Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Market sees this as an M&A play, not just de-leveraging. Sentiment’s split, and despite a tight discount, uncertainty on take-up could spark major dislocations in stock and rights.
Hanwha’s ₩3.6T raise drops just a week after Samsung SDI’s ₩2T—₩5.5T back-to-back. Absorption looks brutal, setting up serious volatility and prime trading opps if liquidity tightens.
The FSC fast-tracked this, flagging it instantly but also hinting approval. With regulator risk off, any cash market snapback tomorrow should stay in check.

Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.
We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.
It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector.

CoreWeave (CRWV): Valuation, Cash Raise Lighter than Expected as Company Pushes Ahead with IPO

By IPO Boutique

CoreWeave (CRWV US) officially set terms for an IPO on Thursday morning coming in with a valuation and cash raise that was much lower than previously reported.
Furthermore, the underwriters placed a wider-than-normal spread on the range, $47-$55. This insinuates a negotiation process between the buy-side.
The valuation coming in lower than anticipated will allow investors to put money to work at a more attractive risk-reward profile.

EAAA India Pre-IPO – Quality Management Fee Stream but Future AUM Raising Could Be Difficult

By Nicholas Tan

EAAA India Alternatives Ltd (1619210D IN) is planning to raise about US$177m through its upcoming India IPO.
It is one of the leading alternatives platforms in India, with AUM of INR 572.62bn (US$6.63bn), as of 9M24, amassing 15 years of experience.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Intel. Mr. Tan’s Greatest Challenge Is Not Process Or Foundry Leadership. It’s Something Far Bigger and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Intel. Mr. Tan’s Greatest Challenge Is Not Process Or Foundry Leadership. It’s Something Far Bigger
NVDA’s ‘Quantum Day’ Fails to Live up to the Hype. Micron Beats, and Softbank Acquires Ampere.
The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28
Watsco: Air Apparent – [Business Breakdowns, EP.209]
Bajaj Finance (BAF): Robust Growth in Place
Micron 2QF25 Earnings Call Positive, But Tread with Caution
Link REIT (823 HK)
Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Mar-2025): Taiwan server revenue forecast 2025.
Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q24, Not Slowdown, Still Advantage in Low Price Market, 70% Upside
Geely Auto (175 HK): 2024 Result Accelerating, 50% Upside

Intel. Mr. Tan’s Greatest Challenge Is Not Process Or Foundry Leadership. It’s Something Far Bigger

By William Keating

Whether Intel can achieve Process or Foundry leadership in a credible timeframe is something Mr. Tan has relatively little control over in the short term.
His most pressing challenge will be to address the corporate culture of entitlement that’s rife throughout the company, starting with the BoD
Measure his success by the number of high profile resignations we see in the coming months. Those who created Intel’s problems cannot be the ones to fix them.

NVDA’s ‘Quantum Day’ Fails to Live up to the Hype. Micron Beats, and Softbank Acquires Ampere.

By Andrew Jackson

Huang throws cold water on a potential TSMC led deal for INTC fab business, saying he ‘wasn’t invited’ to any discussions.
Micron guidance beats consensus which should be a positive for related names such as Micronics.
CoWoS and advanced packing maker Shibaura Mechtronics raised guidance on Wednesday ahead of street, yet stock still trading around recent lows points to further upside.

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN), established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.
In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company’s current performance.
Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.

Watsco: Air Apparent – [Business Breakdowns, EP.209]

By Business Breakdowns

Watsco is North America’s largest distributor of HVAC equipment, serving as a crucial link between manufacturers and contractors.
They offer a wide range of equipment and parts, technical expertise, and value-added services to their contractor customers.
Watsco’s transformation from manufacturer to distributor in 1989 led to significant growth, with consistent annualized shareholder returns over the years.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Robust Growth in Place

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance Ltd (“BAF”) reported a strong Q3FY25 led by good volume growth and AUM growth. It saw highest ever new loans at 12.06mm. AUM growth was INR 24119cr.
Despite elevated credit costs for peers, BAF has been relatively insulated and reported steady asset quality. ROA and Opex were also steady at around 4.5% and 33%, respectively.
In line with BAF’s long-range strategy, BAF is increasingly adopting AI to improve productivity. As part of this, BAF unveiled a BFL 3.0 FINAI company.

Micron 2QF25 Earnings Call Positive, But Tread with Caution

By Jim Handy

Micron’s strong HBM and Data Center growth has nearly offset low revenues in the remainder of the company’s business.
This HBM growth depends heavily upon continued strength in hyperscale data center AI CapEx
Micron outlined means to maintain stability in its industry, but China semiconductor goals are in conflict with these measures

Link REIT (823 HK)

By Michael Fritzell

The largest REIT in Asia, with enough liquidity for most funds. Has a great set of neighborhood malls across Hong Kong enjoying recurring income from food & beverage, restaurants, etc
Suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic but DPU has started growing again. Rights issue a misstep but the leverage is now acceptable. New Blackrock CIO bodes well for M&A.
REIT trades at 7% yield vs 4% historically. Essentially an interest rate bet. Will probably be included in the Stock Connect program soon, expect an announcement on 19 April.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (21-Mar-2025): Taiwan server revenue forecast 2025.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Taiwan server revenue and shipment forecast for 2025 is expected to increase, reflecting growth in the IT industry.
Japanese government plans to invest $1 billion in Space Strategy Fund projects, highlighting a push for innovation and exploration in the aerospace sector.
SoftBank’s $6.5B Ampere acquisition is a strategic move in the AI chip market with Arm, positioning the company for future technological advancements.

Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q24, Not Slowdown, Still Advantage in Low Price Market, 70% Upside

By Ming Lu

PDD’s total revenue grew by 24% YoY in 4Q24, with advertising up by 17% YoY and commission up by 33% YoY.
The gross margin declined YoY, but we still believe PDD has advantage in the low price market.
We conclude an upside of 71% and a price target of US$215 for the next twelve months.

Geely Auto (175 HK): 2024 Result Accelerating, 50% Upside

By Ming Lu

Total revenue increased by 34% and total sales volume increased by 32%.
The operating margin improved to 4% in 2024, compared to 2% in 2023.
We conclude an upside of 51% and a price target of HK$28.00. Buy.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief Macro: BoE Dove Beaten Into Submission and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

BoE Dove Beaten Into Submission
UK: Tight Jobs Market Persists Into 2025
How high gold prices are fueling a chocolate shortage
Indonesia’s Middle-Class Squeeze a Long Time Coming
Asian Equities: The Currency Tailwind – Where Would FII Flows Gravitate?
Weather, Tapper Shortage Weigh Down Malaysia NR Production
CX Daily: China’s Soaring Overland Trade Accelerates Cross-Border Rail Projects
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Mar 2025
SNB: 25bp Rate Cut To 0.25% (Consensus 0.25%) in Mar-25
Sweden: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in Mar-25

BoE Dove Beaten Into Submission

By Phil Rush

The BoE unsurprisingly held its policy rate at 4.5% in March, preserving its gradual easing path after resilient recent data. Only one MPC member dissented for a 25bp cut.
Catherine Mann did not carry the extra 25bp of easing she supported from February to March. Her hyperactive vote relied on so little spurious evidence it was swiftly falsified.
Core members emphasise the lack of a predetermined path, raising the hurdle to a May cut, but this remains the most likely outcome, even if it may require a rapid reversal.

UK: Tight Jobs Market Persists Into 2025

By Phil Rush

Unemployment remained at 4.4% in January amid rapid employment growth. Recent data suggest that the unemployment rate will likely decline over the next few months.
Regular wage growth adhered to its 0.4% m-o-m trend. The headline is near 6%, leaving no progress over the past year. Financial sector bonuses weigh temporarily on total pay.
Doves can temporarily dismiss this inconvenient resilience as unreliable noise, but the obvious risk is that it’s genuine and monetary stimulus has already become excessive.

How high gold prices are fueling a chocolate shortage

By Behind the Money

Surging demand for gold is leading to unexpected consequences in Ghana
The gold industry is impacting cocoa production and causing environmental destruction
Some individuals are turning to illegal gold mining out of necessity due to economic pressures

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Indonesia’s Middle-Class Squeeze a Long Time Coming

By Manu Bhaskaran

Recent reports that the Indonesian middle class has shrunk should not have come as a surprise, given long-running sluggishness in household consumption and poverty.
The problem goes beyond the pandemic dislocations: misguided reliance on extractive commodities sectors and a restrictive stance on foreign investments are primary culprits.
Further squeezes on the middle class jeopardize Indonesia’s economic and political stability. Unfortunately, the government shows little sign of making the needed pivots.

Asian Equities: The Currency Tailwind – Where Would FII Flows Gravitate?

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

The USD is moderating, not just against developed market currencies, but also against Asian currencies. Usually, Asian currency revival is a lead indicator of acceleration of FII flows in Asia.
Our analysis of cumulative FII sales as proportion of market cap shows that Korea and Indonesia are oversold. India is almost there, but not quite. HK/China is still under-owned.
Taiwan and Thailand, despite large FII selling over an extended period, are still not oversold. Both markets face risks from the tariff war and could face more FII selling pressure.

Weather, Tapper Shortage Weigh Down Malaysia NR Production

By Vinod Nedumudy

China accounts for 43.6% of total Malaysian NR exports in Jan
Recovery and Rubber Production Enhancement Plan launched
Risda may become sole purchaser of smallholder rubber

CX Daily: China’s Soaring Overland Trade Accelerates Cross-Border Rail Projects

By Caixin Global

Railway / In Depth: China’s soaring overland trade accelerates cross-border rail projects
China-Japan /: Japan’s Ambassador to China sees a lot potential for economic cooperation
Stocks /: Foreign investor enthusiasm for Chinese stocks is on the up

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Mar 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

Southeast Asia: Indonesia and Thailand face economic instability due to policy missteps, high lending rates, and unsustainable fiscal strategies.
China: Focused on consumer confidence and liquidity rather than excessive government spending to drive economic stability.
U.S. Economy: Inflation expectations remain high, delaying potential rate cuts while political uncertainty increases recession risks.

SNB: 25bp Rate Cut To 0.25% (Consensus 0.25%) in Mar-25

By Heteronomics AI

The SNB lowered its policy rate by 25bps to 0.25%, in line with expectations, citing low inflation and downside risks to price stability. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank’s target range, reducing the need for aggressive monetary easing.
Switzerland’s economy remains resilient, with solid Q4 2024 growth, but global uncertainties—including geopolitical tensions and trade risks—could pose challenges. Domestic demand is expected to benefit from rising real wages, while weak foreign trade may dampen overall growth.
Future policy decisions will be data-dependent, with the SNB closely monitoring inflation and external conditions. While further easing is possible, ongoing global inflationary pressures and fiscal stimulus in Europe could influence the central bank’s stance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Sweden: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in Mar-25

By Heteronomics AI

As expected, the Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing broadly stable inflation and economic conditions despite recent global volatility.
Inflation has exceeded expectations due to temporary factors, but it is projected to stabilise close to 2% next year as these effects normalise and the krona strengthens.
Geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and domestic economic factors such as household consumption and investment will be key in determining future monetary policy adjustments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Mar 21

Most Read: BayCurrent Consulting , SAIC Motor, Samsung KODEX Autos ETF, Hanwha Aerospace, BASE Inc, Idemitsu Kosan, Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemi, Dropsuite Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade
SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses
Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades
Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles
Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
BoE Dove Beaten Into Submission
Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: US$1.4bn Total One-Way Flows; Basket Trade Idea
Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)
Dropsuite (DSE AU): Topline Selling Is A Buying Opportunity

The Japan March-End Rebal and Dividend Trade

Every year it’s the same trade. But sometimes it is not. This year it is Thursday and Friday. Or not.
The month-end and quarter-end bring big flows, or not, depending on how things have gone.
Over the past 10 years or so, the two-day return on the March trade is pretty good. This year? Well read on!

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

By Brian Freitas

With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.

Schedule Info for Front-Running Korea Sector ETF Rebalancing Trades

Demand for less crowded rebalancing plays is rising, making off-the-radar flows more critical. A structured timeline is key to tracking and managing these setups efficiently.
Key ETFs to watch are local sector names with solid AUM—about 20 names. But the trading approach isn’t one-size-fits-all.
Stick to the schedule, track potential flow setups, and front-run by securing rebalance details early and positioning ahead of the crowd.

Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles

Market sees this as an M&A play, not just de-leveraging. Sentiment’s split, and despite a tight discount, uncertainty on take-up could spark major dislocations in stock and rights.
Hanwha’s ₩3.6T raise drops just a week after Samsung SDI’s ₩2T—₩5.5T back-to-back. Absorption looks brutal, setting up serious volatility and prime trading opps if liquidity tightens.
The FSC fast-tracked this, flagging it instantly but also hinting approval. With regulator risk off, any cash market snapback tomorrow should stay in check.

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation

Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary.
This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.

BoE Dove Beaten Into Submission

By Phil Rush

The BoE unsurprisingly held its policy rate at 4.5% in March, preserving its gradual easing path after resilient recent data. Only one MPC member dissented for a 25bp cut.
Catherine Mann did not carry the extra 25bp of easing she supported from February to March. Her hyperactive vote relied on so little spurious evidence it was swiftly falsified.
Core members emphasise the lack of a predetermined path, raising the hurdle to a May cut, but this remains the most likely outcome, even if it may require a rapid reversal.

Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing

In February, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.
On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently.
Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun25: US$1.4bn Total One-Way Flows; Basket Trade Idea

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 9 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event in June 2025.

Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.
We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.
It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector.

Dropsuite (DSE AU): Topline Selling Is A Buying Opportunity

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 28th January, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
NinjaOne’s A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%.
Done & dusted no? Then Topline sold down to 19.7% on the 28th Jan, then 10.5% on the 28th Feb. The Takeover Panel now orders Topline to stop selling.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief Australia: Dropsuite Ltd, Rio Tinto Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Dropsuite (DSE AU): Topline Selling Is A Buying Opportunity
Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis

Dropsuite (DSE AU): Topline Selling Is A Buying Opportunity

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 28th January, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
NinjaOne’s A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%.
Done & dusted no? Then Topline sold down to 19.7% on the 28th Jan, then 10.5% on the 28th Feb. The Takeover Panel now orders Topline to stop selling.

Rio Tinto Dual-Listed Company (DLC) Unification Analysis

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Unification could unlock $27-32B in value, driven by cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, enhancing Rio Tinto’s market positioning and shareholder returns.
$2.88B in franking credits are lost annually due to the DLC structure; unification enables full utilization via higher franked dividends and strategic off-market buybacks.
Increased ASX200 and FTSE100 weighting post-unification could drive $5-7B in passive fund inflows, improving liquidity, stock valuation, and institutional investor appeal.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Weather, Tapper Shortage Weigh Down Malaysia NR Production

Weather, Tapper Shortage Weigh Down Malaysia NR Production

By Vinod Nedumudy

China accounts for 43.6% of total Malaysian NR exports in Jan
Recovery and Rubber Production Enhancement Plan launched
Risda may become sole purchaser of smallholder rubber

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Mar 21

Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Aerospace, Kolmar Korea Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles
Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)
Dalton Investments Going Activist on Kolmar Holdings and NAV Valuation

Hanwha Aerospace’s Monster Raise: Checking Key Angles

Market sees this as an M&A play, not just de-leveraging. Sentiment’s split, and despite a tight discount, uncertainty on take-up could spark major dislocations in stock and rights.
Hanwha’s ₩3.6T raise drops just a week after Samsung SDI’s ₩2T—₩5.5T back-to-back. Absorption looks brutal, setting up serious volatility and prime trading opps if liquidity tightens.
The FSC fast-tracked this, flagging it instantly but also hinting approval. With regulator risk off, any cash market snapback tomorrow should stay in check.

Hanwha Aerospace: Rights Offering of 3.6 Trillion Won (Negative on Entire Korean Defense Sector)

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced a rights offering capital raise of 3.6 trillion won (US$2.5 billion), which is the largest ever rights offering capital raise in Korea.
We believe this capital raise is likely to result in higher concerns about shares dilution at Hanwha Aerospace and negatively impact its share price.
It is also likely to have a significant negative impact on the entire Korean defense stocks, as it signals a top on this sector.

