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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy?
  • Ohayo Japan | Tech Rebound Lifts Nasdaq, Eases Inflation Fears
  • Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 3: Emerging Green Energy Hub
  • Japan’s Banks – Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low
  • Japan Morning Connection: Relief Rally for Tech and High-Beta Laggards After Macro Data
  • Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 1: Iron Ore and Mining Giants
  • Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 2: Weather Risk From Cyclones
  • Why these 2 miners led the bloodbath
  • US Stock Market – Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.
  • Episode 108: MWC Observations, MRVL and AVGO Earnings, Apple’s new Devices


How Is the Decline in Oil Prices Reshaping India’s Economy?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Brent crude prices have fallen below $70 per barrel, driven by rising non-OPEC supply, weak global demand, and geopolitical shifts, easing inflationary pressures in oil-importing economies like India.
  • Lower crude prices benefit OMCs, paints, tyres, and aviation, boosting margins, while upstream oil producers and government revenue face pressure, creating a mixed impact on India’s economy.
  • Oil prices may remain range-bound in the mid-$60s to $70s, with OPEC+ production strategies, global demand trends, and geopolitical risks shaping future market movements.

Ohayo Japan | Tech Rebound Lifts Nasdaq, Eases Inflation Fears

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.2% to as tech stocks rebounded, leading the S&P 500 up 0.5%, while the Dow Jones slipped 0.2% to 41,350
  • Mitsubishi Electric aims to raise its defense business operating profit to ¥60bn by fiscal 2031, up 4x from the current fiscal year’s forecast
  • Seven & i Holdings announced the resignation of two non-executive directors

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 3: Emerging Green Energy Hub

By Pranay Yadav

  • Iron Ore Dominance: Pilbara contributes 15% of Western Australia’s economic output, with iron ore exports supported by major operations like Mount Newman and global trade hubs such as Port Hedland.
  • Diversification into Green Energy: The region is expanding into lithium, manganese, and vanadium mining while advancing hydrogen projects like the A$140 million Pilbara Hydrogen Hub to drive renewable energy leadership.
  • Economic and Employment Impact: Pilbara has A$170 billion in active projects, supporting 40,000 construction jobs and 12,000 permanent roles.

Japan’s Banks – Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Japan’s banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey
  • The story for Japan’s banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it’s also about core lending
  • With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta

Japan Morning Connection: Relief Rally for Tech and High-Beta Laggards After Macro Data

By Andrew Jackson

  • New CEO positive for Intel plays such as Ibiden. SPE favourites to rally off lows.
  • Apple and related suppliers failing to catch a bid with analysts bearish over AI delay.
  • Sandisk down but Micron up…still room for NAND plays to run on price hike expectations?

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 1: Iron Ore and Mining Giants

By Pranay Yadav

  • The Pilbara is a globally significant mining region, known for its vast iron ore reserves, economic importance, and evolving role in renewable energy development.
  • BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue drive Pilbara’s mining industry, with BHP and Fortescue increasing output by 2.1% and 5.5% over five years, while Rio Tinto’s production declined by 0.6%.
  • Mining costs have surged, with Rio Tinto’s unit costs rising 10.8% annually, the highest among the three, while Fortescue’s capital expenditure has grown 13% per year, outpacing competitors.

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 2: Weather Risk From Cyclones

By Pranay Yadav

  • Mining Disruptions: Cyclones in Pilbara can disrupt mining and port operations, affecting global iron ore supply and pricing, as seen with Cyclone Veronica (2019) and Cyclone Zelia (2025).
  • Impact on Miners and Iron Ore: Post-cyclone stocks for major miners decline, with Rio Tinto showing increased volatility, iron ore prices tend to rise from weather impact. 
  • Economic Risks: Cyclone-related damage leads to higher operational costs and recovery expenses, impacting company revenues and reinforcing the financial risks of extreme weather in resource-dependent regions.

