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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 08
0

Daily Brief Financials: SBI Shinsei Bank, PEXA Group, Nikkei 225 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa
  • ASX200 Index Rebalance: PEXA to Replace Pendal
  • EQD | NKY Index: Equity Vol Has yet to React to Increased Bond Vol. Use Current Lull to Pick up Vega

Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa

By David Blennerhassett

  • SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is still expected to buy out SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) minorities sooner rather than later
  • Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.
  • APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.   

ASX200 Index Rebalance: PEXA to Replace Pendal

By Brian Freitas

EQD | NKY Index: Equity Vol Has yet to React to Increased Bond Vol. Use Current Lull to Pick up Vega

By Simon Harris

  • JGB band shifting has been unable to calm down Fixed Income markets
  • The BOJ is being forced to intervene in both bond and currency markets due to a pick-up in volatility
  • Equity vol has yet to react and we see an opportunity to pick-up some gamma/vega

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Jan 08
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Li Auto, Pinduoduo, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi
  • Pinduoduo(PDD.US) 4Q22 Preview: Expect Moderate Margin Beat
  • More Effective for a Company to Show Background when It Raises Its Dividend Outlook

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

By Brian Freitas

Pinduoduo(PDD.US) 4Q22 Preview: Expect Moderate Margin Beat

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect PDD’s total revenue in C4Q22 to be in line with cons., and non-GAAP net income to beat cons. by 9%.
  • Faster-Than-Peers user growth, increase in brand product contribution and newly launched marketing program support PDD’s strong GMV trend and high take rate in the near term.
  • Temu is moving to increase order volume and ASP to improve scale and save logistics cost.

More Effective for a Company to Show Background when It Raises Its Dividend Outlook

By Aki Matsumoto

  • This fiscal year, total dividends paid haven’t increased compared to recovering total net profit. Consequently, the dividend payout ratio has fallen to the low 30% level, normal level for FY2020.
  • The correlations of market capitalization to net profit and to dividends paid both declined from those of the past 10 years, indicating lack of confidence in profits in year ahead.
  • Simply raising the dividend has limited effect on stock price increases. Given that the dividend payout ratio has declined, companies are required to explain how they are using their cash.

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Jan 08
0

Daily Brief Australia: PEXA Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX200 Index Rebalance: PEXA to Replace Pendal

ASX200 Index Rebalance: PEXA to Replace Pendal

By Brian Freitas

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Jan 08
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Halcyon Agri and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Warrego Energy, Acotec Scientific, Halcyon Agri, Thaicom

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Warrego Energy, Acotec Scientific, Halcyon Agri, Thaicom

By David Blennerhassett

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Jan 08
0

Daily Brief South Korea: LG Electronics, Samsung Biologics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • LG Electronics: A SELL Candidate Amid Difficult Business Condition for Consumer Electronics in 2023
  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Near-Term Key Positive Catalysts

LG Electronics: A SELL Candidate Amid Difficult Business Condition for Consumer Electronics in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • After a disappointing earnings results in 4Q 2022, we believe LG Electronics (066570 KS) is a SELL candidate.
  • The decline in housing prices in major countries such as the US and South Korea have negatively impacted consumers’ purchases of consumer appliances. 
  • With the consensus that is likely to cut their operating profit estimates significantly in 2023, we think that LG Electronics’ shares could fall another 20-25% over the next year. 

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): Near-Term Key Positive Catalysts

By Tina Banerjee

  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) is expected to report strong Q4 results, with double-digit revenue growth. Partial operation of Plant 4 will impact profitability, which will be continued through H12023.
  • The Chairman of the company has been selling shares, causing recent pullback in the stock, which should be considered as an attractive entry point.
  • The long-term growth story remains intact, with all eyes being on upcoming conference where the company may unfold its capex plan amid stellar order book and industry demand.

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Jan 08
0

Daily Brief China: Meituan, Li Auto, Pinduoduo, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Alibaba (ADR), Acotec Scientific Holdings, Gushengtang and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan 4Q Food Delivery Updates
  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi
  • Pinduoduo(PDD.US) 4Q22 Preview: Expect Moderate Margin Beat
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • ECM Weekly (8th Jan 2022) – Sinohytec, Beauty Farm, Sula, Kfin, Bionote, Meidong, CIFI, Jinxin Fert
  • Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jan) – Acotec, Halycon, Warrego, Nitro, Norwest, VinFast
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (8 Jan): Tian An, Differ Group, Pharmaron, Joinn Lab, Gushengtang

Meituan 4Q Food Delivery Updates

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Food delivery daily order growth gradually recovered in late Dec
  • Instashopping continued its growth momentum. Community group purchase has transformed into Next Day Delivery
  • With the recovery of restaurants and travel post re-opening, Meituan is expected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

By Brian Freitas

Pinduoduo(PDD.US) 4Q22 Preview: Expect Moderate Margin Beat

By Shawn Yang

  • We expect PDD’s total revenue in C4Q22 to be in line with cons., and non-GAAP net income to beat cons. by 9%.
  • Faster-Than-Peers user growth, increase in brand product contribution and newly launched marketing program support PDD’s strong GMV trend and high take rate in the near term.
  • Temu is moving to increase order volume and ASP to improve scale and save logistics cost.

