This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025
- Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything macro, where we aim to paint a medium-term picture of liquidity, growth, and inflation—and how these factors will impact your allocation.
- It seems The Donald has a penchant for late Friday tariff announcements, keeping markets on edge for a second consecutive Monday open.
- This pattern is starting to take shape, though we likely need a third occurrence before drawing statistical conclusions.
2. The Economic Impact of Tariffs
- Recent announcements of tariffs by the Trump administration have caused global tensions and retaliatory measures
- The tariffs are aimed at countries like Mexico, Canada, and China, with potential impacts on US companies and global supply chains
- The situation is evolving, with negotiations and potential escalations to watch for in the coming days
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
3. The Art of the Trade War: US/CHINA Opening Moves
- Trump imposed smaller than anticipated tariffs on China and Xi reacted with a smaller than anticipated retaliation. China is in a better negotiating position than Canada and Mexico.
- DeepSeek’s announcement of its powerful and less expensive A.I. model which performed at a similar level to ChatGPT changes the dynamic of US tech domination in the A.I. field.
- Xi has taken aim at the Magnificent 7 companies as a strategy to weaken Trump’s hand in negotiations and pressuring the US stock market.
4. Korea Exchange Announces 8 Major Incentives for Selected Excellent Value-Up Companies
- On 11 February, the Korea Exchange announced eight major incentives for selected excellent Corporate Value Up companies every May starting this year.
- Some of the major incentives include preferential tax treatment and preferential inclusion in the Korea Value Up index.
- The Korea Exchange plans to select and announce 10 companies that will be included as Excellent Value Up Companies for the first time in May 2025.
5. Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (February 11)
- Hong Kong’s secular bull market gained after DeepSeek’s announcement ignited shares in the tech sector.
- Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) broke out to new high after it announced its DAU for WPS exceeded 100mm. Kingsoft Cloud Holdings (3896 HK) is benefiting from the AI rally.
- BYD (1211 HK) broke out to an all-time high after announcing it would offer its ADA service for free. The move caused Tesla (TSLA US) shares to fall.
6. The Drill – What will world peace mean for markets?
- All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order.
- For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday.
- This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.
7. Impact of Nextrade Alternative Trading System Going Live on the Korean Stock Market on 4 March
- Nextrade (NXT) is an alternative trading system (ATS) in Korea which will start to go live on 4 March.
- Nextrade provided a list of 10 stocks including Lotte Shopping, Cheil Worldwide, Kolon Industries, LG Uplus, and S Oil that will start to trade on NXT starting 4 March.
- Most of these 10 stocks tend to be lower beta stocks with relatively low amounts of share volatility. These 10 stocks are up on average 2.8% YTD, underperforming KOSPI.
8. The Rise of Quant Investing in Crypto w/ Truvius CEO Connor Farley | The New Barbarians #007
- The podcast is called New Barbarians and focuses on digital assets and opportunities in the market
- The special guest, Connor Farley, is the CEO and co-founder of Truvias, an SEC registered investment advisor specializing in digital asset portfolio management
- The current market trends include rising inflation concerns, increasing interest in gold, and the potential for Bitcoin to act as digital gold, according to the hosts and guest.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
9. Advancements in Portfolio Construction & Optimization | The New Barbarians – AI Agent Deep Dive #001
- The podcast discusses advanced portfolio optimization techniques in the world of digital assets
- Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a key concept in investing, but newer models and techniques like Black Litterman and shrinkage estimators are being used to address limitations
- Thematic model grouping and consolidated alpha optimization are two key approaches to portfolio construction discussed in the episode.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
10. Early Days of New Trump Administration
- The early days of the Trump administration has seen lots of volatility around the tariffs with Canada and Mexico, but the more stable U.S. Treasury market helps provide an anchor.
- U.S. Treasuries have shift towards the view that the 10yr budget bill will be delayed until H2 and likely be only modestly stimulative in 2026.
- Combined with the Fed still leaving the door open to rate cuts this has helped avoid major directional movements.
Singapore, 13 February 2025 – Smartkarma, a leading global investment intelligence platform, has expanded its coverage to include all US IPOs with a deal size greater than $75 million, providing institutional investors with real-time insights, premium data analytics, and access to top-ranked analysts.
