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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation, Commerzbank AG, New World Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Metropolitan Fund Placement – Relatively Small Deal to Digest
  • Unicredit Is Moving Fast
  • Morning Views Asia: New World Development


Japan Metropolitan Fund Placement – Relatively Small Deal to Digest

By Sumeet Singh

  • Japan Metropolitan Fund Investment Corporation (8953 JP) aims to raise around US$140m to partly fund the acquisition of four assets.
  • The deal will be relatively small, in terms of ADV and dilution.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Unicredit Is Moving Fast

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • UniCredit SpA (UCG IM) has raised its Commerzbank AG (CBK GR) stake to 21%; Chancellor Scholz called it “hostile takeover”. UniCredit also filed to increase its stake up to 29.9%.
  • Commerzbank’s valuation multiples remain attractive, as despite a 21.3% rise in its stock, it still trades at a price-to-book ratio (P/B) of just 0.57x, compared to UniCredit’s 0.98x.
  • The conditions remain favorable for a potential premium acquisition by UniCredit, as acquiring Commerzbank makes both strategic and financial sense. Thus I recommend to buy Commerzbank speculatively.

Morning Views Asia: New World Development

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Capitol Health, Rigaku Holdings, Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals, Varex Imaging Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Capitol Health (CAJ AU)/Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU):  31st Oct Merger Vote
  • Rigaku IPO – The Positives – Catering to a Range of End Industries, and Track Record Has Been Strong
  • Rigaku Holdings IPO: Initial Thoughts
  • Clinuvel: A Big Future in Skin Disease Treatment
  • Varex Imaging Corp (VREX US): No Near-Term Respite Visible From China Headwinds


Capitol Health (CAJ AU)/Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU):  31st Oct Merger Vote

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18th July, diagnostic imaging provider Capitol Health (CAJ AU) entered a Scheme with Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU). IDX will issue 0.12849 new IDX shares for each Capitol share
  • Upon completing the transaction, Integral would hold ~63% in the MergeCo. They key risk is the ACCC signing off. A decision is expected on (or around) the 28th November.  
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 31st October. Expected implementation on the 14th November. The IE says fair & reasonable.

Rigaku IPO – The Positives – Catering to a Range of End Industries, and Track Record Has Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is looking to raise US$762m in its Japan IPO.
  • Rigaku engages in developing, manufacturing, sales and servicing scientific instruments specializing in X-ray technologies. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Rigaku Holdings IPO: Initial Thoughts

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) provides cutting-edge analytical solutions centered on X-ray technology globally. The company is one of the largest players globally in X-ray diffraction instrument market.
  • The company has filed for an IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and plans to raise proceeds of around US$900m from the IPO at a potential valuation of US$2bn.
  • In this insight, we discuss Rigaku’s business model, key drivers, financials and outlook for the company.

Clinuvel: A Big Future in Skin Disease Treatment

By Pyari Menon

  • Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CUV AU)’s Scenesse is the only approved erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) treatment. Patent protection and orphan drug status solidifies Clinuvel’s market position.
  • Clinuvel is expanding Scenesse’s (afamelanotide) use and developing and testing additional products for clinical and photo-cosmetic use. 
  • Profitability metrics and growth are solid and cash position strong to support R&D for trials and new product development.

Varex Imaging Corp (VREX US): No Near-Term Respite Visible From China Headwinds

By Tina Banerjee

  • Varex Imaging Corp (VREX US) reported 10% YoY drop in revenue and a squeeze in profits as well in Q3FY24, driven by weakness in Medical segment business.
  • China market softness continues to drag the operating performance of the company. The woes faced in China does not appear to subside quickly in the near foreseeable future.
  • The company has guided for Q4FY24 sales and EPS in the range of $190-210M and $0.00-0.15, respectively, representing significant drop from year-ago quarter.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tohokushinsha Film, Taste Gourmet, DFI Retail Group Holdings, ASICS Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Rakuten, Lands’ End Inc, Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tohokushinsha (2329 JP) To 3D – “Not Today”; 3D May Go To The Mattresses
  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): H1 FY25 Earnings Preview, 4.5x PE with 12% Yield
  • DFI Exits Yonghui, MINISO Enters: Who Got The Short End Of The Stick?
  • Asics (7936) | Q3 Preview; Revision of MTP
  • Has the “Unit of Investment” Principle Spoiled the Companies?
  • Rakuten Mart Launching This Month
  • LE: European Tour: Creating a New Vision; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT
  • Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings – The Perfume Business in China May Not Be as Good as Expected


