 2022, Skyworth Group (751 HK) announced (another) partial buyback, at HK$3.80/share, a 20.25% premium to undisturbed. On the 28 March, terms were bumped to $5.00/share.
At the close of the Offer, the Wong Concert Group held 50.35%, and were no longer subject to the creeper rule. The Group now holds 56.04%
Yet another Partial Offer has been announced (HK$3.11/share, a 15.19% premium)), which will lift the Group’s stake to 66.45%. Minimum pro-ration is 37.84%. It is likely to go higher.

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

Northern Star Resources (NST AU)‘s acquisition of De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is expected to complete in the next 3 weeks.
There will be an ad hoc inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from a bunch of trackers of different indices.
The acquisition brings Northern Star Resources (NST AU) close to inclusion in the S&P/ASX 20 Index, but it’s not there yet.

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers

By Nico Rosti

A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
As of Tuesday, the stock is currently in the middle of a modest pullback, 1 week down, reached a support area where the probability of a bounce is around 50%.
We are at the start of the month, it may be early to benefit from the passive buying discussed by Brian Freitas, however this pullback could support a buy-the-dips strategy.

KCC Corp: Considering on Issuing an Overseas EB for Its 10% Stake in Samsung C&T

Kcc Corp (002380 KS) is considering on issuing an overseas exchangeable bond (EB) for its 10% stake in Samsung C&T (028260 KS).
KCC is the second largest shareholder of Samsung C&T with a 10% stake in the company which is worth 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion).
Our NAV valuation of KCC Corp suggests NAV per share of 332,947 won, which is 27% higher than current price.

Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed

WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$250m via selling around 3.5% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief ESG: The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush, but to Gain a Foothold and Proceed with Caution

The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush, but to Gain a Foothold and Proceed with Caution

By Aki Matsumoto

It’s unlikely that the transition to ‘company with audit committee’ will enhance the supervisory function, but it’s likely to speed up the decision-making process by delegating authority to executive directors.
Instead of achieving 30% female board member and moving to Company with US-type 3 Committees at once, Toyota will implement Toyota’s way firmly with BOD that is half independent directors.
The only way for Toyota, which faces several governance challenges, to uphold tradition of Toyoda family being at the top of management is to make the returns expected by investors.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Claws Back Losses and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Claws Back Losses
Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Well off the Lows Pointing to Better Start for JP
Singapore Banks – Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD
European Software: Fortnox (FNOX SS) Going Private – Might Makes Right

Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Claws Back Losses

By Mark Chadwick

US stocks ended a turbulent March with a rebound as the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 5,612 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1%, or roughly 400 points
Ricoh acquired an additional 44.4% stake in its U.S. subsidiary, Elixagen Scientific, on March 31, 2025, making it wholly owned
Independent Franchise Partners, a British investment firm, increased its stake in Shiseido to 6.25%, up from 5.2%

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Well off the Lows Pointing to Better Start for JP

By Andrew Jackson

Watch Softbank after bullish comments from ARM that it expects 50% DC GPU market share this year.
Hegseth’s Japan trip concludes with no demand for higher defense spending.
Shiseido was sharply higher yesterday after activist announces larger stake in an easy squeeze.

Singapore Banks – Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

By Daniel Tabbush

Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore’s banks and it is not particularly positive
The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it’s at 67.3%
Singapore’s banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans

European Software: Fortnox (FNOX SS) Going Private – Might Makes Right

By Gregory Ramirez

Fortnox has announced a public tender offer from EQT and First Kraft for SEK90 per share, valuing the company at SEK54.9bn, representing a 38% premium over the last closing price.
The Fortnox deal signals a recovery in Software M&A activity in 2025. It highlights the growing trend of SaaS companies going private, following similar moves by other European SaaS firms.
Despite the premium, some shareholders may be dissatisfied. Similar criticisms have arisen in other recent deals, but the offer might succeed due to Fortnox’s outstanding stock market performance.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief ECM: Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand
QingSong Health Corporation – Pain Points of the Business Model and the Outlook
Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Key Infrastructure Provider

Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand

By IPO Boutique

As of December 31, 2024, their network comprised 6,440 teahouses, including 6,284 located in China.
Their net revenues increased by 844% to RMB4,640.2 million in 2023 from RMB491.7 million in 2022.
We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.

QingSong Health Corporation – Pain Points of the Business Model and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The business model of QingSong is a platform offering comprehensive healthcare services and tailored financial resources. By connecting different stakeholders, QingSong can monetize its user base, creating a virtuous cycle.
Qingsong’s revenue structure has undergone significant changes. However, if Qingsong’s future business focus is on Qingsong Healthcare services, it may be difficult to generate large-scale profits in the end.
Listed insurance intermediary platforms have been in the shadow of a decline in stock prices. So, there is concerns that future share price performance of QingSong may not be optimistic.

Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Key Infrastructure Provider

Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief Credit: Indika Energy – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Indika Energy – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results
Longfor Group – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results

Indika Energy – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results

By Trung Nguyen

Indika Energy’s FY 2024 results were weak as expected in our view, due to significant challenges amid declining coal prices, with no contributions from its investments in non-coal businesses so far.
The balance sheet worsened significantly during the year.
That said, liquidity remained sound.

Longfor Group – Earnings Flash – FY 2024 Results

By Leonard Law, CFA

Longfor Group’s FY 2024 results were acceptable.
The earnings decline was in line with expectations, driven by lower revenues and margins from the property development segment.
We project that Longfor’s contracted sales will continue declining in FY 2025, given the company’s slowdown in land bank replenishment.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief Event-Driven: BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
Hanwha’s Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways
Skyworth (751 HK): Another Buyback
Fat Inheritance Taxes for Hanwha Group Chairman Kim’s Three Sons Post Receiving Hanwha Corp Shares
A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon
Danish or Not, UniCredit’s Consolidation Appetite Is Intact
Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: Company Sales, Strategic Reviews, Buyouts and More
ANGI Spin-off Deep Dive

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

BYD (1211 HK) raised US$5.6bn in a secondary offering a few weeks ago and the stock is trading a lot higher than the placement price.
Buying from global index trackers is done, but there will be more passive buying from Hang Seng Index (HSI) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) trackers later this month.
With the release of the God’s Eye advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS), the stock could be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June, bringing more passive inflows.

Hanwha’s Surprise Gift Disclosure: Three Major Takeaways

By Sanghyun Park

The chances of a Hanwha Corp-Hanwha Energy merger just dropped significantly. With the brothers now owning 43%, the merger’s effectively off.
The three brothers face a KRW 200B gift tax bill and need liquidity. They’ll raise cash via Hanwha Energy’s IPO, with the youngest brother set to sell a 10% stake.
Hanwha Corp will likely fund its Hanwha Aerospace rights issue through a rights offering, using KRW 1.3 trillion from Hanwha Energy, after shutting down merger rumors.

Skyworth (751 HK): Another Buyback

By Arun George

On 27 March, Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK) launched a conditional buyback to acquire a maximum of 350.0m shares (15.67% of outstanding) at HK$3.11, a 15.2% premium to undisturbed price.
Unlike the previous buybacks, the controlling shareholder can vote. Therefore, while the buyback offer is unattractive, the shareholder vote will pass.
Based on the irrevocables, a 100% share minority participation rate implies a minimum proration of 37.84%. The actual proration was around twice the minimum proration for the previous two.

Fat Inheritance Taxes for Hanwha Group Chairman Kim’s Three Sons Post Receiving Hanwha Corp Shares

Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-youn (born in 1952) made a major move to give 11.32% of his shares in Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) to his three sons.
It is estimated that the three sons will need to pay nearly 222 billion won in inheritance taxes associated with receiving additional stakes in Hanwha Corp.
Because the three sons need to pay for the high amounts of inheritance taxes, Hanwha Corp is likely to raise the dividend payout in the next several years.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

By Travis Lundy

AH Premia bounce higher. Spread curve torsion was as expected. Narrow spreads saw Hs suffer more. Wide spreads saw H outperformance.
The last few weeks I said warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. This week they widened despite big SOUTHBOUND buying.
I expect the right thing to do is hunker down and be flat H/A risk.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 28 Mar 2025); Banks and Divs Bought Again

By Travis Lundy

Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. This week was +HK$37bn.
That’s decent net buying still. Keeping that pace would mean a new record. It IS possible this excess flow is state-managed (or state-insisted as insurers up equity investment ratios).
Included is a summary of important China Stocks-relevant news as I saw it this week, but tariffs, retaliation, US growth prospects, etc will all matter more.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2025 Wrap: ENN Energy, Gold Road, Spartan, Aeon Delight, Sinarmas, Topcon

By Special Situation Investments

For the month of March 2025, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~53%, with a year-to-date average also of 55%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .

Danish or Not, UniCredit’s Consolidation Appetite Is Intact

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Despite losing access to favorable capital treatment under the Danish Compromise, Banco BPM is proceeding with its Anima acquisition, leveraging mitigation measures to maintain a CET1 ratio above 13%.
UniCredit’s €14B all-share offer for Banco BPM moves forward despite ECB rejecting the Danish Compromise, with capital strength and shareholder backing keeping the deal on a strong trajectory.
CEO Andrea Orcel’s dealmaking expertise and UniCredit’s 42.9% share price rise since the bid increase confidence in the bank’s ability to complete the acquisition and extract long-term value.

