Smartkarma Daily Briefs

On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.
The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading.
SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

[Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?

In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap.
On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

Merger Arb Mondays (15 Sep) – Santos, Soft99, Technopro, Mandom, Shengjing Bank, Dongfeng Motor

I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Offer “Bumped” To A ~84% Disc To NAV From 86.49%

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 26th August, troubled rural commercial bank Shengjing Bank Co Ltd (2066 HK) announced a HK$1.32/Share Offer, a 15.79% premium to undisturbed, and a 86.49% discount to NAV.
Clearly not all is well with Shengjing Bank. And alternatives to the low-balled Offer are slim on the ground.
The Offeror has now bumped terms to HK$1.60 (best & final). That’s a 40.5% premium to undisturbed, but still a 83.96% discount to NAV.

Curator’s Cut: Critical Minerals’ Rise, SEA’s Digital Promise & IT Services in Flux

By Pranav Rao

Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we review the global focus on critical minerals, how ASEAN’s digital economy can grow amidst political uncertainty, and how IT services have fared with AI
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile

“Beautiful Skew” slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.
Last week’s long reco on China Communications Construction (1800 HK) gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

Continental Spin-off (Aumovio) Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

Continental (XTRA: CON) is set to spin off its automotive business, Aumovio, on September 18, 2025.
The business, which has historically operated with low margins and modest growth, is currently undergoing a turnaround.
I estimate Aumovio’s fair value at approximately €56 per share and believe the stock could present an attractive opportunity if it trades down meaningfully following the spin-off.

Weekly Update (Aumovio, WBD, LION)

By Richard Howe

Next week, Continental (CON) will spin off its auto parts business, Aumovio, as a public company.
The first day of regular trading will be September 18, 2025. Shareholders will receive one share of Aumovio for every two shares of Continental.
Aumovio is in the midst of a turnaround, and I was initially skeptical of managements rosy guidance.

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Sep 15

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Extreme Level; ASE Spread Hits Parity; ChipMOS Near Long Level
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Sep)
ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped
Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?
Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities
TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain
Eleven Indian Stocks with Strong Earnings Delivery, Healthy Balance Sheet and Reasonable Valuations
Lonking (3339 HK): Still Well Placed
What the Heck Is Going on with Oracle?

Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments

By Scott Foster

More than $1 billion to be invested in electric power equipment and railway car production, plus a new automation center, to counter tariffs and support long-term expansion in the U.S.
The rising share of sales accounted for by smart factory and other digital technologies should lead to higher profit margins and ROIC over the next several years.
The share price has dropped 13% from its recent high to 26x EPS guidance for FY Mar-26. Buy on weakness for long-term growth. The main risk is a slowing economy.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Extreme Level; ASE Spread Hits Parity; ChipMOS Near Long Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: +24.4% Premium: Remains at Level to Short the ADR Spread
ASE: 0.0% (Parity); Open Fresh Longs Here or at a Discount
ChipMOS: -1.9% Discount; Near Level to Go Long the Spread

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Sep)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped

Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.
Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.
Valuation & Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.

Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

By Patrick Liao

Why does Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”?
From Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.
Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The strong bullish sentiment towards gold has boosted Laopu’s share price, but we still have doubts about whether Laopu can truly benefit from the gold price rally in the future.
In a crisis, gold stocks will face sell-off. We may see an “interesting phenomenon”- The price of gold commodities is soaring, while gold stocks are performing unsatisfactory or even plummeting.
In fact, we already witnessed the inconsistency between the gold commodities prices and Laopu’s share price. This is the core logic we recommend investors take profits on Laopu in time.

TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.
Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.
As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.

Eleven Indian Stocks with Strong Earnings Delivery, Healthy Balance Sheet and Reasonable Valuations

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

India’s spectacular underperformance over the past 12 months relative to Asia has been driven primarily by dismal earnings delivery by corporates, leading to persistent EPS estimate downgrades.
We identify stocks with strong earnings delivery, i.e. EPS estimate upgrades over past 1, 3 and 6 months, forecast EPS growth >10%, net D/E < 1 and PEG < 1.4x.
We screen 11 stocks from industrials, healthcare, materials and property. Most have appreciated significantly over 6- and 12-month timeframes, establishing that the market tends to reward superior earnings delivery.

Lonking (3339 HK): Still Well Placed

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Strong industry sales of wheel loaders (+10.4% YoY) and excavators (+18.8%) in Jul-Aug suggested that the current consensus earnings forecasts are too conservative.
Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) will also benefit from the strength of the equities market, given it has an investment portfolio of Rmb2.4bn, or 18.6% of its market capitalisation.
Given net cash equalling HK$2.02/share, or 66.1% of its share price, its 10.3x PER and 4.5% dividend yield for FY25F still appear undemanding.

What the Heck Is Going on with Oracle?

By Fallacy Alarm

Oracle is on a mission to rival the Big Three cloud providers and its cloud ambitions are part of a theme that will determine GDP growth in the US and globally as a whole.
They are guiding for a 10x revenue increase in cloud computing in just four years which would transform Oracle Cloud from a nobody with 3% market share to a leading player with a business larger than AWS is today.
Most importantly, this guidance is based on contracted revenue, i.e. revenue that their customers (most importantly OpenAI) basically only can get out by declaring bankruptcy.

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Sep 15

Daily Brief India: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Sep)
Eleven Indian Stocks with Strong Earnings Delivery, Healthy Balance Sheet and Reasonable Valuations

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Sep)

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Eleven Indian Stocks with Strong Earnings Delivery, Healthy Balance Sheet and Reasonable Valuations

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

India’s spectacular underperformance over the past 12 months relative to Asia has been driven primarily by dismal earnings delivery by corporates, leading to persistent EPS estimate downgrades.
We identify stocks with strong earnings delivery, i.e. EPS estimate upgrades over past 1, 3 and 6 months, forecast EPS growth >10%, net D/E < 1 and PEG < 1.4x.
We screen 11 stocks from industrials, healthcare, materials and property. Most have appreciated significantly over 6- and 12-month timeframes, establishing that the market tends to reward superior earnings delivery.

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Sep 15

Daily Brief China: Alibaba, Zijin Gold, Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H, NIO , CNOOC Ltd, Laopu Gold, Meituan, Lonking Holdings, GenFleet Therapeutics, SF Intra-City and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold, Chery Auto, Hesai, Mandom, Soft99, Evergrande, Shengjing
Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Offer “Bumped” To A ~84% Disc To NAV From 86.49%
ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei
A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile
Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities
HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap
Lonking (3339 HK): Still Well Placed
Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Margin of Safety
Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading.
SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold, Chery Auto, Hesai, Mandom, Soft99, Evergrande, Shengjing

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs. Hesai Group (HSAI US) H Share listing.
Event-Driven developments: Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP), Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK).

Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Offer “Bumped” To A ~84% Disc To NAV From 86.49%

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 26th August, troubled rural commercial bank Shengjing Bank Co Ltd (2066 HK) announced a HK$1.32/Share Offer, a 15.79% premium to undisturbed, and a 86.49% discount to NAV.
Clearly not all is well with Shengjing Bank. And alternatives to the low-balled Offer are slim on the ground.
The Offeror has now bumped terms to HK$1.60 (best & final). That’s a 40.5% premium to undisturbed, but still a 83.96% discount to NAV.

ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile

“Beautiful Skew” slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.
Last week’s long reco on China Communications Construction (1800 HK) gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The strong bullish sentiment towards gold has boosted Laopu’s share price, but we still have doubts about whether Laopu can truly benefit from the gold price rally in the future.
In a crisis, gold stocks will face sell-off. We may see an “interesting phenomenon”- The price of gold commodities is soaring, while gold stocks are performing unsatisfactory or even plummeting.
In fact, we already witnessed the inconsistency between the gold commodities prices and Laopu’s share price. This is the core logic we recommend investors take profits on Laopu in time.

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

Lonking (3339 HK): Still Well Placed

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Strong industry sales of wheel loaders (+10.4% YoY) and excavators (+18.8%) in Jul-Aug suggested that the current consensus earnings forecasts are too conservative.
Lonking Holdings (3339 HK) will also benefit from the strength of the equities market, given it has an investment portfolio of Rmb2.4bn, or 18.6% of its market capitalisation.
Given net cash equalling HK$2.02/share, or 66.1% of its share price, its 10.3x PER and 4.5% dividend yield for FY25F still appear undemanding.

Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Margin of Safety

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Genfleet, a China-based clinical stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise at least USD 204 million via a Hong Kong listing.
In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product and key product and our thoughts on valuation.
In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation provides margin of safety while sentiment is positive.

Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

By Daniel Hellberg

HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery
H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF
SF Intra’s structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense

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Sep 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Activism Briefs | Noritake and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Activism Briefs | Noritake, Pacific Industrial, Sharing Tech, Helios
Ohayo Japan | Fed Week Awaits
WTR Consumer Stock Index Continues to Outperform the S&P Small Cap 600 – September 12, 2025

Activism Briefs | Noritake, Pacific Industrial, Sharing Tech, Helios

By Mark Chadwick

Effissimo Capital’s stake in Pacific Industrial rose to 7.7%, challenging a below-market MBO at ¥2,050/share (0.7x book); shares trade higher amid expectations of a better offer.
Strategic Capital continues to engage with Noritake – it is working – as the company announces a buyback
Asset Value Investors increased its stake in Sharing Tech to over 15% – financial performance is strong, capital allocation is sensible.

Ohayo Japan | Fed Week Awaits

By Mark Chadwick

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.6% in its best weekly performance since early August and fifth positive week in six
Futures markets are pricing in a quarter-point rate cut with near certainty for the September 17 Fed meeting
Fast Retailing’s domestic UNIQLO sales rose 10% to 1.03 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending August 2025

WTR Consumer Stock Index Continues to Outperform the S&P Small Cap 600 – September 12, 2025

By Water Tower Research

The WTR Consumer Stock Index outperformed the S&P Small Cap 600 once again in August, increasing 5.2% versus a 1.7% gain in the broader index.
The increase in our Consumer Stock Index was primarily due to a 3.6% increase in its prospective EPS, coupled with a modest 0.27x expansion in its 12-month prospective P/E ratio to 16.8x.
For the S&P Small Cap 600, the 1.7% gain in the index was due to a 0.16x gain in the prospective P/E ratio to 16.3x, coupled with a 0.7% increase in prospective EPS.

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Sep 15

Daily Brief Japan: Soft99 Corp, Hitachi Ltd, ENEOS Holdings, Japan Steel Works, LIFULL and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer
[Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?
Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments
ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped
JSW: Backlog 2× Sales, Nuclear Edge Drives Upside
Q3 Follow-Up – LIFULL (2120 JP): September 2, 2025

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer

On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.
The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid.

[Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?

In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap.
On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

Hitachi Ltd. (6501 JP): Short and Long Term Benefit from New U.S. Investments

By Scott Foster

More than $1 billion to be invested in electric power equipment and railway car production, plus a new automation center, to counter tariffs and support long-term expansion in the U.S.
The rising share of sales accounted for by smart factory and other digital technologies should lead to higher profit margins and ROIC over the next several years.
The share price has dropped 13% from its recent high to 26x EPS guidance for FY Mar-26. Buy on weakness for long-term growth. The main risk is a slowing economy.

ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped

Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.
Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.
Valuation & Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.

JSW: Backlog 2× Sales, Nuclear Edge Drives Upside

Macro: Nuclear restarts (Tomari-3, Aug-25) and record defense budgets underpin demand for JSW’s forgings.
Results: Q1 FY25 showed solid YoY growth (revenue +7%, OP +21%) with margins lifted by defense/nuclear.
Valuation/Risks: Shares trade at ~26× P/E on a ¥508 bn backlog; upside rests on execution, with delays the key risk.

Q3 Follow-Up – LIFULL (2120 JP): September 2, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

In Q3 FY2025/9, LIFULL Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) reported consolidated net sales of JPY 21,059 mn, up 7.1% YoY and operating profit of JPY 3,001 mn, up 23.3% YoY .
Operating profit rose substantially, backed by strong performance in the HOME’S Services segment.
Excluding the one-time gain on sale recorded in the same period a year earlier, operating profit doubled on an actual basis, underscoring a notable improvement in profitability.

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Sep 15

Daily Brief Macro: CHARTING COURSE: Comparing the U.S. And China Economies and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

CHARTING COURSE: Comparing the U.S. And China Economies
Twilight of the AI Bull?
AI Productivity and the Promised Land
Actinver Research – Economic Package 2026
Actinver Research – Industrial Activity (July 2025)

CHARTING COURSE: Comparing the U.S. And China Economies

By David Mudd

China’s economy outshines the U.S. economy on nearly all metrics, yet its stock markets continue to trade at a substantial discount. That is beginning to change.
Net International Investment Position of U.S. reversed in 1Q25 by $2 trillion, the largest net outflow in history. In China, onshore repatriation is increasing adding pressure for a stronger CNY.
China’s significant household savings continue to provide a cushion for the government program to deleverage the economy.

Twilight of the AI Bull?

By Cam Hui

The leadership of AI-driven stocks is starting to stumble from bubbly valuation levels, which brings up the warning from Bob Farrell’s Rule #4.
The debate is ongoing as to whether the AI bull is evolving from hyperscaler leadership to the next phase of companies that can better exploit the technology.
The lack of cyclical market leadership is concerning from a technical perspective. We are therefore tactically cautious about the short-term outlook for U.S. equities.

