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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: HKBN Ltd, Nanya Technology, NEC Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (06 Mar) – HKBN, Yashili, OZ Minerals, Nitro, Tyro, Golden Energy, GK Goh
  • Memory Monitor: Latest Two Signals Show Inventory Problems Worsening; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya
  • NEC (6701 JP): Positive Orders Trend, Lagging Share Price


Memory Monitor: Latest Two Signals Show Inventory Problems Worsening; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Signal #1 — Micron’s CFO warns that margins will be coming in lower than expected and inventories will remain elevated through FY2023E.
  • Signal #2 — South Korea semiconductor inventories jump 28% MoM, 39.5% YoY.
  • Implications for memory chip manufacturers: Biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya.

NEC (6701 JP): Positive Orders Trend, Lagging Share Price

By Scott Foster

  • Upward trend in new orders suggest that guidance is conservative.
  • Long-Term prospects good with digitalization, 5G and optical-electronic technology for 6G.
  • Lagging share price offers attractive valuations and 42% potential upside to previous high.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Need to Think About How to Make the Market a Place Where Young and Mature Generations Want to Invest

Need to Think About How to Make the Market a Place Where Young and Mature Generations Want to Invest

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The demand for high-dividend stocks is due to the fact that financial assets are skewed toward the elderly and that the elderly have high demand for high-dividend stocks.
  • The under-40s generation, which seeks growth rather than dividends, focus on U.S. equities. Even if the tax deferral allowance is expanded, they are likely to pass through Japanese equities.
  • For asset building, investing in markets with higher returns is good idea. However, considering the market as source of risk money, Japanese equities and Tokyo market aren’t in good condition.

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Daily Brief Macro: Inflation Watch: Is the Inflation Momentum Back Before It Even Disappeared? 5 Pros and 5 Cons and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Inflation Watch: Is the Inflation Momentum Back Before It Even Disappeared? 5 Pros and 5 Cons
  • China’s Reopening: Nuanced Implications Domestically and for the Global Economy
  • A Tale of Two Bubbles
  • China: Bullish Global Catalyst?

Inflation Watch: Is the Inflation Momentum Back Before It Even Disappeared? 5 Pros and 5 Cons

By Andreas Steno

  • Some early indicators of inflation have started to show worrisome signals 6 months down the road
  • Short-Term indicators continue to point to the downside for inflation
  • Is the double-top inflation narrative warranted? Let’s have a look at pros and cons.

China’s Reopening: Nuanced Implications Domestically and for the Global Economy

By Said Desaque

  • China’s government aims to reinvigorate economic growth in 2023 by selective assistance to sectors that have recently experienced regulatory headwinds, notably technology and real estate. 
  • Strategic geopolitical competition between Beijing and the West makes it difficult for technology to be a major source of growth from external demand sources.
  • The reopening of China’s economy could stoke a new wave of commodity inflation that may have hawkish implications for monetary policy in developed markets.

A Tale of Two Bubbles

By Cam Hui

  • It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, NASDAQ 100 violated an uptrend stretching back to the GFC.
  • What’s the outlook for U.S. growth stocks? Have they bottomed?
  • U.S. equities have been leading non-U.S. since the GFC, but much of the outperformance is attributable to the NASDAQ. Can U.S. equities continue to be global leaders?

China: Bullish Global Catalyst?

By Cam Hui

  • Charts of the Euro STOXX 50, MSCI China, and S&P 500 (all in USD) tells a story of differing relative strength.
  • Europe is still the global leader. U.S. equities are likely to be laggards for the remainder of this year.
  • China and Asia are showing signs of a bullish turnaround and could be the catalyst for the next bull phase in equities.

