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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Ventia Services Group Pty and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Ventia Services Group Placement – Well Flagged and All past Deals Have Done Well


Ventia Services Group Placement – Well Flagged and All past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ventia Services Group Pty (VNT AU) (VSG)’s two largest shareholders, Apollo Global Management and CIMIC Group, aim to raise around US$214m via selling 14% of the company.
  • The two largest shareholders together owned nearly 30% of the company and have pared their stake twice this year.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

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Daily Brief Financials: Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Agile Property Holdings, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank of Ningbo – Doubtful Loans +59%, Loss Loans +38%, Impairment Costs -16%, With Falling LLR/Loans
  • Seazen Group – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 01 Sep 2023
  • R&F Properties Outlines Looming Debt Crisis
  • Country Garden – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics


Bank of Ningbo – Doubtful Loans +59%, Loss Loans +38%, Impairment Costs -16%, With Falling LLR/Loans

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Despite worsening doubtful, loss loans, the bank opted to lower impairment costs in 2Q23 YoY
  • There is almost no profit growth without the bank’s provision cost decline, in 1H23 and 2Q23
  • Loans more than doubled since FY19, but against this LLR/loans continues to decline

Seazen Group – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Seazen’s H1/23 results were in line with expectations, with sustained weakness in contracted sales and revenue, along with weaker margins. The group generated CNY 4.7 bn of investment property income in H1/23 (+10% y-o-y), with a gross margin of 70% (H1/22: 72%). We note positively the growing recurring revenue. The annual gross profit of c. CNY 7 bn now covers interest expense of c. CNY 6.3 bn.

Seazen’s liquidity will be tested by homebuyers’ growing concerns over private developers’ ability to complete properties. This has been exacerbated by lenders’ reluctance to roll over debt. In this regard, we note that the regulatory authorities committed to improve funding access for private firms in late August 2023.

We revise our trade recommendation to “Hold” on the FUTLAN 6 24 and “Not Recommended” on the remaining FUTLAN/FTLNHD notes, from “Hold”.


Weekly Wrap – 01 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Health And Happiness (H&H)
  4. Xiaomi Corp
  5. Anton Oilfield

and more…


R&F Properties Outlines Looming Debt Crisis

By Caixin Global

  • Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. Ltd. has 48.1 billion yuan ($6.6 billion) of debt due within a year with less than 10 billion yuan on hand as of the end of June, the southern China property developer disclosed.
  • Even though R&F extended some debt last year, its first-half financial report showed that it is still mired in a liquidity crisis. R&F Properties delayed payment of 46.7 billion yuan of domestic and offshore bonds in 2022 for three to four years.
  • The developer reported a net first-half loss of 5.1 billion yuan, 26% narrower than a year ago.

Country Garden – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Country Garden’s H1/23 results were weak, as expected, and we believe there is a high chance that the company will default. Country Garden also warned in the interim results report about uncertainties associated with its ability to continue as a going concern.

Consistent weakness in contracted sales and deteriorating profitability (both rooted in Country Garden’s significant exposure to lower-tier cities) will likely lead to further liquidity pressure for the developer going forward. We do not foresee a near-term turnaround in profitability, given weak home-buyer sentiment in China and the fact that a majority (>80%) of Country Garden’s land bank is in lower-tier cities. In H1/23, the company recorded a gross loss of CNY 24.3 bn (H1/22: CNY 17.2 bn gross profit) and CNY 45.4 bn in core net loss attributable to owners (FYE 2022: CNY 4.91 bn core net profit).

We believe default risk remains high, even if Country Garden manages to extend the payment deadline for the CNY 3.9 bn (USD 535 mn onshore bonds). The company reported CNY 258 bn of interest-bearing debt as at end-June 2023, of which 42% (CNY 109 bn) will become payable within 12 months. This compared to CNY 101 bn in cash and equivalents, as well as CNY 29.5 bn in restricted cash reported at end-June. External funding access appears very limited, especially considering the deteriorating value of assets that could be used as collateral.

In the event of a default, we believe offshore bondholders will have very limited access to property assets on account of structural and effective subordination. All of the company’s offshore USD notes are trading at distressed levels, pricing at only c. 7-12. We maintain our “Not Recommended” view on the COGARD notes.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Vinfast, ENM Holdings, China Mengniu Dairy Co, Culp Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive
  • ENM Holdings (128 HK): A Wide Spread with the Scheme Vote on 26 September
  • Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK):  Solid Value Play
  • Culp, Inc. – Revising Estimates to Reflect Continued Demand Weakness and Margin Improvement
  • Better than Zero? But Limitations of One Female Board Member to Influence Board Decision-Making


Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Vietnamese automaker Vinfast (VFS US) made its public debut on 15th August via a SPAC deal which valued the company approx. US$23bn.
  • Shares opened US$22 per share and went up to $37.06 at the end of first-day. Share price hit a peak of $82.35, however, shares closed last at $34.71 per share.
  • Our forecasts and valuation for Vinfast suggest that the company’s shares are still overvalued even after falling more than 50% from its peak over the last few days.

ENM Holdings (128 HK): A Wide Spread with the Scheme Vote on 26 September

By Arun George

  • ENM Holdings (128 HK)‘s scheme document is out, with the vote scheduled for 26 September. The IFA considers Chime Corporation’s HK$0.58 per share offer fair and reasonable.
  • The spread of 7.4% reflects vote risk – cash required for the proposal is lower than the net cash, and the offer price is below the IFA’s SoTP valuation (HK$0.658). 
  • Shareholder approval of the scheme is aided by no shareholder holding a blocking stake, a low AGM minority participation rate and no visible retail opposition to the offer. 

Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK):  Solid Value Play

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) is a good pick for those seeking value in the China consumer sector. 
  • The company currently trades at 15x 2024E PE, compared to over 20x forward PE in the last 5 years, as the industry growth stagnated. 
  • We can still expect above 10% net profit growth over the next three years, with the company looking to return more cash to shareholders. 

Culp, Inc. – Revising Estimates to Reflect Continued Demand Weakness and Margin Improvement

By Water Tower Research

  • Herein we revise our estimates for Culp, which reported 1QFY24 results and issued guidance in the face of continued weak demand juxtaposed against improving and better-than-expected margins.
  • Gross margin for CHF, Culp’s mattress fabrics segment, is recovering faster than expected (up ~700 bps in 1QFY24 versus 1QFY23).
  • For CUF, Culp’s upholstery fabrics segment, management grew 1QFY24 gross margin by 667 bps despite a significantly down Y/Y sales comparison (~ -17.4%).

Better than Zero? But Limitations of One Female Board Member to Influence Board Decision-Making

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s debatable whether to view the gradual increase in the percentage of female executives as a positive or a negative that it is so much lower than in other countries.
  • This issue should be considered from the shareholder’s perspective, and the ratio of female board members should be increased if it is considered positive for the company’s management.
  • While there are many things that companies should do to increase the ratio of female managers, there are also significant issues that society as a whole needs to address.

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Daily Brief Health Care: LianBio and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • LianBio (LIAN US): Lead Asset Is Approaching Commercialization; Satisfactory Cash Runway


LianBio (LIAN US): Lead Asset Is Approaching Commercialization; Satisfactory Cash Runway

By Tina Banerjee

  • LianBio (LIAN US)‘s new drug application for its lead asset mavacamten is under priority review in China for the treatment of symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, with approval expected in mid-2024.  
  • The company is expected to start commercialize mavacamten in Singapore and Macau this year. As of June 30, 2023, LianBio has cash balance of $267M, with runway into H1 2025.
  • LianBio is currently conducting phase 3 trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of TP-03 in Chinese adult patients with Demodex blepharitis. Topline data is expected in 4Q23.

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  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Ventia Services Group Pty and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ventia Services Group Placement – Well Flagged and All past Deals Have Done Well


Ventia Services Group Placement – Well Flagged and All past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ventia Services Group Pty (VNT AU) (VSG)’s two largest shareholders, Apollo Global Management and CIMIC Group, aim to raise around US$214m via selling 14% of the company.
  • The two largest shareholders together owned nearly 30% of the company and have pared their stake twice this year.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Agile Property Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 01 Sep 2023


Weekly Wrap – 01 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Health And Happiness (H&H)
  4. Xiaomi Corp
  5. Anton Oilfield

and more…


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: Nextera Energy, LianBio, Culp Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Next Era Energy: Investments into Clean & Green Energy, and the IRA, to Drive Outperformance
  • LianBio (LIAN US): Lead Asset Is Approaching Commercialization; Satisfactory Cash Runway
  • Culp, Inc. – Revising Estimates to Reflect Continued Demand Weakness and Margin Improvement


Next Era Energy: Investments into Clean & Green Energy, and the IRA, to Drive Outperformance

By Pranay Yadav

  • A 100-year-old firm, Next Era Energy is America’s largest utility firm and the world’s largest renewable energy producer commanding a market cap of USD 136.6B.
  • Significant capex into Next Era Energy Resources combined with the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act to drive stock outperformance.
  • Downside exposure remains from idiosyncratic risks, weather shocks and an economic recovery which warrants risk management considerations.

LianBio (LIAN US): Lead Asset Is Approaching Commercialization; Satisfactory Cash Runway

By Tina Banerjee

  • LianBio (LIAN US)‘s new drug application for its lead asset mavacamten is under priority review in China for the treatment of symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, with approval expected in mid-2024.  
  • The company is expected to start commercialize mavacamten in Singapore and Macau this year. As of June 30, 2023, LianBio has cash balance of $267M, with runway into H1 2025.
  • LianBio is currently conducting phase 3 trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of TP-03 in Chinese adult patients with Demodex blepharitis. Topline data is expected in 4Q23.

Culp, Inc. – Revising Estimates to Reflect Continued Demand Weakness and Margin Improvement

By Water Tower Research

  • Herein we revise our estimates for Culp, which reported 1QFY24 results and issued guidance in the face of continued weak demand juxtaposed against improving and better-than-expected margins.
  • Gross margin for CHF, Culp’s mattress fabrics segment, is recovering faster than expected (up ~700 bps in 1QFY24 versus 1QFY23).
  • For CUF, Culp’s upholstery fabrics segment, management grew 1QFY24 gross margin by 667 bps despite a significantly down Y/Y sales comparison (~ -17.4%).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: ENM Holdings, China Mengniu Dairy Co, Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Agile Property Holdings, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Country Garden Holdings Co and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ENM Holdings (128 HK): A Wide Spread with the Scheme Vote on 26 September
  • Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK):  Solid Value Play
  • Bank of Ningbo – Doubtful Loans +59%, Loss Loans +38%, Impairment Costs -16%, With Falling LLR/Loans
  • Seazen Group – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 01 Sep 2023
  • Weekly Wrap – 01 Sep 2023
  • R&F Properties Outlines Looming Debt Crisis
  • Country Garden – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics


ENM Holdings (128 HK): A Wide Spread with the Scheme Vote on 26 September

By Arun George

  • ENM Holdings (128 HK)‘s scheme document is out, with the vote scheduled for 26 September. The IFA considers Chime Corporation’s HK$0.58 per share offer fair and reasonable.
  • The spread of 7.4% reflects vote risk – cash required for the proposal is lower than the net cash, and the offer price is below the IFA’s SoTP valuation (HK$0.658). 
  • Shareholder approval of the scheme is aided by no shareholder holding a blocking stake, a low AGM minority participation rate and no visible retail opposition to the offer. 

Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK):  Solid Value Play

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) is a good pick for those seeking value in the China consumer sector. 
  • The company currently trades at 15x 2024E PE, compared to over 20x forward PE in the last 5 years, as the industry growth stagnated. 
  • We can still expect above 10% net profit growth over the next three years, with the company looking to return more cash to shareholders. 

Bank of Ningbo – Doubtful Loans +59%, Loss Loans +38%, Impairment Costs -16%, With Falling LLR/Loans

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Despite worsening doubtful, loss loans, the bank opted to lower impairment costs in 2Q23 YoY
  • There is almost no profit growth without the bank’s provision cost decline, in 1H23 and 2Q23
  • Loans more than doubled since FY19, but against this LLR/loans continues to decline

Seazen Group – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Seazen’s H1/23 results were in line with expectations, with sustained weakness in contracted sales and revenue, along with weaker margins. The group generated CNY 4.7 bn of investment property income in H1/23 (+10% y-o-y), with a gross margin of 70% (H1/22: 72%). We note positively the growing recurring revenue. The annual gross profit of c. CNY 7 bn now covers interest expense of c. CNY 6.3 bn.

Seazen’s liquidity will be tested by homebuyers’ growing concerns over private developers’ ability to complete properties. This has been exacerbated by lenders’ reluctance to roll over debt. In this regard, we note that the regulatory authorities committed to improve funding access for private firms in late August 2023.

We revise our trade recommendation to “Hold” on the FUTLAN 6 24 and “Not Recommended” on the remaining FUTLAN/FTLNHD notes, from “Hold”.


Weekly Wrap – 01 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Health And Happiness (H&H)
  4. Xiaomi Corp
  5. Anton Oilfield

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 01 Sep 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Country Garden Holdings Co
  2. Yankuang Energy Group
  3. Health And Happiness (H&H)
  4. Xiaomi Corp
  5. Anton Oilfield

and more…


R&F Properties Outlines Looming Debt Crisis

By Caixin Global

  • Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. Ltd. has 48.1 billion yuan ($6.6 billion) of debt due within a year with less than 10 billion yuan on hand as of the end of June, the southern China property developer disclosed.
  • Even though R&F extended some debt last year, its first-half financial report showed that it is still mired in a liquidity crisis. R&F Properties delayed payment of 46.7 billion yuan of domestic and offshore bonds in 2022 for three to four years.
  • The developer reported a net first-half loss of 5.1 billion yuan, 26% narrower than a year ago.

Country Garden – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

Country Garden’s H1/23 results were weak, as expected, and we believe there is a high chance that the company will default. Country Garden also warned in the interim results report about uncertainties associated with its ability to continue as a going concern.

Consistent weakness in contracted sales and deteriorating profitability (both rooted in Country Garden’s significant exposure to lower-tier cities) will likely lead to further liquidity pressure for the developer going forward. We do not foresee a near-term turnaround in profitability, given weak home-buyer sentiment in China and the fact that a majority (>80%) of Country Garden’s land bank is in lower-tier cities. In H1/23, the company recorded a gross loss of CNY 24.3 bn (H1/22: CNY 17.2 bn gross profit) and CNY 45.4 bn in core net loss attributable to owners (FYE 2022: CNY 4.91 bn core net profit).

We believe default risk remains high, even if Country Garden manages to extend the payment deadline for the CNY 3.9 bn (USD 535 mn onshore bonds). The company reported CNY 258 bn of interest-bearing debt as at end-June 2023, of which 42% (CNY 109 bn) will become payable within 12 months. This compared to CNY 101 bn in cash and equivalents, as well as CNY 29.5 bn in restricted cash reported at end-June. External funding access appears very limited, especially considering the deteriorating value of assets that could be used as collateral.

In the event of a default, we believe offshore bondholders will have very limited access to property assets on account of structural and effective subordination. All of the company’s offshore USD notes are trading at distressed levels, pricing at only c. 7-12. We maintain our “Not Recommended” view on the COGARD notes.


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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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Daily Brief Japan: US Treasury (10 Yr Generic), Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities
  • Better than Zero? But Limitations of One Female Board Member to Influence Board Decision-Making


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

By Joe Jasper

  • In our two previous Int’l Compass reports (Aug. 18 & 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
  • $93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
  • $93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).

