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This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. NVIDIA. Burry’s Claims Miss The Forest For The Trees. The Real Issues Are Structural, Not Legal
- After taking short positions against Palantir & NVIDIA, Michael Burry has closed his hedge fund and taken to substack to continue his assault on the AI bubble
- While he makes some valid points, these are mainly things everybody already knows and in the end he’s missing the forest for the trees
- There are key structural issues surrounding the AI Infrastructure build out (grid, foundry, memory capacity to mention a few). These will drive course corrections, all by themselves.
2. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Retired Sr. VP Joins Intel; U.S. Fab Impact; Arizona Earnings Decline.
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) – ADR (TSM US)’s retired Senior Vice President Dr. Wei-Jen Lo has taken a position at Intel.
- Trump has been in power for less than a year, and the U.S.’s measures have fully revealed its purpose of confrontation between China and the United States.
- TSMC’s Arizona fab profit dropped from NT$4.32 billion in 2Q25 to NT$410 million in 3Q25.
3. Did The Elon & Jensen Clown Show Just Crater The AI Narrative?
- Maybe it’s 10, 20 years something like that. For me that’s long term. Um my prediction is that work will be optional.
- The evidence speaks for itself uh but but but AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty and Tesla won’t be the only one that makes them.
- There will still be constraints on power like electricity. The fundamental physics elements will still be constraints. Um but um I think at some point uh currency becomes irrelevant.
4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Back in Extreme Range, UMC Discount
- TSMC: +25.8% Premium; Rebounded to High End of Range, Good Level to Open a Short of the ADR Spread
- UMC: -2.2% Discount; Good Level to Open a Short of the ADR Spread
- ASE: +3.2% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short
5. PC Monitor: Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E
- AI PCs turning the PC refresh into a gradual, extended up-cycle
- Memory inflation is one of the major margin risks for PC makers in 2026
- Dell’s server business indicates AI factory build-outs becoming a multi-year investment cycle. Remain long Dell, Asustek, Acer.
6. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Rapidus Making Progress… TSMC Impact; Latest PC Results Support 2026E Up-Cycle
- Japan’s Rapidus Moves Ahead With 1.4nm Plans… TSMC Impact? — Latest and Past Analysis
- PC Monitor: Latest Dell/HP Results Support PC Up-Cycle Into 2026E
- TechChain Insights: Factory Visit with One of Taiwan’s Critical Battery Suppliers
7. TechChain Insights: Visit with Taiwan’s Critical Battery Supplier
- Factory visit to GUS Technology reveals Taiwan’s strategic position as a non-China battery supplier for defense and critical infrastructure applications.
- Proprietary pouch cell technology with patents in Taiwan and Japan addresses weight-sensitive applications including drones, underwater vehicles, and data center UPS systems.
- Dual product strategy (safety-focused Mettle Series and energy-dense Hyper Series) targets both commercial reliability and mission-critical performance markets.
8. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Spread Deeper in Historically Rare Zone
- TSMC: +27.1% Premium; Increased to More Historically Extreme Level; Deeper in Short Range
- UMC: +2.3% Premium; Good Level to Open a Short of The Spread
- ASE: +2.3% Premium; Wait Better Long Opportunity Near Parity or Below
9. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Rapidus Plans to Build a Second Fab to Begin 1.4nm Volume Production in 2029
- Rapidus is currently moving in parallel with TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) – ADR (TSM US) in targeting the 2nm, and is regarded as Japan’s core force in the advanced-process arena.
- Rapidus plans to build a second fab in Hokkaido in FY2027. The facility is scheduled to begin 1.4nm volume production in 2029 to accelerate the catch-up with global leader TSMC.
- During its mid-October earnings briefing, TSMC stated that 2nm will enter volume production as scheduled in 4Q this year, and that it will begin 1.4nm mass production in 2028.