This latest expansion underscores Smartkarma’s commitment to delivering institutional-grade intelligence, ensuring investors have access to timely, high-quality analysis of the most significant market events.
Expanding ECM Research Coverage
With the growing significance of US IPO activity in global equity markets, Smartkarma now provides investors with comprehensive analysis on all US IPOs surpassing $75 million in deal size. In the past 30 days, 54 insights on 17 US IPOs have been published on Smartkarma.
Recent Equity Capital Markets (ECM) research on Smartkarma from IPO Boutique includes:
- Venture Global (VG): Rich valuation raises questions about being already priced for perfection. Read more
- Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price sensitivity emerges in another IPO. Read more
- SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL): First software IPO of the year—Thoma Bravo seeks $11.5 billion valuation. Read more
Top Insight Providers Driving ECM Research
Investors on Smartkarma gain access to deep, independent analysis from leading Insight Providers covering ECM:
- IPO Boutique – With over 20 years of experience in US Equity Capital Markets, IPO Boutique offers pre-IPO research, live trading analysis, and high-touch access to institutional investors.
🔗 Latest research: SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) – Blowout Expected as Investors Pile into First Software IPO of 2025 - Aequitas Research – Specializing in IPOs, placements, and equity capital markets across the Asia-Pacific region, Aequitas Research applies a quantitative framework to deliver holistic views on new listings.
🔗 Latest research: Alibaba (BABA) 3Q25 Preview: Benefit from Boycott Against Competitor and Disposals - Douglas Research Advisory – A seasoned research provider with nearly 30 years of expertise in Korean and Asian equity markets, covering technology, consumer, and M&A trends.
🔗 Latest research: Block Deal Sale of About 278 Billion Won of Samsung Electronics by Samsung Life and Samsung F&M - Global Equity Research Ltd – Established by a team of experienced professionals, this firm focuses on delivering independent, conflict-free, bottom-up fundamental research across global markets.
🔗 Latest research: HKBN (1310 HK): A Press Report Causes Trepidation - Andrei Zakharov – A seasoned investment professional with 10+ years of experience spanning equity capital markets, corporate treasury, investment banking, and portfolio management.
🔗 Latest research: SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26
With this expansion, Smartkarma further strengthens its position as a leading provider of investment intelligence, delivering actionable insights across an ever-growing range of market opportunities.
About Smartkarma
Smartkarma is a global investment intelligence platform based in Singapore. It provides institutional investors with actionable insights, high-touch analyst access and specialist data subscriptions to make informed investment decisions. With a focus on innovation and technology, Smartkarma offers a wide range of data solutions and analytics across various sectors, including equities and commodities. Smartkarma Shareholders include the Singapore Exchange (SGX), Enterprise Singapore Seeds Capital, Peak XV (formerly Sequoia Capital), Wavemaker and Jungle Ventures. Learn more at smartkarma.com.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?
- Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
- AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
- H125 is a reset period for AMD’s Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn’t mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.
2. Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?
- Rapidus Corporation — The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
- How Rapidus Compares to TSMC — Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
- Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC — Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.
3. Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC’s Massive New 1nm GIGAFAB in Development; Can Japan Build the Next TSMC?
- TSMC Expands 2nm & Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm “GIGAFAB” in the South — Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
- Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
- Apple Supply Chain Monitor — Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory
4. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Rebounds to Strong Premium; ASE Near Parity
- TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium
- ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
- ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level
5. MediaTek (2454.TT): A Good Start in 1Q25; D9500 Launched After About 1H25; China Subsidy.
- The upcoming 1Q25 could be relatively flat or slightly higher than 4Q24, which represents a better start than usual due to seasonal effects.
- The Dimistry 8400/9400 models have been successful sellers, and a new Dimistry 9500 is expected to be launched after the first half of 2025. (link)
- The China electronic household subsidy program, including smartphone, has resulted in over 8 million sales in shipments within 4 days on Jan 25.
6. MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.
- 1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses.
- Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.
- GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon’s effect on resource allocation.
7. Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve…
- Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
- In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.