Why these 2 miners led the bloodbath

By Money of Mine

  • Ramelius and nickel mine stocks are down significantly today
  • Ramelius announces a 17 year plan for Mount Magnet, including a pit cut back at Erinatus
  • The pit cut back will increase pre production costs but extend the life of the pit and avoid sterilizing ore, impacting short term performance

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


US Stock Market – Deposits of USD17,948billion Sit in US Banks. Potential Flow to Markets.

By Daniel Tabbush

  • There are significant deposits at banks in the US, near all time high levels, at USD17.9 trillion in the most recent week’s data
  • With lower interest rates, there is less propensity to save in bank deposits, we are seeing this well with Jumbo Time Deposits
  • Against a volatile stock market it is worth keeping in mind, the incredibly high level of deposits at US banks

Episode 108: MWC Observations, MRVL and AVGO Earnings, Apple’s new Devices

By The Circuit

  • The Mobile World Congress had a record attendance of 110,000 people this year, but some are questioning its relevance in the semiconductor industry
  • Major chip companies had reduced presence at the event, signaling a shift away from semiconductor topics towards other emerging technologies like AI and data centers
  • The telecom industry, which the event primarily caters to, is facing challenges with stagnant growth and operators are hesitant to upgrade to 6G, leading to a downbeat atmosphere for equipment suppliers at the event.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


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Daily Brief ECM: Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals – Future Commercialization Is a Test
  • Softcare Pre-IPO – Strong Market Penetration but Gross Margins May Be Capped
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Trading – KDIC Stake Overhang Remains, Yield Might Help


Knowledge Realty Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN)  looks to raise about US$712m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Kotak, Axis, BoFA, ICICI, IIFL, JMFin, MS, SBI.
  • Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India. KRT covered 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between FY16-9M24, as per CBRE report.
  • The portfolio includes 6 city-center offices and 24 business parks/centers.  These assets are spread across 6 cities — Hyderabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Gurugram, and GIFT City.

Pre-IPO Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals – Future Commercialization Is a Test

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • KJ017 is the first and only recombinant human hyaluronidase to reach NDA stage in China. Bao needs to combine SC Formulations with antibodies. KJ103 may not be a blockbuster variety.
  • Considering multiple mature FSH products have been on the market for many years and also been recognized by patients, Bao needs to invest in educating the market/patients to accept SJ02. 
  • After Series C+ Financing, Post-money valuation reached RMB4.87 billion. However, we think there could be some uncertainties in terms of future commercialization performance of Bao’s three core products. 

Softcare Pre-IPO – Strong Market Penetration but Gross Margins May Be Capped

By Nicholas Tan

  • Softcare (SOFT HK)  is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Softcare (SC) is an international hygiene product corporation engaged in the development, manufacturing and sales of baby and feminine hygiene products.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO Trading – KDIC Stake Overhang Remains, Yield Might Help

By Sumeet Singh

  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) raised around US$125m in its Korean IPO. 
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance (SGI) is a guarantee insurance firm operating predominantly in Korea.
  • We have looked at the firm’s past performance and discussed our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, Nickel Industries, Vedanta Resources, Bharti Airtel
  • In the US, JOLTS job openings increased slightly to 7.74 mn (7.60 mn e / 7.51 mn revised p) in January, with the job openings rate little changed m-o-m at 4.6%. Layoffs declined for a fourth straight month to the lowest level since June 2024.
  • Overall, the JOLTS report showed that the labour market was steady in January, albeit demand for labour could soften in the months ahead.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Trading Range Breakdown? ChipMOS Discount Rare Long Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Trading Range Breakdown? ChipMOS Discount Rare Long Opportunity
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Mar-2025): Semiconductor industry forecast for 2025.
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long
  • BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints
  • Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom
  • Initiation – Moresco (5018 JP)
  • Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations
  • SAP SE (SAP GR): A Lot of Efficiency Ahead
  • Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC
  • BYD (1211 HK) 2024 Result Preview: Expanding in Domestic Market and 19% Upside Left


