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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 2/6
  • Global Semiconductor Sales Increase 3.2% YoY In 2022

Good Morning Japan | Spy Balloons?? SPX Holds; Google Responds with BARD; BOJ AMAMIYA Story Refuted!

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS.  SPX Pulls Back for 2nd day as Spy Balloons dominate – mkts just stretched;  Google responds to ChatGPT with BARD; Dell cuts headcount as PC struggle continues
  • JAPAN. NKY Fut flat vs Cash; USDJPY 132.63; Govt denies BOJ-Amamiya claim(really !); Son to skip Softban earnings call; Masa Takafumi wins Grammy with Sakura!
  • DAILY NUGGET. MHI  formalizes exit from Spacejet. No surprise as it has been on ice for 2 years.   Opportunity to put a positive spin on the $7bn failure.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 2/6

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • According to BeSpoke investment firm research, the top 10% of the most heavily shorted stocks are up an average of 36.3% so far this year.
  • This includes troubled retailer Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) whose shares surged by more than 18% Thursday, a day after they missed a Feb. 1 interest payment and warned that it might file for bankruptcy within weeks.
  • Other stocks like online car dealer Carvana and any company which has anything remotely associated with artificial intelligence (AI) have seen similar spikes.

Global Semiconductor Sales Increase 3.2% YoY In 2022

By Semicon Alpha

  • According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global semiconductor industry sales totaled $573.5 billion in 2022, the highest-ever annual total and an increase of 3.2% compared to the 2021 total of $555.9 billion.
  • Monthly semiconductor sales peaked in May of 2022, reaching an all time high of %51.
  • This marked the culmination of almost two years of sequential monthly semiconductor sales growth, driven in large part by the pandemic-driven return to growth in both PC and smartphone unit sales.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold
  • Korea: Upcoming Changes to Dividend Rules & Implications
  • Korea NPS Reportedly Finalized Additional 50 KOSPI Stocks in Its BM for Direct Management
  • Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs
  • Renault & Nissan Deal Done: Still a Trading Nothing🍔 So Far, OK Framework but Need Shaq Fingerguns
  • Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer
  • Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP): Unconditional Offer at S$0.90 from Boustead Singapore
  • Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP): JPY4,460 MBO Tender Offer from Carlyle
  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

By David Blennerhassett

  • Newmont Mining (NEM US), the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Australia’s largest listed gold company.  
  • The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.
  • The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.

Korea: Upcoming Changes to Dividend Rules & Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • On 31 January, Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Ministry of Justice announced plans to improve rules regarding dividends to bring them in line with international standards.
  • Companies will be able to decide the dividend amount prior to the record dates for quarterly dividends, while the ex-date of the final dividend will be post the AGM.
  • This was one of the issues highlighted by MSCI for Korea’s upgrade from EM to DM. There are also implications for the KOSPI200 futures basis and futures rolls.

Korea NPS Reportedly Finalized Additional 50 KOSPI Stocks in Its BM for Direct Management

By Sanghyun Park

  • NPS said it would add 50 KOSPI stocks to KOSPI 200 for direct management. However, the key was when this would be implemented and which ones would be included.
  • SBS, one of Korea’s major networks, exclusively reported that NPS finalized the constituent stocks of the NPS-KR250 and started rebalancing trading on the 50 additional KOSPI stocks from January.
  • Hence, tracing and identifying who these additional 50 KOSPI stocks are is becoming the hottest topic in Korea’s local market at this point.

Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&P ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, 300 in the run up to the March 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be one change for ASX 20 and one change for ASX 100 while ASX 200 could see four ADDs/DELs.
  • For ASX 300, there could be 15 ADDs and 12 DELs in the March 2023 Rebalance including some high impact names based on days-to-trade.

Renault & Nissan Deal Done: Still a Trading Nothing🍔 So Far, OK Framework but Need Shaq Fingerguns

By Travis Lundy

  • As “disclosed” recently, we have a deal. Nissan Motor (7201 JP) will invest “up to 15%” in Ampere. Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) may join. They have many potential joint projects.
  • The key is the Governance Framework, which replaces RAMA. Renault SA (RNO FP) puts 28.4% of Nissan in an open-ended Trust. Renault and Nissan have 15% reciprocal voting rights.
  • The webcast is more optimistic than I am. Luca de Meo made special mention of the joint projects. This sounds good. It sounds like what has always been promised.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer

By Arun George

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) confirmed a non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.380 Newmont shares per Newcrest share. 
  • The offer values Newcrest at a discount to Tier 1 gold producer EV/Resource multiples. Also, the offer carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.
  • The offer underscores Newcrest’s value and helps the Board seek better terms. There is a possibility of a counterbid from other Tier 1 producers such as Barrick Gold (GOLD US).

Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP): Unconditional Offer at S$0.90 from Boustead Singapore

By Arun George

  • Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)/BPL has disclosed a voluntary unconditional offer from Boustead Singapore Limited (BOCS SP) at S$0.90 per share, a 7.8% premium to the undisturbed price (3 February).
  • The offer price is unattractive in comparison to peer multiples, historical trading ranges and precedent transactions. However, the offer price is not final.
  • As Boustead Singapore aims to privatise BPL there is a possibility of a bump. The offer document will be despatched and the offer opens by 27 February.

Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP): JPY4,460 MBO Tender Offer from Carlyle

By Arun George

  • Iwasaki Electric (6924 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer, sponsored by Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), of JPY4,460 per share, an 86.1% premium to the undisturbed price (6 February).
  • The transaction is a two-step acquisition through a cash tender offer and subsequent squeeze-out. The lower limit of the offer has been set to meet the 66.67% ownership ratio.
  • The tender offer is attractive and represents a ten-year share price high. This suggests a done deal. The tender offer period is from 7 February to 22 March.

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

By Brian Freitas


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Daily Brief Macro: Positioning Watch – A Turn to Fund Flows and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Positioning Watch – A Turn to Fund Flows
  • February Market Thinking
  • AFC Iraq Fund January 2023 Update: “Market Begins to Discount Currency Upheavals”
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – SCBX Transformed, Ace Hardware Time, and Pertamina Geo IPO
  • Asset Watch: From a Recession to a Soft Landing to a Raging Boom in Just One Week
  • Major Commodity Fund Outflows Continue in January

Positioning Watch – A Turn to Fund Flows

By Andreas Steno

  • We stay net long equities but remain on high alert for a potential “crowdening” of the view
  • Crowded EUR longs makes for decent risk/reward in JPY and AUD versus the USD
  • Stay long copper, shy away from gold and ponder some risk in long palladium. Energy longs remain saturated. 

February Market Thinking

By Mark Tinker

  • January started the year strong in markets as the mean reversion trades we suggested likely in our year ahead piece all seem to have happened, with markets in January producing pretty much the inverse of 2022, in other words a month in which almost everything went up, except for the $, as shown in the following chart, courtesy of Redburn.
  • Last year, the traders beat the asset allocators hands down.
  • So far this year, it’s the other way around, with some extremely painful moves for some of the short term traders and some welcome relief for the 60:40 crowd.

AFC Iraq Fund January 2023 Update: “Market Begins to Discount Currency Upheavals”

By Asia Frontier Capital

  • The AFC Iraq Fund was down 0.5% in January, outperforming its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index, which was down 5.0% for the month.
  • For the third month in a row, the decline in the parallel market’s price of the Iraqi Dinar (IQD) versus the US Dollar (USD) negatively affected the market’s performance by reversing the index’s 5.5% increase in IQD terms to a decline of 5.0% in USD terms, and the fund’s 9.0% increase in IQD terms into a 0.5% decline in USD terms.
  • However, unlike the prior two months, the market has started looking through and discounting the currency’s volatility as seen from the market action and, in particular, those of banks and industrial stocks – two groups that stand out as net beneficiaries of the depreciation of the market price of the IQD vs the USD.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – SCBX Transformed, Ace Hardware Time, and Pertamina Geo IPO

By Angus Mackintosh


Asset Watch: From a Recession to a Soft Landing to a Raging Boom in Just One Week

By Andreas Steno

  • Economic data is currently all over the place, but the bottom-line is clear – no recession yet
  • This is in sharp contrast to sentiment entering 2023 and not least positioning
  • Will the market continue to rally due to the “postponed” recession fears?

Major Commodity Fund Outflows Continue in January

By The Commodity Report

  • Glencore said last week that its copper production fell 12% in 2022.
  • The miner and trader said it produced 1.06 million tonnes of copper last year and kept its 2023 outlook unchanged at around 1.04 million tonnes.
  • Many miners revise their copper output lower, as extreme weather, labor issues, or lower grades have caused companies to deal with problems and limit the output accordingly.

