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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mar 05
0

Daily Brief India: National Aluminium and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • The BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN) will rebalance on 17 March while the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) will rebalance on 29 March.
  • There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.
  • There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Japan: Japan Airlines, Nitori Holdings, Japan Post Bank, Japan Post Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, MVIS, Japan Post Bank, Adani, KRX BBIG
  • Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW – Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy
  • ECM Weekly (5th Mar 2023) – Japan Post Bank, Kansai, Vanke, Otsuka, SBI Sumishin, Lu DaoPei, NST, JF

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, MVIS, Japan Post Bank, Adani, KRX BBIG

By Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW – Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review – OLC, JAL, Renesas IN. 
  • That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).
  • Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba’s disposition changes in the interim.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Big picture: Japan Post (6178 JP) selling 29% of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. 
  • Downer EDI (DOW AU)‘s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. 
  • Hong Kong broadband play HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)said it has been approached by I Squares’ HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. 

ECM Weekly (5th Mar 2023) – Japan Post Bank, Kansai, Vanke, Otsuka, SBI Sumishin, Lu DaoPei, NST, JF

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, there were two deals launched this week.
  • For placements, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s planned selldown by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) came earlier than expected.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief China: Unisound AI Technology, Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology-A, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Unisound: A Chinese Unicorn Focused on AI Powered Voice and Speech Processing Technologies
  • China Healthcare Weekly (March.3) – TCM New Policy, Pfizer to Acquire Seagen, Haohai Biological
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Unisound: A Chinese Unicorn Focused on AI Powered Voice and Speech Processing Technologies

By Douglas Kim

  • Founded in 2012, Beijing Yunzhisheng Information Technology Co. (also known as Unisound) is a Chinese company focused on AI powered voice and speech processing technologies.
  • Unisound provides voice recognition, language processing and big data solutions to home appliances, automobile, healthcare and education companies.
  • Since the inception of the company, it has raised US$361 million in funding. 

China Healthcare Weekly (March.3) – TCM New Policy, Pfizer to Acquire Seagen, Haohai Biological

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The General Office of the State Council issued favorable policy for TCM industry. However, TCM still has to face VBP, therefore Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co. (600436 CH) and Gushengtang are our top picks..
  • Pfizer is in talks to acquire Seagen in a deal worth over US$30 billion, but we remain conservative about whether this transaction would ultimately bring expected contributions to Pfizer.
  • Haohai’s business model fails to bring ideal performance. Increasing competition/declining gross margin cast doubts on the outlook of medical aesthetics business. We’re not optimistic about its potential valuation upside.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Silergy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Silergy, Via Tech, Evergreen Marine, Wiwynn

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 3rd): Silergy, Via Tech, Evergreen Marine, Wiwynn

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.8bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Silergy, Via Tech, Evergreen Marine, Wiwynn.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Japan Airlines, Golden Energy & Resources, Halcyon Agri, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Japan Post Holdings, Plug Power Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, MVIS, Japan Post Bank, Adani, KRX BBIG
  • Golden Energy (GER SP): The Disconnect Between the Offer and Underlying Assets
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Slater & Gordon; SHL Japan, GK Goh, Nitro Software, Yashili
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • ECM Weekly (5th Mar 2023) – Japan Post Bank, Kansai, Vanke, Otsuka, SBI Sumishin, Lu DaoPei, NST, JF
  • Plug Power Inc.: Major Drivers

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, HSCEI, HSTECH, STAR50, MVIS, Japan Post Bank, Adani, KRX BBIG

By Brian Freitas

Golden Energy (GER SP): The Disconnect Between the Offer and Underlying Assets

By Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Slater & Gordon; SHL Japan, GK Goh, Nitro Software, Yashili

By David Blennerhassett

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

ECM Weekly (5th Mar 2023) – Japan Post Bank, Kansai, Vanke, Otsuka, SBI Sumishin, Lu DaoPei, NST, JF

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, there were two deals launched this week.
  • For placements, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)‘s planned selldown by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) came earlier than expected.

