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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, UMP Healthcare, Tasly Pharmaceutical Group, BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp., Dr. Wu Skincare, Daiichi Sankyo, Masimo Corp, GENOVA , Exelixis Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Theatre of the Absurd
  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | UMP Healthcare: Undervalued Gem in Hong Kong’s Healthcare Market
  • TCM (570 HK): “Uncertain” To Spook Shares
  • CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly (600535.CH) Update – This Is Already a Done Deal
  • BenQ BM Pre-IPO – Core Operations Are Steady but Has Been Losing Market Share
  • Dr Wu Skincare (6523) – Thursday, Jul 18, 2024
  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) Valuation Update – Are We There Yet?
  • Masimo Corporation: Expansion into Consumer Health Products & Other Major Drivers
  • GENOVA (9341 JP): 70% Rally Over the Last Two Months; Here’s Why Outperformance to Continue
  • Exelixis Inc.: Expansion Of Cabometyx


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Theatre of the Absurd

By Arun George

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update notes that the consortium has secured SAMR approval and made progress in obtaining the other regulatory approvals. 
  • As expected, the precondition will not be satisfied before the 18 October long stop date. Unexpectedly, whether the consortium members will consent to the extension remains uncertain.
  • The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from a deal break, the time investment is significant, and the warning was legally required.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | UMP Healthcare: Undervalued Gem in Hong Kong’s Healthcare Market

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar, we are glad to welcome UMP Healthcare’s Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary, Patrick Cheung. 

In the upcoming webinar, Patrick will share a short company presentation after which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Sameer Taneja. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 23 October 2024, 15:00 SGT/HKT.

About UMP Healthcare

Founded in 1990, UMP Healthcare is a medical group listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (stock code 722. HK) and is one of the leading comprehensive healthcare service platforms in the Hong Kong market. They are committed to “providing comprehensive, diversified, and coordinated care for everyone” by creating a network of high-quality and effective medical services for patients, payers, providers, and partners.
 
Along with providing healthcare services that address a wide range of individual needs, UMP closely works with more than 2,000 local and international businesses and insurance organizations to establish and administer corporate healthcare benefit programs for members. The medical service network spans over 1,000 self-owned and affiliated institutions across Hong Kong, Macau, and Mainland China, offering services such as family medicine, specialist consultation, dental care, diagnostic imaging and laboratory testing, preventive medicine and health examination, physical therapy, day surgery, and endoscopy, among others. In 2024, the annual volume of outpatient visits under UMP exceeded 1.3 million.

TCM (570 HK): “Uncertain” To Spook Shares

By David Blennerhassett

  • China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (TCM) will fall today. Perhaps a lot.
  • With two days left on the clock to secure the pre-conditions (18th October), the Offeror said “it remains uncertain” whether it can secure an extension from the investor group.
  • Such wording could be viewed as boilerplate SFC legalise. I would argue the use of “uncertain” is superfluous, unhelpful, and for investors, downright worrying. 

CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly (600535.CH) Update – This Is Already a Done Deal

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Since Tasly’s performance growth has long stagnated and Yan Kaijing has no better way to turn the situation around, selling Tasly to SOE and cashing out becomes a good choice.
  • Upon completion of all approvals (e.g. the SASAC, SAMR, shareholders’ meeting of CR Sanjiu, etc.), the deal aims to be completed in 25Q1. We think the deal will get up.
  • Tasly’s share price should be at least higher than RMB14.85/share based on the cash transfer price. Its P/E would reach 30 in the future after the integration with CR Sanjiu.

BenQ BM Pre-IPO – Core Operations Are Steady but Has Been Losing Market Share

By Nicholas Tan

  • BenQ BM Holding Cayman Corp. (BBHC HK) is looking to raise at least $US100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • It is a leading private for-profit general hospital group in mainland China, operating two general hospitals – Nanjing BenQ Hospital and Suzhou BenQ Hospital.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Dr Wu Skincare (6523) – Thursday, Jul 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dr. Wu Skincare is a leading skincare brand from developed Asia known for its skin vitamins and strong financial performance
  • Despite not being cheap from a tangible NAV perspective, the brand is considered undervalued with high margins, ROE, and cash returns to shareholders
  • Dr. Wu, structured as a pure marketing company with no manufacturing, has top market share in key sales channels in Taiwan and continues to grow and maintain a 5% dividend yield

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) Valuation Update – Are We There Yet?