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Daily Brief Crypto: What to Watch in 2023 and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • What to Watch in 2023
  • CEL Token Inflated By Insiders

What to Watch in 2023

By Etherbridge

  • Investors will remember 2022 as the first real credit crisis that bitcoin and the broader crypto space have suffered. In historical terms, it was a significant year.
  • The ensuing deleveraging eliminated many entities that got overzealous in the bull market and didn’t adjust their strategies to new market conditions.
  • Almost the entirety of those now-insolvent entities were centralised conduits to the world of blockchain and digital assets. 

CEL Token Inflated By Insiders

By Kaiko

  • Price Movements: DYDX has rallied 130% since the decentralized exchange announced they would postpone a planned unlock for the token. 
  • Market Liquidity: BUSD’s market share has held steady since Binance admitted to mismanaging reserves.
  • Derivatives: The open interest to market cap ratio suggests Optimism’s OP token is highly leveraged. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Tod’s: Failed Privatization Provides Red Carpet for LVMH Bid and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Tod’s: Failed Privatization Provides Red Carpet for LVMH Bid
  • Ambuja Cements – Quick Insight on Valuation
  • Com2uS Corp: The Most Likely Corporate Activist Target in Korea’s Game Industry
  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK/688180 CH): US Approval of Toripalimab Is Still In Doldrums
  • PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?
  • Meta Platforms: Q4 Earnings Update, Our Approach Now
  • Hugo Boss: Self-Help Growth Story
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): New Launches & Other Drivers
  • BetMakers Technology Group Ltd – Turning Point
  • IMMR: Rumbles of a Special Sit, Initiating

Tod’s: Failed Privatization Provides Red Carpet for LVMH Bid

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Tod’s founder Diego Della Valle is undoubtedly frustrated his bid to privatize Tod’s at 40 EUR failed in 4Q22
  • It was the ideal time to privatize in order to maximize value for his family before selling to LVMH, the most logical buyer since 2017
  • Our conviction that Tod’s ends up in the LVMH stable of brands is stronger than ever, an exit offer of 60 EUR per share would be a reasonable assumption

Ambuja Cements – Quick Insight on Valuation

By Nurture Capital Advisory

  • Cement sector is witnessing a margin recovery and valuations are reasonable. 
  • Ambuja Cements, the second largest in the sector provides a tactical opportunity for a valuation pop. 
  • Avoid | as any inclusion amounts to adding to the risk rather than to the return of the portfolio. 

Com2uS Corp: The Most Likely Corporate Activist Target in Korea’s Game Industry

By Douglas Kim

  • Com2us Corp (078340 KS) is the most likely corporate activist target in Korea’s game industry.
  • Our base case valuation of Com2uS suggests a target price of 97,321 won which is 49% higher than current price.
  • Finally, the company is expected to launch at least 3-4 promising new games this year. All in all, we have a positive view of Com2uS Corp. 

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK/688180 CH): US Approval of Toripalimab Is Still In Doldrums

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH) did not receive FDA approval for toripalimab in US, as the agency could not conduct on-site inspection of the company’s manufacturing facility for the drug.
  • Toripalimab (branded as TUOYI) is showing decelerated revenue growth rate in China. Besides being approved for small patient population, TUOYI has seen reduction in price after being included in NRDL.
  • In May 2022, the company launched adalimumab biosimilar in China. It marks a late entry in a highly competitive market. COVID-19 oral drug should not bode well for the company.

PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • PICC P&C was a shelter for investors in 2022, as its earnings were largely shielded from the pandemic. However, momentum has shifted in favor of the rest of the sector.
  • As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock’s performance to recouple to the broader H-Financials index. 
  • Valuation is undemanding, but the same can be said of almost any other stock in the space. If the HKD7.25/share resistance level breaks, we may see a major correction.

Meta Platforms: Q4 Earnings Update, Our Approach Now

By Moat Investing

  • Meta announced its Q4 earnings, exceeding expectations on the top line by 1.5%, but falling short on the bottom line by 20.8%.
  • The key highlights from the announcement included an increase in share buybacks, reductions in capital expenditures, and a lowered outlook for operating expenses.
  • Since the release of new earnings by Meta (NASDAQ:META), we have been following up on our last report, which got a very positive response.

Hugo Boss: Self-Help Growth Story

By Alexis Dwek

  • Under the new leadership led by CEO Daniel Grieder, Hugo Boss’s new refreshed brand has been gaining market share over the last few quarters
  • Growth has been driven by strong marketing campaigns aimed at younger consumers and an improved execution.
  • Hugo Boss is a self-help growth story with further margin expansion potential. Valuation remains appealing at these levels and should re-rate in line with the sector. Upside 15%

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): New Launches & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AMD had a strong quarter and managed an all-around beat despite the fact that the company navigated quite a challenging macro environment.
  • The company also launched the Ryzen 7000 mobile APUs, RX 7000 laptop GPUs, and V-cache chips.
  • For the company’s Xilinx data center as well as networking products, AMD had strong sales in the quarter.

