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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: DAM Capital, Bitcoin Pro, China Jinmao Holdings, Princess Private Equity Holdin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • DAM Capital Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • A Tale of Two Markets
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Continuum Green Energy, Sands China
  • Partners Group Private Equity – Healthy realisations in H124


DAM Capital Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • DAM Capital (930970Z IN) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Nuvama Wealth.
  • DAM Capital provides a range of financial solutions in investment banking comprising equity capital markets, mergers and acquisitions, private equity, structured finance advisory; and institutional equities comprising broking and research.
  • According to CRISIL, DAM Capital was the fastest growing investment bank in India by revenue CAGR from FY22-24 along with the highest profit margin in FY24.

A Tale of Two Markets

By Delphi Digital

  • TradFi shows resilience, while crypto struggles—BTC is down, and ETH underperforms US Treasuries.
  • Powell’s Pivot promises hope, but crypto markets await the real demand catalyst for recovery.
  • Despite market weakness, short-term opportunities exist—learn to navigate price action and volume dynamics.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Continuum Green Energy, Sands China

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Partners Group Private Equity – Healthy realisations in H124

By Edison Investment Research

Partners Group Private Equity received a strong €103.7m in realisation proceeds in H124 (c 11% of opening NAV). Proceeds of €70.2m came from the successful sale of SRS Distribution to Home Depot at a more than 30% uplift to the previous carrying value (contributing to Partners Group Private Equity’s 4.1% NAV total return in H124), which resulted in a healthy gross multiple on invested capital (MOIC) of over 5x since its investment in this business in 2018. There are a number of exit candidates in the company’s portfolio, with 29% of its current investments by value held at a gross total value to paid-in capital multiple of more than 2.0x.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 6th): Posco and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 6th): Posco


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 6th): Posco

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Sep 6th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD4.9bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Posco (005490 KS) .

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Daily Brief ESG: Disclosure Is Important and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Disclosure Is Important, but Walk the Talk Is More Important


Disclosure Is Important, but Walk the Talk Is More Important

By Aki Matsumoto

  • If a company seeks immediate effects to improve capital profitability, it’ll return cash to shareholders because it’ll be years before the company can recoup it by making more investments now.
  • Even companies that have increased valuations by raising their capital profitability can improve it by reducing their cash on hand and policy shareholdings, which are still too large.
  • Companies with low capital profitability and low valuations have to gain investor confidence through quarterly earnings disclosures by demonstrating that their disclosed goals are achievable.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The US Biosecure Act: A Boon for Indian CDMO Players? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The US Biosecure Act: A Boon for Indian CDMO Players?
  • Ohayo Japan | Stocks Slightly Higher
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/1519 HK/ZTO US
  • Tech Daily. Apple (Boring), Huawei (Wow), Samsung, AI, EVs in Focus
  • Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Towards AI May See Japan SPE Gains
  • # 58 India Insight: Adani Green Redeemed Notes, Jio Financial & Blackrock JV, BoB Raises INR 5 Bn
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/NTES US/1024 HK/3690 HK/PDD US/JD US/BABA US/1810 HK/SE US


The US Biosecure Act: A Boon for Indian CDMO Players?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The U.S. House passed the Biosecure Act, mandating U.S. pharma firms to cut ties with specific Chinese biotechs by 2032.
  • This opens opportunities for Indian CDMOs, positioning them as viable alternatives due to geopolitical alignment and regulatory quality.
  • India’s CDMOs could see substantial growth, benefiting from increased global diversification efforts away from China.

Ohayo Japan | Stocks Slightly Higher

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors braced for an upcoming consumer inflation report crucial to potential Fed rate cuts
  • Japan Machine Tool Manufacturers’ Association reported a 4% decrease in August orders to 110.7 billion yen.
  • Sony will launch the PlayStation 5 Pro on November 7, featuring AI-enhanced visuals, a more powerful GPU, and doubled storage capacity

[Blue Lotus Daily]:AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US/1519 HK/ZTO US

By Eric Wen

  • AAPL US/1810 HK/981 HK: iPhone 16 sees negative initial reception in China (-/+/+)
  • 981 HK: SenseTime announces 54,000 GPU cluster, likely supplied by Huawei (+)
  • 1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Tesla officially announced that it will launch FSD in China in the first quarter of 2025.(///////)

Tech Daily. Apple (Boring), Huawei (Wow), Samsung, AI, EVs in Focus

By Neil Campling


Japan Morning Connection: Rotation Towards AI May See Japan SPE Gains

By Andrew Jackson

  • Strong tech rebound off the morning lows with AI related names starting to pick up favour again helped by good numbers from Oracle.
  • The hefty price tag for Sony’s PS5 Pro is unlikely to appeal to casual gamers, but should still boost sales in the interim as a mid-cycle boost for the PlayStation.
  • Fujitsu’s IR day yesterday sets an upbeat tone, but lacks catalysts which could help push the stock to new highs.

