Daily Briefs

By Special Situation Investments

Last evening, Hang Seng announced a methodology change for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) with implementation in two phases.
The capping methodology will be updated at the September rebalance and the turnover and sector requirements will be updated at the December rebalance.
The updated capping scheme increases turnover and flow in September, while there could be one constituent change for the index at the December rebalance.

Near-Term Flows to Watch on Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

Dems likely to push 3rd package in Q4; near-term flows chasing treasury stock cancellation theme, with locals screening >₩1tn mkt cap, >10% treasury shares of float.
Little pushback on mandatory treasury cancellations; debate focused on timeline — grace period vs. immediate rollout — highlighting how much leeway government may grant differing governance structures.
Too early for governance plays; near-term momentum flows likely in names with highest treasury stock relative to float, where cancellation is expected to hit flows hardest.

At the US-Korea Summit, Samsung’s Next Move Could Reshape the US Chipboard

By Raghav Vashisht

Samsung has scaled back its Texas fab plans from 44 billion to 37 billion, but the summit may bring a top-up with Intel and Amkor partnerships.
Intel is shifting glass substrate patents to an Arm-like royalty model backed by SoftBank’s 2 billion stake and a 10 percent US government holding.
Samsung’s partnership would show alignment with US semiconductor policy at a time when subsidies and political backing matter as much as technology.

Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

By Andrew Jackson

Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals
Yields rose on concerns it’s going to be a ‘one and done’ situation after September cuts
Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday – with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action

2025 High Conviction: Newborn Town (9911.HK) – Deep Value – China’s Global Social Apps Expansion

By Raj S, CA, CFA

Newborn is a rare HK listed name entirely focused on overseas, monetising social networking apps across MENA and Southeast Asia, giving investors concentrated exposure to the China-to-overseas growth theme.
Stock trades at low-teens PE while revenues and profits grow above twenty-five percent CAGR, leaving a big valuation disconnect and plenty of room for re-rating compared to global peers.
The product matrix strategy means older apps provide cash, newer apps drive rapid scale, while a pipeline of apps ensures continuous replacement growth and resilience across user segments and geographies.

Netskope IPO Preview: A Hot Cybersecurity Play Is On Deck

By Andrei Zakharov

Netskope Inc., a VC-backed cybersecurity leader and provider of enterprise network security platform that helps customers apply zero trust principles to protect sensitive data, filed to go public.
The Santa Clara-based Netskope has raised a significant amount of equity and debt. According to Crunchbase, the company has raised ~$1B in equity across many rounds of funding.
With 30%+ ARR growth, improving profitability and leadership position, I expect a strong interest around high-profile Netskope IPO.

BTCS, Inc: Powering the Future of the Decentralized Economy with Ethereum

By Water Tower Research

We are initiating coverage of BTCS, Inc. (NASDAQ: BTCS), a pioneer in the blockchain technology sector since 2014. BTCS stands for Blockchain Technology Consensus Solutions, which is what it does for Ethereum, not Bitcoin (BTC).
BTCS is a US-based blockchain technology company focused on blockchain infrastructure, with its primary operations currently focused on the Ethereum network.
Its core focus is on driving scalable growth through a diverse range of blockchain-focused technological solutions, emphasizing Ethereum infrastructure, including block building and validator node operations.

DallasNews Faces Competing Bids Amidst Shareholder and Corporate Governance Tensions

DALN announced a merger with Hearst Communications at $15/share, a 275% premium to the pre-announcement price.
Alden Global Capital, owning 10% of DALN, made a competing bid of $18.50/share, which was ignored.
DALN’s financial struggles include declining print circulation and advertising revenues, despite cost-saving measures and asset sales.

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Aug 26

Daily Brief Health Care: Caliway Biopharmaceuticals, Max Healthcare Institute, Kovai Medical Center And Hos, CSL Ltd, Q & M Dental Group (Singapore), Charles River Laboratories, VolitionRX , Azitra, Cingulate, Ainos and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Hat Trick for Caliway Biopharma?
Quiddity NIFTY Sep25 Results: 13/14 Predictions Correct; Only One Surprise; ~US$1.2bn One-Way
Business Breakdown: Kovai Medical – A Regional Leader in a Growing National Market
CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Announces Job Cut and Vaccine Unit Spinout Amid Strong FY25 Financial Performance
Wave Of Director Acquisitions as Local Rally Takes a Breather
Charles River Laboratories: Initiation of Coverage- Leveraging Regulatory Wins – Will Flexibility Cement Its Market Leadership?
VNRX: Management seeks to secure multiple licensing agreements in the human diagnostic space with the 1st one expected in 3Q 2025.
AZTR: Second Quarter Update
CING: NDA Submitted
Ainos, Inc: AI Nose Gears Up for Large-Scale Commercialization in 2026

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Hat Trick for Caliway Biopharma?

