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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: Positioning Watch – Commodities Are Finally Moving and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Positioning Watch – Commodities Are Finally Moving
  • CX Daily: Chinese Pharma Turns to Global Deals to Cure Capital Crunch
  • Macro Nugget: Diverging US and Europe Inflation Outlook
  • Money Watch: Trillions of USDs Are Waiting to Be Unleashed
  • Turbulent Stillness: US & UK Rates Amidst Volatility


Positioning Watch – Commodities Are Finally Moving

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! We have been all about the possibility of a cyclical rebound with the US economy showing great signs at the moment, and China is also potentially looking to beat the fairly bearish expectations (and why barely anyone has been net long cyclicals in all asset spaces).
  • This leaves markets with a great divergence, as Europe is yet to show the same signs of momentum, and inflation expectations (between USD and EUR) are also starting to diverge, but positioning has not followed accordingly.
  • Let’s rerun our current trades to kick things off: Equities: Long Materials and Long Korea (as a China proxy).

CX Daily: Chinese Pharma Turns to Global Deals to Cure Capital Crunch

By Caixin Global

  • Biotech / Cover story: Chinese pharma turns to global deals to cure capital crunch
  • Obituary /Chinese beverage tycoon Zong Qinghou dies at 79
  • Fire /Nanjing e-bike parking lot fire kills 15 after spreading to apartment building

Macro Nugget: Diverging US and Europe Inflation Outlook

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Yesterday we got the full release of the February Ifo report from Germany.
  • We note that price expectations in services ex. real estate fell almost 10 percentage points.
  • One of our high conviction macro bets for this year is the major divergence between US and Euro inflation and looking at the below chart using employment data from Ifo and compensation plans from the NFIB Survey in the US certainly points in this direction.

Money Watch: Trillions of USDs Are Waiting to Be Unleashed

By Andreas Steno

  • Money trends were abysmal for most parts of 2022 and the early parts of 2023, but we are starting to see interesting trends arising in the global money growth with clear geographical divergences.
  • Japan, China and the Euro zone have reported January M1, M2 and M3 developments and while trends remain benign in JPY and CNY, the money trends in EUR are re-worsening.
  • A gap seems to be opening between USD and EUR money trends, which rhymes well with our strong thesis of a growing inflation gap between the US and the Euro zone.

Turbulent Stillness: US & UK Rates Amidst Volatility

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The past four weeks have been a whirlwind for fixed-income markets, with seemingly contradictory signals emerging across US and UK rates.
  • While volatility reigns supreme, the question remains: are we witnessing a fundamental shift or temporary turbulence?
  • Recent weeks have seen wide weekly ranges (28bps) despite minimal net change (-2bps), suggesting unease amongst investors.

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Daily Brief Australia: Adbri and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer


Adbri (ABC AU): CRH and Barro’s Binding A$3.20 Offer

By Arun George

  • Adbri (ABC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with CRH (CRH US) and Barro at A$3.20 per share, a 41.0% premium to the undisturbed price of A$2.27 (13 December).
  • The offer requires shareholder and FIRB approval. FIRB approval for the bidder, CRH, should be forthcoming as it is a Fortune 500 company with HQ in Ireland. 
  • The offer is attractive vs. peer multiples and historical ranges. At the last close and for a mid-June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.9%/6.6%.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Ecopro BM , Sfa Engineering, HD Hyundai , Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure
  • Block Deal Sale of 5% Stake In SFA Engineering by Samsung Display
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer
  • Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI
  • Constituents of the 1st Corporate Value Up ETF in Korea
  • Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF


Ecopro BM KOSPI Transfer Listing Disclosure

By Sanghyun Park

  • The schedule includes submitting the transfer listing application post-EGM on March 26th. KRX approval expected in 4-6 weeks due to Ecopro BM’s financial soundness. KOSPI listing follows in 2-3 weeks.
  • As for KOSDAQ 150 ad-hoc change, it will be replaced with the top reserved issue. The anticipated timing for this ad-hoc change is around mid or late May.
  • Following Feb 7 disclosure, stock surged over 10% in 2 days. Precedents show rallies pre-shareholder meetings, but KOSPI listing brings corrections. Today’s resolution could boost Ecopro BM short term.