BetMakers Technology Group Ltd – Turning Point

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • BetMakers Technology Group (ASX:BET) is a B2B software services business providing racing, wagering and integrity data, software and hardware products to bookmakers, racing authorities and rights holders globally.
  • BET announced a significant restructure of its senior management team and board with the appointment of the company’s largest shareholder and gaming tech investor Matt Davey to the position of President and Executive Chairman; the transition of Chairman Nick Chan to Non-Executive Director; the promotion of COO Jake Henson to the position of Chief Executive Officer and the appointment of CEO Todd Buckingham to Chief Growth Officer.
  • Mr Buckingham also steps down from the board and has surrendered 10m of his performance rights. 

IMMR: Rumbles of a Special Sit, Initiating

By Hamed Khorsand

  • We are initiating coverage of Immersion (IMMR) with a Buy Rating and $11 target
  • IMMR is a haptics technology developer that has undergone a management change that could further result in a series of material developments
  • IMMR naming Eric Singer as its CEO suggests there is more to come from IMMR than the cost cuts IMMR undertook two years ago when Mr. Singer joined the Board

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Daily Brief United States: Bitcoin, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Advanced Micro Devices, Immersion Corporation, New Ruipeng Pet Group, Natural Gas, Ubiquiti Inc., Celsius Network, General Motors, Edwards Lifesciences and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • What to Watch in 2023
  • Meta Platforms: Q4 Earnings Update, Our Approach Now
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): New Launches & Other Drivers
  • IMMR: Rumbles of a Special Sit, Initiating
  • New Ruipeng Pet Group IPO: Struggling Pet Hospital Operator. Hard To Justify Premium Valuation
  • Major Commodity Fund Outflows Continue in January
  • UI: Margin Rebound with Revenue Growth
  • CEL Token Inflated By Insiders
  • General Motors Company: EV Plant In Canada & Other Developments
  • Edwards Lifesciences: Sapien-3 Ultra Resilia Valve Launch & Other Developments

What to Watch in 2023

By Etherbridge

  • Investors will remember 2022 as the first real credit crisis that bitcoin and the broader crypto space have suffered. In historical terms, it was a significant year.
  • The ensuing deleveraging eliminated many entities that got overzealous in the bull market and didn’t adjust their strategies to new market conditions.
  • Almost the entirety of those now-insolvent entities were centralised conduits to the world of blockchain and digital assets. 

Meta Platforms: Q4 Earnings Update, Our Approach Now

By Moat Investing

  • Meta announced its Q4 earnings, exceeding expectations on the top line by 1.5%, but falling short on the bottom line by 20.8%.
  • The key highlights from the announcement included an increase in share buybacks, reductions in capital expenditures, and a lowered outlook for operating expenses.
  • Since the release of new earnings by Meta (NASDAQ:META), we have been following up on our last report, which got a very positive response.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): New Launches & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AMD had a strong quarter and managed an all-around beat despite the fact that the company navigated quite a challenging macro environment.
  • The company also launched the Ryzen 7000 mobile APUs, RX 7000 laptop GPUs, and V-cache chips.
  • For the company’s Xilinx data center as well as networking products, AMD had strong sales in the quarter.

IMMR: Rumbles of a Special Sit, Initiating

By Hamed Khorsand

  • We are initiating coverage of Immersion (IMMR) with a Buy Rating and $11 target
  • IMMR is a haptics technology developer that has undergone a management change that could further result in a series of material developments
  • IMMR naming Eric Singer as its CEO suggests there is more to come from IMMR than the cost cuts IMMR undertook two years ago when Mr. Singer joined the Board

New Ruipeng Pet Group IPO: Struggling Pet Hospital Operator. Hard To Justify Premium Valuation

By Andrei Zakharov

  • New Ruipeng Pet Group, a China-based pet clinic operator and provider of pet care services, filed for a U.S. IPO. The company plans to list ADSs under the ticker “RPET.”
  • The company’s most recent private round was a $500M venture round led by Boehringer Ingelheim and Tencent at a ~$4.4B valuation in September 2020. 
  • We believe investors should think twice before investing in the New Ruipeng IPO as the pet hospital operator struggled to grow revenues, operating losses mounted, and labor costs increased.