Tohokushinsha (2329 JP) To 3D – “Not Today”; 3D May Go To The Mattresses

By Travis Lundy

  • 3D Investment Partners bought 5% of Tohokushinsha Film (2329 JP) by Mar-2023. A year later they had 17+%. 3D proposed changes. In July, 3D proposed a takeover, asking for DD. 
  • Tohokushinsha responded to the proposals, then offered due diligence to 3D based on terms set by a Special Committee. 3D did not want those strict DD terms. 
  • Yesterday, Tohokushinsha said “Fine.” The stock today fell 10% today. This is not a stalemate, but it means 3D may start to play harder.

Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): H1 FY25 Earnings Preview, 4.5x PE with 12% Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) will report its H1 FY25 earnings in early November. The company isn’t reporting quarterly earnings because GEM board stocks are no longer required to do so. 
  • We expect revenue and profit growth of 22% %/20% YoY, as the average number of HK restaurants has increased from 45 to 54, and most have ramped up. 
  • Trading at 4.5x PE with a 12% dividend yield, 27% of the market cap in cash and a mainboard listing on the horizon there abundant catalysts for the future. 

DFI Exits Yonghui, MINISO Enters: Who Got The Short End Of The Stick?

By David Blennerhassett


Asics (7936) | Q3 Preview; Revision of MTP

By Mark Chadwick

  • Asics is seeing robust D2C sales growth, now 40% of total sales, driving gross margins to 55.5% (+4.5 pp YoY) in 1H24.
  • High-Margin models and strong sales in Onitsuka Tiger and Sportsstyle categories support a forecasted 13% YoY sales increase in 2H24.
  • Asics’ strategic transformation, focusing on structural reforms and emerging markets, to drive upgraded MTP though FY26.

Has the “Unit of Investment” Principle Spoiled the Companies?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The reason companies object to a reduction in the investment unit is the cost of shareholder relations, not the cost paid to the trust bank.
  • We should discuss whether it is better for the “unit of investment” principle to remain in place for the convenience of companies that want to pass company proposals smoothly.
  • It will be interesting to see if there will be a discussion on going back to basics and allowing single share holders to exercise their voting rights.

Rakuten Mart Launching This Month

By Michael Causton

  • Rakuten still gets a lot of flak for its mobile business but its core e-commerce operation continues to improve.
  • Rakuten will launch Rakuten Mart this month,  an online supermarket but with Rakuten Ichiba vendors too.
  • Online food retailing is becoming a major source of competition with Amazon, Aeon and Seven & I all investing heavily but Rakuten is holding its own.

LE: European Tour: Creating a New Vision; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $20 price target for Lands’ End after visiting the company’s European headquarters in Oakham, United Kingdom and meeting with management.
  • We believe, with operations overwhelmingly focused on the United Kingdom and German consumer, there remains multiple growth opportunities, from new categories, expansion into Europe-only looks, lower discounting and continuing to upgrade the customer mix to more lifestyle and features, rather than pricing, driven.
  • Further, with Europe taking the lead in terms of quicker buys and reacting/setting fashion trends, they will increasingly have a roll in setting the product pace for the United States operations.

Pre-IPO Eternal Beauty Holdings – The Perfume Business in China May Not Be as Good as Expected

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The essence of Eternal Beauty’s business model is to earn a “price difference” of the brand and product portfolios, but this business model is difficult to generate high profit margins.
  • The situation and prospects of China’s perfume market are facing major changes. It‘s uncertain whether the perfume sales in the China market can maintain double-digit growth in the long term.
  • Eternal Beauty’s financial performance would face challenges due to changes in consumer preferences, shifts in China’s domestic policies, international trade disputes, geopolitical conflicts, etc. Valuation could be lower than peers.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 20th): Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 20th): Samsung Electronics, KB Financial, Shinhan Group, Posco


