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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: HSBC Holdings, Swire Pacific (B) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target
  • HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target

By Brian Freitas

  • In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any changes to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
  • This further delays the timeline for the index to reach 80 constituents. The earliest we will reach the target now is June 2023 (a year later than targeted).
  • Despite no changes to the index constituents, capping and float changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.61% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$5.1bn.

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
  • We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
  • 19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.

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Daily Brief ESG: Concrete Measures to Raise ROA Are Needed to Achieve Medium-Term Stock Price Outperformance and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Concrete Measures to Raise ROA Are Needed to Achieve Medium-Term Stock Price Outperformance

Concrete Measures to Raise ROA Are Needed to Achieve Medium-Term Stock Price Outperformance

By Aki Matsumoto

  • If TSE were to require companies with low P/Bs to disclose improvement measures, more companies are likely to take immediate action to increase shareholder returns.
  • Reducing equity capital is effective in raising ROE, but simply draining cash accumulated from the past through shareholder returns will not lead to long-term stock price outperformance.
  • Among the components of ROE, ROA improvement is required rather than immediate increase in financial leverage. Companies should disclose their more detailed plans to increase ROA over the medium term.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba: FY3Q23 Results Presenting An Opportunity In Disguise and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba: FY3Q23 Results Presenting An Opportunity In Disguise
  • HCG: Firing On All Cylinders – All Set For FY24 To Be A Defining Year
  • Hon Hai Precision: Nvidia Chip Partnership Shows Emerging EV Advantage, Apple Issues Improving; Buy
  • Cisco Systems Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Fortinet Inc.: Launch of FortiSP5 & Other Drivers
  • Memory Monitor: Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Technology; Nanya Relatively Over-Valued
  • Shopify Inc.: Introduction Of Commerce Components & Other Developments
  • Akamai Technologies Inc.: New Cloud Computing Services & Other Drivers
  • The Kraft Heinz Company: Major Drivers
  • Biogen Inc.: Major Drivers

Alibaba: FY3Q23 Results Presenting An Opportunity In Disguise

By Eric Chen

  • BABA’s December results highlighted how the performance of this e-commerce giant – as a proxy for China consumption – increasingly tracks Chinese economy.
  • The Alibaba that suffered from China’s slump in 2022 should also be the Alibaba that stands to reap the fruits from China’s recovery in 2023.
  • Trading at 12x PE on the cusp of economic recovery, the payoff of BABA is much better for bulls than bears. Maintain $500 billion target valuation. Buy.

HCG: Firing On All Cylinders – All Set For FY24 To Be A Defining Year

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • HCG continues to scale up well as its new centers are maturing. Its mature centers are also growing at a healthy pace.
  • Margins are improving across the board led by 1) Realization Improvement 2) Operational Efficiencies 3) Operating Leverage and 4) Improving Mix of Cases.
  • FY24 is all set to be a defining year in terms of HCG’s financial performance across growth and profitability.

Hon Hai Precision: Nvidia Chip Partnership Shows Emerging EV Advantage, Apple Issues Improving; Buy

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Latest Nvidia and Apple developments are positive signals for Hon Hai, we continue to view Hon Hai as a Structural Long and also outline a potential Long/Short.
  • The Nvidia chips Hon Hai is partnered with to use in its EV autonomous driving systems are based on 7-nm technology, thus restricted for any mainland China competitors.
  • On the Apple front, Hon Hai is also reported to have won exclusive production for the iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15 Pro Max.

Cisco Systems Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cisco Systems delivered another strong quarter, exceeding the top and bottom line expectations of analysts.
  • The company saw consecutive double-digit growth in its customer markets’ commercial and enterprise sectors, and the public sector performed better than usual.
  • We give Cisco Systems a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Fortinet Inc.: Launch of FortiSP5 & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fortinet had a mixed set of fourth-quarter results with revenues failing to meet Wall Street expectations despite market share gains.
  • The company succeeded in delivering an earnings beat and held on to its market positioning.
  • Its 42% product revenue growth has made the company one of the top product revenue companies in the cybersecurity industry.

