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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Singapore: United Overseas Insurance, Ho Bee Land Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • United Overseas Insurance: The Samsung Family of Singapore?
  • Riverstone & Ho Bee Land Chairs Make Fresh Share Purchases
  • Malaysia’s Rubber Sector In Flux As Q1 2025 Draws To A Close


United Overseas Insurance: The Samsung Family of Singapore?

By Alec Tseung

  • UOI received much media attention when a minority shareholder group attempted to push the company to distribute its Haw Par shares and appoint a financial advisor to unlock shareholder value.
  • Although the Board dismissed the request due to the failure to meet statutory requirements, the ownership structure between UOI, UOB, Haw Par, and Wee family remains a valid concern.
  • UOI has underperformed the broader market over the past 5 years; the key to management is how it can grow from a mid-sized local insurer to a leading regional one.

Riverstone & Ho Bee Land Chairs Make Fresh Share Purchases

By Geoff Howie

  • Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks with a net outflow of S$65 million, totaling S$1.73 billion for 2025.
  • Financial Services and REITs saw the highest net institutional outflow, while Industrials and Real Estate (Ex-REITs) had inflow.
  • Share buybacks totaled S$67.6 million, with significant transactions by Hongkong Land and ESR-REIT.

Malaysia’s Rubber Sector In Flux As Q1 2025 Draws To A Close

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • NR production plummets; export and import too down  
  • Ivory Coast once again pips Thailand in imports  
  •  Nitrile gloves posing greater threat to latex gloves

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Daily Brief South Korea: LS Marine Solution, Dowooinsys, Coupang and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • LS Marine Solution: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 278 Billion Won
  • LS Marine Solution’s Rights Deal Is Serving up a Pretty Rare Arbitrage Hunting Ground
  • Dowoo Insys IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Coupang: The Taiwan Market Expansion Can Help Create Significant Long-Term Value!


LS Marine Solution: Rights Offering Capital Raise of 278 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 26 May, LS Marine Solution (060370 KS) announced that it plans to conduct a capital raise worth 278.3 billion won.
  • LS Marine Solution plans to issue 19.57 million new shares in this capital raise, which represents 60% of its outstanding shares. 
  • Despite the company’s strong sales and profit growth, LS Marine Solution’s valuation multiples may be a bit too aggressive, especially with the major rights offering that will dilute existing shareholders. 

LS Marine Solution’s Rights Deal Is Serving up a Pretty Rare Arbitrage Hunting Ground

By Sanghyun Park

  • This raise stands out with a near-60% issuance ratio—fat rights per share make pre-positioning before ex-date a compelling trade with solid pickup potential.
  • LS Cable holds 66.75% and has been steadily upping its stake—likely all-in on this raise, which adds serious anchor support and puts a strong floor under the rights.
  • Skip chasing rights—this setup favors buying shares pre–ex-rights, where the embedded rights value likely beats the ex-day drop, making it a clean trade.

Dowoo Insys IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Dowoo Insys is target price of 40,667 won per share, which is 27%  higher than the high end of the IPO price range (32,000 won). 
  • We used an EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.9x to value the company, which is 10% premium to the comps’ valuation multiples in 2024.
  • The decline in operating margin remains one of the biggest risk factors on the company. Its major customers such as Samsung Display are putting increasing pressure to reduce its prices.

Coupang: The Taiwan Market Expansion Can Help Create Significant Long-Term Value!

By Baptista Research

  • Coupang’s financial performance in the first quarter of 2025 illustrates both positive advancements and ongoing challenges.
  • Consolidated revenue increased by 11% year-over-year, or 21% on a constant currency basis.
  • This growth reflects strong demand and expansion in key segments, supported by an extensive selection of products and enhancements in their delivery service.

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Daily Brief United States: United States Steel, Transdigm Group, Advanced Micro Devices, Datadog , Fidelity National Info Serv, Super Micro Computer, DoorDash , Electronic Arts, Marriott International, Elevation Oncology and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Forged in Politics: Nippon’s $55 Bid for X Heats Up Again
  • TransDigm Group: An Insight Into Its Recent Aftermarket Growth, Market Dynamics & Key Growth Levers!
  • AMD’s Epic Earnings & Shocking Setback: What Is The Impact Of The MASSIVE China-Related Revenue Loss?
  • Datadog’s AI Playbook: Will Data Observability Be the Key to Dominating the Future?
  • Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): Is The Sales Pipeline & Recurring Revenue Growth Here To Stay?
  • Super Micro Computer’s (SMCI) AI Server Shock: NVIDIA Transition Woes & Profit Wipeout Rock Wall Street!
  • DoorDash Inc.: How Autonomous Delivery Initiatives Could Potentially Redefine Logistics Within The Food Delivery & Broader E-Commerce Sectors!
  • Electronic Arts’ Secret Weapon: Can Live Services Really Power Explosive Growth Ahead?
  • Marriott International: Is Its Focus on Fee Structure & Non-RevPAR Growth Paying Off?
  • SSI Weekly Newsletter: Strategic Reviews, Merger Arbitrage, Tender Offers, and Portfolio Updates


Forged in Politics: Nippon’s $55 Bid for X Heats Up Again

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Trump’s endorsement removes the political overhang, reigniting momentum for Nippon Steel’s $55/share all-cash offer.
  • Implied EV/EBITDA of 8.94x reflects ~$2–3B in strategic synergies over standalone valuation.
  • 11.59% annualized return offers attractive arbitrage upside with manageable regulatory and execution risk.

TransDigm Group: An Insight Into Its Recent Aftermarket Growth, Market Dynamics & Key Growth Levers!

By Baptista Research

  • TransDigm Group Inc.’s recent earnings discussion sheds light on both its strengths and challenges, providing insights into the company’s ongoing strategies and performance outlook.
  • During the second quarter of fiscal 2025, TransDigm reported strong operational performance with significant contributions from its commercial aftermarket and defense market channels.
  • Revenue from these divisions displayed healthy growth, while commercial OEM revenues remained largely flat compared to the previous year, indicating an area of potential improvement as production recovers from past disruptions.

AMD’s Epic Earnings & Shocking Setback: What Is The Impact Of The MASSIVE China-Related Revenue Loss?

By Baptista Research

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered a robust start to 2025, reporting stronger-than-expected earnings that reinforced the company’s growth trajectory in high-demand areas like AI and data centers.
  • The semiconductor firm posted first-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.96, slightly above Wall Street’s estimate of $0.94, with total revenue hitting $7.4 billion, surpassing the projected $7.1 billion.
  • This performance was fueled by the impressive 57% year-over-year growth in AMD’s Data Center segment, which reached $3.7 billion.

Datadog’s AI Playbook: Will Data Observability Be the Key to Dominating the Future?

By Baptista Research

  • Regarding Datadog’s Q1 2025 financial results, the company reported a solid performance with a revenue of $762 million, representing a 25% year-over-year increase.
  • This figure surpassed the high end of their guidance.
  • Datadog revealed a customer base of approximately 30,500, with about 3,770 customers having an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $100,000 or more, accounting for 88% of ARR.

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS): Is The Sales Pipeline & Recurring Revenue Growth Here To Stay?

By Baptista Research

  • The first quarter of 2025 results for Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) demonstrated both operational progress and strategic initiatives that position the company robustly for future growth.
  • The revenue growth for the quarter was 4%, with a significant acceleration in recurring revenues, indicative of a resilient business model that thrives across different economic conditions.
  • The quarter was marked by strategic structural changes, notably the announced acquisition of Global Payments’ issuer business and the sale of a minority stake in Worldpay.

Super Micro Computer’s (SMCI) AI Server Shock: NVIDIA Transition Woes & Profit Wipeout Rock Wall Street!

