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Jun 01
0

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – Jun 1, 2025

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. NVIDIA’s China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies & landing in Taiwan. 
  • He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
  • NVIDIA’s market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.

2. Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist…

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
  • Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
  • The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. 

3. NVIDIA Q126. China Restrictions Bring QoQ Growth Screeching To A Halt

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • NVIDIA reported Q1FY26 revenues of $44.1 billion, up 69% YoY and up 12% QoQ
  • NVIDIA forecasted current quarter revenues of $45.0 billion, marginally up QoQ and weighed down by the loss of around $8 billion in previously anticipated H20 revenues
  • Does China really wish to remain reliant on US infrastructure/platforms for its AI build out indefinitely? I think not. Gradually losing China market was inevitable, even without US restrictions.

4. Latest US Restrictions On EDA Sales To China Tanks CDNS, SNPS

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • CDNS, SNPS each fall >10% on the back of further US restrictions on sale to China
  • Both of their China revenues were around 10% in the most recent quarter, albeit in the case of CDNS, it was 15% in the year ago quarter
  • China’s domestic EDA ecosystem has grown significantly in recent years. These latest restrictions, if fully implemented, will simply serve to further accelerate its development

5. Silergy (6415.TT): Annual Growth Could Be Lower Than Earlier Expectation Of 20-25%.

By Patrick Liao

  • Looking ahead to the second quarter, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) did not provide specific guidance targets but emphasized that uncertainty in customers’ decisions regarding chip production locations could impact seasonal demand.  
  • Despite short-term challenges, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) still anticipates 2025 to be a year of growth.  
  • In terms of profitability, Silergy Corp (6415 TT) expects that capacity at Chinese foundries will approach full utilization, leading to supply chain tightness and helping maintain stable gross margins.

6. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Rises Further, to Short Level; UMC Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +22% Premium; Consider Shorting ADR Spread at Current Level
  • UMC: -1.4% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Discount Before Going Long the Spread
  • CHT: +0.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting the Premium at This Level or Higher

7. GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead.

By Patrick Liao

  • Globalwafers (6488 TT) held its shareholders’ meeting yesterday (May 26th).  
  • Regarding the U.S. market, Globalwafers (6488 TT) noted that the U.S. government will impose tariffs on imported products, although the specific rates are still unknown.  
  • Regarding the overall market conditions, the 12-inch silicon wafer market is currently performing significantly better than the 8-inch market, with higher utilization rates.  

8. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Google’s Pixel Going All-In on TSMC; TSMC 2025 Symposium Key Take-Aways

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Google’s Pixel Chips to Go All-In on TSMC After Using Samsung Foundry Previously
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today. 
  • GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Shareholders’ Meeting Held; US Tariff Effects Pending; SiC Chances Ahead. 

9. PC Monitor: Commercial PC Demand Resilient; AI PC Momentum Builds W/ NVDA Blackwell-Powered Launches

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • HP Results Show Commercial PC Growth is Resilient, AI PC Penetration Expanding
  • Key Industry Outlook Perspective — HP’s ZGX AI Station with NVIDIA Chips Marks the True Arrival of AI PCs… Locally Run LLMs Signal a Step-Change for PC Capabilities
  • Remain Structurally Long PC Makers on AI PC Upgrade Cycle — Emergence of New NVIDIA Blackwell-Powered Workstations Clarifying the Path for AI PCs to Deliver Step-Change Improvements in Value
Jun 01
0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – Jun 1, 2025

By | Equity Capital Markets
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. Schloss Bangalore IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah, Aequitas Research

  • Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$409m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$600m.
  • It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
  • In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

2. Curator’s Cut: Korea’s Value, CATL’s Charge and Copper’s Surge

By Pranav Rao, Smartkarma

  • Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
  • In this cut, we look at Korea’s compelling valuation versus AxJ equities, CATL’s blockbuster Hong Kong listing and its market implications, and explore copper’s price surge amidst Chinese demand
  • Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next

3. [Japan ECM] Financial Crossholders Offering Isuzu (7202) – Big Buyback Covers Most Of The Back End

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • In line with the trend of financial institutions led by non-life insurers selling out of their cross-holdings, today we get an offering of shares held in Isuzu Motors (7202 JP). 
  • Today we got an announcement of 29.28mm shares being offered by a dozen financial institutions and a greenshoe for 15% more. At a 10% discount from here it’s ¥57bn/US$400mm.
  • It is 16 days of ADV, which is big, but the company also announced a ¥50bn buyback from Pricing+6 to end of March 2026. That should stabilise things.