10. Silicon Motion (SIMO US): Multiple Growth Drivers Converging Into 2026E
- Four growth drivers ramping simultaneously: PCIe5 targeting 40% market share, NAND makers increased outsourcing of controller design, automotive segment approaching 10% of revenue, and datacenter products approaching 5-10% of revenue.
- Near-Term catalysts compelling as memory supply tightness drives controller outsourcing and gross margins approach 49-50%.
- 19x 2026E PER represents good value if company hits targets. While stock carries market pullback risk, we nevertheless maintain our Structural Long rating due to multi-year growth in view.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. [Japan Offering] Bain Starting Kioxia (285A) Selldown; More to Come Soonish?
- After the close today, BCPE Pangea Cayman announced plans to sell a stake of 36mm shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in an overnight block. It trades tomorrow.
- This is 6.7% of shares out, 1.5x ADV. The discount is 7-9%. But it is 35% of Max Real World Float. And probably gets tradable shares to 34+%, not 35%.
- That means another offering is likely near-term. The lockup is only 30 days it appears. There is possibly a fair bit of long-dated index demand.
2. [Japan Offering] Toyota Selling Down Toyoda Gosei (7282) In BIG Offering; 85d ADV, 125% of Max RWF
- Last week, before the long weekend, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) announced a very big secondary selldown of shares in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
- The selldown is 85x 3mo ADV, 27% of shares out. 125% of Max Real World Float. It’s a lot of stock at $750mm. One wonders where demand is.
- They also announced a big buyback, which is some of it, and there are index impacts, BUT this offering needs to find LOTS of new fundamental owners quickly.
3. Kioxia (285A JP): Bain’s US$2.1 Billion Selldown
- Bloomberg reports that Bain Capital is selling 36.0 million Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) shares through a block trade. IFR reports that the offering is worth up to JPY330 billion (US$2.1 billion).
- The offering is unsurprising given the shares are up around 7x since the IPO. The offering is easily digestible as it represents 2.7 days of the average ADV since listing.
- Kioxia is anticipated to return to growth in 3Q, and the underlying margin is recovering from recent lows. However, Kioxia’s EV/EBITDA multiple is full compared to peers and historical ranges.
4. [Japan Offering] Dear Life (3245 JP) – Unusual Offer Dynamics Are Bullish Despite Dilution
- Today after the close, Tokyo-based Dear Life (3245 JP) announced a primary offering to raise approximately ¥7bn through 15% dilution. Implying a 13+% price drop to protect PER.
- But the company plans on growing earnings. It has some projects in inventory, but it obviously plans a lot of turnover this year and needs to replenish.
- The MTMP “slogan” is “2028 – Ride the Wave!” This is a bit what investing in Tokyo real estate is like now. So one rides it until one doesn’t.
5. Kioxia Placement – US$2bn Deal, Relatively Small, Index Upweight but the Shares Have Runup
- Bain aims to raise around US$2bn via selling around 6% of its stake in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP). The IPO linked lockup on its shareholding had expired in Jun 2025.
- Kioxia is a manufacturer and a global leader in flash memory and solid state drives for smartphones, PCs, enterprise servers and data centers.
- In this note, we will talk about deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
6. Suzhou Novosense A/H Listing – Growth Has Been Strong but Margins Weak
- Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH), an analog chips producer, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
- According to Frost & Sullivan, in terms of revenue from analog chips in 2024, SNM ranked fifth among Chinese analog chip companies in the Chinese analog chip market.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
7. Jingdong Industrials (JDI) IPO: The Investment Case
- JD Industrial Technology (2231713D CH), a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China, is seeking to raise US$500 million.
- JDI is the largest industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV, customer coverage and SKU offerings in 2024, according to CIC.
- The investment case is bearish due to weak market share gains, declining product revenue growth, margin pressures, declining cash generation and factoring of receivables.
8. UltraGreen.ai IPO: High Growth and High Margins, Market Leader
- UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Singapore IPO.
- UltraGreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.
