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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric , PKSHA Technology, CELSYS, Tokyo Metro, Ain Holdings Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity
  • PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024
  • CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)
  • ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Midea, Intermestic, Sagility, Belstar, Kuaishou, Bajaj HF
  • Ain Shifts Focus with FrancFranc Acquisition


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity

By Scott Foster

  • Kokusai has dropped 44% from its July peak, offering a long-term opportunity at reasonably attractive valuations. Management’s guidance looks conservative.
  • KKR has reduced its stake from 43.4% to 23.2%, increasing the float while indicating that it still sees a long-term opportunity. Applied Materials has bought 14.7% of the company.
  • The completion of a new factory in Japan should double production capacity to meet demand from makers of AI processors, high-bandwidth memory, 3D NAND and power devices.

PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024

By Travis Lundy

  • PKSHA is an AI company. It was before this year, and got a boost this past spring. The stock price rose 60% in two weeks in February and March 2024.
  • Then it fell more than 50%. Back to late 2023 levels. High growth, growing into its valuations. Now moving to TSE Prime this week, TOPIX next month. 
  • Impact in days of ADV is lower than impact in Real World Float metrics. There are lots of day-traders. This probably has legs.

CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)

By Travis Lundy

  • 12 days ago, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA published his September version of TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (September 2024). His chosen name was CELSYS (3663 JP), a long-time TSE-Prime inclusion bet. 
  • This week on the 18th, they announced they were going to enter TSE Prime on 25 September. This was a somewhat well-known known. They were interested and had been. 
  • The stock popped 15% the next day. It’s a small cap, but there is a lot of float.

ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Midea, Intermestic, Sagility, Belstar, Kuaishou, Bajaj HF

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) hogged much of the limelight this week as well.
  • On the placements front, there were a few large US$400m+ placements across the region this week.

Ain Shifts Focus with FrancFranc Acquisition

By Michael Causton

  • Ain is best known for running prescription pharmacies but also has a lifestyle-oriented cosmetics chain called Ainz & Tulpe.
  • Without this, the acquisition of FrancFranc would look odd, but the merger of the two will create genuine synergies and a lifestyle business targeting women in their 20s and 30s.
  • The move makes sense given the pressure on margins in drug dispensing, Ain’s main business.

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Most Read: Korea Zinc, Samsung KODEX Samsung Group ETF, Seven & I Holdings, HLB Therapeutics , Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Kokusai Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price
  • Details of MBK’s Four Major Concerns on Management of Korea Zinc
  • Unique Rebalancing Pattern & Unique Trading Angle of the KODEX Samsung Group ETF
  • Will New KOSDAQ 150 Member HLB Therapeutics Show Webzen-Like Price Moves?
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong Financial, Swire Pac, Seven & I, Korea Zinc
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: HLB Therapeutics Replaces Jeisys Medical
  • Merger Arb Mondays (23 Sep) – Henlius, GA Pack, China TCM, Canvest, Trancom, Fuji Soft, Platinum
  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Massive Outperformance in Last Two Months; Time to Unwind?
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity


Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is watching for a 1 million share trading volume, as that may prompt neutral institutional investors to sell rather than participate in the tender, triggering a price hike.
  • MBK may raise the tender price to ₩900,000, a 35% jump, with a local pension fund CIO suggesting it’s the sweet spot for participation.
  • MBK believes securing the minimum target would give them 44% voting rights, enough to push their proposals, indicating they’ll go all-in for that 7% stake in this first attempt.

Details of MBK’s Four Major Concerns on Management of Korea Zinc

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss in detail MBK’s four major concerns on the management of Korea Zinc. 
  • We believe that MBK has legitimate concerns on especially the three factors including poor investments, deteriorating profitability, and increase in equity capital/disposal of treasury shares. 
  • If and when the 2 trillion won+ is raised, then it could lead to another tender offer and the four concerns highlighted in this insight become much more important.

Unique Rebalancing Pattern & Unique Trading Angle of the KODEX Samsung Group ETF

By Sanghyun Park

  • This KODEX Samsung Group ETF sees 30% AUM outflows pre-rebalancing, with the same chunk flowing back in after, especially noticeable during December.
  • Over three years, local brokers sold stock baskets before rebalancing, causing notable price impacts. During this time, Samsung affiliates in the ETF delivered 3-4% returns.
  • ChatGPT said:ChatGPTThis isn’t typical NAV arbitrage; it’s likely an unhedged play. Nonetheless, given the consistent price impact and accessible stock futures, it’s worth considering.