4. HK Strategy: Some Consumer IPO Pipelines and Their Proxies

By Osbert Tang, CFA

5. Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Another US$800m+ Deal by Co-Founder

By Akshat Shah, Aequitas Research

  • InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)‘s co-founder, Rakesh Gangwal, aims to raise around US$803m via selling around a 3.3% stake in Indigo.  
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with his co-founder Rahul Bhatia. He has sold many times before.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

6. Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH), a leading Chinese pharmaceutical company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$1 billion.     
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (FHF HK) has been China’s leading condiments company in terms of sales volume for 28 consecutive years.
  • The investment case rests on its market positioning, return to growth, industry-leading profitability, cash generation and strong balance sheet. However, the valuation of the A Shares is full.

7. Isuzu Motors Placement – Relatively Small Deal Along with Buyback

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$380m via selling around 4% of Isuzu Motors (7202 JP).
  • Being another cross-shareholding unwind in Japan, it shouldn’t carry much negative connotations, in our view.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

8. Foshan Haitian Flavouring A/H Listing – PHIP Updates and Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) (FHCC), China’s leading condiments company, now aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • FHCC is China’s leading condiments company within its main product categories of soy sauce, oyster sauce, flavored sauce, specialty condiment products and other products.
  • We have looked at the past performance in our earlier note. In this note we talk about the PHIP updates and likely A/H premium.

9. ECM Weekly (26 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Eastroc, Haitian, Schloss, Aegis, Hyundai Marine, Pony

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

10. Capitaland Ascendas REIT Placement: DPU and NAV Accretive

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

  • CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR SP)  is looking to raise at least S$500M in a private placement, to fund the acquisition of some valuable properties. 
  • These acquisitions will expand the firm’s portfolio exposure to Singapore and data centers.
  • In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Jun 01
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – Jun 1, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion Today & Upcoming Index Flows

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. Then there will be passive buying at the close on 20 June.
  • The lock up expiry in April will result in large buying from trackers of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and HSIII Index in September.
  • The stock will also be added to another large global index, though the timing on inclusion is not certain at the moment.

2. Zomato/Eternal: The BIG Passive Selling Starts

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • Following shareholder approval of the proposal to reduce the Foreign Ownership Limit from 100% to 49.5%, NSDL has updated the FOL. This starts the process of passive selling in Zomato.
  • Passives will sell US$350m at the close on Tuesday. There is a low probability of more selling later in the week. There will be bigger selling in August.
  • The size of the selling in August and beyond will depend on what foreign investors do in the stock till the end of June. Watch the red flag/ breach list.

3. [Japan Activism/M&A] Taiyo Holdings (4626) Now an MBO Target? KKR and One More Bidding

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) has an interesting background, embroiled in a separate activist event via its equity affiliate sponsor Dic Corp (4631 JP), and recently an activist target itself. 
  • Today a Bloomberg article said KKR and one other PE fund had made acquisition proposals via TOB. Taiyo confirmed, establishing a Special Committee. A deal is months away, at earliest.
  • Shares shot up to limit up, opened briefly, then resumed at limit up. The question here and now is valuation. 

4. [Japan M&A] Makino Milling (6135) – MBK as White Knight Appears To Have Made a Binding Bid

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • In December, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) made an unsolicited bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Makino wanted more time. Nidec wanted to squeeze.  Makino proposed a poison pill.
  • Makino appeared to act slowly but white knight bidders were mooted in the media. Nidec launched, but apparently approvals may have been hard. They withdrew. Makino cancelled the poison pill. 
  • Shares fell sharply. Yesterday, they rose because it appears Effissimo owns 3%. Today, we got news post-close that MBK may be close to making an ¥11,000+ bid.

5. [Japan M&A] NTT To Buy Out SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163) At a HUGE Price for Minorities

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Late Nov-2024, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) was trading ¥2,900, weekly mag Bunshun scooped a possible NTT Docomo deal. The stock popped, I was skeptical. It popped more.
  • At Q3 earnings, NTT seemed to downplay the possibility saying they wouldn’t overpay. SBI Sumshin fell. Then fell some more. 
  • Today we get a deal whereby NTT buys out SBI Holdings (8473 JP)‘s 34% stake, and minorities, and partners with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. Then a side deal with SBI. 

6. Tsuruha (3391 JP)/Welcia (3141 JP): Vote Musings

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Leading proxies recommend that Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shareholders vote against the Tsuruha/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) merger on 26 May.
  • The share exchange terms favour Welcia over Tsuruha shareholders. The Tsuruha vote will be close but likely to be approved. Long Tsuruha is the trade, irrespective of the vote.  
  • For a vote pass, you are long synergies and a likely partial offer bump. For a fail, you are long an undemanding multiple and the optionality of a new bid.      

7. A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
  • It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

8. [Japan Activism/M&A] – Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger – Now It’s Partial Offer+Synergies

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • This morning the Nikkei reported shareholders of Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) approved their Merger. Activists opposed but it was going to be close at best.
  • As expected, Welcia shares popped, and the spread converged to 2% with Tsuruha falling back to just below ¥11,400. Some of this is unwind of speculative interest in Tsuruha.  
  • The new yuhos are out, which shows roughly where we stand (as of end-Feb, and some updates). Now the trade is NEWCO vs Aeon’s interest and NEWCO vs World.

9. NIFTY Index Outlook (With an Eye on Zomato’s Passive Selling Starting…)

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

10. [Quiddity Index] GMO (9449) Sub GMO Financial Gate (4051) Moves to TOPIX

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

Jun 01
0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Jun 1, 2025

By | Equity Derivatives
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Alibaba (9988 HK): Unpacking the Week’s Savvy Top Options Trades

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Popular Strategies: Over 35% of all strategies are Calendar or Diagonal Spreads. Bullish and bearish views prevail at equal rates, with very few market-neutral views expressed.
  • Top Trades: Some market participants were betting on a short term re-bound after the post-earnings drop. Others take a bearish view with finely calibrated medium-term hedges. Trade-examples are presented.

2. Alibaba (9988 HK): Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Implied Volatility Trends:Alibaba Group Holding’s (9988 HK) one-month implied volatility has significantly receded to the 37th percentile after its 15 May earnings, reflecting a substantial implied vola crush.
  • Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The implied volatility term structure is now slightly upward-sloping with longer-dated options commanding a small premium. Skew dynamics indicate cheaper puts.
  • Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is greatest in the June and September expiries. Short term strikes are concentrated near or at the money.

3. HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.
  • Consensus rating: predominantly “Buy” from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.
  • The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025.

4. CATL (3750.HK): Rich Vols, Strong Start, and a Tactical Hedge

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • CATL’s options debut in Hong Kong has been active, with strong Call interest and rising open interest suggesting early investor enthusiasm.
  • Implied vols are holding firm post-listing and appear rich —potentially justifiable given the trading dynamics and catalysts.
  • We recommend a tactical hedge structure that skews return favourably, targeting recent highs and protecting against downside drift.

5. China Mobile (941 HK) Poised for Pullback: A Tactical Low-Cost Options Play With High Upside

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • With a 5-week rally China Mobile (941 HK) is in overbought territory and quantitative models flag potential for a pullback.
  • Options may be underpricing the downside risk, creating an attractive opportunity to buy cheap options with high payoff potential.
  • This Insight outlines an option strategy combining quantitative signals with volatility analysis.

6. KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook After Index Rebalancing

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • Korea Exchange announced its KOSPI 200 rebalance changes on 27 May, Sanghyun Park and Douglas Kim wrote extensively about this, here we want to focus purely on the tactical strategy.
  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX pulled back last week, then surged on Monday and stagnated on Tuesday, the index has plenty of room to go higher according to our model.
  • According to our model, the number of rallies vastly offset the number of pullbacks when this pattern is encountered (=pullbacks are rare), this could be read as a bullish indication.

7. HSI Index Options Weekly (May 26-30): Choppy Tape, One Strike Rules Them All

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • HSI traded sideways for a third straight week as macro headlines swirled and tariffs turned internally litigious.
  • Volatility drifted lower, with 1M implied vol dropping below its 1-year median for the first time in months.
  • Call volumes were significantly higher led by one strike in particular.

8. All Eyes On Nvidia (NVDA US): Post-Earnings Outlook and Profit Targets

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • By the time this insight is published, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will have reported earnings. Our model does not rely on fundamentals or news, so the forecast is made in advance.
  • The stock pulled back last week, mild pullback, not oversold, ideally a buy-the-dip opportunity. Support targets: 123-112
  • If the stock rallies, the rally could last 3 weeks and reach 156. Read the detailed analysis in the insight.

9. Nifty Index Options Weekly (May 26 – 30): Rally Pauses, Vol Holds at Elevated Levels

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • Nifty had limited movement this week with the rally off the April low stalling out.
  • Elevated volatility metrics contrast with an otherwise quiet tape over the past week. We recommend taking some chips off the table, taking advantage of vol levels. 
  • Nifty has given up about 1/2 its outperformance vs the SP500 over the past couple of weeks. 

10. TLT – From Hedge to Risk Asset: Behavior Continues to Shift

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

  • TLT is showing signs of shifting behavior, no longer acting like a classic flight-to-quality asset.
  • One-Month implied vol sits above average, though not at extreme levels.
  • The evolving vol structure suggests caution for those expecting traditional bond market flight to quality behavior.
Jun 01
0

Entities 34501-34600

By | Entity Directory
Entity
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Schwab Fundamental Intl L/C (FNDF US, FNDF)
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Schwab Fundamental Intl S/C (FNDC US, FNDC)
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Schwab Fundamental U.S. Broad (FNDB US, FNDB.P, FNDB)
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Schwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company Index ETF (FNDX US, FNDX)
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Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small (FNDA US, FNDA)
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Schwab Intermediate-Term U.S. (SCHR US, SCHR)
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Schwab International Dividend (SCHY US, SCHY.P, SCHY)
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Schwab International Equity ET (SCHF US, SCHF.P, SCHF)
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Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF (SCHC US, SCHC)
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Schwab Long-Term Us Treasury (SCHQ US, SCHQ.P, SCHQ)
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Schwab Short-Term Us Treas (SCHO US, SCHO)
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Schwab Us Aggregate Bond Etf (SCHZ US, SCHZ)
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Schwab US Broad Market ETF (SCHB US, SCHB.P, SCHB)
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Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD US, SCHD.P, SCHD)
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Schwab US Large-Cap ETF (SCHX US, SCHX.P, SCHX)
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Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth E (SCHG US, SCHG.P, SCHG)
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Schwab Us Large-Cap Value (SCHV US, SCHV)
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Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF (SCHM US, SCHM)
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Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH US, SCHH)
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Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA US, SCHA.P, SCHA)
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Schwab US TIPS ETF (SCHP US, SCHP.P, SCHP)
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Schweiter Technologies Ag (SWTQ SW, SWTQ.S, SWTQ.SW)
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Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK, 6600.HK)
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Scicom (Msc) (SCIC MK, SCICOM, SCCM.KL, 0099.KL)
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SciDev (SDV AU, SDV.AX)
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Science (SAG LN, SAGS.L, SAG.L)
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Science 37 Holdings (SNCE US, SNCE.OQ, SNCE)
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Science Applications Inte (SAIC US, SAIC.N, SAIC)
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Science Arts Inc (4412 JP, 4412.T)
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Scienjoy Holding Corp (SJ US, SJ.OQ, SJ)
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Scientech Corp (3583 TT, 3583.TW)
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Scientex Bhd (SCI MK, SCIENTX, STIK.KL, 4731.KL)
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Scientific Games Corp A (SGMS US, SGMS.O, SGMS)
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SciGen Ltd (SIE AU, SIE.AX)
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Scigineer Inc (6031 JP, 6031.T)
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Scilex Holding (SCLX US, SCLX.OQ, SCLX)
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Scimee Sci & Tech (300425 CH, 300425.SZ)
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Scinex Corp (2376 JP, 2376.T)
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Scinopharm Taiwan (1789 TT, 1789.TW)
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Scintronix Corp (SCIN SP, T20.SI)
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Sci Pharmtech (4119 TT, 4119.TW)
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Sciplay Corporation (SCPL US, SCPL)
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Sciquest Inc (SQI US, SQI)
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SciSparc (SPRC US, SPRC.OQ, SPRC)
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Scisys Group PLC (SSY LN, SSY.L)
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Scivision Biotech (1786 TT, 1786.TW)
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Scivita Medical Technology (SMT HK)
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Scomi Energy Services (SES MK, SCOMIES, SCES.KL, 7045.KL)
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Scomi Engineering (SEB MK, SCOMIEN, SMNG.KL, 7366.KL)
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Scomi Group Bhd (SGB MK, SCOMI, SCOI.KL, 7158.KL)
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S Connect (096630 KS, A096630, 096630.KQ)
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Scooters India (SCTR IN, 505141, SCOO.BO, SCOOTER.BO)
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Scope Industries (SCP MK, SCOPE, SCPE.KL, 0028.KL)
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Scopus Biopharma (SCPS US, SCPS.PK, SCPS)
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Scorpion Minerals (SCN AU, SCN.AX)
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Scorpio Tankers (STNG US, STNG.N, STNG)
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Scorpius Holdings (SCPX US, SCPX.A, SCPX)
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May 25
0