Block Deal Sale of 5% Stake In SFA Engineering by Samsung Display

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 February, Samsung Display announced that it will sell its 4.95% stake in Sfa Engineering (056190 KS) in a block deal sale. 
  • We would take the trade. We like the relatively large block deal sale discount as well as the company’s attractive valuations. 
  • SFA Engineering is trading at P/E of 8.3x, EV/EBITDA of 2.7x, and P/B of 0.7x in 2024, which are much lower than historical valuations.

Ecopro BM (247540 KS): Index Impact of KOSDAQ to KOSPI Transfer

By Brian Freitas

  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS)‘s Board has approved the delisting of the stock from the KOSDAQ market and to list on the KOSPI market. The shareholder meeting is on 26 March. 
  • Historically, the KRX has taken an average of 64 days from application to approve the listing to transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market.
  • Ecopro BM (247540 KS) will be deleted from the KOSDAQ 150 Index on its last trading day and inclusion in the KOSPI 200 Index could take place in September.

Ecopro BM: Announces It Will Switch Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 27 February, Ecopro BM (247540 KS) announced that it will switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
  • Ecopro BM currently has a market cap of 23.1 trillion won. It is the largest stock in KOSDAQ right now and it would be the 17th largest stock in KOSPI.
  • Lofty valuation is one of the main reasons why we continue to be bearish on Ecopro BM. It is trading at P/E of 203x in 2024 and 71x in 2025.

Constituents of the 1st Corporate Value Up ETF in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • Samsung Active Management launched the first Corporate Value Up ETF called KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF on 27 February. It also revealed some of the major constituents of this ETF.
  • Samsung Active Management revealed the top 20 constituents of this ETF, which comprised 73.2% of the total ETF AUM.
  • In the coming weeks, there will be many other Corporate Value Up related ETFs that will be created that are similar to Samsung’s KoAct Dividend Growth ETF. 

Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF: A Look at the First Corporate Value-Up ETF

By Brian Freitas

  • The Samsung KoAct Dividend Growth Active ETF (476850F.KS) raised around US$7.4m and started trading on 27 February.
  • There are 45 stocks in the ETF and the aim is to beat the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX) by employing an active management strategy. 
  • Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials stocks make up nearly two-thirds of the ETF, the dividend yield of the underlying basket is 4% and the forward dividend yield is slightly higher.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Comfortdelgro Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists


Comfortdelgro (CD): March on Chinese Tourists

By Henry Soediarko

  • Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) share price has underperformed its tourism related transport operator peers.
  • Key drivers are still strong, including the expected influx of Chinese tourists from visa-free travel arrangements.
  • Valuation is still compelling, and it is not too late to own it.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: BFI Finance Indonesia, Matahari Department Store and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Visibility Improves
  • Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) – Primed for Recovery


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Visibility Improves

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia saw a marked turnaround in new bookings and a declining NPF ratio in 4Q2023, as its business recovered from the malware attack in May last year.
  • The company has started to be more aggressive in non-dealer 4W space but remains cautious on 2W. Write-offs peaked in 4Q2023 and will decline in 2024, leading to lower CoC. 
  • BFIN will launch a tripartite collaboration with GoTo and Bank Jago which will help to drive future bookings growth. Valuations remain attractive with BFIN trading in 2.0x PBV 

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) – Primed for Recovery

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) reported another slow set of results in 4Q2023, as it saw slower demand and continues to clear aged inventory. 
  • The company is well-prepared for the upcoming Lebaran season with more conservative inventory levels. It will also see the benefits of new brands coming on stream this year. 
  • Matahari Department Store will open 4-6 new stores in 2024 but close 10 underperforming stores, with a continued focus on new DP brands like SUKO. Valuations remain attractive. 

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Daily Brief United States: Samsonite, NVIDIA Corp, Dollar Index, Immix Biopharma Inc, Eli Lilly & Co, Ecolab Inc, Bristol Myers Squibb Co, Illinois Tool Works and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsonite (1910 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation
  • Samsonite (1910 HK): Leader Of The Pack
  • Samsonite (1910 HK) Takeover Interest: Hold on to These Shares
  • IFS Connect Takeaways | Nvidia Earnings as the New Semiconductor King
  • U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.
  • Immix Biopharma – 2023 recap with a preview of active year ahead
  • Eli Lilly & Company: Product pipeline evolution with focus on improved patient outcomes! – Major Drivers
  • Ecolab Inc: Successful Pricing Initiatives and Delivered Product Costs (DPC) Management! – Major Drivers
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: The Ongoing Growth Story Of Each Of Its Core Drugs! – Major Drivers
  • Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified


Samsonite (1910 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reports that Samsonite (1910 HK) is drawing takeover interest from several PE firms which aim to relist Samsonite in the US to draw a higher valuation. 
  • A standard takeover premium (around 30%) should be sufficient due to the shareholder register. There is no single large shareholder(s) to pose an issue to an offer. 
  • The probability of an offer is medium, with an offer price likely around HK$30.00. Irrespective of a binding offer, the upside remains as Samsonite trades at an undemanding valuation. 

Samsonite (1910 HK): Leader Of The Pack

By David Blennerhassett

  • Luggage maker Samsonite (1910 HK) is up 11.8% today, as I type, after Bloomberg reported it is working with advisers as it studies possibilities, including going private.
  • With the reopening of China and the ongoing recovery in travel globally, Samsonite’s net sales improved markedly across all regions. 1H23 profit gained 185.3% versus 1H22.
  • FY23 figures should be out in the middle of next month.

Samsonite (1910 HK) Takeover Interest: Hold on to These Shares

By Mohshin Aziz

  • Bloomberg reported that Samsonite (1910 HK) is considering several options, including going private, and there are several suitors including from buyout firms  
  • Share price has surged by 14% in the morning session. Stock is still very cheap, at 10.5x PE, 7.5x EV/EBITDA with an impressive ROE of 30%
  • Our quick take values Samsonite at HKD34/share, based on its forecasted +1 year earnings multiplied to its average long-term PE of 15.5x 

IFS Connect Takeaways | Nvidia Earnings as the New Semiconductor King

By The Circuit

  • Nvidia emerges as a strong challenger in the semiconductor industry, while intel remains the dominant player
  • Intel makes significant strides in its foundry business, showcasing a clear focus on advanced nodes like 18A and 14A
  • Intel positions itself as a serious player in the foundry market, attracting key customers like Microsoft and building a strong ecosystem around its offerings

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

By Joe Jasper

  • Large-Cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
  • Mid-Caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
  • Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.

Immix Biopharma – 2023 recap with a preview of active year ahead

By Edison Investment Research

IMMX has shared a 12-month recap, capturing key clinical and regulatory events from 2023, setting the stage for an active 2024. Its lead CAR-T asset (NXC-201) is a B-cell maturation antigen (BCMA) targeting therapy for amyloid light chain amyloidosis (ALA) and multiple myeloma (MM). The latest clinical data (Phase Ib/IIa NEXICART-1 trial) showed an overall response rate (ORR) of 100% in ALA patients (n=10) and 90% in MM patients (n=50). On the regulatory front, NXC-201 received Orphan Drug designation (ODD) in February 2024 from the EMA for ALA, and in Q323 from the FDA for ALA and MM. The FDA also cleared Immix’s Investigational New Drug (IND) application in Q423, permitting NXC-201 dosing at US trial sites (NEXICART-2 trial for ALA patients). We believe this is an important development step for NXC-201, and we look forward to rolling data readouts after the start of NEXICART-2, most likely in H124.


Eli Lilly & Company: Product pipeline evolution with focus on improved patient outcomes! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Eli Lilly and Company’s Q4 2023 earnings showed a year of growth and advancement for the company.
  • Revenue increased by 20 percent for the full year and 28 percent for the most recent quarter, as seen in the company’s newly launched portfolio gaining momentum.
  • Notably, the company received regulatory approvals for Zepbound, Jaypirca, Omvoh, Ebglyss in the EU, and an expanded label for Verzenio and two new indications for Jardiance within 2023.

Ecolab Inc: Successful Pricing Initiatives and Delivered Product Costs (DPC) Management! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ecolab Inc., during their latest earnings, highlighted strong growth in their fourth quarter performance for 2023, solidifying a favorable year for the company.
  • Despite unstable macroeconomic conditions, the team drove value-based pricing while consistently maintaining strong business momentum.
  • Their success arose from creating value for customers by enhancing operational performance, as well as reducing water and energy consumption.

