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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Ramelius Resources, Splitit Ltd, Tesserent Ltd, Vection Technologies Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed
  • Splitit Pursues Split From The ASX
  • Tesserent (TNT AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September
  • Vection Technologies – Delivering on ambitious targets


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

By Brian Freitas

  • We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
  • The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.
  • There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.

Splitit Pursues Split From The ASX

By David Blennerhassett

  • Splitit Ltd (SPT AU) will seek approval from shareholders to delist the Buy Now, Pay Later micro-play from the ASX and redomicile to the Cayman Islands.
  • Concurrent with the voluntary delisting proposal, PE outfit Motive Partners will pump in US$50mn in exchange for preference shares – assuming the delisting occurs and certain earnings targets are met. 
  • This is not an Offer for shares. If delisted, Splitit shareholders will hold scrip in an unlisted private vehicle. 

Tesserent (TNT AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September

By Arun George

  • Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU)‘s IE considers Thales SA (HO FP)’s A$0.13 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its valuation range of A$0.098 to A$0.109 per share. 
  • The offer is subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. New Zealand’s OIO approval suggests that Australia’s FIRB approval should be forthcoming. Pearson’s recent selldown lowers the vote risk.
  • At the last close price and for the 4 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 4.0% and 32.0%, respectively.

Vection Technologies – Delivering on ambitious targets

By Edison Investment Research

Vection Technologies reported rapid contract growth in its Q423 update, driven by upsells, new contract wins and progress with its potential A$30m defence tender. The ability to integrate AI software, like ChatGPT, and Apple’s entry into the market underpins the rising commercial value of extended reality software. This is translating into increased demand across a range of verticals, where management is aiming to solidify its market position through M&A, alongside developments to its IntegratedXR product suite. Higher investment could impact FY23 profitability but the group’s plan to build operating leverage should support FY24 margins.


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Daily Brief Credit: Continuum Green Energy – New Issue Snapshot – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Continuum Green Energy – New Issue Snapshot – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China


Continuum Green Energy – New Issue Snapshot – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Continuum Green Energy has launched a roadshow to market USD 144A/RegS 3.5NC1.5 green bonds. The expected size is USD 450 mn. The proceeds are earmarked for: [1] refinancing the issuer’s outstanding USD 400 mn 2026 notes; [2] paying the first coupon of the proposed notes and transaction costs: and [3] capex for eligible green projects. The expected ratings on the notes and issuer are B+ (positive) by S&P and Fitch.

We view Continuum as “Medium Risk” on our LARA Scale. We like the company’s: [1] high exposure in healthier commercial & industrial customers with almost no receivables; [2] diversified customer portfolio; and [3] long-term PPA being benchmarked to various industrial tariffs. On the flip side, the credit is constrained by higher leverage compared to peers and has smaller scale. Our Credit Bias is “Positive”, considering the 1 GW of new capacity scheduled to be commissioned later this calendar year.

We believe the COGREN 27 should be priced to yield c. 8.5-8.75%.


Morning Views Asia: Greentown China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Sea Ltd: Share Price Approaching Its Rightful Destination and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd: Share Price Approaching Its Rightful Destination
  • [Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$35) Target Price Change]: Long-Term Headwinds Amid Upsides in 3Q
  • VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation
  • RECL – Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield
  • Alibaba’s DingTalk to Split From Cloud Division and Seek Own IPO, Source Says
  • Tencent (700 HK): 2Q23, Ad and FinTech Recovering, Margin Higher, Buy
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Striking a New Balance
  • Tencent: Earnings Miss, Cost Controls Help Margins; Slowdown in Domestic Gaming Is Concerning
  • Intel Terminates Tower Semi Deal
  • Omron (6645) | Long-Term View Unchanged but Bumpy Ride


Sea Ltd: Share Price Approaching Its Rightful Destination

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • While our outlook for Sea (SE US)‘s 2Q23 was bearish, we didn’t anticipate such a substantial price reaction post-earnings, considering the existing low consensus.
  • However, the market appears to have given more importance to the revenue miss and the deterioration of fundamentals in e-commerce, as indicated by the post-earnings price reaction of -28.7%.
  • Shopee’s modest profitability, restrained growth fail to warrant an EV surpassing $7.0bn. The Gaming business is best valued around $3.0bn, while the Fintech arm should be valued at around $5.0bn.

[Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$35) Target Price Change]: Long-Term Headwinds Amid Upsides in 3Q

By Shawn Yang

  • Sea reported CY2Q23 top-line that missed consensus by 3.4%, while non-GAAP net income beat  by 16%. Sea guided for the net margin to turn negative again in future quarters.
  • We see deterioration of Sea’s competitive landscape as a long-term trend, hence we cut TP to US$35. The next swing factor is Temu’s ASEAN launch.
  • Yet, we need to remind investors that Sea’s 3Q earning might have some upside, including user growth of Shopee, as well as stabilization of gaming metrics.

VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation

By Arun George

  • VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade. 
  • The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder’s 99.0% stake. 
  • VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  

RECL – Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Recently awarded “Maharatna” status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this
  • Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics
  • Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers

Alibaba’s DingTalk to Split From Cloud Division and Seek Own IPO, Source Says

By Caixin Global

  • Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s workplace collaboration platform DingTalk will split from the company’s cloud division and pursue its own IPO, a source familiar with the matter told Caixin, as the tech giant ramps up efforts to unlock growth following its major restructuring.
  • DingTalk’s separation is expected to be completed before the Alibaba cloud unit’s own IPO, the source close to the e-commerce firm said.
  • Alibaba announced in May that it would spin off its Cloud Intelligence Group via a stock dividend distribution to its shareholders over the next year with an eventual listing.

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q23, Ad and FinTech Recovering, Margin Higher, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • In 2Q23, online advertising and FinTech revenues continued to grow rapidly.
  • Game revenue was slow, but two existing games were still at the top of the game market.
  • The operating margin improve significantly, benefiting from the layoff last year.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Striking a New Balance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) released results for 2Q2023, which reflected a slower growth environment exacerbated by lower incentive spend but some significant progress towards its profitability goals for 2023.
  • The company continues to focus on maintaining high-quality users but with an increasing focus on more affordable offerings to expand its demographic reach with the potential to double its users.
  • GoTo is undergoing a full assessment across all divisions, with a focus on improving synergies, with new strategies for growth to be revealed next quarter.

Tencent: Earnings Miss, Cost Controls Help Margins; Slowdown in Domestic Gaming Is Concerning

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q2023 results today. Revenue grew 11.3% YoY to RMB149.2bn (vs consensus RMB151.1bn) while reported OP increased 34% YoY to RMB40.3bn (vs consensus RMB44.6bn).
  • Rapid growth in ad business, video account monetisation and cost controls have contributed to Tencent’s 2Q2023 earnings despite domestic gaming business has slowed down.
  • Though Tencent’s 2Q2023 results show a recovery in earnings, we would interpret the company’s earnings with caution given the slowdown in domestic gaming and social networks businesses.

Intel Terminates Tower Semi Deal

By William Keating

  • Tower to collect a cool $353 million termination fee from Intel
  • Intel claims its foundry ambition to become the global #2 by end of the decade remains unchanged
  • The key thing Intel needed from Tower was access to its broad, diverse portfolio of specialty process technologies. These will take Intel years to develop on their own.  

Omron (6645) | Long-Term View Unchanged but Bumpy Ride

By Mark Chadwick

  • Omron’s stock price has collapsed 20% after missing Q1 earnings estimates. 
  • The recovery in demand has been pushed back – the company may cut its full year guidance at the interim stage
  • On near-term earnings, the stock is around fair value. There is +20% upside for longer-term investors based on our DCF 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed
  • Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP): Open House’s JPY2,025 Tender Offer
  • Splitit Pursues Split From The ASX
  • Tesserent (TNT AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 22: 5 Changes for SSE50 and 18 Changes for SSE180
  • Addressing Misconceptions: Lotte Tour’s Short-Selling Entry Point
  • APAC WEEKLY Monitor: Current MRM Supports and Probabilities Re-Cap


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

By Brian Freitas

  • We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
  • The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.
  • There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.

Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP): Open House’s JPY2,025 Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Sanei Architecture Planning (3228 JP) has recommended Open House (3288 JP)’s tender offer of JPY2,025 per share, an 18.0% premium to the undisturbed price (15 August).
  • The transaction is required to facilitate the exit of Mr Koike, the largest shareholder, and satisfy Article 27 of the Tokyo Metropolitan Organized Crime Exclusion Ordinance.
  • Irrevocables represent a 64.21% ownership ratio, and the lower limit requires a 6.9% minority acceptance rate. The offer is a reasonable solution to the current predicament. 

Splitit Pursues Split From The ASX

By David Blennerhassett

  • Splitit Ltd (SPT AU) will seek approval from shareholders to delist the Buy Now, Pay Later micro-play from the ASX and redomicile to the Cayman Islands.
  • Concurrent with the voluntary delisting proposal, PE outfit Motive Partners will pump in US$50mn in exchange for preference shares – assuming the delisting occurs and certain earnings targets are met. 
  • This is not an Offer for shares. If delisted, Splitit shareholders will hold scrip in an unlisted private vehicle. 

Tesserent (TNT AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September

By Arun George

  • Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU)‘s IE considers Thales SA (HO FP)’s A$0.13 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its valuation range of A$0.098 to A$0.109 per share. 
  • The offer is subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. New Zealand’s OIO approval suggests that Australia’s FIRB approval should be forthcoming. Pearson’s recent selldown lowers the vote risk.
  • At the last close price and for the 4 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 4.0% and 32.0%, respectively.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 22: 5 Changes for SSE50 and 18 Changes for SSE180

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange. 
  • Earlier this month, I discussed the historical price and volume performance of SSE 50 and SSE 180 Rebalance events in Quiddity Primer for SSE 50/180/380 Index Rebalance Events
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the December 2023 Rebalance event.

Addressing Misconceptions: Lotte Tour’s Short-Selling Entry Point

By Sanghyun Park

  • Lotte Tour has emerged as a prominent short-selling target in the Korean market, and there are efforts to use an ₩80B convertible bond (CB) to exploit its dilution/overhang risk.
  • Linden Capital and LMR, upon obtaining the CB, promptly borrowed 4.6M shares from Donghwa for short selling. Thus, the CB conversion incentive remains largely unaffected by stock price changes.
  • We should avoid synchronizing our entry point with CB conversion. Instead, we should target the likely rights issuance in the latter half of the year, anticipated in the market.

APAC WEEKLY Monitor: Current MRM Supports and Probabilities Re-Cap

By Nico Rosti

  • All the APAC markets we cover (Nifty50, HSI, Nikkei225, Kospi200, S&P/ASX200) are pulling back and some of them have been doing so for 3 weeks.
  • In this insight we want to offer a re-cap of all the MRM support levels and probabilities for the APAC markets above, after the August 16th Close.
  • Check our previously published single-market insights for deeper analysis and related investment ideas: Nifty50, HSI, Nikkei225, Kospi200, S&P/ASX200.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Sea , Mirxes Holding, Continuum Green Energy, Procurri Corporation, Marco Polo Marine, Blue Planet, Baskit and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd: Share Price Approaching Its Rightful Destination
  • [Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$35) Target Price Change]: Long-Term Headwinds Amid Upsides in 3Q
  • Pre-IPO Mirxes Holding Company – The Profit Model in the Post Pandemic Era Needs to Be Verified
  • Continuum Green Energy – New Issue Snapshot – Lucror Analytics
  • kopi-C with Procurri’s CEO: “It’s about every one of us doing a little for sustainability”
  • 10 in 10 with Marco Polo Marine – Voyage into a sustainable future
  • Singapore’s Waste Management Firm Blue Planet Gets Bintang Capital’s Backing
  • Baskit Raises US$3.3M in Seed Funding to Empower Indonesia’s Distribution Infrastructure