Plug Power Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Plug Power’s performance in the quarter was very disappointing as it failed to meet the revenue expectations of analysts.
  • The company reported wider than expected losses and it continues to deliver weak results adversely affecting its market sentiment.
  • Plug electrolyzers and cryogenic equipment is anticipated to be used in their operations to create and deliver liquid hydrogen via Plug trailers.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Unisound AI Technology, Broadcom Limited, Life360 Inc, Okta Inc, Snowflake Inc, Splunk Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Unisound: A Chinese Unicorn Focused on AI Powered Voice and Speech Processing Technologies
  • Broadcom’s Strong Quarterly Results In The Light Of Its Acquisition-Led Strategy
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes
  • Okta Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Snowflake Inc.: Acquisition Of LeapYear Technologies & Other Drivers
  • Splunk Inc.: Major Drivers

Unisound: A Chinese Unicorn Focused on AI Powered Voice and Speech Processing Technologies

By Douglas Kim

  • Founded in 2012, Beijing Yunzhisheng Information Technology Co. (also known as Unisound) is a Chinese company focused on AI powered voice and speech processing technologies.
  • Unisound provides voice recognition, language processing and big data solutions to home appliances, automobile, healthcare and education companies.
  • Since the inception of the company, it has raised US$361 million in funding. 

Broadcom’s Strong Quarterly Results In The Light Of Its Acquisition-Led Strategy

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Broadcom remains as one of the best-positioned semiconductors stocks, but lower topline growth is to be expected going forward.
  • Broadcom has so far done a great job at expanding its product and service offerings through M&A deals.
  • Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) has just reported yet another strong fiscal Q1 2023 quarter, marked by high top and bottom line growth.

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

By Brian Freitas

  • There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
  • There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.

Okta Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Okta delivered a strong fourth-quarter performance which was highlighted by an all-around beat as well as a significant improvement in profitability and cash flow.
  • The end of the 2023 fiscal was strong, with sustained improvement in its go-to-market business performance.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Snowflake Inc.: Acquisition Of LeapYear Technologies & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Snowflake had a good quarter, with product revenue increasing by 54% in the fourth quarter and by 70% for the entire fiscal year, reaching $1.9 billion.
  • This was significantly less noticeable at the top end of their customer base and more noticeable among foreign, SMB, and commercial clients.
  • In addition, they intend to acquire LeapYear Technologies to improve their data clean room capabilities and cloud-based data warehousing business.

Splunk Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Splunk completed the year on a positive note and delivered an all-around beat while exceeding its forecasted targets for revenue, total ARR, cloud ARR, operating margin, and free cash flow.
  • In Q4, they increased overall ARR by 18% year on year to $3.674 billion.
  • In Q4, Splunk secured major deals against a large enterprise competitor by demonstrating that adequate security, cloud migration, and pricing are insufficient.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Whitehaven Coal, National Aluminium, OZ Minerals Ltd, SK Innovation, Impala Platinum Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Whitehaven Coal – 35% of Mkt Cap Cash/ Aggressive Capital Allocation The Key
  • CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March
  • OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April
  • OZL Scheme Booklet Posted – 60 Days to Completion
  • K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities
  • Impala Platinum: A Turnaround Is On The Horizon

Whitehaven Coal – 35% of Mkt Cap Cash/ Aggressive Capital Allocation The Key

By Sameer Taneja

  • Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) underwhelming capital allocation in H1 2023 may have disappointed investors, but armed with a war chest of 2.47 bn AUD (35% mkt cap), we remain optimistic.
  • The company aims to purchase 240 mn shares ( or about 25% of outstanding shares ) over and above the 10% it completed from last year’s buyback phase. 
  • Trading at 2.2x/3.2x  FY23e/FY24e, the stock is extremely cheap with a conservative dividend yield of 9.1%/6.3% FY23e/FY24e ( assuming a 20% dividend-only payout ratio). 

