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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Bilibili Inc, Intelligent Wave and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • BILI US, SELL, TP US$14.1, Target Price Change: Thriving Gaming Market Makes Limited Contribution
  • Intelligent Wave Inc. (4847 JP) – 3Q Follow-Up

BILI US, SELL, TP US$14.1, Target Price Change: Thriving Gaming Market Makes Limited Contribution

By Shawn Yang

  • BILI reported 1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income (4.2%)/in-line vs. our estimate, but BILI’s suggested 2Q23 revenue and gross margin are (10%) and (3.5ppts) lower vs. our prior est.; 
  • Gaming will be BILI’s major swing factor.  Although BILI indicated that 2Q23 gaming revenue could decline 10% YoY, we expect that gaming revenue will still grow 6%~ YoY in 2023.; 
  • We maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 14.1. 1Q23’s earning indicates that BILI’s cost saving measures have led to declining MAU.

Intelligent Wave Inc. (4847 JP) – 3Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • IWI held an in-person briefing for 3Q FY23/6 results on Friday, May 12 at the Securities Analysts Association of Japan Kabutocho Heiwa Bldg. Annex 3F, which was also livestreamed via IR.
  • Stock Investment Information portal site Bridge Salon.
  • In SIR’s opinion, this 3Q results presentation hosted by IWI’s CEO and Representative Director Kunimitsu Sato was the most upbeat since he assumed office in Sep-2020. 

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 41 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 41
  • Happy Friday & Strong HK Rebound! What to Chase? China Prop (High Beta) And HK Prop (Value Play)
  • Japan Weekly | Softbank, Hino Motors, Cosmo Energy, Kumagai Gumi
  • China TMT Update June 3 – KE/LI/NIO/XPEV: Xpeng to Begin Presale for G6 on June 9(+)

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 41

By Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

  • We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
  • Portfolio changes: 10 stocks remain, four new join the fray
  • Since inception, it has gained 115% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 31%

Happy Friday & Strong HK Rebound! What to Chase? China Prop (High Beta) And HK Prop (Value Play)

By Jacob Cheng

  • HK stock market rebounded strongly due to a few reasons, mostly macro and policy-related.  Macro factors and policies become primary share price drivers
  • Investors can add more beta names (China Property Developers) and value plays (Hong Kong Developers) if they want to add exposure
  • Among the listed universe, 688 HK COLI, 17 HK NWD, 101 HK HLP are key names with attractive upside

Japan Weekly | Softbank, Hino Motors, Cosmo Energy, Kumagai Gumi

By Mark Chadwick

  • Japanese equities had another good week with the TOPIX ending 1.7% higher
  • Japanese stocks have outperformed global peers since May on strong domestic earnings, a weak yen, and enthusiasm over artificial intelligence. 
  • Softbank seems to be one of the AI names. Activist campaigns now in full flow ahead of AGMs

China TMT Update June 3 – KE/LI/NIO/XPEV: Xpeng to Begin Presale for G6 on June 9(+)

By Shawn Yang

  • LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng announced May vehicle delivery results (+/-/)
  • XPEV: Xpeng to begin presale for G6 on June 9 (+)
  • KE Holding: Monthly housing transactions remain resilient in May (+)

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Heineken Holding NV, Tata Motors Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I: ValueAct’s Proposals Unlikely to Be Considered, Investor Activism Effectively Over
  • FEMSA’s Exit from Heineken/Heineken Holding and Share Price Spread
  • Weekly Wrap – 02 Jun 2023
  • Cash Flow Return Is Necessary Condition for Higher Stock Valuations; Shareholder Return Is Byproduct

Seven & I: ValueAct’s Proposals Unlikely to Be Considered, Investor Activism Effectively Over

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Last week, shareholders of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) rejected all four of the board nominees proposed by ValueAct.
  • ValueAct, seeing their higher vote count as a modest success, sent a letter to Seven & I, requesting a resumption of discussions despite the failed attempt to remove senior leadership.
  • We think the company is unlikely to seriously consider Value Act’s proposals any longer, indicating the end of the investor activism campaign.

FEMSA’s Exit from Heineken/Heineken Holding and Share Price Spread

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • FEMSA has placed c.€3.3 billion of Heineken NV (HEIA NA) and Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) shares and tap €250 million of existing 2026 Exchangeable bonds. The placement removes a major overhang.
  • The holding structure (equivalence 1 HEIO NA ~ 1 HEIA NO) allows the Heineken family to control the second largest brewer worldwide, with just a 27.3% economic interest (post-FEMSA’s placement).
  • The discount has tightened to 15.8%, still above the 10.4% average of the last ten years, and rather large considering such a simple structure.

Weekly Wrap – 02 Jun 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. China Jinmao Holdings
  3. Lifestyle International Holdings
  4. Geely Auto
  5. First Pacific Co

and more…


Cash Flow Return Is Necessary Condition for Higher Stock Valuations; Shareholder Return Is Byproduct

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The most important factor in increasing stock valuations is overseas investors, and a clue can be found in exploring what kind of companies they tend to invest in.
  • It is a company with high cash holdings and a high growth policy score, i.e., a company that generates ample cash flow. This should be considered a necessary condition.
  • As foreign ownership increases, shareholder returns such as share buybacks will also be implemented to review cash allocations and improve board practices, so these can be considered byproducts.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: SE600 Jun 23 Rebal: Past Trades Successful and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • SE600 Jun 23 Rebal: Past Trades Successful, DELs Could Underperform Index over the Next ~2 Weeks
  • Seven & I: ValueAct’s Proposals Unlikely to Be Considered, Investor Activism Effectively Over
  • FEMSA’s Exit from Heineken/Heineken Holding and Share Price Spread
  • EQT/​Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Recommended Offer

SE600 Jun 23 Rebal: Past Trades Successful, DELs Could Underperform Index over the Next ~2 Weeks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2023 regular rebalance index changes for the SE600 index and the EURSTX index were announced after the close yesterday.
  • There are 8 ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index and 3 ADDs and 2 DELs for the EURSTX index.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at our final index flow expectations for June 2023.

Seven & I: ValueAct’s Proposals Unlikely to Be Considered, Investor Activism Effectively Over

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Last week, shareholders of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) rejected all four of the board nominees proposed by ValueAct.
  • ValueAct, seeing their higher vote count as a modest success, sent a letter to Seven & I, requesting a resumption of discussions despite the failed attempt to remove senior leadership.
  • We think the company is unlikely to seriously consider Value Act’s proposals any longer, indicating the end of the investor activism campaign.

FEMSA’s Exit from Heineken/Heineken Holding and Share Price Spread

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • FEMSA has placed c.€3.3 billion of Heineken NV (HEIA NA) and Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) shares and tap €250 million of existing 2026 Exchangeable bonds. The placement removes a major overhang.
  • The holding structure (equivalence 1 HEIO NA ~ 1 HEIA NO) allows the Heineken family to control the second largest brewer worldwide, with just a 27.3% economic interest (post-FEMSA’s placement).
  • The discount has tightened to 15.8%, still above the 10.4% average of the last ten years, and rather large considering such a simple structure.

EQT/​Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Recommended Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • At the end of PUSU deadline, EQT and Dechra have agreed a 3,875p/share offer (44% premium, 21.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 30.2x Fwd P/E, vs. market leader Zoetis at 20.5x and 28.9x respectively).
  • Other private equity companies may not be able to match the deal’s disintermediation benefits. Considering the short-term issues, I believe investors will accept the offer.
  • My base-case DCF fair-value estimate is 3,568p/share, 7.9% below the offer price. Therefore I set my TP at 3,875p. Spread is 5.8%/8.8% (gross/annualised), I feel the risk/reward is balanced. Long.