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

ECM Weekly (8th Jan 2022) – Sinohytec, Beauty Farm, Sula, Kfin, Bionote, Meidong, CIFI, Jinxin Fert

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs
  • On the IPO front,  only the smaller issuers were active with most following through on year end listing plans.
  • On placements front, HK market got going in a jiffy, riding on the coattails of China reopening.

Weekly Deals Digest (08 Jan) – Acotec, Halycon, Warrego, Nitro, Norwest, VinFast

By Arun George

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (8 Jan): Tian An, Differ Group, Pharmaron, Joinn Lab, Gushengtang

By David Blennerhassett

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Jan 08
0

Daily Brief Japan: SBI Shinsei Bank, Nikkei 225, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa
  • EQD | NKY Index: Equity Vol Has yet to React to Increased Bond Vol. Use Current Lull to Pick up Vega
  • More Effective for a Company to Show Background when It Raises Its Dividend Outlook

Last Week In SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Warrego Energy, Korean Bank Activism, Japfa

By David Blennerhassett

  • SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is still expected to buy out SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) minorities sooner rather than later
  • Not one to rest on its laurels, Hancock immediately bumped its Offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) to A$0.36/share, up from A$0.28/share, provided it gets to 40%. We need more popcorn.
  • APCM reckons Korean banks can pay out more than 50% of net income to their shareholders annually.   

EQD | NKY Index: Equity Vol Has yet to React to Increased Bond Vol. Use Current Lull to Pick up Vega

By Simon Harris

  • JGB band shifting has been unable to calm down Fixed Income markets
  • The BOJ is being forced to intervene in both bond and currency markets due to a pick-up in volatility
  • Equity vol has yet to react and we see an opportunity to pick-up some gamma/vega

More Effective for a Company to Show Background when It Raises Its Dividend Outlook

By Aki Matsumoto

  • This fiscal year, total dividends paid haven’t increased compared to recovering total net profit. Consequently, the dividend payout ratio has fallen to the low 30% level, normal level for FY2020.
  • The correlations of market capitalization to net profit and to dividends paid both declined from those of the past 10 years, indicating lack of confidence in profits in year ahead.
  • Simply raising the dividend has limited effect on stock price increases. Given that the dividend payout ratio has declined, companies are required to explain how they are using their cash.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief ESG: Time to Move Forward to Corporate Governance 2.0 and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Time to Move Forward to Corporate Governance 2.0, Where the Substance Will Be Questioned

Time to Move Forward to Corporate Governance 2.0, Where the Substance Will Be Questioned

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although Fujitec’s corporate governance framework has improved in places, the Statutory Auditor and Nominating Committee aren’t functioning, and the Board of Directors with a majority of independent directors isn’t functioning.
  • METI survey shows that 20% of independent directors are friends of CEO, a glimpse of how companies expect independent outside directors to play a role in endorsing executive management policies.
  • With several revisions of Corporate Governance Code, companies have ostensibly made steady progress in corporate governance efforts. However, whether this has been accompanied by substance varies from company to company.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish

Shein Deep Dive:Imitators Perish; Differentiators Flourish

By Shawn Yang

  • Many newcomers are trying to replicate Shein’s path, but none has proven to be successful, as Shein’s moat in supply chain requires longterm down-to-earth work. 
  • PDD’s Temu will be Shein’s biggest challenger because it is pursuing a different model. Instead of penetrating into the supply chain, Temu offers value-for-money, fair quality products from all categories.
  • Although Shein’s foundation remains solid (ladies’ apparel + developed countries), growth is slowing down. We reiterate BUY to PDD and BABA and SELL to SE and VIPS after studying Shein.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 6th): AIA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 6th): AIA, Tencent, AAC Technologies
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jan 6th): AIA, Tencent, AAC Technologies

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jan 6th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Aac Technologies (2018 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 30th):CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in CAB, Fortescue Metals, Westpac, NAB, CSL, Yancoal, Washington H.Soul, Blackmores, De Grey Mining.

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