TMT/Internet Archives | Page 31 of 122 | Smartkarma

• In line with our forecast, Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) replaces L&T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.
• L&T Technology Services (LTTS IN) is also being excluded from the F&O segment at the close on 27 March. Open interest is ~900k shares and there will be unwinding.
• Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stocks. Impact increases to 1-2 days of delivery volume.

• There will be 5 changes for the Hang Seng Internet & Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the March rebalance. There is one surprise for us with Synagistics being added.
• Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 6.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.74bn (US$482m). 4 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.
• Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is an add to the HSIII, Hang Seng TECH Index and HSCI. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will take place in May.

• Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP). Done. Finally. Look at whether you could borrow shares just before the close of the tender and short tender and buy back post ex-date
• REA Group Ltd (REA AU) rolls over as Costar Group (CSGP US) bets big on key rival Domain Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU).
• Macromill (3978 JP)‘s tender extended. Still not a done deal. Look to buy shares at terms with the goal of NOT tendering and owning the back end.

• It is a paradox US President wanted to make the US the number one semiconductor manufacturing country but is very likely unable to change the existing environment in the US.
• Another paradox is that a foreign company must obtain approval from the relevant US authorities before transferring control of the specific US company, which may not be feasible.
• It raises the third paradox that a Taiwanese company would need to operate an existing US entity with their company’s expertise under different cost conditions.  

• Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) announced a non-binding proposal from Costar Group (CSGP US) at A$4.20, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$3.12 (20 February).
• The bid follows CoStar’s acquisition of a 16.9% stake in Domain on 20 February. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU)‘s support is crucial for its success.  
• While attractive to precedent transaction multiples, the offer is light compared to peer multiples. Nine is evaluating the offer and will likely push for improved terms.

• I tally 58 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Four new deals discussed this week: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Tam Jai International (2217 HK), and PEC Ltd. (PEC SP).
• Key updates/news took place on: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK),Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), and Proto Corp (4298 JP).

• There are 29 adds and 41 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 505.
• We expect 27 of the 29 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect from the open on 10 March while Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) should be added in May.
• We expect 28 of the 41 HSCI deletions will be removed from Stock Connect and there has been increased Southbound holding in a lot of the stock this calendar year.

• Bilibili (BILI) reported C4Q24 revenue and GAAP operating profit in line, 87% vs. our estimates and in line, 130% vs. consensus. 
• We see BILI’s content strategy to be working to drive higher and better traffic, benefiting the ads business. 
• We BUY and raised our TP to US$24 awaiting further details on game pipeline. The stock trading at 2025 PE of 31x.

• AppLovin’s financial performance for the fourth quarter of 2024 indicates a pivotal shift in its operational focus and growth strategy.
• Over the quarter, total revenue increased by 44% year-over-year to $1.37 billion, fueled significantly by an expanded advertising business that brought in $999 million in revenue.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA surged by 78% to $848 million, maintaining a healthy margin of 62%.

• Pegasystems, a leader in software solutions for customer engagement and operational efficiency, demonstrated a robust performance in its fiscal year 2024.
• The company reached its strategic milestone of becoming a “Rule of 40” company, reflecting balanced growth and profitability.
• This achievement highlights the successful execution of its transition strategy from a traditional sales model to a subscription-based cloud business.

• BIDU reported C4Q24 top line, non-GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income in-line, (22%) and (7.0%) vs. our est. and (3.7%), (24%) and in line vs. cons. 
• While monetization on a largely in-house app repertoire can ensure AI revenue to start kicking in in C2H25, we are concerned on the size of this revenue, 
• We maintain our SELL but raise TP to US$80 to reflect a short-term trading opportunity around AI monetization.

• SK Hynix CEO remains bullish on semiconductor industry growth, highlighting new opportunities amidst challenges like DeepSeek.
• Oppo forges ahead with release of Find N5 foldable phone, undeterred by market slowdown in pursuit of growth and innovation.
• EU greenlights funds for Infineon’s Dresden fab in chip incentive effort, signaling continued support for semiconductor sector. Samsung exec receives sentence for leaking 18nm DRAM tech to CXMT, highlighting importance of protecting intellectual property.