Sea Ltd: Share Price Approaching Its Rightful Destination

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • While our outlook for Sea (SE US)‘s 2Q23 was bearish, we didn’t anticipate such a substantial price reaction post-earnings, considering the existing low consensus.
  • However, the market appears to have given more importance to the revenue miss and the deterioration of fundamentals in e-commerce, as indicated by the post-earnings price reaction of -28.7%.
  • Shopee’s modest profitability, restrained growth fail to warrant an EV surpassing $7.0bn. The Gaming business is best valued around $3.0bn, while the Fintech arm should be valued at around $5.0bn.

[Sea Limited (SE US, SELL, TP US$35) Target Price Change]: Long-Term Headwinds Amid Upsides in 3Q

By Shawn Yang

  • Sea reported CY2Q23 top-line that missed consensus by 3.4%, while non-GAAP net income beat  by 16%. Sea guided for the net margin to turn negative again in future quarters.
  • We see deterioration of Sea’s competitive landscape as a long-term trend, hence we cut TP to US$35. The next swing factor is Temu’s ASEAN launch.
  • Yet, we need to remind investors that Sea’s 3Q earning might have some upside, including user growth of Shopee, as well as stabilization of gaming metrics.

Pre-IPO Mirxes Holding Company – The Profit Model in the Post Pandemic Era Needs to Be Verified

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Although Mirxes has already commercialized its products, its total revenue fluctuated greatly. When the market demand for COVID-19 testing kits sharply declined, the Company’s financial position deteriorated immediately.
  • With the highest incidence rate of gastric cancer worldwide, PRC market is important to Mirxes. How to gain recognition from doctors and enter hospital market is a challenge for GASTROClear.
  • Mirxes is facing survival problem and eager for an IPO. Before Mirxes establishes a clear/visible path to commercialization and a successful profit model in post-COVID era, we would remain cautious. 

Continuum Green Energy – New Issue Snapshot – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Continuum Green Energy has launched a roadshow to market USD 144A/RegS 3.5NC1.5 green bonds. The expected size is USD 450 mn. The proceeds are earmarked for: [1] refinancing the issuer’s outstanding USD 400 mn 2026 notes; [2] paying the first coupon of the proposed notes and transaction costs: and [3] capex for eligible green projects. The expected ratings on the notes and issuer are B+ (positive) by S&P and Fitch.

We view Continuum as “Medium Risk” on our LARA Scale. We like the company’s: [1] high exposure in healthier commercial & industrial customers with almost no receivables; [2] diversified customer portfolio; and [3] long-term PPA being benchmarked to various industrial tariffs. On the flip side, the credit is constrained by higher leverage compared to peers and has smaller scale. Our Credit Bias is “Positive”, considering the 1 GW of new capacity scheduled to be commissioned later this calendar year.

We believe the COGREN 27 should be priced to yield c. 8.5-8.75%.


kopi-C with Procurri’s CEO: “It’s about every one of us doing a little for sustainability”

By Geoff Howie

  • kopi-C with Procurri’s CEO: “It’s about every one of us doing a little for sustainability” Mat Jordan, Chief Executive Officer at Procurri shares how the company is championing sustainability practices.
  • It’s Procurri’s commitment to eco-friendly business trends, passion for environmental issues and strict sustainability mission that keeps Mat invested.

10 in 10 with Marco Polo Marine – Voyage into a sustainable future

By Geoff Howie

10 in 10 with Marco Polo Marine – Voyage into a sustainable future

Singapore’s Waste Management Firm Blue Planet Gets Bintang Capital’s Backing

By e27

  • Singapore-based waste management company Blue Planet has secured an undisclosed sum in funding from Malaysian PE firm Bintang Capital Partners.
  • The startup will utilise the capital to expand its operational teams and waste management technologies to pave the way for handling a broader range of waste types in current and emerging markets.
  • Founded in 2017 by Madhujeet Chimni, Prashant Singh, and Bharadwaj Chivukula, Blue Planet provides waste collection, transportation, segregation, processing, and treatment services.

Baskit Raises US$3.3M in Seed Funding to Empower Indonesia’s Distribution Infrastructure

By e27

  • Baskit, a startup that focuses on digitalising and growing distribution businesses in Indonesia’s supply chains, today announced that it had raised US$3.3 million in seed funding.
  • The funding round comes from Betatron Venture Group, Forge Ventures, Investible, 1982 Ventures, DS/X Orvel, Michael Sampoerna, and other prominent global and regional angels.
  • It followed a US$1.5 million pre-seed funding round that Baskit announced in March.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Green Cross, Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Green Cross (006280 KS): Turns Profitable in Q2; All Eyes on the Maiden US Approval of Blood Product
  • Addressing Misconceptions: Lotte Tour’s Short-Selling Entry Point


Green Cross (006280 KS): Turns Profitable in Q2; All Eyes on the Maiden US Approval of Blood Product

By Tina Banerjee

  • Green Cross (006280 KS) reported decent Q2 performance, with revenue and operating profit increasing 2% and 81%, YoY, respectively. Vaccine and blood products business remained the major growth drivers.
  • The company has re-submitted marketing application for GC5107, a blood derivative product to the FDA, which has accepted it with a target action date of January 13, 2024.
  • If approved, the company aims to enter the U.S. market in 2H24. Supply shortage amid increasing demand makes the U.S. an attractive market for the company’s blood products.

Addressing Misconceptions: Lotte Tour’s Short-Selling Entry Point

By Sanghyun Park

  • Lotte Tour has emerged as a prominent short-selling target in the Korean market, and there are efforts to use an ₩80B convertible bond (CB) to exploit its dilution/overhang risk.
  • Linden Capital and LMR, upon obtaining the CB, promptly borrowed 4.6M shares from Donghwa for short selling. Thus, the CB conversion incentive remains largely unaffected by stock price changes.
  • We should avoid synchronizing our entry point with CB conversion. Instead, we should target the likely rights issuance in the latter half of the year, anticipated in the market.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Workday Inc Class A, NOW Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel Terminates Tower Semi Deal
  • Workday: The Rough Path Towards Profitability
  • NOW, Inc. – Fulfillment Model to Meet Customers’ Evolving Needs August 16, 2023 Jeff Robertson


Intel Terminates Tower Semi Deal

By William Keating

  • Tower to collect a cool $353 million termination fee from Intel
  • Intel claims its foundry ambition to become the global #2 by end of the decade remains unchanged
  • The key thing Intel needed from Tower was access to its broad, diverse portfolio of specialty process technologies. These will take Intel years to develop on their own.  

Workday: The Rough Path Towards Profitability

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Workday’s share price is at risk of a downward multiple repricing.
  • GAAP profitability would be very hard to achieve, according to recent rhetoric.
  • An outside deal is a highly likely scenario that would resolve the company’s current disadvantage to its larger peers.

NOW, Inc. – Fulfillment Model to Meet Customers’ Evolving Needs August 16, 2023 Jeff Robertson

By Water Tower Research

  • DistributionNOW gained share during 2Q23 as US drilling activity slowed. US revenue per rig averaged ~$631k, up from ~$561k in 1Q23 and ~$570k in 2Q22.

  • Gains reflect the benefits of the company’s fulfillment model, geared to make DistributionNOW the supply chain solution provider of choice for customers by supplying the products they require in the quantities they need by increasing the efficiency of their procurement process, lowering transactions costs, and increasing returns on their investments.

  • 2Q23 total revenue grew 10% Y/Y and 2% from 1Q22 revenue. 


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Daily Brief Indonesia: GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT, Indo Tambangraya Megah, GORO and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Striking a New Balance
  • ITMG Q2 2023 Weak But Stock At 20% Dividend Yield with ~50% of Mkt Cap In Cash
  • Iterative Leads ID Proptech Firm Goro’s $1m Round


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Striking a New Balance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) released results for 2Q2023, which reflected a slower growth environment exacerbated by lower incentive spend but some significant progress towards its profitability goals for 2023.
  • The company continues to focus on maintaining high-quality users but with an increasing focus on more affordable offerings to expand its demographic reach with the potential to double its users.
  • GoTo is undergoing a full assessment across all divisions, with a focus on improving synergies, with new strategies for growth to be revealed next quarter.

ITMG Q2 2023 Weak But Stock At 20% Dividend Yield with ~50% of Mkt Cap In Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) provides investors with fat dividends. We estimate from 2021-2023e, the company will have paid over 20,000 Rph (70% of the current share price) in dividends.
  • Despite these dividend payouts, cash on the balance sheet by the end of FY23e will easily exceed one bn USD or about 50% of the market capitalization.
  • Weak results/degrowth are expected due to unsustainably high coal prices in 2022. Nevertheless, there is a good case for future value as hefty dividends will continue to be paid.

Iterative Leads ID Proptech Firm Goro’s $1m Round

By Tech in Asia

  • Proptech firm Goro is betting on fractional property investments in Indonesia. With its namesake being derived from the Indonesian term Gotong Royong or mutual cooperation, its platform allows users to purchase a fraction of a property starting from US$0.7.
  • Returns come in the form of monthly paid-out rental income and capital gains when the property is sold.
  • Since launching earlier this year, Goro said its user base has grown 15% per week. The company added that its current portfolio, which is picked by professional property managers, is generating 11% net annualized rental yield for its users.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), WuXi XDC Cayman Inc, Tencent, Foxconn Industrial Internet, Lianlian DigiTech, SITC International, Tencent Music, Greentown China and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba’s DingTalk to Split From Cloud Division and Seek Own IPO, Source Says
  • WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO – The Positives – Sales Have Surged Leading to Market Share Gains
  • Tencent (700 HK): 2Q23, Ad and FinTech Recovering, Margin Higher, Buy
  • Tencent: Earnings Miss, Cost Controls Help Margins; Slowdown in Domestic Gaming Is Concerning
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 22: 5 Changes for SSE50 and 18 Changes for SSE180
  • LianLian Digitech Pre-IPO – Declining Profitability with No End in Sight Just Yet
  • SITC International (1308 HK): Uneasy Times
  • [Tencent Music (TME US, SELL, TP US$5.7) TP Change]: Competition Remains the Biggest Downward Factor
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China


Alibaba’s DingTalk to Split From Cloud Division and Seek Own IPO, Source Says

By Caixin Global

  • Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s workplace collaboration platform DingTalk will split from the company’s cloud division and pursue its own IPO, a source familiar with the matter told Caixin, as the tech giant ramps up efforts to unlock growth following its major restructuring.
  • DingTalk’s separation is expected to be completed before the Alibaba cloud unit’s own IPO, the source close to the e-commerce firm said.
  • Alibaba announced in May that it would spin off its Cloud Intelligence Group via a stock dividend distribution to its shareholders over the next year with an eventual listing.

WuXi XDC Cayman Pre-IPO – The Positives – Sales Have Surged Leading to Market Share Gains

By Clarence Chu

  • WuXi XDC Cayman Inc (1877628D HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a CRDMO focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q23, Ad and FinTech Recovering, Margin Higher, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • In 2Q23, online advertising and FinTech revenues continued to grow rapidly.
  • Game revenue was slow, but two existing games were still at the top of the game market.
  • The operating margin improve significantly, benefiting from the layoff last year.

Tencent: Earnings Miss, Cost Controls Help Margins; Slowdown in Domestic Gaming Is Concerning

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Tencent (700 HK) reported 2Q2023 results today. Revenue grew 11.3% YoY to RMB149.2bn (vs consensus RMB151.1bn) while reported OP increased 34% YoY to RMB40.3bn (vs consensus RMB44.6bn).
  • Rapid growth in ad business, video account monetisation and cost controls have contributed to Tencent’s 2Q2023 earnings despite domestic gaming business has slowed down.
  • Though Tencent’s 2Q2023 results show a recovery in earnings, we would interpret the company’s earnings with caution given the slowdown in domestic gaming and social networks businesses.

