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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Nov 15
0

Daily Brief Financials: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG), DGB Financial Group, Aroundtown , Regional REIT Ltd, JDC Group AG, CDL Hospitality Trusts, National Australia Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie
  • Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea
  • Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr
  • Regional REIT – Underlying progress but leasing remains subdued
  • JDC Group – Banking on a strong Q4
  • 10 in 10 with CDL Hospitality Trusts – Taking a Long-Term View on Singapore
  • NAB – Maturing Debt AUD40bn | At Top of Rate Cycle | With High Unseasoned Loans, CRE Loans

I Like Big Bank Buybacks And I Cannot Lie

By Travis Lundy

Step-By-Step Guide to Spot Companies Postponing Dividend Base Date to April in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • We can check this on KIND, KRX’s disclosure site. As an example, SK Inc. disclosed this information on July 26, two weeks before the dividend record date, August 10.
  • We can capture this information in English without the need for Korean. The disclosure title we must hunt is “Decision on Closure of Shareholder’s Registry (including Record Date) for Dividends.”
  • The critical aspect here is that we need to identify disclosures from companies that still use the year’s last trading day as the dividend base date.

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
  • I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023 but Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR) is not very far away from triggering a change.
  • Separately, I see two changes for the MDAX index and two changes for the SDAX index.

Regional REIT – Underlying progress but leasing remains subdued

By Edison Investment Research

Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) Q323 trading update includes details of further leasing events, at rents ahead of market levels, and continuing asset sales, at or above book value. However, with the balance of occupiers remaining cautious, as economic prospects are assessed, rent roll and occupancy weakened. Supported by the strong ‘return to the office’, RGL continues to expect an acceleration in leasing, to provide the underpinning for its efforts to reduce gearing while maintaining income and dividends.

JDC Group – Banking on a strong Q4

By Edison Investment Research

JDC Group (JDC) issued its Q323 report in which its FY23 guidance was adjusted to the lower end of the indicated revenue and EBITDA ranges. This was partly due to the weak economic environment in Germany and partly because JDC may not be able to consolidate Top Ten Group in FY23. Nevertheless, to reach the lower end of the €175–190m revenue guidance, a strong Q4 is needed given the 9M23 realised revenue of €122.9m. However, we believe guidance is realistic given seasonal trends as Q4 is the quarter when clients usually evaluate their insurance portfolios.

10 in 10 with CDL Hospitality Trusts – Taking a Long-Term View on Singapore

By Geoff Howie

10 in 10 with CDL Hospitality Trusts – Taking a Long-Term View on Singapore

NAB – Maturing Debt AUD40bn | At Top of Rate Cycle | With High Unseasoned Loans, CRE Loans

By Daniel Tabbush

  • NAB holds significantly more maturing debt in the coming year than its largest 3 peer banks in Australia and also more than the 3 banks in Singapore, by comparison
  • The bank has grown its business loans aggressively, which can see lumpy bad loans in a poor economy, with high unseasoned loans, yet its HoH credit costs were flat
  • CRE loans are meaningful at NAB, adding another risk to maturing debt at the top of the rate cycle with what appears to optimistic credit costs in recent results

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Thailand: J&T Global Express and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Q323 Another Tough Quarter for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) | Negative Read-Through for J&T Global

Q323 Another Tough Quarter for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) | Negative Read-Through for J&T Global

By Daniel Hellberg

  • KEX’s EBIT margin fell to -38% in Q323, but showed Q/Q improvement vs Q223
  • Q/Q progress on margin most likely due to KEX initiatives, not market recovery
  • Ongoing weakness in Thai domestic express market marginally negative for J&T 

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Sea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd: Potential for a Short Squeeze

Sea Ltd: Potential for a Short Squeeze

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • We suspect that the recent strength in Sea (SE US)‘s price performance is likely due to short covering, with shorts incentivized to cover after a nearly 38% gain.
  • As earnings approach, short positions have been increasing since late October, likely anticipating another earnings disappointment from Sea Ltd’s Q3 report on November 14, 2023.
  • Consensus estimates for Sea Ltd are at their lowest since its inception. A modest outperformance could lead to a squeeze in short interest.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Home Shopping Network, KT&G Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI200 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals
  • KT&G: A New Shareholder Return Policy Worth 2.8 Trillion Won Over Next 3 Years

KOSPI200 Rebalance in December 2023 Highlighted by Locals

By Douglas Kim

  • This article discusses the potential inclusions and exclusions of KOSPI200 rebalance inDecember 2023 (especially those that are highlighted by the locals).
  • Stocks that are expected to be added to the KOSPI200 index include Posco DX, HD Hyundai Electric, Sam-A Aluminum, TCC Steel, and Dentium. 
  • Stocks that are expected to be excluded in the KOSPI200 index Include Zinus, Handsome, Cuckoo Homesys, Taekwang Industrial, and Hyundai Home Shopping.

