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Daily Brief United States: Binance Coin, Landsea Homes Corp, Sumo Logic Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Binance Volume Recovers Despite Mass Outflows
  • Building in The Big Leagues
  • Sizable Beat: Sumo Logic Reported Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results

Binance Volume Recovers Despite Mass Outflows

By Kaiko

  • Price Movements: Binance’s BUSD stablecoin, BNB token, and staking token bETH have had a volatile week amid mass withdrawals.
  • Market Liquidity: Throughout December, BTC market depth on Coinbase has increased 46% while on Binance, depth is down 5%.
  • Derivatives: Open interest for BTC and ETH perpetual futures has nearly halved since November. 

Building in The Big Leagues

By subSPAC

  • A perfect storm of inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and recessionary fears in 2022 has rocked the Housing market.
  • This is especially true for home builders like Landsea Homes, which went public through a SPAC last year.
  • While not a household name, Landsea has firmly established itself as an affordable builder for first-time home buyers.

Sizable Beat: Sumo Logic Reported Better Than Expected 3QFY23 Results

By Andrei Zakharov

  • We maintain a bullish view on Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)  after the company reported stronger than expected 3QFY23 revenues and management updated its financial guidance for FY23. 
  • We were impressed with subscription revenue growth, strong gross margins, and lower-than-expected operating loss. Sumo Logic Inc (SUMO US)  increased FY23 revenue guidance to $298M-$299M.
  • Our estimates suggest the company will cross the $300M ARR mark in 2022 and the stock currently trades at a discount to the 20%+ growth peer group.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Sembcorp Marine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Straits Times Index Quiddity Leaderboard Mar 23: SMM Addition Could Cause SATS or KDCREIT Deletion

Straits Times Index Quiddity Leaderboard Mar 23: SMM Addition Could Cause SATS or KDCREIT Deletion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA


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Daily Brief Indonesia: Bukalapak, Lifestyle International Holdings, GoTo, Venteny and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Opportunity from Adversity
  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings
  • GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry Follow-Up – Has Corrected but Has Traded Relatively Little Volume
  • Venteny Raises $21m Via Indonesia IPO

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Opportunity from Adversity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • The ironically named warung-tech segment in Indonesia has seen a recent spate of layoffs by a number of key players, as the path to profitability becomes the key focus. 
  • One company that stands out as a potential beneficiary is Bukalapak, which is already the dominant player in this space through its Mitra business, especially outside Tier 1 cities. 
  • Bukalapak saw some dramatic improvements in both take rates and contribution margins in 3Q2022, with more to come in 4Q2022 and beyond, from both its Mitra and Specialty store segments.

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry Follow-Up – Has Corrected but Has Traded Relatively Little Volume

By Sumeet Singh

  • GoTo pre-IPO shareholders were released from the lockup on 1st Dec 2022, which led to a 47% slide in its share price.
  • We had written about the upcoming lockup expiry in our earlier note, GoTo IPO Lockup Expiry – US$13bn Lockup Release or in Other Words, the Real IPO.
  • While the price appears to be settling down now, given the intra-day trading limits in Indonesia,  very little volumes have been transacted compared to the shares released from lockup.

Venteny Raises $21m Via Indonesia IPO

By Tech in Asia

  • The firm, which provides growth funding and human resource services, went public under the ticker symbol VTNY.
  • Venteny offered around 930 million shares – representing 15% of its enlarged share pool – at a price of 360 rupiah (US$0.023) apiece.
  • The company raised US$21 million, pegging its valuation at around US$158 million.

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Daily Brief China: Kanzhun, Kuaishou Technology, Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry, Cambricon Technologies Corp, CIFI Holdings, Alibaba (ADR), Lifestyle International Holdings, Dmall Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Boss Zhipin (2076 HK | BZ US) HK Dual Primary Listing on 22 Dec – Index, Southbound, and SPECIAL
  • China Internet Weekly (19Dec2022): Trip.com, Kuaishou, IQiyi, Activision Blizzard
  • Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK) IPO: Pandemic Blemishes Near-Term Growth Prospect
  • Cambricon Technologies: Trade Blacklist by the US Govt Likely to Have Long-Term Negative Impact
  • CIFI Holdings Placement – Won’t Do Much to Alleviate Debt Profile. Latest Deal Underwater
  • BABA Key Sell Points
  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings
  • Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings
  • Dmall Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Boss Zhipin (2076 HK | BZ US) HK Dual Primary Listing on 22 Dec – Index, Southbound, and SPECIAL

By Travis Lundy

  • Kanzhun (BZ US) a.k.a. has been listed in the US since about the same time as DiDi Global (DIDI US), and it had similar but minor tech issues pre-listing. 
  • On Friday 16 December, the company announced it would conduct a Listing by Introduction in Hong Kong under the ticker Zhipin (2076 HK), listing on 22 Dec. 
  • That creates an interesting launch supply/demand dynamic, likely HS Tech inclusion in March 2023, and then Southbound much later in 2023.