Exploring Active Portfolio Ideas: Company Sales, Strategic Reviews, Buyouts and More

Lifeway Foods anticipates a sale to Danone, with AGM negotiations expected; SpringWorks Therapeutics in buyout talks with Merck KGaA.
Sage Therapeutics rejected Biogen’s offer, initiating strategic review; Kronos Bio undergoes strategic review post-trial discontinuation.
Microstrategy trades at NAV premium; OCI N.V. plans asset sales and dividends; Liquidia prepares for drug commercialization.

ANGI Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

Angi Inc. (“Angi”) is set to be spun off from IAC Inc. (IAC owns 85% of the company) on March 31, 2025 following a multi-year turnaround that restored profitability and improved cash flow.
The first day of regular way trading will be April 1, 2025.
Angi operates the largest digital marketplace for home services in the U.S., connecting homeowners with contractors across Angi’s Ads and Leads platform (formerly HomeAdvisor/Angie’s List) and Services (pre-priced jobs fulfilled via Angi’s network), with an international segment spanning Europe and Canada.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Fast Retailing (9983) | Buying Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Results and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Fast Retailing (9983) | Buying Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Results
Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025
UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom
UiPath: A Tale Of Cloud Transition & SaaS Growth With An Astounding 98% Retention!
MIXI Inc. (2121 JP) – A Potentially Game-Changing Deal
TEGNA’s Bold Bet on AI & Automation To Expand Margins—Here’s What’s Coming Next!
C3.ai’s 460% Surge in Deals Signals a Breakout Moment—Is This the Best AI Stock to Buy Today?
Quick Takeout Idea: Dalata Hotel (DHG.IR) – Probably Gets Sold Soon
MasTec’s Clean Energy Boom: New Client Wins & Rising Margins Could Fuel Solid Growth In 2025!

Fast Retailing (9983) | Buying Opportunity Ahead of Q2 Results

By Mark Chadwick

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is set to report its second-quarter results on April 10, and we see an opportunity to buy ahead of a strong earnings release
We expect Fast Retailing to post Q2 sales of ¥905bn (+15% YoY), above consensus estimates of ¥881bn. EBIT projected at ¥133bn (+21% YoY), ahead of street expectations of ¥125bn.
Domestic Uniqlo monthly sales and quarterly results from global peers suggest strong sales momentum.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.
Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.
Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos.

UMC – Global Foundries Merger? TSMC 2nm and A16 On-Track. More Doubts over US CHIPS Act Subsidies.

By Nicolas Baratte

Reports of merger between UMC and GlobalFoundries. Beyond the threat of US import tariffs for UMC, it would create a larger firm to counter SMIC’s expansion. Easier said than done
TSMC second 2nm Fab in KaoHsiung “inaugurated”, 2nm production unchanged mid of 2025. A16 process and equipment qualification underway for risk production in 2027.
Biden era CHIPS Act subsidies (US$52bn) could be cancelled or the program is completed and the assigned staff leaving?

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Goes ‘Taiwan Speed’ in Arizona; Phison Predicts Edge AI Flash Memory Boom

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC Accelerates U.S. Expansion — New Arizona Fab to Be Built at ‘Taiwan Speed’
Phison CEO Sees Decade-Long Boom for NAND Flash as AI Shifts to the Edge
Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thailand Crash Closes Gap, But Still Relatively Expensive

UiPath: A Tale Of Cloud Transition & SaaS Growth With An Astounding 98% Retention!

UiPath reported its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 financial performance, marking several high and low points that are critical for investors to examine as they consider their future involvement with the company.
On the positive side, UiPath achieved a quarterly revenue of $424 million, with only a slight impact from foreign exchange fluctuations.
For the full fiscal year, revenue increased to $1.43 billion, reflecting a 9% improvement year-over-year.

MIXI Inc. (2121 JP) – A Potentially Game-Changing Deal

By Astris Advisory Japan

MIXI has announced an all-cash deal worth ¥35.2bn for PointsBet Holdings (PBH), an Australian sports and racing online betting company operating in Australia and Canada.
The deal is due to close in mid-June 2025. We view this transaction as aligned with MIXI’s strategies of business diversification and overseas expansion, leveraging the expertise gained from TIPSTAR in Japan’s keirin and auto-race betting businesses to enter the Australian market, thereby accelerating the growth of both TIPSTAR and PointsBet.
MIXI is demonstrating a positive and active allocation of its capital, with a high intent to accelerate the development of its Sports business and make it a key earnings pillar.

TEGNA’s Bold Bet on AI & Automation To Expand Margins—Here’s What’s Coming Next!

TEGNA Inc. recently presented its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating both opportunities and challenges for potential investors.
The company reported a significant 20% year-over-year increase in total revenue for the fourth quarter, amounting to $871 million, primarily driven by political advertising revenues.
However, the political advertising performance nearly matched that of the 2020 election cycle, indicating the cyclical nature of this revenue stream.