• Confluent, Inc. exhibited several key strengths and challenges in its recent financial performance.
• The company’s subscription revenue for the fiscal year grew by 24% to $250.6 million, driven by a 38% increase in Confluent Cloud revenue and a 10% growth in Confluent Platform revenue.
• This reflects continued strong demand for enterprise-grade data streaming solutions, particularly in regulated industries.

• Tyler Technologies’ fourth-quarter results reflect a period of strong financial performance, characterized by significant growth and expansion across its key operational pillars.
• The company experienced 12.5% revenue increase, largely spurred by a 21.9% jump in subscription revenues, particularly within their SaaS offerings which saw close to 23% growth.
• This rise in subscription income underscores a strategic pivot towards cloud-based solutions, which remained a focal point in Tyler’s strategy, evident by accelerated SaaS adoption and a reduction in on-premise license revenues.

• BlackLine, a cloud-based platform for finance and accounting professionals, reported its Q4 2024 earnings with mixed performance metrics.
• The company achieved 9% revenue growth despite the adverse impact of a strong U.S. dollar, which added currency headwinds.
• Non-GAAP operating margin was recorded at 18%, and the revenue renewal rate showed improvement, positioning at 96%—a significant metric in customer retention and satisfaction.

• Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, outlining a strategic focus on driving commercial excellence, targeting growth vectors, and enhancing profitability.
• The company reported overall revenue growth for 2024 and noted that its growth trajectory is set to accelerate in 2025.
• In 2024, FIS reported a revenue growth rate between 3% to 4%, slightly below the company’s initial expectations due to one-time items affecting the quarter.

• GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent challenges in its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results.
• On the positive side, the fourth quarter slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company’s revenue guidance, achieving approximately $1.83 billion, although this was a minor 1% decline compared to the same quarter in the prior year.
• The company also reported a significant milestone, as it generated over $1 billion in adjusted free cash flow, exceeding its target and marking robust performance despite industry headwinds.

• IAC’s recent earnings outlined significant changes and challenges, highlighting both strategic adjustments and the impact of previous business decisions.
• The company has faced considerable difficulties in two of its principal businesses: Angi Inc. and Dotdash Meredith.
• For Angi Inc., the shift from a previous $260 million EBITDA to just $35 million was a primary concern.

• IPG Photonics, a global leader in laser technology, reported its fourth-quarter earnings reflecting a nuanced blend of strategic planning and ongoing challenges.
• For the quarter, IPG Photonics recorded revenues at the higher end of its guidance, amounting to $234 million, a slight sequential improvement but a year-over-year decline of 22%.
• This decline was attributed primarily to weak performance in key application areas such as welding, cutting, and marking, amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape and increased competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers, in laser cutting systems.

• In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.
• Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.
• Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). 

• Hang Seng Indexes announces changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index, HSIII Index and HSCI Index (among others) post market close today. 
• The net round-trip trade across the stocks is estimated to be HK$35bn (US$4.5bn) with big impact in a lot of stocks.
• Capping will lead to most inflows to Meituan (3690 HK) while the largest outflows will be from Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK). 

• Liang Wanfang became a celebrity overnight, with visitors from all over Guangdong coming to pay their respects
• Liang has been praised for his contributions to China’s tech sector, surpassing competitors and boosting national pride
• China’s tech sector has faced challenges, including regulatory crackdowns and decreased foreign investment, leading to a shift towards state-backed funding and increased risk for entrepreneurs.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• TSMC: +22.2% Premium; Wait for Higher Level Before Fresh Short of Spread
• UMC: 0% Premium (Parity) — Massive Increase in ADR Headroom
• ChipMOS: +0.5% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Levels; Earnings Ahead

• Samsung Life isn’t getting a boost from Samsung Fire, so they need to stay focused on managing equity to maintain their K-ICS ratio.
• They’ll use capital securities issuance as a quick fix but must also monitor their Samsung Electronics stake, a major asset, to manage the situation effectively.
• Samsung Electronics will likely focus on dividends over buybacks. Watch for a pair trade setup between common and preferred shares, favoring long positions on preferreds.

