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Daily Brief India: Hindware Home Innovation, Voltas Ltd, ITC Ltd, Vodafone Idea , Hindalco Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Hindware Home Innovation Ltd: Will Restructuring Change the Company’s Fortunes?
  • India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How
  • Event Driven: ITC Acquiring Aditya Birla Group’s Paper Business
  • Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist
  • Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans


Hindware Home Innovation Ltd: Will Restructuring Change the Company’s Fortunes?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Hindware Home Innovation (HINDWARE IN) plans to demerge its consumer appliances division into a separate listed entity.
  • Demerger removes loss-making drag, improving profitability and segment-specific valuation clarity.
  • Unlocks hidden value; better execution with new CEO with clear growth trajectory may lead further value creation for shareholders.

India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How

By Pranav Bhavsar


Event Driven: ITC Acquiring Aditya Birla Group’s Paper Business

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • ITC Ltd (ITC IN) recently announced the strategic acquisition of Century Pulp and Paper (CPP) from AB Real Estate (ABREL) for INR 3,500 crore on a slump sale basis.  
  • This Business Transfer Agreement (BTA) occurs amid an industry downturn marked by surging input costs, subdued demand, and competition from low-priced imports.
  • This acquisition significantly expands ITC’s paper segment capacity by 60%, targeting a 30-40% EBITDA per tonne improvement.

Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • GoI converts ₹36,950 crore of spectrum dues into equity, increasing its stake to ~49%. Promoters’ stake diluted to ~25.5%, with public shareholders now owning just ~23.8%. 
  • While the move eases cash outflows till H1FY28, Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues, weak subscriber base, and funding needs remain material headwinds.
  • Structural concerns remain unresolved, and further dilution risks persist along with loosing market share.

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

By Rahul Jain

  • Hindalco provided details of its ongoing expansion plans of about US$9.1b (US$1.7b spent). 
  • We note near-term headwinds from a) likely weakness in aluminium prices driven by cheaper alumina b) scrap market tightness c) sharp contraction in copper Tc/Rc’s
  • Valuations: Hindalco trades at about 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY26e which is inline with historic multiples. A lower multiple is warranted to factor impending headwinds.

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Daily Brief Australia: Nick Scali Ltd, Avjennings Ltd, Aluminium, Barton Gold Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Firm Offer As Ho Bee Walks
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Binding Proposal at A$0.655
  • Aluminum Futures – March 4, 2025
  • Barton Gold — The Rubicon crossed – marching to production
  • Barton Gold — The Rubicon crossed – marching to production


Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

By Brian Freitas


AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Firm Offer As Ho Bee Walks

By David Blennerhassett

  • The AVID consortium’s late-November A$0.67/share NBIO appeared a lock; until Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) lobbed a A$0.70/share NBIO in January. Ho Bee also acquired a 5.39% stake. 
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU) granted both suitors exclusive due diligence, the terms of which expired in February. AVJ said at the time it remained in “active discussions” with both.
  • AVJ and AVID have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$0.655/share. A special dividend – included in the Scheme consideration – could add A$0.072/share in franking credits. 

AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Binding Proposal at A$0.655

By Arun George

  • Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with AVID at A$0.655, 2.2% below its previous A$0.67 offer and a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour. 
  • Despite the marginally lower price, the offer is attractive, as evidenced by the hefty takeover premium. This is a done deal, with the scheme meeting expected in mid-June.

Aluminum Futures – March 4, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • According to Graph 1, during the period February 4th, 2025 – March 4th, 2025, a slightly bearish trend, among strong fluctuations, was reflected in the price of aluminium futures.
  • At the beginning of the timeframe, there was a significant increase in the price of the commodity, but after February 20th a steady downward momentum unfolded.
  • The MA-10 line very initially performed above the MA-20 line, however at February 6th it crossed below the latter. 