Memory Monitor: Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Technology; Nanya Relatively Over-Valued

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Long Micron vs. Short Nanya – We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Nanya Technology based on multiple factors.
  • Relative valuation and inventory management appears to favor Micron. Nanya Technology’s inventory days blow-out increases risk of write-downs impacting its next earnings.
  • Potential news flow also appears to favor Micron as the US CHIPS Act rolls out.

Shopify Inc.: Introduction Of Commerce Components & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Shopify delivered an all-around beat in the previous quarter and ended 2022 on a positive note.
  • The company introduced Shopify Audiences, Shopify Collabs, POS Go, Tap to Pay, integrated Twitter Shopping and YouTube channels, and continued to expand the Shop app to make it simpler for retailers to interact with and develop relationships with customers.
  • They also introduced Shopify Markets and Markets Pro.

Akamai Technologies Inc.: New Cloud Computing Services & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Despite ongoing difficulties with the global economic environment, Akamai produced strong results in the fourth quarter, exceeding market expectations in terms of both, revenues as well as earnings.
  • Their rapidly expanding Compute business, the sustained high demand for their security solutions, and higher-than-anticipated shipping traffic contributed to their revenue growth.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

The Kraft Heinz Company: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kraft Heinz saw strong revenue momentum in the last quarter and managed to deliver an all-around beat with a good growth in base volumes.
  • The management claims to be outperforming the competition in food service and emerging markets.
  • In 2023, the management is looking towards expanding its marketing technology and personnel investments to propel the company’s growth.

Biogen Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Biogen delivered an all-around beat in the last result.
  • TECFIDERA generic competition, ongoing interferon declines and some pricing pressure mostly brought on this reduction.
  • Based on these positive results, they started the Phase II/III AMETHYST investigation of litifilimab in CLE.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Yokohama Rubber and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Yokohama Rubber, Mercari
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.24) – No. 1 Central Document, 8th National VBP, TCM Formula Granules
  • GEM Weekly (24 Feb 2023): South Korean Rates; Pinduoduo, JD.com, NIO, TSMC

Japan Weekly | Yokohama Rubber, Mercari

By Mark Chadwick

  • Incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament that he was in no rush to end the bank’s low interest rate policy.
  • Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 4.2% in January, a level not seen since 1981.
  • Japanese stocks ended the week down 0.2%. Tech stocks were buoyed by Advantest (+7%) and Nikon (+5%)

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.24) – No. 1 Central Document, 8th National VBP, TCM Formula Granules

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China unveiled the “No. 1 central document”, providing a good opportunity for domestic healthcare enterprises to develop rural medical market – Its market size cannot be ignored.
  • The 8th national VBP has been officially launched last week. Pfizer is the most affected of all foreign big pharma, which would have certain impact on its China business. 
  • We have noticed that the unified medical insurance code of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) formula granules is accelerating, which seems to be paving the way for the future VBP.

GEM Weekly (24 Feb 2023): South Korean Rates; Pinduoduo, JD.com, NIO, TSMC

By Wium Malan, CFA


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Daily Brief ECM: Amvis Holdings (7071) – Large-Ish Offering and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Amvis Holdings (7071) – Large-Ish Offering, Large-Ish TOPIX Inclusion
  • ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2023) – Japan Post Bank/Holding, Amvis, Pertamina, Zeekr, Honasa, Fangzhou, TVS
  • Du Pont De Nemours and Company: Major Drivers
  • Enphase Energy Inc: Acquisition of 365 Pronto & Other Drivers
  • Synopsys Inc.: Major Drivers
  • TransDigm Group: Major Drivers

Amvis Holdings (7071) – Large-Ish Offering, Large-Ish TOPIX Inclusion

By Travis Lundy

  • On Monday 20 February, nursing home, nursing and disability care services operator Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) announced it would see a Secondary Offering of 10 million shares.
  • It also announced that it would move to TSE Prime on 14 March. 
  • This increases Real World Float by quite a bit – about 40% – but it also leads to an end-April TOPIX Inclusion.

ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2023) – Japan Post Bank/Holding, Amvis, Pertamina, Zeekr, Honasa, Fangzhou, TVS

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, Pertamina Geothermal Energy‘s listing kicked of what is shaping up to be  a busy 2023 for ASEAN IPOs
  • There were a few placements across the region but the biggest news was of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s planned selldown by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) 

Du Pont De Nemours and Company: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • DuPont had a mixed fourth quarter and its revenues were below analyst expectations but the company managed to deliver an earnings beat.
  • The company has also succeeded in enhancing its grip on industrial-end markets such as healthcare and aerospace.
  • There was a strong pricing growth as well that helped mitigate the impact of inflation.