• Hong Kong’s secular bull market continues this year with record buying from mainland investors through the Southbound Connect platform.
• AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) announced a positive profit alert of of 150% increase in profit for 2024.  The AI, phone and auto segments saw value content increases.
• Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) is well-positioned to cater to China’s increasing demand for locally designed and produced chips, especially in the EV, smart home appliances and wearables industries.

• Amazon.com reported a strong fourth quarter for 2024, with a revenue of $187.8 billion, reflecting a year-over year growth of 10%.
• Notably, this growth was primarily driven by the company’s strategic focus on expanding its product selection, competitive pricing, and enhanced delivery services, which significantly boosted customer engagement and unit sales, especially in the North American and International segments.
• The company’s operating income also saw a substantial improvement, reaching $21.2 billion, marking a 61% increase from the previous year, further supported by effective cost management and productivity improvements throughout its distribution network.

• Softbank’s investment in Arm, valued at around USD 148 billion, is its new NAV driver, after its 300% rally post its IPO.
• Despite an ongoing share buyback and an LTV near 12.9%, Softbank is still trading around a 59% discount to its net asset value. 
• Softbank looks like a good proxy for investing in Arm and being long Softbank and Short Arm looks like reasonable risk/reward at current levels. 

• After rallying ~50% from its lows, Alibaba rallied another ~10% after reporting in-line result, despite saying it would spend more capex in the next 3 years than the previous 10; 
• Behind this performance is a sudden clarification of AI’s monetization future in China. Alibaba’s vision certainly has itself at the center of beneficiary, but a few other readings also exist;
• Alibaba suggested that partial replacement of human worker is possible in a platform with structured workflow, allowing AI users to reap benefits earlier than we have anticipated. 

• Costar Group (CSGP US) bought a 16.9% stake in Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) yesterday at A$4.2/share in cash. That is a 34.6% premium to the last close.
• Then, Costar Group (CSGP US) made a non-binding indicative proposal to buy all the Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) shares it did not own at A$4.2/share.
• Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) owns just over 60% of Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) and should move higher on the offer.

• Honda-Nissan merger and Renault-Geely alliance shake up auto industry landscape, causing speculation and uncertainty.
• AI technology leading to increased demand for edge computing and device upgrades due to affordable costs and improved efficiency.
• Liquid-cooled fast charging technology set to revolutionize EV charging by 2025, allowing for ultrafast charging speeds. Tesla’s India factory plans criticized by Trump. Grok 3 drives spike in AI server demand.

• Carving out IFS & taking it private is the most likely outcome for Intel. However, it’s complicated by the SCIP deals and restrictions attached to the CHIPS money.  
• Intel Products Group most likely stays with Intel, maintaining the iconic brand and doubling down on efficiency and innovation. I don’t think it gets sold. 
• TSMC is unlikely to have any technical role in a spun out Intel Foundry due to a myriad of reasons including monopoly, conflict of interest, insufficient bandwidth etc.

• We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
• Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM).
• We provide updates on Taste Gourmet (8371 HK) / Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK) ,the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM), and Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN) .

• Telefónica is actively pursuing asset sales in Latin America and Europe, aiming to streamline operations and reduce net debt. The company anticipates generating approximately €3.27 billion from these transactions.
• Assuming minimal tax liabilities due to potential offsets from existing losses, the net proceeds could be applied directly to debt reduction, representing an 11.4% decrease in net debt (2.5x EBITDA).
• Telefónica’s dividend remains well covered, with a dividend yield of 7.2% for 2025e, significantly above the 10-year Spanish bond yield (3.2%).

• SPS Commerce has reported a strong performance for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024, showcasing a notable growth trajectory.
• For the full year, the company’s revenue increased by 19% to $637.8 million, with recurring revenue rising by 20%.
• Fulfillment and analytics sectors also saw significant growth, with the former growing by 20% and the latter by 8%.