Barton Gold — The Rubicon crossed – marching to production

By Edison Investment Research

Barton has continued to aggressively pursue its ambition to produce 125–150koz gold pa at Tunkillia via open pit production, completing a 5,064m reverse circulation drilling campaign targeting block model extensions, updating JORC mineral resources to 1.6Moz gold and 3.1Moz silver and identifying material available energy savings. At Tarcoola, it has discovered the new Tolmer gold system, added further pit floor gold mineralisation at the Perseverance mine, and made a surprise high-grade silver discovery alongside Tolmer’s gold – the best interval of 6m at 4,747g/t (152.6opt) Ag being exceptionally high by anyone’s standards. These will all contribute to an optimised scoping study at Tunkillia in Q2 CY25 and (from Tarcoola) feedstock for ’Stage 1’ operations, leveraging its fully licensed Central Gawler mill to 20–30koz pa as early as mid-CY26. Topping it off, Barton announced a A$3.1m net profit for the half year to 31 December, an unusual and impressive feat for a junior.


Barton Gold — The Rubicon crossed – marching to production

By Edison Investment Research

Barton has continued to aggressively pursue its ambition to produce 125–150koz gold pa at Tunkillia via open pit production, completing a 5,064m reverse circulation drilling campaign targeting block model extensions, updating JORC mineral resources to 1.6Moz gold and 3.1Moz silver and identifying material available energy savings. At Tarcoola, it has discovered the new Tolmer gold system, added further pit floor gold mineralisation at the Perseverance mine, and made a surprise high-grade silver discovery alongside Tolmer’s gold – the best interval of 6m at 4,747g/t (152.6opt) Ag being exceptionally high by anyone’s standards. These will all contribute to an optimised scoping study at Tunkillia in Q2 CY25 and (from Tarcoola) feedstock for ’Stage 1’ operations, leveraging its fully licensed Central Gawler mill to 20–30koz pa as early as mid-CY26. Topping it off, Barton announced a A$3.1m net profit for the half year to 31 December, an unusual and impressive feat for a junior.


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Daily Brief Japan: T&D Holdings, Oisix ra daichi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)
  • Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update


T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, post-close, T&D Holdings (8795 JP)  announced ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.
  • The company also announced guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year). 
  • They announced the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a new buyback starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.

Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In January 2024, SHiDAX Corporation was consolidated as a subsidiary, boosting sales and EBITDA in Q4 FY03/24.
  • Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 progress rates: 75.9% sales, 93.7% EBITDA, 84.4% operating profit, 110.5% net income.
  • B2C Subscription sales decreased YoY, but segment profit increased due to higher ARPU and cost-efficient acquisitions.

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20, ST Engineering and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions
  • STI Books 5.3% Total Return in 1Q25


Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions

By Arusha Das

  • Trade war impacts the trade flow 
  • Arbitrage narrows on wintering 
  • Fluctuating inventory level indicates at a whimsical buying pattern 

STI Books 5.3% Total Return in 1Q25

By Geoff Howie

  • ST Engineering led STI with a 46% rally, 12M Consensus Estimate Target Price rose 36% to S$6.85.
  • Net creation of S$36M in units increased combined AUM of two STI tracking ETFs from S$2.3B to S$2.6B.
  • STI stocks booked S$1.63 billion net institutional outflow in 1Q25, mainly from STI Banks and S-REIT Sector.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, SmartStop Self Storage REIT, S&P 500 INDEX, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, ANGI Homeservices, Base Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO
  • SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines
  • Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/13] Henry Hub Rebounds on Declining Output and Rising LNG Exports
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/13] WTI Climbed on Tariffs and Inventory Draws
  • Weekly Update (ANGI, IAC, HOLN)
  • Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March
  • April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March


Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO

By William Keating

  • Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth
  • I intend to under promise and over deliver. I will not be satisfied until we delight you
  • How long will I stay at Intel? I’m here for as long as it takes

SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines

By IPO Boutique

  • According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed — our sources stated around 5x. 
  • Self-Storage was Monday’s second best performing sub-sector (+1.8%) as the overall REIT sector (+0.7%) slightly outperformed the broader market.
  • While the “typical” IPO investor may not be “enthused”, the timing for this type of deal “may” be ideal for yield-chasers.