C3.ai’s 460% Surge in Deals Signals a Breakout Moment—Is This the Best AI Stock to Buy Today?

C3.ai has exhibited a solid performance in the third fiscal quarter of 2025, ending January 31, 2025, with both positive developments and certain challenges.
The company reported total revenue of $98.8 million, representing a 26% increase year-over-year.
Subscription revenue, constituting the majority of its revenue, grew by 22% to $85.7 million.

Quick Takeout Idea: Dalata Hotel (DHG.IR) – Probably Gets Sold Soon

By Acid Investments

Dalata Hotel recently announced a formal sales process. Last few days have been really busy ;ppp and I’ve been using time on the road to conjure my “tin-foil hat” hypotheses and squeezing out whatever spare time I have to eke out this article.
Before going on, I’d like to highlight that amidst the market chaos, there seems to be a fair few interesting things popping – for e.g. last week, I highlighted DLTR selling off its FD stake and how DLTR deserved a rerating; in other news, Intel has also successfully divested its memory chip business (this time, IP and manpower) over to Sk Hynix, netting a ~1.9b cash infusion and also an indication of focus on its core “less-commoditized” logic chips business.
Tan Lip Bu also finished acquiring his 25m worth of shares at ~$23.96 per share. Yet, INTC has traded down with the rest of its boys, as the semicon indices continually to get smacked downwards. Exciting times ahead.

MasTec’s Clean Energy Boom: New Client Wins & Rising Margins Could Fuel Solid Growth In 2025!

MasTec Inc. has reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
The company’s performance exceeded expectations across several key metrics, including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and earnings per share (EPS).
For the fourth quarter, MasTec achieved a revenue of $3.4 billion with an adjusted EBITDA of $271 million, marking a 20% year-over-year increase.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief Macro: HEM: Fear of Fear Itself and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself
The Month Ahead: Key Events in April
WTI’s Recovery Wavers While Henry Hub Regains Momentum
Rough Waters subsiding
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases
Asian Alpha Hedge Fund (AAHF): INTRODUCTION
Trump-Russia-China: The Bigger Game

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself

By Phil Rush

US surveys indicate a fear of tariffs and DOGE, leading to a negative sentiment.
Despite these fears, resilient labour markets suggest that concerns may be exaggerated.
There is an expectation of reversing unnecessary easing in 2026 due to high underlying price and wage inflation.

The Month Ahead: Key Events in April

By Gaudenz Schneider

Central Bank Rate Decisions in Australia, India, and South Korea.
Tariffs: US reciprocal tariffs effective from 2 April; secondary tariffs are now a factor.
Holidays: Good Friday is an exchange holiday in Hong Kong, Australia, India, and the US. Several other national holidays throughout the region.

WTI’s Recovery Wavers While Henry Hub Regains Momentum

By Suhas Reddy

WTI rebounded in March due to geopolitical risks, but oversupply concerns and Trump’s unpredictable policies may limit further gains as OPEC increases output from April.
Henry Hub rallied in 2025, driven by strong LNG demand, supply constraints, and below-average inventories, positioning it for sustained support despite short-term volatility.
Henry Hub’s technicals indicate a potential bullish reversal, while WTI’s bullish momentum shows signs of weakening, suggesting divergent trends in the near term.

Rough Waters subsiding

By Mark Tinker

We often compare investing to sailing; investors can sit in safe harbour (cash) or they can venture out in most, if not all, weather.
Sometimes it requires a lot of tacking and trimming sails to seemingly achieve very little as the winds and tides fight each other, sometimes it is, as they say, plain sailing and the best thing to do is stick on the same course.
Obviously, and to extend the metaphor, fishing boats need to sail to where the most fish are and sometimes that means going to places where the weather is less predictable.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

By Pranay Yadav

SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.
Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.
Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.

Asian Alpha Hedge Fund (AAHF): INTRODUCTION

By David Mudd

The Asian Alpha Hedge Fund (AAHF) returned 31.66% in the first quarter of 2025. At 3/31/25 the portfolio had a gross position of 172% and a net position of +5.89%.
The fund’s outperformance was attributed to high alpha generation and country allocation/positioning. The portfolio gained from its long positions in Hong Kong and shorts in Japan.
At the end of March, we reduced our long positions in Hong tech names and covered short positions in Japanese steel companies.

Trump-Russia-China: The Bigger Game

By Sharmila Whelan

Investors should be targeting US multinationals that had a presence in Russia pre-war.
Despite recent hiccups and Trump’s ire with Putin, expect a peace deal to be struck, for the US to lead Russia’s re-integrations into the world economy.
Breaking the Russia-China alliance is the bigger game at play here for Trump/.

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Apr 01

Daily Brief Utilities: Maynilad Water Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Key Infrastructure Provider

Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Key Infrastructure Provider