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 20th): Samsung Electronics, KB Financial, Shinhan Group, Posco

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Sep 20th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, KB Financial, Shinhan Group, Posco.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners


SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).
  • 2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)
  • SPX is “breaking out” which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Market Ignores Slump in Consumer Confidence and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Market Ignores Slump in Consumer Confidence
  • Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets
  • China & HK Strategy: Time for The “Dogs” To Revenge?
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)


Ohayo Japan | Market Ignores Slump in Consumer Confidence

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.25% to a record 5,733 on Tuesday, buoyed by a nearly 4% jump in Nvidia shares
  • U.S. Consumer confidence dropped sharply in September to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, marking the largest decline since August 2021
  • Activist investor, City Index Elevens, has taken a 5.08% stake in Aichi Steel, a Toyota affiliate

Japan Morning Connection: Improved Sentiment in China Puts the Focus on Squeeze Targets

By Andrew Jackson

  • China names will be in focus with yesterdays gains holding overnight in the US.
  • Worth looking at Japanese names previously bucketed as China plays which could now be squeeze targets with large short interests.
  • The list is long, but some names which could squeeze on the improved sentiment include Shiseido, Daikin, TOTO, Yamaha Corp and Nabtesco.

China & HK Strategy: Time for The “Dogs” To Revenge?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While the worst-performing stocks in 2023 have gone down by an average of 17.6% YTD, their pick-up in the last month is significant at 19.9%. 
  • The cut in US interest rate and the Chinese government’s stimulus measures will benefit the HSI, providing room for shifting position from heavily overweighted names to underweighted.
  • Li Ning (2331 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) are the key “dogs” in last year that are worth a look. 

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up 2.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.4%).
  • Energy Technology (13.5% of the index) was up 0.7%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.4% of the index) was up 2.2%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.0% of index) was up 3.6%.
  • Top 10 Performers: REE, NGPHF, LICY, SUNW, MVST, FTCI, ENG, GCEH, ORGN, IPWR

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC:  Caution as GEM Funds Switch to Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC:  Caution as GEM Funds Switch to Underweight
  • The Beat Ideas: Deepak Fertilizers – Specialty Chemical, Capex, Debottlenecking!
  • Choice Equities’ Mitchell Scott provides update on $CROX thesis and thoughts on Magnite $MGNI
  • Is Enfusion About to Be Snapped Up? Here’s Why Acquirers Could Be Lining Up!
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Sep-2024): Lenovo invests US$1 billion in AI over 3 years.
  • Green Cross (006280 KS): Alyglo Is Accelerating U.S. Market Entry; Base Business Shows Strength
  • Boku – H124 revenue growth supports FY24 outlook
  • Ainos, Inc. – Veldona Sjogren’s Study Start to Quickly Follow Oral Warts
  • GES: Snapping the Store – London – Fall Elevation Rising; Reiterate Buy, $29 PT
  • International Public Partnerships – Attractive, lower-risk returns


TSMC:  Caution as GEM Funds Switch to Underweight

By Steven Holden

  • Average EM fund weights and active fund ownership hits record highs in TSMC
  • However, investor caution is starting to surface, with 13.4% of funds shifting to underweight  in the last six months, driving the net underweight to a 15-year low of -1.21%.
  • Net outflows of $3 billion over the past six months, led by Invesco, JP Morgan, and MFS, and with four times more sellers than buyers.

The Beat Ideas: Deepak Fertilizers – Specialty Chemical, Capex, Debottlenecking!

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) commissioned 500KT of ammonia plant that will remove their dependence on import of critical raw material.
  • DFPCL’s TAN capacity stands at 629 KTPA, with plans to increase it to 1,000 KTPA by FY26 through a new facility in Gopalpur, Odisha.
  • Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) is about to complete its restructuring by creating a separate subsidiary for mining chemicals, which in future they may plan to list separately. 