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Trading Range Breakdown? ChipMOS Discount Rare Long Opportunity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +14.1% Premium; Given Latest Market Weakness, Safest to Wait for a Slightly Lower Premium Before Going Long
  • ASE: -1.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
  • ChipMOS: -6.8% Discount: Long the Spread, Historical Extreme Discount Level

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Mar-2025): Semiconductor industry forecast for 2025.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Semiconductor industry set to see significant growth by 2025 due to technology advancements and global demand for electronic devices.
  • TSMC proposes joint venture with Intel’s foundry division, showcasing industry collaboration for mutual benefit and innovation.
  • Huawei takes action against recruitment fraud, penalizing 72 employees, while Altera CEO highlights FPGA advantages over ASIC in AI technology.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?
  • TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex 
  • MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy 

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

By Suhas Reddy

  • BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. 
  • BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  
  • Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. 

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.
  • Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.
  • Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.

Initiation – Moresco (5018 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • MORESCO Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “MORESCO” or “the Company”) is a R&D-oriented company that has developed products boasting market-leading shares in Japan, such as fire-resistant hydraulic fluid for the steel and automotive industries and liquid paraffin used as ingredients in cosmetics, with the aim of achieving domestic production of special lubricants.
  • In recent years, the Company has successfully brought to market water soluble die casting lubricants and environmentally friendly hot melt adhesives.
  • In addition, it has also gained a leading global share in synthetic lubricants such as high temperature greases and hard disk surface lubricants. 

Brazil Banks – Buy Bradesco for Value and Improving Returns, Nubank Is Stretched on Valuations

By Victor Galliano

  • We stay negative on Nubank, even after the recent share correction; our rationale is tough competition, especially in Mexico, and worsening credit quality to remain a key risk in Brazil
  • We believe that the fundamental outlook for Bradesco should improve further, supported by its strong insurance operations; conservatively, we estimate insurance could account for two thirds of group value
  • Our neutral on Banco do Brasil is due largely to heightened political risk; holding company Itausa is the best indirect vehicle through which to gain equity exposure in Banco Itaú

SAP SE (SAP GR): A Lot of Efficiency Ahead

By Gregory Ramirez

  • FY 2025 guidance exceeds previous expectations, with cloud revenues expected to grow 26-28%, and profit to rise 26-30%. Cloud revenues are expected to reach 70% by 2027. 
  • SAP optimises its cloud offerings and Opex, with a focus on driving long-term growth through its ‘land and expand’ strategy and AI. Recent senior appointments aim to support operational efficiency. 
  • SAP expands AI capabilities, with 50% of deals involving AI use cases. It is aiming to enhance AI agents while positioning itself to benefit from lower AI costs.

Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC

By Nicolas Baratte

  • The return of Mr. Tan as CEO suggests that spinning off or selling  Intel Foundry will accelerate, Intel’s focus should improve.
  • It probably also means scaling down considerably Intel manufacturing plans and outsourcing more to TSMC. If you can’t beat them, join them.
  • Now is not a good time to buy Semiconductor stocks. It will take a couple of years to fix Intel’s problems. TSMC will benefit.

BYD (1211 HK) 2024 Result Preview: Expanding in Domestic Market and 19% Upside Left

By Ming Lu

  • BYD will release its 2025 annual results on March 24.
  • The stock price has risen by 38% since our last buy rating on January 6.
  • However, we believe there is still an upside of 19% for the next twelve months.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification
  • Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?
  • Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows
  • Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted
  • Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?
  • ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress
  • Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues
  • NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit
  • Kakao Corp: Insiders Are Buying and Cancellation of Treasury Shares
  • WEX Launches $750M Tender Offer with Odd-Lot Provision Amidst Share Price Decline and Strategic Stake Increase


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

By David Blennerhassett

  • Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
  • Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
  • Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April  for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Activists Getting More Activish, Watch for Position Changes?