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 22: 5 Changes for SSE50 and 18 Changes for SSE180

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • SSE 50 and SSE180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange. 
  • Earlier this month, I discussed the historical price and volume performance of SSE 50 and SSE 180 Rebalance events in Quiddity Primer for SSE 50/180/380 Index Rebalance Events
  • In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential index changes for SSE 50 and SSE 180 during the December 2023 Rebalance event.

LianLian Digitech Pre-IPO – Declining Profitability with No End in Sight Just Yet

By Ethan Aw

  • Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • LianLian DigiTech is a digital technology company that provides a range of digital payment services and value-added services to customers in China and around the world.
  • Lianlian’s digital payments segment has historically been its largest revenue contributor. However, profitability has been declining on the back of lower gross margins and mounting losses from its Liantong JV.

SITC International (1308 HK): Uneasy Times

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While management of SITC International (1308 HK) thinks that the worst is over, we are less positive given the lacklustre demand and the disappointing Jul-Aug market freight rates.
  • Its gross margin is still significantly ahead of the pre-COVID levels, and financially, its net cash balance has been coming down. The dividend payout ratio has also lowered slightly.
  • The FY23 consensus earnings forecast is too optimistic given 1H23 net profit is only 33.5% of the full-year estimate. The downside risk will cap near-term share price performance. 

[Tencent Music (TME US, SELL, TP US$5.7) TP Change]: Competition Remains the Biggest Downward Factor

By Shawn Yang

  • TME reported in-line results with continued divergence in its two major businesses: Online music increased by 48% YoY, while social entertainment declined by 25% YoY.
  • We expect these trends to continue, with online music benefiting from price increases and social entertainment facing ongoing challenges from competition, regulations, and macro influences.
  • Recently, Douyin has been advancing the integration of its large entertainment division. We anticipate that this will pose pressure on TME. Remain SELL and cut TP to US$ 5.7.

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Nsdl, Rural Electrification, Credgenics, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • NSDL Pre-IPO – The Positives – Dominant Position, Strong Revenue Growth
  • RECL – Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield
  • India-Based Credgenics Banks $50m to Simplify Debt Resolution
  • APAC WEEKLY Monitor: Current MRM Supports and Probabilities Re-Cap
  • NSDL Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Margins Could Drag


NSDL Pre-IPO – The Positives – Dominant Position, Strong Revenue Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
  • It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

RECL – Near Insatiable Power Credit Demand, Great NPL Trend, New Maharatna Status, 3x Avg Div Yield

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Recently awarded “Maharatna” status, only 12 companies, FY24 is first full year for this
  • Growth is steady, with good returns, and major improvement in credit metrics
  • Its 4.77% dividend yield is incredibly high and about 3x higher than peers

India-Based Credgenics Banks $50m to Simplify Debt Resolution

By Tech in Asia

  • India-based Credgenics, a loan collection services firm, has raised US$50 million in its series B funding round led by Accel and WestBridge Capital.
  • It will use the new capital to diversify its offerings and reach other client segments. Credgenics also looks to expand its international business.
  • The company’s geographical expansion will primarily focus on countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam, which share similarities with India’s credit market.

APAC WEEKLY Monitor: Current MRM Supports and Probabilities Re-Cap

By Nico Rosti

  • All the APAC markets we cover (Nifty50, HSI, Nikkei225, Kospi200, S&P/ASX200) are pulling back and some of them have been doing so for 3 weeks.
  • In this insight we want to offer a re-cap of all the MRM support levels and probabilities for the APAC markets above, after the August 16th Close.
  • Check our previously published single-market insights for deeper analysis and related investment ideas: Nifty50, HSI, Nikkei225, Kospi200, S&P/ASX200.

NSDL Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Margins Could Drag

By Sumeet Singh

  • National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
  • It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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