There could be 2 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September – both changes are high probability.
Caliway Biopharmaceuticals (6919 TT) and King Slide Works (2059 TT) are being added to a global index at the close today and are potential inclusions to the ETF in September.
Caliway Biopharmaceuticals (6919 TT) will also be added to another global index at the close on 19 September, so more passive inflows for the stock. Reversion thereafter?

Quiddity NIFTY Sep25 Results: 13/14 Predictions Correct; Only One Surprise; ~US$1.2bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The semiannual index rebal events of the NIFTY 50 index and NIFTY 100 index will take place in September 2025. The index changes were announced on Friday 22nd August 2025.
There will be two changes for NIFTY 50 index and five changes to NIFTY 100.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations.

Business Breakdown: Kovai Medical – A Regional Leader in a Growing National Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Kovai Medical is entering Chennai with a 300–400 bed facility, marking its first move beyond Coimbatore and strengthening its presence in a high-growth metro market.
The medical college now contributes 7% of revenue, up from 3% in FY22, ensuring recurring cash flows and deeper clinical-academic integration.
Consistent investments in advanced robotics and AI-driven systems enhance KMCH’s differentiation, positioning it to capture premium demand and medical tourism opportunities in Southern India.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Announces Job Cut and Vaccine Unit Spinout Amid Strong FY25 Financial Performance

By Tina Banerjee

CSL Ltd (CSL AU) announced major strategic initiatives targeting annual pre-tax cost savings of >$500M by end of FY28. The initiatives will result in 15% reduction in CSL’s employee base.
CSL intends to demerge CSL Seqirus as a substantial ASX-listed entity by FY26. The remaining CSL group will continue to have leading market positions in multiple rare and serious diseases.
CSL reported on-target financial performance for FY25. The company has guided for FY26 revenue growth of 4–5% and NPATA (excluding non-recurring restructuring cost) of $3.45B–3.55B, up 7–10%.

Wave Of Director Acquisitions as Local Rally Takes a Breather

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a net outflow of S$53 million from August 15-21.
ISOTeam secured S$22.5 million in new contracts, boosting its order book to S$181.1 million for 24 months.
Q & M Dental Group raised S$130 million from a Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme for organic expansion and M&A.

Charles River Laboratories: Initiation of Coverage- Leveraging Regulatory Wins – Will Flexibility Cement Its Market Leadership?

By Baptista Research

Charles River Laboratories delivered a mixed financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, presenting some positive aspects alongside key challenges.
The company experienced solid financial results, surpassing prior forecasts, primarily driven by impressive Discovery and Safety Assessment (DSA) outcomes.
This segment benefited from strong bookings recorded in the first quarter, which provided significant momentum for the first half of the year.

VNRX: Management seeks to secure multiple licensing agreements in the human diagnostic space with the 1st one expected in 3Q 2025.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Primary operational goal for 2025 is to enter into multiple licensing agreements for human diagnostic applications, e.g. cancer & sepsis, emulating the strategy employed with the Nu.Q Veterinary Canine Cancer Test In addition, within Nu.Q NETs pillar, the commercial strategy to utilize the CE Mark has brought on 11 hospital networks in Europe that are ordering and re-ordering Nu.Q products for human application The final validation of the Lung Cancer study being conducted at National Taiwan University is planned for completion in late-2025.

AZTR: Second Quarter Update

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Azitra is developing genetically engineered bacteria for therapeutic use in dermatology.
The company possesses a microbial library of 1,500 unique bacterial strains that are candidates for a variety of indications.
Azitra’s lead candidate is ATR-12 for the rare disease Netherton syndrome (NS).

CING: NDA Submitted

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Cingulate is developing its Precision Timed Release (PTR) technology to deliver ADHD medicines to improve onset & efficacy of previously approved products.
It licensed rights to manufacturing a 3-layer tablet that releases dexmethylphenidate (CTx-1301) over the active day.
CTx-1301 provides immediate onset, eliminates the need for a booster dose, reduces diversion & simplifies dosing among other benefits.

Ainos, Inc: AI Nose Gears Up for Large-Scale Commercialization in 2026

By Water Tower Research

The pivot from biotech to AI technology company. While still committed to advancing its VELDONA drug platform to commercialization, Ainos’ growth strategy is now primarily being driven by its AI Nose SmellTech platform.
The pivot began in 2021 when Ainos acquired this AI Nose technology for initial deployment in healthcare settings.
However, with other significant opportunities beckoning, it has since been positioned as a platform technology with a substantial runway beyond healthcare.

