
In today’s briefing:
- Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials
- [Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Sees Murakami Pushing Harder, Now at 16.59%
- Yinson (7293) SLB, A Documented Pricing-Lag Arbitrage in 2025
- TEF: Front-Load Pain, Bank FY26 Gains
- Merger Arbitrage and Activist Investor Developments: FONR, MYX:AX, STAA, and EM Under the Spotlight

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH’s Updated Financials
- On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
- Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
- The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.
[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) MBO Sees Murakami Pushing Harder, Now at 16.59%
- Four weeks ago, CVC announced a family-led MBO of hair care and cosmetics company Mandom Corp (4917 JP) at a price which was decidedly too light, well below company plans.
- One activist wrote a letter clearly calling them out for accepting a low-ball price well below the Medium Term Management Plan target. Another bought a lot of shares.
- On 25 September, Murakami-san and affiliates reported an 8.39% position. Seven trading days later it is 16.59% and the shares are up small from my last piece + 1.
Yinson (7293) SLB, A Documented Pricing-Lag Arbitrage in 2025
- Step-up confirmed, lag observed. Legal certainty of a 25bp step-up preceded market recognition by 3 business days, creating a clean pricing-latency window in an Asian SLB.
- Likely cause, vendor latency. Manual data vendor updates for sukuk profit-rate and SLB step-up fields likely delayed screens, as previously referenced.
- Valuation uplift, observed move. At a 5% discount rate, the 25bp step-up was worth about 36bps, the market acted slowly and repriced higher with a 49bp reaction.
TEF: Front-Load Pain, Bank FY26 Gains
- Telefónica plans a largely voluntary ERE (6–7k exits) post-4 Nov plan, targeting FY25 provisioning alongside Hispam exits. This creates a reset year and positions FY26 for cleaner margins and FCF.
- Benchmarking prior ERE, we forecast €0.5–0.6bn run-rate savings; ~€260m EBITDA uplift in 2026. Applying 5.2× EV/NTM EBITDA to adjusted base yields €6.40/share TP, before associates, minorities, lease-policy adjustments.
- Catalysts: 4 Nov strategy, ERE launch mid-Nov, Hispam closings. Key risks: uptake, regulation (Chile/Argentina), backfill erosion. Recommendation: BUY (12–18m); accumulate on weakness into plan headlines and execution milestones.
Merger Arbitrage and Activist Investor Developments: FONR, MYX:AX, STAA, and EM Under the Spotlight
- FONAR received a non-binding takeover bid at $17.25/share from a consortium led by its CEO/chairman, with a 7% spread.
- Mayne Pharma’s Nextstellis approved for Australia’s PBS, potentially weakening Cosette’s argument in their ongoing trial.
- Smart Share Global’s management rejected Hillhouse’s higher $1.77/ADS offer, opting for a $1.25/ADS management buyout.