# 58 India Insight: Adani Green Redeemed Notes, Jio Financial & Blackrock JV, BoB Raises INR 5 Bn

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Green Energy redeemed $750 million Holdco Notes, advancing its 50 GW renewable capacity target.
  • Jio Financial and BlackRock form a joint venture to offer investment advisory services in India.
  • Bank of Baroda raises INR 5,000 crore through infrastructure bonds, underscoring strong investor demand.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:700 HK/NTES US/1024 HK/3690 HK/PDD US/JD US/BABA US/1810 HK/SE US

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK: Tencent’s <Honor of Kings: World>to Launch in 2025.(+)
  • 700 HK: Tencent’s <Delta Force> to Launch on September 26 for PC and Mobile (+)
  • 700 HK/NTES US: Tencent and NetEase Announce Playtime Restrictions for Minors During Mid-Autumn and National Day Holidays (/)

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Staples and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

By Joe Jasper

  • Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
  • Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it’s likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
  • At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.

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Daily Brief ECM: Midea Group HK IPO Valuation Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group HK IPO Valuation Analysis
  • NEXTDC Placement – Good Track Record but Seems Opportunistic
  • LG Electronics India IPO: Potential Big Gains. Booming Demand, Buoyant Valuations
  • Midea HK Listing: Valuation Insights
  • National Infrastructure Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Key Updates on Bicara Therapeutics IPO: ~$800M Valuation at the Midpoint and Strong Balance Sheet


Midea Group HK IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • We would subscribe to the HK offering of Midea Group due to its attractive valuations, strong fundamentals, and meaningful price discount relative to the A shares. 
  • We believe a premium valuation relative to the comps is appropriate for Midea Group due to its higher sales growth, EBIT margin, and ROE.
  • Pricing of this offering is expected to be completed on 13 September and listing on 17 September. 

NEXTDC Placement – Good Track Record but Seems Opportunistic

By Sumeet Singh

  • Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU) aims to raise around US$366m via a fully underwritten institutional placement, along with another US$133m via a non-underwritten SPP.
  • The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have done ok. Although this one appears to be a bit opportunistic.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

LG Electronics India IPO: Potential Big Gains. Booming Demand, Buoyant Valuations

By Devi Subhakesan

  • LG Electronics’s India business IPO could be valued above USD 7 billion, exceeding market expectations, driven by its dominant position in India’s growing home appliances market and strong sector valuations.
  • Favourable market conditions and robust sector growth make now an ideal time for LG Electronics (066570 KS) to launch its India IPO, securing high investor interest and compelling valuations.
  • In a recent interview, LG Electronics(066570 KS)  CEO William Cho mentioned that an Indian market debut is one of several options being considered to revitalise the company’s consumer electronics business.

Midea HK Listing: Valuation Insights

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chinese home appliance maker Midea has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to raise $3.46bn at an indicative price range of HK$52.0-54.8 per share.
  • The company has a diversified product portfolio, well-balanced exposure to domestic as well as overseas markets and a growing robotics business.
  • As we expected, the HK offering is priced at around 25% discount to it’s A-shares and our analysis suggests that Midea’s HK offering is priced attractively. 

National Infrastructure Trust Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • National Infrastructure Trust (NIT IN) is looking to raise about US$190m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by SBI Caps and HDFC Bank.
  • National Infrastructure Trust is an infrastructure investment trust established to acquire, manage and invest in a portfolio of infrastructure assets in India.
  • Its initial asset portfolio will consist of nine road assets, in the states of Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka with an aggregate length of ~683.875km.

