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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Gold: DON’T MELT YOUR JEWELRY YET! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold: DON’T MELT YOUR JEWELRY YET!
  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

Gold: DON’T MELT YOUR JEWELRY YET!

By David Mudd

  • We remain BULLISH on gold for the long term; however, price corrections will depend on shorter-term trends in geopolitical factors, central bank buying, and buyer exhaustion. 
  • The strong support for the price of gold comes from rapidly declining real rates and global currency debasement.  These underlying trends coupled with safe haven demand drive the recent surge.
  • ETFs have become the largest source of demand for gold in 2025 at over 50%.  Gold held by central banks is increasing as dollar FX reserves have declined since 2020.

APAC Healthcare Weekly (October 19) – Hansoh, Leads Biolabs, Chugai, SanBio, Celltrion, Samsung Bio

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical entered outlicense agreement with Roche for upfront and milestone payments of $2B+. Leads Biolabs and Dianthus Therapeutics entered into exclusive global license agreement for pre-clinical asset.
  • Chugai Pharmaceutical’s partner Eli Lilly announced positive results from Phase 3 trials of orforglipron. SanBio Co announced that their partial change application for AKUUGO is one step ahead for approval.
  • Celltrion launched Actemra biosimilar, Aptozma in the U.S. at ~35% discount to original drug. Samsung Biologics shareholders approved biologics business spin-off plan to transform the company into a pure-play CDMO.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief India: Sammaan Capital and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Sammaan Capital: Can Capital Boost from Abu Dhabi Turnaround Its Fortunes?

Sammaan Capital: Can Capital Boost from Abu Dhabi Turnaround Its Fortunes?

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Sammaan Capital approved a 3-part preferential issue to Avenir, part of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign-controlled IHC, aggregating INR 8,850 crore (USD 1.06 billion) in equity and warrants (convertible in 18 months)
  • Sammaan has been looking out for an equity partner for few quarters now. Avenir’s backing not just improves capital positioning but also helps restructure overall liability side of the business
  • Upon consummation (80% probability), we anticipate material re-rating potential. However, there are multiple risks in the near term, including accelerated write-offs. Further, an ongoing litigation may jeopardize the deal itself.

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief China: Hang Seng Bank, Hang Seng Index, Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd., Ping An Healthcare and Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mandarin Oriental, RPMGlobal, Genting, Mayne Pharma, Iress, Kangji Medical
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

By David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens

By John Ley

  • Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.
  • Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.
  • We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mandarin Oriental, RPMGlobal, Genting, Mayne Pharma, Iress, Kangji Medical

By David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved – potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.
  • The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.
  • Due to the concerns on Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)’s business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock
  • First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA’s Party
  • SHORT ESR Kendall Square REIT: Korea Logistics Oversupply & K-REIT Funding
  • Mandarin Oriental: Good Deal for Jardine, Not So Much for Mandarin Oriental Minorities
  • Rio Tinto: Production in Q3/25 Robust, Metal Price Risks Remain
  • Can H&M Group Balance Tariffs, Technology, & Trend Cycles to Stay on Top of Fast Fashion?
  • Merit Medical Just Acquired CryoBalloon—Here’s What Wall Street Missed!
  • S&P Acquires With Intelligence For $1.8 Billion—What It Means For Wall Street’s Data Wars!
  • Estée Lauder Considers Offloading ‘Too Faced’—And Investors Are Watching!
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

By Michael Allen

  • Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
  • In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
  • Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA’s Party

By William Keating

  • OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.
  • OpenAI’s AMD & Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?
  • In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!

SHORT ESR Kendall Square REIT: Korea Logistics Oversupply & K-REIT Funding

By Jacob Cheng

  • Despite having strong operational performances, we think ESR KS REIT is currently facing 2 headwinds, 1 structural issue and 1 cyclical issue
  • Korea listed companies are generally suffering from under-valuation and excessive equity raise.  The equity raises, which are done at discount to NAV, is value destructive
  • In the physical market, we think the logistics market is facing oversupply issue, slow absorption and protected recovery.

Mandarin Oriental: Good Deal for Jardine, Not So Much for Mandarin Oriental Minorities

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio Tinto: Production in Q3/25 Robust, Metal Price Risks Remain

By Graeme Cunningham

  • The Q3/25 production update was taken well by the market, with iron ore output near flat yoy, copper jumping 10%, and moderate growth for aluminum, alumina and bauxite
  • Some reorganization has started under new CEO Simon Trott, with IOC reported with the core iron ore segment, and two divisions, Borates and Iron and Titanium, placed under review 
  • We see risks from major iron ore market shifts and a potential cyclical downturn hitting copper and aluminum, and it could be fully valued on our below-consensus metal price estimates 

Can H&M Group Balance Tariffs, Technology, & Trend Cycles to Stay on Top of Fast Fashion?