By Baptista Research

  • Super Micro Computer shares experienced their steepest decline in months after the company released preliminary third-quarter fiscal 2025 results that came in well below Wall Street expectations.
  • SMCI stock fell 14% to $30.96, marking its largest one-day drop since late February.
  • The artificial intelligence server maker reported revenue between $4.5 billion and $4.6 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 to $0.31, significantly below analysts’ forecasts of $5.4 billion in revenue and $0.53 EPS.

DoorDash Inc.: How Autonomous Delivery Initiatives Could Potentially Redefine Logistics Within The Food Delivery & Broader E-Commerce Sectors!

By Baptista Research

  • DoorDash’s latest earnings revealed a nuanced overview of its financial performance and strategic direction, highlighting a mix of strengths and challenges.
  • The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated significant growth and ongoing investment in expanding its global footprint through strategic acquisitions.
  • In terms of financial performance, DoorDash saw a continuation of growth trends, with consistent gains in gross order volume (GOV) and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), underscoring operational efficiency.

Electronic Arts’ Secret Weapon: Can Live Services Really Power Explosive Growth Ahead?

By Baptista Research

  • Electronic Arts Inc. recently reported strong financial performance in the last quarter of its fiscal year 2025, showcasing strengths and addressing some challenges faced throughout the year.
  • The company recorded notable achievements with its popular gaming franchises, highlighting its robust position in the gaming industry.
  • One of the significant positives for Electronic Arts was the turnaround in its EA SPORTS FC franchise.

Marriott International: Is Its Focus on Fee Structure & Non-RevPAR Growth Paying Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Marriott International delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, despite a challenging macroeconomic environment.
  • The company reported strong development activity with record first-quarter global signings and a 4.6% net rooms growth over the trailing 12 months.
  • RevPAR (revenue per available room), a key performance indicator for the industry, increased by 4.1% globally, supported by a 3% rise in average daily rate (ADR) and a one percentage point increase in occupancy.

SSI Weekly Newsletter: Strategic Reviews, Merger Arbitrage, Tender Offers, and Portfolio Updates

By Special Situation Investments

  • Elevation Oncology (ELEV) is undergoing a strategic review after discontinuing its lead program, with potential 14–42% upside.
  • Mayne Pharma (MYX:AX) faces merger arbitrage challenges due to Cosette Pharmaceuticals’ Material Adverse Change claims, trading at a 35% discount.
  • Air Canada (AC:TO) offers a tender with odd-lot provision, repurchasing shares at C$18.50 – C$21.00, with potential upside.

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Daily Brief Japan: Tsuruha Holdings, Fuji Media Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Lifenet Insurance Company, Mixi Inc, Nitto Kogyo, Sodick Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan Activism/M&A] – Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger – Now It’s Partial Offer+Synergies
  • [Japan Activism] The Upcoming Fuji Media AGM Stoush – Foreigners Vs Voting Right Limits
  • Is Now Time to Move Forward with Efforts to Raise % Female Board Directors, Even Matching Numbers?
  • LIFENET INSURANCE COMPANY (7157 JP) – Charting the Course for Long-Term Growth
  • MIXI Inc. (2121 JP) – Investing in Scale to Unlock Sustainable Returns
  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 JP) – Full Report – May 2, 2025
  • Sodick (6143 JP) – Building Recovery Momentum


[Japan Activism/M&A] – Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger – Now It’s Partial Offer+Synergies

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning the Nikkei reported shareholders of Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) approved their Merger. Activists opposed but it was going to be close at best.
  • As expected, Welcia shares popped, and the spread converged to 2% with Tsuruha falling back to just below ¥11,400. Some of this is unwind of speculative interest in Tsuruha.  
  • The new yuhos are out, which shows roughly where we stand (as of end-Feb, and some updates). Now the trade is NEWCO vs Aeon’s interest and NEWCO vs World.