Better than Zero? But Limitations of One Female Board Member to Influence Board Decision-Making

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s debatable whether to view the gradual increase in the percentage of female executives as a positive or a negative that it is so much lower than in other countries.
  • This issue should be considered from the shareholder’s perspective, and the ratio of female board members should be increased if it is considered positive for the company’s management.
  • While there are many things that companies should do to increase the ratio of female managers, there are also significant issues that society as a whole needs to address.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: Lake Resources Nl, ZJLD Group , Ventia Services Group Pty , Rakuten Bank , Abacus Group, JB Hi-Fi Ltd, Vinfast, Celltrion Inc, Bank Rakyat Indonesia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go
  • HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect
  • Ventia Services Group US$450m Placement Lockup Expiry – Past Deals Have Done Well
  • Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Abacus Group Could Be Deleted
  • MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Deletes & Capping Increase Turnover
  • Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2023: Celltrion Inc/Healthcare, Itochu Techno, UMW, Boustead, SK Rent
  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Steering Towards Higher Returns
  • Ventia Services Group Placement – Well Flagged and All past Deals Have Done Well


MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: A Week to Go

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes for the next rebalance will use closing prices from 31 August, will be announced after the close on 8 September with implementation at the close on 15 September.
  • One stock is very close to the 85% cumulative market cap inclusion threshold, while there are two stocks that are near the 98% cumulative market cap deletion threshold.
  • With one inclusion and capping changes, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance will be 3.5% resulting in a one-way trade of US$20m. That could change over the next week.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 22 Adds, 27 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 22 adds and 27 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 518.
  • We expect all 22 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 24 of the 27 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
  • Since the end of June, shares held though Southbound Connect have increased on 20 of the 27 HSCI deletions and there could be some unwinding in the next two weeks.

Ventia Services Group US$450m Placement Lockup Expiry – Past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ventia Services Group Pty (VNT AU)’s two largest shareholders, Apollo Global Management and CIMIC Group, will come off their placement linked lockup soon.
  • The two largest shareholders together owned nearly 30% of the company and have pared their stake twice this year.
  • In this note, we will talk about the likely placement and past deal performance.

Rakuten Bank (5838) – 4 Months On, Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks

By Travis Lundy

  • Four months ago, Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) was IPOed too low, then the price went up. It would appear foreign active ownership is relatively high.
  • Rakuten Bank stands out with high ROE and earnings growth. Banks stand out because, well, they’re going up. 
  • Given expected 5yr earnings growth, Rakuten Bank at current price is probably “wrong.” But it has much less “bankness” than most banks, so you have to think about it differently.

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: Abacus Group Could Be Deleted

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be one deletion from the index and a bunch of capping changes.
  • The index changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 3.4% resulting in a one-way trade of A$21m. There are two stocks with over A$5m to trade.
  • Short interest has increased on a few REITs recently while decreasing on most of the other names.

MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Deletes & Capping Increase Turnover

By Brian Freitas


Vinfast: Stock Is in Free Fall; Still Expensive

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Vietnamese automaker Vinfast (VFS US) made its public debut on 15th August via a SPAC deal which valued the company approx. US$23bn.
  • Shares opened US$22 per share and went up to $37.06 at the end of first-day. Share price hit a peak of $82.35, however, shares closed last at $34.71 per share.
  • Our forecasts and valuation for Vinfast suggest that the company’s shares are still overvalued even after falling more than 50% from its peak over the last few days.

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Aug 2023: Celltrion Inc/Healthcare, Itochu Techno, UMW, Boustead, SK Rent

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of August 2023, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$29bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in August was 25%. The average YTD is 34%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) – Steering Towards Higher Returns

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) continues to be the key and unique proxy for micro and ultra-micro lending in Indonesia, with 1H2023 reflecting its increasingly strategic positioning in the space.
  • Microloans now account for 48% of loans and of this higher-yielding Kupedes microloans make up an increasingly larger portion, as it diversifies its KUR exposure. 
  • The bank is set to see improving returns in 2H2023, with loan growth expected to pick-up and NIMs should also improve. 2.6x PBV with an ROE of 20.0% is attractive.

Ventia Services Group Placement – Well Flagged and All past Deals Have Done Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ventia Services Group Pty (VNT AU) (VSG)’s two largest shareholders, Apollo Global Management and CIMIC Group, aim to raise around US$214m via selling 14% of the company.
  • The two largest shareholders together owned nearly 30% of the company and have pared their stake twice this year.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

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