Smartkarma Daily Briefs

After publishing my insight (Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading “Cheap”) last week, my NAV calcs were called into question by some readers, when compared to street estimates.
Which is cool. I’m big enough to admit mistakes, where needed. So I’ve done some digging, including a back and forth with Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP).
The upshot? I have not lead you astray. You’ve been coming to the right place.

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

By Joe Jasper

The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&P 500, Japan’s TOPIX, and Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 to “roll over near current or marginally higher levels.”
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 07

Daily Brief India: HDFC Bank, Ganesha Ecosphere, Hero Motors Limited and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

HDFC Bank: Looking Beyond Reported Numbers
The Beat Ideas: How Ganesha Ecosphere Is Shaping the Future of Recycling?
Hero Motors Pre-IPO Tearsheet

HDFC Bank: Looking Beyond Reported Numbers

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Post merger, HDFC Bank (“HDFCB”) has been under pressure in regards to sustaining its loan growth, which very much hinges on rapid deposit growth.
While the deposit growth has been weak, it has been an industry-wide issue. Furthermore, at times, the period-end numbers can be misleading.
Focusing on average numbers paints a better picture of growth. Looking at the averages, deposit growth has been strong at 4.6% QoQ, despite liquidity issues in the banking system.

The Beat Ideas: How Ganesha Ecosphere Is Shaping the Future of Recycling?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Ganesha Ecosphere (GNPL IN) is expanding from textiles to FMCG packaging with rPET granules, aiming for a 10-12% market share in the recycled PET market by 2029.
The shift to high-margin rPET products and expansion into FMCG packaging aligns with regulatory trends and growing demand for sustainable materials.
GEL’s strategic focus on high-value, sustainable products and robust market position suggests significant growth potential and improved profitability.

Hero Motors Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

Hero Motors Limited (2313904Z IN) is looking to raise about US$110m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, DAM Cap and JM Fin.
Hero Motors (HML) is an integrated powertrain systems provider offering comprehensive solutions for designing, prototyping, validating, developing, and delivering system-level transmission solutions for electric as well as nonelectric powertrains.
According to CRISIL, it was among the first companies in India to capitalize on the global e-bike powertrain opportunity and have a distinct first mover advantage in this industry.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 07

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom , Talen Energy , BILL Holdings , Marvell Technology , HEICO Corp, Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A, Hewlett Packard Co, Cooper Cos and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?
AMD Acquires ZT Systems for $4.9B, Challenging NVIDIA in the AI Infrastructure Market
Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%
TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185
Bill Holdings Inc.: Expanded Product Portfolio & Other Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts
Marvell Technology Group: Expansion in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Center Solutions & Focus on Custom Silicon Growth! – Major Drivers
HEICO Corporation: Will The Acquisition of Capewell’s Aerial Delivery & Emergency Egress Divisions Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: Expanded Product Categories & Brand Partnerships Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
HP Inc.: A Mixed Financial Picture! – Major Drivers
The Cooper Companies Inc.: Focus on Myopia Management & Market Education & Other Major Drivers

Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?

By William Keating

Intel’s CFO says the company is going to “kind of skip over productizing 20A”
This decision removes an important, looming milestone from Intel’s roadmap, i.e. the ramp of Arrow Lake later this year
The decision to outsource all Arrow Lake tiles, apart from final packaging, strongly suggests that Intel 3 and Intel 18A are not capable of a cost-competitive volume ramp

AMD Acquires ZT Systems for $4.9B, Challenging NVIDIA in the AI Infrastructure Market

The acquisition positions AMD to capitalize on the booming AI infrastructure market, which is expected to grow to $372.9 billion by 2029, leveraging ZT Systems’ hyperscale computing and integration capabilities.
AMD will use ZT Systems’ experience in AI infrastructure deployment for cloud providers like AWS and Azure, helping it compete with NVIDIA’s 70% market share and Intel’s data center push.
Analysts expect the acquisition to be financially accretive by 2025, with ZT Systems enabling AMD to provide comprehensive AI solutions, boosting its presence in the cloud, AI, and enterprise sectors.

Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%

Revenue’s surged 47% YoY, driven by a 200% increase in infrastructure software revenue. Despite strong revenue growth, the company posted a $1.88B net loss due to a $4.5B tax provision
AI revenue is projected to grow by 10% sequentially in Q4, surpassing $3.5B, and is expected to total $12B for fiscal 2024. VMware annualized booking value increased 32% QoQ.
Despite beating Q3 estimates, Broadcom’s Q4 revenue guidance of $14B fell short of the $14.04B expected by analysts. This led to a 7% drop in shares post-earnings.

TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185

By Hamed Khorsand

TLN held an investor day where its management laid out the free cash flow the Company should generate over the next two years and how it was going to happen.
TLN is projecting adjusted EBITDA that makes our estimate look very conservative. TLN is forecasting 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $926 million to $1.175 billion.
The expected free cash flow over the next two years is powering TLN to raise their stock buyback program by $1.1 billion.

Bill Holdings Inc.: Expanded Product Portfolio & Other Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts

BILL’s fiscal Q4 2024 earnings release and conference call signified a noteworthy closure to its fiscal year, presenting both accomplishments and areas for improvement.
The company, with its leadership featuring CEO Rene Lacerte and CFO John Rettig, outlined a series of strategic initiatives and financial outcomes that underline its standing in the financial operations sector, particularly for small to midsized businesses (SMBs).
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Marvell Technology Group: Expansion in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Center Solutions & Focus on Custom Silicon Growth! – Major Drivers

Marvell Technology, Inc.’s Q1 2025 earnings report reflects a strong start to the fiscal year with revenue of $1.16 billion, surpassing the midpoint of guidance.
The overachievement was largely driven by higher-than predicted results from the company’s data center operations, which reported $816 million in revenue for the quarter.
The company anticipates such performance and growth to continue throughout the fiscal year, especially in light of initial shipments of their custom AI compute programs.

HEICO Corporation: Will The Acquisition of Capewell’s Aerial Delivery & Emergency Egress Divisions Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

HEICO Corporation’s third quarter fiscal 2024 results reveal a robust financial performance, with significant increases in consolidated operating income and net sales that set new records for the company.
The earnings call provided a comprehensive analysis of HEICO’s various segments and strategic initiatives, showing a strong trajectory in its core markets, underscored by recent acquisitions and expanded product lines.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: Expanded Product Categories & Brand Partnerships Driving Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. recently unveiled its results for the second quarter of 2024, divulging key financial metrics and strategic initiatives that might influence investor sentiment.
The company exceeded prior projections, setting second-quarter records with a robust 21% growth in net sales, reaching $1.1 billion, alongside an impressive operating margin of 15.5%.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

HP Inc.: A Mixed Financial Picture! – Major Drivers

HP Inc. recently presented its Q3 2024 earnings, showing a mixed financial picture characterized by revenue growth and challenges in profitability.
As the first return to revenue growth in nine quarters, a modest 2%, was noted mostly due to strong performance in Personal Systems, including both consumer and commercial segments.
The company experienced a notable recovery in commercial PCs, adhering to their expectations and suggesting a stabilizing market.

The Cooper Companies Inc.: Focus on Myopia Management & Market Education & Other Major Drivers

Cooper Companies’ latest earnings for the third quarter of 2024 showcased the company reaching significant financial milestones while elaborating on strategic achievements and future outlooks.
The major highlight was CooperCompanies achieving its first-ever billion-dollar revenue quarter, with both divisions reporting record revenues.
Additionally, the company boasted about margin improvements which supported double-digit earnings growth and record non-GAAP quarterly earnings.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 07

Daily Brief China: Midea Group Co Ltd A, PDD Holdings, DiDi Global, Travelsky Technology Ltd H, iQIYI Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Midea Group: Initial Thoughts on the Hong Kong IPO Listing
PDD Holdings Inc.: How Are They Managing Competition and Consumer Demand? – Major Drivers
Didi Invests $94 Million in Smart Cockpit Developer
Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress
iQIYI Inc.: Can The Expansion into Overseas Markets Be A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers

Midea Group: Initial Thoughts on the Hong Kong IPO Listing

By Douglas Kim

Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) is getting ready for a Hong Kong IPO listing, trying to raise at least US$3 billion.
Midea Group is trading a relatively attractive valuations. It is trading at P/E of 11.8x, EV/EBITDA of 8.1x, and P/B of 2.5x based on 2024 consensus earnings estimates.
In the past five days, Midea’s price is down 2.3%. Some investors have been selling shares in Midea due to concerns about higher discount price offered at HK IPO listing.