Choice Equities’ Mitchell Scott provides update on $CROX thesis and thoughts on Magnite $MGNI

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Mitchell discusses the success and potential of Crocs, noting its growth and potential for continued success
  • Andrew asks if Crocs is a fad or a sustainable business, with Mitchell emphasizing the brand’s importance and continued innovation
  • Mitchell highlights Crocs’ success during the pandemic and discusses potential growth strategies for the future, including the importance of jibbets.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Is Enfusion About to Be Snapped Up? Here’s Why Acquirers Could Be Lining Up!

By Baptista Research

  • Enfusion reported its second quarter 2024 earnings with results aligning closely with the company’s prior guidance and consistent performance expectations in the medium term.
  • The company posted $49.5 million in revenue, marking a 16% year-over-year growth.
  • The adjusted EBITDA came in at $10.1 million, translating to a 20.5% margin.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (25-Sep-2024): Lenovo invests US$1 billion in AI over 3 years.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Lenovo commits $1B to AI advancements, strengthens F1 collaboration, showcasing innovation in technology sector.
  • Garmin experiences growth in SEA sales for smart wearables, indicating a maturing market and strong consumer demand.
  • Taiwan’s Transcom gains from global surge in military spending, develops world’s first open-source 6G core network, while Stellantis partners Maserati with China’s Chery amidst struggles in German automotive industry.

Green Cross (006280 KS): Alyglo Is Accelerating U.S. Market Entry; Base Business Shows Strength

By Tina Banerjee

  • Green Cross (006280 KS) has gained access to 80% of privately insured members in the U.S. for blood product Alyglo, which has been included in formularies of three major insurers.
  • Green Cross targets to generate $50M revenue from Alyglo this year. The target seems to be conservative. The company further aims to sustain annual growth of 50%+, which is achievable.
  • The company reported sequential improvement in 2Q24, with 17% QoQ revenue growth and significant improvement in gross margin. Revenue growth of 7–8% is expected during 2024–2026.

Boku – H124 revenue growth supports FY24 outlook

By Edison Investment Research

Boku reported 24% y-o-y revenue growth in H124, with both digital wallet/account-to-account (A2A) payments and direct carrier billing (DCB) payments growing at double-digit rates. Adjusted EBITDA grew 18% y-o-y with a margin of 30.1%. With ambitions to become the best localised payment partner for global commerce, Boku continues to invest in enhancing its product portfolio and strengthening its compliance and treasury functions. A pipeline of new digital wallet/A2A launches for major merchants and seasonal factors support continued strong growth in H224 and 2025. With FY24 outlook maintained, our revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts are unchanged.


Ainos, Inc. – Veldona Sjogren’s Study Start to Quickly Follow Oral Warts

By Water Tower Research

  • Taiwan Veldona human study to start in Sjogren’s.
  • Ainos will initiate a Veldona clinical study in Taiwan for primary Sjogren’s syndrome in December 2024.
  • This follows the announcement of an oral warts in HIV+ clinical study planned for November 2024. 

GES: Snapping the Store – London – Fall Elevation Rising; Reiterate Buy, $29 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $29 price target and projections after reviewing Guess?
  • stores in London.
  • As we near the peak Fall season, Guess?

International Public Partnerships – Attractive, lower-risk returns

By Edison Investment Research

International Public Partnerships’ (INPP’s) portfolio continues to deliver consistent and predictable returns for investors, while providing environmental and social benefits for the individuals and communities that are served by its assets. INPP shares offer an attractive yield and the DPS is now in its 17th successive year of growth, with visibility for at least another 20 years. Continuing efforts to narrow the discount to NAV have gained traction, with both realisations and the share repurchase programme stepped up. However, discounts are sector-wide and a greater appreciation of the quality of INPP’s cash flows, a decline in interest rates and the prospects for accretive reinvestment may prove more potent factors in a re-rating.


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Daily Brief ECM: New Fast Entry Rule for KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150: Post-IPO Price Swings Ramping Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • New Fast Entry Rule for KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150: Post-IPO Price Swings Ramping Up
  • Via Technologies GDR Offering – US$212m GDR Offering Will Be Easily Digested
  • K Bank IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Tokyo Metro IPO – The Positives – Quasi-Monopoly Status
  • Upstream Bio IPO Preview: Severe Asthma/CRSwNP Program Advancing


New Fast Entry Rule for KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150: Post-IPO Price Swings Ramping Up

By Sanghyun Park

  • Besides ranking in the top 50 by market cap, it must also meet a minimum float-adjusted cap for K200 fast entry: at least 50% of the 50th-ranked stock’s market cap.
  • Even if new stocks meet KRX’s float cap, their actual float share volume may still be low, risking inflation from local pension funds’ preemptive passive inflows post-listing.
  • This could reduce predictability for KOSPI 200 fast entry, increasing price swings post-listing and forcing traders to develop new volatility strategies after IPOs.

Via Technologies GDR Offering – US$212m GDR Offering Will Be Easily Digested

By Clarence Chu

  • Via Technologies (2388 TT) is looking to raise US$212m in its global depository receipts (GDRs) offering. Proceeds will be used to purchase overseas raw materials, and to replenish working capital.
  • Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal has had a long drawn out approval process. Thus, the deal is a very well flagged one.
  • The deal is a relatively small one to digest at 5.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV.

K Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • K Bank (279570 KS) is a Korean internet bank. It has launched an IPO to raise up to US$734 million.
  • We previously discussed the IPO in K Bank IPO: The Bear Case and K Bank IPO: The Bull Case.
  • We examine the syndicate’s valuation methodology. Our analysis suggests that K Bank is unattractively valued in the IPO price range. We would pass on the IPO.

Tokyo Metro IPO – The Positives – Quasi-Monopoly Status

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)‘s  shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its upcoming Japan IPO. 
  • Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Upstream Bio IPO Preview: Severe Asthma/CRSwNP Program Advancing

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Upstream Bio, a clinical-stage biotech company developing novel therapies for inflammatory and allergic diseases, filed for an IPO in the United States.
  • The biotech firm was backed by premier investors, including OrbiMed, Access Industries, Maruho Co., Samsara BioCapital, Omega Funds, and Enavate Sciences, among others.
  • I believe that company’s lead compound, verekitug (UPB-101), has a broader commercial opportunity than many investors appreciate.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd, Yankuang Energy Group
  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan


Morning Views Asia: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: Meituan

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: All the Scoop on the Korea Value-Up Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • All the Scoop on the Korea Value-Up Index
  • Korea Exchange Announces The Korea Value Up Index
  • China’s [Maybe] Biggish [Quasi?] Bazooka
  • Tech: Japan’s Biggest IPO in 6 Years, Kioxia, Is Off. Here Is the Likely Reason
  • Xingda (1899 HK): No Premium Voluntary Conditional Offer to Ward off a Hostile Holder
  • Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Circular Now Out. IFA Says Fair
  • Capitol Health (CAJ AU): ACCC Overhang as Scheme Meeting Set for 31 October
  • Xingda (1899 HK)’s HK$1.30/Share Offer – Say What?
  • MINISO Bets Big on Yonghui. Should Investors Be Concerned About the Acquisition?
  • EQD | A Very Weak KOSPI 200 Is Ready to Pull Back Again


All the Scoop on the Korea Value-Up Index

By Sanghyun Park

  • The index focuses on qualitative factors like capital efficiency and shareholder returns, but efforts to impose sector balance may have overextended its market benchmark role.
  • Some companies not fitting the ‘value-up’ narrative got included, while market favorites were sidelined by sector rankings, which is puzzling given the index’s original goal.
  • Still, with rebalancing cut down to once a year, we should expect the flow impact on the index names to hit harder than initially thought compared to their sector peers.

Korea Exchange Announces The Korea Value Up Index

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Exchange announced the long awaited Korea Value Up Index (“K Value Up Index”) (composed of 100 stocks) today. 
  • Korea Exchange used a 5-step screening process to select the 100 companies in this index including market cap, profitability, shareholder returns, market evaluation, and capital efficiency. 
  • This Value Up index is part of the bigger “Corporate Value Up ” program in Korea. These efforts to improve Korea’s corporate governance policies is a marathon, not a sprint. 