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
  • Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
  • We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a “sell rallies” regime

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/13] Henry Hub Rebounds on Declining Output and Rising LNG Exports

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices gained 4.6% due to rising LNG exports and a drop in daily natural gas output.
  • Henry Hub gained 1.7% on 27/Mar (Thu), driven by lower output, record LNG exports, and stronger demand forecasts, despite a build in U.S. natural gas storage.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR decreased to 0.98 on 28/Mar from 1.05 on 21/Mar. Call OI fell by 10.1% WoW, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/13] WTI Climbed on Tariffs and Inventory Draws

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 28/Mar, driven by escalating trade tensions and declining U.S. crude oil inventories.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by one to 592. The oil rig count dropped by two to 484, and gas rigs rose by one to 103.
  • WTI OI PCR grew to 0.91 on 28/Mar from 0.90 on 21/Mar. Call OI increased by 7.0% WoW, while put OI grew by 7.3%.

Weekly Update (ANGI, IAC, HOLN)

By Richard Howe

  • This week, two charts caught my eye. First, investor sentiment continues to be very bad.

  • Second, non-US stocks are actually performing well.

  • Quietly, one of my recommendations, Airtel Africa (AAF) is at an all-time high. Airtel Africa is a good example of what you can find in international markets.

Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR

By Richard Howe

  • On March 31st 2025 I spoke to Mark Schneider of investor relations from IAC.
  • Mark currently covers investor relations for Angi, Inc as well. but Angi will be hiring its new head of investor relations soon.
  • Our conversation was productive and increased my confidence in the outlook for Angi.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices extend dip versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Margins hold firm for heavy grades, pointing to still-strong supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Firm margins partially cushion impact of weaker light-grade margins.

April Global Macro Volatility: Strong Price and Vol Seasonals

By John Ley

  • Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Global indexes and macro assets.
  • In-Depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price may unfold.
  • We highlight strong seasonal trends in April, with all markets typically rising and realized vol typically coming in below implied.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could hold firm over the coming weeks as buyers replenish low stocks and lube consumption holds steady.
  • Rising crude oil prices could provide additional support.
  • Seasonal slowdown in demand from end of second quarter typically starts to curb buying interest several weeks before then.

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Daily Brief China: Skyworth Group Limited, BYD, WuXi XDC Cayman , Dada Nexus , Shougang Fushan Resources, KE Holdings , ENN Energy, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Jinke Smart Services, China Traditional Chinese Medicine and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Skyworth Group (751 HK)’s Latest Partial Buyback. Thoughts On Proration
  • BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers
  • Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed
  • Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
  • Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield
  • KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%
  • ENN Energy (2688 HK): Valuing ENN Natural Gas H-Share
  • Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions
  • Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu Returns To The Well?
  • China TCM (570.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results


Skyworth Group (751 HK)’s Latest Partial Buyback. Thoughts On Proration

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23 December 2022, Skyworth Group (751 HK) announced (another) partial buyback, at HK$3.80/share, a 20.25% premium to undisturbed. On the 28 March, terms were bumped to $5.00/share. 
  • At the close of the Offer, the Wong Concert Group held 50.35%, and were no longer subject to the creeper rule. The Group now holds 56.04%
  • Yet another Partial Offer has been announced (HK$3.11/share, a 15.19% premium)), which will lift the Group’s stake to 66.45%.  Minimum pro-ration is 37.84%. It is likely to go higher.

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers

By Nico Rosti

  • A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
  • As of Tuesday, the stock is currently in the middle of a modest pullback, 1 week down, reached a support area where the probability of a bounce is around 50%.
  • We are at the start of the month, it may be early to benefit from the passive buying discussed by Brian Freitas, however this pullback could support a buy-the-dips strategy.

Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed

By Sumeet Singh

  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$250m via selling around 3.5% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
  • The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable. 
  • Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.

Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shougang Fushan Resources’ (639 HK) FY24 revenues/profits were down 14%/21% YoY due to the decline in coking coal prices, which were 14% YoY to 1666 RMB/ton (on similar volumes). 
  • At 1295 RMB/ton, spot prices are 25% lower than last year’s average, yet the stock is supported by cash, which represents 80% of its market capitalization (10 billion HKD).
  • The company provided a 100% payout of 30 HKD cents, resulting in a 12% dividend yield; however, at current spot prices, the yield is 7%.

KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

By Ming Lu

  • Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.
  • The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.
  • We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Valuing ENN Natural Gas H-Share

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We calculated that after the privatisation of ENN Energy (2688 HK), the EPS of ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) will be Rmb1.94 for FY25F and Rmb2.11 for FY26F.
  • By using ENN Energy’s undisturbed PER (with and without a 10% discount) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK)‘s ex-cash PER, ENN-NG H-share is worth 6.8-7.9x for FY25F and 6.3-7.2x for FY26F.
  • ENN-NG H-share is hence valued at HK$14.11-16.37, implying that ENN Energy’s value under the privatisation proposal is HK$66.02-72.67, which is lower than Somerly’s HK$80 estimate.

Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions

By Arusha Das

  • Trade war impacts the trade flow 
  • Arbitrage narrows on wintering 
  • Fluctuating inventory level indicates at a whimsical buying pattern 

Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu Returns To The Well?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27th September 2022, Boyu Group launched a HK$12/share VGO for PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), a 33.04% premium to last close.
  • Boyu and concert parties held 53.05%, and the Offer was contingent on regulatory approvals and 7.71% of shares out tendering. 4.79% tendered. Boyu also acquired 7.15% in the market.
  • Two days after announcing very ordinary FY24 results, Jinke shares were suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Presumably Boyu is on the acquisition path again. Another VGO or a privatisation?

China TCM (570.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • TCM finished drugs and TCM decoction pieces businesses could be the second and third growth curve of China TCM when the concentrated TCM granules business is facing VBP headwinds.
  • 2024 would be the performance low point. Due to 2024 low base, we would see positive growth in 2025.Performance recovery is expected in next three years based on our forecast.
  • Annual profit of RMB1 billion is achievable. If based on 10x P/E, market value is RMB10 billion.We think if valuations fall below RMB10 billion, investors can consider buying on dips.

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Most Read: BYD, T&D Holdings, Jusung Engineering, Korean Air Lines, Skyworth Group Limited, Nick Scali Ltd, Kcc Corp, WuXi XDC Cayman and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
  • T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)
  • HEM: Fear of Fear Itself
  • FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025
  • Skyworth Group (751 HK)’s Latest Partial Buyback. Thoughts On Proration
  • Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
  • BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers
  • KCC Corp: Considering on Issuing an Overseas EB for Its 10% Stake in Samsung C&T
  • Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed


BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas


T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, post-close, T&D Holdings (8795 JP)  announced ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.
  • The company also announced guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year). 
  • They announced the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a new buyback starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself

By Phil Rush

  • US surveys indicate a fear of tariffs and DOGE, leading to a negative sentiment.
  • Despite these fears, resilient labour markets suggest that concerns may be exaggerated.
  • There is an expectation of reversing unnecessary easing in 2026 due to high underlying price and wage inflation.

FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Just One Change Likely

By Brian Freitas

  • With the averaging period for the April rebalance now complete, we forecast just 1 change for the FnGuide Semiconductor Top10 Index at the upcoming rebalance.
  • Based on the passive assets tracking the index, there will be between 0.8-2.2x ADV to trade in the forecast changes.
  • The resumption of short selling makes it easier to position for these events. That could also result in the shorts moving a lot ahead of implementation.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 2Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 2Q 2025.
  • Among the 38 holdcos/opcos, there have been several pairs that have resulted in significant price ratio divergence which could provide trading opportunities in terms of their pricing gaps closing reversal.
  • Given the resumption in short selling in Korea, there is going to be a lot more interest in pair trades in Korea, especially among the major Korean holdcos/opcos. 

Skyworth Group (751 HK)’s Latest Partial Buyback. Thoughts On Proration

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23 December 2022, Skyworth Group (751 HK) announced (another) partial buyback, at HK$3.80/share, a 20.25% premium to undisturbed. On the 28 March, terms were bumped to $5.00/share. 
  • At the close of the Offer, the Wong Concert Group held 50.35%, and were no longer subject to the creeper rule. The Group now holds 56.04%
  • Yet another Partial Offer has been announced (HK$3.11/share, a 15.19% premium)), which will lift the Group’s stake to 66.45%.  Minimum pro-ration is 37.84%. It is likely to go higher.

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

By Brian Freitas


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers

By Nico Rosti

  • A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
  • As of Tuesday, the stock is currently in the middle of a modest pullback, 1 week down, reached a support area where the probability of a bounce is around 50%.
  • We are at the start of the month, it may be early to benefit from the passive buying discussed by Brian Freitas, however this pullback could support a buy-the-dips strategy.