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – May 25, 2025

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. Nvidia (NVDA.US): Jensen Delivers Keynote Speech at COMPUTEX Today; Confirm Offshore HQ Location

By Patrick Liao

  • NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang visited Taiwan to attend the COMPUTEX Taipei International Computer Exhibition.  
  • Meanwhile, NVIDIA continues expanding its workforce, recently opening over a thousand job vacancies globally.  
  • Throughout his speech, Huang repeatedly mentioned Taiwan. He opened with “Hello Taiwan,” noting that both of his parents were present in the audience, highlighting his personal connection to Taiwan.  

2. US Middle East AI Splurge. A Bold Move But Also A Curious Affair

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • AMD & NVIDIA both pocket deals to equip 500MW data centers in Saudi Arabia over the next 5 years. 
  • UAE announced plans to build 5GW of data centre capacity with local champion G42 leading the charge. Microsoft and Cerebras were notable by their absence last week. 
  • The Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue. 

3. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Provides Updates at 2025 Technology Symposium in Hsinchu Today.

By Patrick Liao

  • TSMC explained that the growing demand for autonomous driving technologies in smartphones, PCs, IoT devices, and the automotive industry is driving the development of its N4/N3 and N6RF process technologies.
  • TSMC announced that the A14 process, which will adopt the new NanoFlex Pro technology, is scheduled to begin production in 2028.
  • TSMC plans to launch CoWoS-L with 5.5x reticle size in 2026 and surpass current CoWoS limitations with 9.5x reticle size by 2027.

4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off — Nvidia CEO Unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer Investment

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • COMPUTEX 2025 Kicks Off — Nvidia CEO unveils Taiwan AI Supercomputer investment plan with Hon Hai, TSMC as key partners.
  • Nvidia Opens Up Ecosystem with new “NVLink Fusion” — A strategic move to cement long-term platform dominance.
  • PC Monitor — Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift 

5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Rebounds Back to Recent Highs; ChipMOS Premium at Extreme

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +19.2% Premium; Rebounded from Previous Lows, Consider Shorting ADR Spread at 20% or Higher
  • ASE: +6.0% Premium; Near Level to Go Short the ADR Spread
  • ChipMOS: +3.4% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Spread

6. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Xiaomi Launch “Surge O1” With 3nm.

By Patrick Liao

  • Xiaomi to launch strategic new products on the 22nd, including the new SoC chip “Surge O1”.
  • Xiaomi Surge O1 at a glance: benchmark scores suggest it’s a strong rival to MediaTek and Qualcomm.   
  • While Xiaomi has not confirmed the chip’s foundry partner,  we believe it is very likely manufactured by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US).  

7. AMD. Adding $6 Billion Buyback & Authorizing 78% Increase In Share Count. But Why?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Following its AGM on May 13 last, AMD announced a new $6 billion share repurchase program, despite still having $4 billion remaining on the previous buyback program
  • The AGM also approved a proposal to authorize a 78% increase in the company’s share count, from 2.25 billion to 4 billion shares
  • It’s a bold move on AMD’s part and it reawakens memories of the company’s acquisition of Xilinx back in 2022 in a $35 billion all stock deal. Deja vu ?

8. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC’s Arizona Subsidiary Sent a Letter in Response to the U.S. Authorities.

By Patrick Liao

  • The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (U.S. BIS) recently released a series of public consultations regarding Section 232 related to semiconductors.  
  • TSMC stated that any import measures should not create uncertainty for existing semiconductor investments.
  • Any measures taken by the U.S. government should not undermine the national security policy objectives of the U.S. government, including advanced semiconductor production at TSMC Arizona.

9. PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • ASUS beat 1Q25 expectations, but flagged tariff risks and a potential PC demand slowdown in 2H25 as consumers front-load purchases ahead of pricing uncertainty.
  • PC segment growth outperformed the market, led by >30% YoY gains in commercial PCs and strong momentum in AI-capable and gaming systems.
  • On-Device AI execution is emerging as the next PC evolution; Asus is preparing for this shift with GX10 edge devices and deeper integration of AI across product lines.
May 25
0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Capital Markets – May 25, 2025

By | Equity Capital Markets
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.

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1. GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • GMO Internet (4784 JP) was created by the reverse takeover of a listed cad/media company by its parent company’s “internet infrastructure” business. GMO Internet Group ended up with ~98%.
  • In the process, the stock rose 500%. Now, as part of its promise to the TSE allowing TSE Prime membership for the extraordinarily low-float target, the parent is offering shares.
  • The squeeze has it at 180x Dec25e EPS, 111x EBIT, 70x book. The offering likely gets pulled and the stock isn’t shortable… so what next? Pain, and an ECLWO.

2. CATL A/H Trading – Strong Demand, Upsized, Included in Short-Sell List

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing.
  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

3. GMO Internet Placement: Extremely Overvalued at the Moment

By Nicholas Tan, Aequitas Research

  • GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)  is looking to sell its 33.4% stake in its subsidiary GMO Internet (4784 JP)  to meet free-float requirements.
  • Shares are very overvalued at the moment and should be worth a mere fraction of its current trading value.
  • We have looked at the company’s deal dynamics in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss the firm’s outlook as well as valuation.

4. Jiangsu Hengrui Pharma H Share Listing (1276 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) priced its H Share at HK$44.05 to raise HK$9,890.1 million (US$1.3 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The timing of the H Share listing is fortuitous, as the peers have materially re-rated since the prospectus was released on 15 May.
  • Hengrui had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. The AH discount implied by the offer is attractive.

5. CATL H Share Listing (3750 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) priced its H Share at HK$263 to raise HK$35,657.2 million (US$4.6 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 6.6% at the A Share price of RMB63.51. This compares to Midea Group (300 HK)‘s AH discount of 4.7%.
  • CATL had the highest oversubscription rates among recent large AH listings. Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing price is attractive.

6. Eastroc Beverage A/H Listing – Energized – Fast Growth, Better Margins

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH) (EB), a China-based functional beverage company, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
  • According to Frost & Sullivan (F&S), EB has been the largest functional beverage company in China in terms of sales volume for four consecutive years since 2021.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

7. ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

8. HD Hyundai Marine Placement – Very Well Flagged, Overhang Easing but Last Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh, Aequitas Research

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$410m via selling some of its stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS).
  • KKR had come out of its IPO linked lockup in Nov 2024 and had  tried to launch a deal in Dec 2024 and finally undertook a deal in Feb 2025.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework

9. Hanwha Aerospace: Higher Rights Offering Price and Amount

By Douglas Kim, Douglas Research Advisory

  • On 21 May, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that the rights offering price increased to 684,000 won (up 26.9% from 539,000 won previously) due to recent increase in price.
  • Due to the higher rights offering price, the scale of the capital raise has increased from 2.3 trillion won previously to 2.9 trillion won (US$2.1 billion).
  • Issue price is determined by applying a 15% discount rate to the one-month weighted arithmetic average price, one-week weighted arithmetic average  price, and the closing price on the base date.

10. PegBio 派格生物 IPO: A Hardsell but Mostly Done Deal

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM, Aequitas Research

  • PegBio, a China-based near commercial stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$39m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We have previously covered the company’s fundamentals and valuation. We highlight issues of the company.
  • In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation is demanding, but the company managed to get support from local government facilitate its listing.
May 25
0

Weekly Top Ten Event-Driven and Index Rebalance – May 25, 2025

By | Event-Driven and Index Rebalance
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.

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1. CATL (3750 HK): Reassessing Index Fast Entry; Need Overallotment Exercised by Tomorrow

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

  • CATL (3750 HK) is trading at a 6.9% premium to Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) – if that is due to expectations of Fast Entry, that premium could drop.
  • CATL (3750 HK) has not announced the overallotment option as exercised and that puts Fast Entry at risk. An announcement prior to the close tomorrow could lead to Fast Entry.
  • The earliest inclusion could be at the close on 30 May while the other global index inclusion looks likely in December.

2. [Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota Industries (6201) Deal Could Be Announced Near-Term

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Friday 25 April, Toyota Industries (6201 JP) released earnings for last year, guidance for this year and a Bloomberg scoop suggested Toyota Motors chairman Akio TOYODA would launch an MBO.
  • In some ways surprising, but activists/”noisy shareholders” and TSE guidance on dual listings caused pressure, and Toyota Motors was trying to walk the good governance walk.
  • I discussed the situation here on Day 1, and here a few days later. Long-only shareholders sold. Today, Kyodo had a follow-up article. Then Nikkei. Looks more solid now. 

3. CATL (3750 HK): The Tail Wags the Dog

By Brian Freitas, Periscope Analytics

4. CATL (3750 HK)’s Concentration Warning

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) (CATL H), a global leader in providing battery solutions, was listed on the 20th May at $263/share. Here is the prospectus.
  • Via the H-share listing, CATL raised ~US$5.2bn. Shares have since gained ~26% and trade at HK$330/share, as I type.
  • It is worth noting the HKEx issued a high concentration warning in CATL’s H shares the day before shares were listed.

5. [Japan Activism/M&A] – Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • The Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) AGMs to elect directors and approve the share exchange agreement to merge the two. 
  • 10% Tsuruha shareholder Orbis objects to the merger ratio AND the later tender whereby Aeon goes to 51%, saying everything is underpriced. ISS/GlassLewis recommend voting against the merger.
  • I haven’t seen the proxy reports but I’ve done the math. Investors/arbs should look at the possibilities/probabilities and understand what dependencies exist. Shareholders are not helpless, no matter the outcome.

6. [Japan M&A] Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105) – The Deal Still Looks Mighty Good

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • On 9 May Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) delayed earnings by 30 minutes. Shares popped. Then earnings were released, no deal, and shares crashed. Now they are rebounding.
  • But they remain volatile and subject to dips like the one this AM -5% at one point. Fears may be due to the idea that first smoke here was Dec-2024.
  • 5 months later, no deal yet. Bids were due pre-earnings but with tariffs and writedowns, one wonders if bidders were waiting for results.

7. Melco (200 HK) Trading “Cheap” Into Rights Issue

By David Blennerhassett, Quiddity Advisors

8. Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Potential Privatisation Sooner than Expected

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • Kyodo news agency reported that Toyota Industries (6201 JP) plans to accept a tender offer by Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda, potentially in May or June.
  • The Nikkei reported that Toyota plans to borrow JPY3 trillion to fund the acquisition. These articles provide more clarity on price, composition of the offeror, financing structure, and timeline. 
  • These articles increase the probability of a tender offer around JPY18,515 (JPY6 trillion market cap). At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%.

9. [Japan Buybacks] ShinEtsu Chem (4063) – How the FCSR Works

By Travis Lundy, Quiddity Advisors

  • Late April, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a huge ¥500bn 200mm shares (10.2%) buyback. That was never ever going to happen. That needed a ¥2500 share price, not ¥4300+.
  • But it was big, and started in late May. Today, they announced how. It is a “Japan ASR”, the Nomura version, this time with an interesting twist.
  • In response to a couple of reader questions today, I provide a brief overview of how these things work. 

10. Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): An Opportunity or Another HK Arbageddon?

By Arun George, Global Equity Research Ltd

  • The spread to the Foo family’s HK$8.50 offer for Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has materially increased to 15.8% over the last two trading days. The vote is on 23 May. 
  • Several readers have asked if the Soundwill offer will mirror the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break. The two schemes share similarities but are also different in several ways.
  • The share price action either reflects an imminent deal break or a result of a negative feedback loop. Tread carefully as this is a high-risk/high-reward situation.
May 25
0

Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – May 25, 2025

By | Equity Derivatives
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.

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1. Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical View:  Privatization Momentum Builds — Ready to Rally?

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • Since April 28th we traced a path for Toyota Motor (7203 JP)‘s stock price, first here (forecast: going down) and then here (forecast: potential 2-week pullback to 2578).
  • Last week Toyota Motor (7203 JP)pulled back to 2598 (pretty close to our 2578 target). The stocks closed down for 2 weeks, as predicted. A rally may be starting.
  • Rumors of an acceleratingof privatization bid for Toyota Industries (6201 JP)could act as a fresh catalyst for the stock—aligning with our model’s forecast from May 8th.

2. Fast Retailing (9983 JP)Tactical Setup:  Buy-This-Dip

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • Fast Retailing (9983 JP) presents a mixed outlook characterized by strong earnings momentum tempered by some geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. Analyst opinions are mixed but consensus is mostly = “Hold”.
  • The stock started a pullback this week and is reaching a support zone that offers the possibility of entering LONG positions at a discounted price.
  • This is a short-term tactical setup but the stock can be hold for the long run if the rally continues in the coming weeks.

3. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumored Phase 2 Buyback Confirmation

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • As reported by Sanghyun Park, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) ‘s phase 2 buyback disposal plan appears to be virtually finalized (or will be finalized soon – not official yet).
  • As always, we’ll assess what our tactical models suggest about the trend from here—interpreted alongside the latest catalysts.
  • We have been monitoring Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) for a while: the stock has been bottoming, then flat for a while, rallied modestly, now a minor pullback… time to BUY?

4. BYD (1211 HK) Outlook: Near-Term Upside Still Possible, but Rally Looks Stretched…

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • BYD (1211 HK) has been rallying hard since its 309.80 bottom in early april, the stock closed at 465.20 last Friday, a +50% rally! Probably well deserved.
  • This insight analyzes the short-term tactical outlook on a WEEKLY time period basis. Our model finds that the stock is currently very overbought, however some upside is still possible.
  • You may want to consider hedging your bets with some puts (probably cheap at this point), 1-2 weeks expiry, to protect against a (probably mild), upcoming pullback.

5. Tencent (700 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Trades from HKEX Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Calendar and Diagonal Spreads make up a quarter of all strategies. Several examples are presented incorporating upfront cost, upfront credit, or zero-cost combinations. 
  • While there is a bias towards bullish strategies, 26% of all strategies express a market-neutral view in the form of Straddles, Strangles, Butterflies or Condors.

6. Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility is currently cheap, trading in its 14th percentile, while Tencent (700 HK) approaches its twelve-months high.
  • Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: A pronounced skew smile and a relatively flat term structure make spreads and calendar / diagonal spreads attractive strategies.
  • Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity can be found in the monthly May expiry and the Quarterly expiries. The historically low implied volatility facilitates longer term positions.

7. 10Y US Treasury Futures Rally: Tactical Outlook & Key Profit Zones

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

  • 10Y US Treasury Futures started to rally on Thursday, after the House of Reps approved Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill
  • The Trump administration has dismissed concerns that the latest bill will harm the nation’s financial standing, even after the U.S. lost its top-tier credit rating last week.
  • This is a brief insight to try to identify potential profit targets and duration of this rally.

8. NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Indo-Pak Ceasefire! Large Markdowns in IV-Skew-Smile Triggered

By Sankalp Singh, AceGama Advisors

  • Indo-Pak ceasefire triggers risk-premia markdowns – Monthly IVs -4.0 vols lower, Skew & Smile get compressed  
  • Vol-Regime stays in “High & Up” state with high likelihood of switching to “High & Down” in the upcoming week.  
  • IV term-structure flattened as the week progressed. Leaving front-end vol-differentials in Contango & Back-end Backwardation now eased to +0.60 vols.  
May 18
0

Weekly Top Ten Tech Hardware and Semiconductor – May 18, 2025

By | Tech Hardware and Semiconductor
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.

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1. Key Indicator Updates: Semi Sales, WFE Forecast, Latest Taiwan Monthlies & A Blow Out April For TSMC

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Global semiconductor sales for the month of March 2025 amounted to $55.9 billion, up 1.8% MoM and up 21.8% YoY
  • TSMC last week announced that revenue for the month of April amounted to NT$349.57 billion, up 22.2% MoM, up 48.1% YoY and a all time record monthly high
  • The latest monthly Taiwan semi revenues show little signs of a semi slowdown. Lagging edge remains sluggish, wafer inventories are still too high but leading edge continues to rule

2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Intel Foundry Gains Big Tech Interest; AMD CEO Champions Taiwan in D.C

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • Intel Down But Not Out — Reportedly Wins Major Microsoft Foundry Contract; Significant Interest from Nvidia and Google
  • AMD CEO Lisa Su Presents to U.S. Senate — Taiwan is America’s Key Ally in the AI Chip Race
  • Mediatek Approaching Potential Share Catalyst at Computex Taiwan; Nvidia PC PC Announcement Expected

3. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Local Short Interest Approaching Highs; ASE Close to Parity

By Vincent Fernando, CFA, Zero One

  • TSMC: +12.7% Premium; Consider Going Long the ADR Spread; Short Interest in Local Shares Approaching Highs
  • ASE: +2.0% Premium; Continue to Wait for Near-Parity Before Going Long
  • CHT: -0.8% Discount; Wait for More Extreme Level; Short Interest Continues to Spike in ADR

4. Intel. From Copy Exactly To Copy TSMC?

By William Keating, Ingenuity

  • Intel has signalled a shift from its long held Copy Exactly strategy to a “democratization of innovation between Technology Development & High Volume Manufacturing
  • This may be more akin to how TSMC operates. Some hail this as a positive, others are not quite so convinced, but it’s a seismic shift at a critical juncture 
  • If Intel is indeed switching from CE to CT, it needs to be a carefully thought out, well planned transition to succeed. But that’s not what what we see happening.