Key Updates on Bicara Therapeutics IPO: ~$800M Valuation at the Midpoint and Strong Balance Sheet

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Bicara Therapeutics unveiled the terms of its IPO: a clinical-stage biotech company offers ~11.8M shares at the price range of $16.00-$18.00, implying a market cap of ~$800M at the midpoint.
  • Existing shareholders do not intend to sell shares in this offering and Bicara Therapeutics shares will list on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “BCAX”.
  • The biotech company is focused on patients with HPV-negative head and neck cancer, and I view Bicara’s IPO valuation as attractive, with major catalysts coming up in 2025.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play
  • Are Index Inclusions an Alpha Opportunity?
  • Timing a Trade to Capitalize on KT’s November Global Index Deletion and the ETF Recall
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (September 2024)
  • PC Partner (1263 HK): Goodbye Hong Kong; Hello Singapore
  • Joban Kosan (9675) – Fortress Buys Out a Fukushima Tourism Asset
  • Itochu’s Big Plans for Descente – Shame Investors Won’t Get a Look In
  • S&P 500/400/600 Changes – DELL, PLTR, and ERIE Added, AAL, ETSY, BIO Deleted


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): State of Play

By Arun George

  • Despite Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s rejection, Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) remains prepared to enter collaborative and friendly discussions to focus on finding greater value for 7&i shareholders. 
  • Couche-Tard’s options are to return with a revised offer, go hostile or walk away. Couche-Tard will likely test the Board’s resolve by returning with a higher offer.
  • The Board’s options are to go through the motions (appointing IFAs), conduct a market check or launch a more aggressive action plan to placate restive shareholders. 

Are Index Inclusions an Alpha Opportunity?

By Money of Mine

  • ASX 200 index rebalancing: West Gold and Yancoal added, Strike Energy removed
  • Impact on stock prices and trading dynamics around index inclusions and removals
  • Observations on companies prematurely entering the index and facing challenges after being removed

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Timing a Trade to Capitalize on KT’s November Global Index Deletion and the ETF Recall

By Sanghyun Park

  • KT’s foreign room is likely staying below 3.75% for November, setting up an ETF recall play. We’ve seen short-term buying pressure in similar past index reshuffles.
  • The ETF recall impact peaks right after the announcement. KT’s May downweight saw a 5% spike in two trading days post-announcement.
  • KT’s price moves more with downweights than SK Telecom’s because of higher overseas borrowing demand. This trend should hold, so setting up a position before the November announcement makes sense.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (September 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA


PC Partner (1263 HK): Goodbye Hong Kong; Hello Singapore

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18th June, personal computer parts and accessories play PC Partner (1263 HK) (PCP) announced a SGX listing was under consideration; and a possible withdrawal of the HKEx listing.
  • PCP’s 30th August announcement provided clarity on a step-by-step approach for the HKEx withdrawal. I recently held zooms with the SFC and SGX for added clarification.
  • PCP’s exchange relocation is predicated on PCP’s operational expansion into new markets, in particular, Southeast Asia. How and when the SGX becomes the preferred trading exchange  remains an unanswered question. 

Joban Kosan (9675) – Fortress Buys Out a Fukushima Tourism Asset

By Travis Lundy

  • In the annals of foreign buyers of Japanese tourism-related real estate assets, there have been a few good examples, and several disasters. Yesterday, we got a new suitor for assets. 
  • Fortress SPV Ontario GK will attempt to buy out Fukushima-based Joban Kosan (9675 JP) through a double Tender Offer. 
  • There is a history here of a bump on an MBO on an associated company. That may have caused it to trade at a premium on Day 1. It’s unrelated.

Itochu’s Big Plans for Descente – Shame Investors Won’t Get a Look In

By Michael Causton

  • Itochu’s Textile division continues to execute the directive from its CEO to expand reach and coverage in the fashion and lifestyle sectors, with sports one of the major target categories.
  • It will completely absorb Descente as part of this plan, meaning the brand is likely to become one of the largest in the portfolio.
  • The ongoing tender offer will likely succeed giving Itochu a bargain and investors no stake in the future.

