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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Seoul Guarantee Insurance, FleetPartners Group , Northern Arc Capital, New World Development, Neptune Insurance Holdings, Integral , Bank Negara Indonesia Persero, IP Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum
  • FleetPartners (FPR AU): Mitsubishi Motors’ Register Raid Foreshadows An Offer
  • The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital – A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?
  • RE Stock Implications from Fed’s Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers
  • Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Specialty Risk Insurer
  • Integral Kk (5842:JP) – Thursday, Jun 19, 2025
  • Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) – Downgrading to Neutral Due to Worsening Bad Loan and Interest Margin Outlook
  • IP Group — Exit target of over £250m by end-FY27 reiterated


Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum

By Sanghyun Park

  • PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.
  • December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.
  • Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.

FleetPartners (FPR AU): Mitsubishi Motors’ Register Raid Foreshadows An Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) has aggressively built a 19.93% position in FleetPartners (FPR AU), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, paying up to $3.10/share for a ~15% stake.
  • Earlier this year, Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners privatised Sg Fleet (SGF AU), one of FleetPartners key competitors.
  • MMC said it has no current intention to acquire control or a make a takeover offer. Mmm. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital – A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Northern Arc is fast shifting toward direct retail Lending (D2C), while leveraging originator partnerships and technology; recent rate cuts and regulatory relief are improving cost of funds & capital efficiency.
  • Northern Arc’s mix of structured finance, co-lending, and fund management creates steady fee income, making it more resilient than traditional NBFCs relying mainly on heavy lending assets.
  • Northern Arc is a differentiated NBFC benefits from inclusion & fintech growth, but valuation relies on retail execution, risk control, and asset quality pressures.

RE Stock Implications from Fed’s Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

By Jacob Cheng

  • The Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market.  The SEP median estimate indicates 2 more cuts in 2025
  • Regarding HK policy address, there are no meaningful positive surprise related to the property market.  It highlights the importance of Northern Metropolis development, and improving home ownership, and talent admission
  • Investors should see-through these and focus on big picture: macro developments, monetary policy, and sector fundamentals.  Pick company with attractive valuation and catalysts: NWD, Link REIT, CICT, COLI, VNET, GDS

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Specialty Risk Insurer

By IPO Boutique

  • They offer a range of residential and commercial insurance products — including primary flood insurance, excess flood insurance, and parametric earthquake insurance — distributed through a nationwide network of agencies.
  • They had revenue of $84.9 million and $119.3 million and net income of $17.9 million and $34.6 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
  • Neptune Insurance Holdings is set to become the sixth insurance-related IPO of 2025.

Integral Kk (5842:JP) – Thursday, Jun 19, 2025

By Value Investors Club (VIC)

Key points (machine generated)

  • Integral is a leading Japanese private equity firm with JPY400 billion in assets, focusing on mid-cap investments of $100-$150 million.
  • The firm has a strong track record with 27% gross IRR and 2.8x gross MOIC since 2010, and its latest Fund IV was oversubscribed at JPY250 billion.
  • Following a public offering in September 2023, Integral’s shares are trading at JPY2700, appearing undervalued with a P/E of 5.5x and expected solid performance in 2025.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) – Downgrading to Neutral Due to Worsening Bad Loan and Interest Margin Outlook

By Victor Galliano

  • We downgrade Bank Negara , our former top pick in Indonesian banks, to a neutral from a buy due to the more concerning credit quality outlook, despite its undemanding valuations
  • The sacking of the technocratic finance minister increased investor concerns, and the economy’s lacklustre GDP growth – reflected in the surprise rate cut – adds to the banks’ NPL headwinds
  • Negara’s headline NPL ratio and NPL coverage seem to be reasonable, but these metrics mask more concerning broader credit quality ratios, coupled with the challenge of its low interest margins

IP Group — Exit target of over £250m by end-FY27 reiterated

By Edison Investment Research

IP Group continues to deliver a meaningful level of realisations with £30.3m in proceeds generated in H125, more than two-thirds of which came from four life sciences companies (Intelligent Ultrasound, Centessa, Abliva and Hinge Health). Importantly, management reiterated its target of delivering over £250m in realisation proceeds between FY25 and FY27, which excludes any potential exit proceeds from Oxford Nanopore (ONT) and represents roughly 50% of IP Group’s current market capitalisation. IP Group’s NAV was supported by the rising share price of ONT, and the successful IPO and subsequent performance of Hinge Health (for which IP Group’s lock-up expires in November 2025). This was offset by a net decline in the carrying values of private holdings, most notably Oxa Autonomy and Artios Pharma due to funding delays, and £14.2m of fx headwinds. This led to a slight 1.5% fall in NAV in H125 to 96.2p, which was more than reversed post reporting date by the continued strength of listed holdings, bringing IP Group’s NAV to c 100p as of 12 September 2025.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nvidia-Intel Boosts Chip Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nvidia-Intel Boosts Chip Stocks
  • Japan Morning Connection: Intel/NVDA Partnership Very Positive for Japanese SPE Suppliers
  • Singapore Market Roundup (18-Sep-2025): OCBC Boosts Golden Agri Target Price Due to Strong Palm
  • China Slaps Up to 78% Tariffs on U.S. Fiber Optic Imports in First-Ever Anti-Circumvention Case
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Sep-2025): Asia’s E-Book Reader Market Is Experiencing Rapid Growth


Ohayo Japan | Nvidia-Intel Boosts Chip Stocks

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks hit record highs as Fed rate-cut signals lifted markets, with Nvidia’s $5 billion Intel investment driving chip gains.
  • Nvidia will buy a $5 billion stake in Intel to jointly develop PC and data center chips, sending Intel shares up over 25% and Nvidia about 3%.
  • FedEx beat quarterly profit and revenue estimates as cost cuts offset weaker international volumes, lifting shares 6% in extended trading despite a cautious 2026 earnings outlook.

Japan Morning Connection: Intel/NVDA Partnership Very Positive for Japanese SPE Suppliers

By Andrew Jackson

  • Expect big gains for the likes of TEL, Lasertec, TOK with Intel emerging as the clear national champion.
  • Memory names continue to surge higher, so Kioxia’s -7% drop off the highs yesterday likely to draw interest.
  • Not good news for ARM though, as a NVDA/INTC partnership will make it harder for their architectures to gain traction. Sell Softback.

Singapore Market Roundup (18-Sep-2025): OCBC Boosts Golden Agri Target Price Due to Strong Palm

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • OCBC raises Golden Agri-Resources target price amid strong palm oil prices.
  • CGS International raises ISOTeam target price amid upcoming drone deployment.
  • UOBKH maintains ‘sell’ on SIA, raises target to $6.05, cites Air India impact.

China Slaps Up to 78% Tariffs on U.S. Fiber Optic Imports in First-Ever Anti-Circumvention Case

By Caixin Global

  • China has imposed steep anti-dumping duties of up to 78.2% on certain U.S.-made fiber optic products starting Sept. 4, according to the Ministry of Commerce, escalating trade frictions between the world’s two largest economies.
  • The tariffs target a niche category of fibers known as cutoff wavelength-shifted single-mode fiber, or G.654.C fiber, optimized for long-haul and undersea networks. The ministry said U.S. producers were exporting these products to China in order to evade duties already applied to another fiber product.
  • According to the ministry, Corning Inc. will face a duty of 37.9%, OFS Fitel LLC will be taxed at 33.3%, and Draka Communications Americas Inc. will incur a 78.2% duty. All other U.S. exporters will be subject to the maximum rate of 78.2%. The measure builds on anti-dumping penalties China first levied on U.S.-origin single-mode fiber more than a decade ago.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (19-Sep-2025): Asia’s E-Book Reader Market Is Experiencing Rapid Growth

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Asia’s e-book reader market is witnessing substantial growth, fueled by increasing sales figures.
  • Leading companies such as Google and Amazon are focusing on advanced AI technologies to enhance user experience.
  • DeepSeek AI is assessing risks linked to heightened regulatory scrutiny in China, indicating market complexities.

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Daily Brief ECM: [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?
  • Luxshare Precision A/H Listing – Earnings Growth and Stock Have Been Rebounding
  • Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Trading Update
  • Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Butong Group IPO: Strong Momentum But Premium Hard To Justify
  • Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Specialty Risk Insurer
  • Saatvik Green IPO – Making Hay While the Sun Shines on Valuations
  • ArkBio (爱科百发) Pre-IPO: Early Signs of Success for Recycled Assets
  • Netskope, Inc. (NTSK): Cybersecurity Leader Pops 21% on IPO After Pricing with Strength
  • Pateo Connect Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Growth Has Not Translated to Profits


[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) – KKR’s Lock Up Expiry in 3 Weeks – $700mm Clean-Up Coming?