PDD Holdings Inc.: How Are They Managing Competition and Consumer Demand? – Major Drivers

PDD Holdings, Inc. has shared their financial results for the second quarter of 2024 along with an overview of strategic actions and challenges.
The company saw substantial revenue growth, with total revenue reaching RMB 97 billion, marking an 86% year-on-year increase.
This significant growth stems mainly from robust online marketing and transaction services.

Didi Invests $94 Million in Smart Cockpit Developer

By Caixin Global

Didi Global Inc. is investing 670 million yuan ($94 million) in an affiliated firm of digital mapping company NavInfo Co. Ltd. (002405.SZ -3.09%) and has moved its team responsible for smart cockpit development to the venture, as the Chinese ride-hailing giant takes another step away from carmaking to streamline its business.
Beijing-based Didi’s smart transportation arm will take a 16.46% stake in AutoAI (Nanjing) Technologies Co. Ltd., becoming its second-largest shareholder, NavInfo said in a Shenzhen Stock Exchange filing dated Wednesday.
NavInfo, AutoAI’s largest shareholder, will also invest an additional 100 million yuan in AutoAI, diluting its stake from 30.29% to 27.01%, the filing said.

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

By Mohshin Aziz

1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue.
Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid’s numbers.
Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean).

iQIYI Inc.: Can The Expansion into Overseas Markets Be A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

iQIYI recently divulged its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2024, revealing several intriguing aspects about its current business trajectory.
This analysis aims to distill the substantial information provided during the earnings call and form an even-handed view on iQIYI’s performance and future prospects.
iQIYI remains a significant player in the long-form video sector in China, holding a competitive edge in the drama and film categories.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 07

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

While Raising Profit Margin Isn’t Easy, the Focus Is on Reducing Policy-Shares and Cash on Hand

While Raising Profit Margin Isn’t Easy, the Focus Is on Reducing Policy-Shares and Cash on Hand

By Aki Matsumoto

While cash on hand is high, many companies have not been able to improve their return on capital, so more companies are expected to announce shareholder returns, including share repurchases.
The change in awareness of companies can be attributed largely to the changing environment of high foreign ownership and TSE requests.
Since it takes time to raise the profit margin, and it’s not easy to identify CapEx opportunities, the measures to improve ROE will reduce policy shareholdings and cash on hand.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 07

Most Read: Kuaishou Technology, Fast Retailing, Nextdc Ltd, Workday Inc Class A, Midea Group Co Ltd A, New World Development, Kangwon Land, Jardine Matheson Holdings, The Born Korea, SK Biopharmaceuticals and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2024)
Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor
Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows
Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible
Midea: Thoughts on HK Listing and Valuation
We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)
KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains
Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV
The Born Korea IPO Preview
Key Flow Trading Opportunities After KRX Suddenly Added POSCO Holdings to the BBIG Battery Mix

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2024)

By Brian Freitas

The September rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.
The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$18.1bn (US$2.3bn).
Kuaishou, ASM Pacific Technology, JD.com, J&T Global, Sunny Optical and New Oriental Education are the largest buys while Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi and HSBC Holdings are the biggest sells.

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

By Travis Lundy

The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results: A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT.
That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again.
And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.

Australia/NZ Real Estate: Stocks With (Large) Passive Flows

By Brian Freitas

There will be passive buying in Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU) and Charter Hall (CHC AU) and selling in Vital Healthcare Property Trust (VHP NZ) at the close on 20 September.
Charter Hall (CHC AU)‘s stock price jumped following announcement of results and that was accompanied by big short covering. There should still be more positioning here.
Nextdc Ltd (NXT AU)‘s increase in cumulative excess volume came on a drop in the stock price. There could be some covering here as positioning builds up.

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The rankings used for the September 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (4th September 2024) opening prices.
In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.

Midea: Thoughts on HK Listing and Valuation

Chinese appliance maker Midea’s application to list its shares on the HKEx has been approved and the company plans to list up to 10% of its shares to raise $4bn.
Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) has a diversified product portfolio, well-balanced exposure to domestic as well as overseas markets and M&A’s that have helped significantly grow its business.
Our analysis on previous secondary listings of Chinese-listed companies on HKEx shows that the HK listings were priced at a significant discount to their A-Shares.

We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)

0.08x P/B. That’s where New World Development (17 HK) is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.
So, what’s going on? Announcing an expected HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 last week didn’t help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.
Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers.

KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains

By Sanghyun Park

For this September reshuffle, fewer factors affected price impact, so outlier chances were low. Biggest price moves typically occur 30 days before the effective date, especially during LARGE↔MID transitions.
Early positioning for this reshuffle paid off. Past trends suggest price action fades before the effective date, so consider exiting positions by tomorrow or early next week.
Small→Mid migrants historically show weak price impacts, with no clear correlation observed in this September reshuffle either. I’m avoiding those plays targeting the effective date for now.

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV

After publishing my insight (Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading “Cheap”) last week, my NAV calcs were called into question by some readers, when compared to street estimates.
Which is cool. I’m big enough to admit mistakes, where needed. So I’ve done some digging, including a back and forth with Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP).
The upshot? I have not lead you astray. You’ve been coming to the right place.

The Born Korea IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

The Born Korea is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in November. The total IPO offering is expected to range from 69 billion won to 84 billion won.
Based on the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap of the company ranges from 357 billion won to 419 billion won.
The Born Korea was founded by Baek Jong-Won, the most famous celebrity chef in Korea.

Key Flow Trading Opportunities After KRX Suddenly Added POSCO Holdings to the BBIG Battery Mix

By Sanghyun Park

Got surprised by KRX adding POSCO Holdings to the Battery Index. Normally predictable rebalancing went off-script with this unexpected move.
POSCO Holdings, not Posco Future M, replaced Ecopro BM. Plus, Alteogen Inc is replacing SK Biopharmaceuticals in the BBIG, driving notable flow.
Consider a day trading long POSCO Holdings and short Ecopro BM. Also, a long-short futures basket could be worth exploring for names with big passive flows.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Analytics and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 07

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intel Corp, Advanced Micro Devices, Singtel, Travelsky Technology Ltd H, Broadcom , Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, Acer Inc, BILL Holdings , Marvell Technology , iQIYI Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?
AMD Acquires ZT Systems for $4.9B, Challenging NVIDIA in the AI Infrastructure Market
Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside
Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress
Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%
Vanguard (5347.TT): The Outlook of 4Q24 Seems a Bit Softer.
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Sep-2024): Global semiconductor sales up in July; Americas surge 40%
Bill Holdings Inc.: Expanded Product Portfolio & Other Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts
Marvell Technology Group: Expansion in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Center Solutions & Focus on Custom Silicon Growth! – Major Drivers
iQIYI Inc.: Can The Expansion into Overseas Markets Be A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers

Intel Cancels 20A. Now Why Would They Go & Do That?

By William Keating

Intel’s CFO says the company is going to “kind of skip over productizing 20A”
This decision removes an important, looming milestone from Intel’s roadmap, i.e. the ramp of Arrow Lake later this year
The decision to outsource all Arrow Lake tiles, apart from final packaging, strongly suggests that Intel 3 and Intel 18A are not capable of a cost-competitive volume ramp

AMD Acquires ZT Systems for $4.9B, Challenging NVIDIA in the AI Infrastructure Market

The acquisition positions AMD to capitalize on the booming AI infrastructure market, which is expected to grow to $372.9 billion by 2029, leveraging ZT Systems’ hyperscale computing and integration capabilities.
AMD will use ZT Systems’ experience in AI infrastructure deployment for cloud providers like AWS and Azure, helping it compete with NVIDIA’s 70% market share and Intel’s data center push.
Analysts expect the acquisition to be financially accretive by 2025, with ZT Systems enabling AMD to provide comprehensive AI solutions, boosting its presence in the cloud, AI, and enterprise sectors.

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

By Joe Jasper

The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&P 500, Japan’s TOPIX, and Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 to “roll over near current or marginally higher levels.”
Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD11.0): Making Good Progress

By Mohshin Aziz

1H24 results was above expectation and showing good signs of cost control and topline recovery. We expect the momentum to continue.
Air traffic in China continues to grow strongly, with domestic travel leading the way. International traffic is picking up momentum, but still 23% gap to pre-Covid’s numbers.
Revised fair value of HKD11.10 (+18% UPSIDE) is based on 2025 PE 12.5x (1SD below mean).

Broadcom Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates but Guidance Worries Investors, Shares Drop 7%

Revenue’s surged 47% YoY, driven by a 200% increase in infrastructure software revenue. Despite strong revenue growth, the company posted a $1.88B net loss due to a $4.5B tax provision
AI revenue is projected to grow by 10% sequentially in Q4, surpassing $3.5B, and is expected to total $12B for fiscal 2024. VMware annualized booking value increased 32% QoQ.
Despite beating Q3 estimates, Broadcom’s Q4 revenue guidance of $14B fell short of the $14.04B expected by analysts. This led to a 7% drop in shares post-earnings.