China’s [Maybe] Biggish [Quasi?] Bazooka

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, in a press conference held jointly by the Governor of the PBOC, the Director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau, and Chairman of the CSRC, China announced market stimulus measures.
  • The PBOC will cut RRR 50bp, the 7-day repo rate 20bp, guide effective mortgage rate cuts, and lower minimum down payments on second homes. There are other commercial RE measures.
  • Three major stock market measures were announced. A RMB500bn collateral swap programme, PBOC backing RMB300bn bank loans for corps to buy stocks, and a Plan to increase Central Huijin investments.

Tech: Japan’s Biggest IPO in 6 Years, Kioxia, Is Off. Here Is the Likely Reason

By Neil Campling

  • Significant peer price performance declines leaves IPO valuation stretched, the desired discount multiple to attract interest has suddenly become a premium
  • Investor interest in memory semiconductors, AI derivative stocks has cooled
  • Peer price sell-offs are extreme but could quickly change, reflecting the highly cyclical nature of the sector

Xingda (1899 HK): No Premium Voluntary Conditional Offer to Ward off a Hostile Holder

By Arun George

  • Xingda International (1899 HK) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from Mr Liu Jinlan (Chairman) at HK$1.30 per share, which aligns with the last close price. 
  • The offer is conditional on the offeror and concert parties representing more than 50% of voting rights. The offeror and concert parties represent 37.03% of voting rights.  
  • The offer is a reaction to Mr Zhao Yue’s “hostile” emergence as a substantial shareholder. It is unattractive and will require a bump to satisfy the minimum acceptance condition.   

Silverlake Axis (SILV SP): Circular Now Out. IFA Says Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 26 August, Goh Peng Ooi, founder and executive chair, made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 25.9% in Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) not held.
  • The Offer Doc for this S$0.36/share cash Offer was dispatched on the 26th August.  The Circular is also now out, which incorporates the IFA opinion.
  • Trading through terms. The first close is the 7th October. I don’t expect a bump, and the share price gradually retraces back to cash terms.

Capitol Health (CAJ AU): ACCC Overhang as Scheme Meeting Set for 31 October

By Arun George

  • The Capitol Health (CAJ AU) IE considers Integral Diagnostics (IDX AU)’s merger proposal (0.12849 Integral shares per Capitol share) fair and reasonable. 
  • While ACCC informal clearance is an overhang, the evidence suggests that clearance should be secured. The shareholder vote risk is low.
  • The offer terms are attractive. At the last close and for the 14 November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/37.3%.  

Xingda (1899 HK)’s HK$1.30/Share Offer – Say What?

By David Blennerhassett

  • After tyre component manufacturer Xingda International (1899 HK) was suspended recently pursuant to the Takeovers Code, an Offer seemed more likely, not another Partial Offer. 
  • On cue, Liu Jinlan, chairman and executive director, plus concert parties (collectively holding 37.03%), have tabled a voluntary conditional Offer (50% acceptance hurdle). But the price? A surprising zero-premium HK$1.30/share
  • However, this Offer is a pre-emptive strike against former employee Yue Zhao, who holds 9.24%; and was recently appointed ED and vice-chairman of Shougang Concord (103 HK), Xingda’s major competitor.

MINISO Bets Big on Yonghui. Should Investors Be Concerned About the Acquisition?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • MINISO‘s  acquisition of a 29.4% stake in the loss-making supermarket chain Yonghui  for USD 890 million has been viewed negatively by investors, leading to a sharp decline in Miniso’s stock.
  • The deal’s size, combined with Yonghui Superstores (601933 CH) unprofitable track record and   MINISO(9896 HK) ‘s unexpected move into the low-margin, highly competitive supermarket space, has likely fueled investor concerns.
  • However, we believe the acquisition provides Miniso with a strategic opportunity for growth and diversification to a sector that remains vital in the offline retail landscape at undemanding valuations.  

EQD | A Very Weak KOSPI 200 Is Ready to Pull Back Again

By Nico Rosti

  • The last 2 weeks have been painful for investors that were LONG the KOSPI 200 INDEX, and this week is not very promising either.
  • The index has advanced less than 3% since its last WEEKLY negative Close on September 6th.
  • The index is in its 3rd consecutive week up (to be confirmed this Friday at the Close) but the current pattern usually ends on the third week up and reverses.

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