- A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit
8. PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market
- Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market
- Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights — Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share
- Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights — Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Guming Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
- Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
- In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.
2. LG CNS IPO: Trading Debut
- LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) priced its IPO at KRW61,900 per share to raise gross proceeds of US$820 million. The shares will start trading on 5 February.
- We previously discussed the IPO in LG CNS IPO: The Bull Case, LG CNS IPO: The Bear Case and LG CNS IPO: Valuation Insights.
- Since the prospectus’s release, the peers have marginally re-rated. The valuation remains undemanding at the IPO price, and bullish grey market prices suggest a strong debut.
3. Guming Holdings (1364 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Good me), a freshly-made tea store brand, has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$202 million.
- We previously discussed the IPO in Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bull Case and Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO: The Bear Case.
- There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests that Guming is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.
4. LG CNS IPO Trading – Demand Aided by Domestics, Limited Lockup Undertaking
- LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) raised around US$825m in its Korea IPO. LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company.
- LG CNS is a South Korean information technology company. The firm primarily provides comprehensive digital transformation services and solutions backed AI, big data, and cloud.
- In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.
5. LG CNS: First Day Trading Strategy Post IPO
- In this insight, we discuss the first day trading strategy of LG CNS which starts trading on 5 February.
- On the first day of trading, we believe LG CNS’s shares could trade at higher levels, overshooting its intrinsic valuations.
- We recommend investors to take some profits off the table if the share price shoots higher by 30% to 50%+ from the IPO price on the first day.
6. Guming IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Is It Time to Sip or Skip?
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is offering 158.6 million shares in a price range of HK$8.68 to HK$9.94 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$1.58 Bn.
- Despite outperforming peers in revenue and profit growth, Guming is grappling with a bleak macro environment, operational slowdowns, and intensified competition.
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) ‘s faltering operating metrics for last reporting period cast doubt on its near-term growth and profitability outlook—leaving investors to ask: Sip or skip?
7. ECM Weekly (3rd Feb 2025) – Seoul Guarantee, Dr Agarwal’s, Ather Energy, Hexaware, Visen Pharma
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, we had a look at the valuations for Dr. Agarwal’s Eye Hospital and Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS).
- On the placements front, given the holiday shortened week, there were no placements this week.
8. Trump Admin’s Tariff Headlines Obscure Suspension Of “De Minimis” Rule | Big Impact on SHEIN, Temu
- By executive order, President Trump suspended section 321 (“de minimis“) imports on Feb 4th
- Direct-To-Consumer imports valued at < US$800 may no longer enter the US duty-free
- Added cost and new paperwork burden (both borne by US consumers) to hit SHEIN, Temu
9. Whirlpool of India OFS Early Look – Another Large Selldown by Parent
- Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) is looking to raise about INR 46bn (US$530m) from selling a stake of about 31% in Whirlpool of India Limited (WHIRL).
- In an announcement released on Jan 30, 2025, the firm mentioned its ultimate parent’s intention to sell down its interest in WHIRL from 51% to 20% by mid-to-late 2025.
- In this note, we talk about the past deal performance and other deal dynamics.
10. Guming Holdings (Good Me) IPO Preview
- Guming Holdings (1364 HK) (Good Me) is getting ready to complete its IPO on the Hong Kong Exchange in February.
- At the high end of the IPO price range, the listing will raise about HK$1.58 billion (US$220 million).
- Guming is a ready-to-drink beverage company specializing in freshly made tea beverages.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February
- Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-June.
- The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
- Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 13 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in February.
2. FXI ETF: Potential Changes in the Year of the Snake
- There could be 1/2 changes to the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March. Then there will be more changes as large Chinese companies list H-shares on the HKEX.
- Fast Entries and regular inclusion of newly listed H-shares will change the characteristics of the FXI and there could be further deviations from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
- That will provide opportunities for index rebalance traders as well as volatility traders that are active on the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) options.
3. Taiwan’s Yageo (2327 TT) Announces Hostile Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) – I Have 🍿🍿
- Today, Taiwanese passive components maker Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) announced its Board had approved the launching of a Tender on Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
- It turns out YAGEO approached them in October, Shibaura stonewalled for 3mos, required an NDA to meet, and refused to budge. METI Corporate Takeover Guidelines were likely ignored.