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Daily Brief Health Care: SK Bioscience, BeiGene Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Disappointing 2022 Result; Non-COVID Vaccines Are Key to Revival
  • BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) – Miracles Don’t Always Happen

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Disappointing 2022 Result; Non-COVID Vaccines Are Key to Revival

By Tina Banerjee

  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS) reported sluggish performance in 2022, with revenue and net profit declining 51% and 66%, YoY, respectively, due to the weakening demand of the COVID-19 vaccines.
  • Although the company’s shingles vaccine is the leader in domestic market, it is facing new competition as an international player has launched a new shingles vaccine in Korea this year.
  • SK Bioscience stopped production of its bread-and-butter earning flu vaccine to focus on COVID-19 vaccine, thereby losing market share to rival. Re-entering the market will not be easy.  

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) – Miracles Don’t Always Happen

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • It’s unrealistic to turn losses into profits by relying on BRUKINSA alone. BeiGene needs to have three blockbuster products with US$1 billion sales, which is difficult considering current pipeline situation. 
  • If investors are optimistic about BeiGene, to some extent, they are betting on the success of BeiGene’s model, but of course, they should also bear the corresponding risks and costs. 
  • BeiGene is overvalued, and its current market value has already priced in all positive factors. In this position, we think the risks far outweigh the benefits, because miracles don’t always happen.   

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Daily Brief Financials: SBI Sumishin Net Bank, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, Japan Post Bank, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights
  • EEM Reaction Rise
  • Weekly Deals Digest (05 Mar) – Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, HKBN, Yashili, GK Goh, Golden Energy
  • Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, China Vanke, Hopson Development

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP), an online bank in Japan, has revived its listing plans to raise up to US$440 million (vs the 2022 target of US$1 billion).
  • We previously discussed the IPO in SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO: The Investment Case. The shares will be listed on 29 March.
  • In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that SBI Sumishin Net Bank is fairly valued at the IPO reference price of JPY1,260. We would participate in the IPO.

EEM Reaction Rise

By Thomas Schroeder

  • EEM stage is set for a rise from 38.20/37.80 but will find it hard to get back above 42. Intermediate risk to 36.50 from which point we are more constructive.
  • USD and yield pullbacks are primary inputs amid weak EEM buy volume. Bull yield wedge breakout on the back of high degree bull divergence in yield and the USD.
  • DXY trendline support turn. USD rise has not been aggressive and needs yield to clear 4.25% with a 4.70% target. Risk of a dual yield top exists.

Weekly Deals Digest (05 Mar) – Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, HKBN, Yashili, GK Goh, Golden Energy

By Arun George


Morning Views Asia: Adaro Energy, China Vanke, Hopson Development

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Most Read: Japan Airlines, Nitori Holdings, Life360 Inc, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway-A, Japan Post Bank, Sebang Co Ltd, National Aluminium, Bellevue Gold, SK Innovation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review – OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.
  • Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW – Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, MVIS, Japan Post Bank, Adani, KRX BBIG
  • Northbound Stock Connect Expansion: List Announced; Potential MSCI Adds in May
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy
  • KOSPI Size Indices – Changes in March & Implications
  • CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March
  • OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes
  • K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review – OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.

By Travis Lundy


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW – Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review – OLC, JAL, Renesas IN. 
  • That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).
  • Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba’s disposition changes in the interim.

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
  • There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, MVIS, Japan Post Bank, Adani, KRX BBIG

By Brian Freitas


Northbound Stock Connect Expansion: List Announced; Potential MSCI Adds in May

By Brian Freitas

  • HKEX (388 HK) has announced that the expansion of Northbound Stock Connect eligible stocks will take effect from the start of trading on 13 March.
  • 598 stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 436 stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will be added to Northbound Stock Connect.
  • Currently, we see 43 stocks being added to the MSCI China Index in May (inflows of US$1.42bn), further increasing China’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Big picture: Japan Post (6178 JP) selling 29% of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. 
  • Downer EDI (DOW AU)‘s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. 
  • Hong Kong broadband play HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)said it has been approached by I Squares’ HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. 