9. SBI Shinsei Bank Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuations
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing
- SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
- We have looked at past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.
10. Hong Kong: IPO SPOTLIGHT – OVERVIEW 2025
- Hong Kong is the top global destination for IPOs in 2025, with over HK $280 billion raised so far. Large scale A+H dual listings have surged this year.
- Technology and healthcare sectors have dominated IPOs with the materials sector also floating several large listings. With nearly 300 listings in the pipeline, 2026 should be another banner year.
- Zijin Gold (2259 HK) , Chery Automobile (9973 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) were the largest IPOs of the year while PegBio (2565 HK) has had the best return.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
- Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
- The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
- Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.
2. Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
- In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.
3. National Storage REIT (NSR AU) In Trading Halt Ahead Of Possible Brookfield/GIC Tilt
- Reportedly, Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC will make an Offer for National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Australia and New Zealand’s largest landlord of self-storage sites .
- The AFR is reporting that Brookfield/GIC are on the cusp of launching a bid around NTA. NSR entered into a trading halt this morning.
- Earlier this year, key peer Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) fielded an NBIO from Ki Corporation/Public Storage (PSA US) at a ~3% premium to NTA; however, Ki/PSA ultimately walked.
4. Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
- Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
- That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
- Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.
5. [Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
- Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
- That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
- There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.
6. Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs
- Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; <100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.
- The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.
- Companies >5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.
7. A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management
- After the market close on 24 November, it was announced that Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS).
- Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than current price). Tender offer amount is 44.7 billion won.
- If Align Partners successfully completes this tender offer, its stake would rise to 19.03%. Plus, the combined stakes of Align Partners and Miri Capital would be 42.99%.
8. HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 21 Nov 2025) – BIG Net Buy on Lower Gross Flows. BABA Bought
- HK$100bn a day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity with US$600mm+ of net buying on average. Net flows continue to be impressive. SOEs/Energy/Financials dominate.
- Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could up the pace of things.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
9. [Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%
- Today late in the afternoon session, the Nikkei reported that the MBO price would be bumped by “about 30%”. The stock popped 4.6%.
- Post-Close, the deal is bumped from ¥1,960 to ¥2,520 (+29%). Activist holders Murakami Group with 21.4% and Hibiki Path Advisors with 5.5% have agreed to tender.
- With the two main activists publicly engaged now agreed to tender, this looks like a done deal.
10. [Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint
- Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP).
- SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo’s ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
- Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER…. SilverCape’s CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But…
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Xiaomi (1810 HK): Top Trades Bet on a Bullish Trend Reversal
- Context: Over the past five trading days, Xiaomi (1810 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Highlights: 55% of strategies exhibit a bullish bias, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
2. SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: Extremely Oversold After -11% Plunge
- Softbank Group (9984 JP) crashed nearly -11% between Thursday and Friday close, reaching deeply oversold extremes.
- Softbank Group has declined for three consecutive weeks, posting a cumulative -37% correction over this period.
- Softbank Group‘s entry into the Outliers zone suggests an extreme oversold condition—potentially creating a tactical long setup for risk-tolerant traders.
3. ALIBABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Option Market Expectations and Post-Release Price Behavior
- Alibaba will announce Q2 earnings on after the market close (HK time) November 25.
- Earnings implied jump pricing is similar to the last release, but recent downside skew in past Q2 moves highlights why traders may focus more on potential weakness.
- Recent market patterns, including muted reactions to beats and sharp responses to misses, add weight to risks around Baba’s earnings day move.
4. Comparing the Singapore Next 50 to Its Regional Peers: An Asia Portfolio Context
- This insight compares the iEdge Singapore Next 50 Index with regional next-tier indices, focusing on methodology, sector composition, and historical performance.
- Combining flagship and next-tier indices can broaden sector exposure and balance within an Asia-focused equity portfolio.
- A volatility-driven allocation strategy is presented, showing that dynamic mid-cap exposure can help moderate drawdowns and enhance returns during market cycles.
5. GOLD Tactical Outlook: Profit Targets for December 2025
- Gold (GOLD COMDTY) this week has resumed its uptrend after a brief, shallow setback in mid-November.
- This insight will analyze our Gold Futures Dec 25 model to determine profit targets that could be reached in the next 3 weeks (in December 2025).
- Range: Gold could reach again previous highs, in December, while if it goes down it could reach the 3933 support zone.
6. Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Nov 24 – Nov 28)
- A tactical snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
- Many Asian stocks we track are flashing very oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considering.
- We find no overbought stocks or indices in Asia at present. US equities are aligned with this view, this is a global market pullback, probably about to end.
7. TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook After November’s Pullback: Further Downside Risk Remains
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) delivered stellar returns this year, but after peaking in early November and pulling back all month, we see downside risk persisting.
- We hypothesize the current rally may be a bear rally. If correct, our models indicate TSMC has nearly depleted this rebound and downside risk looms.
- If we are wrong, TSMC could continue this rally to 1483-1581, the details as always are discussed in the insight.
8. Tencent (700 HK): Top Option Trades Reveal a Split in Market Sentiment
- Context: Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Highlights: Market sentiment is evenly balanced between bullish and bearish strategies, with diagonal spreads accounting for 25% of all trades.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
9. A Global Portfolio Inflation-Stagflation Hedge: Gold and NK Index Volatility
- Gold’s outlook is strongly supported by a dovish Federal Reserve, structural de-dollarization trends, and increasing central bank demand for a strategic stagflation hedge.
- The Nikkei 225’s high is vulnerable to concentrated risk in the technology sector and geopolitical volatility, necessitating a tactical approach to portfolio protection.
- Deep dive into a two-part portfolio-defensive structure, pairing a strategic long-term inflation asset with a short-term volatility hedge on a key equity index.
10. CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook After Nov. 28 Rebalance Announcement
- On November 28th China Securities Index Co (CSI) announced the changes to the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX): 11 companies added and 11 deleted.
- The complete list of additions and deletions is available here (or see the attachment at the end of this insight for your convenience).
- We analyze our probabilistic models to forecast short-term market directions for the CSI 300 Index, as passive flows between here and December 12 may affect the index volatility and trend.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK Backloads A Tax Trap
- The UK’s fiscal hole was even smaller than we thought (£6bn), allowing the government to backload a fiscal tightening that is unsurprisingly focused on tax increases.
- Delaying prudence to an election year is implausible. There will be a substantial deficit in 2029-30, not the current budget surplus in the OBR forecasts based on existing policy.
- Labour is setting up a tax trap for Reform and the Conservatives to say how they’d avoid tax increases, similar to the backloaded spending cuts they myopically ignored in 2024.
2. UK Labour Party: Damned If They Do…
- Whatever Rachel Reeves comes up with in her 26 November budget, she is bound to run into criticism from within her own parliamentary party.
- Bond markets seem set to react badly to this, especially if it seems likely that her overall objectives will be undermined by internal resistance to proposed measures.
- She and the PM will probably survive this, but a market-unsettling change and slide to the left look increasingly likely by mid-2026, followed by defeat at the next election.
3. US Market: WALK TO THE EXIT NOW BEFORE EVERYONE STARTS RUNNING!
- The US market is weakening again as an interday reversal after Nvidia results foreshadows continued selling in the AI theme. Market breadth is weakening and stocks at 52-week lows surging.
- Volatility has reached levels last seen during the tariff tantrum in April. Insider sales of Nvidia have surged since June. Private credit and private equity markets are showing stress.
- US consumption has narrowed and is highly dependent on stock market gains. Household debt levels are at new highs, and consumer sentiment is lower than during the GFC in 2008/09.
4. Overview #42 – What a Difference a Day Makes!
- A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
- US interest rate expectations continue to whip markets around, even as more cracks emerge in the AI trade.
- Japan goes for broke with its latest budget and debt issuance.
5. HEW: Slow Shovels
- UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.
- European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.
- Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.
6. 241: Europe’s Economic Comeback: What It Will Take for a Broad Resurgence
- Europe is experiencing an air of optimism in 2025 due to more flexible fiscal policy and increased government spending on infrastructure and defense.
- European defense companies and banks have seen significant growth year to date, indicating potential for further investment opportunities.
- Challenges to Europe’s long-term competitiveness include an aging workforce and underdeveloped capital markets, but progress is being made in areas such as harmonizing tax rules and increasing efficiency in capital markets.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
7. The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 27)
- Hong Kong market continues to consolidate during the early stage of its Secular Bull Market. Strength and momentum indicators show further weakness ahead.
- Materials and healthcare sectors have lost momentum with other sectors trendless. Analysts target 20% price gains in materials sector over the next year.
- China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK) shares fell on Thursday on concerns over the insurer’s estimated HK$2.6B exposure to a HK residential project at the center of a deadly fire.
8. How to Trade the AI Panic
- The recent market pullback may have been attributable to a combination of breadth deterioration and a highly bifurcated market.
- In the short term, technical price action and sentiment have become stretched to the downside that a bounce is more or less inevitable.
- We continue to believe stock prices will rally into year-end, but we are watching for signs of a bullish follow-through after the reflex rally for confirmation.
9. Japan Is at a Policy Crossroads, Yen Offers a Guide
- BOJ minutes from the October meeting show 8 of 13 members backing near-term hikes, raising odds of tightening in December–January as wage negotiations strengthen.
- Japan’s JPY 21.3T fiscal package and rising JGB yields highlight a growing policy clash, pushing the yen toward the prior 160 intervention zone.
- Historical patterns of rapid yen reversals indicate that a BOJ hike alongside emerging Fed cut expectations materially increases the probability of a near-term yen appreciation.
10. Japan: CAN TAKAICHI SURVIVE THE COMING TSUNAMI?
- Prime Minister Takaichi started a firestorm with her comments about attacking China over the Taiwan issue. Japan’s missile deployment near Taiwan further inflamed the situation.
- President Xi called President Trump on the matter, and Trump followed up with a call to Takaichi soon after. Takaichi’s miscalculation in provoking China may have led to U.S. concessions.
- PM Takaichi’s fiscally reckless budget is adding fuel to a fire as the yen, JGBs, and stock market are falling simultaneously. Inflation, currently at 3% is rising again.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?
- Fresh on the heels of his podcast meltdown, Mr. Altman has had to scramble to walk back his CFO’s assertion that a potential federal bailout was on her agenda.
- One of Mr. Altman’s revenue generating ideas is to lease AI compute directly to others. Of course, that’s compute capacity he can’t afford to purchase in the first place.
- Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That’s a strategy that rarely ends well. Let’s see..
2. Microsoft. Acting Like There’s An AI Bubble Without Saying There’s An AI Bubble
- Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off “fungible” compute strategy
- Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, “jagged” intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth
- Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.
3. NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers
- NVIDIA’s AI Factory Buildout Signals Multi-Year Demand for Taiwan’s Supply Chain
- TSMC’s Growth Outlook De-Risked by NVIDIA’s Smooth Transition to GB300
- NVIDIA’s Networking Segment Surge Expands System-Level Product Integration Opportunity for Taiwan Ecosystem
4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: NVDA Results- Taiwan Supplier Winners; Silicon Valley’s Substrate- TSMC Slayer?
- NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways — Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers
- NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive
- Silicon Valley’s Substrate — ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?
5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premiums Near Spead Short Levels
- TSMC: 24.5% Premium; Near Level to Open Fresh Short of ADR Spread
- ASE: +5.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Spread
- ChipMOS: -1.7% Discount; Near Discount Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
6. IHI (7013 JP): Orders and Profits Headed Up, Share Price Down
- Sales and operating profit declined YoY in 1H, but new orders were up 17.5% and the book-to-bill ratio rose from 1.00 to 1.25. anagement has raised full-year guidance.
- Aerospace & Defense continue to lead growth, with nuclear energy and Asian EPC making significant contributions to new orders and the restructuring of Industrial Systems & Machinery boosting operating profit.
- Share price down 15% in two weeks to 23x FY Mar-26 EPS guidance. Once again a reasonably valued investment in Japan’s rising defense budget and corporate restructuring.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
- In December 2021, Shinsei Bank was privatised by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) through a contentious tender offer at JPY2,800 per share.
- The investment case rests on growth in accounts/deposits, robust loan book growth, accelerating revenue growth, rising margins and improving asset quality.
2. [Japan Offering] DAIHEN Corp (6622 JP) Sees Crossholders Selling 25% of Max Real World Float
- Yesterday saw the announcement of a secondary offering structured like a delayed pricing ABO.
- 1.5mm shares which is 7.5% of shares out, 25% of Max Real World Float, and 9 days of ADV. There’s more cross-holdings to come out later at some point.
- Though it is not particularly expensive, Momentum is not this stock’s friend right now.
3. Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP): A US$0.8 Billion Secondary Offering
- Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 29.7 million shares (34.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$0.7 billion (US$0.8 billion including overallotment).
- Toyoda Gosei’s primary goal with the secondary offering is to reduce Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s shareholding to around 20% of outstanding shares.
- The offering as a percentage of outstanding shares and ADV is large compared to recent large placements. The likely pricing date is 1 December.
4. SBI Shinsei Bank Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Been Growing Well Since SBI Group Took Control
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing.
- SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
- In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.
5. China Hongqiao Placement: Good Valuation but Likely Opportunistic, on the Back of Chuangxin Listing
- China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn from a primary placement.
- This represents 9.1 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 2.9% of total shares outstanding.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
6. SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, is looking to relist by raising about US$2 billion. The primary/secondary split is 40%/60%.
- I discussed the investment thesis in SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: The Investment Case.
- In this note, I discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that SBI Shinsei is fairly valued at the IPO price of JPY1,440 per share.
7. Toyoda Gosei Placement – Somewhat Expected but Relatively Large with Delayed Buyback
- Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP) plan to raise around US$700m via selling down some of their stake in Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP).
- The deal is a large one to digest at over 20% of the company and 90 days of ADV.
- In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.
8. UltraGreen.ai Pre-IPO: Strong Financials Despite Misleading Branding
- UltraGreen.AI (2594794D SP) is looking to raise US$400m in its upcoming Singapore IPO.
- Ultragreen is a global leader in Fluorescence Guided Surgery (FGS), a surgical approach that helps doctors see things inside the body that are normally invisible under regular white light.
- In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.
9. Chuangxin Pre-IPO: Increasing Exposure to Volatile Alumina; Offered at Premium to Peers
- Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
10. SBI Shinsei Bank Pre-IPO – The Negatives – PAT Growth Aided by One-Offs, Margins Under Pressure
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), a Japanese financial institution, aims to raise around US$2bn in its Japan listing.
- SBI Shinsei Bank (SBISB) is a Japanese financial institution providing a range of financial products and services to both individual and institutional customers.
- In this note we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. [Japan Activism/M&A] Thinking About the Partial Tender Trade Coming in Dec25
- A month ago I wrote [Japan Activism/M&A] – Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender – Likely Needs To Be Higher. Now we are <2wks to the deal.
- At the time, I said the Partial Tender Offer Price needed to be higher than the mooted ¥2,280. Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shares are up 10.0% in that month.
- The three largest peers are -2.0% on average in that period. The average of 8 peers is +0.5%. I still expect the partial offer price needs to be near ¥3,100
2. China Hongqiao (1378 HK): Index Impact of US$1.2bn Placement
- China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is looking to raise US$1.2bn via a top-up placement at an indicative price of HK$29.2/share, a 9.6% discount from the last close.
- There will be limited passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares. However, there are a couple of potential index inclusions in December.
- Then there will be more passive buying from trackers of a global index, Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) next year.
3. CATL IPO Lockup – US$5.3bn Lockup Release, with H-Shares at Significant Premium to A-Shares
- CATL (3750 HK) raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
- CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
4. SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
- At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
- The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.
5. [Japan Activism/M&A] Hakuhodo DY Lowers Digital Holdings (2389 JP) TOB Threshold, Bumps a Tiny 2.2%
- Today after the close, Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) announced changes to the terms of its Tender Offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP), which faces an overbidder in SilverCape.
- Hakuhodo had bid ¥1,970. Silvercape came over the top with a proposed ¥2,380 but a delay for approvals. DH is fighting against SilverCape because of “remaining minority shareholder risk.”
- That’s garbage. Utter blatherskite. Trumpworthy trumpery. Now Hakuhodo DY has lowered the minimum threshold making it hard to miss, and raised the price 2.3% to ¥2,015.
6. Alibaba (9988 HK / BABA US): Brace for a Big Earnings Move
- Alibaba (9988 HK) / Alibaba (BABA US) will announce quarterly results on Tuesday, November 25, 8:30 p.m. HKT (7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time)
- Options markets anticipate an above average move with a bearish bias in traders’ expectations. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly after the event.
- Get ready for Alibaba‘s earnings announcement. Potential above-average volatility in Alibaba has the potential to impact the wider market and Chinese benchmark indices.
7. Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).
8. Grindr (GRND US)’s Wide Spread As Majority Owners Court Delisting
- Back on the 24th October, Ray Zage (director) and James Lu (chairman), collectively holding ~60% in Grindr (GRND US), proposed to take the company private in a US$3.5bn deal.
- The non-binding cash Offer of $18/share, is a 51% premium to undisturbed. A condition to a firm Offer may incorporate a majority of minority vote.
- While the Special Committee considers the proposal, James Lu has unusually opted to step down. Currently trading at a ~30% gross spread to indicative terms.
9. Tsuruha-Welcia Merger to Form Biggest Drugstore Alliance, +Aeon TOB
- The Tsuruha-Welcia merger creates Japan’s largest drugstore alliance, poised for long-term growth and market dominance, driven by an expected JPY 50B in synergies over three years.
- A two-step corporate action—share exchange (Dec 1, 2025) followed by an Aeon TOB—provides structural certainty and strategic backing, securing the combined entity’s market leadership.
- These catalysts establish a large market leader in the consumer staples space, suggesting a timely opportunity to gain exposure to the new entity.
10. Webjet (WJL AU): Helloworld Steps Up As Weiss/BGH Seek Board Spill
- In Webjet (WJL AU): Undisclosed Buyer Buying, rumours surfaced earlier this year of an undisclosed buyer with ~5%. On the 12th May, Helloworld (HLO AU) emerged with a 5.015% stake.
- On the same day, Gary Weiss/BGH, collectively holding 10.76%, launched a A$0.80/share NBIO, which was subsequently rejected. Undeterred, Weiss/BGH has called for an EGM (21st November) to spill the board.
- Helloworld has now tabled a A$0.90/share non-binding Offer, by way of Scheme. The 1H26 dividend of A$0.002/share will be added. Helloworld currently holds 17.27%. Weiss/BGH hold 17.75%.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. HSI INDEX Tactical Outlook Ahead of December 6 Rebalance
- As Brian Freitas recently outlined, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) changes will be announced November 21st (this Friday) and take effect on December 6th.
- Brian predicted index additions and no deletions. As with all rebalances, inflows, outflows, and adjustments could trigger volatility. Our models, trained on decades of market data, help forecast these moves.