Major Commodity Fund Outflows Continue in January

By The Commodity Report

  • Glencore said last week that its copper production fell 12% in 2022.
  • The miner and trader said it produced 1.06 million tonnes of copper last year and kept its 2023 outlook unchanged at around 1.04 million tonnes.
  • Many miners revise their copper output lower, as extreme weather, labor issues, or lower grades have caused companies to deal with problems and limit the output accordingly.

UI: Margin Rebound with Revenue Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Ubiquiti (UI) reported fiscal second quarter (December) results affirming our expectations of the enterprise segment being the source of growth
  • Ubiquiti has introduced several new products lines over the past two years, which we believe are becoming an important part of the revenue story
  • The product mix and reduced shipping costs resulted in Ubiquiti reporting gross margin of 40 percent. This is the first time in four quarters gross margin reached 40 percent

CEL Token Inflated By Insiders

By Kaiko

  • Price Movements: DYDX has rallied 130% since the decentralized exchange announced they would postpone a planned unlock for the token. 
  • Market Liquidity: BUSD’s market share has held steady since Binance admitted to mismanaging reserves.
  • Derivatives: The open interest to market cap ratio suggests Optimism’s OP token is highly leveraged. 

General Motors Company: EV Plant In Canada & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • General Motors managed to deliver an all-around beat in the recent result with an increase in the market share and record ATPs.
  • In the commercial fleet business, the company gained a profitable, considerable market share.
  • We provide the stock of General Motors with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

Edwards Lifesciences: Sapien-3 Ultra Resilia Valve Launch & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Despite the healthcare disruptions in several key geographies, Edwards Lifesciences delivered a good result surpassing the analyst consensus estimates in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • In the quarter Edwards made a series of some external investments in several promising early-stage technologies.
  • We provide the stock of Edwards Lifesciences with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

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Daily Brief Australia: Newcrest Mining, Omni Bridgeway, BetMakers Technology Group, Actinogen Medical and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold
  • Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs
  • Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer
  • BetMakers Technology Group Ltd – Turning Point
  • Actinogen Medical – On track to start Phase IIb XanaMIA study

Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold

By David Blennerhassett

  • Newmont Mining (NEM US), the world’s largest gold miner, has pitched a non-binding, all-scrip proposal for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Australia’s largest listed gold company.  
  • The proposal offers 0.38 Newmont shares for every Newcrest share, or an indicative Offer price of A$27.16/share, a 21% premium to last close. An earlier proposal from Newmont was rejected.
  • The proposal is subject to a raft of conditions, including granting of exclusivity to Newmont, due diligence, Newmont shareholder approval, and regulatory approvals, including FIRB.

Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&P ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, 300 in the run up to the March 2023 Rebalance.
  • There could be one change for ASX 20 and one change for ASX 100 while ASX 200 could see four ADDs/DELs.
  • For ASX 300, there could be 15 ADDs and 12 DELs in the March 2023 Rebalance including some high impact names based on days-to-trade.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU): Newmont’s Light All-Scrip Offer

By Arun George

  • Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) confirmed a non-binding indicative privatisation proposal from Newmont Mining (NEM US) at 0.380 Newmont shares per Newcrest share. 
  • The offer values Newcrest at a discount to Tier 1 gold producer EV/Resource multiples. Also, the offer carries the volatility risk around Newmont shares and FX rates.
  • The offer underscores Newcrest’s value and helps the Board seek better terms. There is a possibility of a counterbid from other Tier 1 producers such as Barrick Gold (GOLD US).

BetMakers Technology Group Ltd – Turning Point

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • BetMakers Technology Group (ASX:BET) is a B2B software services business providing racing, wagering and integrity data, software and hardware products to bookmakers, racing authorities and rights holders globally.
  • BET announced a significant restructure of its senior management team and board with the appointment of the company’s largest shareholder and gaming tech investor Matt Davey to the position of President and Executive Chairman; the transition of Chairman Nick Chan to Non-Executive Director; the promotion of COO Jake Henson to the position of Chief Executive Officer and the appointment of CEO Todd Buckingham to Chief Growth Officer.
  • Mr Buckingham also steps down from the board and has surrendered 10m of his performance rights. 

Actinogen Medical – On track to start Phase IIb XanaMIA study

By Edison Investment Research

Actinogen’s recent quarterly update confirmed that the company remains on track to start US recruitment in H1 CY23 for its six-month, placebo-controlled Phase IIb portion of the XanaMIA study. The study is designed to assess the safety and efficacy of Xanamem in a population of patients with mild cognitive impairment (CI) and mild Alzheimer’s disease (AD), who at baseline will have been confirmed as biomarker-positive for AD (as determined through elevated blood phosphorylated Tau, or pTau). The company also started enrolment in Q4 CY22 for its XanaCIDD Phase IIa study assessing Xanamem in patients with CI relating to persistent depression despite ongoing treatment with standard-of-care medications. We expect the next material clinical data milestone for the company will be the XanaCIDD results, due in late CY23 or early CY24.


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Daily Brief India: Ambuja Cements and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Ambuja Cements – Quick Insight on Valuation

Ambuja Cements – Quick Insight on Valuation

By Nurture Capital Advisory

  • Cement sector is witnessing a margin recovery and valuations are reasonable. 
  • Ambuja Cements, the second largest in the sector provides a tactical opportunity for a valuation pop. 
  • Avoid | as any inclusion amounts to adding to the risk rather than to the return of the portfolio. 

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Daily Brief Thailand: Delta Electronics Thai and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Waiting for a Reversal

By Brian Freitas


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief China: Tencent, Pinduoduo, Shanghai Junshi Bioscience, PICC Property & Casualty H, Greentown China, Zhejiang Hangke Technology-A, Remegen Co Ltd, Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Internet Weekly (6Feb2023): Tencent, JD.com, Microsoft
  • EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) — Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106
  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK/688180 CH): US Approval of Toripalimab Is Still In Doldrums
  • PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Greentown China
  • Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) – Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity
  • Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) – There’s Expectation Difference in Valuation; Trading Opportunity Occurs
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO – Should Turnaround once COVID Is Over

China Internet Weekly (6Feb2023): Tencent, JD.com, Microsoft

By Ming Lu

  • WeChat Usage increased by 23% YoY in physical store during Chinese New Year holidays.
  • JD.com will close its e-commerce platforms in Indonesia and Thailand in March.
  • Microsoft denies a layoff plan in China, but the details of the plan are spreading.

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) — Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
  • As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
  • China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK/688180 CH): US Approval of Toripalimab Is Still In Doldrums

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH) did not receive FDA approval for toripalimab in US, as the agency could not conduct on-site inspection of the company’s manufacturing facility for the drug.
  • Toripalimab (branded as TUOYI) is showing decelerated revenue growth rate in China. Besides being approved for small patient population, TUOYI has seen reduction in price after being included in NRDL.
  • In May 2022, the company launched adalimumab biosimilar in China. It marks a late entry in a highly competitive market. COVID-19 oral drug should not bode well for the company.

PICC P&C (2328 HK): Performance Recoupling; Breaking Support at HKD7.25?

By Stanley Tsai, CFA

  • PICC P&C was a shelter for investors in 2022, as its earnings were largely shielded from the pandemic. However, momentum has shifted in favor of the rest of the sector.
  • As the reopening story tails off, we expect the stock’s performance to recouple to the broader H-Financials index. 
  • Valuation is undemanding, but the same can be said of almost any other stock in the space. If the HKD7.25/share resistance level breaks, we may see a major correction.

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Greentown China

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) – Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • January completed a bullish 3 month reversal pattern in 688006 CH and thus confirmed a likely MT bottom.
  • 688006 CH has had an incredible pivotal relationship with its 50 week MA since 2020. A weekly close above the 50 week MA will confirm a high probability MT uptrend.

Remegen Co Ltd (9995.HK) – There’s Expectation Difference in Valuation; Trading Opportunity Occurs

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • RemeGen’s revenue declined in 22H2, leading to lower-than-expected performance last year.However, 2022’s low base is good for the growth this year,especially when non-COVID treatment returns to normal after China reopens. 
  • We analyzed our revenue forecast on RC48 and RC18. We don’t think there should be big difference between the market value of RemeGen and Akeso. So, RemeGen’s valuation is attractive.
  • The sentiment in HKEX has changed this year, so the trading strategy should be different. The pullback could be a buying opportunity, especially for good biotech companies such as RemeGen.

Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials Pre-IPO – Should Turnaround once COVID Is Over

By Ethan Aw

  • Greatpower Nickel & Cobalt Materials (1919613D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Greatpower Nickel and Cobalt Materials (GNCM) is a supplier of new energy battery materials in China, with a dual focus on nickel and cobalt for the production of cathode materials. 
  • The firm has made itself one of the top Chinese players in terms of cobalt refining by sales volume and nickel by trading volume. However, its profitability was significantly impacted. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
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