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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Comfortdelgro Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Comfortdelgro (CD): Stable Vs Volatile SIA

Comfortdelgro (CD): Stable Vs Volatile SIA

By Henry Soediarko

  • It is a recovery play yet its has lagged to SIA. 3 year basis, Comfortdelgro is -46% yet SIA has recovered to only -15% despite the former having better numbers.
  • SIA Free Cash Flow is often in red while Comfortdelgro’s has been consistently on the green. 2021 Comfortdelgro’s FCF was SGD +433 million while SIA was SGD -83 million.
  • Taxi demand has gone up through the roof judging from the price you have to pay. 

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Daily Brief Health Care: Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing), Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Bridgebio Pharma Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Biocytogen Pharma IPO: Large Drug Pipeline but Negatives Outweighs the Positives
  • Japan’s Gender Gap Index Remains Low. Power to Change the Existing Structure Is Still Invisible.
  • Solvency Risk Short Candidates:  BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva

Biocytogen Pharma IPO: Large Drug Pipeline but Negatives Outweighs the Positives

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals (Beijing) (BCP HK) is a biopharmaceutical and pre-clinical research services company with two core products (YH003 and YH001) and 10 other pipeline candidates.
  • The company currently does not have any commercialised products and earns revenue through offering pre-clinical research services and antibody development.
  • Biocytogen’s business model comes with inherent risks such as absence of approved drugs. Hence, we would recommend staying on the side line.

Japan’s Gender Gap Index Remains Low. Power to Change the Existing Structure Is Still Invisible.

By Aki Matsumoto

  • In the area of politics, where there is a noticeable lag, there is a system in the electoral system that actually discourages aspiring politicians from becoming politicians.
  • The social structure of male dominance is nothing more than maintenance of that structure by groups with vested interests, and risk exists that sensitivity to new values will be dulled.
  • Without the forces at work to change existing social structures, the gender gap index isn’t expected to change much next year, but so far we don’t see such forces now.

Solvency Risk Short Candidates:  BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input.  
  • The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
  • This week we flag: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva Inc.

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Daily Brief Financials: Kasikornbank PCL, Swire Pacific (A), Japan Post Insurance, Tezos, Central China Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance: The Last QIR Throws Up One Big Surprise
  • Swire Pacific (19 HK/87 HK) Buyback: Bigger Than It Appears
  • Swire A/B (19 HK / 87 HK) Buyback Programme – It’s REALLY BIG
  • Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) – Reading Between The Lines
  • Swire A/​​B (19 HK /​​ 87 HK)’s BIG Buyback Programme
  • Tornado Cash Blacklisted
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Pakuwon Jati

MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance: The Last QIR Throws Up One Big Surprise

By Brian Freitas

  • As announced, there are 8 adds and 3 deletes for the MSCI Standard indices in Asia Pacific. To trade, there are 8 adds and 2 deletes.
  • Most of the changes are inline with what we forecast. The non-inclusion of Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK) is the big surprise, though that could change.
  • All the adds in China are potential inclusions to the FTSE All-World Index in September and that will add to the passive inflows on the stocks.

Swire Pacific (19 HK/87 HK) Buyback: Bigger Than It Appears

By Brian Freitas


Swire A/B (19 HK / 87 HK) Buyback Programme – It’s REALLY BIG

By Travis Lundy

  • Today Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) (and Swire Pacific Ltd-Cl B (87 HK)) announced earnings, and they announced a large (HK$4bn) buyback.  
  • Details are somewhat thin, but there are a bunch of possibilities, and all of them should have non-negligible impact on Swire and Swire vs Peers. 
  • The immediate market response was to send them up 10% on the day. That puts both at somewhere near one-year highs, but the discount to NAV is still big.

Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) – Reading Between The Lines

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) reported soft Q1 Tuesday on negative existing policy premium growth and higher (covid-related) underwriting claims costs. Guidance was unchanged but JPI also announced a buyback.
  • The buyback structure is designed to keep Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) under 50% to continue to abide by the strictures and goals of the Japan Postal Privatisation Act.
  • 50% or more will be done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback Thursday morning 12 August. The rest will be bought on market. Impact is non-negligible. And JPI is cheap cheap cheap.

Swire A/​​B (19 HK /​​ 87 HK)’s BIG Buyback Programme

By David Blennerhassett

  • Swire Pacific (19 HK) has announced a “small” buyback at HK$4bn, but it is a material portion of ADV.  
  • What remains unknown is how the buyback will be split.  The split will only be known once buyback volumes are announced. 
  • Swire is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.28x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. 

Tornado Cash Blacklisted

By Coinstack

  • Typically, there are one of two ways a cryptocurrency or digital asset comes into existence.
  • The first is through a Fair Launch. A fair launch is a type of crowdfunding in crypto where the project sells tokens to every participant.
  • A fair launch allows for equitable and fair distribution of tokens.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Pakuwon Jati

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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  • ✓ Company Data and News
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Daily Brief Consumer: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd, Betagro Group, Phu Nhuan Jewelry Jsc, Tokyo Base, Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Past A/H Listings Performance – Most of the Deals Haven’t Done Much
  • Betagro Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Muted Long Term Track Record and Operating on Razor Thin Margins
  • Vietnam Consumer Discretionary – Phu Nhuan Jewelry: Hedge Against Rising Inflation Rates
  • Tokyo Base: A Future Abroad
  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO – Peer Comparison & Valuations – Growth & Margins Stand Out Among Peers

Past A/H Listings Performance – Most of the Deals Haven’t Done Much

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (CDF) is gearing up to launch Hong Kong’s largest listing so far this year, with a reported deal size of around US$2-3bn.
  • Prior to the deal launch, we’ve had a quick look at the A/H premium, subscription and past performance of some of the earlier A/H listings.
  • Overall, most of the recent A/H listings haven’t done much over the first month.

Betagro Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Muted Long Term Track Record and Operating on Razor Thin Margins

By Clarence Chu

  • Betagro Group (1737144D TB) is looking to raise about US$600m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
  • Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand. The firm’s products cover all stages of the food value chain including upstream, midstream and downstream.
  • Margins have fluctuated and operating/net margins are razor thin. Over a longer term period, track record hasn’t been the greatest as well.

Vietnam Consumer Discretionary – Phu Nhuan Jewelry: Hedge Against Rising Inflation Rates

By Douglas Kim

  • Phu Nhuan Jewelry Jsc (PNJ VN) is the number one jewelry company in Vietnam. 
  • The company is benefiting from several key catalysts including reduced social distancing measures resulting in higher store visits and sales, hedge against rising inflation, and pent up demand for jewelry. 
  • The combination of higher expected earnings this year along with stable recent prices have resulted in more attractive valuations for the company.

Tokyo Base: A Future Abroad

By Michael Causton

  • Tokyo Base rebounded in 2021 thanks to strong support at home and overseas for its Japan-made designs. 
  • The fashion retailer plans to add new concepts as well as expand more quickly overseas.
  • The Japanese fashion sector has taken a beating in the market but over the medium term there will be recovery for the better retailers, particularly those with potential overseas.

Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit IPO – Peer Comparison & Valuations – Growth & Margins Stand Out Among Peers

By Ethan Aw

  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHJF) is a multi-brand fresh fruit distributor in China with an end-to-end supply chain. They have 1.0% market share as China’s second largest fruit distributor.
  • CHJF had grown at an impressive rate even in the face of COVID-19. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison of CHJF with its listed peers.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Daily Brief Japan: Japan Post Insurance, Toyo Corp, Tokyo Base, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) – Reading Between The Lines
  • Toyo Tecnica (8151) – BIG Buyback
  • Tokyo Base: A Future Abroad
  • Japan’s Gender Gap Index Remains Low. Power to Change the Existing Structure Is Still Invisible.

Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) – Reading Between The Lines

By Travis Lundy

  • Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) reported soft Q1 Tuesday on negative existing policy premium growth and higher (covid-related) underwriting claims costs. Guidance was unchanged but JPI also announced a buyback.
  • The buyback structure is designed to keep Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) under 50% to continue to abide by the strictures and goals of the Japan Postal Privatisation Act.
  • 50% or more will be done in a ToSTNeT-3 buyback Thursday morning 12 August. The rest will be bought on market. Impact is non-negligible. And JPI is cheap cheap cheap.

Toyo Tecnica (8151) – BIG Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Toyo Corp (8151 JP) is a smallcap electronics firm specialising in sensors/testers/loggers for industrial and data system processes, large scale antennae systems, high tech medical equipment, remote sensing equipment, etc. 
  • They have seen their (extraordinarily seasonal) revenues go mostly nowhere over the past ten years, but they have, until recently, accumulated cash and securities. 
  • On 10 August, the company announced a LARGE buyback of up to 8.44% of shares out. The details suggest

Tokyo Base: A Future Abroad

By Michael Causton

  • Tokyo Base rebounded in 2021 thanks to strong support at home and overseas for its Japan-made designs. 
  • The fashion retailer plans to add new concepts as well as expand more quickly overseas.
  • The Japanese fashion sector has taken a beating in the market but over the medium term there will be recovery for the better retailers, particularly those with potential overseas.