- Currently the HSI INDEX is in a mild WEEKLY correction, after a previous modest 2-week rally. We are still waiting for a meaningful correction, after the recent monster rally.
2. S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Ahead of Dec25 Index Rebalance
- November 21st marks the close of the review period for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) December rebalance. Changes will be announced on December 5th.
- Implementation of changes begins December 19th, read Brian Freitas‘ recent insight to learn about the 7 possible modifications to the ASX 200.
- Passive tracker flows can significantly move markets around index rebalance dates. In this insight, we leverage our models to identify critical support and resistance zone (the index is very OVERSOLD).
3. NVIDIA’s $500B Order Book: Implications for Valuation, Option Strategies
- NVIDIA has secured unprecedented demand visibility with a reported USD 500 Billion order book for its next-gen AI chips, solidifying its position as the keystone of the AI industrial revolution.
- The company’s financial health highlighted by a USD 48.3 Billion net cash balance and strategic capital return, affirming confidence that structural growth will outweigh geopolitical risks.
- Following a period of short-term volatility and profit-taking, the confluence of long-term structural catalysts suggests the stock is poised to resume a higher trajectory and trading range.
4. The Nikkei Semiconductor Index Rebalance, Kioxia, Nikkei Volatility Hedge
- Kioxia set for inclusion in the Nikkei Semiconductor Index next week, alongside JX Advanced Metals, less than one day’s average daily volume in passive inflow at the close.
- Kioxia’s Q2 2025 results show an accelerating QoQ recovery and solid Q3 2025 forecasts, driven by high demand from data center and smart device products, confirming effective business structure reform.
- Stock is fairly valued after 2025 rally, potential weaknesses being value metrics such as P/E alongside execution of margin and product pipeline targets.
5. Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Nov 17 – Nov 21)
- A tactical snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
- Multiple Asian stocks we track are flashing oversold signals—creating tactical long setups worth considerin.
- We find no overbought stocks or indices in Asia at present. US equities show the same pattern, indicating a synchronized global market pullback
6. Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook After Japan’s Economy Contracts on Tariff Hit
- Japan’s Q3 GDP shrank 1.8% vs forecast 2.5% (annualised), while consumption slowed to 0.1%. This is the first contraction in six quarter.
- The cause is the drop in exports in the face of U.S. tariffs, automakers in particular plummeted, following a period of hiking exports before tariffs came into effect.
- We’ve consistently flagged the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as overbought. This tactical short-term analysis pinpoints critical support (and resistance, but we think the index may fall).
7. BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls
- Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue BYD (1211 HK) is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.
- Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.
- Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.
8. 4-Hour Contagion: NVIDIA Q3, Advantest, the AI Flow Footprint on the Global Synchronized Selloff
- Performance was in line with estimates, with total revenue of $57.01B and an expanding Non-GAAP Gross Margin of 73.6%. Management issued robust Q4 revenue guidance of $65B.
- Despite strong fundamentals, the stock’s muted reaction and subsequent slide highlight the risk of unusual, synchronized cross-asset market drops, signaling a need to examine, and hedge against potential systemic vulnerability.
- The synchronized cross-asset market drop on November 20, lacking a clear catalyst, suggests hidden systemic risk driven in part by algorithmic positioning.
9. JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment
- Context: Over the past few trading days, JD.com (9618 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Highlights: Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon, with approximately 40% of all strategies employing weekly options. Bearish views dominate with almost 70% of strategies being put spreads.
- Why read: This Insight breaks down complex option strategies and sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
10. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Nov 17 – 21): Breadth Collapses, Put Volumes Rise
- Broad declines set a cautious tone as only a handful of single stocks avoided losses last week amid rising option volumes.
- Market breadth deteriorated sharply, marking the weakest showing of the past year and highlighting the pressure across Hong Kong equities.
- We highlight companies reporting next week in what shapes up as a busy week ahead with Baba and Meituan both reporting.