AI Productivity and the Promised Land

By Cam Hui

There has been a lot of excitement over the productivity-enhancing promise of artificial intelligence.
We need to distinguish between how AI affects the economy, and how the benefits of AI adoption are divided between all of the participants in the value chain.
It may be time to look for AI 2.0 investment plays or industries that are likely to capture more of the value of the AI revolution.

Actinver Research – Economic Package 2026

By Actinver

After a year of fiscal consolidation, in 2026 public spending will return to growth to address pending needs.
To achieve this, the Government will rely on a combination of new revenue sources and increased financing.
As a result, debt is expected to remain stable, at around 4.0% of GDP.

Actinver Research – Industrial Activity (July 2025)

By Actinver

In July, industrial activity posted a -1.2% MoM contraction, reflecting weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Mining stood out with a rebound across all of its components.
The observed figure came in below our estimate of -0.3% MoM and the market consensus of -0.2% MoM.

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Sep 14

Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, Mitsubishi Electric, Vietnam Airlines Jsc, UBTech Robotics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence
Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst
MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 9.5% Turnover; US$112m Trade
Overview #34 – China Rocks On: Bull Market Rules

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence

Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.
Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.

Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst

By Jay Cameron

Mitsubishi Electric’s $1 billion acquisition of Nozomi Networks is a strategic move to continue its transition from hardware manufacturing to a leading solutions provider in the expanding industrial cybersecurity market.
This significant deal is expected to create growth and synergy by combining complementary strengths in operational technology (OT) security.
The acquisition represents a major commitment to digital transformation, which is anticipated to have a positive impact on Mitsubishi Electric’s stock performance in the 5-10 year horizon.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 9.5% Turnover; US$112m Trade

FPT Corp,Vietnam Airlines Jsc, Sacombank and Gelex Electricity Jsc will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 19 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.5% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$112m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
The largest passive inflow will be in Masan Group (MSN VN) following a large increase in the free float for the stock.

Overview #34 – China Rocks On: Bull Market Rules

By Rikki Malik

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Change of mindset needed for HK/China as the bull markets broadens out
Signs of excess are rife in many global markets, but no top yet signalled.

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✓ Company Data and News
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Sep 14

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Deep Yellow Ltd, Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$445m Trade
BRMS (IDX: BRMS) – Transitioning to a Mid-Tier Gold Producer
Last Week In Event SPACE: Brickworks/Soul Patts, Shibaura Electronics, News Corp/Fox/REA, Dongfeng

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$445m Trade

There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index while there are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.
Encore Energy (EU US) will replace Boss Energy (BOE AU) in the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

BRMS (IDX: BRMS) – Transitioning to a Mid-Tier Gold Producer

Business Performance – BRMS has delivered explosive revenue and earnings growth, with Citra Palu now producing ~100k oz gold annually at strong margins.
Plans – The company is expanding with a third plant at Citra Palu in 2025 and developing the Gorontalo copper-gold project for 2027.
Growth & Valuation – With ~8 Moz in reserves and NAV leverage, BRMS is positioned to double revenues post-2027, though current valuations already embed high expectations.

Last Week In Event SPACE: Brickworks/Soul Patts, Shibaura Electronics, News Corp/Fox/REA, Dongfeng

By David Blennerhassett

Following shareholder approval, there’ll be an index DELetion for Brickworks (BKW AU), and an index UPweight for Soul Patts (SOL AU). BKW’s last day of trading is the 15th September.
Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP)‘s Offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP). That leaves this to be done by Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), unopposed.
After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan asserts control of News Corp Class B (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Sep 14

Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, Mitsubishi Electric, Vietnam Airlines Jsc, UBTech Robotics and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence
Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst
MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 9.5% Turnover; US$112m Trade
Overview #34 – China Rocks On: Bull Market Rules

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence

Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.
Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.

Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst

By Jay Cameron

Mitsubishi Electric’s $1 billion acquisition of Nozomi Networks is a strategic move to continue its transition from hardware manufacturing to a leading solutions provider in the expanding industrial cybersecurity market.
This significant deal is expected to create growth and synergy by combining complementary strengths in operational technology (OT) security.
The acquisition represents a major commitment to digital transformation, which is anticipated to have a positive impact on Mitsubishi Electric’s stock performance in the 5-10 year horizon.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 9.5% Turnover; US$112m Trade