• XL Axiata 4Q2024 results were solid despite lingering price competition in 4Q2024, especially from Telkomsel but this now looks to have abated with higher data pricing likely in 2025.
• The company saw its revenues driven by increasing data traffic and higher ARPUs but XL also grew its subscriber numbers last year despite increasing data pricing ahead of competitors.
• The FREN merger is ongoing with the completion due by end1H2025, with its Link Net restructuring complete, boosting its fixed broadband business. Valuations attractive with easing competition in 2025.

• Monday.com’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 results, highlighted noteworthy achievements alongside challenges and strategic changes.
• Roy Mann, Co-CEO, emphasized reaching a major milestone of $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, indicating robust demand for monday.com’s Work OS platform.
• The company reported substantial growth with total revenue for Q4 2024 at $268 million—a 32% increase from the previous year—and an annual revenue of $972 million, marking a 33% year-over-year growth.

• On Semiconductor Corporation’s latest earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 reveals a mixed set of results, shaped by a combination of strategic decisions and challenging market conditions.
• The company’s revenue for the full year was $7.1 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 45.5%.
• This reflects a commitment to their transformation strategy focusing on intelligent power and sensing technologies, particularly in automotive, industrial, and AI data centers.

• Lattice Semiconductor provided a detailed overview of its financial performance and strategic outlook for the third quarter of 2024.
• The company’s results were generally in line with internal expectations, marking distinct progress in specific segments despite facing notable industry-wide headwinds.
• Revenue for the quarter was reported at $127.1 million, maintaining alignment with previously provided guidance.

• Based on Amkor Technology’s latest earnings call, the company’s performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 presented a mixed outlook with various challenges and achievements across different market sectors.
• For the fourth quarter, Amkor Technology reported revenues of $1.63 billion and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43, aligning with earlier guidance.
• However, the company witnessed a 3% revenue decline year-over-year, closing the year with $6.3 billion.

• Xtapli is looking to raise around US$242m via a primary placement, after having raised US$145m in Jan 2025.
• QuantumPharm is a R&D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&D solutions.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• TSMC & Broadcom Exploring Intel Acquisitions; Potential Major Consolidation in the Foundry Space
• Taiwan AI Server Leader Expanding to Texas with New Production Hub
• Semi WFE Revenues Increase ~7% YoY In 2024. 2025 Looks Much The Same. So, Where’s The AI Effect? 

• Hexaware Technologies raised around US$1bn in its India IPO, while its anchor book was strong, overall coverage was not. 
• Hexaware is a global digital and technology services company with AI at its core, delivering innovative solutions that help customers in their digital transformation journey and subsequent operations.
• We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) started to rally after an article on the WSJ said that the Taiwanese company is considering buying Intel’s semiconductor manufacturing plants.
• As always, buy the rumor, sell the news is a possibile strategy here: our models say the stock is getting quickly overbought (WEEKLY period).
• In this insight we will provide some short-term, tactical guidance to identify profit targets, where can you expect to see the stock reaching in the next few days/weeks.

• We expect BIDU to post C4Q24 top line,non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (5.1%), (7.7%) and (8.7%) vs. consensus.We expect BIDU to issue C1Q25 top line guidance (1.2%) vs.consensus;
• BIDU’s problem is not only manifested in the loss of the Apple contract,it is also the loss of first mover advantage in both Generative Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Driving Services. 
• Losing traffic advantage, BIDU has become a self-containing app ecosystem but all pillars of this ecosystem is facing intensifying competition. SELL @US$78.

• Singapore’s Premier Marina Operator. SUTL Enterprise is a leading Singapore-based marina developer, operator, and consultant, specializing in integrated luxury marina projects under its proprietary ONE°15 brand.
• The company operates its flagship ONE°15 Marina Sentosa Cove and extends its expertise to third-party marinas through long-term management contracts and consultancy services. With a strong brand position and established industry leadership, SUTL is expanding across Asia-Pacific, capitalizing on growing demand for luxury yachting and premium marina infrastructure.
• Diverse and Resilient Revenue Streams. SUTL generates revenue through recurring membership fees, marina management contracts, and sales of goods and services.

• Anterix has showcased notable developments in its fiscal third quarter of 2025 that have implications for prospective and current investors.
• The company has announced a $13.5 million expansion agreement with the Lower Colorado River Authority, which expanded Anterix’s 900-megahertz broadband spectrum coverage in Texas.
• This expansion is a testament to Anterix’s growing scale and its penetration into utility communications solutions, covering a substantial geographic footprint across 15 states, surpassing U.S. Cellular in coverage.

• ASE opens its 5th factory in Penang, emphasizing AI-driven smart manufacturing to enhance production efficiency and quality.
• Win Semiconductors plans to expand in optical communications by leveraging SiPh CPO technology, aiming to capitalize on growing market demand.
• DRAM manufacturers are considering discontinuing production of DDR3 and DDR4 by the end of 2025, signaling a shift towards newer technologies.

• Stronger than expected performance – Q1-3 FY3/25 results were a positive surprise, with larger than expected OPM expansion YoY driven by effective advertising cost control in both the Digital Entertainment and Lifestyle segments and strong sales growth in the Sports segment driven by the Spectator Sports business.
• The company has upwardly revised FY3/25 guidance, denoting a strong finish for Q4 FY3/25 and indicating that profitability will remain higher than expected for the medium term.
• We have revised our earnings estimates for FY3/26, which denotes flat reported earnings growth YoY; the underlying trend, excluding the sale of Timee (215A) shares in FY3/25, shows OP growth of approximately 10% YoY.

• Belizaire discussed the strength of the 3Q24 numbers (4Q24 earnings report is due soon).
• Results included a 30% Y/Y revenue increase, an adjusted EBITDA flip from a loss of $4.5 million in 3Q23 to a profit of $3.5 million in 3Q24, and the development of the Soluna Cloud (for AI computing).
• For 2025, Belizaire is looking at a growing set of projects moving to operation and revenue, including a growing pipeline, hitting 2.6GW of computing power (with demand for more), flagship Dorothy, and projects Kati and Rosa.

• Today quite late, the JIC Consortium announced the launch of the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer expected “mid-February”. Price is still ¥5,920/share. 
• This is basically going to be all arbs and passive now. And arbs gonna arb.
• Congrats if you bought the lows in late November early December. Great trade. Congrats if you bought the last delay dip. Now we can all go home.

• Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 March.
• With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 2.75% with 3 stocks being capped downward. This gives the index committee the opportunity to add more stocks without significantly increasing turnover.
• The return of the high and medium probability inclusions has matched the performance of the Hang Seng Index over the last few months, Shorts have climbed in some names.

• Himax 4Q24 Results Show Auto Display Surge — Structural Growth Story Visible with Touch Panel Usage in Vehicles Soaring
• China vs. the Rest of the World: Who’s Moving Faster? China Automakers Far Ahead in Display Sophistication
• Himax on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — A Critical New Technology for AI and HPC Processing

• The Rebuilding Korea Party’s hints about this bill since Thursday are seen as a key reason Samsung Electronics’ stock has stalled, despite hype around affiliate shareholder returns.
• With polls dipping, Lee is shifting right. Given the political shifts, pushing through the controversial Samsung Life Act seems unlikely for now.
• Instead of focusing on legislative chances, we should see Samsung Electronics’ stock stall as a short-term entry opportunity ahead of the shareholder return announcement

• Sailpoint Technologies Holdings (SAIL US) is forecasted to be excluded from the one global index because of a low free float which is below the minimum threshold.
• SAIL is forecasted to be added to the other global index at the September 2025 review. Conviction is medium as its fcap is near the threshold.
• The security is forecasted to be added to snp TMI and rasel 1000 in March and June 2025, respectively. It is estimated to have failed fast-entry for TMI.

• Small caps generally trade between a 50% discount to the S&P 500 and a 50% premium. The current discount is 22%.
• Relative periods of outperformance tend to last for waves of at least 13 years.
• The current dominance of large caps over small caps has lasted ~13 years. This suggests the cycle could be due to change.

• Apple may move iPhone assembly to Indonesia to comply with local content rules and sales ban, shifting focus from Vietnam to India
• India’s AI ambitions hindered by GPU shortages and high costs, while 5G market projected to grow significantly by 2025
• BYD reveals ‘God’s Eye’ smart driving system with budget-friendly aims, as Micron set to challenge Samsung in HBM3E market

• Genpact Limited reported a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, with revenue reaching $1.25 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase.
• The company showcased a particularly impressive growth in their Data-Tech-AI segment, which rose by 12% year-over-year, showcasing the potential and growth of this sector within the organization.
• Additionally, Digital Operations saw a 6% year-over-year increase, indicating strong demand across their business segments.

• Complete rally mode across single stocks and sectors with the 3 highest single stock option volumes of the past 3 months recorded.
• More than 25% of issues experience more than 100% increase in options volume. 
• We highlight names with the largest increases in both Put and Call volumes including Alibaba, Alibaba Health, AIA, China telecom and Kingdee.

• It has been a 5-months journey for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , from its last peak in September 2024, to its current lows.
• Our WEEKLY model indicates a (mildly) OVERSOLD state (Friday at Close, 22929). If the index pulls back a bit more, it’s a BUY but keep reading…
• Our tactical short-term model has found limited upside for the NIFTY at the moment, so the long-waited restart of the uptrend may be a bit bumpy.

• The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
• The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
• Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.

• Starting this year, both year-end and interim divvies follow the new rule, with ex-div dates set after the payout is confirmed.
• Quarterly dividend arbitrage will heat up, especially for high-yield bank stocks, attracting traders to cash in on the spread.
• Samsung Electronics is likely to update bylaws at the March AGM, with Q1 payout ex-div dates set after the dividend is confirmed.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) filed for an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion, and Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) seeks to raise US$1 billion.
• Event-Driven developments: Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP), Zenhoren (5845 JP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP). 

• The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is confirmed. 
• For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is still tops. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) second. Shift Inc (3697 JP) third.
• Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I wrote bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (link). Now we count flows.

• We believe the recent launches of AI Model will challenge the assumptions of AI training costs, and we are still in early stages of AI revolution
• It will maintain a sustainable growth of AI infrastructure like data centers, instead of reducing the demand. GDS and VNET are well positioned to capture this tailwind
• VNET and GDS were up 303% and 268% for last 12 months, we think it is not too late to chase the rally

• HSI’s 10-day return of 11.84% ranks it just below the 99th percentile of all 10-day moves since 2000.  
• This move has been unusual given the low level of historic volatility, ranking it as one of the lowest vol moves of this magnitude.
• The current move is abnormal for its return relative to volatility – we dig deeper into how returns and volatility are likely to evolve.

• HSCEI sets new 52-week high by a hair. Rally over the last 10 days ranks in the 97th percentile since 2000.
• Spot and implied maintain a positive correlation which will see implieds come off should this rally reverse course. 
• We recommend two trades for those looking to tactically lighten positions into the rally.

• Rally over the past 2 weeks has landed it in the 99th percentile since 2000 and has also been accompanied by low volatility.
• The up-trend has a number of characteristics similar to the 21% rally in May 2024 and is in line with levels from which market has failed to advance.
• Given how price and vol are likely to evolve over the next month we suggest tactical positions to reduce position size 

• China Mobile (941 HK) experienced a 6.8% increase over five consecutive positive weeks. This Insight builds on the work of quantitative analysis identifying resistance and support levels.
• This Insight presents four different options strategies to combine quantitative insights with volatility and option analysis. 
• Option strategies cater for both bullish, bearish, or neutral views, and can be tailored to fit a given risk budget.

• Freee KK (4478 JP) reported 2QFY06/2025 results on Friday which beat consensus estimates. The company also reported a second consecutive quarter of operating profits in 2Q.
• Despite cutting down significantly on selling and marketing, freee has managed to maintain growth. The company also has revised upwards its OP guidance and expects positive adj. free cashflows.
• Though freee’s share price has moved up 35% YTD, strengthening profitability and its solid business model vs Money Forward (3994 JP) should further drive share price up.

• The 2nd phase of the buyback, around 3T KRW with a 3-month window, could drop this week, likely by mid- or end-week.
• The market’s worried Samsung might not retire the shares this time and could handle them differently.
• The latest talk is that Samsung will retire the shares immediately, like Phase 1. This could be an inflection point for solid short-term price action—time to set up positions.

• Apple Inc. has teamed up with e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to develop artificial intelligence (AI) features for iPhones in China, sources familiar with the matter told Caixin.

• The iPhone maker is intensifying its collaboration with Alibaba on AI large model technology, but it remains unclear whether Apple will work exclusively with a single company, according to three sources.

• Apple and Alibaba haven’t replied to Caixin’s inquires.

• Reportedly buyout firms are “vying for” Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.
• Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
• While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)‘s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.

• Cloudflare Inc. concluded 2024 with a robust performance, reporting notable financial and operational achievements for the fourth quarter.
• Revenue reached $459.9 million, marking a 27% increase compared to the previous year.
• The company reported significant growth in its large customer segment—those contributing over $100,000 annually—with a year-over-year uptick of 27% in this segment, representing 69% of total revenue, up from 66% the previous year.

• China smartphone market in 4Q 2024 expected to see growth, intensifying competition among top brands.
• GlobalWafers remains stable despite uncertainty around US CHIPS Act funding.
• Yageo surprises with Shibaura Electronics takeover bid, Foxconn proposes partnership with Nissan, Forces Mos wins patent case against Asus.

• Fortinet Inc.’s fiscal results for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2024 demonstrate both strengths and challenges within the company.
• Positively, Fortinet achieved a total revenue growth of 17% for the quarter, marking a significant upturn, especially in product revenue, which attained an 18% increase—the best in six quarters.
• The company’s strategic focus on secure networking, particularly in Unified SASE, resulted in a growth of 13% for this segment, making up 23% of the company’s business.

• Vishay Intertechnology has recently reported its fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2024 financial results, highlighting both challenges and opportunities.
• The company’s quarterly revenue was reported at $714.7 million, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, and total revenue for the year stood at $2.9 billion, reflecting a decline from the prior year.
• This downturn was attributed to an extended period of inventory correction, primarily impacting the automotive and industrial end markets in Europe, Asia, and the Americas.

• Roblox Corporation recently reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year of 2024, showcasing both significant achievements and areas for consideration.
• The company’s financial performance exceeded its guidance across key metrics, reflecting robust growth despite challenging comparisons to prior periods.
• On the positive side, Roblox posted a 32% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4, reaching $988 million, exceeding the high end of its guidance.

• SailPoint, a Thoma Bravo-backed provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, priced its IPO at $23.00/share and raised $1B+.
• The offering was 20+ times oversubscribed, according to Bloomberg. However, shares fell as much as ~4% on the first day of trading.
• I think the stock was fairly valued vs. peers given 20%+ growth rates at scale. Surprisingly, the company boosted its initial price range and priced IPO at top of range.

• Revenue decreased by 22.5% YoY to JPY8.3bn, with Japan’s revenue down 38.0% YoY and overseas down 6.9% YoY.
• Operating loss was JPY1.3bn, with cost-control measures curbing deficit expansion despite decreased sales and gross profit.
• FY12/25 earnings forecast undisclosed due to uncertainty in EA SPORTS FC™ TACTICAL project; focus on title development.

• In this edition: • KPN | Tower Company joint venture with ABP will start its operations today • Unilever | Ice Cream unit to be listed in Amsterdam, London and New York • SBM Offshore | Guyana offshore oil projects recovering investments quickly • Odido | current shareholders are exploring options; IPO possibly in 1H24

• Nebius Group NV purchased assets from oligarchs at a deep discount to become owners of the “new” Yandex
• Value of NBIS is currently uncertain but there is potential for significant upside as they rebuild the business
• Author sees NBIS as a promising opportunity but urges further discussion and analysis before investing

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• The latest financial earnings report for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. presents a balanced outlook on the company’s operations and future growth prospects.
• The company reported net bookings of $1.37 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, in line with its guidance range.
• Significant strength was noted in NBA 2K, pushing net bookings within expectations despite some moderation in mobile franchises.