Japan’s Gender Gap Index Remains Low. Power to Change the Existing Structure Is Still Invisible.

By Aki Matsumoto

  • In the area of politics, where there is a noticeable lag, there is a system in the electoral system that actually discourages aspiring politicians from becoming politicians.
  • The social structure of male dominance is nothing more than maintenance of that structure by groups with vested interests, and risk exists that sensitivity to new values will be dulled.
  • Without the forces at work to change existing social structures, the gender gap index isn’t expected to change much next year, but so far we don’t see such forces now.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Thailand: Kasikornbank PCL, Betagro Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance: The Last QIR Throws Up One Big Surprise
  • Betagro Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Muted Long Term Track Record and Operating on Razor Thin Margins

MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance: The Last QIR Throws Up One Big Surprise

By Brian Freitas

  • As announced, there are 8 adds and 3 deletes for the MSCI Standard indices in Asia Pacific. To trade, there are 8 adds and 2 deletes.
  • Most of the changes are inline with what we forecast. The non-inclusion of Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK) is the big surprise, though that could change.
  • All the adds in China are potential inclusions to the FTSE All-World Index in September and that will add to the passive inflows on the stocks.

Betagro Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Muted Long Term Track Record and Operating on Razor Thin Margins

By Clarence Chu

  • Betagro Group (1737144D TB) is looking to raise about US$600m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
  • Betagro is an integrated agro-industrial and food business in Thailand. The firm’s products cover all stages of the food value chain including upstream, midstream and downstream.
  • Margins have fluctuated and operating/net margins are razor thin. Over a longer term period, track record hasn’t been the greatest as well.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief South Korea: Kakao Pay and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • The Launch of Apple Pay Is Likely to Result in Market Share Losses for Kakao Pay

The Launch of Apple Pay Is Likely to Result in Market Share Losses for Kakao Pay

By Douglas Kim

  • In the past several days, there have been numerous local media outlets that have mentioned about a potential launch of Apple Pay in Korea in the coming months. 
  • We believe the launch of Apple Pay in Korea could occur in the next 6-12 months and this is likely to further heighten the competitive pressures on Kakao Pay.
  • We continue to be concerned about the lofty valuation multiples of Kakao Pay as it is trading at 165x P/E (2024E) and 5.1x P/B (2024E). 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Indonesia: Central China Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Pakuwon Jati

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Pakuwon Jati

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Singapore: Comfortdelgro Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Comfortdelgro (CD): Stable Vs Volatile SIA

Comfortdelgro (CD): Stable Vs Volatile SIA

By Henry Soediarko

  • It is a recovery play yet its has lagged to SIA. 3 year basis, Comfortdelgro is -46% yet SIA has recovered to only -15% despite the former having better numbers.
  • SIA Free Cash Flow is often in red while Comfortdelgro’s has been consistently on the green. 2021 Comfortdelgro’s FCF was SGD +433 million while SIA was SGD -83 million.
  • Taxi demand has gone up through the roof judging from the price you have to pay. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief United States: Tezos, Freshworks, Bridgebio Pharma Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Tornado Cash Blacklisted
  • Confident In Growth Opportunities. Weak Q3FY22 Billings Guidance Does Not Change Our Bullish Thesis
  • Solvency Risk Short Candidates:  BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva

Tornado Cash Blacklisted

By Coinstack

  • Typically, there are one of two ways a cryptocurrency or digital asset comes into existence.
  • The first is through a Fair Launch. A fair launch is a type of crowdfunding in crypto where the project sells tokens to every participant.
  • A fair launch allows for equitable and fair distribution of tokens.

Confident In Growth Opportunities. Weak Q3FY22 Billings Guidance Does Not Change Our Bullish Thesis

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Freshworks (FRSH US)  reported solid 2QFY22 results, and the company beat all key estimates, showed strong revenue growth of 37% YoY, and added ~1,800 net new customers. 
  • Welcomed high-profile new customers such as Cloudera, Dynatrace, Sterling Bank, Thomas Cook, World Market, Angi Home, and more. 
  • Shares of Freshworks (FRSH US)  have been exposed to heightened volatility lately, which we think provides long-term investors with an opportunity. 

Solvency Risk Short Candidates:  BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model seeks companies facing dangerously high leverage coupled with negative or declining cash flows.  It considers interest expense, capex and short term maturities for additional input.  
  • The companies may not be viable given cash flows and capital structures.  These shorts tend to have  higher betas  and can have strong down moves as the crisis is recognized.
  • This week we flag: BridgeBio, Wayfair, Archaea Energy, Enviva Inc.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars