This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK Disinflationary Kool-Aid
- UK disinflation relied on smaller utility price hikes and only went as far as the 3.6% forecast before September’s dovish surprise. It does not mean a path to 2% lies ahead.
- A broad rebound in price increases took the annualised median impulse above 4% to average 2.5% over two months, or 3% on the year, as the underlying problem persists.
- The BoE’s December decision pivots around the Governor, who seemingly needs upside news to avoid delivering a cut, so this outcome preserves that riskily dovish course.
2. Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?
- Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi’s policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan’s parliament.
- China’s retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands. China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.
- We expect China’s response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.
3. HEW: Micro Risk Off
- Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
- US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
- Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.
4. EA: Unsatisfying disinflationary snack
- Slower food price inflation nibbled the EA rate down to 2.1% in October, while services increased to their fastest pace since April. Labour costs are still rising too fast.
- Underlying inflation metrics are broadly a bit beyond target, risking a slight overshoot in the medium term, but the median impulse is reassuring, weighed down by France.
- Energy prices are set to bump inflation around the target in 2026, averaging above the consensus in our view. The ECB would need tightness elsewhere to shift rates, though.
5. The Dollar Is Smiling But It’s Not Happy 🙁
- The dollar has strengthened in the face of weakening equity markets, however it is not the Dollar Smile theory supporting its move this time.
- A more hawkish Fed signals a break with past conditioning for a Fed Put to bail out the stock market. Post-COVID inflation caused by Fed policies will constrain aggressive easing.
- Safe-Haven support for the dollar and Treasuries broke down during the April selloff, indicating a change in foreigners’ perception of holding USD assets and leading to significantly increased dollar hedging.
6. Japan: The New Takaichi Trade, SELL THE RIP!
- Sentiment in Japan has reversed sharply showing strains in the JPY and JGB markets. The Nikkei 225 has retraced all its gains since the election of Prime Minister Takaichi.
- The market is nervous about the size of Takaichi’s economic package, which will be ¥21.3 trillion; 27%. more than her predecessor pledged. It will increase bond issuance substantially.
- Tensions from Takaichi’s provocation of China show no sign of easing. China has started economic and other measures to respond. The US has removed a missile launcher from Japan.
7. US: Resilient Into Shutdown
- US payroll data revealed resilience going into the US government shutdown, with jobs growth the strongest since April and annualising to a pace capable of plateauing growth.
- Surging labour force participation drove unemployment up in the least disappointing way, with the employment to population ratio making a contradictory improvement.
- Jobless claims suggest stability into the shutdown’s end, besides noisy federal claims. The FOMC may not get the evidence it needs to cut again in December. It may not exist.
8. Asian Equities: A Correction, Not a Bear Market; Rates Still Falling and Earnings Are Catching Up
- Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.
- Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing.
- AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers’ cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.
9. Asian Equities: Policy Focus Reflected in Sector-Wise IPO Revival in Leading Markets
- Asian IPOs’ spike in 2025 (21% higher till October) has been driven primarily by HK/China. Indian IPOs are almost at the same level as in a very strong 2024.
- Policy thrust for “New Productive Forces” are driving capital raising from industrials, materials, technology and utilities and shall continue to do so. Healthcare should also be a buoyant capital raiser.
- India’s policy focus on manufacturing and listing of PE-funded companies should drive IPOs from industrials, materials and consumer discretionary. Financials shall also remain a large issuer sector.
10. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Nov 2025
U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.
Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.
Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Asking TSMC for More Capacity; Apple to Disintermediate Telcos?
- Nvidia Pushes TSMC for More Capacity as AI Chip Demand Surges
- Apple Expands Its Satellite Ambitions for iPhones Beyond Just Emergencies — A Step Towards Disintermediating Telcos?
- Nvidia’s International HQ in Taipei Deal Clears Final Hurdle — Boost for Taiwan 2026E-2027E
2. Substrate. ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream?
- Silicon valley startup Substrate made waves two weeks ago when they emerged from stealth mode to announce a revolutionary new tool they claim will rival ASML’s EUV lithography capability
- Substrate simultaneously plans to build next-generation semiconductor fabs to return America to dominance in semiconductor production and will use their technology—a new form of advanced X-ray lithography—to power them.
- For a three year old startup, whos CEO has zero documented experience of semiconductors or lithography, these are bold claims indeed. This should be interesting!
3. Humanoid Robots Won’t Take Your Job, We’ve Just Decided Not To Give You The Job In The First Place.
- Jensen Huang claims that the world is running out of workers & there will be a shortage of 50 million workers by the end of the decade. Enter humanoid robots.
- Elon Musk claims that AI and robots will take all our jobs, working will be optional and we can grow vegetables while he’s on his way to becoming a trillionaire
- Technology and society are rapidly approaching a critical decision point. Jobs for robots or for humans?
4. SMIC (981.HK): Although GM May Decline Slightly, Revenue Is Expected to Continue Growing in 4Q25.
- Revenue in 3Q25 was 7.8% higher than in 2Q25, in line with stronger seasonal demand. GM: 22.0% in 3Q25, compared with 20.4% in 2Q25 and 20.5% in 3Q24.
- The Company expects: Revenue Flat to up 2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Gross Margin: Between 18% and 20%.
- SMIC’s stock price has risen 160.7% year-to-date in 2025, outperforming Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) at 44.2% and United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) at 10.8%.
5. Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Capex Peaking, Profits to Rebound
- Announced last Friday, FY Sep-25 sales and net profit were in line with guidance, but operating profit fell short. On Monday, the shares dropped 4.5%, wiping out a month’s gains.
- Looking ahead, management expects three years of sales and profit growth as capex declines, depreciation and R&D level off, and the NKT Photonics acquisition approaches breakeven.
- In this scenario, semiconductor, bio-medical, defense and quantum computing applications should drive 3-year sales growth of 24% and a 71% increase in net profit, bringing the P/E down to 20X.
6. Silergy (6415.TT): 4Q25 Flat or Slightly Upside; Early Gen4 Yields Remain Non-Comparable.
- 4Q25 seasonal outlook? Silergy expects flat to slightly up QoQ, similar to past years.
- Silergy does see consolidation, and given its stronger financials, product breadth, and R&D capabilities, the company remains a top supplier and will continue to gain share.
- Will 1H next year be better than 2H this year?Hard to say because of Chinese New Year seasonality.We expect YoY growth, but not strong yet.
7. TechChain Insights: ChipMOS Indicates Memory Industry Surge into 2026E; Smartphones Currently Soft
- This assembly and testing leader provides fresh insight into the state of display, memory, consumer, enterprise, and industrial end markets.
- ChipMOS: Memory Industry Strength Offsets Display Industry Weakness. Memory strength seen into 2026E. Company noted soft smartphone industry panel demand currently.
- Management signals sustained memory upcycle; disciplined capex to serve multi-year AI and datacenter growth. We rate ChipMOS shares as a Structural Long.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. ECM Weekly (10 November 2025) – Seres, Pony, WeRide, Joyson, DIY, Maynilad, Northsand, Softcare
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, the deal flow continues unabated, although a lot of listing in Hong Kong didn’t do to well last week.
- On the placements front, there were a number of deals, with a few right at lockup expiry.
2. Groww IPO Trading – Decent Overall Demand
- Groww (1573648D IN) raised around US$747m in its India IPO. Groww, officially called Billionbrains Garage Ventures, is a direct-to-customer digital investment platform providing multiple financial products and services.
- With Groww, customers can invest and trade in stocks (including via IPOs), derivatives, bonds, mutual funds and other products. Customers can also avail margin trading facility and personal loans.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.
3. CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing (2579 HK): Valuation Insights
- CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK), a new energy materials company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$507 million.
- I discussed the H Share listing in CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
- The proposed AH discount range of 36.9% to 29.9% (based on the 7 November A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.
4. Human Made Pre-IPO: A Bathing Ape, Reborn
- Human Made (456A JP) aims to raise around US$116m in its Japan IPO.
- Human Made Inc. is a Japan-based apparel and lifestyle company. Its business model centers on producing high-value, limited-supply apparel and goods.
- In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.
5. CNGR A/H Listing: Healthy A/H Premium and Cheap Valuation
- CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company. It is the global leader of nickel-based and cobalt-based pCAM (cathode) for lithium-ion batteries.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
6. Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical IPO: Well-Positioned to Ride Oncology Focused Global ADC Wave
- Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical has launched HK IPO to raise ~$430M by offering 8.6M shares at HK$389 per share. Subscriptions will close on November 12, with expected listing on November 17.
- Lead candidate, iza-bren is the world’s first and only EGFR × HER3 bispecific ADC to have entered Phase 3 trial. Biokin has co-development and co-commercialization agreement with BMS for iza-bren.
- The company is already listed on China’s A-share market in Shanghai. Biokin shares have been a strong performer since it went public and rose 77% over the last one year.
7. Lenskart Solutions IPO Trading – Very Strong Anchor Facing Weak Markets
- Lenskart Solutions raised around US$825m in its India IPO, with a very strong anchor book.
- Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
- We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
8. Physicswallah IPO – RHP Updates and Thoughts on Valuation
- Physicswallah Is looking to raise about US$434m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about the RHP updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.
9. Pine Labs IPO Trading – Low/No Demand
- Pine Labs raised around US$450m in its India IPO. Overall demand was weak.
- Pine Labs (PL) is a fintech firm focused on digitizing commerce through digital payments and issuing solutions for merchants, consumer brands and enterprises, and financial institutions.