By Avien Pillay

  • At a 51 NPE, Daiichi Sankyo was priced for perfection.
  • We do like their focus on the high growth oncology segment, however, we felt that the valuation left no room for error.
  • Post the two disappointing trial announcements, at a 39 NPE, the valuation is become more palatable and getting closer to our mid-thirties target entry point.

Masimo Corporation: Expansion into Consumer Health Products & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Masimo Corporation’s second quarter of 2024 earnings conference call came with updates that carry implications of both strength and ongoing challenges.
  • The company, primarily known for its healthcare technologies, showed a robust performance in its healthcare segment, with a noticeable 23% year-on-year growth in healthcare revenues, totaling $344 million for the quarter.
  • This growth is supported by a 29% increase in consumables and service revenue, reflecting strong demand for Masimo sensors, driven by hospital conversions and normalization of installations.

GENOVA (9341 JP): 70% Rally Over the Last Two Months; Here’s Why Outperformance to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • GENOVA (9341 JP) recorded better-than-expected sales and operating profit in Q1FY25, driven by continued strong demand. With the progress achieved in Q1FY25, the company is expected to beat H1FY25 guidance.
  • Medical Platform business has been experiencing steady growth in both the number of articles and page views, leading to creation of multiple contracts and improve the platform’s unit contract price.  
  • The company had 14K customers for the Medical Platform Business and the Smart Clinic Business in Q1FY25, a mere 8% of its estimated potential customer base of 173K clinics.

Exelixis Inc.: Expansion Of Cabometyx

By Baptista Research

  • Exelixis, Inc. presented its second-quarter 2024 financial results, revealing a period of strong performance and strategic advancements in its portfolio.
  • The company highlighted significant growth in both its top and bottom lines, primarily driven by the success of the cabozantinib franchise, demonstrating a robust market presence, especially in renal cell carcinoma (RCC).
  • Globally, net product revenues from the cabozantinib franchise, along with revenues from partnerships, showed significant increases, totaling $618 million for the quarter.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: ASML Holding NV, JD Industrial Technology , Horizon Robotics, King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd., Dell Technologies , Dave , Serverworks, Toumei , Acal PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook
  • ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company’s Miscalculations
  • JD Industrials Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Few Hits, Few Misses
  • Horizon Robotics IPO – Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t
  • KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Oct-2024): Hyundai races to catch up in global AV competition.
  • Dave Inc (DAVE) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024
  • Serverworks (4434 JP): 1H FY02/25 flash update
  • Toumei (4439 JP): Full-year FY08/24 flash update
  • discoverIE Group – Orders stabilising, EPS & margin targets on track


ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

By William Keating

  • ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
  • Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
  • Despite these challenges, ASML’s latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company’s Miscalculations

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.
  • Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.
  • ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.

JD Industrials Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Few Hits, Few Misses

By Sumeet Singh

  • JD Industrial Technology is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
  • We have looked at the company background and provided our initial thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the refiling updates.

Horizon Robotics IPO – Peers Are Down a Lot, Its Valuation Isn’t

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics is looking to raise up to US$696m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

By Patrick Liao


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-Oct-2024): Hyundai races to catch up in global AV competition.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Hyundai is competing against the US and China in the global autonomous vehicle market, trying to keep up with the latest technological developments.
  • Tesla’s new Robotaxi and self-driving bus have been unveiled, but doubts linger about whether they will be commercially successful in the long run.
  • TsangYow is planning for growth as Asian markets recover, with a Malaysian plant set to launch in 2027. HK startups are utilizing AI for growth in education and tourism sectors.

Dave Inc (DAVE) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Dave offers financial products to financially challenged Americans, including early wage access loans and digital checking accounts
  • Dave faces regulatory challenges in the fintech industry but is still considered a good long-term investment
  • The collapse of Synapse and regulatory scrutiny on banking partners like Evolve have raised concerns about the fast growth of fintech companies without proper supervision, highlighted in articles from WSJ and Bloomberg

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Serverworks (4434 JP): 1H FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Serverworks reported revenue of JPY17.3bn (+38.6% YoY) and operating profit of JPY603mn (+49.6% YoY).
  • Resale services revenue reached JPY15.4bn (+40.7% YoY), driven by increased AWS usage and new customer acquisition.
  • Cloud Integration revenue was JPY1.1bn (+30.2% YoY), with 280 projects and 136 customers by end-Q2.

