Smartkarma Daily Briefs, Author at Smartkarma

Sep 25

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan: SPX -2.9%WoW as UAW Auto Strikes Expand; JapanX – Nintendo Is THE Prime Gaming Asset and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan: SPX -2.9%WoW as UAW Auto Strikes Expand; JapanX – Nintendo Is THE Prime Gaming Asset
2023Q4 A-Share Market Outlook and the Potential Sino-US Deals – Time to Go Long?

Ohayo Japan: SPX -2.9%WoW as UAW Auto Strikes Expand; JapanX – Nintendo Is THE Prime Gaming Asset

By Mark Chadwick

OVERSEAS: The S&P 500 lost 2.9% last week, its worst performance since March; US Auto Strike expands; US budget talks fail – Govt shutdown risk rises.
JAPAN: Nikkei ends the week down -3.4%; BOJ downplays policy exit; Japan Core Inflation remains at 3.1%
JAPAN X: Phil Spencer, the head of gaming at Microsoft, was found to have expressed keen interest in acquiring Nintendo

2023Q4 A-Share Market Outlook and the Potential Sino-US Deals – Time to Go Long?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

How long the Fed has to maintain high interest rates sometimes does not entirely depend on the US itself, but also depends on whether other countries are willing to “cooperate”.
As China and the US have entered deeper negotiations, investors are looking forward to some big deals, but they may also need to be psychologically prepared for “not meeting expectations”.
Since the biggest problem restricting foreign investment inflows has been solved, incremental funds are coming. The real A-share bull market may not come until the RMB officially enters sustained appreciation channel.

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Sep 25

Daily Brief ECM: Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

Jyoti CNC Automation (0907734D IN) is looking to raise up to US$120m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Equirus, SBI Capital and ICICI Securities.
Jyoti CNC Automation is a manufacturer of simultaneous 5-Axis Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines with the second and twelfth largest market share in India and globally, respectively, according to F&S.
Its portfolio includes a range of CNC machines such as CNC Turning Centers, CNC Turn Mill Centers and CNC Vertical Machining Centers, amongst others.

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Sep 25

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Redsun Properties Group Ltd

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Redsun Properties Group Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

JSW Steel Ltd
Redsun Properties Group Ltd

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Sep 25

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2023
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Ahead; Taiwan AI Plays Slump But Still Beat Nvidia Last 3 Months
Micron’s Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI
Malaysia Airport (MAHB): Undervalued Tourism Play in SEA
Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs
Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)
Pointerra Ltd – FY24 Outlook Improving
Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Continued Stellar Growth in Q2; Pipeline Expansion to Drive Growth

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2023

By Sameer Taneja

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), Water Oasis (1161 HK), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM).
We add UMP Healthcare (722 HK) to our list of small/mid-cap names we track. The company has just recently declared its full-year results.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Ahead; Taiwan AI Plays Slump But Still Beat Nvidia Last 3 Months

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron results this week. The company is likely to call a trough for memory prices and highlight its development of the next most advanced type of HBM DRAM for AI.
Taiwan’s market fell, with previous AI-rally beneficiaries continuing to be some of the top losers. Interestingly, Taiwan AI-names outperformed Nvidia over the last three months.
Intel’s Innovation Conference wrapped up last week, with its new Meteor Lake PC CPUs launching Dec 14th, which is positive for the PC supply chain. Intel shares fell slightly however.

Micron’s Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron’s earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.
Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our ‘reversion catch up’ trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.
SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.

Malaysia Airport (MAHB): Undervalued Tourism Play in SEA

By Henry Soediarko

Besides Thailand and Singapore, Malaysia is one of the countries in South East Asia that are popular tourists destination.
Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) is the airport operator that benefits from the tourism recovery in Malaysia.
Compared to Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) , Malaysia Airport is trading at a lower valuation, although it has recorded better operating numbers YTD.

Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By Osbert Tang, CFA

While valuations for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) do not appear expensive, there is a risk that the 2H23 earnings outlook is weaker than expected. This opens room for disappointment.
There is no sign that domestic sales have picked up and Jul-Aug was still down significantly. Meanwhile, the strong export in 1H23 has not sustained in the last two months.
The weaker A-share market so far in 2H23 also does not bode well for investment gains, which are important contributors to the impressive earnings rebound in 1H23.

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

By Douglas O’Laughlin

First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.
BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.
BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies’ ASPs fell by far more
Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week
We think SF Holding should outperform its “plain vanilla” express peers in medium-term

Pointerra Ltd – FY24 Outlook Improving

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using and sharing massive 3D point clouds and datasets.
Pointerra3D is a proprietary digital twin SaaS platform which delivers predictive digital insights and definitive answers to complex physical asset management questions.
The company has reported FY23 revenue of $8.3m, a decline of 22% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and an underlying EBITDA loss of $4.68m (which includes non-recurring project services costs of $2.19m), against an underlying EBITDA loss of $0.02m a year ago.

Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Continued Stellar Growth in Q2; Pipeline Expansion to Drive Growth

By Tina Banerjee

In 2Q23, Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT) reported 53% YoY growth in revenue to NTD4.4B, mainly driven by strong uptake of Lenalidomide and Suboxone in America and branded products in Taiwan.
Lotus reported an EPS of NTD4.85 for Q2 2023, 285% above EPS of NTD1.26 reported for the same quarter of 2022. This result beat the average analyst’s estimate by NTD0.64.
Lotus has acquired exclusive global right to develop and commercialize suicidal bipolar therapy NRX-101 and obtained approval for new branded oncology drug Zepzelca in Taiwan.

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Sep 25

Daily Brief Macro: Is Stagflation in Our Future? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Is Stagflation in Our Future?
BoJ Risks Major Credibility Test, While Fed and ECB Send Different Signals About Peak Rates
Has the VIX Lost Its Use As A Fear Gauge?
Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?
Steno Signals #66: Buckle up for the energy crisis 2.0
Taking a Stab at Monitoring the Macro Pulse of China

Is Stagflation in Our Future?

By Cam Hui

Stagflation is not our base-case scenario, but a review of market leadership shows that stagflation risk is rising and needs to be monitored carefully.
In addition, stagflation could be exacerbated by disgruntled electorates turning to populist governments, which have shown to depress economic growth.
Investors can hedge against a stagflation scenario with a barbell exposure to commodity producers, U.S. megacap growth stocks, and value and high-quality outside the U.S.

BoJ Risks Major Credibility Test, While Fed and ECB Send Different Signals About Peak Rates

By Said Desaque

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) credibility could be tested as it exits its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and yield curve control (YCC) due to political pressure.
The European Central Bank strongly hinted that the peak in short-term interest rates may have been reached. Markets seem to be betting on a spring decline in Eurozone interest rates.
The latest Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting confirmed a higher for longer policy stance in 2024, although the FOMC will allegedly receive more dovish voting members.

Has the VIX Lost Its Use As A Fear Gauge?

By Cam Hui

In this era of increased 0DTE option trading, VXST is a more useful sentiment indicator, and readings are indicating a fear spike.
The S&P 500 has become sufficiently short-term oversold that a relief rally is imminent.
However, oversold markets can become more oversold and market internals could be supportive of one final sentiment flush before a durable bottom can be seen.

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

By Emil Moller

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.
The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.
It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.

Steno Signals #66: Buckle up for the energy crisis 2.0

By Andreas Steno

Is there another major energy crisis in the making and how does it differ from the crisis in 2021/2022?
We have long held the view that the tightness in energy markets would lead global macro trends from one extreme to the other with relatively short 18-24 month cycles and here we are probably on the verge of another extreme again.
The impulse from input costs in necessities (read mainly energy costs) will dictate the cycle trends and after an outright landslide in input costs over the past 12 months, we are now edging higher fast again.

Taking a Stab at Monitoring the Macro Pulse of China

By Thomas Lam

While it is desirable to gain more insights on China, it is also crucial to view it through a differentiated lens
This is partly because of the country’s multifaceted policy environment and its complex relationship to overall economic activity
My approach is to harness the proprietary China Credit Impulse Measure (CIM) to extract statistical relationships and unearth macro clues

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Sep 25

Daily Brief Australia: Pointerra Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Pointerra Ltd – FY24 Outlook Improving

Pointerra Ltd – FY24 Outlook Improving

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Pointerra Ltd (ASX:3DP) provides a powerful cloud-based solution (Pointerra3D) for managing, visualising, analysing, using and sharing massive 3D point clouds and datasets.
Pointerra3D is a proprietary digital twin SaaS platform which delivers predictive digital insights and definitive answers to complex physical asset management questions.
The company has reported FY23 revenue of $8.3m, a decline of 22% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and an underlying EBITDA loss of $4.68m (which includes non-recurring project services costs of $2.19m), against an underlying EBITDA loss of $0.02m a year ago.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 25

Daily Brief Singapore: Thai Beverage, Golden Agri Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst
Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

By Brian Freitas

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.
There has been a contraction in multiples and Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.
A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP): Could Outperform Peers

By Brian Freitas

Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) has traded lower over the last year and trades cheaper than some of its peers.
Revenue, income and net profit margins have been moving higher over the last few years and EPS/DPS have increased sharply over the last two years.
Potential passive buying could result in Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) outperforming peers in the near term.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 25

Daily Brief United States: Micron Technology and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Micron’s Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

Micron’s Results Likely to Call a Memory Market Trough and Highlight New HBM DRAM for AI

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron’s earnings results will be released September 27th. We expect the company to describe a trough for memory pricing happening now and provide a positive outlook for rising prices.
Micron and Nanya Tech have outperformed SK Hynix recently. Our ‘reversion catch up’ trade has worked. Going forward we believe Micron looks compelling on a relative basis.
SK Hynix was ahead of peers developing HBM DRAM needed for AI. However, Micron could now convince the market it can catch up by focusing on the next advanced version.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 25

Daily Brief India: Jyoti CNC Automation, Redsun Properties Group Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Redsun Properties Group Ltd

Jyoti CNC Automation Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

Jyoti CNC Automation (0907734D IN) is looking to raise up to US$120m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Equirus, SBI Capital and ICICI Securities.
Jyoti CNC Automation is a manufacturer of simultaneous 5-Axis Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machines with the second and twelfth largest market share in India and globally, respectively, according to F&S.
Its portfolio includes a range of CNC machines such as CNC Turning Centers, CNC Turn Mill Centers and CNC Vertical Machining Centers, amongst others.

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Redsun Properties Group Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

JSW Steel Ltd
Redsun Properties Group Ltd

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Sep 25

Daily Brief China: China Mobile, ENM Holdings, China Vanke (H), Water Oasis, BYD , Lonking Holdings, Huawei Technology, S.F. Holding, Redsun Properties Group Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!
Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare
Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23): Financials & Communications Dominate Flows
Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2023
Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex
Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs
Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)
Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Redsun Properties Group Ltd

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : China Mobile, Meituan, Xpeng, Banks!

By Travis Lundy

This is the brand spanking new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw HKD 14.5bn+ of net buying. That makes ten weeks of net inflows.

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Sep) – ENM, Poly Culture, Eoflow, Origin Energy, Symbio, Costa, InvoCare

By Arun George

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Eoflow (294090 KS), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), JSR Corp (4185 JP), DDH1 (DDH AU), ENM Holdings (128 HK).
Lowest spreads – Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Healius (HLS AU), Yaizu Suisankagaku Industry (2812 JP), Allkem Ltd (AKE AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Pacific Current (PAC AU).

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (To 22Sep23): Financials & Communications Dominate Flows

By Travis Lundy

The Brand-Spanking New (7 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it and brought it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 47 Trade Recommendations.
The last 6 weeks (since the start of the new Monitor and Portfolio 7 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – September 2023

By Sameer Taneja

We compile our selection of small and mid-cap names with our desired characteristics of high dividend yields, value, and margin of safety.
Our top picks are Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), Water Oasis (1161 HK), Taste Gourmet (8371 HK), Uchi Technologies (UCHI MK), and The Keepers Holdings (KEEPR PM).
We add UMP Healthcare (722 HK) to our list of small/mid-cap names we track. The company has just recently declared its full-year results.

Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (Week to 22Sep23) : BYD, Midea, Bk of Jiangsu, & Amperex

By Travis Lundy

This is the brand spanking new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables and charts and welcome feedback. This week saw small net buying for the first week in seven.

Lonking (3339 HK): Between a Rock and a Hard Place

By Osbert Tang, CFA

While valuations for Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) do not appear expensive, there is a risk that the 2H23 earnings outlook is weaker than expected. This opens room for disappointment.
There is no sign that domestic sales have picked up and Jul-Aug was still down significantly. Meanwhile, the strong export in 1H23 has not sustained in the last two months.
The weaker A-share market so far in 2H23 also does not bode well for investment gains, which are important contributors to the impressive earnings rebound in 1H23.

Huawei and Kirin 9000S, Memory Markets, Intel, Nordic, and Broadcom TPUs

By Douglas O’Laughlin

First, let’s talk about Huawei. I want to highlight how lackadaisically the export restrictions have even been applied.
BIS granted validated end-user status to SMIC in 2007, which meant that as late as 2020, multiple SMIC entities were still receiving tools from American companies.
BIS got lobbied by tool makers to undo commerce control list regulations in 2018. Also, AMEC has outright stolen tools from US companies.

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short ‘Ground’? | (September 2023)

By Daniel Hellberg

Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies’ ASPs fell by far more
Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week
We think SF Holding should outperform its “plain vanilla” express peers in medium-term