By Travis Lundy

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed too cheap in 2023 after a couple of years in the wilderness and an aborted private sale effort, blocked on antitrust grounds. 
  • It nearly tripled, there was an offering announced at ¥5,000+ priced ¥4,500+. Shares fell back to IPO price, then bounced, and we got a July follow-on offering at ¥3,000+.
  • I suggested here the back end could be squeezy. It was for a hot minute, then it wasn’t. Now the stock is up 50% in 2 weeks. Watch out!

Luxshare Precision A/H Listing – Earnings Growth and Stock Have Been Rebounding

By Sumeet Singh

  • Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) (LP), a precision intelligent manufacturer, aims to raise around US$2bn in its H-share listing.
  • LP provides cross-sector, vertically integrated development and intelligent manufacturing solutions—from components and modules to systems—for global clients across consumer electronics, automotive electronics, communication and data centers, and other end markets.
  • In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Trading Update

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Genfleet raised HKD 1819m (USD 233m) from its global offering and will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday, September 18th.
  • In our previous note, we looked at the company’s operation, management track records and discussed the IPO valuation.
  • In this note, we provide an update for the IPO before trading debut.

Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps’ average multiple.
  • We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto’s higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.

Butong Group IPO: Strong Momentum But Premium Hard To Justify

By Hong Jie Seow

  • Butong Group is looking to raise up to US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Butong has been able to achieve strong topline momentum of 57% CAGR from FY22 to FY24, whilst expanding its margins. 
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Specialty Risk Insurer

By IPO Boutique

  • They offer a range of residential and commercial insurance products — including primary flood insurance, excess flood insurance, and parametric earthquake insurance — distributed through a nationwide network of agencies.
  • They had revenue of $84.9 million and $119.3 million and net income of $17.9 million and $34.6 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
  • Neptune Insurance Holdings is set to become the sixth insurance-related IPO of 2025.

Saatvik Green IPO – Making Hay While the Sun Shines on Valuations

By Himanshu Dugar

  • Time for another Solar Photovoltaic module manufacturer to list undeterred by the tepid listing for Vikram Solar
  • Largely a commoditised business with a potential technological threat. Solar PV companies in India continue to trade at exceptional valuations of 20-30 times trailing EBITDA
  • Saatvik, despite being smaller in scale vs peers and in face of intensifying competition is being priced at 14-15 times our FY27E EBITDA (peers trade at 14-16x)

ArkBio (爱科百发) Pre-IPO: Early Signs of Success for Recycled Assets

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • ArkBio, a China-based near commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. JPM and CITIC are the joint sponsors.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s core products, AK0529 and AK3280.
  • We also look at the company’s pre-IPO investors and management team.

Netskope, Inc. (NTSK): Cybersecurity Leader Pops 21% on IPO After Pricing with Strength

By IPO Boutique

  • The company priced 47.8 million shares at $19.00, the high end of its upwardly revised $17–$19 range, before opening at $23.00 for a 21.0% premium to issue.
  • The offering was classified as multiple-times oversubscribed –our sources saying north of 20-times oversubscribed– with strong participation from long-only funds and 1-on-1 conversions.
  • Over the next month, the real test will be whether the stock avoids the all-too-common “sell the news” trend that’s hit many recent IPOs.

Pateo Connect Pre-IPO: PHIP Update: Growth Has Not Translated to Profits

By Nicholas Tan

  • Pateo Connect Technology (PTC HK) is looking to raise around US$140m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • PTC is one of the largest domestic providers of smart cockpit and intelligent connectivity solutions in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we will undertake a PHIP update.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026
  • [Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc
  • Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum
  • ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Centurium / Management Buyout?
  • SmartPay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): 14th October Vote On Shift4’s Offer
  • ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Trade Buyer or Centurium Capital to Launch a Privatisation Offer?
  • FleetPartners (FPR AU): Mitsubishi Motors’ Register Raid Foreshadows An Offer
  • Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Scheme Vote on 14 October
  • EQT Partners – To Acquire a Controlling Stake In Douzone Bizon & A Tender Offer of Minority Shares?
  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn


Zijin Gold (2259 HK) IPO: HSCI Fast Entry; Quick Stock Connect Add; Global Indices Entry in 2026

By Brian Freitas

  • Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is looking to raise up to HK$28.7bn (US$3.7bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$191.6bn (US$24.6bn).
  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold between 85-86.7% of Zijin Gold and that will limit the free float of the stock. Half the IPO has been allotted to cornerstones.
  • Zijin Gold could be added to the HSCI via Fast Entry and to Stock Connect in October. Global index inclusion should take place in the first half of 2026.

