Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• The word floating around late Friday as books closed was that foreigners had bid strongly. More than the entire Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) offering size in fact.
• The offering is an interesting problem, as discussed before. Different people are going to buy it for different reasons. 
• This insight looks at the breakdown of ratios and the resultant foreign ownership, along with post-offer supply/demand balance.

• The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS Australia A-REIT Index will be implemented at the close on 17 March. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
• Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of A$11.1m. There is limited impact on the index constituents.
• The largest inflows are on Stockland, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Gpt Group and Charter Hall, while the largest outflows are on Goodman Group, Vicinity Centres, Dexus Property and Scentre Group.

• Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) aims to sell around US$9bn worth of  Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), trimming its stake by a third.
• We have looked at the deal in our previous notes, Japan Post Bank Placement – Deal Structure, past Deals, Index, Buyback and Japan Post Bank Placement – Misbehaving. 
• In this note, we talk about the updates since our last note and have a look at the post pricing performance of a few more deals.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments – Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)‘s large offering of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s shares, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) aims to raise up to US$440 million. 
• Event-Driven developments – ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK), Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK), Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB), Olam Group (OLG SP), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP). 

• As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?
• It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.
• The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1^st November) to peak (27^th November) was 43.5%.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• China Jinmao Holdings
• Road King Infrastructure
• Sunny Optical
• Vedanta Resources
• Yanlord Land

• Opportunity in any market exists in anything that causes the perception of the investor to take on a new shape.
• For many years, the Fat Protocol Thesis popularised by Placeholder VC has dominated the perception of the digital asset market.
• But as the market and, more importantly, those who have come to use this new technology platform change, so too does the perception of where value will be captured.