Bristol-Myers Squibb: The Ongoing Growth Story Of Each Of Its Core Drugs! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) reported a strong fourth quarter for 2023 with sales momentum in both their established and new product portfolios, showing a growth of 9% and earning nearly $10 billion in revenue.
  • Multiple key brands, including Eliquis, Opdivo, Reblozyl, Opdualag, Breyanzi, Camzyos, and Sotyktu, contributed to this growth.
  • In addition, BMS generated significant cash flows from operations amounting to $4.3 billion.

Illinois Tool Works: A Diversified

By Baptista Research

  • Generators and machine producer, Illinois Tool Works Inc.
  • (ITW) has reported a modest growth amidst the unique operational challenges faced in the fourth quarter of 2023.
  • In particular, the company confronted reduced demand for capital expenditure (CapEx), lean customer inventories and a strike within the automotive industry.

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Daily Brief India: MTAR Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis


MTAR Technologies- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • MTAR Technologies (MTARTECH IN)  is a precision engineered company that caters to customers in clean energy, Space, Defense sectors, etc. 
  • The company has done well over the last few years in terms of securing business, however there are concerns on the margins end, working capital and cash generation. 
  • There also exists a high business risk in terms of customer concentration since more than 75% of the revenues (F23) come from one single entity.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toei Animation, Rakuten Group , Outsourcing Inc, Aeon Co Ltd, Olympus Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting
  • Rakuten’s New “Bond-Type Share” Issuance – Quite Quirky to Quantulate Rakuten’s Quisquous New Quoz
  • Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB
  • Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms
  • Aeon: Logistics Issues Drive Efficiency
  • Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Q3 Operating Profit Misses Estimates Despite Sales Beat; FY24 Guidance Cut


Toei Animation (4816 JP) – This Offering Could Be Heavy; the NEXT Offering Is More Interesting

By Travis Lundy


Rakuten’s New “Bond-Type Share” Issuance – Quite Quirky to Quantulate Rakuten’s Quisquous New Quoz

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue “Bond-Type Class Shares.”   First reaction: You wot, mate?
  • The company states it wants to “strengthen its financial base through reducing interesting-bearing debt by equity-related financings and conduct proactive control of debt maturity schedule, etc.”
  • Now it wants to issue listed bond-type shares. Dividends not interest. The last Japanese issuer of something similar was NEC in 2001. Few will remember, so we study the situation.

Outsourcing (2427) MBO Arrives! Bain Launches Cheeky, Opportunistic, Low(Priced) TOB

By Travis Lundy

  • After an extension due to a European Foreign Subsidies Review filing, and a small ‘accident’ regarding the earnings release, we have a deal. 
  • The earnings release itself seemed more innocuous than articles and rumour suggested show the causes of impairments and so it seemed like there was little cause to walk/declare MAC.
  • Now it will be done in 20 days. I still think this is cheeky, opportunistic, and low, and it is up to the float to decide what to do.

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

By Arun George

  • Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).
  • Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.
  • The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.

Aeon: Logistics Issues Drive Efficiency

By Michael Causton

  • Restrictions on driver overtime due in April are forcing logistics rationalisation across supply chains.
  • Aeon is one of the few retailers that runs its own logistics platforms but, even so, changes to logistics practices will feed through to how stores are merchandised
  • This could result in competitive pressure on smaller supermarket chains.

Olympus Corp (7733 JP): Q3 Operating Profit Misses Estimates Despite Sales Beat; FY24 Guidance Cut

By Tina Banerjee

  • Olympus Corp (7733 JP) announced disappointing Q3FY24 result. Although revenue increased 7% YoY to ¥239B, beating estimate of ¥236B, operating profit declined 30% YoY to ¥34B, below estimate of ¥43B.
  • The company cut FY24 operating profit guidance for second time and reduced revenue guidance after raising it in November. Noto Peninsula earthquake is the main reason for reducing revenue guidance.
  • Although both revenue and profits are expected to improve in FY25, it will be difficult to achieve an operating margin of 20% and sales growth of 5%.

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Daily Brief China: Tongcheng Travel Holdings , Li Auto , Baidu, Cathay Pacific Airways, Luckin Coffee, Air China Ltd (H), China Vanke , Xunfei Healthcare Technology and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal
  • HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$146)TP Change]: The Commercialization Path of AI Is Becoming Clear
  • Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$41) TP Change]: Weak Earnings Could Be Temporary…Reiterate BUY
  • Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke
  • Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology – Continuous Losses Will Be the Norm


Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal

By Travis Lundy

  • The Hang Seng Index, HSCEI, and HS Tech rebals were announced on 16 Feb. Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA had expected GDS out, Tongcheng Travel in on HSTECH, along with the…
  • …deletion of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) in HSCEI, with a low conviction replacement of Zijin Mining, which turned out to be an add of China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)
  • No changes to the main HSI Index, which means evolution is further delayed. Today was the day to recap the caps. Mar1 Flow estimates are included below for all three.

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

By Brian Freitas


[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, BUY, TP US$146)TP Change]: The Commercialization Path of AI Is Becoming Clear

By Ying Pan

  • We expect Baidu to report C4Q23 revenue, GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income inline, (2.3%) and (4.5%) vs. consensus.
  • The slight bottom-line miss was mainly attribute to the increased marketing costs related to user acquisition. Baidu cloud revenue is robust due to AI product stimulating demand. 
  • We cut our target price to US$146 for the spendings related to the construction of future e-commerce business but maintain BUY for its cheap valuation.

Cathay Pacific – Reported Air China Interest Prompts Assessment of Structural Disadvantages

By Neil Glynn

  • We publish a deep dive on historical margin management at Cathay Pacific following Bloomberg reports that Air China is considering raising its 29.99% stake.
  • We see Cathay’s consistent underperformance of the global industry as due to structural disadvantages competing against lower cost competitors without the benefit of attractive joint ventures or M&A.
  • Our deep dive comparing margin generation to ten major global peers highlights weak pricing power without sufficient offset from staff cost/other cost efficiencies as the key problem.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$41) TP Change]: Weak Earnings Could Be Temporary…Reiterate BUY

By Eric Wen

  • Luckin Coffee reported 4Q23 revenue/non-GAAP NI in-line/(39.8%) vs. our estimate due to (1) extra winter subsidies; (2) rental cost from new stores; (3) more operating expenditures.
  • We view the non-GAAP NPM decline to 5.1% in 4Q23 as temporary and outlook for sequential improvements in 1H24 from (1)ASP rebound from easing competition, (2)efficiency improvement in rental cost
  • We think Luckin’s profitability outlook is intact and maintain BUY rating, but lower TP by US$2 to US$41 to factor in the rising cost.

Air China (753 HK): Up Stakes in CX?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Speculations on Air China Ltd (753 HK) seeking control of Cathay Pacific (293 HK) reappeared recently. We think a change in CX’s ownership is just a matter of time.
  • CX has been a more important profit contributor to Air China after the pandemic, and depends on pricing, Air China is expected to benefit from such acquisition.
  • Both are trading on 0.5SD below their 5-year P/B average and we prefer CX in the short term, but Air China looks to be a better long-term choice. 

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Pre-IPO Xunfei Healthcare Technology – Continuous Losses Will Be the Norm

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • In healthcare AI industry, the commercialization process is complex and burdened with challenges. Related products mainly plays an auxiliary role in medical scenarios, rather than a core support or rigid-demand. 
  • The idea of creating corresponding solutions for C-end and B-end customers by FUNFEI is not inappropriate. However, both B-end and C-end businesses of FUNFEI have encountered varying degrees of problems.
  • We’re not optimistic about XUNFEI’s profitability. The sluggish stock price performance after Airdoc’s listing indicates that the market/investors have not fully recognized healthcare AI enterprises, leading to low valuation.

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Most Read: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Tsuruha Holdings, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd, Rakuten Bank , Alibaba (ADR), Alumina Ltd, Toei Animation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Rail (9009) – A BUYBACK! But It’s Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3
  • Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) – Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger?
  • Details of Korea Value-Up Initiatives & Index, Announced This Morning
  • STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected
  • Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Introduces a Yutai Program to Goose the Mar24 Price, Mar25 EPS
  • Alibaba (9988 HK):  Value Proposition Looks Clean
  • Alcoa (AA US) Makes an Offer for Alumina (AWC AU)
  • Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Aeon, Welcia and Tsuruha: Creating an FMCG Behemoth
  • StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback


Keisei Electric Rail (9009) – A BUYBACK! But It’s Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

By Travis Lundy

  • Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has long been the target of activist-ish-y holders who seek to have the company monetise its 20+% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP)
  • Last autumn (17-Oct-2023), Keisei was the subject of a presentation by activist-ish-y fund Palliser Capital who called the stock 43% undervalued. They want Keisei to sell some OLC shares.
  • Palliser wanted Keisei to use resulting monies for growth capex+shareholder return, improve IR/governance, shrink board, adopt KPIs, etc. Thursday we got an announcement of a 2.9% stock buyback. 