KT&G: A New Shareholder Return Policy Worth 2.8 Trillion Won Over Next 3 Years

By Douglas Kim

  • KT&G announced a new shareholder return policy worth 2.8 trillion won (including dividend payout of 1.8 trillion won and treasury shares purchase/cancellation of 1.0 trillion won) over next three years.
  • In addition, the company plans to cancel about 7.5% of the company’s existing treasury shares which represents about 142 billion won (1.2% of outstanding shares). 
  • Although this 2.8 trillion won in shareholder return policy is large, the company could have announced even larger shareholder return policy, including cancellation of its entire treasury shares. 

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Nov 14
0

Most Read: GMO Payment Gateway, Hanwha Ocean, Benesse Holdings, Ninebot , WuXi XDC Cayman , Japan Best Rescue System Co, Zhejiang Expressway Co H, Ajinomoto Co, Hygon Information Technology C, Vinda International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting*** Stocks
  • Hanwha Ocean: Potential Capital Raise of Nearly 2 Trillion Won
  • Benesse (9783) MBO – ¥2600/Share Is Up 40+% But It Is Still the Wrong Price
  • STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes
  • WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
  • Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth
  • Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting
  • Ajinomoto (2802) Secondary Offering (Cross-Holder Unwind) Matched Against Large Buyback
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December
  • Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

Japan – Increase in Shorts on Some Interesting*** Stocks

By Brian Freitas

Hanwha Ocean: Potential Capital Raise of Nearly 2 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Hanwha Ocean’s share price declined by 5% today, mainly due to local media reports about a potential capital raise of nearly 2 trillion won to 2.5 trillion won. 
  • Although the company has not officially announced a rights offering, we believe the probability of Hanwha Ocean announcing a major rights offering is relatively high in the next 3-6 months. 
  • We estimate this probability range is closer to about 60-70%. The company needs additional capital to improve its highly leveraged balance sheet and to make major investments. 

Benesse (9783) MBO – ¥2600/Share Is Up 40+% But It Is Still the Wrong Price

By Travis Lundy

  • Just before the close Friday, the Nikkei reported Benesse Holdings (9783 JP) would be the subject of an MBO in order to restructure the flagging private shinken-zemi business. And grow.
  • It turns out it is EQT and the Fukutake family at ¥2600/share – a 2-year high. Wow. It is also a ridiculously cheap price given the assets and money flows.
  • I expect this may get some people upset as the valuation methodology is dodgy and the artful (hehehe) Balance Sheet has some easter eggs, and spotted pumpkins… or something. 

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, we expect one change for the STAR50 INDEX in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.
  • With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.
  • SMIC (688981 CH) will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.

WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

By Brian Freitas

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise up to HK$4.07bn (US$521m) in its IPO by selling 197.6m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$24.67bn (US$3.16bn).
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) will not get Fast Entry to any indices but should be added to the HSCI and to Southbound Stock Connect in March.
  • Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion starting in September 2024.

Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth

By Travis Lundy

  • This MBO by MBK is a strong premium because of a low recent price, but it pays a low P/FCF multiple for growth, and no synergies counted.
  • Yet another MBO where insiders and friends take advantage of structural inferiority of minority shareholders. Something Should Be Done.
  • What do Minority Shareholders in Japan Say When They Meet Death? “OK, Today it is then.” (with apologies to Game Of Thrones).

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting

By Travis Lundy

  • Last week, Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) announced its rights offering on both its H-Shares and its A-Shares, previously mooted on 23 May, and the Circular on 26 June.
  • The company applied, got CSRC approval on 5 Nov, announced the issuance on 6 Nov, and shares went ex- on 10 November. It’s probably unneeded, but it’s there. 
  • The stock is cheap. The company will boost its payout ratio. And it isn’t that “heavy” a deal. The Rights Trading Dynamics may be interesting.

Ajinomoto (2802) Secondary Offering (Cross-Holder Unwind) Matched Against Large Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP) announced a large secondary offering of 14.3mm shares (2.75% of shs out). At last price that is ¥82bn.
  • At the same time, they announced a 10mm share (1.92%) ¥40bn buyback to be conducted from the delivery date of the Offering through 31 March 2024. 
  • Over time, there would be some index upweight as float increases. On a net basis, this is a small deal on a low vol stock with a semiconductor story lurking.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the December rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) complete, there could be 13 changes for the index.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.94% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.98bn. There are a lot of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
  • Over the last 6 months, the potential adds and potential deletes have tracked each other and underperformed the index. Positioning has led to outperformance in the last week.

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reported Asia Pulp & Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring Essity (ESSITYB SS)’s controlling Vinda International (3331 HK) stake at more than HK$20 per share.
  • Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.
  • Vinda’s recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief India: Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Bank Of Baroda, Life Insurance of India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Adani Ports – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Bank of Baroda and HDFC Bank
  • Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) 2Q24 Review: Poor Performance; No Signs of Turnaround. Sell.

Adani Ports – Earnings Flash – H1 FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone’s (APSEZ) H1/23-24 results came in slightly above expectations, with revenue growth of 26% y-o-y exceeding management’s full-year guidance for a 15-20% increase. EBITDA (excluding FX losses) rose by 17%, at the higher end of the 13-17% guidance. Net adjusted leverage improved to 3.4x (FY 2022-23: 4.0x). We expect the company’s leverage to continue improving in FY 2023-24, in line with management’s guidance.

In our view, there remains a small degree of regulatory overhang and negative headline risk facing the broader Adani Group, which may affect group entities’ financing access in the offshore bond market (particularly on an unsecured basis). That said, the group’s access to onshore and bank financing remains intact.

Separately, we note that the Supreme Court hearing regarding the Securities and Exchange Board of India’s (SEBI) investigation on Adani Group has been repeatedly deferred. The Supreme Court requested on November 6th that all parties file final submissions regarding the case by November 8th. We believe the regulatory overhang may only be resolved by the eventual outcome of SEBI’s investigation and the Supreme Court’s judgement. 

Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Bank of Baroda and HDFC Bank

By Victor Galliano

  • We retain Bank of Baroda as the deep value Indian bank from our peer group, for its modest valuations, healthy ROE and further improvements in pre- and post-provision returns
  • The market seems unconvinced by HDFC Bank but we retain it as our quality bank pick, with its potential for savings from the HDFC merger and its strong balance sheet
  • Axis bank stays on our watchlist, but its premium valuations are the challenge; we remain negative on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks and limited progress on returns

Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) 2Q24 Review: Poor Performance; No Signs of Turnaround. Sell.

By Raj Saya, CA, CFA

  • Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) reported its 1H24 earnings which are a continuation of the poor performance of the largest life insurer in India.
  • Total sales were down -10% (individual sales – flat y-o-y); VNB margins falling; outlook not positive. Not positive shifts in product mix or distribution trends.
  • We value LIC at 0.5x FY25e P/EV, implying a -15% downside from the current price, reflecting poor sales growth, loss of market-share and its failure to turn-around the business model.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Japan: Japan Best Rescue System Co, Ajinomoto Co, Shidax Corp, Takara Holdings, Appier Group, Sanyo Trading, Japan Elevator Service Holding, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth
  • Ajinomoto (2802) Secondary Offering (Cross-Holder Unwind) Matched Against Large Buyback
  • Shidax (4837) – Mgmt Lowers F’casts So Family Can MBO Minorities Cheap. Offensive Governance.
  • StubWorld: Takara Trading “Rich” As Bio Cuts Forecast Earnings
  • Appier (4180) | Key Drivers Behind Strong Q3 Performance
  • Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000
  • Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Transitioning onto the Next Stage
  • Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JP) – Game-Changer Continuing to Excel
  • The ％ of Female Board Members Exceeding 30% Shows Whether the Company Is Truly Pursuing Diversity

Japan Best Rescue (2453) MBO at ¥1,000; High Premium, Low Multiple, No Money For Synergies or Growth

By Travis Lundy

  • This MBO by MBK is a strong premium because of a low recent price, but it pays a low P/FCF multiple for growth, and no synergies counted.
  • Yet another MBO where insiders and friends take advantage of structural inferiority of minority shareholders. Something Should Be Done.
  • What do Minority Shareholders in Japan Say When They Meet Death? “OK, Today it is then.” (with apologies to Game Of Thrones).

Ajinomoto (2802) Secondary Offering (Cross-Holder Unwind) Matched Against Large Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Ajinomoto Co (2802 JP) announced a large secondary offering of 14.3mm shares (2.75% of shs out). At last price that is ¥82bn.
  • At the same time, they announced a 10mm share (1.92%) ¥40bn buyback to be conducted from the delivery date of the Offering through 31 March 2024. 
  • Over time, there would be some index upweight as float increases. On a net basis, this is a small deal on a low vol stock with a semiconductor story lurking.

Shidax (4837) – Mgmt Lowers F’casts So Family Can MBO Minorities Cheap. Offensive Governance.

By Travis Lundy

  • Shidax had a Good Governance Moment last year. The stock is up 40-odd% since last year’s GGM, but now the Board, so good last year, has tripped up. 
  • The family and main shareholder – part of last year’s GGM – have decided to bully the Board into accepting an MBO at the wrong price. 
  • Management lowers forecasts without telling anyone. Bidders say “Synergies LaLaLa!” Board says “Ohh la la!” Nobody counts the synergies. Bidder buys at low multiple of newly lowered forecasts. Minorities Lose. 

StubWorld: Takara Trading “Rich” As Bio Cuts Forecast Earnings

By David Blennerhassett

  • On an implied stub and simple ratio, Takara Holdings (2531 JP) is at a decade-plus high to 60.9%-held Takara Bio Inc (4974 JP).
  • Preceding my comments on Takara are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Appier (4180) | Key Drivers Behind Strong Q3 Performance

By Mark Chadwick

  • Appier’s Q3 demonstrated a 39% YoY revenue increase, reaching a record JPY7.1B. This was driven by substantial growth in the US/EMEA markets (117% YoY), customer expansion, and Digital Content growth.
  • Appier’s gross margin expanded from 51.3% to 52.6% and the operating margin reached a historical high of 4.4%. Despite ongoing investments, EBITDA margins hit12.1%, showcasing strong operating leverage.
  • Appier’s revised full-year outlook, with increased revenue target (JPY 26.2B), operating income (JPY0.70B), and EBITDA (JPY2.6B), exceeds consensus expectations by 1%, 11%, and 8%, respectively.

Japan Best Rescue System (2453 JP): MBK Partners Backed MBO Tender Offer at JPY1,000

By Arun George

  • Japan Best Rescue System Co (2453 JP)/JBR has recommended an MBK Partners-backed MBO tender offer of JPY1,000 per share, a 53.8% premium to the undisturbed price (13 November). 
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • Irrevocables to accept the offer represent a 53.62% ownership ratio. The minimum acceptance condition requires a 28.1% minority acceptance rate, which is helped by the significant premium. 

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Transitioning onto the Next Stage

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Impressive progress to date – Q1-4 FY9/2023 results were at record highs for the company, demonstrating a sustained track record of above-average profitability and disciplined capital allocation via M&A.
  • Business diversification to life sciences has led to sales mix improvement and a more resilient business in our view.
  • Company guidance for FY9/2024 indicates a decrease in earnings YoY, attributed to the accumulation of strategic upfront investments for business development. 

Japan Elevator Service Holdings (6544 JP) – Game-Changer Continuing to Excel

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Success of disruptive innovation – we believe Q1-2 FY3/2024 results were ahead of the run-rate for FY guidance, driven by 1) sustained growth in maintenance and repair service contracts, and
  • 2) stronger than expected demand for modernization services, resulting in gross margin improvement QoQ in Q2 FY3/2024 via amplified proposal effectiveness and increases in pricing.
  • We expect to see JES continue to successfully disrupt the market via innovation, driven by secular growth as building owners convert to reputable independent providers for cost management and structural demand from aging elevators requiring modernization.

The ％ of Female Board Members Exceeding 30% Shows Whether the Company Is Truly Pursuing Diversity

By Aki Matsumoto

  • 30% female board member set by TSE isn’t surprising, as it’s level within reach, but the fact that TSE set explicit target that companies can’t excuses is a first step.
  • To ensure that a female board member isn’t isolated from other board members, multiple female board members should be elected. In this sense, 30% female board members goal makes sense.
  • In fact, the most interesting question is how many more companies will approach 50% after achieving a 30% of female board members.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief China: WuXi XDC Cayman , Zhejiang Expressway Co H, Hygon Information Technology C, Vinda International, Zeekr, China Feihe, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
  • Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting
  • CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December
  • Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders
  • Zeekr Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Been Growing Very Fast While Meeting Its Targets
  • China Feihe (6186 HK):  Year-Of-The-Dragon Trade
  • CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings

WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

By Brian Freitas

  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise up to HK$4.07bn (US$521m) in its IPO by selling 197.6m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$24.67bn (US$3.16bn).
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) will not get Fast Entry to any indices but should be added to the HSCI and to Southbound Stock Connect in March.
  • Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion starting in September 2024.

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) Rights Offering – The Dynamics May Be Interesting

By Travis Lundy

  • Last week, Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) announced its rights offering on both its H-Shares and its A-Shares, previously mooted on 23 May, and the Circular on 26 June.
  • The company applied, got CSRC approval on 5 Nov, announced the issuance on 6 Nov, and shares went ex- on 10 November. It’s probably unneeded, but it’s there. 
  • The stock is cheap. The company will boost its payout ratio. And it isn’t that “heavy” a deal. The Rights Trading Dynamics may be interesting.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 13 Potential Changes in December

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period for the December rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX) complete, there could be 13 changes for the index.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 1.94% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 6.98bn. There are a lot of stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
  • Over the last 6 months, the potential adds and potential deletes have tracked each other and underperformed the index. Positioning has led to outperformance in the last week.

Vinda International (3331 HK): Essity’s Stake Attracts More Potential Bidders

By Arun George

  • Bloomberg reported Asia Pulp & Paper is the latest party to have expressed interest in acquiring Essity (ESSITYB SS)’s controlling Vinda International (3331 HK) stake at more than HK$20 per share.
  • Vinda has three substantial shareholders. We think the most likely structure is a bidder acquiring Essity’s stake, which would trigger a mandatory general offer.
  • Vinda’s recent update points to improving growth and margins. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$21-26 per share, a 7-32% premium to the last close.

Zeekr Pre-IPO – The Positives – Has Been Growing Very Fast While Meeting Its Targets

By Sumeet Singh

  • Zeekr, a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK) , aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
  • Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

China Feihe (6186 HK):  Year-Of-The-Dragon Trade

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • China Feihe (6186 HK) saw major derating (from around 20x PE to the current high-single-digit PE) coupled with sizable earnings drop (-28% yoy in 2022/-25% yoy in 1H23) since 2022. 
  • The investment thesis or trade thesis here is a play on the rise of new born babies in 2024, the year of the dragon in China. 
  • The margin of safety here is also high given a 7% forward dividend yield (Feihe has pledged to increase dividend payout ratio going forward).

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

By Daniel Hellberg

  • J&T debuted with a rich valuation, but little investor enthusiasm to date
  • Focusing on J&T’s valuation alone could be a boon to CaiNiao’s valuation…
  • …but, with few other comps, J&T’s lackluster early performance could be a drag

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: The Week Ahead: No Shortage of Potential Catalysts; Tencent (700) Reports and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • The Week Ahead: No Shortage of Potential Catalysts; Tencent (700) Reports, MSC Index Changes, US CPI

The Week Ahead: No Shortage of Potential Catalysts; Tencent (700) Reports, MSC Index Changes, US CPI

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • The week ahead is packed with economic, index and earnings releases.
  • MSC announce index changes tomorrow evening for the November rebalance (30 Nov). We highlight potential deletions from MSC SA below (ANG, GRT, ARI, NPH).
  • Tencent is due to release earnings on Wednesday after the Hong Kong close. The market is expecting a robust set of results.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief ESG: The ％ of Female Board Members Exceeding 30% Shows Whether the Company Is Truly Pursuing Diversity and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The ％ of Female Board Members Exceeding 30% Shows Whether the Company Is Truly Pursuing Diversity

The ％ of Female Board Members Exceeding 30% Shows Whether the Company Is Truly Pursuing Diversity

By Aki Matsumoto

  • 30% female board member set by TSE isn’t surprising, as it’s level within reach, but the fact that TSE set explicit target that companies can’t excuses is a first step.
  • To ensure that a female board member isn’t isolated from other board members, multiple female board members should be elected. In this sense, 30% female board members goal makes sense.
  • In fact, the most interesting question is how many more companies will approach 50% after achieving a 30% of female board members.

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