CPSE / BHARAT22 / CNXBANK Index Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • The BHARAT 22 ETF (ICICIB22 IN) will rebalance on 17 March while the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) will rebalance on 29 March.
  • There are no constituent changes for the indices in March but there will be capping changes for the stocks and there is a reasonable impact on some stocks.
  • There are stocks that will have opposing flows on the two days, while there are some stocks that will have same way flows from passive trackers.

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

By Arun George

  • The IE considers BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)’s A$28.25 offer for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. 
  • Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.
  • This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.

OZL Scheme Booklet Posted – 60 Days to Completion

By Travis Lundy

  • On 2 March, the Court approved the distribution of the OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) Scheme Booklet, which was posted on 3 March 2023. The Scheme Meeting is 13 April 2023.
  • The Independent Expert has concluded the Scheme is Fair and Reasonable and in the best interests of OZL shareholders. Directors unanimously support.
  • This deal is almost certainly done. The IE report is, as is often the case, enormously informative. Watch the franking credit timing. Not a lot of spread left here. 

K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

By Sanghyun Park

Impala Platinum: A Turnaround Is On The Horizon

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Most PGM prices are below their moving averages, with supply shortages and higher demand en route.
  • Impala Platinum’s stock is priced at a cyclical discount.
  • The stock provides a lucrative dividend opportunity with the firm’s 30% of operating cash flow distribution policy.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology-A, Abbott Laboratories, Veeva Systems Inc Class A, Eli Lilly & Co, Merck & Co Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (March.3) – TCM New Policy, Pfizer to Acquire Seagen, Haohai Biological
  • Abbott Laboratories: Major Drivers
  • Veeva Systems Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Eli Lilly and Company: Collaboration With Entos Pharma & Other Drivers
  • Merck & Co. Inc.: Licensing Agreement With Kelun Biotech & Other Drivers

China Healthcare Weekly (March.3) – TCM New Policy, Pfizer to Acquire Seagen, Haohai Biological

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The General Office of the State Council issued favorable policy for TCM industry. However, TCM still has to face VBP, therefore Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co. (600436 CH) and Gushengtang are our top picks..
  • Pfizer is in talks to acquire Seagen in a deal worth over US$30 billion, but we remain conservative about whether this transaction would ultimately bring expected contributions to Pfizer.
  • Haohai’s business model fails to bring ideal performance. Increasing competition/declining gross margin cast doubts on the outlook of medical aesthetics business. We’re not optimistic about its potential valuation upside.

Abbott Laboratories: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Abbott saw another highly successful quarter and managed an all-around beat as routine testing trends and hospital-based procedures continued to improve progressively in several areas.
  • In the quarter, the sales growth was impacted negatively by a year-over-year decline in the Covid test sales.
  • With the recovery of the manufacturing brand, production of its non-WIC brands has increased.

Veeva Systems Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Veeva Systems finished the year on a strong note with both, its revenues as well as earnings exceeding the expectations of analysts as well as the management.
  • The management claims that it was a watershed year for clinical data management, with significant momentum in emergent areas like Safety, Link, and Compass.
  • We give Veeva Systems a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Eli Lilly and Company: Collaboration With Entos Pharma & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Eli Lilly had a mixed result in the last quarter as the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street, largely on account of the forex headwinds and the influence of Alimta LOE in the U.S.
  • The pharma major did manage an earnings beat.
  • The company has a strong pipeline and received FDA approval for donanemab in early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease and pirtobrutinib in mantle cell lymphoma.

Merck & Co. Inc.: Licensing Agreement With Kelun Biotech & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Merck has delivered a strong quarterly result to end 2022 and surpassed the analyst consensus estimates in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The top-line performance was driven by strength across the company’s key pillars, hospitals, vaccines, and oncology, and a significant contribution from LAGEVRIO.
  • The animal health business of Merck delivered strong operational growth.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Financials: Japan Post Bank, Wuestenrot & Wuerttembergische and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy
  • Quiddity Flow Expectations for DAX Mar 23 Rebal: WUW GR Vs SDAX Seems Interesting

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Big picture: Japan Post (6178 JP) selling 29% of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. 
  • Downer EDI (DOW AU)‘s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. 
  • Hong Kong broadband play HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)said it has been approached by I Squares’ HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. 