[Japan Activism] The Upcoming Fuji Media AGM Stoush – Foreigners Vs Voting Right Limits

By Travis Lundy

  • Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) has for years been “undervalued” and owned by value-oriented actively-managed fund managers. Under-used real estate and IP assets. Lack of governance regarding capital. 
  • A Shukan Bunshun article in Dec-2024 reported a former boy band SMAP member and Fuji TV regular made a big payment to an unidentified woman after a June 2023 “incident.”
  • Fuji TV hemmed and hawed about its involvement. Advertisers bolted. Activists activisted. The chairman resigned. Now Major Activist Dalton has a director slate for the AGM. What Next?

Is Now Time to Move Forward with Efforts to Raise % Female Board Directors, Even Matching Numbers?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It is good to see that affirmative action has increased the number of women managerial positions in ITOCHU. This is presumably due to the increase in foreign ownership.
  • The non-statutory executive officers are not in a legally responsible position and are not involved in management decisions. 2 female independent non-executive directors do not have a management background.
  • Looking at the board compositions, one notices many issues, but AGMs of many companies are concentrated in June, making it difficult to take the time to scrutinize the convocation notices.

LIFENET INSURANCE COMPANY (7157 JP) – Charting the Course for Long-Term Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Solid execution despite macro volatility impact – FY3/25 results were positive, driven by strong performance at the GCL business, a direct result of Lifenet’s partnership strategy.
  • Despite solid execution in FY3/25, the Comprehensive Equity Per Share growth of +4.5% YoY was well below the Company’s FY3/29 target of +10.0% annual growth due to macroeconomic volatility, highlighting the need for investors to focus on the longer term.
  • Looking beyond the FY3/26 guidance, we think Lifenet is well-positioned to deliver longer-term growth with a new technology-oriented CEO, a renewed commitment to accelerating growth at the individual life business, and upside from its partnership-focused growth strategy.

MIXI Inc. (2121 JP) – Investing in Scale to Unlock Sustainable Returns

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Q1-4 FY3/25 results were in line with guidance, with progress made YoY to transform both Sports and Lifestyle segments into material earnings pillars.
  • Company guidance for FY3/26 appears conservative.
  • The core theme is a significant investment in growing the TIPSTAR (domestic keirin, or cycle team sports) betting service, achieving high user retention, and strong sales growth YoY. 

Nitto Kogyo Corporation (6651 JP) – Full Report – May 2, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • Nitto Kogyo Corporation (hereafter, the Company) is a leading manufacturer of distribution boards and panel boards for electrical and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as enclosures that house telecommunications and precision equipment.
  • The company has 42 sales offices and eight factories in Japan.
  • The Company is working to expand its business in ASEAN countries, with overseas production and sales bases in China, Thailand, and Singapore. 

Sodick (6143 JP) – Building Recovery Momentum

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Strong opening quarter – Q1 FY12/25 results were a positive surprise  in our view, with solid sales volume recovery YoY and OPM at 6.8%, marking an 11-quarter high.
  • Key drivers included continued demand recovery in the key Machine Tool business, driven by demand from China, as well as structural demand for MT connectors.
  • Additionally, there was significant growth in Food Machinery, stemming from both domestic and overseas demand. 

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Daily Brief India: InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, Schloss Bangalore Ltd, NIFTY Index, Linde India Ltd, Jubilant Ingrevia, Reliance Industries, JSW Steel Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Another US$800m+ Deal by Co-Founder
  • Schloss Bangalore IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • NIFTY Index Outlook (With an Eye on Zomato’s Passive Selling Starting…)
  • Linde India (LINDEINDIA IN): High-Quality Compounder Riding India’s Industrial and Steel Growth
  • The Beat Ideas: Jubilant Ingrevia-Specialty Formula for Margin Expansion
  • Reliance Industries – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • JSW Steel – Weak Numbers with Deteriorating Metrics, but Expect Improvement


Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Another US$800m+ Deal by Co-Founder

By Akshat Shah

  • InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)‘s co-founder, Rakesh Gangwal, aims to raise around US$803m via selling around a 3.3% stake in Indigo.  
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with his co-founder Rahul Bhatia. He has sold many times before.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Schloss Bangalore IPO – Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$409m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$600m.
  • It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
  • In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

NIFTY Index Outlook (With an Eye on Zomato’s Passive Selling Starting…)

By Nico Rosti


Linde India (LINDEINDIA IN): High-Quality Compounder Riding India’s Industrial and Steel Growth

By Rahul Jain

  • Linde India plans to double gas capacity to 20,000 TPD by FY27 with ₹32 bn capex, including new ASUs for Tata Steel.
  •  FY25 PAT rose 5% despite a 10% revenue dip, driven by margin gains and cost efficiency.
  • Trades at over 80× P/E FY27, appears justified by annuity-like cash flows from critical long-term contracts with top steelmakers.

The Beat Ideas: Jubilant Ingrevia-Specialty Formula for Margin Expansion

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Jubilant Ingrevia has launched its “Pinnacle 3.4.5” strategy targeting 3x revenue and 4x EBITDA growth by FY30, signaling a focused shift toward higher-margin segments.
  • The company’s business mix is rapidly evolving, with Specialty Chemicals and Nutrition now contributing 62% of revenue, improving margin visibility and reducing cyclicality.
  • With increasing downstream integration, global CDMO expansion, and a robust R&D pipeline, Jubilant Ingrevia is transitioning into a structurally higher-margin, innovation-driven player.

Reliance Industries – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Founded in 1973, Reliance Industries (RIL) is one of the largest conglomerates in Asia and India’s largest private-sector corporation. It has diverse businesses including energy, petrochemicals, natural gas, retail, telecommunications, mass media and textiles. RIL is India’s largest exporter, accounting for 8% of total merchandise exports and 5% of the government’s revenue from customs and excise duty. It is listed on the Indian Stock Exchange, with a market cap of c. USD 200 bn. The company is owned (49.5%) and controlled by Mukesh Ambani.


JSW Steel – Weak Numbers with Deteriorating Metrics, but Expect Improvement

By Trung Nguyen

  • JSW Steel’s Q4/24-25 results were poor, with lower revenues and earnings due to a weak pricing environment and despite a record production year from capacity expansion.
  • The balance sheet deteriorated significantly, although liquidity improved materially.
  • We expect FY 2025-26 to be better, with a significant increase in earnings due to an improved pricing environment as well as the new safeguard duty in India.

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Daily Brief China: Soundwill Holdings, Meituan, Shandong Himile Mechanical Science & Technology, Cosco Shipping Development, Beijing Airport High Tech A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food, PegBio, BYD, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, Sands China and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail
  • Meituan (3690 HK): 1Q25, Main Businesses Up by 20%
  • CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Many Changes Expected; US$1bn Trade
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!
  • CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case
  • PegBio IPO Trading Update
  • Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold
  • Hengrui Pharma (1276 HK): Trying to Achieve Total Global Index Inclusion
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Goldlion (533 HK)‘s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
  • Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill’s Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
  • Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 

Meituan (3690 HK): 1Q25, Main Businesses Up by 20%

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q25, total revenue grew by 18% YoY, with main businesses up by 20% YoY.
  • The operating margin rose by 3.6 ppt YoY by cutting every cost in 1Q25.
  • We expect EPS will grow by 37% in 2025 and the stock has an upside of 48%.

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Many Changes Expected; US$1bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 18 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the June rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 1.7% and the round-trip trade is around US$1bn.
  • The index was launched in September 2024, and the passive trackers have taken in a chunk of money since then. The flows to the stocks add to other index flows.
  • A long add/short deletes trade has been stable over the last few months. The forecast adds could outperform following announcement of the index changes on Friday.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract, H Premia Names Perform Best; Batteries!

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) now 5% through. CATL 10% through will help.
  • It feels like there were some concentrated shorts on H vs A. BYD performance on CATL and Hang Seng upweight/inclusion exacerbate the issue. CATL H less liquid than people think.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be up to 8 adds and 3 deletes for the CSI All Share Real Estate Sector Index in June.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 3.2% at the rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 456m. There are a few stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
  • The forecast adds and deletes have performed in line over the last few months, and the announcement of the changes could lead to short-term outperformance.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring H Share Listing: The Investment Case

By Arun George

  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH), a leading Chinese pharmaceutical company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$1 billion.     
  • Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company (FHF HK) has been China’s leading condiments company in terms of sales volume for 28 consecutive years.
  • The investment case rests on its market positioning, return to growth, industry-leading profitability, cash generation and strong balance sheet. However, the valuation of the A Shares is full.

PegBio IPO Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • PegBio raised HKD 300.8m (USD 38m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, May 27th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s GLP-1 product and its valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut. The free float shares are mostly at the hands of retail investors.

Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below HK$100bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly HK$19bn, which is decent.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS and TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Hengrui Pharma (1276 HK): Trying to Achieve Total Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) debuted on the HKEX on 23 May, closing the first day 25% above its offer price, resulting in a market cap of ~$47bn.
  • The security is expected to be assigned to Global-M Standard. Uncertainty for inclusion arises due to relatively low float cap even after the lock-up expiry.
  • The security is forecasted to be added to Global-F All-World in December 2025 and receive an upweight in March 2025 following the lock-up expiry.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sands China, UPL Limited
  • US treasury yields ended slightly lower in a holiday-shortened session on Friday. The decline in yields was supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks that regulators may be “very close” to easing the supplementary leverage ratio, which could support banks’ trading of treasuries.
  • That said, larger yield declines earlier in the day were pared after President Donald Trump issued new tariff threats against the EU and Apple Inc. The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.99% (after dropping as much as 9 bps in the day), while the yield on the 10Y UST ended 2 bps lower at 4.51% (after declining up to 8 bps).

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Most Read: Horizon Robotics, Eternal, Elite Material, Tsuruha Holdings, Bestechnic Shanghai , Fuji Media Holdings, Uni President Enterprises, Soundwill Holdings, Shandong Himile Mechanical Science & Technology, Taishin Financial Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion Today & Upcoming Index Flows
  • Zomato/Eternal: The BIG Passive Selling Starts
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Elite Material (2383 TT) Walking a Fine Line
  • [Japan Activism/M&A] – Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger – Now It’s Partial Offer+Synergies
  • STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ CNI Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Stocks with Overlapping Flow
  • [Japan Activism] The Upcoming Fuji Media AGM Stoush – Foreigners Vs Voting Right Limits
  • Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Five Changes; US$5.2bn Trade; Other Index Flows
  • Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail
  • CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Many Changes Expected; US$1bn Trade
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: Final Expectations; Trade Successful; New Sector-Neutral Idea


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Southbound Stock Connect Inclusion Today & Upcoming Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the start of trading today. Then there will be passive buying at the close on 20 June.
  • The lock up expiry in April will result in large buying from trackers of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) and HSIII Index in September.
  • The stock will also be added to another large global index, though the timing on inclusion is not certain at the moment.

Zomato/Eternal: The BIG Passive Selling Starts

By Brian Freitas

  • Following shareholder approval of the proposal to reduce the Foreign Ownership Limit from 100% to 49.5%, NSDL has updated the FOL. This starts the process of passive selling in Zomato.
  • Passives will sell US$350m at the close on Tuesday. There is a low probability of more selling later in the week. There will be bigger selling in August.
  • The size of the selling in August and beyond will depend on what foreign investors do in the stock till the end of June. Watch the red flag/ breach list.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: Elite Material (2383 TT) Walking a Fine Line

By Brian Freitas


[Japan Activism/M&A] – Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger – Now It’s Partial Offer+Synergies

By Travis Lundy

  • This morning the Nikkei reported shareholders of Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) approved their Merger. Activists opposed but it was going to be close at best.
  • As expected, Welcia shares popped, and the spread converged to 2% with Tsuruha falling back to just below ¥11,400. Some of this is unwind of speculative interest in Tsuruha.  
  • The new yuhos are out, which shows roughly where we stand (as of end-Feb, and some updates). Now the trade is NEWCO vs Aeon’s interest and NEWCO vs World.

STAR Chip/ CES Chips/ CNI Chips Index Rebalance Preview: Multiple Stocks with Overlapping Flow

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 1 change each for the STAR Chip Index and CNI Semiconductor Chips Index, and 3 changes for the CES China Semiconductor Chips Index in June.
  • There are a few stocks that will have same-way flow from passive trackers of the STAR50 INDEX, STAR 100 Index, CSI 500 Index, CSI 1000 Index and CSI A500 Index. 
  • The round-trip trade across the indices is CNY 2.9bn (US$400m) and will add to the impact across the other China indices that rebalance on the same day.

[Japan Activism] The Upcoming Fuji Media AGM Stoush – Foreigners Vs Voting Right Limits

By Travis Lundy

  • Fuji Media Holdings (4676 JP) has for years been “undervalued” and owned by value-oriented actively-managed fund managers. Under-used real estate and IP assets. Lack of governance regarding capital. 
  • A Shukan Bunshun article in Dec-2024 reported a former boy band SMAP member and Fuji TV regular made a big payment to an unidentified woman after a June 2023 “incident.”
  • Fuji TV hemmed and hawed about its involvement. Advertisers bolted. Activists activisted. The chairman resigned. Now Major Activist Dalton has a director slate for the AGM. What Next?

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance Preview: Five Changes; US$5.2bn Trade; Other Index Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • There should be 5 changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. Most changes are due to missing dividend forecasts for constituent stocks.
  • Constituent changes along with capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 17.6% and in a round-trip trade of TWD 157bn (US$5.2bn).
  • There are multiple stocks that have same-way or opposite flow from trackers of other Taiwan dividend yield weighted indices and presents some interesting trading opportunities.

Soundwill (878 HK): Thoughts On The Latest Scheme Fail

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Goldlion (533 HK)‘s spectacular Scheme fail, Soundwill  (878 HK) appeared destined to be the next failure as shares dipped hard ahead of the Scheme vote. And fail it did.
  • Just like for Goldlion, Soundwill’s Offer was clearly light. The counter-argument was that terms were, arguably, as good as it gets. And no competing Offer would emerge. Minorities voiced otherwise.
  • Hong Kong has been the proverbial graveyard for arb deals of late. However, in a positive sense, minorities in Goldlion and Soundwill simply rejected opportunistic Offers. 

CSI A500 Index Rebalance Preview: Many Changes Expected; US$1bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 18 changes for the CSI A500 Index at the June rebalance. Turnover is estimated at 1.7% and the round-trip trade is around US$1bn.
  • The index was launched in September 2024, and the passive trackers have taken in a chunk of money since then. The flows to the stocks add to other index flows.
  • A long add/short deletes trade has been stable over the last few months. The forecast adds could outperform following announcement of the index changes on Friday.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: Final Expectations; Trade Successful; New Sector-Neutral Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
  • Today is the base date for the final ranks and we see five ADDs and five DELs.
  • We estimate one-way flow to be around US$2.55bn with multiple expected ADDs having 10x ADV or more to trade.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Copper, National Aluminium, Empire Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April
  • NALCO (NACL IN): Record FY25 Profit; Alumina-Led Fall Likely Priced In, Execution Remains Key Risk
  • Empire Energy Group Ltd – All that’s remaining is the gas rate


Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

By Sameer Taneja

  • The narrative surrounding China’s front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April’s total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
  • Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
  • We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).

NALCO (NACL IN): Record FY25 Profit; Alumina-Led Fall Likely Priced In, Execution Remains Key Risk

By Rahul Jain

  • NALCO has guided for alumina realizations around $400/t in FY26, with earnings further impacted by delays in ramp-up of its 1 MTPA alumina expansion project.
  • Q4 FY25 results were strong, but earnings outlook has weakened significantly with the steep drop in alumina prices.
  • Valuations appear inexpensive on FY27 earnings at 5x EV/EBITDA, however peristent delays in capacity rampup is concerning. 