By Baptista Research

  • The H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB Group’s earnings report for the third quarter of 2025 presents both promising advancements and ongoing challenges typical of the fashion retail industry in a dynamic global market.
  • The company recorded a 2% sales growth in local currencies despite reducing its store count by 4% from the previous year.
  • This growth was supported by improvements in their digital platform, indicating successful digital transformation efforts that are resonating well with customers worldwide.

Merit Medical Just Acquired CryoBalloon—Here’s What Wall Street Missed!

By Baptista Research

  • Merit Medical Systems has made headlines with its definitive agreement to acquire the C2 CryoBalloon technology from Pentax for $22 million—$19 million in upfront cash and up to $3 million in milestone-based contingent payments.
  • This move, expected to close in Q4 2025, marks a strategic push by Merit into the gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy space, targeting patients with Barrett’s esophagus and other GI disorders.
  • This asset purchase follows a broader industry trend of tuck-in acquisitions aimed at boosting specialty portfolios while maintaining capital discipline.

S&P Acquires With Intelligence For $1.8 Billion—What It Means For Wall Street’s Data Wars!

By Baptista Research

  • S&P Global is making strategic waves again with its recent agreement to acquire alternative assets data provider With Intelligence for $1.8 billion.
  • The transaction, announced in October 2025, marks another major step by S&P to extend its footprint beyond public markets and deepen its capabilities across private markets.
  • Expected to close either later in 2025 or early 2026, the deal is subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.

Estée Lauder Considers Offloading ‘Too Faced’—And Investors Are Watching!

By Baptista Research

  • Estée Lauder Companies is reportedly exploring a divestiture of its cosmetics brand Too Faced, according to a recent Axios Pro report.
  • Acquired in 2016 for $1.45 billion, Too Faced was once seen as a critical pillar of Estée’s efforts to appeal to younger, trend-conscious consumers through multibrand retailers like Sephora and Ulta.
  • However, performance in the color cosmetics category has lagged, especially following pandemic-related disruptions and intensifying competition from newer indie entrants.

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved – potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.
  • The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.
  • Due to the concerns on Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)’s business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, BillionToOne, Evommune, S&P Global , Merit Medical Systems, Estee Lauder Companies Cl A, International Business Machines and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA’s Party
  • BillionToOne, Inc (BLLN): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Precision Diagnostics Company
  • Evommune Inc. (EVMN): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Chronic Inflammatory Biotech Company
  • S&P Acquires With Intelligence For $1.8 Billion—What It Means For Wall Street’s Data Wars!
  • Merit Medical Just Acquired CryoBalloon—Here’s What Wall Street Missed!
  • BillionToOne IPO (BLLN.US): Unique Financial Profile For Molecular Diagnostics Company, Strong Buy
  • Estée Lauder Considers Offloading ‘Too Faced’—And Investors Are Watching!
  • IBM Goes All-In On SAP—What The Cognitus Deal Really Means!

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA’s Party

By William Keating

  • OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.
  • OpenAI’s AMD & Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?
  • In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!

BillionToOne, Inc (BLLN): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Precision Diagnostics Company

By IPO Boutique

  • Their revolutionary single molecule NGS (smNGS) platform achieves what was once thought impossible – detecting and precisely quantifying genetic targets with single-molecule sensitivity.
  • For the year ended December 31, 2024, they generated revenue of $152.6 million, representing 113% year-over-year growth, with a gross margin of 53% and net loss of $41.6 million.
  • BillionToOne has raised nearly $400 million in equity funding prior to its IPO, complemented by debt financing, and continues to innovate within prenatal, oncology, and rare disease testing markets. 

Evommune Inc. (EVMN): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of a Chronic Inflammatory Biotech Company

By IPO Boutique

  • Evommune is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing therapies for chronic inflammatory diseases.
  • Their most advanced clinical-stage product candidate, EVO756, is a potent and highly selective oral small molecule antagonist of MRGPRX2, a receptor predominantly found on mast cells and peripheral sensory neurons.
  • The company is backed by many well-known sector dedicated investors including RA Capital. 

S&P Acquires With Intelligence For $1.8 Billion—What It Means For Wall Street’s Data Wars!

By Baptista Research

  • S&P Global is making strategic waves again with its recent agreement to acquire alternative assets data provider With Intelligence for $1.8 billion.
  • The transaction, announced in October 2025, marks another major step by S&P to extend its footprint beyond public markets and deepen its capabilities across private markets.
  • Expected to close either later in 2025 or early 2026, the deal is subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.

Merit Medical Just Acquired CryoBalloon—Here’s What Wall Street Missed!

By Baptista Research

  • Merit Medical Systems has made headlines with its definitive agreement to acquire the C2 CryoBalloon technology from Pentax for $22 million—$19 million in upfront cash and up to $3 million in milestone-based contingent payments.
  • This move, expected to close in Q4 2025, marks a strategic push by Merit into the gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy space, targeting patients with Barrett’s esophagus and other GI disorders.
  • This asset purchase follows a broader industry trend of tuck-in acquisitions aimed at boosting specialty portfolios while maintaining capital discipline.

BillionToOne IPO (BLLN.US): Unique Financial Profile For Molecular Diagnostics Company, Strong Buy

By Andrei Zakharov

  • BillionToOne Inc., a fastest-growing healthtech unicorn in the prenatal and oncology testing market in the U.S., set terms for its US IPO.
  • The California-based molecular diagnostics company posts hyper-growth and enjoys industry-leading gross margins. Positive non-GAAP op income is likely to be achieved in 2025.
  • BillionToOne Inc. has delivered 3+ years of exceptional revenue growth with a +167% CAGR over the past three years and strong gross margin profile supporting emerging profitability.

Estée Lauder Considers Offloading ‘Too Faced’—And Investors Are Watching!

By Baptista Research

  • Estée Lauder Companies is reportedly exploring a divestiture of its cosmetics brand Too Faced, according to a recent Axios Pro report.
  • Acquired in 2016 for $1.45 billion, Too Faced was once seen as a critical pillar of Estée’s efforts to appeal to younger, trend-conscious consumers through multibrand retailers like Sephora and Ulta.
  • However, performance in the color cosmetics category has lagged, especially following pandemic-related disruptions and intensifying competition from newer indie entrants.

IBM Goes All-In On SAP—What The Cognitus Deal Really Means!

By Baptista Research

  • In a bold move to extend its footprint in the enterprise IT services space, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Dallas-based Cognitus, a niche SAP S/4HANA services provider.
  • The financial terms of the deal remain undisclosed, but the strategic rationale appears clear.
  • With this acquisition, IBM aims to bolster its SAP consulting capabilities, especially in complex and regulated sectors such as aerospace, energy, and manufacturing.

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Rio Tinto Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto: Production in Q3/25 Robust, Metal Price Risks Remain

Rio Tinto: Production in Q3/25 Robust, Metal Price Risks Remain

By Graeme Cunningham

  • The Q3/25 production update was taken well by the market, with iron ore output near flat yoy, copper jumping 10%, and moderate growth for aluminum, alumina and bauxite
  • Some reorganization has started under new CEO Simon Trott, with IOC reported with the core iron ore segment, and two divisions, Borates and Iron and Titanium, placed under review 
  • We see risks from major iron ore market shifts and a potential cyclical downturn hitting copper and aluminum, and it could be fully valued on our below-consensus metal price estimates 

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Japan: Shiseido Company and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

By Michael Allen

  • Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
  • In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
  • Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NVIDIA Corp, Samsung Electronics Pref Shares, Hang Seng Index, International Business Machines and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA’s Party
  • Final Samsung Electronics Stake Sale: Overhang Risk, Control Optics, & Clean Pref Reversion Trade
  • Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens
  • IBM Goes All-In On SAP—What The Cognitus Deal Really Means!

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA’s Party

By William Keating

  • OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.
  • OpenAI’s AMD & Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?
  • In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!

Final Samsung Electronics Stake Sale: Overhang Risk, Control Optics, & Clean Pref Reversion Trade

By Sanghyun Park

  • Near‑term flow looks muted: Shinhan likely drips ~0.3% SO stake into liquid tape, not a block. With ₩2tn daily turnover, market easily absorbs without price shock.
  • Top‑holder stake dips 20.14→19.84% post‑sale, but ₩10tn buyback cancels ~1.5ppt float, restoring 20.14%. The 0.3% selldown’s pre‑calculated; no real trading juice, flow impact minimal.
  • Inheritance‑tax overhang done, buyback cycle fading. Gov’t pressure plus family’s last selldown point to dividend ramp. Prefs at 23% discount vs 10% target set up clean reversion trade.

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens

By John Ley

  • Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.
  • Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.
  • We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.

IBM Goes All-In On SAP—What The Cognitus Deal Really Means!

By Baptista Research

  • In a bold move to extend its footprint in the enterprise IT services space, International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Dallas-based Cognitus, a niche SAP S/4HANA services provider.
  • The financial terms of the deal remain undisclosed, but the strategic rationale appears clear.
  • With this acquisition, IBM aims to bolster its SAP consulting capabilities, especially in complex and regulated sectors such as aerospace, energy, and manufacturing.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Financials: Sammaan Capital, ESR Kendall Square REIT, Hang Seng Bank, S&P Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Sammaan Capital: Can Capital Boost from Abu Dhabi Turnaround Its Fortunes?
  • SHORT ESR Kendall Square REIT: Korea Logistics Oversupply & K-REIT Funding
  • Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths
  • S&P Acquires With Intelligence For $1.8 Billion—What It Means For Wall Street’s Data Wars!