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) – Aeon Tsuruha Stake Buy Followed by Merger?

By Travis Lundy

  • Over the weekend there was an article in the Nikkei saying that Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) were considering a merger. Other media outlets followed.
  • This has been a possible outcome. Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) owns 51% of Welcia, 13.6% in Tsuruha, and is negotiating to buy another 13% in Tsuruha from Oasis.
  • This would create a behemoth. ¥2.2trln in revenues vs ¥1trln for MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP). It would be 25% of the market. Questions will be asked about concentration. 

Details of Korea Value-Up Initiatives & Index, Announced This Morning

By Sanghyun Park

  • The rollout of the Korea Value-Up Index has encountered a minor delay. Completion of the index is slated for 3Q, with ETFs scheduled for release in 4Q.
  • The government will encourage the National Pension Service to utilize it as a benchmark.
  • Dividend payout ratio, dividend yield, PER, and cash flow will be included as screening factors for this index, in addition to the already known factors of PBR and ROE.

STAR100 Index Rebalance: Ten Changes a Side; Adds Outperforming as Expected

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 10 changes for the STAR100 Index in March. We correctly forecast all 10 deletes and got 8 of the 10 adds right.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 6.8% and that results in a one-way trade of CNY 1.79bn. Nearly all constituent changes have more than 1 day of ADV to trade.
  • The adds have started to outperform the deletes and the index over the last couple of weeks and there could be more outperformance in the next two weeks.

Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) – Introduces a Yutai Program to Goose the Mar24 Price, Mar25 EPS

By Travis Lundy

  • The Rakuten Bank offering in early December was a great time to buy the dip of you sold end-September. It should have been a good time to buy outright.
  • Unfortunately, the stock priced at ¥2,470, then closed that day at ¥2,500. That was the high for the next ten weeks. Two weeks later it was 20% lower. Ouch.
  • But it climbed out of the abyss, gained 35% in 8wks, then Thursday the Bank announced a new Shareholder Benefit program. Today the stock was +7%. Worth looking at details.

Alibaba (9988 HK):  Value Proposition Looks Clean

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • It is well-known that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is cheap (9x FY24 PE, fiscal year ending March; 8x FY23 free cash flow; net cash 25% of market cap).
  • Taking into account all of the major moving parts, I believe Alibaba can now be categorized as a good value stock. 
  • Shareholder returns through buyback and dividend, minus stock-based compensation in 2023 calendar year equal to around 5% yield.

Alcoa (AA US) Makes an Offer for Alumina (AWC AU)

By Brian Freitas

  • Alcoa (AA US) has made a non-binding, indicative and conditional proposal to acquire all shares in Alumina (AWC AU). Shareholders will receive 0.02854 shares of Alcoa for each Alumina share. 
  • Alcoa (AA US) has entered into an agreement with Allan Gray Australia that gives them the right to acquire 19.9% of Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) at the same swap ratio.
  • Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) is a potential delete from the ASX100 Index at the March rebalance and that could provide an entry into the stock.

Toei Animation (4816 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$550 million secondary placement announcement, Toei Animation (4816 JP)’s shares are down 7.0% from the undisturbed price of JPY18,560 per share (14 February).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Toei Animation’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 27 February. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Aeon, Welcia and Tsuruha: Creating an FMCG Behemoth

By Michael Causton

  • The possible merger between Welcia and Tsuruha under Aeon has been talked about for years despite concerns from both drugstores, but may now happen.
  • But calling these retailers drugstores is increasingly a misnomer: FMCG-drugstores is better because they and many others in the sector, increasingly compete with FMCG retailers like supermarkets and even CVS.
  • This evolution is rapid so the merits of a deal make more sense when we view it from a sector five years in the future than how it is today.

StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keisei Electric (9009 JP) has been an outperformer since activist fund Palliser Capital called on the company sell some Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares. It has now announced another buyback.
  • Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

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