Will New KOSDAQ 150 Member HLB Therapeutics Show Webzen-Like Price Moves?

By Sanghyun Park

  • Jeisys Medical’s getting booted from the KOSDAQ 150, and HLB Therapeutics is stepping in as the new addition. This change will officially hit the book on Wednesday, September 25.
  • HLB Therapeutics, with a ₩0.70T market cap and 87% float, is set for a 0.51% weight in KOSDAQ 150, triggering over 2 million shares in passive buying: 3.26x 30-day ADTV.
  • With today’s after-hours volume spike in HLB Therapeutics, we’re likely to see some price action from early movers spilling into Monday’s open, similar to what we saw with Webzen.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong Financial, Swire Pac, Seven & I, Korea Zinc

By David Blennerhassett


KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: HLB Therapeutics Replaces Jeisys Medical

By Brian Freitas



STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Massive Outperformance in Last Two Months; Time to Unwind?

By Brian Freitas

  • 90% of the way through the review period, there could be 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index.
  • We estimate turnover of 1% for the STAR50 INDEX and 5.5% for the STAR100 Index. The net round-trip trade is CNY 3.2bn (US$453m).
  • The forecast add to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) has massively outperformed the forecast deletion from the index over the last two months.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.
  • Among TSMC’s top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
  • Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity

By Scott Foster

  • Kokusai has dropped 44% from its July peak, offering a long-term opportunity at reasonably attractive valuations. Management’s guidance looks conservative.
  • KKR has reduced its stake from 43.4% to 23.2%, increasing the float while indicating that it still sees a long-term opportunity. Applied Materials has bought 14.7% of the company.
  • The completion of a new factory in Japan should double production capacity to meet demand from makers of AI processors, high-bandwidth memory, 3D NAND and power devices.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Kokusai Electric , Tokyo Metro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity
  • ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Midea, Intermestic, Sagility, Belstar, Kuaishou, Bajaj HF


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity

By Scott Foster

  • Kokusai has dropped 44% from its July peak, offering a long-term opportunity at reasonably attractive valuations. Management’s guidance looks conservative.
  • KKR has reduced its stake from 43.4% to 23.2%, increasing the float while indicating that it still sees a long-term opportunity. Applied Materials has bought 14.7% of the company.
  • The completion of a new factory in Japan should double production capacity to meet demand from makers of AI processors, high-bandwidth memory, 3D NAND and power devices.

ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Midea, Intermestic, Sagility, Belstar, Kuaishou, Bajaj HF

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) hogged much of the limelight this week as well.
  • On the placements front, there were a few large US$400m+ placements across the region this week.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Kokusai Electric , Tokyo Metro and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity
  • ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Midea, Intermestic, Sagility, Belstar, Kuaishou, Bajaj HF


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity

By Scott Foster

  • Kokusai has dropped 44% from its July peak, offering a long-term opportunity at reasonably attractive valuations. Management’s guidance looks conservative.
  • KKR has reduced its stake from 43.4% to 23.2%, increasing the float while indicating that it still sees a long-term opportunity. Applied Materials has bought 14.7% of the company.
  • The completion of a new factory in Japan should double production capacity to meet demand from makers of AI processors, high-bandwidth memory, 3D NAND and power devices.

ECM Weekly (23rd Sep 2024) – Tokyo Metro, Midea, Intermestic, Sagility, Belstar, Kuaishou, Bajaj HF

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) and Bajaj Housing Finance (BHF IN) hogged much of the limelight this week as well.
  • On the placements front, there were a few large US$400m+ placements across the region this week.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Korea Zinc, Copper, Iron Ore, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price
  • Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness
  • Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term
  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Medco Energi, Meituan


Korea Zinc’s Latest Shareholder Roll & MBK’s Triggers to Sweeten Tender Price

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK is watching for a 1 million share trading volume, as that may prompt neutral institutional investors to sell rather than participate in the tender, triggering a price hike.
  • MBK may raise the tender price to ₩900,000, a 35% jump, with a local pension fund CIO suggesting it’s the sweet spot for participation.
  • MBK believes securing the minimum target would give them 44% voting rights, enough to push their proposals, indicating they’ll go all-in for that 7% stake in this first attempt.

Copper Tracker Sep 23rd, 2024: Markets Volatile, Accumulate Good Copper Names On Weakness

By Sameer Taneja


Iron Ore Tracker (23-Sep-2024): Liquidity in China Provides Relief, Still Bearish Short-Term

By Sameer Taneja

  • Iron underperformed the commodity complex, falling 1.2% WoW, vs the average complex performance of 3% WoW. 
  • PBOC rate cuts have yet to spur borrowing significantly. Despite the seasonal uptick, loan growth has trended negatively.  
  • We remain cautious till China shows any sign of a pick-up in demand. Indicators like mill margins and property/auto demand continue to be uninspiring. 

Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, Medco Energi, Meituan

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Health Care: HLB Therapeutics , Shanghai Henlius Biotech , Xiamen Amoytop Biotech Co Ltd, Sinopep-Allsino Bio Pharmaceutical, HealthCare Global Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: HLB Therapeutics Replaces Jeisys Medical
  • Merger Arb Mondays (23 Sep) – Henlius, GA Pack, China TCM, Canvest, Trancom, Fuji Soft, Platinum
  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Massive Outperformance in Last Two Months; Time to Unwind?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec 24: 5 Changes Possible; Exp ADDs yet to Outperform Exp DELs
  • HCG: Executing Well With Prudent Expansion


KOSDAQ150 Index Adhoc Rebalance: HLB Therapeutics Replaces Jeisys Medical

By Brian Freitas



STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Massive Outperformance in Last Two Months; Time to Unwind?

By Brian Freitas

  • 90% of the way through the review period, there could be 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 5 changes for the STAR100 Index.
  • We estimate turnover of 1% for the STAR50 INDEX and 5.5% for the STAR100 Index. The net round-trip trade is CNY 3.2bn (US$453m).
  • The forecast add to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) has massively outperformed the forecast deletion from the index over the last two months.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Dec 24: 5 Changes Possible; Exp ADDs yet to Outperform Exp DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization, and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • We expect up to five ADDs and five DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index review event based on the latest available data.

HCG: Executing Well With Prudent Expansion

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HCG reported a decent Q1FY25 with revenue growth of 16.7% YoY, adjusted for a discontinued center in Bangalore. Growth was robust across both established and emerging centers.
  • Emerging centers (Kolkata, Borivali and South Mumbai) grew strong at 33% YoY while established centers also grew healthy at 14% YoY. All emerging centers, but South Mumbai center, are profitable.
  • We estimate that HCG could post a PAT of around INR 280cr+ by FY27. An investment in HCG at the current level has potential to provide an upside of 85%+.  

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), PKSHA Technology, Intel Corp, CELSYS, United Microelectronics Corp, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Sea , Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology Co Ltd, Novatek Microelectronics Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.
  • PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024
  • Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.
  • CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)
  • UMC (2303.TT; UMC US): The Outlook for 4Q24 Is Somewhat Bearish.
  • SMIC (981.HK): Surviving Amidst a Prolonged US-China Trade War
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues
  • Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales
  • Pre-IPO Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

By Patrick Liao

  • We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.
  • Among TSMC’s top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
  • Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.

PKSHA Tech (3993 JP) – TOPIX Inclusion in October 2024

By Travis Lundy

  • PKSHA is an AI company. It was before this year, and got a boost this past spring. The stock price rose 60% in two weeks in February and March 2024.
  • Then it fell more than 50%. Back to late 2023 levels. High growth, growing into its valuations. Now moving to TSE Prime this week, TOPIX next month. 
  • Impact in days of ADV is lower than impact in Real World Float metrics. There are lots of day-traders. This probably has legs.

Tech M&A: Qualcomm for Intel? No Chance. Here’s Why.

By Neil Campling

  • SAMR would draw out review process for too long for a deal to be approved
  • Intel faces an existential crisis and even the new Foundry division has issues
  • A theoretical deal would have little financial synergy and destroy Qualcomm’s gross margins

CELSYS (3663 JP) Finally Makes It to Prime Time (TOPIX Inclusion Next Month)

By Travis Lundy

  • 12 days ago, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA published his September version of TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (September 2024). His chosen name was CELSYS (3663 JP), a long-time TSE-Prime inclusion bet. 
  • This week on the 18th, they announced they were going to enter TSE Prime on 25 September. This was a somewhat well-known known. They were interested and had been. 
  • The stock popped 15% the next day. It’s a small cap, but there is a lot of float.

UMC (2303.TT; UMC US): The Outlook for 4Q24 Is Somewhat Bearish.

By Patrick Liao

  • The outlook for 4Q24 appears somewhat bearish at the moment, though it has not been fully defined before the end of October.
  • Taiwanese companies such as MediaTek Inc (2454 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) and Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT) continue to be the main drivers of demand for UMC.
  • On a positive note, there are warnings against overly relying on chips from Chinese manufacturers due to US sanctions.

SMIC (981.HK): Surviving Amidst a Prolonged US-China Trade War

By Patrick Liao

  • SMIC’s revenue might be looking at around US$2bn in 4Q24 and it’s a bit reduction of GM from 3Q24 because of the seasonality at the year end.
  • Since around 2019, US was putting an sanction on China, no matter how the argument is true.
  • SMIC continued delivering 7nm chips, and even the 5nm chips could be further delivered using a similar method, although the yield rate may be a concern.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Qualcomm Eyes Bold Intel Acquisition; Global Semi Sales Strength Continues

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Qualcomm Eyes Bold, Friendly Intel Acquisition Amid Intel’s Existential Crisis
  • Global Semi Sales Strength Continues In July. How Long Can It Last? 
  • Asustek Soars, Uniquely Making Fresh 52-Week Highs Within PC Makers

Weekly Consumer Tales: Shopee Youtube Tieup-China Home Price Slump-India’s Rising Gold, Iphone Sales

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Sea (SE US) owned Shopee has partnered with YouTube to drive GMV growth and resist  competition with TikTok, which has strengthened its regional presence through its stake in Tokopedia,
  • India’s strong shopping appetite was reflected in robust gold purchases in August and high demand for the iPhone 16 launched last week.

Pre-IPO Zhejiang Taimei Medical Technology (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Declining customer retention rate indicates that a slowdown in future revenue growth seems inevitable. If revenue growth stagnates, it means Taimei’s business model hasn’t been fully validated by the market.
  • Taimei’s IPO on SSE STAR Market was rejected. This means regulatory authorities don’t recognize Taimei’s core technology/performance prospects. Taimei has to take a step back and list on the HKEX.
  • Post-Investment valuation reached RMB8.1 billion after Series F financing. However, considering the continuous decline in valuation of its peers, we are concerned about Taimei’s future stock price performance after IPO.

Novatek (3034.TT): To Utilizing on IPhone 16 DDIC Will Soon Be Largely Replaced by Korean Fabless.

By Patrick Liao

  • Apple (AAPL US) will initially use Novatek’s DDIC (Display Driver IC) for the iPhone 16, but it will soon being replaced largely.
  • In 4Q24, there is a possibility of experiencing a decline, with a potential quarter-over-quarter decrease of approximately 5-10%.
  • The Chinese panel market continues to be a key battleground, and Novatek must navigate these challenges to remain competitive.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Ain Holdings Inc, Webtoon Entertainment and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ain Shifts Focus with FrancFranc Acquisition
  • Webtoon Entertainment: A Weakening USD Will Give A Lift To 3Q Earnings, Founder Picked Up 42K Shares


Ain Shifts Focus with FrancFranc Acquisition

By Michael Causton

  • Ain is best known for running prescription pharmacies but also has a lifestyle-oriented cosmetics chain called Ainz & Tulpe.
  • Without this, the acquisition of FrancFranc would look odd, but the merger of the two will create genuine synergies and a lifestyle business targeting women in their 20s and 30s.
  • The move makes sense given the pressure on margins in drug dispensing, Ain’s main business.

Webtoon Entertainment: A Weakening USD Will Give A Lift To 3Q Earnings, Founder Picked Up 42K Shares

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Webtoon Entertainment, a Korean the world’s largest digital comics platform, has successfully completed IPO and private placement in June.
  • The NAVER-backed storytelling platform has raised ~$359M and priced its IPO and concurrent private placement at $21.00 per share, at the top end of price range.  
  • However, Webtoon Entertainment shares significantly underperformed with shares down ~48% below IPO offer price.

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Daily Brief Financials: NIFTY Index, Kolte Patil Developers, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Nuvama Wealth Management, IREDA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Ride the Fed Seesaw
  • Kolte Patil: New Launches Were Tepid In Q1 But FY25 Is On Track For Strong Performance
  • Bajaj Finance: Mixed Q1, However Growth Trajectory Remains Intact
  • Nuvama: Continues to Post Robust Performance
  • IREDA QIP Early Look – Strong Momentum, Although Valuations Are Eye-Popping


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Ride the Fed Seesaw

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs seesawed through the week on account of the Fed meeting. Trading up to 12.7% going into the meeting & selling-off to 11.4% thereafter.
  • Vol-Curve Term-structure in Contango post Fed meeting – Nifty50 vol curve sheds its inversion & BankNifty vol curve loses its kinked-shape
  • BankNifty Smile & Skew characteristics extend relative to previous weeks – despite falling IVs & strengthening index.

Kolte Patil: New Launches Were Tepid In Q1 But FY25 Is On Track For Strong Performance

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Kolte Patil reported a decent Q1FY25 with pre-sales of INR 711cr. This was lower than expected, however, adjusted for weak new launch activity, it was healthy.
  • Q1FY25 pre-sales was mostly led by sustenance sales. New launches worth INR 1500cr have been initiated mostly in Q2FY25, thus will start reflecting in 2HFY25 pre-sales numbers.
  • With highest-ever quarterly collection at INR 612cr, operating cash flows has remained strong. The balance sheet remains robust with negative net debt, allowing Kolte Patil to aggressively pursue new projects.

Bajaj Finance: Mixed Q1, However Growth Trajectory Remains Intact

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Bajaj Finance (“BAF”) reported a decent Q1FY25 with robust AUM growth, however, loan losses came in slightly elevated. AUM grew 31% YoY to reach INR 3,54,192cr.
  • Annualized credit cost inched up to 2.1% vs 1.75-1.85% guided for FY25. This was led largely by weak collection efficiency. BAF is working on enhancing its collection infrastructure.
  • BAF listed its housing finance subsidiary on Sep 16, unlocking value for the shareholders. It created history with highest-ever subscription amount and got listed at a premium of 114%.

Nuvama: Continues to Post Robust Performance

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Nuvama’s Q1FY25 results were yet again stellar with 60% YoY growth in revenues. The excess growth came from the Capital Markets segment where the activity has been upbeat. 
  • The Wealth Management and Asset Management segments, which are core to the business, continued to post secular growth in the range of 18-25% YoY.
  • For the first-time ever, Nuvama Wealth Management (“Nuvama”) also declared dividend. Given the capital light nature of the business, it indicates prudent capital allocation.

IREDA QIP Early Look – Strong Momentum, Although Valuations Are Eye-Popping

By Clarence Chu

  • IREDA (1845911D IN) is looking to raise INR45bn (US$538m) via its qualified institutional placement (QIP).
  • Most recently on 19th Sept 2024, IREDA received the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management’s (DIPAM) approval for said QIP.
  • Overall, the deal wouldn’t be a large one for the stock to digest at just 4.7 days of three month ADV.

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Daily Brief ESG: Focus on Cash Flow Recovery from Investments as Planned and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Focus on Cash Flow Recovery from Investments as Planned, as Well as Appropriate Cash Allocation


Focus on Cash Flow Recovery from Investments as Planned, as Well as Appropriate Cash Allocation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Last year’s CAPEX plan was also a record high, but ROE growth was limited. We should closely monitor whether the allocation of CAPEX, shareholder returns, and retained earnings is appropriate.
  • When a company finally begins using cash on hand for investments and lacks reliable track records, it should be monitored to ensure that it’s generating sufficient cash flow from CAPEX.
  • The trend continues to remain that most investments are directed overseas. Note that many Japanese companies have a history of having difficulty managing their overseas operations.

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