KOSPI Size Indices – Changes in March & Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 5 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 4 LargeCap to MidCap, 3 new additions to MidCap, 9 SmallCap to MidCap, 11 MidCap to SmallCap, 3 new additions to SmallCap.
  • The migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the stocks migrating between other segments by a huge margin over the last few months.
  • Given the huge outperformance and looking at how the migrations have performed historically, we’d expect the stocks migrating to MidCap to underperform post implementation of the changes.

CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • The BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN) will rebalance on 17 March while the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) will rebalance on 29 March.
  • There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.
  • There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • The OZ Minerals (OZL AU) Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by BHP Group (BHP AU) will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.
  • OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) is a member of the S&P/ASX100 Index and S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.
  • Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.

K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

By Sanghyun Park


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Daily Brief Australia: Whitehaven Coal, OZ Minerals Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Whitehaven Coal – 35% of Mkt Cap Cash/ Aggressive Capital Allocation The Key
  • OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April
  • OZL Scheme Booklet Posted – 60 Days to Completion

Whitehaven Coal – 35% of Mkt Cap Cash/ Aggressive Capital Allocation The Key

By Sameer Taneja

  • Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) underwhelming capital allocation in H1 2023 may have disappointed investors, but armed with a war chest of 2.47 bn AUD (35% mkt cap), we remain optimistic.
  • The company aims to purchase 240 mn shares ( or about 25% of outstanding shares ) over and above the 10% it completed from last year’s buyback phase. 
  • Trading at 2.2x/3.2x  FY23e/FY24e, the stock is extremely cheap with a conservative dividend yield of 9.1%/6.3% FY23e/FY24e ( assuming a 20% dividend-only payout ratio). 

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

By Arun George

  • The IE considers BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)’s A$28.25 offer for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. 
  • Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.
  • This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.

OZL Scheme Booklet Posted – 60 Days to Completion

By Travis Lundy

  • On 2 March, the Court approved the distribution of the OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) Scheme Booklet, which was posted on 3 March 2023. The Scheme Meeting is 13 April 2023.
  • The Independent Expert has concluded the Scheme is Fair and Reasonable and in the best interests of OZL shareholders. Directors unanimously support.
  • This deal is almost certainly done. The IE report is, as is often the case, enormously informative. Watch the franking credit timing. Not a lot of spread left here. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: S.M.Entertainment Co, GS Retail, SK Innovation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korean Court Rules Against SM Entertainment From Issuing New Shares to Kakao
  • KOSPI Size Indexes Migrants: Official Results & Price Performances So Far
  • K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

Korean Court Rules Against SM Entertainment From Issuing New Shares to Kakao

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 March, it was announced that a Korean court has ruled against SM Entertainment from issuing new shares and CB to Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
  • HYBE’s tender offer period ended on 1 March. It is highly unlikely for HYBE to have successfully completed the tender offer reaching the entire 25% of outstanding shares.
  • We maintain our position of a high probability of Kakao initiating its own tender offer of SM Entertainment shares in the coming weeks at about 140,000/150,000 won or more.

KOSPI Size Indexes Migrants: Official Results & Price Performances So Far

By Sanghyun Park

  • Once again, the profit from Long Short basket trading has also been significant this time. The returns were quite juicy even if the period is shortened to From-February. 
  • The critical question now is whether the juice remains until the effective date. From what I can see, there is still some juice left.
  • This is because it is generally observed that the flow trading window for this event tends to continue beyond the effective date.