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Daily Brief Financials: Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget I Norden AB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • SE600 Jun 23 Rebal: Past Trades Successful, DELs Could Underperform Index over the Next ~2 Weeks

SE600 Jun 23 Rebal: Past Trades Successful, DELs Could Underperform Index over the Next ~2 Weeks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The June 2023 regular rebalance index changes for the SE600 index and the EURSTX index were announced after the close yesterday.
  • There are 8 ADDs/DELs for the SE600 index and 3 ADDs and 2 DELs for the EURSTX index.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at our final index flow expectations for June 2023.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Amvis Holdings Inc, Dechra Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Strong H1FY23 Result; FY23 Guidance Unchanged; Expansion Continues
  • EQT/​Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Recommended Offer

Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Strong H1FY23 Result; FY23 Guidance Unchanged; Expansion Continues

By Tina Banerjee

  • Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) recorded 42% revenue growth to ¥14.7B in H1FY23, driven by 33% increase in bed capacity and stable utilization rate. Operating profit grew 37% to ¥3.9B.
  • The company has guided for FY23 revenue of ¥30.7B (+33% YoY), operating profit of ¥7.9B (+28% YoY), and net profit of ¥5.4B (+26% YoY).
  • Amvis announced plans to open 16 facilities, steadily progressing to achieve the target of opening 23 facilities in FY24. The company targets utilization rate of 82–85% for existing facilities.

EQT/​Dechra Pharmaceuticals: Recommended Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • At the end of PUSU deadline, EQT and Dechra have agreed a 3,875p/share offer (44% premium, 21.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA, 30.2x Fwd P/E, vs. market leader Zoetis at 20.5x and 28.9x respectively).
  • Other private equity companies may not be able to match the deal’s disintermediation benefits. Considering the short-term issues, I believe investors will accept the offer.
  • My base-case DCF fair-value estimate is 3,568p/share, 7.9% below the offer price. Therefore I set my TP at 3,875p. Spread is 5.8%/8.8% (gross/annualised), I feel the risk/reward is balanced. Long.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Strong H1FY23 Result; FY23 Guidance Unchanged; Expansion Continues and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Strong H1FY23 Result; FY23 Guidance Unchanged; Expansion Continues
  • BILI US, SELL, TP US$14.1, Target Price Change: Thriving Gaming Market Makes Limited Contribution
  • Intelligent Wave Inc. (4847 JP) – 3Q Follow-Up

Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP): Strong H1FY23 Result; FY23 Guidance Unchanged; Expansion Continues

By Tina Banerjee

  • Amvis Holdings Inc (7071 JP) recorded 42% revenue growth to ¥14.7B in H1FY23, driven by 33% increase in bed capacity and stable utilization rate. Operating profit grew 37% to ¥3.9B.
  • The company has guided for FY23 revenue of ¥30.7B (+33% YoY), operating profit of ¥7.9B (+28% YoY), and net profit of ¥5.4B (+26% YoY).
  • Amvis announced plans to open 16 facilities, steadily progressing to achieve the target of opening 23 facilities in FY24. The company targets utilization rate of 82–85% for existing facilities.

BILI US, SELL, TP US$14.1, Target Price Change: Thriving Gaming Market Makes Limited Contribution

By Shawn Yang

  • BILI reported 1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income (4.2%)/in-line vs. our estimate, but BILI’s suggested 2Q23 revenue and gross margin are (10%) and (3.5ppts) lower vs. our prior est.; 
  • Gaming will be BILI’s major swing factor.  Although BILI indicated that 2Q23 gaming revenue could decline 10% YoY, we expect that gaming revenue will still grow 6%~ YoY in 2023.; 
  • We maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 14.1. 1Q23’s earning indicates that BILI’s cost saving measures have led to declining MAU.

Intelligent Wave Inc. (4847 JP) – 3Q Follow-Up

By Sessa Investment Research

  • IWI held an in-person briefing for 3Q FY23/6 results on Friday, May 12 at the Securities Analysts Association of Japan Kabutocho Heiwa Bldg. Annex 3F, which was also livestreamed via IR.
  • Stock Investment Information portal site Bridge Salon.
  • In SIR’s opinion, this 3Q results presentation hosted by IWI’s CEO and Representative Director Kunimitsu Sato was the most upbeat since he assumed office in Sep-2020. 

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Daily Brief Macro: Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: May 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: May 2023
  • India: Net Exports and Investment to Ensure 7%+ RGDP Growth as PSBR Moderates
  • US 10-Year | Jun 2, 2023
  • Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: May 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in May 2023.
  • We provide a list of 25 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in May 2023.
  • The top five market cap stocks that have announced share repurchases include Hyundai Elevator, DGB Financial, Com2Us, Miwon Commercial, and Jeisys Medical.

India: Net Exports and Investment to Ensure 7%+ RGDP Growth as PSBR Moderates

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • RGDP grew 7.2% in FY2023 driven by 10.4% growth in GFCF and 7.5% growth in PCE. Improved terms of trade will boost net exports, ensuring 7.2% growth in FY2024 too.
  • Services (over half of GDP) have averaged 8% annual real growth for the past 25 years (8.7% excluding the covid year), underpinning growth. Manufacturing set to gain from relocating supply-chains.
  • With tax (personal, corporate and GST) revenues growing in double-digits YoY, the fiscal deficit (and PSBR) are undershooting official estimates, helping to crowd-in stronger investment spending. 

US 10-Year | Jun 2, 2023

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The five-year and ten-year yields have reached significant turning points, correcting their previous overbought positions.
  • This shift in sentiment has led to a bullish trend in bonds, which are now considered oversold.
  • The recent Chicago PMI inflation numbers have further contributed to this bond rally.

Bubble or Breadth: Evaluating the State of the Stock Market

By Jeroen Blokland

  • History shows that stock market bubbles – a 100% price boom within a year, followed by a 50%+ crash in the following year – are extremely rare.
  • We apply this metric to current market dynamics and conclude there are no booms around these days.
  • When expanding the definition of a bubble, two of them appear but only in a small subset of the total stock market: Non-profitable Tech stocks and NVIDIA.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR

Morning Views Asia: Tata Motors ADR

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Australia: BrainChip Holdings, Empire Energy, Incannex Healthcare and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling in Australia – Brief Historical Analysis And A Trade Basket
  • Empire Energy Group Ltd – Carpentaria – on the Road to First Gas
  • Incannex Healthcare – Spotlight on Incannex’s progress in psychedelics

Tax-Loss Selling in Australia – Brief Historical Analysis And A Trade Basket

By Travis Lundy

  • I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article last year shows.
  • The general gist of the idea is that retail investors in Australia will take gains on things which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.
  • Below I present a study using data from 2012-2022 of how a basket portfolio trade might work.

Empire Energy Group Ltd – Carpentaria – on the Road to First Gas

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is an oil and gas producer/developer, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) and US oil/gas production assets.
  • EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
  • The NT energy basins are fast developing as strategic high-calorific gas bolsters for east coast Australia’s future domestic requirements, growing Gladstone LNG ullage and potential supply for Darwin’s expanding LNG export terminals, amid funding support from Territory and Federal governments. 

Incannex Healthcare – Spotlight on Incannex’s progress in psychedelics

By Edison Investment Research

Incannex, an Australian-based biotech, has several active studies investigating cannabinoid combinations for a range of conditions, but is also focused on assessing psilocybin for the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). In the psychedelics space, Incannex’s ongoing Phase II trial (Psi-GAD) received an encouraging interim review in March 2023, and we see the completion of the study in Q4 CY23 as a significant catalyst. Incannex has also recently announced developments in its psychedelic clinics business through its subsidiary Clarion Clinics Group. In this note, we provide an overview of psychedelics as therapeutics, the GAD market, and Incannex’s position in the emerging field of psychedelic-based therapies. Our valuation for Incannex stands at US$750.7m or US$11.83 per ADR (vs US$745.8m or US$11.75 per ADR previously).


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