• Trend Micro Inc. (4704 JP) shares have hit their daily trade limit, following a Reuters report that Bain, Advent, KKR, and EQT AB are potential bidders. 
• The lack of a controlling shareholder and increased cybersecurity M&A activity support the buyout interest. In 4Q2024, cybersecurity M&A reached the highest quarterly volume in the past three years.
• The valuation is undemanding. If it trades in line with its median peers’ CY2024 EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiple, it implies JPY11,500-15,000, a 6%- 38% premium to the current price. 

• Another Japanese smallcap takeover at a huge premium. Must be a day ending in “y.” It is a thing recently. 
• Interestingly, this is NOT an MBO. It is an LBO. Carlyle is buying out Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) at ¥4,380/share which is 19x book and 89x EBIT. Nice price.
• I expect this gets done easily because the co-CEO with 28.7% and Recruit with 20.6% are putting in. There’s another easy 9.7%. One more holder and this is done.

• Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle Group / (CG US) at JPY4,380, a 121.2% premium to the last close.
• The offer is attractive due to the high takeover premium, being materially above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and representing a four-year high.
• This is a done deal, as the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. The tender offer is from 14 February to 31 March (30 business days).

• The FSS will review the subsidiary approval, with final approval expected from the FSC by early April. Market signals suggest a near-100% chance of Samsung Life getting the green light.
• Samsung’s moves post-Lee Jae-yong’s Feb 3rd ruling signal a major pivot, setting up aggressive value-up plays across Samsung Life, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung C&T.
• Shoring up Samsung Life’s finances triggers a domino effect, positioning Samsung Electronics and Samsung C&T to follow with their own shareholder-friendly moves.

• 4Q24 IC ATM sales recorded NT$162bn, up 1% QoQ, GM: 16.4%, down 0.1% QoQ. EMS sales were NT$74.9bn, down 1% QoQ mainly due to seasonality. 
• 1Q25 EMS sales will decline slightly YoY, and OPM is down 0.13ppts YoY. IC-ATM sales will decline mid-single-digits QoQ and GM is down slightly more than 1% QoQ.
• Believes it will bring upside from new US BIS policy to ban non-listed OSAT vendors (especially China vendors) to produce US-related chip, but can’t quantify at this moment.

• Revenue rose 37.5% YoY and 9% QoQ, boosted by Decision Point contributions and a major deal win.
• Robust growth in revenue and EBITDA underscores Latent View’s ability to secure strategic client wins, strengthening its competitive edge in data analytics.
• Company is tracking towards its $ 100-110 Mn, where they have plan to reach upto $200 Mn in next 3 years.

• SailPoint traded below the issue price for the majority of its first trading session and hit a low of $20.77 before rebounding to a $22.00 print at the close 
• The deal was more than 20-times oversubscribed and upsized its price range while on the road prior to pricing which makes the underperformance even more bizarre. 
• Given the overhang of the underperforming IPO, we will be downgrading our 30-day forecast.

• Revenue reached JPY13.6bn (+8.4% YoY) with operating profit at JPY1.4bn (-18.6% YoY) and recurring profit at JPY1.5bn (-36.2% YoY).
• Number of recurring revenue customers totaled 131 (+8.3% YoY), with enterprise customers at 53 (+29.3% YoY) and SMB customers at 78 (-2.5% YoY).
• Creative & Engineering service line revenue was JPY11.6bn (+6.9% YoY), while Talent Platform service line revenue was JPY2.0bn (+18.2% YoY).

• Honda and Nissan cancel US$60 billion merger due to restructuring clashes, impacting future strategic moves by both companies.
• CXMT progresses to 16nm DRAM production and shifts focus to 15nm development for technological advances in the future.
• DeepSeek emerges as a strong AI player in China, intensifying competition for Apple in the technology market, while the US exit from the Paris Agreement raises concerns globally.

• Dye and Durham is a Canadian-listed real estate and business law service provider with a market cap of $1.3 billion
• Investigation into the company revealed issues such as misleading revenue pull forwards, high churn rates, and a significant drop in log-in traffic
• Former employees raised concerns about financials, governance issues, and unhappy customers with price increases, leading to a drop in market share.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.