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Nagging Little Detail In the Soft99 MBO Extension Target Doc

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) announced a slight change in its “Target Opinion Document” after the MBO Bidco extended its TOB by 8 days the day before. 
  • The detail was not in the MBO Bidco extension. It was just revealed in an added note on p3 of the Target Opinion. 
  • That details matters A LOT to people looking at the Effissimo Overbid. The company’s Board has some serious work ahead. 

Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum

By Sanghyun Park

  • PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.
  • December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.
  • Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Centurium / Management Buyout?

By David Blennerhassett

  • ANE Cayman (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, is suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
  • PE outfit Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, holds 24.6%. Two senior management – past & present – hold a further 20.2%. 
  • ANE’s share price is up 29% YTD, but 27% adrift of its November 2021 IPO price. 

SmartPay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): 14th October Vote On Shift4’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23rd June, eftpos terminal provider SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU/NZ) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed withShift4 Payments (FOUR US).
  • Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, a 90.5% premium to undisturbed. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards. Microequities with 13.3% of shares out, is supportive.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 14th October, and expected implementation on or before the 4th November. The IE (Calibre) says “fair & reasonable“.

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Trade Buyer or Centurium Capital to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

By Arun George

  • ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) is on a halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
  • I expect the halt is related to a potential privatisation bid from either a trade buyer, such as one of the Tongda operators, or an MBO sponsored by Centurium Capital.
  • I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a range of HK$11.34-11.80 per share, with an average of HK$11.55, a 14% premium to the last close.

FleetPartners (FPR AU): Mitsubishi Motors’ Register Raid Foreshadows An Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) has aggressively built a 19.93% position in FleetPartners (FPR AU), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, paying up to $3.10/share for a ~15% stake.
  • Earlier this year, Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners privatised Sg Fleet (SGF AU), one of FleetPartners key competitors.
  • MMC said it has no current intention to acquire control or a make a takeover offer. Mmm. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): Scheme Vote on 14 October

By Arun George

  • The Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ) IE considers Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)’s NZ$1.20 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the NZ$1.07 to A$1.43 valuation range. 
  • Microequities has provided an irrevocable, and the other substantial shareholders should be supportive, as the offer is attractive and no competing proposal has emerged.
  • The scheme vote is low risk. At the last close and for the 4 November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.4%/31.0%.  

EQT Partners – To Acquire a Controlling Stake In Douzone Bizon & A Tender Offer of Minority Shares?

By Douglas Kim

  • It was reported in Seoul Economic Daily today that EQT Partners is close to acquiring a controlling stake (31.4%) in Douzone Bizon (012510 KS).
  • A 31.4% stake of Douzone is now worth  0.91 trillion won (with no premium or discount). 
  • Douzone’s chairman Kim has demanded up to twice the market cap of the company for the management rights premium. 

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Gold Priced At US$24bn

By David Blennerhassett

  • The global offering doc for Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is out.
  • At the IPO Price of HK$71.59/share, Zijin Gold’s implied market cap is HK$187.9bn or US$24bn. Commencement of trading is the 29th September.
  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will hold 86.7% in Zijin Gold post-IPO (before over-allotment).  Even if Zijin Gold trades north of HK$100/share, Zijin Mining is fully valued.

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Daily Brief Australia: SmartPay Holdings, FleetPartners Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SmartPay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): 14th October Vote On Shift4’s Offer
  • FleetPartners (FPR AU): Mitsubishi Motors’ Register Raid Foreshadows An Offer


SmartPay (SPY NZ/SMP AU): 14th October Vote On Shift4’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23rd June, eftpos terminal provider SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU/NZ) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed withShift4 Payments (FOUR US).
  • Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, a 90.5% premium to undisturbed. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards. Microequities with 13.3% of shares out, is supportive.
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 14th October, and expected implementation on or before the 4th November. The IE (Calibre) says “fair & reasonable“.