KCC Corp: Considering on Issuing an Overseas EB for Its 10% Stake in Samsung C&T

By Douglas Kim

  • Kcc Corp (002380 KS) is considering on issuing an overseas exchangeable bond (EB) for its 10% stake in Samsung C&T (028260 KS).
  • KCC is the second largest shareholder of Samsung C&T with a 10% stake in the company which is worth 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion).
  • Our NAV valuation of KCC Corp suggests NAV per share of 332,947 won, which is 27% higher than current price.

Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed

By Sumeet Singh

  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$250m via selling around 3.5% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief ESG: The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush, but to Gain a Foothold and Proceed with Caution


The Toyota Way Is Not to Rush, but to Gain a Foothold and Proceed with Caution

By Aki Matsumoto

  • It’s unlikely that the transition to ‘company with audit committee’ will enhance the supervisory function, but it’s likely to speed up the decision-making process by delegating authority to executive directors.
  • Instead of achieving 30% female board member and moving to Company with US-type 3 Committees at once, Toyota will implement Toyota’s way firmly with BOD that is half independent directors.
  • The only way for Toyota, which faces several governance challenges, to uphold tradition of Toyoda family being at the top of management is to make the returns expected by investors.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Claws Back Losses and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Claws Back Losses
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Well off the Lows Pointing to Better Start for JP
  • Singapore Banks – Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD
  • European Software: Fortnox (FNOX SS) Going Private – Might Makes Right


Ohayo Japan | S&P 500 Claws Back Losses

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks ended a turbulent March with a rebound as the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 5,612 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1%, or roughly 400 points
  • Ricoh acquired an additional 44.4% stake in its U.S. subsidiary, Elixagen Scientific, on March 31, 2025, making it wholly owned
  • Independent Franchise Partners, a British investment firm, increased its stake in Shiseido to 6.25%, up from 5.2%

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Well off the Lows Pointing to Better Start for JP

By Andrew Jackson

  • Watch Softbank after bullish comments from ARM that it expects 50% DC GPU market share this year.
  • Hegseth’s Japan trip concludes with no demand for higher defense spending.
  • Shiseido was sharply higher yesterday after activist announces larger stake in an easy squeeze.

Singapore Banks – Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore’s banks and it is not particularly positive
  • The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it’s at 67.3%
  • Singapore’s banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans

European Software: Fortnox (FNOX SS) Going Private – Might Makes Right

By Gregory Ramirez

  • Fortnox has announced a public tender offer from EQT and First Kraft for SEK90 per share, valuing the company at SEK54.9bn, representing a 38% premium over the last closing price.   
  • The Fortnox deal signals a recovery in Software M&A activity in 2025. It highlights the growing trend of SaaS companies going private, following similar moves by other European SaaS firms.   
  • Despite the premium, some shareholders may be dissatisfied. Similar criticisms have arisen in other recent deals, but the offer might succeed due to Fortnox’s outstanding stock market performance.

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Daily Brief ECM: Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand
  • QingSong Health Corporation – Pain Points of the Business Model and the Outlook
  • Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Key Infrastructure Provider


Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of China’s Premium Tea Brand

By IPO Boutique

  • As of December 31, 2024, their network comprised 6,440 teahouses, including 6,284 located in China.
  • Their net revenues increased by 844% to RMB4,640.2 million in 2023 from RMB491.7 million in 2022. 
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.

QingSong Health Corporation – Pain Points of the Business Model and the Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The business model of QingSong is a platform offering comprehensive healthcare services and tailored financial resources. By connecting different stakeholders, QingSong can monetize its user base, creating a virtuous cycle.
  • Qingsong’s revenue structure has undergone significant changes. However, if Qingsong’s future business focus is on Qingsong Healthcare services, it may be difficult to generate large-scale profits in the end.
  • Listed insurance intermediary platforms have been in the shadow of a decline in stock prices. So, there is concerns that future share price performance of QingSong may not be optimistic.  

Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Positives – Key Infrastructure Provider

By Sumeet Singh

  • Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
  • MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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