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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: Corporate Value Up in Korea – Focus On Reducing Outstanding Shares and Comparison to M7 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Corporate Value Up in Korea – Focus On Reducing Outstanding Shares and Comparison to M7
  • Tactical Trading – Time to Sell Japan Again
  • China’s Volatile Consumption Sector
  • Best Of: How Dubai is reshaping the global oil trade
  • Labor Productivity and Growth in China
  • Politics: The Far-Centre Will Fail
  • [ETP 2024/36] Oil Slumps as Supply Fears Fade; Nat-Gas Soars on Rising Demand Outlook
  • Positioning Watch – Markets are begging for a rebound in growth
  • What does the road to peace in Ukraine look like?
  • Chile Policy Interest Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in Sep-24


Corporate Value Up in Korea – Focus On Reducing Outstanding Shares and Comparison to M7

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we compare the outstanding shares changes in the Korean stock market (KOSPI and KOSDAQ) relative to M7 (Magnificent 7) companies. 
  • In Korea, there are more companies such as Samsung C&T, KB Financial, and KT&G that are actively reducing their outstanding shares and investors are rewarding them with higher share prices.
  • Top 10 companies in KOSPI that reduced their outstanding shares (from end of 2019 to 5 Sept 24) experienced average share price increase of 116% on average in this period.

Tactical Trading – Time to Sell Japan Again

By Rikki Malik

  • Act II  of the drama begins  and continues from where it left off in early August
  • Sentiment has changed – bad news really  is  bad news
  • With >100 basis points of cuts already priced in before year end…

China’s Volatile Consumption Sector

By Alex Ng

  • China consumption patterns are divergent; slowing and becoming more volatile at a sub sector level.
  • Less certainty over new employment and wage growth, plus wealth worries over housing are some of the causes.  
  • We forecast GDP to slow in H2 and be 4.0% in 2025.

Best Of: How Dubai is reshaping the global oil trade

By Behind the Money

  • Correspondent Tom Wilson visited Fujairah, a booming port city in the UAE where oil trading has exploded in recent years
  • Western sanctions on Russian oil exports have led to a redirection of global energy flows, with the UAE emerging as a major energy trading hub
  • Switzerland has historically been a top location for commodity traders due to its banking secrecy and political neutrality, but the rise of UAE as an oil trading hub is shifting the balance of power in oil markets

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Labor Productivity and Growth in China

By Alex Ng

  • Most recent update of our Country Insights model ranks China as the seventh strongest performer in our labor productivity growth sub-factor. However, the country’s score is downward after the GFC.
  • The labor productivity growth sub-factor measures the extent to which labor contributes to GDP. It uses the average growth of GDP per person employed over the past five years.
  • This sub-factor is then used to calculate our Country Strength Index, which is the overall country strength score reflecting the country’s macroeconomic, growth potential, political and social strength.

Politics: The Far-Centre Will Fail

By Phil Rush

  • Dismissing popular concerns alienates potential voters for some traditional and current parties of government. The resultant democratic deficit positions them as far-centre.
  • Popular alternative views need careful respect, either triangulating their essence into the policy platform or an honest pitch for why an alternative path is superior.
  • Parties that adapt can thrive. Those who keep dismissing ideas outside their perceived Overton window will suffer. Political fortunes can be evaluated through this lens.

[ETP 2024/36] Oil Slumps as Supply Fears Fade; Nat-Gas Soars on Rising Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 30/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 6.9m barrels, surpassing analysts expectations a 600k barrel drawdown. Distillate stocks surprisingly dropped, while gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose.
  • US natural gas inventories rise 13 bcf for the week ending 30/Aug, missing analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 10.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • ADNOC to acquire a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s proposed low-carbon hydrogen facility. BPN Paribas raised the target price on Chevron, while Grupo Santander downgraded TotalEnergies.

Positioning Watch – Markets are begging for a rebound in growth

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, now moved to Wednesdays.
  • Global macro has truly been a rollercoaster these past few weeks, and market narratives have constantly changed, making it somewhat difficult to navigate.
  • Everyone has been juggling around between the growth party and recession stories, and markets have increasingly been leading into cyclical trades after the July NFP dust settled, believing that the signs we saw from the labor market was a one off.

What does the road to peace in Ukraine look like?

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Over the past weeks, we are beginning to hear more and more talk of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy heading to the US to present a “plan to end the war” like a salesman trying to renew a customer deal for one final term.
  • Does this mean that we are looking into an upcoming peace settlement or is Zelenskyy simply grasping after straws?
  • In this piece, we’ll try to give you the strategic overview and our forecast of a possible path forward and out of the war, which would have enormous effects on global markets.

Chile Policy Interest Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in Sep-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Central Bank of Chile cut the MPR by 25 basis points to 5.5% in response to slowing economic activity and inflation dynamics, aligning with market expectations again after surprisingly holding the rate steady in July.
  • Chile’s financial market mirrored global trends, with falling short- and long-term interest rates and a modest appreciation of the peso. However, credit growth remains weak, especially in the commercial sector.
  • Future MPR cuts will likely proceed faster than previously projected, contingent on macroeconomic conditions and inflationary pressures, with the Bank committed to ensuring inflation remains on track to reach 3% over the two-year horizon.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Daily Brief Australia: Neuren Pharmaceuticals, Ionic Rare Earths and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU): Ready to Fly Again After a Breather
  • IXR Update Note IonicTech Magnet Recycling 05092024


Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU): Ready to Fly Again After a Breather

By Tina Banerjee

  • Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU) shares corrected ~14% over the last one month, as Daybue reported disappointing performance in U.S. and partner reduced 2024 revenue guidance for Daybue.
  • Muted U.S. performance of Daybue in 1H24 seems to be short-lived and the drug is expected to accelerate in 2H24 and beyond.
  • In 2Q24, the rate of new patient starts was 12% higher than the previous quarter and the rate of discontinuations was 46% lower than in the previous quarter. 

IXR Update Note IonicTech Magnet Recycling 05092024

By ACF Equity Research

  • Ionic Rare Earths Ltd (ASX:IXR) is a magnet (REOs) recycling (Belfast, UK) and REE mining explorer (Uganda) plus a Brazilian REE Refining JV, excluded from our NPV, with Viridis Mining and Metals Limited (VMM).
  • ACF visited IonicTech’s magnet recycling demo plant in July 2024.
  • Since our last IXR Flash Note, we raise our valuation by 16% to A$ 0.109 vs A$ 0.094 previously and put Makuutu in a maintenance period.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Kangwon Land, The Born Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains
  • The Born Korea IPO Preview


KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains

By Sanghyun Park

  • For this September reshuffle, fewer factors affected price impact, so outlier chances were low. Biggest price moves typically occur 30 days before the effective date, especially during LARGE↔MID transitions.
  • Early positioning for this reshuffle paid off. Past trends suggest price action fades before the effective date, so consider exiting positions by tomorrow or early next week.
  • Small→Mid migrants historically show weak price impacts, with no clear correlation observed in this September reshuffle either. I’m avoiding those plays targeting the effective date for now.

The Born Korea IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • The Born Korea is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in November. The total IPO offering is expected to range from 69 billion won to 84 billion won. 
  • Based on the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap of the company ranges from 357 billion won to 419 billion won. 
  • The Born Korea was founded by Baek Jong-Won, the most famous celebrity chef in Korea. 

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Daily Brief United States: Workday Inc Class A, Robinhood Markets , NVIDIA Corp, Carrier Global , Snowflake , Crude Oil, Intuit Inc, Urban Outfitters, Lands’ End Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible
  • S&P MidCap 400 September 2024 Forecasts: Highest Score to the HOOD, CVNA, LPLA, ENTG, ENSG and MLI
  • Episode 83: The Earnings Heard Round the World (NVDA)
  • Shares of Cooling Firms Have Turned Red Hot on Record Setting Scorching Heat
  • Workday Inc.: An Enhanced Global Workforce Strategy
  • Can Snowflake Truly Capitalize On The AI-Linked Opportunities That Lie Ahead? – Major Drivers
  • [ETP 2024/36] Oil Slumps as Supply Fears Fade; Nat-Gas Soars on Rising Demand Outlook
  • Intuit Inc.: Its Mid-Market Expansion & AI Investments Drive Our Optimism! – Major Drivers
  • Urban Outfitters Inc.: These Are The 4 Pivotal Factors Affecting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts
  • LE: 2Q Review: Upside Now…and Set Up for Later; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The rankings used for the September 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (4th September 2024) opening prices.
  • In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.

S&P MidCap 400 September 2024 Forecasts: Highest Score to the HOOD, CVNA, LPLA, ENTG, ENSG and MLI

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • S&P MidCap 400 additions by transition require market cap, float cap, sector balance, liquidity and earnings as parameters for inclusion.
  • The highest combined score from the parameters is given to CVNA, HOOD, LPLA and ENTG which makes them acceptable candidates for addition. 
  • Ensign Group (ENSG US) and Mueller Industries (MLI US) have the highest probability of being added out of the migrations. Market cap of migration candidates is estimated to be insufficient.

Episode 83: The Earnings Heard Round the World (NVDA)

By The Circuit

  • Mispronunciations of Nvidia can be a red flag for some investors
  • The volatility in Nvidia stock after earnings was not surprising due to high trading volume and options activity
  • Buy side expectations and unofficial whisper numbers can impact stock performance in high profile companies like Nvidia

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Shares of Cooling Firms Have Turned Red Hot on Record Setting Scorching Heat

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • July 2024 ranked as the warmest July in NOAA’s 175-year global record. Land & sea surface temperatures were above average across the planet barring few exceptions.
  • July had the 2nd smallest sea ice coverage in 46-years at 8.49 million square miles. There is a 77% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record.
  • Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (“HVAC”) stocks continue to rise on strong demand as temperatures peak across the planet.

Workday Inc.: An Enhanced Global Workforce Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • Workday, a leading provider of enterprise cloud applications for finance and human resources, delivered a mixed set of results in its fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings.
  • The company reported a 17% growth in subscription revenue and a healthy increase in its 12-month backlog, which grew 16%.
  • Professional services also saw growth, contributing to a total revenue growth of the same percentage.

Can Snowflake Truly Capitalize On The AI-Linked Opportunities That Lie Ahead? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Snowflake Inc. reported a solid financial performance for the fiscal second quarter of 2024, with product revenue increasing by 30% year-over-year to $829 million, surpassing analyst expectations.
  • The company raised its full-year revenue outlook to $3.36 billion, reflecting its continued focus on innovation and product development.
  • Despite this growth, Snowflake’s stock faced pressure, dropping by 7% in extended trading as concerns over its ability to fully capitalize on AI-related opportunities persisted.

[ETP 2024/36] Oil Slumps as Supply Fears Fade; Nat-Gas Soars on Rising Demand Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 30/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 6.9m barrels, surpassing analysts expectations a 600k barrel drawdown. Distillate stocks surprisingly dropped, while gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose.
  • US natural gas inventories rise 13 bcf for the week ending 30/Aug, missing analyst expectations of a 26 bcf buildup. Inventories are 10.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • ADNOC to acquire a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s proposed low-carbon hydrogen facility. BPN Paribas raised the target price on Chevron, while Grupo Santander downgraded TotalEnergies.

Intuit Inc.: Its Mid-Market Expansion & AI Investments Drive Our Optimism! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intuit Inc. delivered strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2024, highlighting the success of its strategic initiatives, particularly its AI-driven expert platform.
  • This strategy is at the core of Intuit’s operations and future growth, focusing on providing AI-enhanced solutions that make financial management more streamlined and efficient for both consumers and businesses.
  • Intuit reported a 13% revenue growth for fiscal year 2024, with the fourth quarter alone seeing a 17% increase.

Urban Outfitters Inc.: These Are The 4 Pivotal Factors Affecting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • In the second quarter, Urban Outfitters reported a 6% increase in total sales, reaching $1.4 billion, propelled by strong performance in its retail and wholesale segments.
  • Specifically, the Anthropologie and Free People brands exhibited high single-digit retail segment comps, which nicely offset the decline at Urban Outfitters.
  • Additionally, the Nuuly segment achieved significant growth with a 55% rise in average active subscribers compared to the previous year.

LE: 2Q Review: Upside Now…and Set Up for Later; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Lands’ End and raising our FY24 and FY25 projections after the company registered another strong upside quarter in 2Q FY24 (July) and provided further compelling evidence the focus on innovation and newness to drive higher overall top and bottom line returns is fully on track and setting up for strong near and longer term upside.
  • We believe there remain multiple key catalysts at Lands’ End, from: 1) shifts in customer base to a younger, more fashion driven buyer; 2) European top line and margin expansion 3) new online marketplaces, with Nordstrom just coming online; 4) material expansion of the licensing effort, with a new domestic license for wholesale apparel, outerwear and swimwear; and 5) market share gains in the B2B business.
  • When combined with a disciplined management team focused on efficiencies and operations, we view the best as still ahead for LE and reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Erajaya Swasembada, Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Affordability Rocks
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, Medco Energi


Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Affordability Rocks

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) booked a solid set of 1H2024 results driven by the availability of affordable handsets, with volumes driving growth despite lower prices. 
  • The company’s Erablue consumer electronics JV with Mobile World Investment (MWG VN) now has 61 outlets and is set to break even in 2024, with 80 stores expected by year-end. 
  • The other growth drivers will come from private-label accessories and its Grand Lucky supermarket expansion. Valuations look attractive will the company trading on a 6x forward PER multiple.

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, Medco Energi

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Sona Blw Precision QIP – Well Flagged Raising, past Deal Record Has Been Decent
  • Narrative and Numbers | Consumer & MSME Finance | FY24
  • Vedanta Resources – Event Flash – 5NC2/7NC3 Notes Offering – Lucror Analytics


Sona Blw Precision QIP – Well Flagged Raising, past Deal Record Has Been Decent

By Clarence Chu

  • Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt (SONACOMS IN) is looking to raise INR24bn (US$286m) from its qualified institutional placement (QIP).
  • The capital raising is well flagged having gone through rounds of board approvals, and having been well covered by various media outlets as well.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Narrative and Numbers | Consumer & MSME Finance | FY24

By Pranav Bhavsar


Vedanta Resources – Event Flash – 5NC2/7NC3 Notes Offering – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Vedanta Resources (VRL) has launched a roadshow to market its USD 144A/RegS benchmark-sized notes (likely to be 5NC2 or mainly 5NC2, and/or 7NC3), with a potential total size of USD 1.5 bn. The proceeds will be used to refinance the USD 13.875% 2027 notes (USD 470 mn outstanding) and USD 13.875% 2028 notes (USD 1,008 mn outstanding). VRL has sent a conditional redemption notice to trustees of the 2027 notes and 2028 notes, assuming the proposed notes issuance is successful.​ VRL has concurrently launched a tender offer for the 2027 and 2028 notes. 

We expect the proposed 5NC2 notes to price at c. 10%, and the 7NC3 notes at c. 11%.


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Daily Brief Japan: Fuji Soft Inc, Pasco Corp, Toyota Motor, D.Western Therapeutics Institute Inc., Cyberdyne Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Launches Early to Stymy Bain Who Has a Founding Family Tailwind
  • Pasco (9232 JP): Secom (9735 JP) And Itochu (8001 JP) Tender Offer a Done Deal
  • Toyota Motor (7203 JP): Scripting an India Success Story with Suzuki Tie Up
  • D. Western Therapeutics Institute (4576 JP) – News Flash – Sep 5, 2024
  • CYBERDYNE (7779 JP) – Overseas Initiatives Driving Sales and Reducing Losses


Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Launches Early to Stymy Bain Who Has a Founding Family Tailwind

By Travis Lundy

  • KKR has launched its deal early to make life difficult for Bain, who has Founding Family support, due diligence, and another hearing with the company to make a Binding Bid.
  • The combination of Bain’s PR on 3 September and the new documents out late last night from KKR and Fuji Soft show a picture of KKR/3D somehow acting coercively.
  • This is something of a mess. It should become a case study for lawyers/advisors of what NOT to do when a large PE firm approaches you. Expect a bun fight.

Pasco (9232 JP): Secom (9735 JP) And Itochu (8001 JP) Tender Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Pasco Corp (9232 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP) and Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY2,140, 31.4% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,629.
  • The tender offer runs from 6 September to 22 October (30 business days), with payment commencing on 28 October. It represents a 10-year high. 
  • This a done deal as the offeror represents a 71.66% ownership ratio, higher than the two-thirds of voting rights required to implement a squeeze-out through share consolidation.  

Toyota Motor (7203 JP): Scripting an India Success Story with Suzuki Tie Up

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Toyota Kirloskar, Toyota Motor‘s 89%-owned India JV, recorded a 65% rise in revenues and 240% jump in profits to around USD575 million in FY2024 following 48% increase in units sold.
  • The company has continued to maintain its strong growth momentum in FY2025 YTD, with wholesale volumes up 36% YoY.
  • Successful launch of rebadged Suzuki models, ramped-up production and customer-friendly initiatives have supported Toyota’s accelerated volume growth in India.

D. Western Therapeutics Institute (4576 JP) – News Flash – Sep 5, 2024

By Sessa Investment Research

  • DWTI announced that the first transplant was performed in a domestic Phase II clinical study of DWR-2206 (Indication: bullous keratopathy, see Note 1 below), a regenerative medicine cell product being developed jointly by DWTI and ActualEyes Inc., and as a result of the follow-up monitoring, the safety of DWR-2206 has been confirmed in order to proceed to a second and subsequent transplants.
  • This study is being conducted to evaluate the safety and efficacy of DWR-2206 transplants in patients with bullous keratopathy.
  • The first transplant took place in July 2024, and the patient’s progress since the transplant has been smooth. 

CYBERDYNE (7779 JP) – Overseas Initiatives Driving Sales and Reducing Losses

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1 FY3/25 results reported 10.5% sales growth YoY and declining operating losses, driven by a combination of treatment service growth in the Americas and cost reduction efforts.
  • Operating units of the key HAL Medical Lower Limb Type grew 8.3% YoY to 481 units worldwide, indicating moderate but sustained growth YoY at home and overseas.
  • Overseas sales made up 71% of the total, demonstrating the company’s focus on geographic expansion. 

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Daily Brief China: New World Development, Xingda International, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Baidu, Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems Group BV, NetEase , Medco Energi, Shui On Land and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)
  • Xingda Int’l (1899 HK): Another Partial?
  • Xingda (1899 HK): Management to Reload with a Partial Offer?
  • Midea: Thoughts on HK Listing and Valuation
  • Baidu’s Launch of Advanced AI Model Ernie 4.0 Turbo
  • Morning Views Asia: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd, West China Cement, Yuexiu Property
  • NetEase Inc.: An Expanding Game Portfolio with Worldwide Reach! – Major Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, Medco Energi
  • Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics


We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • 0.08x P/B. That’s where New World Development (17 HK) is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.
  • So, what’s going on? Announcing an expected HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 last week didn’t help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.
  • Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers. 

Xingda Int’l (1899 HK): Another Partial?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 7 Dec 2023, Xingda International (1899 HK)  announced a partial Offer from a consortium comprising management at HK$1.88/share.
  • The consortium, at the time, held 45%, with the objective to hold >50.01% at the close of the Offer. The final % was 50.42%
  • The consortium was then free to take their stake up to 75%. However the shareholder structure has materially changed in 2024. Xingda is suspended (again) pursuant to the Takeovers Code.

Xingda (1899 HK): Management to Reload with a Partial Offer?

By Arun George

  • Xingda International (1899 HK) entered a trading halt pending the release of an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
  • Significant changes in substantial shareholders have occurred since the previous partial offer closed on 10 March 2023, which could be the catalyst for an offer. 
  • Management is likely reloading a partial offer to exercise statutory control and bypass the 2% creeper rule. The partial offer price could be around HK$1.60-1.70 per share. 

Midea: Thoughts on HK Listing and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Chinese appliance maker Midea’s application to list its shares on the HKEx has been approved and the company plans to list up to 10% of its shares to raise $4bn.
  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)  has a diversified product portfolio,  well-balanced exposure to domestic as well as overseas markets and M&A’s that have helped significantly grow its business.
  • Our analysis on previous secondary listings of Chinese-listed companies on HKEx shows that the HK listings were priced at a significant discount to their A-Shares.

Baidu’s Launch of Advanced AI Model Ernie 4.0 Turbo

By Baptista Research

  • Baidu has reported its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2024, showcasing resilience with its Baidu Core which posted a modest revenue growth to RMB 26.7 billion.
  • This growth was driven by the accelerating performance in the AI Cloud sector, which somewhat counterbalanced the drag provided by the online marketing segment.
  • Notably, there was an 8% year-over-year increase in non-GAAP operating profit for Baidu Core, reflecting continued operational efficiencies.

Morning Views Asia: Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd, West China Cement, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


NetEase Inc.: An Expanding Game Portfolio with Worldwide Reach! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • NetEase’s 2024 second quarter earnings report revealed considerable strategic progress, although accompanied by some operational challenges typical for a growing enterprise.
  • The company reported a total revenue of RMB 25.5 billion, indicating a 6% year-over-year increase, driven largely by the success in its gaming division and expanded efforts in international markets.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, Medco Energi

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2024 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Shui On Land’s (SOL) H1/24 results were weak, as the company reported reduced earnings, higher net debt and weaker leverage. Positively, rental income continued to grow. As a result, recurring operating income from rentals and property management covered 0.9x of interest expense for LTM June (FY 2023: 0.8x). In addition, asset values were stable, with consolidated investment properties covering 1.7x of net debt. We expect cash flows to improve in H2/24, supported by the planned delivery of two projects.  

That said, liquidity is poor. We view negatively management’s cautious tone during the earnings call. Going forward, we believe that SOL could seek to monetise its 100% stake in its property investment and management arm, Shui On Xin Tian Di. In addition, the company may raise fresh funding by further increasing the LTV on its investment property portfolio to the maximum of 45%, albeit this is uncertain (depending on its arrangements with banks). SOL may also carry out more asset sales.

Meanwhile, we believe that the company may be considering potential liability management exercises for the USD bonds in the event it fails to obtain sufficient financing for repayment.


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Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Fuji Soft Inc, Kuaishou Technology, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Fast Retailing, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Workday Inc Class A, New World Development, Kangwon Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Artisan Partners Writes a Letter To the 7&I Board (3382) – Meh…
  • Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Launches Early to Stymy Bain Who Has a Founding Family Tailwind
  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2024)
  • Midea Group H Share Listing: AH Discount Views
  • Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor
  • China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update- Pre-Conditions Won’t Be “An Obstacle” to the Entire Process
  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible
  • Ohayo Japan | Bracing for Jobs Data
  • We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)
  • KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains


Artisan Partners Writes a Letter To the 7&I Board (3382) – Meh…

By Travis Lundy

  • On 30 August, 7&i shareholder Artisan Partners (holder since 2019, now at 1%) wrote an open letter to the Board of Directors of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) 
  • There are several comments in bold. “It is imperative that the board of directors negotiate with ACT immediately to achieve the best possible outcome for shareholders” is one.
  • The letter is a bit preachy, a bit fluffy, and a bit misleading in parts. But it requests the Company brief shareholders on the negotiations by 19 September 2024. 

Fuji Soft (9749) – KKR Launches Early to Stymy Bain Who Has a Founding Family Tailwind

By Travis Lundy

  • KKR has launched its deal early to make life difficult for Bain, who has Founding Family support, due diligence, and another hearing with the company to make a Binding Bid.
  • The combination of Bain’s PR on 3 September and the new documents out late last night from KKR and Fuji Soft show a picture of KKR/3D somehow acting coercively.
  • This is something of a mess. It should become a case study for lawyers/advisors of what NOT to do when a large PE firm approaches you. Expect a bun fight.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Sep 2024)

By Brian Freitas


Midea Group H Share Listing: AH Discount Views

By Arun George


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

By Travis Lundy

  • The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT
  • That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. 
  • And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update- Pre-Conditions Won’t Be “An Obstacle” to the Entire Process

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We have seen positive progress of the privatization of China TCM, which is still considered an important project on the agenda. CNPGC’s new leadership is very supportive of the deal.
  • The SAMR process has begun. There should be no problem to meet the Pre-Conditions. If the approval process takes more time, Long Stop Date would be extended.
  • Considering China Resources has decided to acquire Tasly, we think the integration of TCM business by CNPGC is expected to accelerate. We remain optimistic and this deal will get up. 

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Sep 24 Rebal (Final): 2 Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The rankings used for the September 2024 index rebal event will be based on yesterday’s (4th September 2024) opening prices.
  • In this insight, we take a final look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the rankings for the upcoming review.

Ohayo Japan | Bracing for Jobs Data

By Mark Chadwick

  • Wall Street is bracing for Friday’s crucial jobs report, expected to influence Federal Reserve policy. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to grow by 161,000 in August
  • Seven & i Holdings will reject Alimentation Couche-Tard’s $40 billion takeover offer, deeming the price too low
  • Effissimo Capital Management, an activist investment fund, has increased its stake in Teijin from 6.03% to 7.67%

We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

  • 0.08x P/B. That’s where New World Development (17 HK) is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.
  • So, what’s going on? Announcing an expected HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 last week didn’t help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.
  • Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers. 

KOSPI Size Index Reshuffle Results Out Late Today: Early Positioning Delivered Big Gains

By Sanghyun Park

  • For this September reshuffle, fewer factors affected price impact, so outlier chances were low. Biggest price moves typically occur 30 days before the effective date, especially during LARGE↔MID transitions.
  • Early positioning for this reshuffle paid off. Past trends suggest price action fades before the effective date, so consider exiting positions by tomorrow or early next week.
  • Small→Mid migrants historically show weak price impacts, with no clear correlation observed in this September reshuffle either. I’m avoiding those plays targeting the effective date for now.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Entergy Corp, Wec Energy Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Entergy Corporation: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers
  • WEC Energy Group: Will Its Renewable Energy Investments Pay Off? – Major Drivers


Entergy Corporation: A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Entergy Corporation’s recent earnings underlines several pivotal strides and challenges that it contemplates in its operations and strategic developments.
  • In the financial domain, Entergy reported a robust quarterly adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.92, reflective of the company’s strategic initiatives and operational efficiency, placing it securely on track to meet its 2024 guidance.
  • The financial stability is further underscored by the utility’s meticulous handling of pension liabilities, characterized by a lift-out strategy that has led to the pension plan being 96% funded, reducing financial risk and volatility.

WEC Energy Group: Will Its Renewable Energy Investments Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • WEC Energy Group’s latest quarterly earnings call detailed the company’s financial performance for the second quarter of 2024.
  • The report presents a mixed picture, showcasing robust strategic operations and investments, accompanied by financial nuances inherent to operational challenges, regulation, and planned advancements.
  • Positively, WEC Energy Group reported earnings of $0.67 per share for the second quarter and reasserted its full-year earnings guidance range of $4.80 to $4.90 per share, assuming typical weather conditions for the remainder of the year.

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