Enphase Energy Inc: Acquisition of 365 Pronto & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Enphase delivered a strong quarter driven by amazing revenues through its microinverters.
  • The company witnessed amazing growth in the gross margin as well as in the operating income.
  • The overall supply environment of the microinverters remains stable throughout the quarter.

Synopsys Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Synopsys had a strong start to the year and managed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street driven by its execution and robust technology portfolio.
  • The company saw $6.9 billion in noncancelable backlog despite slower revenue growth in the semiconductor industry and robust, steady, time-based business models.
  • Synopsys has a wide IP portfolio and they expect a continuance of designs, requiring more communication bandwidth, processing, storage, and security in ever more sophisticated silicon technologies.

TransDigm Group: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • TransDigm managed to have another strong quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
  • It was another strong quarter with healthy growth in commercial revenues and bookings.
  • We also have a dedicated analysis of the company’s Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target
  • Toshiba (6502) – Funding Unsecured!  (This Is Getting To Be a Habit)
  • HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance: Xpeng (9868) Replaces China Feihe (6186); Li Auto (2015) Biggest Gainer
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KOSPI200, SET50, SMM SP, HSI, HSCI
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Origin Energy, SATS, China Renaissance, Sembcorp Marine
  • Fujitec (6406 JP): Oasis Scores a Victory in a Tight EGM Vote
  • Dividend Record Date Changes Already in Progress in Korea: Trading Ramifications
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

HSI Index Rebalance: No Changes & Further Delays to Reaching the 80 Member Target

By Brian Freitas

  • In a surprise, the Hang Seng index committee has decided not to make any changes to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the March rebalance.
  • This further delays the timeline for the index to reach 80 constituents. The earliest we will reach the target now is June 2023 (a year later than targeted).
  • Despite no changes to the index constituents, capping and float changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.61% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$5.1bn.

Toshiba (6502) – Funding Unsecured!  (This Is Getting To Be a Habit)

By Travis Lundy

  • A Bloomberg article out Friday evening suggests the JIP Consortium funding plan submitted as the final package to Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is no longer secure.
  • Apparently Orix Corp (8591 JP), which with ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) was planning to invest equity and pref for total ¥300bn, wants to lower its investment to ¥200bn.
  • Other equity tranche participants apparently want to reduce exposure as well. 

HSCI Index Rebalance: 35 Adds, 28 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 35 adds and 28 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 527.
  • We expect 29 of the 35 inclusions to the HSCI will be added to Stock Connect, while 20 of the 28 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
  • 19 stocks could be deleted from Stock Connect only since their average market cap has dropped below HK$5bn- unless the new threshold of HK$4bn is approved in the next week.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Xpeng (9868) Replaces China Feihe (6186); Li Auto (2015) Biggest Gainer

By Brian Freitas


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: KOSPI200, SET50, SMM SP, HSI, HSCI

By Brian Freitas

  • The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) were announced post market close on Friday.
  • Busy start to the coming week with the MSCI implementation at the close on 28 February and a few announcements to other indices later in the week.
  • There were outflows from Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) during the week taking the YTD outflows to over US$1bn.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Origin Energy, SATS, China Renaissance, Sembcorp Marine

By David Blennerhassett

  • There is no good reason to buy Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s dip until the offering. It’s unlikely to earn the ROE to deserve the PBR it has versus peers.
  • Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean’s revised NBIO will garner Origin Energy (ORG AU) board support; however, the terms are weird and unfair to investors holding fewer than 100k shares. 
  • SATS (SATS SP) rights offer is not actually a surprise. Not at all. Passive funds will exercise. 

Fujitec (6406 JP): Oasis Scores a Victory in a Tight EGM Vote

By Arun George

  • At the Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) EGM, Oasis successfully secured approval for four out of six candidates for outside directors. The tight vote shows that shareholders desire change.
  • Oasis fell short of its nominations constituting up to two-thirds of the Board. However, Oasis-aligned directors will represent 67% of outside directors which still can drive meaningful change.
  • The EGM results will spur optimism that Fujitec can close the performance gap with peers, resulting in a rerating. Fujitec remains attractive on a cash-adjusted P/E basis.    