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Aug 26

Daily Brief Industrials: Aux Electric, King Slide Works, Owens Corning, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Shuangdeng Group Co Ltd, ZTO Express Cayman , Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Q & M Dental Group (Singapore), Legence and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Aux Electric IPO (2580 HK): Valuation Insights
Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep25: Final Expectations; Tung Ho Steel Safe from TDIV Deletion
Owens Corning: Initiation of Coverage- Unlocking $125 Million in Doors Synergies—Will Integration Drive a Margin Breakthrough?
A New Era for Jardine Matheson: An Under-The-Radar Transformation.
AUX Electric IPO: Low-Price AC Strategy Drives Top Line Growth; Limited Upside to Margins
Shuangdeng Group IPO Trading: Strong Retail and Insti Demand
ZTO Express Q225 Results: No ‘Good’, Just the ‘Bad’ and the ‘Ugly’
MHI (7011 JP) Q1 Beat: Record Backlog & Policy Tailwinds Support Premium Valuation
Wave Of Director Acquisitions as Local Rally Takes a Breather
Legence Corp. (LGN): Peeking at the IPO Prosepctus of Blackstone Backed Engineering Firm

Aux Electric IPO (2580 HK): Valuation Insights

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Aux Electric (2580 HK) is the fifth-largest air conditioner provider globally as measured by volume. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$462 million.
I discussed the investment case in Aux Electric IPO: The Investment Case.
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price is attractive.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep25: Final Expectations; Tung Ho Steel Safe from TDIV Deletion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
Today is the base date for the September 2025 index rebal event and the expected ADDs/DELs discussed in this insight are our final index change expectations.
We expect two changes for T50 and five changes for the T100 index for the September 2025 rebal.

Owens Corning: Initiation of Coverage- Unlocking $125 Million in Doors Synergies—Will Integration Drive a Margin Breakthrough?

By Baptista Research

Owens Corning’s second quarter of 2025 demonstrated a blend of strategic advancement and lingering market challenges.
The company reported a 10% revenue increase compared to the prior year, with revenues reaching notable highs due partly to the addition of its Doors business in May of the previous year.
This addition reflects strategic diversification efforts to capture a larger share of the building products market in North America and Europe despite a softening market environment.

A New Era for Jardine Matheson: An Under-The-Radar Transformation.

By Michael Fritzell

After Ben Keswick took over Jardine Matheson, the company has slowly transitioned away from being an owner-operator to more of a portfolio manager.
The privatization of Jardine Strategic was under-priced, but it also simplified the corporate structure. That should be positive for minorities in the long term.
Jardine Matheson’s own board has now been stacked with private equity professionals. And new CEO Lincoln Pan comes from private equity firm PAG, where he built up its non-China business.

AUX Electric IPO: Low-Price AC Strategy Drives Top Line Growth; Limited Upside to Margins

AUX Electric is one of the top 5 air conditioner providers globally whose low-price strategy has helped expand its top line and market share in a short span of time.
Aux Electric (2580 HK) has filed for an IPO on HKEx and plans to raise proceeds of around US$460m through the issuance of 207m shares.
AUX’s low-price strategy and higher share of ODM brands have led to margins that are lower than domestic AC peers Gree Electric Appliances (000651 CH) and Midea Group (300 HK) .

Shuangdeng Group IPO Trading: Strong Retail and Insti Demand

By Nicholas Tan

Shuangdeng Group Co Ltd (JISHUZ CH) raised around US$109m in its Hong Kong IPO.
It is a global leader in the energy storage business.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

ZTO Express Q225 Results: No ‘Good’, Just the ‘Bad’ and the ‘Ugly’

By Daniel Hellberg

The Bad: Margins & cash flow both declined sharply compared to Q224
The Ugly: ZTO cut FY25 parcel volume growth target after a sluggish H1
With no signs of a turnaround in sight, we retain our negative view of ZTO

MHI (7011 JP) Q1 Beat: Record Backlog & Policy Tailwinds Support Premium Valuation

By Rahul Jain

MHI posted Q1 FY25 revenue +7% and business profit +25% with resilient Energy/Aero margins.
Orders/Backlog/Guidance: Order intake fell 4% on tough comps, but backlog hit a record ¥10.8 tn (2.1× cover); FY25 guidance of ¥4.95 tn revenue and ¥380 bn profit maintained.
Valuation/Growth: Shares trade at ~19× FY27E EV/EBITDA vs peers at 10–15×, supported by 5–6% revenue CAGR and ~9–10% EPS CAGR through FY28.