Quiddity Flow Expectations for DAX Mar 23 Rebal: WUW GR Vs SDAX Seems Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The March 2023 index changes for the DAX index family were confirmed after the close on Friday 3rd March 2023.
  • There will be one change for DAX, two for MDAX, and two for SDAX mostly in line with our expectations. Separately, there is also a change in TecDAX.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at our expectations for index flows and the recent price and volume performance of the names involved in the index rebalance event.

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Nitori Holdings, S.M.Entertainment Co, GS Retail, Lowe’s Companies Inc, Las Vegas Sands, Dollar Tree Inc, Culp Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW – Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo
  • Korean Court Rules Against SM Entertainment From Issuing New Shares to Kakao
  • KOSPI Size Indexes Migrants: Official Results & Price Performances So Far
  • Lowe’s Companies Inc.: Collaboration With Klein Tools & Other Drivers
  • Las Vegas Sands Corp: Major Drivers
  • Dollar Tree Inc.: Major Drivers
  • Gale-Force Headwinds Rage Against Culp Top Line and Profits

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW – Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review – OLC, JAL, Renesas IN. 
  • That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).
  • Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba’s disposition changes in the interim.

Korean Court Rules Against SM Entertainment From Issuing New Shares to Kakao

By Douglas Kim

  • On 3 March, it was announced that a Korean court has ruled against SM Entertainment from issuing new shares and CB to Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
  • HYBE’s tender offer period ended on 1 March. It is highly unlikely for HYBE to have successfully completed the tender offer reaching the entire 25% of outstanding shares.
  • We maintain our position of a high probability of Kakao initiating its own tender offer of SM Entertainment shares in the coming weeks at about 140,000/150,000 won or more.

KOSPI Size Indexes Migrants: Official Results & Price Performances So Far

By Sanghyun Park

  • Once again, the profit from Long Short basket trading has also been significant this time. The returns were quite juicy even if the period is shortened to From-February. 
  • The critical question now is whether the juice remains until the effective date. From what I can see, there is still some juice left.
  • This is because it is generally observed that the flow trading window for this event tends to continue beyond the effective date.

Lowe’s Companies Inc.: Collaboration With Klein Tools & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lowe’s Companies delivered a mixed set of results in the fourth quarter.
  • Another notable category, Paint, saw strong pro-growth driven by its MVPs Pro Paint Rewards and Pro JobSIGHT delivery.
  • Among other updates, Lowe’s collaborated with Klein Tools to give Klein Tools a strong presence in the electrical and tool departments of Lowe’s.

Las Vegas Sands Corp: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Las Vegas Sands delivered a highly disappointing result as it failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • The track record in the non-gaming, scale, and diversity makes Las Vegas Sands uniquely position to cater to all the segments of the market.
  • We provide the stock of Las Vegas Sands with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Dollar Tree Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Dollar Tree maintained its momentum in the fourth quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
  • Operational income climbed 6.8% to $618.1 million, or 8% of total revenue, and the operating margin fell by 20 basis points.
  • Inventory increased by 24.8%, owing mostly to unit growth from early spring 2023 merchandise receipts, Family Dollar combo expansion and new store unit growth, and cost growth from product inflation.

Gale-Force Headwinds Rage Against Culp Top Line and Profits

By Water Tower Research

  • After the close Wednesday, Culp reported a 3QFY23 GAAP EPS loss of $0.73 on sales of $52.5 million, both missing our estimates (loss of $0.49, sales of $57 million) and consensus (loss of $0.62 and $54.9 million).
  • Adjusted for a restructuring charge, the EPS loss was $0.67.
  • Culp continues to confront weak markets in both the Mattress Fabrics (CHF) and Upholstery Fabrics (CUF) segments.

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