Dividend Record Date Changes Already in Progress in Korea: Trading Ramifications

By Sanghyun Park

  • Notable names that have proposed amendments to their articles of association for changing the dividend record date at this year’s AGM include Hyundai Motor Group, POSCO Holdings, and Kakao Corp.
  • There were skeptical views on how much response local big-name companies would show to Korea FSC’s plan. However, the response from large companies has been unexpectedly positive and aggressive.
  • We should consider the possibility that the preferred stock premium of companies whose dividend visibility has improved through this may continue to improve compared to those that have not.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Macro: Global Liquidity Update – Is US Fed QT Dead? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Liquidity Update – Is US Fed QT Dead?
  • Global Liquidity – Is China Squeezing Or Easing Liquidity Again?

Global Liquidity Update – Is US Fed QT Dead?

By Michael J. Howell

  • Global Liquidity is projected to rise in 2023 after last year’s tumble, but after its recent surge are we seeing a material pull-back?
  • UK gilt crisis in September was a wake-up call. In the 23 following weeks, US Fed liquidity has flat-lined not fallen. US monetary policy is bifurcating
  • Deteriorating US fiscal position will place huge demands for more QE. Between now and 2023 the Fed balance sheet could double in size. QT is dead in America

Global Liquidity – Is China Squeezing Or Easing Liquidity Again?

By Michael J. Howell

  • China’s PBoC injected a whopping RMB 3 trillion (US$450 billion) into money markets through December and January
  • Latest data show sharp fall-off in Chinese liquidity from late-February. Nonetheless, it is hard to extrapolate much from this. 2023 still looks to be a year of much more liquidity
  • The close connection between the PBoC and Chinese business points to a stronger Chinese and World economy in the second half of 2023. Buy cyclicals?

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Daily Brief Australia: Alkane Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alkane Resources – Tomingley Gold Extension Project approved

Alkane Resources – Tomingley Gold Extension Project approved

By Edison Investment Research

As expected, the NSW Minister for Planning has approved Alkane’s Tomingley Gold Extension Project, allowing both open-cut mining at the Roswell and San Antonio deposits (including underground mining at the former) and extending the mine life to 2032. The approval accepts a processing rate of up to 1.75Mtpa, with underground mining due to commence at Roswell before the end of CY23. Financing has been secured via A$50m of debt funding from Macquarie Bank, together with 100koz of gold hedging at a weighted average price of A$2,825/oz (US$1,928/oz).


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Daily Brief Singapore: Grab Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Follows Suit with GoTo and Accelerates Profitability Timeline

Grab Follows Suit with GoTo and Accelerates Profitability Timeline

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Grab reported 4Q2022 results yesterday. Q4 revenue more than quadrupled to $502m (vs consensus $403.48) while reported a negative adjusted EBITDA of $111m (vs consensus $137m) vs $305m in 4Q2021.
  • Deliveries business went on to report positive adjusted EBITDA driven by improvement in take rate coupled with reduction in total incentives.
  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) share price dropped 8.29% at the end of yesterday’s trade despite the company accelerating its profit timeline to breakeven in 4Q2023 vs 2H2024 previously.

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Daily Brief India: IdeaForge Technology Limited, Zee Entertainment Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • IdeaForge Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Zee Entertainment- Litigations Scare

IdeaForge Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • IdeaForge Technology Limited (1475641D IN) is looking to raise around US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. Some of its notable pre-IPO investors include Qualcomm, Infosys, Celesta Capital (VC).
  • IdeaForge develops and manufactures unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).
  • The bookrunners on the deal are JM Financial and IIFL Securities.

Zee Entertainment- Litigations Scare

By Nitin Mangal

  • Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN) have yet again been bombarded with a corporate hurdle since the NCLT has admitted the company into CIRP relating to Siti Cable Network (SITINET IN).
  • It is found that ZEEL has created provisions in the balance sheet, however it should be noted that the CRIP might lead to cash outflow in future. 
  • Apart from the current CIRP, ZEEL also has other litigation risks that should not be overlooked.

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