- We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
10. Klook Pre-IPO – The Positives – Growth Has Been Very Strong
- Klook (KLK US), a pan-regional experiences platform in Asia-Pacific, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
- Klook connects travelers with merchants providing a vast array of activities, tours, attractions and other travel services across the globe.
- In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Index Consultation on DATCos Means MORE Selling Likely, and Another Index Questionable
- In mid-September, global index provider M _ _ _ announced that they were conducting an index consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. I wrote about it here.
- My recommended short at the time is down 30%, despite announcing a large buyback program. Others have lost significant premium vs underlying digital assets.
- The same index provider expanded their list of affected names on 29 Oct. And a DIFFERENT Index provider this week added DATCOs to a US Advisory Panel Meeting Agenda Wednesday.
2. [Japan M&A] Senko Group (9069 JP) Bids for Maruwn (9067 JP) In Deal Which May Trigger Fireworks
- Today, logistics company SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP) announced a bid for logistics company Maruwn Corp (9067 JP) with help from 35% holder JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP).
- The TOB only needs 11+% to get to 50.1%. There are three holders who Senko clearly regard as not necessarily agreeable to the deal. They hold 28.0% between them.
- If someone wanted to thwart this deal, there are a number of ways to do it. This could get interesting.
3. [Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting Event – Updating The Assumptions/Estimates
- Light & Wonder (LNW US) will be delisted at the close of tomorrow US time (two trading days left) and shares converted to Australian CDIs.
- After studying the matter we have amended our assumptions on how flows work. More net selling than expected in November, irksome uncertainy in December, more buyback flows in the meantime.
- The stock was higher on earnings in Australia, skipped a day, then skipped another day, then jumped in the US yesterday.
4. ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Maxing Out the Changes
- With the review period complete, we forecast 10 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
- The largest flows will be in 2 stocks that are forecast adds for both indices. There are 14 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes from June to August, but there has been significant underperformance since then. Outperformance could resume as positioning kicks in prior to announcement.
5. [Japan M&A] Taiyo Pacific Offers ¥2,210 for Star Micronics (7718) Completing the Shareholder Ripoff
- Today after the close, well-known Japan engagement fund Taiyo Pacific Partners announced a deal to buy Star Micronics (7718 JP) for ¥2,210/share. They’ve been involved small-big-small for 20yrs.
- The company launched a new capital plan and MTMP in February. Cash-rich, it needed no money to grow aggressively. So TPP proposed buying a third of the company. Board agreed.
- Despite ActionsToImplementManagementConsciousOfSharePriceAndCostOfCapital announced February, in April-November the Board decided to sell the entire company to TPP at <1x book. This is borderline outrageous. It deserves notice and complaint.
6. Hynix L2 Flag Risk: Why Stuck Below ₩620k? Eyes on Nov 17 Pivot
- Hynix tagged L2: cash‑only, no margin. >40% two‑day rip triggers KRX halt. L2 caps distort tape; Square’s Oct 27–Nov 10 run showed the messy playbook.
- Hynix L2 review: five >200% YoY prints since Nov 4, but no fresh 15‑day high—₩620k from Nov 3 still the cap, yesterday stalled just below.
- Break above ₩620k likely triggers L2, leverage caps, volatile tape, Square outperformance; hold below into Monday kills L2 risk, keeps Hynix’s relative bid with retail still piling in.
7. [Japan M&A] Paris Miki Is Indeed an MBO Target; Luxottica May Complain But Tough To Block
- Today after the close, Paris Miki Holdings (7455 JP) announced the Tane family Holdco would buy out the company in an “MBO” at ¥581, or 4.8x current year EBITDA.
- World famous eyeglass/sunglass manufacturer Luxottica bought 13.8% of the company in the low ¥300s almost stopping about a year ago. They might complain, but Paris Miki is a big outlet.
- This looks like it gets done. The family+crossholders+ESOP+warrants have 65% of the expanded share count. Those who would complain would need to do so soon, and loudly.
8. Square’s Level 2 Leverage Caps End Tomorrow — Fresh Near‑term Factor in the Square Vs Hynix Setup
- Square closed ₩290,000, missing all criteria; Level 2 removal effectively confirmed, with KRX disclosure expected ~8 p.m. Seoul, effective from tomorrow’s open.
- Square vs Hynix hinges on retail chase structurally, but near‑term Square’s underperformance worsened by asymmetric leverage shackles.
- Square’s Level 2 setup ends tomorrow; flows normalize, likely giving Square more juice vs Hynix. Key spot to watch from tomorrow’s open.
9. [Japan M&A] KKR and Founder to Take Engineer Staffing Agency Forum Engineering (7088) Private
- Today after the close, KKR announced a deal whereby they and founder OKUBO Izumi-san would take Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP) private in an LBO.
- The process of this deal ticks most all of the “bad process” boxes but the price is pretty good.
- 52% is locked in. Insiders and cross-holders appear to own another 15-18%. This looks like a done deal to me. Money comes 30 December.
10. Merger Arb Mondays (10 Nov) – Soft99, Digital Holding, Saint-Care, ANE, ENN Energy, Mayne, AUB
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook Ahead of December Rebalance
- As Brian Freitas recently outlined: the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) will undergo its semi-annual review by the end of November 2025, there could be profit-taking as we near that date.
- In our previous insight we flagged potential downside tail risk. While the index hasn’t fallen since our warning, this doesn’t mean the risk has dissipated.
- Our profit target model (the “go SHORT” model) is showing a rare pattern with very few rallies, severely limited upside (less than 1.5%) and an 80% reversal probability.Bearish.
2. Happy Singles’ Day! How Alibaba (9988 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Move After 11/11
- Alibaba (9988 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) often see heightened volatility following Singles’ Day (11 November), though performance varies by year.
- Alibaba’s post-event returns are mixed, averaging nearly twice its normal four-day move, while JD.com has shown stronger and more consistent gains.
- Option markets imply elevated short-term volatility—especially for JD.com—with potential trading opportunities around the 14 November expiry.
3. SoftBank (9984 JP) Tactical Outlook: What’s Next After NVDA Exit, Wild Swings, and Strong Earnings?
- Softbank Group (9984 JP) is swinging wildly. On Nov 11, the stock sank -13% after it said it had sold its entire stake in NVIDIA (NVDA US) for $5.83 billion.
- The stock also posted record Q2 earnings on Nov 12, but closed the day down -3.46% (after a strong rally from the 21k bottom). Most gains come from OpenAI investment.
- For sure it’s not easy to hold this stock at the moment, this insight will analyze the next 2-3 weeks’ outlook, support and resistance, according to our quantitative model.
4. Mitsubishi Electric: Digital Pivot Sparks 60% Profit Surge, What’s Next?
- Mitsubishi Electric is successfully executing a multi-year pivot toward becoming a high-margin digital solutions provider, anchored by its DX strategy and acquisition of OT security leader Nozomi Networks.
- H1 FY26 financial results confirm clear operating strength, showing a strong 60% year-over-year surge in net profit and strong revenue growth, especially within the Infrastructure and Life segments.
- Management’s shift to higher-margin software and services, along with disciplined capital management, is materializing value and helps justify a positive long-term view.
5. Earnings Volatility Preview: Options Price Sharp Swings in China Tech Earnings Week
- Context: Some of Hong Kong’s largest and most prominent companies will report in the coming days, representing 20% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)
- Highlight: This Insight quantifies option-implied swings which serve as a gauge for post-earnings reactions.
- Why Read: Prepare for a busy earnings week by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.
6. Advantest Q2 FY2025, Navigating Post-Earnings Volatility
- Advantest’s updated guidance and MTP3 targets confirm its dominant, long-term growth trajectory as a key supplier for the high-performance computing and AI semiconductor supply chain.
- Despite a strong structural growth story, the stock faces near-term headwinds from a sequential decline in Q2 operating income and an elevated valuation that reflects peak market optimism.
- We suggest a tactical adjustment to vega exposure due to market dynamics, recommending a strategy to monetize the heightened implied and realized volatility following the strong earnings report.
7. Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns
- November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
- Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
- Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.
8. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Exit or Hedge Your Position
- In our previous, September 29th insight about Fast Retailing (9983 JP) , we flagged the stock for a rally. But boy, we didn’t anticipate how far it would run!
- 6 weeks have passed and the stock has rallied up nearly 30% as of Tuesday’s Close. We think it’s time to sell (or at least hedge your position).
- Rationale: the stock is incredibly overbought according to our model, plus it is one of the few stocks we track in Asia that has not started a pull back (yet).
9. Nintendo Post-Earnings, Pre-Holidays: Are Profit Margins Going to Jump Back?
- Switch 2’s successful launch drives a hyper-growth cycle, which may have been confirmed by the full-year hardware forecast hike to 19 million units for FY26.
- Despite a temporary Gross Profit Margin drop due to the initial low-margin hardware sales mix, a continued rebound could occur fueled by higher-margin software sales, especially during the holiday season.
- The analysis concludes with a leverage-optimized directional trading strategy, utilizing a typical recommended hedge to protect against potential short-term broader market volatility risks.
10. Samsung, SK Hynix, Samsung F&M, Meritz: The Balanced AI-Momentum Korea Portfolio, and KOSPI Options
- AI-Driven KOSPI concentration necessitates a balanced, diversified portfolio (AI/Tech + Defensives) with a tactical hedge.
- KOSPI’s 84% YTD gain is narrowly led by Samsung and SK Hynix (45% of gains), raising concentration risk tied to the volatile global AI capex cycle.