Wave Of Director Acquisitions as Local Rally Takes a Breather

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a net outflow of S$53 million from August 15-21.
ISOTeam secured S$22.5 million in new contracts, boosting its order book to S$181.1 million for 24 months.
Q & M Dental Group raised S$130 million from a Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme for organic expansion and M&A.

Legence Corp. (LGN): Peeking at the IPO Prosepctus of Blackstone Backed Engineering Firm

By IPO Boutique

Private equity giant Blackstone is bringing a system services company public in September.
Revenue increased $78.1 million, or 15%, during the three months ended June 30, 2025 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2024.
As of June 30, 2025, they had $2.8 billion of backlog and awarded contracts, representing an increase of 29% over the same date last year.

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Aug 26

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: PDD (PDD): 2Q25 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

PDD (PDD): 2Q25, Impacted by High Comparison Base and Overseas Expansion
Laopu Gold (6181.HK) 25H1 – Remember to Escape Before Collapsing
At the US-Korea Summit, Samsung’s Next Move Could Reshape the US Chipboard
Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs
Owens Corning: Initiation of Coverage- Unlocking $125 Million in Doors Synergies—Will Integration Drive a Margin Breakthrough?
A New Era for Jardine Matheson: An Under-The-Radar Transformation.
GEC: Pioneering Integrated Student Housing Solutions
Dream International (1126 HK) H1 FY25: Steady + Dividend Increase
Business Breakdown: Kovai Medical – A Regional Leader in a Growing National Market
CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Announces Job Cut and Vaccine Unit Spinout Amid Strong FY25 Financial Performance

PDD (PDD): 2Q25, Impacted by High Comparison Base and Overseas Expansion

By Ming Lu

Transaction services revenue was stagnant due to high comparison base.
The gross margin declined significantly due to the overseas expansion.
However, we believe revenue growth and margins will be stable in the long run.

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) 25H1 – Remember to Escape Before Collapsing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Laopu maintained high growth in 25H1, mainly benefit from the upward cycle of gold price and the continuous improvement of the brand power. Accordingly, we raised our 2025 performance forecast.
The key issue here is the sustainability of performance during stable and declining cycle of gold hasn’t been verified. Especially when gold price drops, it will also cause inventory depreciation.
Laopu cannot “escape” the gold price cycle.The Fed’s rate cuts are usually accompanied by fluctuations in asset prices, and gold may also face sell-off, which may lead to valuation decline.

At the US-Korea Summit, Samsung’s Next Move Could Reshape the US Chipboard

By Raghav Vashisht

Samsung has scaled back its Texas fab plans from 44 billion to 37 billion, but the summit may bring a top-up with Intel and Amkor partnerships.
Intel is shifting glass substrate patents to an Arm-like royalty model backed by SoftBank’s 2 billion stake and a 10 percent US government holding.
Samsung’s partnership would show alignment with US semiconductor policy at a time when subsidies and political backing matter as much as technology.

Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

By Andrew Jackson

Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals
Yields rose on concerns it’s going to be a ‘one and done’ situation after September cuts
Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday – with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action

Owens Corning: Initiation of Coverage- Unlocking $125 Million in Doors Synergies—Will Integration Drive a Margin Breakthrough?

By Baptista Research

Owens Corning’s second quarter of 2025 demonstrated a blend of strategic advancement and lingering market challenges.
The company reported a 10% revenue increase compared to the prior year, with revenues reaching notable highs due partly to the addition of its Doors business in May of the previous year.
This addition reflects strategic diversification efforts to capture a larger share of the building products market in North America and Europe despite a softening market environment.

A New Era for Jardine Matheson: An Under-The-Radar Transformation.

By Michael Fritzell

After Ben Keswick took over Jardine Matheson, the company has slowly transitioned away from being an owner-operator to more of a portfolio manager.
The privatization of Jardine Strategic was under-priced, but it also simplified the corporate structure. That should be positive for minorities in the long term.
Jardine Matheson’s own board has now been stacked with private equity professionals. And new CEO Lincoln Pan comes from private equity firm PAG, where he built up its non-China business.

GEC: Pioneering Integrated Student Housing Solutions

By Atrium Research

What you need to know: • GEC has over 33 years of operating history with deep education roots, offering student housing and academic services across 24 locations.
• GEC has a proven track record of value creation with a 3x return on the sale of SSCC and strong gains on multiple real estate assets; GEC will now focus on transitioning to a student housing pure play company.
• The Company has a development pipeline of ~2,900 beds and over $40M in revenue coming online over the next five years, supported by favourable government policy and elite development partners.