Toumei (4439 JP): Full-year FY08/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Toumei’s FY08/24 revenue reached JPY23.9bn (+16.5% YoY), with operating profit at JPY2.3bn (+40.3% YoY), achieving record highs.
  • For FY08/25, Toumei forecasts revenue of JPY30.0bn (+25.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY2.9bn (+24.0% YoY).
  • Toumei’s NEXT GROWTH 2027 plan targets FY08/27 revenue of JPY40.2bn and operating profit of JPY4.6bn.

discoverIE Group – Orders stabilising, EPS & margin targets on track

By Edison Investment Research

discoverIE’s H125 trading update confirmed that underlying earnings expectations for FY25 are unchanged. Destocking by industrial customers reduced in H125, with some now starting to place orders, resulting in a stabilisation in group order intake. Design wins in H125 with an estimated lifetime value (ELV) of £205m provide a strong foundation for future growth once destocking is complete. We maintain our FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts despite reducing our revenue forecasts to reflect FX headwinds and lower organic growth in H125, reflecting continued good cost control and reducing interest rates.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Inox Wind Ltd, Hyundai Rotem Company, COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore), Cintas Corp, SharkNinja , SIG PLC, UFP Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Clean Energy & Global Water ETFs: Changes for Asia & Impact
  • Korea: Stocks with Potential Passive Flows in November
  • kopi-C with COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore)’s Chairman and President: ‘Success comes to those who are prepared’
  • Cintas Corp (CTAS) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024
  • Shark Ninja (SN US) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024
  • SIG Plc – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • UFP Industries Inc.: Dealing With The Risks Of Supply Chain Volatility & Market Adaptation!


Clean Energy & Global Water ETFs: Changes for Asia & Impact

By Brian Freitas


Korea: Stocks with Potential Passive Flows in November

By Brian Freitas


kopi-C with COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore)’s Chairman and President: ‘Success comes to those who are prepared’

By Geoff Howie

  • Integrated logistics company COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore) is combining acquisitions and other investments with a focus on digitalisation and sustainability to grow.
  • Since 2018, the company has invested significantly, including acquiring logistics company Cogent Holdings, to shift its main business from ship building, ship repairing and marine engineering to integrated logistics.
  • COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore) Co., Ltd. aims to become the best integrated logistics service provider in South and Southeast Asia.

Cintas Corp (CTAS) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • CTAS initially benefited from peak demand due to post-Covid conditions, leading to significant pricing power
  • However, the company is now facing challenges as demand decreases and competition increases, impacting its market share
  • CTAS’s aggressive approach has led to stealing market share from competitors like VSTS, highlighting the importance of adapting to changing market conditions in business.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Shark Ninja (SN US) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • SN US is a profitable company spun off from JS Global, driving profits for its parent company
  • The company focuses on the US market and has seen impressive growth at a 25% CAGR over the past five years
  • SN US business is divided into Shark and Ninja segments, offering a variety of products and focusing on growing market share and innovation.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


SIG Plc – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess SIG plc’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


UFP Industries Inc.: Dealing With The Risks Of Supply Chain Volatility & Market Adaptation!

By Baptista Research

  • UFP Industries Inc. reported mixed results for the second quarter of 2024, with performance reflecting varied impacts across its segments due to shifting market conditions and strategic changes.
  • While the company is well positioned with significant capital for future investments, it faces challenges that are affecting its performance and strategic outlook.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Berry Global Group, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust, West Fraser Timber, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, ICL Group , Alkane Resources, Kinross Gold Corp, Sonoco Products Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Rubber Board Says Q1 FY25 Production Near Stable But ATMA Disputes
  • Berry Global Group Inc (BERY) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024
  • Bp Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024
  • West Fraser Timber Co.: These Are The 4 Biggest Challenges That Make Us Pessimistic!
  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources: Dealing With Supply Chain Vulnerability. Fluctuating Market Demand & Pricing Instability! – Major Drivers
  • ICL Group Ltd: An Insight Into Its Financial Performance and Shareholder Value Proposition! – Major Drivers
  • Alkane Resources – Seamlessly shifting to Roswell
  • Kinross Gold Corporation: An Insight Into Its Competitive Positioning! – Major Drivers
  • Sonoco Products Company: An Analysis Of Its Strategy & Enhanced Productivity Initiatives! – Major Drivers