- This could set off a flurry of activity including competition, an auction, promises of dividends, and who knows what. It will be exciting but it’s not C&F.
4. Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ): Global Index Inclusion Likely This Month
- Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) stock has gone through a series of gyrations as index inclusion was announced and then retracted due to the concentrated holding of the stock.
- With pre-IPO PE/VC investors selling some stock, the increase in float could result in the inclusion of Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) in a global index later this month.
- The inclusion of the stock in the index will require passive trackers to buy just over 400m shares of the stock. That is over 14x ADV and will be impactful.
5. STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: One Is Meh; The Other Is👍
- With the review period complete, we forecast 3 changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 8 changes for the STAR100 Index. There are a few migrations between the indices.
- We estimate turnover of 3.8% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 9.9% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated net round-trip trade is CNY 13bn (US$1.8bn).
- The forecast adds to the STAR50 INDEX have underperformed the forecast deletes. For the STAR100 Index outright changes, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes by a lot.
6. Kyocera (6971) – Changes Policies – Will Sell KDDI Faster and Buy Back Shares
- Today, in conjunction with the release of Q3 earnings, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced a change in its Corporate Governance Code doc, a change in Cross-holding Policy, and Buyback Policy.
- Full-Year earnings guidance revision was non-salutary. Revs -1%, OP -69%, Net Profit -72% vs previous predictions from 30 October (those were -1.5%, -38.2%, -36.6% vs April guidance at the time).
- Based on this disappointment, they announced they would speed up the sale of crossholdings and buy back shares this year and over the following three years.
7. KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Potential Changes in June; LG CNS Listing Could Increase That
- Halfway through the review period, there could be 6 changes for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) in June. The LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) listing could increase that number.
- The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 2.1-26 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 5-11 days of ADV.
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few months and the performance gap is near its widest point.
8. KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Smaller Deal Than Usual
- The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced first week of March and implemented at the close of trading on 13 March.
- We forecast two changes for the Bio Index and one change for the Internet Index. Plus there will be capping changes for all indices.
- The largest flows will be in Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution, POSCO Holdings, Alteogen, Naver Corp, Legochem Biosciences, Netmarble and Celltrion Inc.
9. Osaka Steel (5449) Large Buyback At a Discount Ruins Fun For Activists
- Osaka Steel (5449 JP) is 65% owned by Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP). They make a relatively simple set of steel products used by shipbuilders, construction companies, and warehouse builders.
- Activist Effissimo Capital went over 5% in October 2016 and is still a top holder. Activist Strategic Capital went over 5% in December 2023 and now owns 10+% of votes.
- The “hope” had been that Nippon Steel buy out minorities and Osaka Steel would be rescued from mediocre capital returns. That was not to be. Activists are disappointed.
10. Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February
- There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
- With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
- With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. DeepSeek R1. Ahem, This Is Awkward..
- DeepSeek’s R1 is a game changer that’s taken the world by storm. It’s a fantastic accomplishment by a Chinese team and a huge endorsement of the open source approach
- US competitors have egg on their faces now, but they will adapt. Competition is always a good thing & the future of AI just got a whole lot brighter
- Last night’s selloff was a Chinese New Year gift. Just accept it. Happy CNY to all!
2. Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium
- PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
- Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth?
- TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US.
3. Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth?
- SK Hynix Expects 100% HBM Revenue Growth in 2025E After a Massive 2024 — Which Means Traditional DRAM Doesn’t Matter as Much Anymore
- DeepSeek Market Fears — A Problem for HBM & Enterprise SSD Memory?
- AI Industry Opportunities Are Not a Fixed Size Pie — Will DeepSeek Impact HBM DRAM TAM? Why We Don’t Think So
4. PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
- Recent U.S. Market Weakness Appears to Have Been More Focused on Falling Sentiment for Server Businesses, Not PCs
- CES 2025 Showed Qualcomm Chips Gaining Momentum in PCs, While AMD Continued Aggressive Competition — Intel Under Pressure
- PC Maker Universe to Experience Decent Revenue Growth in 2025E — Structural Long Asustek & Dell
5. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Dramatic Spreads Open Up After DeepSeek Rout & Taiwan Market Closure
- TSMC: 10.8% Premium; Taiwanese Investors Likely to Be Less Shocked by DeepSeek News?