Vanguard (5347.TT): The Outlook of 4Q24 Seems a Bit Softer.

By Patrick Liao

The 4Q24 is slightly on the downside, and we are currently adopting a somewhat conservative approach.
Visibility extends for no more than 3 months, and any increase in demand is primarily driven by urgent orders.
As for the upcoming 12″ Fab, which is in collaboration with Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US), it has commenced local recruitment efforts in Singapore.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Sep-2024): Global semiconductor sales up in July; Americas surge 40%

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Global semiconductor sales saw a 40% rise in Americas in July, with Acer hitting record highs in India and Indonesia.
Foxconn is reviewing a European semiconductor plant and investing in technology, as SEMI CEO calls for 10-20 wafer fabs in India.
Semiconductor giants reveal sustainability plans at Semicon Taiwan 2024, while ASE forms SiPhIA consortium for advancements in silicon photonics. UK auto industry embraces net-zero amid EV revolution, and China’s leading AI chip unicorn faces revenue decline despite sector growth.

Bill Holdings Inc.: Expanded Product Portfolio & Other Factors Driving Our Optimism! – Financial Forecasts

BILL’s fiscal Q4 2024 earnings release and conference call signified a noteworthy closure to its fiscal year, presenting both accomplishments and areas for improvement.
The company, with its leadership featuring CEO Rene Lacerte and CFO John Rettig, outlined a series of strategic initiatives and financial outcomes that underline its standing in the financial operations sector, particularly for small to midsized businesses (SMBs).
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Marvell Technology Group: Expansion in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Data Center Solutions & Focus on Custom Silicon Growth! – Major Drivers

Marvell Technology, Inc.’s Q1 2025 earnings report reflects a strong start to the fiscal year with revenue of $1.16 billion, surpassing the midpoint of guidance.
The overachievement was largely driven by higher-than predicted results from the company’s data center operations, which reported $816 million in revenue for the quarter.
The company anticipates such performance and growth to continue throughout the fiscal year, especially in light of initial shipments of their custom AI compute programs.

iQIYI Inc.: Can The Expansion into Overseas Markets Be A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers

iQIYI recently divulged its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2024, revealing several intriguing aspects about its current business trajectory.
This analysis aims to distill the substantial information provided during the earnings call and form an even-handed view on iQIYI’s performance and future prospects.
iQIYI remains a significant player in the long-form video sector in China, holding a competitive edge in the drama and film categories.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 07

Daily Brief Utilities: Talen Energy and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185

TLN: Powered for Free Cash Flow, PT to $185

By Hamed Khorsand

TLN held an investor day where its management laid out the free cash flow the Company should generate over the next two years and how it was going to happen.
TLN is projecting adjusted EBITDA that makes our estimate look very conservative. TLN is forecasting 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $926 million to $1.175 billion.
The expected free cash flow over the next two years is powering TLN to raise their stock buyback program by $1.1 billion.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 07

Daily Brief Industrials: Jardine Matheson Holdings, Hero Motors Limited, HEICO Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV
Hero Motors Pre-IPO Tearsheet
HEICO Corporation: Will The Acquisition of Capewell’s Aerial Delivery & Emergency Egress Divisions Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers

Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Squeezing More Life Out Of The NAV

After publishing my insight (Jardine Matheson (JM SP): Trading “Cheap”) last week, my NAV calcs were called into question by some readers, when compared to street estimates.
Which is cool. I’m big enough to admit mistakes, where needed. So I’ve done some digging, including a back and forth with Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP).
The upshot? I have not lead you astray. You’ve been coming to the right place.

Hero Motors Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

Hero Motors Limited (2313904Z IN) is looking to raise about US$110m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, DAM Cap and JM Fin.
Hero Motors (HML) is an integrated powertrain systems provider offering comprehensive solutions for designing, prototyping, validating, developing, and delivering system-level transmission solutions for electric as well as nonelectric powertrains.
According to CRISIL, it was among the first companies in India to capitalize on the global e-bike powertrain opportunity and have a distinct first mover advantage in this industry.

HEICO Corporation: Will The Acquisition of Capewell’s Aerial Delivery & Emergency Egress Divisions Be A Game Changer? – Major Drivers