S&P 500/400/600 Changes – DELL, PLTR, and ERIE Added, AAL, ETSY, BIO Deleted

By Travis Lundy

  • Last Friday, the S&P Index Committee announced the changes to the S&P500, S&P400, S&P600, and other indices, along with the result of a recent consultation on capping methodology.
  • The result is about US$23bn a side of flows for the major indices
  • In the S&P500, DELL, PLTR, and ERIE are ADDs. AAL, ETSY, and BIO are DELETEs. But as always, just knowing the names is deceptive. The history matters more.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC 33% Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC 33% Growth, UMC Headroom Decrease, ASE Historically Low Premium
  • The Beat Ideas- Krsnaa Diagnostics: B2C & Asset Light Flavor
  • Portfolio Update: August 2024
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Sep-2024): Global smartphones, 2Q ’24
  • [NIO Inc. (NIO US, SELL, TP US$1) Target Price Change]: Who Is Going to Give in a Slowing EV Market?
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Becoming More Dominant; Apple’s AI Opportunity; Taiwan Market Hammered
  • CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Where Is the End of the Tunnel?
  • Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation – Capitulation in Oil and Related Equities Almost Complete?
  • Cynd (4256) – Tuesday, Jun 11, 2024
  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) – Streaming Ahead with AI


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC 33% Growth, UMC Headroom Decrease, ASE Historically Low Premium

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +15.9% Premium; Sales Rose 33% YoY in August & Headroom Increased
  • UMC: +1.8% Premium; Largest Monthly Decrease in ADR Headroom, Has Consistently Been Decreasing Since May
  • ASE: +2.0% Premium; At Current Level Can Consider Going Long the Premium

The Beat Ideas- Krsnaa Diagnostics: B2C & Asset Light Flavor

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Krsnaa Diagnostics (KRSNAA IN) expands into B2C, adds new pathology labs, and secures major government contracts for further growth.
  • Growth in PPP and retail sectors, improved margins, and expanding service offerings solidify market leadership.
  • Krsnaa’s aggressive expansion strategy and diversification indicate strong long-term growth potential with new B2C trajectory and Asset Light Model Expansion.

Portfolio Update: August 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Welcome back to the portfolio updates series! This month, I enjoyed a long vacation with my family, spending three weeks traveling through Italy by car.
  • We began our journey from our home near Munich, which allowed us to traverse the entire country from north to south and back again.
  • We entered Italy through South Tyrol and drove down to Tuscany, where we spent a week. Afterward, we continued our journey all the way down to Puglia, where we stayed for ten days before making the return trip.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Sep-2024): Global smartphones, 2Q ’24

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Global smartphone sales are anticipated to rise in Q2 2024, presenting an opportunity for Taiwanese firms to act quickly.
  • IBM’s Kyndryl spinoff is focusing on addressing India’s cybersecurity talent shortage, signaling the need for immediate action.
  • Apple is prioritizing user privacy in its slow launch strategy, while Huawei revolutionizes mobile innovation with a triple-fold smartphone.

[NIO Inc. (NIO US, SELL, TP US$1) Target Price Change]: Who Is Going to Give in a Slowing EV Market?

By Eric Wen

  • NIO Motors (NIO) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net loss in-line, narrower and narrower vs. our estimate, and in-line, narrower and in-line vs. consensus. 
  • The brightest spot of the result is gross margin due to both vehicle and service gross margin improvements. 
  • We keep rating at SELL and raise TP to US$1 to reflect better OPEX control.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Becoming More Dominant; Apple’s AI Opportunity; Taiwan Market Hammered

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC Extends Global Foundry Dominance Amid 33% Sales Surge – A Buy on Weakness Despite Market Concerns
  • Apple ‘Glowtime’ AI Announcements: Mixed Analyst and Media Reactions May Overlook Key Advantage — Apple Is Best Positioned to Seamlessly Integrate AI Into Your Smartphone Experience
  • Taiwan Market Gainers & Losers: Consumer Electronics & Memory Names Some of the Hardest Hit

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Where Is the End of the Tunnel?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Market consensus is unrealistic as it expects China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) to record 32.1% YoY and 14.6% HoH earnings growth in 2H24. More downgrade risk ahead.
  • Average per-customer duty-free sales in Hainan dropped by 19.2% YoY in Jul, indicating the negative wealth effect and deteriorating middle-class spending appetite.
  • Overseas duty-free sales to Chinese residents surged by almost 50% YoY in Aug, implying a diversion effect which is also detrimental. 

Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation – Capitulation in Oil and Related Equities Almost Complete?