FleetPartners (FPR AU): Mitsubishi Motors’ Register Raid Foreshadows An Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) has aggressively built a 19.93% position in FleetPartners (FPR AU), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, paying up to $3.10/share for a ~15% stake.
  • Earlier this year, Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners privatised Sg Fleet (SGF AU), one of FleetPartners key competitors.
  • MMC said it has no current intention to acquire control or a make a takeover offer. Mmm. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group
  • UST yields rose 5-7 bps yesterday, unwinding earlier declines in the aftermath of the Fed’s widely expected 25 bps rate cut. This was as Chairman Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone during the press conference and signalled less support for larger rate decreases.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST was up 5 bps at 3.55%, while the yield on the 10Y UST climbed 6 bps to 4.09%. Equities retreated slightly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook
  • What Is the Real Prize in Nvidia’s $5B Intel Bet?
  • The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital – A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?
  • ZIM Integrated’s $20 Buyout Drama—Is A Takeover Inevitable?
  • GE Vernova Stock Explodes 5x Post Spin-Off: What’s Fueling The Surge?
  • Pitney Bowes Inc (PBI) – Thursday, Jun 19, 2025
  • Health & Happiness (H&H 1112HK): After the Pain, Is It Finally Time for Gain?
  • RE Stock Implications from Fed’s Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers
  • NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!
  • IBM Just Took The Lead In The Quantum Arms Race—And It’s Only The Beginning!


Not a Bargaining Chip: Beijing Is Dismantling Nvidia’s China Playbook

By Raghav Vashisht

  • China’s analog chip probe and revived Nvidia antitrust case are part of a deeper strategy to force foreign tech out of its supply chain.
  • Nvidia’s China-only B40 flops, with buyers preferring grey market alternatives. Meanwhile, Domestic chipmakers like Novosense and SG Micro have rallied sharply as procurement tilts inward.
  • If Beijing blocks Nvidia’s B30A next, it could mark a full commercial exit. U.S. peers like TXN, AMD, and Synopsys may also not be far behind.

What Is the Real Prize in Nvidia’s $5B Intel Bet?

By Raghav Vashisht

  • Nvidia takes a $5B stake in Intel and will co-develop custom x86 CPUs for data centers and RTX-integrated SoCs for PCs.
  • The phrasing of “fusion of two world-class platforms” signals ambitions beyond just product collaboration. 
  • Intel shares surged +30% on the news, while AMD and Arm slumped; toolmakers like ASML and Synopsys rallied on expectations of fresh CapEx.

The Beat Ideas: Northern Arc Capital – A Niche Player in a Crowded Field?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Northern Arc is fast shifting toward direct retail Lending (D2C), while leveraging originator partnerships and technology; recent rate cuts and regulatory relief are improving cost of funds & capital efficiency.
  • Northern Arc’s mix of structured finance, co-lending, and fund management creates steady fee income, making it more resilient than traditional NBFCs relying mainly on heavy lending assets.
  • Northern Arc is a differentiated NBFC benefits from inclusion & fintech growth, but valuation relies on retail execution, risk control, and asset quality pressures.

ZIM Integrated’s $20 Buyout Drama—Is A Takeover Inevitable?

By Baptista Research

  • ZIM Integrated Shipping Services reported its second quarter 2025 financial results during a period characterized by severe market disruptions primarily due to tariff changes in the U.S.
  • Despite these challenges, the company leveraged its modernized fleet and improved cost structure to generate revenue of $1.6 billion, a net income of $24 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $472 million.
  • The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 29%, while the adjusted EBIT margin came in at 9%.

GE Vernova Stock Explodes 5x Post Spin-Off: What’s Fueling The Surge?

By Baptista Research

  • GE Vernova, a recent spin-off from General Electric, has seen its stock skyrocket nearly 5x since its separation in April 2024.
  • With the company now trading around $628 and an analyst target pushing it to $740, investor enthusiasm is boiling over.
  • The latest catalyst?

Pitney Bowes Inc (PBI) – Thursday, Jun 19, 2025

By Value Investors Club (VIC)

Key points (machine generated)

  • Pitney Bowes is trading at approximately 5x free cash flow after appointing Kurt Wolf as CEO.
  • The company has transformed from a distressed credit to a cash-generating entity with growth catalysts like increased share repurchases.
  • Despite positive changes, the stock is undervalued with a 20% levered FCF yield, indicating potential for both short-term and long-term growth.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Health & Happiness (H&H 1112HK): After the Pain, Is It Finally Time for Gain?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • After sinking to 10-year lows in January,  Health And Happiness (H&H) ’s stock has rebounded more than 75%, raising the question of whether operations are finally turning the corner.
  • With signs of stabilizing growth and improving returns across product categories, 1H2025 results seem to signal the end of years of investor agony.
  • Nutritional supplements now contribute to 65% of H&H’s revenue – Swisse’s strong positioning in the fast-growing anti-aging category underpins future growth.