- UMC: -7.3% Discount; The Latest Extreme Discount Cannot Be Sustained
- ASE: -10.2% Discount; This Extreme Discount Also Cannot Be Sustained
6. ASML. Strong Finish For 24, Robust Outlook For 25 With AI As Key Growth Driver
- ASML reported Q424 revenues of €9.3 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 24% QoQ and up 28.5% YoY.
- Full year 2024 revenue amounted to €28.3 billion, up 2.7% YoY and a modest improvement on the previously forecasted zero growth
- Guided full year 2025 revenues to be in the $30-$35 billion range, representing a 15% YoY increase at the midpoint.
7. Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Latest AAPL Results — Taiwan Suppliers Well Placed for Monday Re-Open
- Apple 1Q25 Results — Overall Price-Supportive for Taiwan Supplier Share Prices When the Taiwan Market Re-Opens Monday
- Why Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) and Kinsus Interconnect Tech (3189 TT) Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory
- Increasingly sophisticated Apple products require significantly more complex PCBs & interconnect solutions, especially as advanced packaging has become a key enabler of high-performance computing.
8. Semiconductor’s Over-Dependency on AI
- A new AI platform named DeepSeek threatens today’s Large Language Model status quo
- Certain chip companies have become over-dependent on AI, including Nvidia, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron, and their stock has tumbled
- It’s too early to tell what will occur over the long term
9. Intel Q424. It’s A Journey, Not A Destination
- Q424 revenues of $14.3 billion which was $500 million above the guided midpoint, down 7% YoY but up 7.5% QoQ.
- Forecasted Q125 revenues of $12.2 billion at the midpoint, down $500 million YoY and down 15% QoQ
- Transition to EUV abysmally slow, Falcon Shores cancelled, Clearwater Forest delayed, GMs will see some improvement or mixed improvement in 2026.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Capital Markets on Smartkarma.
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1. Dr Agarwal’s Healthcare IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
- Dr Agarwal’s Health Care Ltd (8140044Z IN) is looking to raise about US$350m in its India IPO. The deal is downsized from an earlier reported size of around US$480m.
- Dr Agarwal’s Health Care is a healthcare/hospital chain in India providing eyecare services, including surgeries; consultations, diagnoses, non-surgical treatments; and sells opticals, contact lens, accessories and eyecare related pharmaceutical products.
- Previously, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on peer comparison and valuation.
2. Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO
- While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
- Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut.
- Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds.
3. SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26
- SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
- The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
- I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.
4. Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors
- The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors.
- According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
- Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.
5. SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
- All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024.
- Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO.
6. ECM Weekly (27th Jan 2025) – CATL, HDB Financial, Dr Agarwal’s, Eco-Shop, Vikran, Sanil, Timee
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, we had a look at the possible A/H listing for Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), along with a few large IPOs in India .
- On the placements front, while there weren’t any large deals launched, we did look at the lockup expiry for Timee Inc (215A JP) and Sanil Electric (062040 KS).
7. Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD): Price Sensitivity Emerges in Another IPO
- Sources have stated that the deal is experiencing “pushback” from the buy-side on the price.
- Fresh on the mind of IPO investors is the underperforming energy deal, Venture Global (VG)
- Price sensitivity in the deal is a stark signal to exercise caution on this IPO at this time
8. Doosan Enerbility: Thoughts on the IPO of Doosan Skoda Power
- Doosan Skoda Power is getting ready to complete an IPO on the Prague Stock Exchange. The IPO is aiming to gather up to 2.53 billion crowns, or about US$105.5 million.
- Post IPO, Doosan Power System plans to maintain a 67% ownership. Doosan Enerbility (034020 KS) owns a 100% stake in Doosan Power Systems.
- If Doosan Skoda Power is valued at 8.3 billion crowns and if we annualize the company’s net profit to 473 billion in 2024, this would suggest a P/E of 17.5x.
9. Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD): IPO Opens with Heavy Selling Pressure, Closes Below Issue
- The company priced a downsized transaction of 26.08mm shares (down from 34.8mm) at $20.00 (original range $23-$27) and opened at $21.05 for a gain of 5.3% at first trade.
- A broken IPO usually hurts the psyche of the IPO market in the short term.
- The healthcare space will be looking to give IPOs a boost during the second half of the week with much stronger deals set to debut.
10. Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut
- The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
- According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
- The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.
This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
- Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
- The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
- The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.
2. Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec Merger: The Many Index Flows Around the Corner
- Haitong Securities (H) (6837 HK) and Haitong Securities (A) (600837 CH) shares will stop trading after 5 February following the merger with Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK).
- There will be small buying in Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) at the close on 5 February and there should be more buying in the A-shares and H-shares in March.
- There will also be a stock added to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) to bring the number of index constituents back to 300.
3. Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade
- With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
- If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
- Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.
4. Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
- Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Chemist Warehouse (CWG) shareholders have approved the merger with 99.86% and 100% of the votes cast in favour.
- The Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be implemented on 12 February, which is when the passive buying could commence.
- Sigma Healthcare has continued to trade higher on a record margin and sales expansion for CWG and expected passive buying that could top A$3bn over the next few months.
5. 3D Launches Partial Tender Offer on NTT UD REIT (8956)
- Seemingly out of the blue, Singapore-based activist investment fund 3D Investment Partners has launched a partial tender offer at a small premium on NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP).
- 3DIP currently owns 2.2% and at maximum, will own 15.00% of the REIT units outstanding less treasury units. It intends to own the units for “pure investment purposes.”
- “Shareholder” structure is different for J-REITs vs companies. And this J-REIT has an interesting future possibility. But…
6. Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance: DeepSeek Led Selloff & 1 Delete
- Solactive has announced the constituent changes for the Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index. There is only 1 delete with implementation at the close on 31 January.
- As expected, GoviEx Uranium (GXU CN) will be deleted from the index and there will be a bunch of capping changes, especially for non-pure play stocks.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 5.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$386m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
7. Indian Renewable Energy (IREDA IN) QIP: Index Implications
- IREDA has announced a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) of a maximum of INR 50bn as long as the Government of India’s holding does not drop by more than 7%.
- There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the QIP shares while the increase in float will bring the stock closer to inclusion in another global index.
- With the stock close to index inclusion level and down 37% from its peak, there could be positioning in the stock for passive inflows.
8. PCOMP Index Rebalance: AREIT, CBC to Replace NIKL, WLCON
- As forecast, Areit (AyalaLand REIT) (AREIT PM) and China Banking (CBC PM) will replace Nickel Asia (NIKL PM) and Wilcon Depot (WLCON PM) in the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index.
- Passive trackers will need to buy between 14-44 days of ADV in the adds while selling between 17-54 days of ADV in the deletes.
- The stocks have already moved a lot over the last few months and positioning has built up over that period. There could still be outperformance ahead of the passives trading.
9. Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF
- Today after the close, Global Food Creators (7559 JP) announced that the CEO would sell his 1.23% of the company into an MBO by a company he set up.
- The family company which owns 27%, and he would fund the takeover of the other 73% with 1% equity taken from his share sale, and 99% bank loans.
- The TOB is at 0.65x book for a cash-rich company. Liquidate the cash and the rest is being taken over at 0.33x book. Aaaaargh.
10. EQD | DeepSeek’s New AI: Price Supports and Broader Implications for META, NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100
- News that DeepSeek’s latest AI release appears to be superior to latest OpenAI’s ChatGPT in most (if not all) of the benchmark tasks have apparently shaken markets today.
- DeepSeek may be able to beat its competitors (including other AI developed by other US companies like Meta Platforms (META US) ), using lower cost chips and less data.
- Tech companies like NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are falling hard (like -12%) in pre-market, and so are the US Indices. Let’s see where support for reversal rallies can be found.
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This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Tech Hardware and Semiconductor on Smartkarma.
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1. UMC. Now I’m Interested…
- UMC reported Q424 revenues of NT$60,386 million, flat sequentially and in line with guidance.
- For the full year 2024, revenues amounted to NT$232,303 million, representing an increase of 4.4% YoY.
- Share price at a 4 year low and the outlook is still tepid, but almost $6 billion CapEx invested during the downturn years will pay dividends in the coming years..
2. Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Down But Still Extreme; UMC Rare ADR Discount Level
- TSMC: +23.9% Premium; Fallen But Remains in Historically Extreme Territory
- UMC: -3.6% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the ADR Spread
- ASE: +0.3% Premium; Can Consider Going Long the Spread at Current Level
3. UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Earthquake Alters 1Q25 Outlook; 2025 Growth Expected to Low Single Digits YoY
- Shipment: expected to decrease by mid-single-digits QoQ ASP: Remains flat in USD/NTD appreciation may lead to decline for 1Q25 sales.
- UMC’s addressable market in 2025 will grow in the low-single-digits YoY, driven by a moderate recovery in consumer applications in mature nodes.
- 1Q25 consumer will grow QoQ thanks to higher DTV, DDI, Wi-Fi, and STB demand. Other applications will decline QoQ.
4. Taiwan Tech Weekly: UMC Results Ahead; Nvidia & TSMC Partner for Silicon Photonics Technology
- UMC Results This Week; Insight Into Supply/Demand Environment for More Mature Semiconductor Segments
- Nvidia and TSMC Announce Partnership in Silicon Photonics Technology — Will Enable More Energy-Efficient AI
- TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth
5. Silicon Motion: Memory Controllers Emerging as Strategic Pillar for Global HPC and AI Leadership
- What is PCIe 5.0 and Why SIMO is Poised to Expand Market Share with PCIe 5.0
- PCIe 5.0 and Beyond — Importance for Enterprise HPC and AI Data Centers
- Looking Ahead: MaxLinear Arbitration in 2H25E — We Believe SIMO Likely to Win Its Termination Fee Plus Additional Award for Additional Damages
6. Stargate. It’s Not All About You Microsoft. Or You Either Elon
- President Donald Trump announced the Stargate Project, a new company which intends to invest $500 billion over four years building new AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States.
- Elon Musk is miffed, Microsoft says they “approved” the project and have a new Right of First Refusal agreement in place with OpenAI.
- Stargate is exclusively for OpenAI and the press release states that its mission is to provide a strategic capability to protect the national security of America and its allies.
7. United Microelectronics 4Q24 Results: Intel Partnership On Track and Is A Key Model for UMC’s Future
- UMC Misses 4Q24 Expectations — Gross Margin Dips with Flat QoQ Revenue
- UMC Guides for 40% Reduction in Capex Budget — We Believe Signals Strategic Shift to Less Capex Intensive Business Model
- Intel 12nm Partnership Remains on Track and is Key Business Model for Future; UMC Sees Improvement in Consumer Electronics Industry Inventories
8. TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US.
- Taiwan experienced an earthquake on January 21st, and the tremors are still ongoing.
- Dr. CC Wei, Chairman of TSMC, explained the establishment of over 10,000 additional Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) at the U.S. Fab.
- The yield at TSMC’s Arizona fab is about 4% higher than at their Tainan fab, marking a record for initial production.
9. Novatek (3034.TT): Rush Orders Received and Beneficial from Chinese Household Electronic Demand.
- Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) 1Q25 demand has surged abruptly, with a likely 5% quarter-over-quarter shipment increase.
- China’s substantial demand is capable of supporting a Fabless leader like Novatek.
- The unexpected demand surge in 1Q25 has greatly benefited Novatek .
10. Vanguard (5347.TT): 1Q25 Outlook Could See a Flat QoQ; Shipments for DDIC and PMIC Are Increasing.
- Usually, the 1st quarter of each year should show a decline for foundry companies, but Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)‘s 1Q25 results could be relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.
- Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)‘s demand for Display Driver IC (DDIC) is on the rise, surpassing the growth seen in Power Management IC (PMIC).
- Despite the potential increase in shipments in 1Q25, the rise in lower-margin products, such as 8″ DDICs for large panels, is notable.