By Rikki Malik

  • Speculative liquidation of crude oil positions opens up an opportunity
  • A seasonally strong period for crude tanker rates coming up
  • Company option scheme for senior management approved. Strike above current price

Cynd (4256) – Tuesday, Jun 11, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • CYND Co., Ltd. is a dominant player in the reservation management software for beauty salons in Japan, with 90% of its revenue coming from recurring contracts
  • The company has high barriers to scale and has acquired its second largest competitor, effectively eliminating competition
  • CYND has the potential to significantly increase its revenue over the next decade, led by its co-founders with strong insider ownership, and is currently valued at JPY 4.1bn with a projected net 10-year IRR of 24.1% for Sun Mountain.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Indosat (ISAT IJ) – Streaming Ahead with AI

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with the growing use of AI tools. 
  • The company also seeks to become an AI Native Telco whilst also pursuing a separate AI business through its tie-up with NVIDIA, and building a data centre edge through BDx.
  • Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ) is also optimistic about its home broadband business projecting 2m subscribers by 2028. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers, especially given ISAT’s growth outlook. 

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: September and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: September, Please Go Away


Crypto Crisp: September, Please Go Away

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Since the release of our Crypto Moves #42 on Friday, the market experienced further declines but has since regained some of its lost ground.
  • Our outlook remains unchanged: at best, the market will move sideways throughout September, and at worst, we may see further declines.
  • However, starting in October, the market will most likely show signs of life similar to those we saw in the early months of this year.

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Daily Brief Macro: [Rubber and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • [Rubber, China, Futures] Typhoon Triggered Defaults Nudged Rubber Spot Prices and SHFE Futures Up
  • Week at a Glance: Markets Have Truly Thrown Inflation in the Bin by Now
  • China Equities: More of the Same
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2024/36] Iron Ore Futures Face Bearish Pressure but Encounters Support
  • CX Daily: Chinese Solar Giants’ Shine Fades Amid Growing Product Glut
  • UK: Unemployment Lower Than Last Year


[Rubber, China, Futures] Typhoon Triggered Defaults Nudged Rubber Spot Prices and SHFE Futures Up

By Farah Miller

  • Physical rubber prices gained strength during the Asian trade day as a typhoon in Vietnam disrupted the supply chain, limiting supply in the market. 
  • In addition, increased inquiries from the Chinese tire makers for the prompt cargoes resulted in further support for the prices. 
  • Chinese state buying up to 100kt of rubber, prices to be announced on 13 Sep 2024. This would provide some short term support on the SHFE 

Week at a Glance: Markets Have Truly Thrown Inflation in the Bin by Now

By Andreas Steno

  • Good afternoon from a rainy Copenhagen.
  • As always, Monday’s morning report will be replaced by our ‘Week at a Glance’ editorial, where we will go through the upcoming events of the week in a short and concise fashion.
  • The mood across assets has surely improved over the weekend after Waller’s statements on Friday, which did not give the markets any clues on whether a 50 or 25bps cut was more likely in September after yet another weak NFP report.

China Equities: More of the Same

By Alex Ng

  • We are strategically underweight China Equities in global and EM equity baskets, due to the structural slowing of growth and low EPS prospects.
  • Event risk around the U.S. presidential election will also start to be considered. 
  • Further targeted policies from China authorities could cause intermittent trading driven short-covering, but aggressive game changing policy would be required to sustain a rally.  

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/36] Iron Ore Futures Face Bearish Pressure but Encounters Support

By Pranay Yadav

  • Iron ore prices declined 9.4% last week, closing below the monthly S1 pivot point, indicating resistance.
  • Despite a brief 0.75% rise on Friday, prices signaled a bearish crossover in the 9D and 21D SMAs, reinforcing negative sentiment.
  • The 91-price level remains strong support, with key resistance levels at 93.9, 95.7, and 98.9. A sharp reversal could push prices to 96.5 or higher.

CX Daily: Chinese Solar Giants’ Shine Fades Amid Growing Product Glut

By Caixin Global

  • Solar / Cover Story: Chinese solar giants’ shine fades amid growing product glut
  • Typhoon /: Super Typhoon Yagi kills four, injures nearly 100 in China
  • China-Indonesia /: Indonesia aims to woo Chinese investment in solar, EV battery production

UK: Unemployment Lower Than Last Year

By Phil Rush

  • Unemployment extended its decline in July to reach 4.14%, 0.2pp less than a year earlier, despite a 0.1pp rise in the long-term rate, amid resurgent employment.
  • Redundancies have fallen towards historic lows while vacancies are relatively stable, suggesting there isn’t labour hoarding to clear before new worker rights arrive.
  • Slowing wage growth can reassure the BoE into cutting again in November, but a lack of labour market slackening could still necessitate a policy reversal in 2025.

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