Rubber Board Says Q1 FY25 Production Near Stable But ATMA Disputes

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Consumption declines by .3% to 356,000 tons in Q1 FY 25
  • ATMA says April-Sept 2024 production 37% lower year on year
  • ATMA asks Rubber Board to expedite data publishing

Berry Global Group Inc (BERY) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • BERRY (BERY) has had a challenging start to the year but recent market trends have created an interesting investment opportunity for the company.
  • BERY had been in a strategic review process for its HH&S business, with expectations for a sale to improve their balance sheet, but instead announced a spin off with Glatfelter Corporation (GLT), causing a drop in stock price.
  • The stock is now in a state of “DEAL PURGATORY” until the transaction is completed, leading to a selloff in the stock price and possible undervaluation for investors to consider.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Bp Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) – Wednesday, Jul 17, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Investment opportunity in BPT, a grantor trust with royalty interest in Prudhoe Bay
  • Cash flow offset against increasing costs, risky but potentially lucrative
  • Factors affecting profitability include production levels, WTI prices, costs, and taxes; predicted decrease in value over next 12 months

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


West Fraser Timber Co.: These Are The 4 Biggest Challenges That Make Us Pessimistic!

By Baptista Research

  • West Fraser’s Q2 2024 results present a nuanced profile, shaped by diverse business segments and market dynamics.
  • The financial highlights and strategic movements of the company were thoroughly discussed during the earnings call hosted by Sean McLaren, President and CEO, alongside Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Chris Virostek and other senior executives.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources: Dealing With Supply Chain Vulnerability. Fluctuating Market Demand & Pricing Instability! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2024, delivering a performance that reflects both the resilience and challenges faced by the metallurgical coal industry.
  • The company announced an adjusted EBITDA of $116 million and total shipments of 4.6 million tons during the quarter.
  • Despite a decrease in adjusted EBITDA from $190 million in the previous quarter, the figures indicate strategic navigation through prevailing tough market conditions, characterized by weakened steel demand and subsequent impact on metallurgical coal markets.

ICL Group Ltd: An Insight Into Its Financial Performance and Shareholder Value Proposition! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ICL Group Ltd’s second quarter financial performance showcased both strength and areas of concern amid challenging external factors such as geopolitical tensions and evolving market dynamics.
  • Let’s delve into the specifics of the recent financial outcomes and the implications for businesses and investors alike.
  • Financial performance highlights included a notable uptick in sales which were recorded at $1,752 million, a consecutive increase for the second quarter.

Alkane Resources – Seamlessly shifting to Roswell

By Edison Investment Research

On 14 October, Alkane released its Q125 quarterly activities report, showing almost all of its operating parameters in line with both guidance and our expectations for the full year. The exceptions were its head grade, which exceeded the upper end of the guidance range by 6.1%, and AISC, which improved upon the lower end of the guidance range by 9.1%. Most significant however was confirmation that AISC guidance reflects a one-off cost for decline development that is accounted as sustaining capital (rather than as an operating expense) and as a result we have increased our earnings estimates for FY25 by A$21.2m, or 85.8x (8,479%).


Kinross Gold Corporation: An Insight Into Its Competitive Positioning! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kinross Gold Corporation expressed a strong performance in the second quarter of 2024, which boosted the company’s financial and operational outlook.
  • The company reported a substantial 20% growth in operating margins compared to the previous quarter, largely driven by optimal functioning at its major mines, notably Tasiast and Paracatu.
  • The increase in gold prices positively impacted the profitability, enhancing free cash flow to $346 million for the quarter.