Sammaan Capital: Can Capital Boost from Abu Dhabi Turnaround Its Fortunes?

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Sammaan Capital approved a 3-part preferential issue to Avenir, part of Abu Dhabi’s sovereign-controlled IHC, aggregating INR 8,850 crore (USD 1.06 billion) in equity and warrants (convertible in 18 months)
  • Sammaan has been looking out for an equity partner for few quarters now. Avenir’s backing not just improves capital positioning but also helps restructure overall liability side of the business
  • Upon consummation (80% probability), we anticipate material re-rating potential. However, there are multiple risks in the near term, including accelerated write-offs. Further, an ongoing litigation may jeopardize the deal itself.

SHORT ESR Kendall Square REIT: Korea Logistics Oversupply & K-REIT Funding

By Jacob Cheng

  • Despite having strong operational performances, we think ESR KS REIT is currently facing 2 headwinds, 1 structural issue and 1 cyclical issue
  • Korea listed companies are generally suffering from under-valuation and excessive equity raise.  The equity raises, which are done at discount to NAV, is value destructive
  • In the physical market, we think the logistics market is facing oversupply issue, slow absorption and protected recovery.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

By David Blennerhassett

S&P Acquires With Intelligence For $1.8 Billion—What It Means For Wall Street’s Data Wars!

By Baptista Research

  • S&P Global is making strategic waves again with its recent agreement to acquire alternative assets data provider With Intelligence for $1.8 billion.
  • The transaction, announced in October 2025, marks another major step by S&P to extend its footprint beyond public markets and deepen its capabilities across private markets.
  • Expected to close either later in 2025 or early 2026, the deal is subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Mandarin Oriental International, Shiseido Company, Hennes & Mauritz AB, Estee Lauder Companies Cl A, Ping An Healthcare and Technology and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer
  • Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock
  • Mandarin Oriental: Good Deal for Jardine, Not So Much for Mandarin Oriental Minorities
  • Can H&M Group Balance Tariffs, Technology, & Trend Cycles to Stay on Top of Fast Fashion?
  • Estée Lauder Considers Offloading ‘Too Faced’—And Investors Are Watching!
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Jardine Matheson’s Attractive Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP) disclosed a privatisation offer from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) at US$3.35 (US$2.75 cash + US$0.60 special dividend), a 39.6% premium to the last close. 
  • The special dividend represents the majority of the proceeds from the sale of the top thirteen floors of One Causeway Bay (OCB) to Alibaba and Ant Group for US$925 million. 
  • The offer is final. The scheme is conditional on the completion of the OCB sale and Mandarin shareholder approval. This is a done deal due to an attractive offer. 

Why Shiseido (4911) Never Worked as a Turnaround Stock

By Michael Allen

  • Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
  • In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
  • Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  

Mandarin Oriental: Good Deal for Jardine, Not So Much for Mandarin Oriental Minorities

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Can H&M Group Balance Tariffs, Technology, & Trend Cycles to Stay on Top of Fast Fashion?

By Baptista Research

  • The H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB Group’s earnings report for the third quarter of 2025 presents both promising advancements and ongoing challenges typical of the fashion retail industry in a dynamic global market.
  • The company recorded a 2% sales growth in local currencies despite reducing its store count by 4% from the previous year.
  • This growth was supported by improvements in their digital platform, indicating successful digital transformation efforts that are resonating well with customers worldwide.

Estée Lauder Considers Offloading ‘Too Faced’—And Investors Are Watching!

By Baptista Research

  • Estée Lauder Companies is reportedly exploring a divestiture of its cosmetics brand Too Faced, according to a recent Axios Pro report.
  • Acquired in 2016 for $1.45 billion, Too Faced was once seen as a critical pillar of Estée’s efforts to appeal to younger, trend-conscious consumers through multibrand retailers like Sephora and Ulta.
  • However, performance in the color cosmetics category has lagged, especially following pandemic-related disruptions and intensifying competition from newer indie entrants.

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.19)-Bubble of HK Biotech Is Bursting, Ping An Good Doctor Is Overvalued

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The “turning point” occurs as share price of innovative drug sector is pulling back. Many companies would see valuations halved – potentially more than once.The decline is far from over.
  • The current main goal of biotech is to turn losses into profits ASAP. If it fails to make a profit, it may not be recognized by the market.
  • Due to the concerns on Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)’s business model, peak revenue scale could be just RMB8 billion. In other words, Ping An Healthcare is overvalued.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free