Dream International (1126 HK) H1 FY25: Steady + Dividend Increase

By Sameer Taneja

Dream International (1126 HK) reported a solid result with revenues/profits up 12%/10% YoY, led by a healthy growth in both the plush and plastic toy segments
The company sees an opportunity in growing its presence in China locally to counter the tariff threats. We will get more color on this in the Sept 1st conference call.
Trading at 13.5x FY25 PE, with net cash 15% of the market cap, a 4% dividend yield, and a four-year ROCE averaging >20%, we would explore the name on dips.

Business Breakdown: Kovai Medical – A Regional Leader in a Growing National Market

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Kovai Medical is entering Chennai with a 300–400 bed facility, marking its first move beyond Coimbatore and strengthening its presence in a high-growth metro market.
The medical college now contributes 7% of revenue, up from 3% in FY22, ensuring recurring cash flows and deeper clinical-academic integration.
Consistent investments in advanced robotics and AI-driven systems enhance KMCH’s differentiation, positioning it to capture premium demand and medical tourism opportunities in Southern India.

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Announces Job Cut and Vaccine Unit Spinout Amid Strong FY25 Financial Performance

By Tina Banerjee

CSL Ltd (CSL AU) announced major strategic initiatives targeting annual pre-tax cost savings of >$500M by end of FY28. The initiatives will result in 15% reduction in CSL’s employee base.
CSL intends to demerge CSL Seqirus as a substantial ASX-listed entity by FY26. The remaining CSL group will continue to have leading market positions in multiple rare and serious diseases.
CSL reported on-target financial performance for FY25. The company has guided for FY26 revenue growth of 4–5% and NPATA (excluding non-recurring restructuring cost) of $3.45B–3.55B, up 7–10%.

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Aug 26

Daily Brief Financials: Shinyoung Securities, Gemini Space Station, Dollar Index, Hang Seng Index, Mediobanca SpA, Q & M Dental Group (Singapore), HDFC Bank, China Vanke and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Surprise National Assembly Moves: 2nd Commercial Act Amendments & Yellow Envelope Law
Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a High Profile Crypto-Platform
Global FX: The weak dollar view passes a flow test
Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29
Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer
Wave Of Director Acquisitions as Local Rally Takes a Breather
HDFC Bank Limited: Record Ownership and Dominance Among EM Financials
China Vanke – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2025 Results – Lucror Analytics

Surprise National Assembly Moves: 2nd Commercial Act Amendments & Yellow Envelope Law

By Sanghyun Park

Major governance shake-up: >KRW 2T companies face mandatory cumulative voting, giving minorities real board influence, while audit committee split votes expand from 1 to 2+, boosting independence.
Trade sweet spot is holdcos and brokers with high treasury stock and retail float. Bloated buybacks may drive cancellations, sparking quick momentum trades in messy-governance names.
Today, holdcos and brokers with 10%+ treasury stock and >₩500bn market cap are leading pops, driving action and attracting fast-money flows.

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a High Profile Crypto-Platform

By IPO Boutique

The company that describes its mission is to unlock the next era of financial, creative, and personal freedom filed for an IPO on August 15th.
As of June 30, 2025, they serve approximately 523,000 MTUs and approximately 10,000 institutions in over 60 countries, with over $18 billion of assets on their platform.
Their total revenue was $98.1 million and $142.2 million and their net loss was $319.7 million and $158.5 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Global FX: The weak dollar view passes a flow test

By At Any Rate

Dollar undervaluation has closed in the past three months, but institutional Fed credibility news has not had a durable effect on the price.
Concerns about exceptionalism in US equity market strength potentially pushing the dollar higher are countered by better growth not being US exclusive and the impact of inflation on currency.
Despite large inflows into US equities in June, the dollar fell substantially, raising questions about the relationship between flows and dollar strength.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29

By Nico Rosti

A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 25 – August 29. .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet, S&P 500 INDEX , Tesla , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , ASX 200 INDEX , CSI 300 Index , HSI INDEX.
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Softbank Group (9984 JP).

Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Mediobanca trades as a cheap option on a BMPS bump: limited downside, positive skew, and convergence momentum after Generali defence failed. Positioning risk/reward is asymmetric into the September deadline.
With BMPS paper implying little premium, spread tightness reflects embedded expectations of a bump. Investors effectively hold optionality: upside on improved terms, downside cushioned by franchise value and sector consolidation.
Regulatory overhang looks contained: ECB signed off, Rome aligned. Focus shifts to September 8 acceptance deadline, where pressure builds on BMPS to sweeten terms and avoid a messy partial outcome.

Wave Of Director Acquisitions as Local Rally Takes a Breather

By Geoff Howie

Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a net outflow of S$53 million from August 15-21.
ISOTeam secured S$22.5 million in new contracts, boosting its order book to S$181.1 million for 24 months.
Q & M Dental Group raised S$130 million from a Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme for organic expansion and M&A.

HDFC Bank Limited: Record Ownership and Dominance Among EM Financials

By Steven Holden

ChatGPT said: HDFC Bank is now held by 71% of active EM funds — an all-time high, with steady inflows and just one exit in six months.
Aggressive Growth funds show strongest conviction, with multiple holders above a 7% weight.
Post-Merger, HDFC has widened its lead over ICICI and regional peers, cementing its role as EM managers’ core financials exposure.

China Vanke – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2025 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

China Vanke’s H1/25 results remained weak, mainly due to operating losses at its property development segment.
The property development gross margin continued to contract, as the company continued to deliver projects with high land costs.
Earnings were also impacted by impairment charges amid persistent industry weakness, as well as fair value losses from asset disposals.

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Aug 26

Daily Brief Macro: Weather Signals Point To Mixed Rainfall Across Rubber Belt and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Weather Signals Point To Mixed Rainfall Across Rubber Belt
Late 1990s Bubble Comparison to Current Cycle Requires Nuanced Analysis
Global FX: The weak dollar view passes a flow test
Asian Equities: Eleven Robust Earnings Gainers Post Reporting Season
Real Asset Chartbook Week #18: Lithium Blinks, Gas Slips, Copper Stalls—Who Survives the Grind?
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 August

Weather Signals Point To Mixed Rainfall Across Rubber Belt

By Vinod Nedumudy

South Asian Monsoon to be active till Sept-end, may disrupt supply
Indian production to improve next month, can pressure prices
Cambodia, Laos equipped to forecast floods five days in advance

Late 1990s Bubble Comparison to Current Cycle Requires Nuanced Analysis

By Said Desaque

Despite the growing chorus of comparisons, the backdrop to the late 1990s equity bubble was fundamentally different from the current environment, notably in the manner of Fed policy conduct.
During the late 1990s, Fed policy conduct was characterised by pivots, particularly after the Asian financial crisis and bailout of Long Term Capital Management, helping to prolong the equity bubble.
Forward P/E multiples on US equities were more elevated in the late 1990s compared with current levels. Valuations have been more volatile in the current cycle, courtesy of Fed policy.

Global FX: The weak dollar view passes a flow test

By At Any Rate

Dollar undervaluation has closed in the past three months, but institutional Fed credibility news has not had a durable effect on the price.
Concerns about exceptionalism in US equity market strength potentially pushing the dollar higher are countered by better growth not being US exclusive and the impact of inflation on currency.
Despite large inflows into US equities in June, the dollar fell substantially, raising questions about the relationship between flows and dollar strength.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Asian Equities: Eleven Robust Earnings Gainers Post Reporting Season

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

Near the end of the earnings reporting season, our earnings estimate tracker identified 11 robust earnings estimate gainers – with consensus EPS estimates up across 3-month and 6-month time horizons.
Onshore China communications and financials, HK technology, Korean and Singapore financials are the prominent “winner” sectors. Five other ASEAN sectors also figure on the list.
Earlier, in June, we detected 16 “consistent winner” market-sectors. The earnings environment has deteriorated slightly. Of the prominent stocks, Tencent, Hana Financials and DBS Group figure in our Model Portfolio.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #18: Lithium Blinks, Gas Slips, Copper Stalls—Who Survives the Grind?

By Massif Capital Research

This Week’s Key Take Aways

Lithium stock run may already be out of steam
Like Oil, the Natural Gas markets appear well supplied and are showing near-term weakness.
No love for North American lumber
Copper continues to have us on edge, love the long-term story, but we have got to survive the short and medium term to get there.
Renewable tax credit qualification has a new physical work standard; the race is on to build.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 August

By Iain Pocock

Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious even with round of stock-replenishment in coming weeks.
Asia’s lube demand likely to rise over coming months after bottoming out in month of August.
Lower demand in August likely triggers pick-up in surplus supplies in Asia-Pacific region.

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Aug 26

Daily Brief Consumer: Dongfeng Motor, Nissan Motor, Cheng Shin Rubber Ind Co., Ltd., Ashimori Industry, PDD Holdings, Laopu Gold, JTC Inc/Fukuoka, Aux Electric, Alibaba, Coupang and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing
Nissan Motor Placement – Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep25: US$591mn One-Way Flows; High-Impact for Some Names
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Potential Endgames as Murakami Builds a Stake
PDD (PDD): 2Q25, Impacted by High Comparison Base and Overseas Expansion
Laopu Gold (6181.HK) 25H1 – Remember to Escape Before Collapsing
Double Tender Offer Volume of JTC by Affirma Capital (10.4 Million Additional Shares)
Aux Electric IPO: Smallest Player but Superior Growth and Margins
Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View
SoftBank Sold 2.3 Trillion Won Worth of Coupang In 2025

Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing

By David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) has announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm.
The same day as the dual proposals, Dongfeng announced an interim loss (1H25). Evidently, the way forward – from an investor standpoint – is electric, not internal combustion engines.
The cash terms + scrip (into the EV listing) under the proposals are attractive. Even after this morning’s move (+53.6%) in Dongfeng’s share price.

Nissan Motor Placement – Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust aims to raise around US$330m via selling its 3.8% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP).
The discount seems enticing, however, the company’s recent share performance and longer term track record aren’t great.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Sep25: US$591mn One-Way Flows; High-Impact for Some Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2025 index rebal event.
We expect no changes for the TDIV index for September 2025 rebal and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$591mn.

Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Potential Endgames as Murakami Builds a Stake

Takateru Murakami, Yoshiaki Murakami’s son, reported a 10.88% ownership ratio in Ashimori Industry (3526 JP). The purchases were from 14 to 18 August, i.e., after the tender offer announcement.
Takateru Murakami’s average buy-in price of JPY4,134.79 per share is broadly in line with the Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s JPY4,140 tender offer.
Murakami’s disclosure suggests three possibilities: 1) force Toyoda Gosei to bump, 2) reach an agreement to rollover its shares into the BidCo or 3) a combination of 1 and 2.

PDD (PDD): 2Q25, Impacted by High Comparison Base and Overseas Expansion

By Ming Lu

Transaction services revenue was stagnant due to high comparison base.
The gross margin declined significantly due to the overseas expansion.
However, we believe revenue growth and margins will be stable in the long run.

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) 25H1 – Remember to Escape Before Collapsing

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Laopu maintained high growth in 25H1, mainly benefit from the upward cycle of gold price and the continuous improvement of the brand power. Accordingly, we raised our 2025 performance forecast.
The key issue here is the sustainability of performance during stable and declining cycle of gold hasn’t been verified. Especially when gold price drops, it will also cause inventory depreciation.
Laopu cannot “escape” the gold price cycle.The Fed’s rate cuts are usually accompanied by fluctuations in asset prices, and gold may also face sell-off, which may lead to valuation decline.

Double Tender Offer Volume of JTC by Affirma Capital (10.4 Million Additional Shares)

By Douglas Kim

On 25 August, Affirma Capital announced that it will be doubling the tender offer volume of JTC from 10.43 million shares previously to 20.87 million shares (40.4% of outstanding shares).
Affirma Capital’s stake in JTC will increase from the existing 29.2% to 69.5% after this second tender offer.
There were a total of 21.5 million international visitors to Japan from January to June 2025, up 21% YoY. This is a record breaking figure.

Aux Electric IPO: Smallest Player but Superior Growth and Margins

By Nicholas Tan

Aux Electric (2580 HK) is looking to raise up to US$460m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is one of the global top five air conditioner providers, with capabilities covering the design, R&D, production, sales and related services of household and central air conditioners.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View

Alibaba (9988 HK/ BABA US)will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time. The timing is crucial for options expiries in HK and the US.
Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.
Why Read: Get the expected move and a view of the post-event volatility term structure.

SoftBank Sold 2.3 Trillion Won Worth of Coupang In 2025

By Douglas Kim

It was reported today that SoftBank sold 2.3 trillion won ($1.7 billion) worth of Coupang (CPNG US) shares this year.
The total number of Coupang shares sold in three rounds this year by SoftBank is 60 million, worth $1.66 billion (2.3 trillion won).
We believe that this partial stake sale of SoftBank by Coupang is likely to have a moderately negative impact on Coupang.

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Aug 26

Most Read: Dongfeng Motor, Sony Financial Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, Max Healthcare Institute, Nissan Motor, Smart Share Global, Xiaomi, Shinyoung Securities and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer
Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing
[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share
[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of over Shibaura (6957 JP)
NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases
Nissan Motor Placement – Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great
Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks
Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII): Methodology Change & Impact
Surprise National Assembly Moves: 2nd Commercial Act Amendments & Yellow Envelope Law

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): DFM’s Attractive Privatisation Offer

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
The offer comprises HK$6.68 + 0.3552608 VOYAH H Shares per H Share, which is valued at HK$10.85 per H Share, a 81.7% premium to the last close price.
The vote is low risk as the offer is attractive. It values the remaining business at a premium multiple, and the appraised value of HK$11.735 per VOYAH share is conservative.

Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing

By David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) has announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm.
The same day as the dual proposals, Dongfeng announced an interim loss (1H25). Evidently, the way forward – from an investor standpoint – is electric, not internal combustion engines.
The cash terms + scrip (into the EV listing) under the proposals are attractive. Even after this morning’s move (+53.6%) in Dongfeng’s share price.