Sonoco Products Company: An Analysis Of Its Strategy & Enhanced Productivity Initiatives! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sonoco Products Company’s second quarter earnings call presented a mixed picture of the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.
  • For the second quarter, Sonoco reported sales of $1.6 billion, reflecting a decrease from previous periods.
  • The adjusted EBITDA stood at $262 million, with EBITDA margins maintaining strength at 16%.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Mazda Motor, Seven & I Holdings, WA Inc, BYD, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Volkswagen (Pref), Genting Bhd, Onward Holdings, Taste Gourmet, IDOM Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November
  • 7&I Holdings (3382 JP) – Artisan Writes Another Letter – Based on Content, They Should Sell Any Pop
  • Wa Inc (7683 JP) – Equity Offering, and TOPIX Inclusion But Very Lopsided Register
  • BYD (1211 HK) Quick Note: Company and Industry Sales Up by 46% YoY and 51% YoY
  • Fair for Managers Who Are Protected by Cross-Shareholding and Get Inflated Payout Due to Weak Yen?
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘24 Report
  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Anton Oilfield
  • Onward Goes Young with Wego
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – October 2024
  • IDOM Inc (7599 JP): 1H FY02/25 flash update


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in November

By Brian Freitas

  • Up to 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in November. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.
  • The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names.

7&I Holdings (3382 JP) – Artisan Writes Another Letter – Based on Content, They Should Sell Any Pop

By Travis Lundy

  • Some two weeks after it became apparent Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) had lobbied a bid in for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Artisan Partners wrote a letter.  
  • It was full of misguided analysis, ungrounded insinuation of a general nature without specifying where they would have a problem. It seemed to be complaint for the sake of complaint.
  • Today another public letter. This time there are a couple of worthwhile suggestions, some accusations of fiduciary impropriety based on no evidence, and an implicit admission they should have sold?

Wa Inc (7683 JP) – Equity Offering, and TOPIX Inclusion But Very Lopsided Register

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday WA Inc (7683 JP) announced that on the five year anniversary of its listing in 2019, the stock would move to TSE Prime on 1 November 2024
  • They also announced a secondary offering of 2.86mm shares including greenshoe. That’s 15% of shares out but the offering will double total float. This is almost a re-IPO.
  • This will lead to a TOPIX inclusion on 27 December which will be smaller than the offering. This will be all retail. 

BYD (1211 HK) Quick Note: Company and Industry Sales Up by 46% YoY and 51% YoY

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s deliveries growth accelerated to 36% YoY in Aug and 46% YoY Sep.
  • The whole domestic NEV (New Energy vehicle) market has been accelerating for for the entire third quarter.
  • We believe the EU and the US market are not concerns, as both domestic and other emerging markets are promising.

Fair for Managers Who Are Protected by Cross-Shareholding and Get Inflated Payout Due to Weak Yen?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s understandable that compensation is paid for managing a global business and achieving significant growth, but it’s also paid for bloated performance in yen terms due to the weak yen.
  • Employee engagement is very important for value-added products and more money should be spent on human capital. Otherwise, higher profit margins are unlikely to be achieved.
  • The election of directors at AGMs rarely results in rejection of the company’s proposal. Cross-shareholdings should be reduced so that managers whose “employment” is protected by cross-shareholdings don’t receive commensurate compensation.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘24 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-September, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe, Volkswagen.
  • Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Anton Oilfield

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Onward Goes Young with Wego

By Michael Causton

  • Most of Onward’s current customers are in their 40s and older but the purchase of casual clothing retailer, Wego, increases its exposure to people in their teens and 20s. 
  • It will accelerate development of new omnichannel brands to match as part of plans to grow sales by 50% in the next six years and more than double operating profits.
  • Onward itself has been transformed by a switch to omnichannel and after years of slashing stores and sales now looks set to become a growth business again.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – October 2024

By Sameer Taneja


IDOM Inc (7599 JP): 1H FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In 1H FY02/25, sales rose JPY46.0bn (22.6%) YoY, driven by large store operations and retail unit sales.
  • Operating profit increased JPY3.0bn (42.1%) YoY, with gross profit per retail unit rising to JPY440,000 (+60,000 YoY).
  • Revised FY02/25 forecast projects sales of JPY500.0bn (+19.1% YoY), operating profit of JPY20.3bn (+26.0% YoY).