RE Stock Implications from Fed’s Rate Cut and HK PA: Focus on Big Picture, Macro and Sector Drivers

By Jacob Cheng

  • The Fed announced a 25bps rate cut, which is largely anticipated by the market.  The SEP median estimate indicates 2 more cuts in 2025
  • Regarding HK policy address, there are no meaningful positive surprise related to the property market.  It highlights the importance of Northern Metropolis development, and improving home ownership, and talent admission
  • Investors should see-through these and focus on big picture: macro developments, monetary policy, and sector fundamentals.  Pick company with attractive valuation and catalysts: NWD, Link REIT, CICT, COLI, VNET, GDS

NVIDIA In The Crosshairs: China’s Antitrust Crackdown Threatens Billions In AI Chip Revenue!

By Baptista Research

  • The geopolitical tech battle between the U.S. and China has taken a sharp turn—and Nvidia is now squarely in the crosshairs.
  • In a significant escalation, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust probe against Nvidia, claiming the chipmaker violated monopoly laws during its $7 billion acquisition of Israeli firm Mellanox Technologies.
  • The regulator’s preliminary findings come at a delicate moment as U.S. and Chinese officials wrap up high-stakes trade talks in Madrid.

IBM Just Took The Lead In The Quantum Arms Race—And It’s Only The Beginning!

By Baptista Research

  • The race toward quantum advantage is entering its most critical phase, and IBM has quietly positioned itself as the frontrunner in a highly competitive field dominated by tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.
  • In its Q2 2025 earnings call, IBM confirmed a major milestone: the deployment of IBM Quantum System Two in Japan, the first such system outside the United States.
  • This isn’t just a milestone in hardware—it signals IBM’s intent to establish global leadership in quantum computing infrastructure.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Seoul Guarantee Insurance, Douzone Bizon and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum
  • EQT Partners – To Acquire a Controlling Stake In Douzone Bizon & A Tender Offer of Minority Shares?


Flagging a New Passive Flow Trading Opportunity Triggered by Korea’s Divvy Policy Momentum

By Sanghyun Park

  • PLUS High Dividend ETF (161510 KS) reshuffle is now a key flow catalyst: June saw GS E&C and HD Hyundai out, Hyundai Motor in, with sharp one-day moves.
  • December review shaping up as 2-in/2-out: Seoul Guarantee (031210) and LG Corp (003550) in, Shinhan (055550) and KB (105560) out.
  • Passive flows: Shinhan/KB ~0.3–0.4x DTV, LG ~3x, Seoul Guarantee 5–6x. With AUM up 30% since June, upcoming adds face outsized passive impact.

EQT Partners – To Acquire a Controlling Stake In Douzone Bizon & A Tender Offer of Minority Shares?

By Douglas Kim

  • It was reported in Seoul Economic Daily today that EQT Partners is close to acquiring a controlling stake (31.4%) in Douzone Bizon (012510 KS).
  • A 31.4% stake of Douzone is now worth  0.91 trillion won (with no premium or discount). 
  • Douzone’s chairman Kim has demanded up to twice the market cap of the company for the management rights premium. 

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Outlook: Weather, Inventories, And Speculative Buying Drive Volatility


Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Outlook: Weather, Inventories, And Speculative Buying Drive Volatility

By Arusha Das

  • Weather related disruption resulted in spike in prices
  • Despite some restocking Tire makers remind cautious
  • Market expects rebound in Chinese buying ahead of the September peak tire production period

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Bank Negara Indonesia Persero and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) – Downgrading to Neutral Due to Worsening Bad Loan and Interest Margin Outlook


Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) – Downgrading to Neutral Due to Worsening Bad Loan and Interest Margin Outlook

By Victor Galliano

  • We downgrade Bank Negara , our former top pick in Indonesian banks, to a neutral from a buy due to the more concerning credit quality outlook, despite its undemanding valuations
  • The sacking of the technocratic finance minister increased investor concerns, and the economy’s lacklustre GDP growth – reflected in the surprise rate cut – adds to the banks’ NPL headwinds
  • Negara’s headline NPL ratio and NPL coverage seem to be reasonable, but these metrics mask more concerning broader credit quality ratios, coupled with the challenge of its low interest margins

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