By Travis Lundy

  • The MBO for Proto Corp (4298 JP) where the founder/chair is buying out from minorities is being done at the wrong price. His reasons are good, but not for minorities.
  • One large foreign shareholder – the second largest shareholder of the firm – has offered substantial pushback in the form of a letter asking for discussions. That went nowhere.
  • So now they have come out harder. The solution here is a really big bump or a broken deal if investors keep the share price above the TOB price.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
  • Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
  • If the Unification completes, S&P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.

Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a long-form merger for Cayman incorporated companies, dissenters can petition the Grand Court for determination of fair value. For short form merges, that avenue of dissent was not available. 
  • But on the 28 January 2021, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a ‘short-form’ merger were entitled to dissent.
  • Changyou.com (CYOU US) appealed this decision in the Court of Appeal, and was dismissed. Then appealed to the Privy Council. In a judgement handed down yesterday, this was also dismissed. 

Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss how the Homeplus debacle is causing a major negative sentiment on MBK Partners from both the Korean government and the media.
  • This negative sentiment has grown so much that it could have a legitimate negative impact in the upcoming proxy vote for the control of Korea Zinc. 
  • The Korean government has targeted MBK for tax probe. Plus, a coalition of securities firms is expected to file a lawsuit against Homeplus and MBK. 

ESR Group (1821 HK): Steady Progress

By Arun George

  • ESR Group (1821 HK)’s preconditional scheme offer from the consortium is either cash (HK$13.00), scrip or a combination of cash/scrip. The offer is final.
  • On 7 March, the consortium disclosed two additional irrevocable (3.47% of outstanding shares) and satisfied two regulatory preconditions (UK FCA and Singapore MAS).
  • Since announcing the offer, peers have materially derated, lowering the vote risk. At the last close and for an end August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.5%/10.1%

Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11th November 2024, Silk Logistics (SLH AU) entered into an Offer by way of a Scheme with Dubai-based DP World, Australia’s biggest ports operator.
  • DP World offered A$2.14/share (less any dividends), a 45.6% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Silk’s board, and co-founders (holding ~46% of the shares out).
  • This looked all stitched up. Potentially a delay for ACCC/FIRB, but it felt like one that should get approved. But the ACCC has now detailed a comprehensive list of concerns.

NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit

By Travis Lundy

  • Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) is a small logistics provider. They specialise in LCL (“Less-Than-Container-Load” shipments around Asia. 
  • On 7 March 2025, the company agreed to a buyout via Tender Offer by IAPF2 – a buyout vehicle of IA Partners – a 3yr old PE firm in Japan.
  • This is 5.9x EBITDA. There’s minimal transparency. No guidance. The PE firm is putting down an equity check of 2x EBITDA and 4x earnings. But it’ll probably get done.

Kakao Corp: Insiders Are Buying and Cancellation of Treasury Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Kakao Corp (035720 KS) has two near-term positive catalysts. First is treasury shares cancellation. Second is insiders buying of its shares.
  • These moves suggest the management’s confidence in the company’s outlook ahead of the AGM on 26 March. 
  • In our view, one of the major reasons why the insiders are buying could be due to Kakao’s collaboration with OpenAI. 

WEX Launches $750M Tender Offer with Odd-Lot Provision Amidst Share Price Decline and Strategic Stake Increase

By Special Situation Investments

  • WEX launched a $750m tender offer to repurchase ~12% of shares at $148-$170/share, prioritizing odd lots.
  • Impactive Capital increased its stake in WEX from 5.6% to 6.7%, purchasing at $154.75/share average.
  • WEX is highly leveraged with net debt at 5x EBITDA, despite slowing growth and weak guidance.