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Daily Brief Financials: Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H), AUB Group Limited, Bitcoin, FP Partner, Moon River Capital and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • GJS/Haitong Merger Musings
  • AUB Group Placement – Well Flagged Selldown Will Clear the Overhang
  • Digital Asset Landscape Primer: Part 1
  • FP Partner (7388 JP): Q3 FY11/24 flash update
  • MOO: Metallurgical Analysis Supports By-Product Metals


GJS/Haitong Merger Musings

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in March, the CSRC said it aimed to “form two to three investment banks and institutions with international competitiveness and market leadership by 2035″.
  • Last week’s announced merger between China’s leading state-backed brokerages, Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong (6837 HK), is a move in that direction. Expect more scrip mergers to follow. 
  • There have also been some media reports that the GJS/Haitong terms disadvantage holders of other Hong Kong broker stocks if potentially acquired in a merger. It’s not quite that simple. 

AUB Group Placement – Well Flagged Selldown Will Clear the Overhang

By Clarence Chu

  • Odyssey is looking to raise A$277m (US$186m) from selling its entire stake in AUB Group Limited (AUB AU).
  • The PE has been invested since May 2022 with its stake subjected to a two-year escrow period. There have been media reports surrounding the selldown over the past few months.
  • In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Digital Asset Landscape Primer: Part 1

By Christopher Rosa

  • Blockchain Basics: Blockchain is a decentralized ledger recording transactions without a central authority. Participants validate and store immutable, transparent data, ensuring trust and security throughout the network.
  • Blockchain Layers: The blockchain ecosystem consists of Layer 1 (core blockchain), Layer 2 (scaling solutions), and Layer 3 (applications), all working together to enable secure, scalable interactions with blockchain technology.
  • Key Concepts: Blockchain principles include immutability (data cannot be changed), permissionless participation (open to anyone), and decentralization (no single entity controls the system), ensuring security, transparency, and trust across networks.

FP Partner (7388 JP): Q3 FY11/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for cumulative Q3 FY11/24 reached JPY27.0bn, a 17.7% YoY increase, achieving 75.7% of the full-year forecast.
  • Operating profit decreased by 3.1% YoY to JPY4.4bn, with a shift towards foreign currency-denominated products impacting margins.
  • Full-year forecasts for operating profit, recurring profit, and net income were revised downward due to sales mix changes.

MOO: Metallurgical Analysis Supports By-Product Metals

By Atrium Research

  • Moon River announced the initial results from analysis on the by-product metals in the Davidson deposit (tungsten, copper, REEs and gallium).
  • The results showed high potential recovery for tungsten and possibly copper, giving us confidence in the upcoming metallurgical results.
  • This is the first step in MOO’s goal of including these by-product metals in the mine plan, potentially improving the economics in the PEA.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Posco, Shinhan Group
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Citic Sec, Hkex, Trip.Com, ICBC, CCB, New World Dev


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Posco, Shinhan Group

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Oct 11th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD4.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Posco, Shinhan Group.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Citic Sec, Hkex, Trip.Com, ICBC, CCB, New World Dev

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 4th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Meituan, Citic Sec, Hkex, Trip.Com, ICBC, CCB, New World Dev.

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Daily Brief ESG: Keppel: Study on Disclosure (Report 1) and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Keppel: Study on Disclosure (Report 1)


Keppel: Study on Disclosure (Report 1)

By Tan Yee Peng

  • Keppel Ltd, once renowned for its offshore marine and real estate businesses, is undertaking a fundamental transformation to become a global asset manager with S$200bn in funds under management (FUM) by 2030.
  • It is unprecedented for an industrial operator to successfully transform into an asset manager of such scale.
  • As such, close attention ought to be given to the progress and prospects of Keppel’s transformation. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed?
  • Ohayo Japan | Oil & Tech Sell Off
  • Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/ATAT US/002352 CH/2618HK/ZTO US/Macro
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK
  • # 64 India Insights: JSW ReNew Solar Agreement with NTPC, KSK Mahanadi Insolvency, Zomato Xtreme
  • Australia – Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data


Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) plans India’s largest IPO, valued at Rs. 27,870 crore.
  • Historical data shows large IPOs often underperform, raising concerns about valuation and market timing.
  • Caution is essential; analyzing fundamentals over hype is crucial for IPO investments.

Ohayo Japan | Oil & Tech Sell Off

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks retreated Thursday as crude oil prices dropped and technology shares weakened. The S&P 500 slipped 0.8%.
  • ASML revised its 2025 sales forecast downward, citing sustained semiconductor market weakness outside of AI-related chips
  • Nvidia shares fell 4.5% after reports that the Biden administration might restrict U.S. chip exports to Persian Gulf countries for national security.

Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

By Andrew Jackson

  • Japan SPE set for a big pullback after a terrible ASML order outlook.
  • EUV related plays will be under pressure including Lasertec and Hoya.
  • Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, with rails in focus after Tokyo Metro IPO priced top of range.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/ATAT US/002352 CH/2618HK/ZTO US/Macro

By Eric Wen

  • Macro News Update: Weak Household Loan Data in September Highlights Urgency for Consumption Stimulus
  • Macro News Update : Scholars within China’s government system indicates more incremental stimulus policies are on the way.
  • Macro News Update : Positive read thru on the Ministry of Finance press release(+)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK

By Ying Pan

  • BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US: Tmall shares recent growth figures and Double 11 initiatives (+/-/-/-)
  • BABA US/PDD US/SHEIN/4385 JP/4689 JP: AliExpress and Cainiao expand 5-day delivery to three additional countries including Japan (+/-/-)
  • BABA US/JD US/PDD US: Alibaba launches upgraded AI-based store management tool (+/-/-)

# 64 India Insights: JSW ReNew Solar Agreement with NTPC, KSK Mahanadi Insolvency, Zomato Xtreme

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • JSW Renew Energy Signs 700 MW Solar Agreement with NTPC
  • SC Revives Adani’s INR 27,000 Crore Insolvency Resolution for KSK Mahanadi
  • Zomato Xtreme Relaunches with Renewed Focus on the Food Delivery

Australia – Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Monthly data for job vacancies in Australia continues to weaken sequentially
  • Australian HFD on bankruptcies and insolvencies has been weak for some time
  • Risk is that credit metrics of Australian banks remain poor, continuing what we see for many at present

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Daily Brief ECM: China Resources Beverage IPO – Volatility Makes Pricing a Bit Tricky and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beverage IPO – Volatility Makes Pricing a Bit Tricky
  • CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • CR Beverage IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Strong Profitability Growth, IPO Valuation Is Cheap
  • Rigaku IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • Rubicon Research Pre-IPO – Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth
  • Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • NTPC Green Pre-IPO – The Positives – Backed by India’s Largest Power Company


China Resources Beverage IPO – Volatility Makes Pricing a Bit Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)  is looking to raise up to US$650m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


CR Beverage IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Strong Profitability Growth, IPO Valuation Is Cheap

By Andrei Zakharov

  • CR Beverage, a pioneer in China’s packaged drinking water industry with a forty years history, sets terms for upcoming IPO in Hong Kong.
  • The IPO is expected to be between HK$13.50 and HK$14.50. At the midpoint of the range, CR Beverage would command a market value of ~HK$33B or ~$4.2B.
  • I view IPO valuation as attractive vs. domestic peers as profitability and gross profit margins improved. UBS, BOCI, CITIC Securities and Bank of America are leading the offering.

Rigaku IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) has opened its books for the IPO, and the IPO will raise $753m purely through the sale of shares by the existing shareholders.
  • Unlike its competitors, Rigaku has a very specialized product portfolio that is entirely focused on X-ray technology which makes the company unique among its competitors. 
  • Our analysis reveals that Rigaku’s IPO is attractively priced compared to its competitors and there is more than 15-20% upside to the indicative IPO price range.

Rubicon Research Pre-IPO – Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth

By Akshat Shah

  • Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.
  • It is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Vikran Engineering Limited (1635154D IN) is planning to raise about US$119m through its upcoming IPO in India. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Pantomath Limited, Systematix Group.
  • Vikran Engineering Limited (VEL) based in Mumbai, operates as an Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) firm, focusing on power, water, and railway infrastructure projects. 
  • VEL plans to allocate its funds towards financing the company’s working capital needs and general corporate purposes.

NTPC Green Pre-IPO – The Positives – Backed by India’s Largest Power Company

By Clarence Chu

  • NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) is a renewable energy public sector enterprise and a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Limited, a Maharatna central public sector enterprise (PSU). 
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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