Dalton Investments Going Activist on Kolmar Holdings and NAV Valuation

By Special Situation Investments

In this insight, we discuss Dalton Investments which recently started to go activist on Kolmar Korea Holdings (024720 KS) and NAV valuation of this company.
Our base case valuation of Kolmar Holdings is NAV of 475 billion won or NAV per share of 13,836 won, representing a 46% upside from current levels.
Dalton Investments is likely to pressure Kolmar Holdings to increase share buyback and cancellations.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief India: Ambuja Cements, Bajaj Finance Ltd, NIFTY Index, Nmdc Ltd, EAAA India Alternatives Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28
Bajaj Finance (BAF): Robust Growth in Place
Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty
NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.
EAAA India Pre-IPO – Quality Management Fee Stream but Future AUM Raising Could Be Difficult

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN), established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.
In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company’s current performance.
Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Robust Growth in Place

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance Ltd (“BAF”) reported a strong Q3FY25 led by good volume growth and AUM growth. It saw highest ever new loans at 12.06mm. AUM growth was INR 24119cr.
Despite elevated credit costs for peers, BAF has been relatively insulated and reported steady asset quality. ROA and Opex were also steady at around 4.5% and 33%, respectively.
In line with BAF’s long-range strategy, BAF is increasingly adopting AI to improve productivity. As part of this, BAF unveiled a BFL 3.0 FINAI company.

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

By Gaudenz Schneider

Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.
Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.
The US’s global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

By Rahul Jain

NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at >10% in FY26.
New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.
Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of >30% provides downside support.

EAAA India Pre-IPO – Quality Management Fee Stream but Future AUM Raising Could Be Difficult

By Nicholas Tan

EAAA India Alternatives Ltd (1619210D IN) is planning to raise about US$177m through its upcoming India IPO.
It is one of the leading alternatives platforms in India, with AUM of INR 572.62bn (US$6.63bn), as of 9M24, amassing 15 years of experience.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, CoreWeave, Gold, Watsco Inc, Micron Technology, Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil, Corn Active Contract, Lifeway Foods, Lands’ End Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Intel. Mr. Tan’s Greatest Challenge Is Not Process Or Foundry Leadership. It’s Something Far Bigger
CoreWeave (CRWV): Valuation, Cash Raise Lighter than Expected as Company Pushes Ahead with IPO
How high gold prices are fueling a chocolate shortage
Watsco: Air Apparent – [Business Breakdowns, EP.209]
Micron 2QF25 Earnings Call Positive, But Tread with Caution
[Earnings Review] Chevron Missed Expectations Due to Low Margins and High Costs
[Earnings Review] Exxon Topped Q4 EPS Estimates on Low Costs and High-Margin Projects
Corn at Cross Roads: Tariff, Weather Shocks, and the Battle for Global Corn Supply
Lifeway Foods Faces Potential Sale to Danone Amidst Board Overhaul and Family Feud Resolution by June 2025
LE: 4Q Review: Business Model Shifts Gaining Momentum; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

Intel. Mr. Tan’s Greatest Challenge Is Not Process Or Foundry Leadership. It’s Something Far Bigger

By William Keating

Whether Intel can achieve Process or Foundry leadership in a credible timeframe is something Mr. Tan has relatively little control over in the short term.
His most pressing challenge will be to address the corporate culture of entitlement that’s rife throughout the company, starting with the BoD
Measure his success by the number of high profile resignations we see in the coming months. Those who created Intel’s problems cannot be the ones to fix them.

CoreWeave (CRWV): Valuation, Cash Raise Lighter than Expected as Company Pushes Ahead with IPO

By IPO Boutique

CoreWeave (CRWV US) officially set terms for an IPO on Thursday morning coming in with a valuation and cash raise that was much lower than previously reported.
Furthermore, the underwriters placed a wider-than-normal spread on the range, $47-$55. This insinuates a negotiation process between the buy-side.
The valuation coming in lower than anticipated will allow investors to put money to work at a more attractive risk-reward profile.

How high gold prices are fueling a chocolate shortage

By Behind the Money

Surging demand for gold is leading to unexpected consequences in Ghana
The gold industry is impacting cocoa production and causing environmental destruction
Some individuals are turning to illegal gold mining out of necessity due to economic pressures

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Watsco: Air Apparent – [Business Breakdowns, EP.209]

By Business Breakdowns

Watsco is North America’s largest distributor of HVAC equipment, serving as a crucial link between manufacturers and contractors.
They offer a wide range of equipment and parts, technical expertise, and value-added services to their contractor customers.
Watsco’s transformation from manufacturer to distributor in 1989 led to significant growth, with consistent annualized shareholder returns over the years.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Micron 2QF25 Earnings Call Positive, But Tread with Caution

By Jim Handy

Micron’s strong HBM and Data Center growth has nearly offset low revenues in the remainder of the company’s business.
This HBM growth depends heavily upon continued strength in hyperscale data center AI CapEx
Micron outlined means to maintain stability in its industry, but China semiconductor goals are in conflict with these measures

[Earnings Review] Chevron Missed Expectations Due to Low Margins and High Costs

By Suhas Reddy

Chevron’s 2024 revenue rose 0.9% YoY, beating estimates by 4.7%, but EPS fell 23.5%, missing estimates by 1.2%. The downstream segment reported its first loss since 2020.
Chevron’s Q4 production fell 1.2% YoY but 2024 output hit a record, with global and U.S. production up 7% and 19% YoY, driven by growth in the Permian.
Chevron raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to USD 1.71/share and reaffirmed plans to generate USD 10 billion in free cash flow over two years.

[Earnings Review] Exxon Topped Q4 EPS Estimates on Low Costs and High-Margin Projects

By Suhas Reddy

Exxon Mobil’s Q4 revenue fell by 0.8% YoY and net profit decreased by 25.8%. Revenue missed estimates by 3.4% but EPS exceeded expectations by 7.6%.
Upstream production rose 0.4% QoQ and 20.3% YoY to 4.6 mboepd, driven by record output in Guyana and the Permian, while crude price realizations declined sequentially and annually.
Low Permian production costs and high-margin Guyana projects sustained profitability despite weaker oil prices and declining refining margins.

Corn at Cross Roads: Tariff, Weather Shocks, and the Battle for Global Corn Supply

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Corn rose 37% from its multi-year low in August until mid-Feb. Strong export demand for U.S. corn and adverse weather in South America supported a longer-term recovery.
US Corn exports for the current MY have exceeded both the 5-year average & previous year. Export momentum has continued even as the dollar has strengthened sharply since October.
2024 drought in Brazil was the worst since 1950. No direct impact on crops but transportation was significantly disrupted. Key waterways/ports used for shipping were affected causing delays.

Lifeway Foods Faces Potential Sale to Danone Amidst Board Overhaul and Family Feud Resolution by June 2025

Danone offered to buy Lifeway at $25/share in September 2024, raised to $27/share in November 2024.
Lifeway’s board rejected Danone’s offers, claiming $27/share undervalues the company; CEO Julie Smolyansky increased her compensation.
Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky, with Danone, control 50% of Lifeway, aiming to replace the board and negotiate a sale.

LE: 4Q Review: Business Model Shifts Gaining Momentum; Reiterate Buy, $20 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Lands’ End after the company reported slightly below consensus 4Q revenue and EBITDA and provided initial FY25 guidance which bracketed the Street, as the shift to higher levels of licensed product sales and lower discounting, strong results from digital marketplaces, international growth and B2B expansion poise Lands’ End to continue to drive higher overall margins and increasingly position the company as a leading lifestyle resource.
With FY25 positioned, with new licensed products coming online, as another year of metamorphosis at the company, we remain excited over the continued upgrades and higher returns, and reiterate our Buy rating and $20 price target for LE.

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Mar 21

Daily Brief Japan: BASE Inc, Idemitsu Kosan, NVIDIA Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Softbank Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing
NVDA’s ‘Quantum Day’ Fails to Live up to the Hype. Micron Beats, and Softbank Acquires Ampere.
Instilling Expectations Was Positive, but Interest Quickly Shifting from Seriousness to Performance
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation

Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary.
This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.

Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing