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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 03
0

Daily Brief United States: Hollysys Automation Technologies, Sitime Corporation, MillerKnoll, CCC Intelligent Solutions Hold, DLocal and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Hollysys (HOLI US): Board Starts a Formal Sale Process
  • An Update with Rajesh Vashist of SiTime
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – MLKN Results Boost Sector; Consumer Confidence Dips
  • CCC Intelligent Solutions On The Sales Block: Why Are Bain
  • DLocal Ltd: Does The Potential Sale Of The Fintech Player Present An Opportunity?

Hollysys (HOLI US): Board Starts a Formal Sale Process

By Arun George

  • The Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) Board succumbs to shareholder pressure by announcing the formation of a special committee to conduct a formal sale process.
  • Hollysys has received non-binding proposals from six parties since December 2020. The most recent is a non-binding proposal from the Recco consortium at US$25.00 per share.
  • The Board’s change of heart should encourage previous bidders to re-engage. Recco’s offer, while attractive, is not a knockout bid, suggesting a possible bidding war. 

An Update with Rajesh Vashist of SiTime

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • This week, Rajesh Vashist of SiTime came to talk about SiTime’s new product launch, Epoch. 
  • SiTime is still the least understood story in semiconductors because timing is one of the least understood products or applications in semiconductors.
  • Timing chips. They are the heartbeat of any system in any communications, processing, computing, or all of the above.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly – MLKN Results Boost Sector; Consumer Confidence Dips

By Water Tower Research

  • MillerKnoll earnings sparked a second week of outperformance for the commercial/contract furniture stocks, which rose ~8% in a week when broader indices were roughly flat.

  • MLKN reported adjusted EPS of $0.37 in 1QFY24, above consensus of $0.21 consensus, and upped guidance.
  • Shares jumped 27% on Wednesday. All three major US firms in the sector advanced last week.

CCC Intelligent Solutions On The Sales Block: Why Are Bain

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special, one-time report on CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc., a noteworthy provider specializing in car-insurance software, that has garnered substantial attention as it finds itself potentially at the cusp of a pivotal acquisition deal.
  • The current ownership landscape of CCC is dominated by Advent International, holding a commanding 56% stake, and it has reportedly been exploring sale options following a Reuters report.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

DLocal Ltd: Does The Potential Sale Of The Fintech Player Present An Opportunity?

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special one-time report on DLocal, a company that has been a subject of intense scrutiny and intrigue, especially after reports by Bloomberg News about the company considering various future paths, including a potential sale.
  • The speculation of its sale has set the financial markets abuzz, leading to a noticeable uptick in the company’s shares.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Oct 03
0

Daily Brief South Korea: KT&G Corporation, Ecopro Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: August & September 2023
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2023

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: August & September 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in August and September 2023.
  • We provide a list of 18 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in August and September 2023.
  • The top three market cap stocks that have announced share repurchases include Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS), and KT&G Corporation (033780 KS). 

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 4Q 2023.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 18 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 20 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
  • We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.

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Oct 03
0

Daily Brief Singapore: UOB, OUE Commercial REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • UOB – Weaker Credit | Struggling Cost Base | Moving to Trading | A Changing Face
  • REIT Watch – Positive rent reversions recorded across Singapore office market

UOB – Weaker Credit | Struggling Cost Base | Moving to Trading | A Changing Face

By Daniel Tabbush

  • UOB can be harder hit than peers due to its greater SME focus. SME’s may be less able to absorb or pass on higher costs, or manage worse demand.
  • Domestic credit growth is at -4.1% in July YoY, from -3.3% YoY in June and from 2.1% in May. This can represent risk-aversion, worse demand, deteriorating credit metrics in SG.
  • UOB’s Greater China lending is SGD52bn, nearly identical to Thailand, Malaysia combined. Building & Construction NPLs rose from SGD1.1bn to SGD1.4bn HoH to 2Q23.

REIT Watch – Positive rent reversions recorded across Singapore office market

By Geoff Howie

  • Singapore Grade A office rent and core CBD Occupancy According to CBRE Research’s latest Singapore Occupier Sentiment Survey, office utilisation in Asia-Pacific outpaced that in Europe and the US.
  • Similarly, MPACT saw positive rental reversions in its latest Q2FY23 update, with Mapletree Business Centre at 7.1 per cent and the rest of Singapore office properties and business parks at 8.9 per cent.
  • Looking ahead, MPACT expects rents for business parks to remain flat or stable with minimal growth in 2023 despite the expected rise in vacancy, as new and good-quality business parks will command higher rental rates.

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Oct 03
0

Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A), Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma, China Vanke (H), Cainiao Smart Logistics, Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In, China Communications Construction, China Shineway Pharmaceutical and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba Cloud IPO: Regulatory Optimism Amidst Stability Challenges
  • Haitong Securities – Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue
  • HEC Pharma (1558 HK): Robust 1H23 Performance on Flu Outbreak in China
  • Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Sep28): Hs Suffer Vs As Despite Inflows
  • CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 1 | Business Model | Key Relationships | Differentiators
  • China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 2
  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): Well Worth Revisiting
  • China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) – Optimistic About the Outlook Despite Short-Term Headwinds

Alibaba Cloud IPO: Regulatory Optimism Amidst Stability Challenges

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Last week, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) put forth a proposal to relax certain stringent regulations concerning the transfer of sensitive data to foreign countries.
  • This could be advantageous for Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s Cloud business, especially as a potential candidate for an IPO following the recent IPO filing of the logistics arm, Cainiao.
  • Despite improved regulations, concerns about stability, leadership, and financial performance pose hurdles for Alibaba Cloud’s IPO.

Haitong Securities – Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue

By Daniel Tabbush

  • With the potential corporate action (see additional reading below) there is more interest in Haitong Securities but operationally it does not appear positive, for many reasons
  • The company is seeing worse revenue growth in asset management, brokerage and investment banking, while its Haitong Bank can see far higher credit costs
  • Total operating costs are now 63% of revenue, tax rate is a lot higher, litigation risks seem to be oversized, with potential impact to costs

HEC Pharma (1558 HK): Robust 1H23 Performance on Flu Outbreak in China

By Tina Banerjee

  • Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK) reported a whopping 148% YoY growth in revenue to RMB3,209M in 1H23. Net profit rebounded to RMB3,209M from a loss of RMB33M in 1H22.
  • In H1 2023, revenue from Kewei, approved for first-line treatment of influenza, jumped 186% YoY to RMB2,881M, representing ~90% of total revenue, mainly due to spiking flu cases in China.
  • Recently, the company obtained approval for premixed Protamine human insulin injection and submitted marketing application for its self-developed product, Yiqibuvir for the treatment of chronic Hepatitis C in China.

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Sep28): Hs Suffer Vs As Despite Inflows

By Travis Lundy

  • The Brand-Spanking New (8 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
  • We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.
  • The last 7 weeks (since the start of the new Trcker and Portfolio 8 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 1 | Business Model | Key Relationships | Differentiators

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Business model: how does CaiNiao get paid, and by whom, and for what?
  • Key relationships with parent Alibaba and with China’s listed express companies
  • Differentiators: what makes CaiNiao different from other e-comm logistics names?

China Population Policies Impact on Healthcare Companies Series – Part 2

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Several provinces have successively introduced policies to encourage childbirth. Increasing medical insurance reimbursement and special additional deduction standards for personal income tax would be the common direction. 
  • This year is mainly a period of intensive introduction of relevant fertility support policies, so the impact on company’s performance is limited.The focus would be on next year’s financial results.
  • We analyzed the performance of Livzon Pharmaceutical Group In (000513 CH),BGI Genomics (300676 CH) and Jinxin Fertility Group (1951 HK) based on their 23H1 reports, and adjusted our forecast accordingly.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Well Worth Revisiting

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The fall in share price in the last five months have sent China Communications Construction (1800 HK) back to very attractive level. The market has misread the strong 2Q23 result.
  • 2Q23 recurring net profit surged 68.5% as 2Q22 has an inflated base. Gross margin has recorded meaningful YoY recovery while capex, particularly for BOT, has scaled back significantly. 
  • There should not be concerns about CCCC’s contract outlook. Its backlog is enough to cover 4.9x FY23F revenue and its PER of 2.7x has provided more than sufficient buffer.

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877.HK) – Optimistic About the Outlook Despite Short-Term Headwinds

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Shineway’s 23H1 performance exceeded expectations. High growth of injection products/TCM formula granules was commendable.But as pandemic is under control, sales of Shineway’s respiratory system prescription medications would decrease in 23H2.
  • The national VBP of TCM formula granules and the anti-corruption campaign in 23H2 could be the short-term headwinds to Shineway’s performance, which could lead to lower-than-expected 23H2 performance growth. 
  • China’s favorable policies will provide strong support for the development of TCM industry. Shineway’s TCM formula granules business would have outstanding future growth. So, we’re optimistic about Shineway’s long-term outlook.  

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Oct 03
0

Daily Brief India: JSW Infrastructure and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • JSW Infrastructure IPO Trading – Decent Subscription Rates Although Anchor Quality Was Mediocre

JSW Infrastructure IPO Trading – Decent Subscription Rates Although Anchor Quality Was Mediocre

By Clarence Chu

  • JSW Infrastructure (5978490Z IN) raised US$336m in its India IPO.
  • JSW Infrastructure (JSWI) is the fastest growing port-related infrastructure company in terms of growth in installed cargo handling capacity and cargo volumes handled during FY20 to FY22, according to CRISIL.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Oct 03
0

Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison

Kokusai Electric Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise around US$750m via selling a stake in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) (KE) in its Japan IPO.
  • KE main business activities consist of the manufacturing, sales and maintenance service of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • In our previous notes we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Baba, CCB, China Mobile, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beigene
  • Screening for GEMs: October 2023
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 29th): Beigene, China Vanke, Guangzhou Automobile, Wuapptec, Byd
  • Northbound Flows (Sep 29th): Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green, Moutai, BYD, Ping An Insurance
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 29th): Meituan, Tencent, ICBC, Xpeng
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 29th): Gigabyte, Hon Hai, Novatek, Quanta, Asia Vital

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Baba, CCB, China Mobile, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beigene

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 22nd.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Tencent, Baba, CCB, China Mobile, AIA, Innovent Bio, Beigene.

Screening for GEMs: October 2023

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
  • The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
  • Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 29th): Beigene, China Vanke, Guangzhou Automobile, Wuapptec, Byd

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 117.4% as of Sep 29th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 1.5ppt week on week, led by health care, industrials, consumer discretionary and offset by consumer staples, utilities, real estate.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Beigene, China Vanke, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Wuapptec Co Ltd.

Northbound Flows (Sep 29th): Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green, Moutai, BYD, Ping An Insurance

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 29th.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,482.1 million, led by financials, information technology, and offset by health care.
  • We highlight flows for Wuxi Apptec, Longi Green, Moutai, BYD, Ping An Insurance, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 29th): Meituan, Tencent, ICBC, Xpeng

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 29th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We have highlighted flows for Meituan, Tencent, ICBC and Xpeng.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 29th): Gigabyte, Hon Hai, Novatek, Quanta, Asia Vital

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD318.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD776mln and highlight foreign changes in Gigabyte, Hon Hai, Novatek, Quanta, Asia Vital.

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief ESG: Too Many Portfolio Companies Is One of the Reasons for Not Enough Engagement and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Too Many Portfolio Companies Is One of the Reasons for Not Enough Engagement
  • Novafives – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

Too Many Portfolio Companies Is One of the Reasons for Not Enough Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem of agenda setting in engagement with investment firms is due to the mismatch that is occurring in each of the listed companies and investors.
  • Meetings without top management present disappoint investors who have prepared thorough analyses of the issues facing the portfolio company. Top management should also avoid listening to template questions at meetings.
  • It’s unrealistic to ask passive funds that cannot devote resources not to ask template questions. Active funds of Japanese investment managers may have too many portfolio companies to engage adequately.

Novafives – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

  • Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
  • We assess Novafives’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial”, but Disclosure is “Weak”.
  • Novafives is an industrial engineering group that designs and supplies plant equipment. It also provides services spanning a wide variety of industrial sectors, including automotive, logistics, steel, aluminium, energy, cement and aerospace.

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: Saying Goodbye to September’s Challenges; JapanX: EV Charging Infra Is OK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan: Saying Goodbye to September’s Challenges; JapanX: EV Charging Infra Is OK

Ohayo Japan: Saying Goodbye to September’s Challenges; JapanX: EV Charging Infra Is OK

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS: The S&P 500 had a challenging September, closing down 5% for the month, marking its worst monthly performance since December 2022
  • JAPAN: Euglena shifts focus to commercial biofuels, Welcia partners with AEON for increased food sales, and Hitachi Zosen revolutionizes artificial meat with a 90% cost reduction in synthetic protein
  • JAPAN X: Growth in EV sales can only be sustained if charging demand is met by accessible and affordable infrastructure

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief ECM: Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case
  • Weekly Deals Digest (01 Oct) – Cainiao, Kokusai, Doosan, IMAX China, Keiyo, Toyo, Liontown
  • Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction
  • Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Seibu Giken IPO Trading – Still Not Particularly Enticing
  • Lalatech IPO: New Filing’s H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a speciality manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment. KKR & (KKR US) seeks to raise about US$750 million through listing Kokusai.
  • In Kokusai Electric IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on a declining revenue trend, a challenging near-term growth target, high China revenue risk, margins on a downward trend, increasing inventory days and deteriorating FCF.

Weekly Deals Digest (01 Oct) – Cainiao, Kokusai, Doosan, IMAX China, Keiyo, Toyo, Liontown

By Arun George

Cainiao Pre-IPO: An on the Ground Introduction

By Ming Lu

  • We talk about what we see and hear here on the ground, that the company may not mention in its prospectus.
  • We believe Cainiao has the ambition to take the whole logistics chain from retailers’ doors to shoppers’ doors since the company’s inception.
  • We also believe Cainiao has been trying to take competitors’ market share by taking their client lists.

Seoul Guarantee Insurance IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

Seibu Giken IPO Trading – Still Not Particularly Enticing

By Sumeet Singh

  • Seibu Giken (6223 JP) (SG) raised around US$93m in its Japan IPO after pricing at the top of its downward revised range.
  • SG sells desiccant dehumidifiers and VOC concentrators in over fifty countries globally. Its two main products accounted for over 90% of its revenue in 2022.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Lalatech IPO: New Filing’s H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results
  • Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion
  • Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains

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