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Daily Brief Macro: US Lands Some Disinflation In Feb-25 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US Lands Some Disinflation In Feb-25
  • CX Daily: China’s EV Sector Enters New Frontier With Solid-State Batteries
  • Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change
  • US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb’25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In
  • Canada: 25bp Rate Cut To 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Mar-25


US Lands Some Disinflation In Feb-25

By Phil Rush

  • The upwards trend in monthly US inflation of the past several months broke in February with a surprisingly steep slowing to 0.2% m-o-m, although airfares drove the downside.
  • Drift in consensus expectations is not yet obviously broken, with this outcome 0.2pp above forecasts from a month ago. A rebound after Easter remains likely.
  • Disinflation is unlikely to dissuade the Fed from holding rates in March. We doubt soft surveys will translate to recessionary conditions, so we still see no more Fed cuts.

CX Daily: China’s EV Sector Enters New Frontier With Solid-State Batteries

By Caixin Global

  • Batteries / In Depth: China’s EV sector enters new frontier with solid-state batteries
  • Sea /Environmentalists sound alarm over sea reclamation project
  • Property /Analysis: Will China’s major cities propel a housing market recovery?

Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change

By Farah Miller

  • The tire majors losing volume   
  • Smaller tire makers gaining prominence   
  • Most tire majors saw flat or drop in profits

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb’25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump’s policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb’25) was at a 46-month low. 
  • Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. 
  • Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. 

Canada: 25bp Rate Cut To 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Mar-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Bank of Canada cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with expectations, as heightened US trade tensions introduced downside risks to economic activity despite stronger-than-anticipated GDP growth.
  • Inflation remains near the 2% target but is expected to rise to 2.5% in March due to the expiry of temporary tax measures, while concerns over tariffs have lifted short-term inflation expectations.
  • The Bank will closely assess the balance between weaker demand and higher cost pressures, maintaining a data-dependent approach to future rate decisions, with inflation expectations and trade policy developments being key determinants.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Naigai Trans Line, Silk Logistics, Lonking Holdings, Eneco Energy Limited, Alfen, Frontier Management Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit
  • Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues
  • Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom
  • kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam 12 March (Alfen | Basic-Fit)
  • Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…


NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit

By Travis Lundy

  • Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) is a small logistics provider. They specialise in LCL (“Less-Than-Container-Load” shipments around Asia. 
  • On 7 March 2025, the company agreed to a buyout via Tender Offer by IAPF2 – a buyout vehicle of IA Partners – a 3yr old PE firm in Japan.
  • This is 5.9x EBITDA. There’s minimal transparency. No guidance. The PE firm is putting down an equity check of 2x EBITDA and 4x earnings. But it’ll probably get done.

Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11th November 2024, Silk Logistics (SLH AU) entered into an Offer by way of a Scheme with Dubai-based DP World, Australia’s biggest ports operator.
  • DP World offered A$2.14/share (less any dividends), a 45.6% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Silk’s board, and co-founders (holding ~46% of the shares out).
  • This looked all stitched up. Potentially a delay for ACCC/FIRB, but it felt like one that should get approved. But the ACCC has now detailed a comprehensive list of concerns.

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.
  • Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.
  • Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.

kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”

By Geoff Howie

  • Eneco Energy plans to diversify beyond airport cargo logistics, aiming for profitable, cash flow-generative businesses through acquisitions.
  • RichLand Logistics seeks to acquire a warehouse, enhance fleet utilization, and expand its logistics value chain.
  • Eneco generated S$3.0 million net cash from operations with total equity of S$19.40 million as of 31 Dec 2024.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam 12 March (Alfen | Basic-Fit)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Alfen | CCO Michelle Lesh to step down • Basic-Fit | adjusting its strategy to a better balance between growth and cash flow generation

Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Frontier Management announced its full-year FY2024/12 results after market close on February 13, 2025.
  • Net sales came in at JPY 9,265 mn, surpassing the forecast target of JPY 9,000 mn, mainly thanks to an increase in revenue from deals in the M&A Advisory Business.
  • In addition to this increase in sales, cost-cutting measures in consulting-based businesses proved successful, which helped reduce operating losses from the forecasted JPY 950 mn to JPY 632 mn.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Rio Tinto Ltd, Korea Zinc, BP , Moresco Corp, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Zephyr Energy, Valeura Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification
  • Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows
  • Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?
  • BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints
  • Initiation – Moresco (5018 JP)
  • Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change
  • Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Key Paradox well test results expected in April
  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Investor visit: adding depth and breadth


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Shareholders To Vote On Merits Of Unification

By David Blennerhassett

  • Palliser Capital, which reportedly holds ~$300mn in Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU/LN) shares across its dual-head structure, has campaigned for near-on a year to unify the primary listing in Australia.
  • Palliser’s reasonings (and others) to unify make sense, such as access to stock-based mergers and eliminating franking wastage. A recent independent assessment from Grant Thornton is also supportive of unification.
  • Shareholders will vote on the resolution on 3rd April  for UK-listed shares and 1st May for Australian-listed shares. The UK line holds the key to the vote outcome.

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
  • Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
  • If the Unification completes, S&P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.

Is Homeplus Debacle a Key Negative Tipping Point for MBK?

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss how the Homeplus debacle is causing a major negative sentiment on MBK Partners from both the Korean government and the media.
  • This negative sentiment has grown so much that it could have a legitimate negative impact in the upcoming proxy vote for the control of Korea Zinc. 
  • The Korean government has targeted MBK for tax probe. Plus, a coalition of securities firms is expected to file a lawsuit against Homeplus and MBK. 

BP’s Strategy Reset Stumbles as Dividend Cut, Oil & Gas Output Target Disappoints

By Suhas Reddy

  • BP will increase oil and gas spending to USD 10 billion annually through 2027, comprising 66%-70% of total capex, while slashing renewable energy investments by over USD 5 billion. 
  • BP reduced its quarterly buybacks to USD 0.75–1 billion from USD 1.75 billion and lowered annual capex to USD 13–15 billion through 2027.  
  • Elliott Investment Management is reportedly dissatisfied with BP’s strategy reset, criticizing it for lacking urgency and ambition, potentially prompting further strategic adjustments from the company. 

Initiation – Moresco (5018 JP)

By Sessa Investment Research

  • MORESCO Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “MORESCO” or “the Company”) is a R&D-oriented company that has developed products boasting market-leading shares in Japan, such as fire-resistant hydraulic fluid for the steel and automotive industries and liquid paraffin used as ingredients in cosmetics, with the aim of achieving domestic production of special lubricants.
  • In recent years, the Company has successfully brought to market water soluble die casting lubricants and environmentally friendly hot melt adhesives.
  • In addition, it has also gained a leading global share in synthetic lubricants such as high temperature greases and hard disk surface lubricants. 

Annual Tire Company Results Show Pace Of Change

By Farah Miller

  • The tire majors losing volume   
  • Smaller tire makers gaining prominence   
  • Most tire majors saw flat or drop in profits

Zephyr Energy Plc (AIM: ZPHR): Key Paradox well test results expected in April

By Auctus Advisors

  • • FY24 sales volumes averaged 1,149 boe/d including 139 bbl/d of NGL.
  • The NGL sales were higher than we were anticipating (~100 bbl/d) but FY24 production of 1,052 boe/d was impacted by downtime experienced in the Williston Basin in 4Q24 due to extreme weather in the area.
  • 4Q24 net production was 829 boe/d (plus NGL that we estimate at 90-100 bbl/d).