K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

By Sanghyun Park


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Daily Brief United States: Broadcom Limited, Life360 Inc, Abbott Laboratories, Plug Power Inc, Veeva Systems Inc Class A, Las Vegas Sands, Culp Inc, Lowe’s Companies Inc, Merck & Co Inc., Okta Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Broadcom’s Strong Quarterly Results In The Light Of Its Acquisition-Led Strategy
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes
  • Abbott Laboratories: Major Drivers
  • Plug Power Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Veeva Systems Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Las Vegas Sands Corp: Major Drivers
  • Gale-Force Headwinds Rage Against Culp Top Line and Profits
  • Lowe’s Companies Inc.: Collaboration With Klein Tools & Other Drivers
  • Merck & Co. Inc.: Licensing Agreement With Kelun Biotech & Other Drivers
  • Okta Inc.: Major Drivers

Broadcom’s Strong Quarterly Results In The Light Of Its Acquisition-Led Strategy

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Broadcom remains as one of the best-positioned semiconductors stocks, but lower topline growth is to be expected going forward.
  • Broadcom has so far done a great job at expanding its product and service offerings through M&A deals.
  • Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) has just reported yet another strong fiscal Q1 2023 quarter, marked by high top and bottom line growth.

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
  • There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.

Abbott Laboratories: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Abbott saw another highly successful quarter and managed an all-around beat as routine testing trends and hospital-based procedures continued to improve progressively in several areas.
  • In the quarter, the sales growth was impacted negatively by a year-over-year decline in the Covid test sales.
  • With the recovery of the manufacturing brand, production of its non-WIC brands has increased.

Plug Power Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Plug Power’s performance in the quarter was very disappointing as it failed to meet the revenue expectations of analysts.
  • The company reported wider than expected losses and it continues to deliver weak results adversely affecting its market sentiment.
  • Plug electrolyzers and cryogenic equipment is anticipated to be used in their operations to create and deliver liquid hydrogen via Plug trailers.

Veeva Systems Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Veeva Systems finished the year on a strong note with both, its revenues as well as earnings exceeding the expectations of analysts as well as the management.
  • The management claims that it was a watershed year for clinical data management, with significant momentum in emergent areas like Safety, Link, and Compass.
  • We give Veeva Systems a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Las Vegas Sands Corp: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Las Vegas Sands delivered a highly disappointing result as it failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The track record in the non-gaming, scale, and diversity makes Las Vegas Sands uniquely position to cater to all the segments of the market.
  • We provide the stock of Las Vegas Sands with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Gale-Force Headwinds Rage Against Culp Top Line and Profits

By Water Tower Research

  • After the close Wednesday, Culp reported a 3QFY23 GAAP EPS loss of $0.73 on sales of $52.5 million, both missing our estimates (loss of $0.49, sales of $57 million) and consensus (loss of $0.62 and $54.9 million).
  • Adjusted for a restructuring charge, the EPS loss was $0.67.
  • Culp continues to confront weak markets in both the Mattress Fabrics (CHF) and Upholstery Fabrics (CUF) segments.

Lowe’s Companies Inc.: Collaboration With Klein Tools & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lowe’s Companies delivered a mixed set of results in the fourth quarter.
  • Another notable category, Paint, saw strong pro-growth driven by its MVPs Pro Paint Rewards and Pro JobSIGHT delivery.
  • Among other updates, Lowe’s collaborated with Klein Tools to give Klein Tools a strong presence in the electrical and tool departments of Lowe’s.

Merck & Co. Inc.: Licensing Agreement With Kelun Biotech & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Merck has delivered a strong quarterly result to end 2022 and surpassed the analyst consensus estimates in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The top-line performance was driven by strength across the company’s key pillars, hospitals, vaccines, and oncology, and a significant contribution from LAGEVRIO.
  • The animal health business of Merck delivered strong operational growth.

Okta Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Okta delivered a strong fourth-quarter performance which was highlighted by an all-around beat as well as a significant improvement in profitability and cash flow.
  • The end of the 2023 fiscal was strong, with sustained improvement in its go-to-market business performance.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Golden Energy & Resources, Halcyon Agri and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Golden Energy (GER SP): The Disconnect Between the Offer and Underlying Assets
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Slater & Gordon; SHL Japan, GK Goh, Nitro Software, Yashili

Golden Energy (GER SP): The Disconnect Between the Offer and Underlying Assets

By Arun George


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Slater & Gordon; SHL Japan, GK Goh, Nitro Software, Yashili

By David Blennerhassett


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