- The strategy is built by blending high-beta AI-linked technology exposure with lower-beta insurance and industrial stocks for ballast and stability.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK: Jobless Embolden Bailey’s Cut
- Another disappointing rise in the unemployment rate should embolden Bailey’s bias to cut rates in December. Falling net underemployment contradicts, but is easily ignored.
- Another step down in payrolls, matched by employment this time, could be blamed on fears for the Budget. Redundancies also spiked, although vacancies are stable.
- Headline pay growth is slowing as expected, while the monthly impulse remains excessively strong, so the hawks are unlikely to see inflation persistence as broken.
2. UK: Return To Residual H2 Gloom
- UK GDP disappointed in Q3 at 0.1% q-o-q after the ONS revised away August’s surprise resilience and led it into a slight September fall, setting up for a soft Q4 too.
- Residual seasonality in service sector growth has reasserted itself on the average post-pandemic path. So statistical stories seem more plausible than fundamental ones.
- Weakness in labour market activity is more relevant. The hawkish half of the MPC probably needs disinflationary news to support a cut, but the Governor seems swayed.
3. CHINA’S AI COMMODITIZATION: Can Global AI Valuations Survive?
- Chinese AI model downloads have surpassed those of the U.S. putting at risk the valuations of the large hyperscalers in the U.S.
- Chinese open-source AI models offer a more secure, efficient, and lower cost alternative to Chat GPT -5 , Claude 4.5 Sonnet, and other U.S. LLMs.
- We believe that there will be a turning point when investors will realize that the Chinese open-source AI models have undercut the premise of U.S. global dominance of AI.
4. 239: How Private Markets Could Reshape Portfolios and Investment Opportunities by 2030
- Private markets are investments into non-listed companies or assets, providing diversification and potentially higher returns for portfolios
- There is a significant trend of companies staying private for longer, leading to increased opportunities for private market investors
- Individual investors are increasingly looking to allocate to private markets, with the total alternative assets under management expected to reach $32 trillion by 2030.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
5. NPS Could Raise Allocation of Korean Stocks = KOSPI to 5,000 Soon
- One of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks has been the discussions about NPS potentially increasing the allocation of Korean stocks.
- If NPS announces a meaningful increase in the allocation of Korean stocks for its AUM, then there could certainly be an acceleration to KOSPI reaching 5,000.
- Based on what we have gathered so far, there is a higher probability (70-80%) that NPS meaningfully increases the allocation of Korean stocks in the next several months.
6. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (November 10)
- The Hong Kong market is consolidating with rotational buying into value and high dividend factor investments. Mainland buying has slowed and diversified away from tech into low volatility names.
- After leading the market for nine months, growth and momentum factors turned down sharply in October. The energy sector is showing increased strength and momentum, while tech and healthcare lag.
- Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) had a technical breakout after forming a Golden Cross with a rebound off its 50 day-moving-average. The share price is benefiting from anti-involution policies.
7. Oil: Wisdom of (Mohammed bin) Salman
- Most analysis of Opec+’s 2 November decision is as overly simplistic as the cartel’s public justifications. Calling an unwinding ‘time out’ in 2026Q1 is by no means unwise.
- Most notably — and despite continuing economic and political uncertainty — it is very likely that the market will be awash with oil in any case for some months to come.
- In other words, the cartel may already have done enough to achieve its primary objective, i.e. clawing back market share at the expense of US shale producers.
8. Asian Equities: Earnings Estimate Upgrades Climbing, but Slowly and Selectively
- Midway through the 3Q25 result season, eighteen Asian market-sectors have reported consensus EPS estimate upgrades over past one, three and six months. A quarter ago, we identified 11 such sectors.
- Eleven of these sectors are from HK/China, Korea and Taiwan. Seven are from ASEAN markets, dominated by Thailand. India and Singapore are conspicuous by their absence.
- Among the notable sectors with EPS upgrades, Chinese base metals, HK/Chinese and Korean financials, Chinese pharmaceuticals, Korean and Taiwanese technology, Thai utilities and communication and Philippines transportation stand out.
9. HEW: Back To Business
- The US government reopened after some of those seeking to expand the state inevitably broke ranks to reverse some shrinkage, although the fight could resume in January.
- UK activity data were broadly disappointing as unemployment rose and GDP fell at the end of Q3, after downwards revisions helped realign with the residual seasonality.
- Next week’s UK inflation data will be more insightful for the BoE’s hawks and us. The belated release of US macro data will probably be more substantive market news.
10. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 14 Nov 2025
India delivers exceptionally low headline inflation while Japan and the United Kingdom face persistent price pressures and weak growth signals.
Vietnam undergoes political restructuring, yet I see improving economic prospects driven by potential domestic-demand reforms.
China’s seemingly weak October data reflect calendar effects, with monetary indicators instead pointing to strengthening momentum.
- Private market research and data initiative aimed at strengthening Singapore’s positioning as a premier capital-raising hub for high-growth enterprises across Asia
- Initial focus on emerging sectors and new economy companies
- Leverages Smartkarma’s strong industry collaborations, distribution and technology to ensure reliable, high-quality coverage for all global investors
SINGAPORE, 13 November 2025 – Smartkarma, the global investment intelligence platform, announces the launch of pvtIQ, an independent research and data provider on Asian private markets.
This initiative aims to bring intelligence on an important asset class with credible data and information, strengthening Singapore’s positioning as a premier capital-raising hub and in support of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP).
pvtIQ will initially focus on delivering intelligence on emerging sectors and new economy companies — including financial services, consumer, and technology — providing investors with high-quality research and data for investment decisions.
Further, pvtIQ will leverage Smartkarma’s strong industry collaborations, including with the Singapore Venture and Private Capital Association (SVCA), SVCA members and the Singapore Exchange (SGX). Smartkarma’s technology and distribution will ensure pvtIQ is able to deliver democratized access to high-quality research and data for all global investors.
According to industry estimates, over $74 billion in technology investments have been made in Southeast Asia since 2014, but exit proceeds amounted to under $23 billion. pvtIQ aims to strengthen private market capital solutions — providing companies with a clear pathway from private fundraising to public listing, by enhancing transparency, visibility and deepening engagements.
SVCA, in a statement, said: “A stronger mid-stage private and pre-IPO research ecosystem will enable a broader range of investors to evaluate and monitor a broader range of potential SGX listed companies and complement the other initiatives in motion. We look forward to engaging with Smartkarma to re-energize the ecosystem.”
Chan Kum Kong, MD, Head of Capital Market Development, SGX Group said: “Research connects companies with capital by making their value proposition clear, credible, and visible. At the same time, it helps investors make informed decisions and gives enterprises the exposure they need to grow.”
“Through pvtIQ, we hope to extend reliable, high-quality coverage of Asia’s private companies and sectors to global investors. This reflects Smartkarma’s endeavour to provide investors with greater intelligence and transparency into Asian private markets, while ensuring alignment with Singapore’s broader capital markets development agenda,“ said Pranav Rao, Smartkarma’s Head of Research and Content Strategy.
More information is available at pvtiq.com.
^ Cento Ventures: Southeast Asia Tech Investment 2023 – 2024
Media Contact
Elaine Ang
Managing Director, engageIR
M: 87222151
E: [email protected]
About Smartkarma
Smartkarma’s AI-augmented platform empowers strategic decision-making through real-time actionable insight, premium data analytics, and direct connectivity to top-ranked investment analysts. Smartkarma empowers global investors who want to access market-moving, differentiated intelligence; corporates who need to maximise their outreach; and analysts who wish to reach global investors with their research and data services. In 2021, Smartkarma received the Knowledge Enterprise Award at the Singapore FinTech Festival Global FinTech Awards. Smartkarma is backed by notable investors including the Singapore Exchange (SGX), Peak XV, Wavemaker Partners, Jungle Ventures, and Enterprise Singapore. Learn more at smartkarma.com.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. Microsoft’s OpenAI Conundrum
- In Q126, Microsoft recorded $4.1 billion in net losses from investments in OpenAI, up from $688 million in the year ago quarter.
- The newly updated partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI has many clauses contingent on when (not if) AGI gets declared. Since AGI has no actual definition, an expert panel will decide.
- Sam Altman dreams of an OpenAI IPO so that detractors can be lured into shorting the stock and getting burned in the process. Revenue growth is a touchy subject, apparently
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: Mediatek’s Power Move for 2nm Chips; Yet More TSMC Pricing Power
- TSMC Sets Sights on 3-10% Price Rises for Advanced Nodes
- MediaTek’s Leap Into the 2nm Era — Leading Edge Node Signals Market Leadership Ambitions
- Mediatek 3Q25: Good News (ASIC Revenue) But Weak Margins Getting Weaker. Stock Not Attractive.
3. NEC (6701 JP): Tie-Up with Siemens Adds to Growth Potential
- NEC and Siemens plan to develop an automated robot teaching system for faster set-up and more efficient operation of production lines incorporating multiple robots.
- NEC’s FY Mar-26 guidance raised on strong 1H results. BluStellar, which includes digital twins for robot teaching, grew faster than expected.
- Aerospace/Defense led sales growth and followed BluStellar in operating profit. Improving product mix and rising Japanese defense budget point to growing long-term potential.
4. Novatek (3034.TT): 4Q25 Decline; AI-Integrated Products Currently ~20% of SoC Revenue and Growing.
- 4Q25 Guidance: Revenue NT$22–23bn (declined 4.9% QQ); Entering traditional low season. Gross Margin: 35–38%; Operating Margin: 14.5–17.5%.
- AI-Integrated products currently ~20% of SoC revenue and growing. Image SoC / New Camera Trends: New AI Vlog cameras seeing positive demand.
- Key 2026 factors: FX, gold price, raw materials (KGD, substrate) supply.
5. Yageo 3Q25 Take-Aways: Passive Components Leader Benefitting from AI Applications Demand
- Strong AI Demand Sustains Revenue Growth Despite the Seasonal Headwinds
- Recent Shibaura Acquisition Enhances Yageo’s Strategic Positioning in Specialty Components
- We rate Yageo as a Structural Long – AI Content Cycle Should Drive Sustainable Mix Improvement
6. Vanguard (5347.TT): 3Q25 EPS Missed Expectations; 4Q25 and 1Q26 Decline Milder Than Seasonal Trend
- Management expects 4Q25 wafer shipments to decline 6–8% QoQ, while ASP should rise 4–6% QoQ, mainly due to lower DDI shipments.
- The AI revenue share has risen from a low-single-digit percentage in 2024 to a high-single-digit level in 2025.
- The worst phase of mature-node overcapacity has passed, and pricing pressure should ease entering 2026.
7. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Eases Down; UMC & CHT Opportunity Levels
- TSMC: +21.8% Premium; Wait for Lower Premium Before Fresh Long
- UMC: +2.2% Premium; Good Level to Short the ADR Premium
- CHT: -2.0% Discount; Near Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Hitachi Construction Machinery Block – US$450m Selldown by Hitachi
- Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) aims to raise around US$452m via a 6.97% stake sale in Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. Post the selldown, Hitachi’s stake will reduce to 18.4%.
- Hitachi Construction Machinery Co (HCMC) is a Japanese company that designs, manufactures, sells, and services construction and mining equipment.
- In this note we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
2. ECM Weekly (3 November 2025)-Sany, Seres, CIG, PonyAI, WeRide, Mininglamp, Lenskart, Groww, Softcare
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, there were a flurry of deal launches across Hong Kong and India.
- On the placements front, while the week was rather quiet, we did have a look at the upcoming lockup release.
3. PonyAI and WeRide Secondary HK Trading – Weakish Demand, WeRide Did Better but Trading Lower
- Pony AI (PONY US) raised around US$860m and WeRide (WRD US) raised around US$310m in their HK Secondary offering.
- We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous note.
- In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics for the two deals.
4. CNGR A/H Listing: PHIP Update and Thoughts on A/H Premium
- CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH), a Chinese battery-component producer, aims to raise up to US$700m in its H-share listing.
- CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
5. Seres Group A/H Trading – Demand Wasn’t Very Strong, Close to Fair Value
- Seres Group (601127 CH), a Chinese NEV manufacturer, raised around US$2.1bn in its H-share listing.
- Seres Group (SG) is principally engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, sales and services of new energy vehicles (NEV) as well as core NEV components.
- We have looked at the past performance and likely A/H premium in our previous note. In this note, we talk about IPO trading dynamics.
6. Pony.AI Hong Kong Public Offering Valuation Analysis
- Pony.ai has finalized the Hong Kong public offering price at HK$139 per share and it expects to raise HK$6.71 billion (US$860 million) from its planned secondary listing in Hong Kong.
- Our base case valuation of Pony.Ai is HK$178.2 per share over the next 6-12 months, which represents 28% higher than the Hong Kong public offering price.
- Given the solid upside, we have a Positive View of Pony.ai. Despite our Positive view, there have been increasing concerns about the overstretched valuations of major AI/tech related companies globally.
7. Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Trading Debut
- Seres Group (9927 HK) priced its H Share at HK$131.50 to raise HK$14,283 million (US$1.8 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
- I discussed the H Share listing in Seres Group H Share Listing: The Investment Case and Seres Group H Share Listing (9927 HK): Valuation Insights.
- The price momentum is weak, and the international oversubscription rates were below the median of recent large AH listings. Nevertheless, Seres’ AH discount remains attractive.
8. Groww IPO – Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation
- Groww (1573648D IN) is looking to raise around US$747m in its India IPO.Groww, officially called Billionbrains Garage Ventures, is a direct-to-customer digital investment platform providing multiple financial products and services.
- With Groww, customers can invest and trade in stocks (including via IPOs), derivatives, bonds, mutual funds and other products. Customers can also avail margin trading facility and personal loans.
- In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the peer comp and implied valuations in the price range.
9. Groww IPO Review – India’s Largest & Fastest Growing Broker / Investment Platform.
- Groww is India’s largest stockbroker with 13mn active users. It is progressing towards a full-stack investment platform, expecting to cross-sell multiple financial products to over 18mn users on its platform.
- It is aggressively expanding into lending (MTF, LAS) and has recently acquired ‘Fisdom’ to offer premiumised wealth solutions (AIF, insurance, tax-filing). It also owns Groww AMC, offering debt/equity/Fixed income products.
- At 33 times FY25 earnings, IPO is priced reasonably considering its deep penetration in the market (customers from 98% Pincodes) and strong ARPU and profitability supported by decent retention metrics.
10. Pre-IPO Softcare (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- The rise of Softcare is in line with the logic of “Chinese supply chain going global”.It has solved channel/cost problems through localized production, quickly captured market share with low-price tactic.
- Our forecast benefiting from market penetration/capacity expansion, revenue growth could be 15% YoY in 2025.In 2026-2027, as competition intensifies, revenue growth may slow down to 12% YoY, 10% YoY respectively.
- Given that Softcare’s main market is in Africa, which is characterized by high growth and high risk, a forecasted P/E of 8-12x for 2025 could be a comfortable valuation range.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. [Japan Activism] DeNA Attracts Murakami Group – Potentially Squeezable With Reason
- Last week, “Murakami Group” (a group of investors who jointly file large shareholder filings) announced a 5+% stake in DeNA (2432 JP). The stock popped. Then they filed again.
- This was not surprising. It has long been known as a “value” name (and has the requisite short balance to prove it). The question is how much value IS there
- The question is how much value IS there. And to whom? It’s an interesting question which deserves a look, so we take a look.
2. Pine Labs IPO: Slashed Offering Size & Lower Valuation
- Pine Labs (0568874D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 176.5m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$439m at a valuation of US$2.86bn.
- The price band has been set at INR 210-221/share and could price at the top end of the range. The IPO raise and valuation are sharply lower than earlier reports.
- Inclusion at regular rebalances will commence in May but flow will be small given the low float and the Smallcap indices that it is added to.
3. Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Market Movements Support the Case of a Higher Offer
- Last month, nearly two dozen global asset managers, through ACGA, submitted a joint letter to the boards of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Toyota Motor regarding the tender offer.
- The letter outlined five issues, which distilled down to concerns about a low-balled offer. Their cause is increasingly supported by market movements, which support the case for the bump.
- Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. My SoTP valuation is JPY19,607, which is 20.3% above the offer price.
4. [Quiddity Index] Light & Wonder (LNW US/AU) US Delisting / ASX Relisting Index Event
- In August, Light & Wonder (LNW AU) / Light & Wonder (LNW US) announced that the company would give up its US listing and move to an ASX Primary Listing.
- The NASDAQ delisting has been confirmed (as expected) for 12 November. October saw significant CDI conversions. More have come in the last few days.
- This creates a significant, and interesting set of index events to track.
5. Matheson’s Motive For Avoiding MAND’s Dissentient Shareholders
- Back in 2021, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) took 84.89%-held Jardine Strategic (JS SP) private by way of an Amalgamation. As Matheson was permitted to vote, the outcome was assured.
- Less clear are “fair value” appraisal rights afforded Strategic’s dissentient shareholders, the outcome of which navigates the Bermuda/UK courts. To date, dissenters have mostly had their way.
- Which may have precipitated Matheson opting for a (full value) Scheme for Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), in which appraisal rights are not afforded.
6. Merger Arb Mondays (03 Nov) – ANE, Dongfeng, Mayne, AUB, Digital Holdings, Makino, Soft99, SCSK
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Brainpad Inc (3655 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
7. [Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) – Murakami at 20% and Mandom Offers A Sweet Poison Pill
- Mandom Corp (4917 JP) yesterday decided to launch a question-response effort for the Murakami-san Group ownership of Mandom shares up to and above 20%. This is a Poison Pill precursor.
- There’s a drawn out set of questions, answers, etc, at the end of which, the Independent Committee will decide that Murakami is a Bad Person and the Poison Pill proceeds.
- Murakami Group is apparently now over 20%. That’s a little tricky. But this looks like a Good Poison Pill.
8. Mandom (4917 JP): Countermeasures Ostensibly to Buy Time for a Higher Offer
- Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has proposed countermeasures in response to Murakami’s 18.87% voting stake and to ostensibly secure time for an alternative, viable (higher) offer.
- The read-across from the proposal is that CVC’s offer at current terms will fail, CVC is unwilling to match Murakami/Hibiki’s expectations, and there could be genuine interest from third-party bidders.
- Nevertheless, countermeasures are unnecessary as the share price and presence of activists provide the time needed for the Board’s purported aim to secure a higher offer.
9. Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing
- Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.
- The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
- The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.
10. StubWorld: Sumitomo Chemical/Sumitomo Pharma, Hyundai Motor/ Kia Corp, Ecopro Co/Ecopro BM
- For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco’s trading at extreme levels, in both “set-up” and “unwind” territory.
- Preceding the chart/table-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.