Empire Energy Group Ltd – All that’s remaining is the gas rate

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
  • EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
  • Having successfully completed a $27.75m equity capital raise, with an additional $3.25m subject to shareholder approval and SPP take-up, the company should be funded through to first gas from the Carpentaria Pilot Project by around end-2025.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd, Ashok Leyland and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • AVTL: Storage Platform Poised for Growth Amid Demand Visibility
  • Ashok Leyland(AL IN)-Robust Growth ; Value Unlocking from Subsidiary Ahead
  • Aegis Vopak Pre-IPO: Expensive Related to Peers


AVTL: Storage Platform Poised for Growth Amid Demand Visibility

By Rahul Jain

  • Aegis Vopak Terminals is raising Rs2,800 crore via a fresh issue to repay debt and fund expansion, marking its transition into a listed infrastructure platform.
  • LPG capacity is set to triple by FY26, with new industrial terminals planned under a Rs4,500 crore capex; revenue and EBITDA are projected to grow 20–25% CAGR through FY27.
  • Key risks include high dependence on group entities for revenue, delayed utilization of new capacity, and exposure to regulatory or energy demand shifts affecting LPG and chemical flows.

Ashok Leyland(AL IN)-Robust Growth ; Value Unlocking from Subsidiary Ahead

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • Ashok Leyland (AL IN) posted 38% YoY PAT growth in Q4, driven by cost efficiency, premium product mix, and strong EBITDA margin improvement.
  • HLF IPO and Switch India’s PAT target for FY26 positions for significant value unlocking and improved subsidiary contribution.
  • CV demand, export momentum, and alt-fuel investments support a strong FY26 outlook, with valuations supported by improving profitability and resilient balance sheet. 4o

Aegis Vopak Pre-IPO: Expensive Related to Peers

By Nicholas Tan

  • Aegis Vopak Terminals Ltd (1902844D IN)  is looking to raise about US$328m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • It is the largest Indian third-party owner and operator (in terms of storage capacity) of tank storage terminals for liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and liquid products.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s recent financial performance updates, as well as its potential valuation.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Down 2.5% for the Weeka and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | US Down 2.5% for the Weeka
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Down on Trump Tariff Threat but Deadline Extention Will Lift Mood
  • Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings


Ohayo Japan | US Down 2.5% for the Weeka

By Mark Chadwick

  • US markets fell due to Trump tariff plans and rising yields; major indices declined ~2.5%, while gold and Bitcoin rose.
  • Tokyo stocks closed last week in negative territory, with the Nikkei 225 falling 1.6% as investors grappled with shifting U.S. monetary policy expectations, yen volatility, and geopolitical tensions
  • Key Japan corporate news includes SoftBank’s planned ¥43T fund, Nippon Steel’s ¥2T U.S. Steel investment, and proxy votes at Toyota Industries.

Japan Morning Connection: US Down on Trump Tariff Threat but Deadline Extention Will Lift Mood

By Andrew Jackson

  • Apple tariff threat likely just another scare tactic with markets failing to react excessively.
  • May see further Nuclear follow through after Trumps executive order Friday sends related names soaring.
  • Live-Action Elden Ring movie another positive angle for Bandai Namco which also has Gundan on the way.

Impact Of Contracting NIM On Indian Banks Earnings

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Indian banks’ average Net Interest Margins fell 21 basis points in FY25, projected to decline another 9 basis points in FY2026 due to RBI rate cuts and deposit competition pressures.  
  • Robust credit growth continues while deposit growth lags increasing funding costs. Nonperforming Assets for public and private banks are projected to stabilize or decline.  
  • Contracting margins squeeze core income, public banks may see profit decline FY26 despite stable asset quality aiding earnings.

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