[Quiddity Index] The Sony Financial Spinoff – What To Do?

By Travis Lundy

Sony Financial Group (perhaps 8729 JP) will be spun off from SONY on 29 September 2025. The nominal share price will be “low” – likely 4-6% of Sony’s price.
Index treatment is largely known with the exception of a market cap trigger to stay in or get the boot from one major global index provider’s set of large-midcap indices.
There is a buyback to come which will offset global active manager “I don’t want this” overhang. There are technical trades to do here too but overall I am positive.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Aug) – Dongfeng, ENN Energy, Shibaura, Santos, Lynch, Smart Share

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

[Japan M&A] YAGEO Upping the Stakes in the Game of over Shibaura (6957 JP)

By Travis Lundy

On 14-Aug, Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) upped their TOB on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from ¥5,500 to ¥6,200, but set the close before rival bidder YAGEO’s likely FEFTA approval date.
On 21-Aug, YAGEO responded by upping the bid 7% to ¥6,635. Minebea responded by saying no raise, no extension. Minebea was playing chicken. Shares fell Friday.
Very early Saturday, the Nikkei reported YAGEO would raise to the “¥7,100 range.” Reuters later reported YAGEO had raised to ¥7,130. Exactly 15% above Minebea. On YAGEO’s website.

NIFTY50/NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Bunch Of (Mostly) Expected Changes; Positioning Increases

By Special Situation Investments

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) and Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) replace Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) in September.
There are 5 constituent changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) leading to 4 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX).
There will be global passive buying in Swiggy (SWIGGY IN) on Tuesday. Then there will be net selling in the stock at the close on 29 September.

Nissan Motor Placement – Discount Is Enticing but Track Record and Momentum Aren’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

Mercedes-Benz Pension Trust aims to raise around US$330m via selling its 3.8% stake in Nissan Motor (7201 JP).
The discount seems enticing, however, the company’s recent share performance and longer term track record aren’t great.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Merger Arbitrage, Trial Delays, Strategic Reviews, and Buybacks

Smart Share Global’s management consortium offered $1.25/ADS, with Hillhouse’s competing bid at $1.77/ADS, a 33% spread.
Mayne Pharma’s trial delayed to September 22, with Harvest Lane trimming its stake; spread to Cosette’s offer is 47%.
Gore Street Energy Storage faced significant shareholder dissent; RM Funds calls for Chairman’s resignation amid strategic review efforts.

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII): Methodology Change & Impact

Last evening, Hang Seng announced a methodology change for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) with implementation in two phases.
The capping methodology will be updated at the September rebalance and the turnover and sector requirements will be updated at the December rebalance.
The updated capping scheme increases turnover and flow in September, while there could be one constituent change for the index at the December rebalance.

Surprise National Assembly Moves: 2nd Commercial Act Amendments & Yellow Envelope Law

By Sanghyun Park

Major governance shake-up: >KRW 2T companies face mandatory cumulative voting, giving minorities real board influence, while audit committee split votes expand from 1 to 2+, boosting independence.
Trade sweet spot is holdcos and brokers with high treasury stock and retail float. Bloated buybacks may drive cancellations, sparking quick momentum trades in messy-governance names.
Today, holdcos and brokers with 10%+ treasury stock and >₩500bn market cap are leading pops, driving action and attracting fast-money flows.

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Aug 25

Daily Brief Australia: Mayne Pharma, Scentre Group, Yancoal Australia, Iron Ore, Phosphagenics Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)
Earnings as Catalyst for Scentre Group (SCG AU) Vs. Stockland (SGP AU) As Price Ratio Widens
Woodside (WDS AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Spread Deviation Sparks Trading Signal
Iron Ore: Reiterate Fall to 95 USD/Ton In the Near Term
Avecho Biotechnology Ltd – Waking the sleeping giant

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Aug) – Mayne Pharma, PointsBet, Lynch, Dongfeng Motor, ENN Energy, Shibaura

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Aux Electric Co Ltd (0917839D HK) is seeking to raise US$600 million, Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (25 Aug)

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlight: Currently eight pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Earnings as Catalyst for Scentre Group (SCG AU) Vs. Stockland (SGP AU) As Price Ratio Widens

Context: The Scentre Group (SCG AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
Highlights:Stockland (SGP AU) rallied 7.0% on 20 August after reporting results, creating a gap between the two stocks. Scentre Group (SCG AU) is set to report on 26 August,
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Woodside (WDS AU) Vs. Yancoal (YAL AU): Spread Deviation Sparks Trading Signal