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Investor visit: adding depth and breadth

By Auctus Advisors

  • • Valeura hosted an investor trip to its operations in Thailand earlier this month.
  • The visit underscored three key aspects: (1) the extensive experience of the management team, (2) the strong relationships with Thai authorities, and (3) the substantial breadth of its assets, offering more potential than previously anticipated.
  • • Greg Kulawski, Valeura’s COO, brings extensive experience to the company’s shallow water operations in Thailand.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Naigai Trans Line, Silk Logistics, Lonking Holdings, Eneco Energy Limited, Alfen, Frontier Management Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit
  • Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues
  • Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom
  • kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam 12 March (Alfen | Basic-Fit)
  • Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…


NaiGai Trans (9384 JP) – Small LCL Shipping Founder Gets an Exit

By Travis Lundy

  • Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP) is a small logistics provider. They specialise in LCL (“Less-Than-Container-Load” shipments around Asia. 
  • On 7 March 2025, the company agreed to a buyout via Tender Offer by IAPF2 – a buyout vehicle of IA Partners – a 3yr old PE firm in Japan.
  • This is 5.9x EBITDA. There’s minimal transparency. No guidance. The PE firm is putting down an equity check of 2x EBITDA and 4x earnings. But it’ll probably get done.

Silk Logistics (SLH AU): ACCC’s Statement Of Issues

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 11th November 2024, Silk Logistics (SLH AU) entered into an Offer by way of a Scheme with Dubai-based DP World, Australia’s biggest ports operator.
  • DP World offered A$2.14/share (less any dividends), a 45.6% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Silk’s board, and co-founders (holding ~46% of the shares out).
  • This looked all stitched up. Potentially a delay for ACCC/FIRB, but it felt like one that should get approved. But the ACCC has now detailed a comprehensive list of concerns.

Lonking (3339 HK): Boom, Boom, Boom

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Industry sales of wheel loaders and excavators surged 16.5% and 27.2% in 2M25. For Feb alone, the growth rates are even more impressive at 34.4% and 52.8%, respectively.
  • Post-CNY, the utilisation hours and rates of construction machinery rose 70.3% YoY and 12.3pp. Market share gain in developing countries will drive exports.
  • Government supportive policies announced in NPC will provide support to demand. Current consensus forecasts for profit decline in FY25 are disconnected from industry data.

kopi-C with Eneco Energy’s Executive Director: ‘”We’re expanding beyond our expertise in airport cargo logistics to build a diversified portfolio of companies.”

By Geoff Howie

  • Eneco Energy plans to diversify beyond airport cargo logistics, aiming for profitable, cash flow-generative businesses through acquisitions.
  • RichLand Logistics seeks to acquire a warehouse, enhance fleet utilization, and expand its logistics value chain.
  • Eneco generated S$3.0 million net cash from operations with total equity of S$19.40 million as of 31 Dec 2024.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam 12 March (Alfen | Basic-Fit)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Alfen | CCO Michelle Lesh to step down • Basic-Fit | adjusting its strategy to a better balance between growth and cash flow generation

Frontier Management Inc. (7038 JP) – Reported Losses in FY2024/12…

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Frontier Management announced its full-year FY2024/12 results after market close on February 13, 2025.
  • Net sales came in at JPY 9,265 mn, surpassing the forecast target of JPY 9,000 mn, mainly thanks to an increase in revenue from deals in the M&A Advisory Business.
  • In addition to this increase in sales, cost-cutting measures in consulting-based businesses proved successful, which helped reduce operating losses from the forecasted JPY 950 mn to JPY 632 mn.

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Sign Up for Free

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Changyou.com, Bestechnic Shanghai , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Kakao Corp, Wex Inc, SAP , Intel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted
  • CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$3.6bn Round-Trip Trade
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Trading Range Breakdown? ChipMOS Discount Rare Long Opportunity
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Mar-2025): Semiconductor industry forecast for 2025.
  • Kakao Corp: Insiders Are Buying and Cancellation of Treasury Shares
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long
  • WEX Launches $750M Tender Offer with Odd-Lot Provision Amidst Share Price Decline and Strategic Stake Increase
  • SAP SE (SAP GR): A Lot of Efficiency Ahead
  • Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC


Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now (Definitely) Permitted

By David Blennerhassett

  • In a long-form merger for Cayman incorporated companies, dissenters can petition the Grand Court for determination of fair value. For short form merges, that avenue of dissent was not available. 
  • But on the 28 January 2021, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a ‘short-form’ merger were entitled to dissent.
  • Changyou.com (CYOU US) appealed this decision in the Court of Appeal, and was dismissed. Then appealed to the Privy Council. In a judgement handed down yesterday, this was also dismissed. 

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 10% Turnover; US$3.6bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With 85% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 June.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 10% at the rebalance resulting in a round-trip trade of CNY26.4bn (US$3.6bn). The Information Technology gains at the expense of Healthcare and Consumer Staples.
  • The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and the CSI Smallcap500 Index over the last 6 months. The best part is that the volatility of the trade is very low.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Trading Range Breakdown? ChipMOS Discount Rare Long Opportunity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +14.1% Premium; Given Latest Market Weakness, Safest to Wait for a Slightly Lower Premium Before Going Long
  • ASE: -1.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
  • ChipMOS: -6.8% Discount: Long the Spread, Historical Extreme Discount Level

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (13-Mar-2025): Semiconductor industry forecast for 2025.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Semiconductor industry set to see significant growth by 2025 due to technology advancements and global demand for electronic devices.
  • TSMC proposes joint venture with Intel’s foundry division, showcasing industry collaboration for mutual benefit and innovation.
  • Huawei takes action against recruitment fraud, penalizing 72 employees, while Altera CEO highlights FPGA advantages over ASIC in AI technology.

Kakao Corp: Insiders Are Buying and Cancellation of Treasury Shares

By Douglas Kim

  • Kakao Corp (035720 KS) has two near-term positive catalysts. First is treasury shares cancellation. Second is insiders buying of its shares.
  • These moves suggest the management’s confidence in the company’s outlook ahead of the AGM on 26 March. 
  • In our view, one of the major reasons why the insiders are buying could be due to Kakao’s collaboration with OpenAI. 

Taiwan Tech Weekly: If TSMC Joins Intel for Foundry, It Will Entrench Dominance; Structural Long

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC Eyes Intel Foundry Joint Venture: Strategic Expansion or Risky Bet?
  • TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex 
  • MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy 

WEX Launches $750M Tender Offer with Odd-Lot Provision Amidst Share Price Decline and Strategic Stake Increase

By Special Situation Investments

  • WEX launched a $750m tender offer to repurchase ~12% of shares at $148-$170/share, prioritizing odd lots.
  • Impactive Capital increased its stake in WEX from 5.6% to 6.7%, purchasing at $154.75/share average.
  • WEX is highly leveraged with net debt at 5x EBITDA, despite slowing growth and weak guidance.

SAP SE (SAP GR): A Lot of Efficiency Ahead

By Gregory Ramirez

  • FY 2025 guidance exceeds previous expectations, with cloud revenues expected to grow 26-28%, and profit to rise 26-30%. Cloud revenues are expected to reach 70% by 2027. 
  • SAP optimises its cloud offerings and Opex, with a focus on driving long-term growth through its ‘land and expand’ strategy and AI. Recent senior appointments aim to support operational efficiency. 
  • SAP expands AI capabilities, with 50% of deals involving AI use cases. It is aiming to enhance AI agents while positioning itself to benefit from lower AI costs.

Intel: A Better CEO that Understand that Intel Should Fix Its Own Problems, Not Compete with TSMC

By Nicolas Baratte

  • The return of Mr. Tan as CEO suggests that spinning off or selling  Intel Foundry will accelerate, Intel’s focus should improve.
  • It probably also means scaling down considerably Intel manufacturing plans and outsourcing more to TSMC. If you can’t beat them, join them.
  • Now is not a good time to buy Semiconductor stocks. It will take a couple of years to fix Intel’s problems. TSMC will benefit.

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