China Internet Weekly (19Dec2022): Trip.com, Kuaishou, IQiyi, Activision Blizzard

By Ming Lu

  • Trip.com’s revenue increased by 29% YoY and adjusted EBITDA increased 164% YoY in 3Q22.
  • Kuaishou announced that the views of short play increased by 40% in 2022.
  • Activision Blizzard announced that they are looking for a new agency in China.

Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK) IPO: Pandemic Blemishes Near-Term Growth Prospect

By Tina Banerjee

  • Beauty Farm Medical and Health Industry (BFM HK) is the largest provider of traditional beauty services and the fourth largest non-surgical aesthetic medical service provider in China.
  • The company seeks to raise $300 million from an IPO in Hong Kong market. Morgan Stanley, Haitong International, and Huatai International are the joint sponsors for the proposed IPO.
  • COVID-19 has hurt recent financial performance of the company and forced it to shut many of the stores in multiple locations. Further, stretched valuation make the IPO unappealing to investors.

Cambricon Technologies: Trade Blacklist by the US Govt Likely to Have Long-Term Negative Impact

By Douglas Kim

  • It was recently announced that US government put 36 Chinese companies including Cambricon Technologies on its trade blacklist that can restrict the semiconductor maker’s access to US technologies and products.
  • The US government has determined that Cambricon Technologies and these other Chinese companies pose risk to the US national security.
  • We believe that Cambricon Technologies being included in the trade blacklist by the US government is likely to have a long-term negative impact on the company.

CIFI Holdings Placement – Won’t Do Much to Alleviate Debt Profile. Latest Deal Underwater

By Clarence Chu

  • CIFI Holdings (884 HK) is looking to raise US$127m in a top-up placement. Proceeds from the raising are expected to refinance its existing loans and for general corporate purposes.
  • While the deal represents just 2.1 days of three month ADV, total shares offered would amount to 7.5% of current mcap. 
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

BABA Key Sell Points

By Thomas Schroeder

  • BABA ADR shows well defined range trade points as the rising wedge matures. 173 stands out as formidable sell resistance and 157 the level to crack.
  • MACD trendline coincides the “0” turn level that is expected to cap the upside near term and induce fresh down leg. The May break does send a forward weak signal.
  • The macro picture continues to warn of a 135 retest in 2023. Current rising wedge is corrective in nature.

Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Morning Views Asia: China South City, Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Lifestyle International Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Dmall Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Dmall Inc (1751691D CH) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Credit Suisse and CMB International.
  • Dmall provides cloud-based, end-to-end SaaS platforms purpose-built for the local retail industry. 
  • Its service offerings consist of a retail core service cloud, an e-commerce service cloud and a marketing and advertising service cloud. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Fujitec Co Ltd, Recruit Holdings, Oriental Land, Softbank Group, ipet Holdings, Dream Incubator, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fujitec (6406) Activism Levelling Up – A Board Spill to Come?
  • 2022 High Conviction Recruit: More Room for Shares to Fall
  • Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs, No Longer Enticing Investors, It’s Likely The Start Of The Breakdown
  • Softbank Group – Requiem for WeWork’s Premium Valuation
  • IPet Holdings (7339 JP) – Tender Offer Extended But No Biggie
  • Dream Incubator (4310 JP) – An Interesting Exit and Attractive Valuation for Future Growth
  • The Problem Isn’t for the Subsidiary Shareholders but for the Parent Company Shareholders

Fujitec (6406) Activism Levelling Up – A Board Spill to Come?

By Travis Lundy


2022 High Conviction Recruit: More Room for Shares to Fall

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • It is time we review our 2022 high conviction call. Our conviction short Recruit has fallen 41.5% since we made our call on the stock on 01st December 2022.
  • Though Staffing and Matching & Solutions businesses have bounced back post-Covid, HR Tech biz’s earnings have started to fall with weakening of labour markets.
  • With global recruitment markets facing challenges with weakening of global economies, we think Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ‘s shares have further room to fall in 2023E.

Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs, No Longer Enticing Investors, It’s Likely The Start Of The Breakdown

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • As earnings recovered following the COVID drop, Oriental Land (4661 JP)’s FY+2 EV/OP returned to around 40-60x range, which in our opinion is too expensive, especially in current market conditions.
  • The positivity surrounding the opening of Fantasy Springs got investors to pay huge multiples but Fantasy Springs is no longer looking enticing to investors.
  • With a miss and a downgrade to FY23 guidance on the horizon, we are expecting OLC’s share-price to break the long-term trend to the downside in the next few months.

Softbank Group – Requiem for WeWork’s Premium Valuation

By Kirk Boodry

  • The market cap of Vision Fund portfolio company The We Company (WeWork) (WE US) has fallen decisively below that of rival IWG PLC (IWG LN) for the first time
  • Still despite WeWork’s constant drag on portfolio returns including c. $500mn this quarter, Vision Fund remains on track to end the quarter in the black (+$2bn QTD)
  • The holding company discount appears to have stabilized at 35% but this seems a bit steep with markets volatile again and a move to 40% would not surprise

IPet Holdings (7339 JP) – Tender Offer Extended But No Biggie

By Travis Lundy

  • On 8 November, major Japanese life insurer Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced it would buy out leading pet insurer ipet Holdings (7339 JP). Yes, you read that right.
  • Japanese listed VC/PE firm and incubator Dream Incubator Inc (4310 JP) owns 55% and agreed to tender. Tender success is dependent on getting 66.7%. 
  • Today the buyer extended for 10 days because it had received approval under Article 271-22 Para 1 of the Insurance Business Act, triggering a requirement to refile/extend.

Dream Incubator (4310 JP) – An Interesting Exit and Attractive Valuation for Future Growth

By Travis Lundy

  • In early November, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) announced it would buy ipet Holdings (7339 JP), of which listed VC/PE/incubator Dream Incubator (4310 JP) owned 55%. DI agreed. 
  • Dream Incubator’s exit is worth ¥21.54bn in cash and ¥18.2bn in extraordinary gains on the consolidated financial statements for March 2023. 
  • That is nice. They have promised to deliver ¥10bn of proceeds to shareholders and reinvest the other ¥5bn to grow their consulting business. It’s a nice little asset.

The Problem Isn’t for the Subsidiary Shareholders but for the Parent Company Shareholders

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Both Kappa Kreate and ATOM are almost completely controlled by their parent company, ColoWide, and we cannot expect corporate governance practices that would actually be a relief to minority shareholders.
  • With the parent company in full control, the subsidiary’s minority shareholders are likely to be aware that the interests of the parent take precedence over those of the minority shareholders.
  • Parent company shareholders shouldn’t tolerate continuing to own subsidiaries that damage their interests. The problem isn’t a problem of the interests of the subsidiary’s shareholders, but of the parent’s shareholders.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Wiwynn Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Wiwynn Corp
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 16th): Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Tianqi Lithium
  • Northbound Flows (Dec 16th): CMB, Shanghai Intl Airport, Tongwei
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 16th): Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 16th): Wiwynn Corp

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 16th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • Overall short interests decreased by 1.5% WOW. We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn Corp.

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 16th): Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Tianqi Lithium

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 113.5% as of Dec 16th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -1.9ppt weeok on week, led by health care, consumer discretionary, energy and offset by consumer staples, real estate.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Fuyao Glass, Tianqi Lithium, Cansino Biologics, Air China, Cosco Ship Holding.

Northbound Flows (Dec 16th): CMB, Shanghai Intl Airport, Tongwei

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 16th.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$101.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, communication services sectors, and offset by industrials, materials.
  • We highlight flows for China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Intl Airport, Tongwei.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 16th): Meituan, Tencent, China Mobile

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 16th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight inflows into Meituan, Tencent, and outflows from China Mobile.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Buy China Education Group on China Private Higher Education Sector Recovery and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Buy China Education Group on China Private Higher Education Sector Recovery

Buy China Education Group on China Private Higher Education Sector Recovery

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • China private higher education sector is recovering with the supportive government policy
  • The sector trades at single digit P/E, which is attractive
  • China Education Group with its largest scale and solid trade record is a good candidate for investment

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Argentina and Messi Triumph! Recession Fears Persist – No Break for Equities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Argentina and Messi Triumph! Recession Fears Persist – No Break for Equities
  • China Makes U-Turn on COVID Policy – Here Are the Direct Impacts and Investment Opportunities
  • China Private Higher Education Sector Is Recovering
  • China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary
  • The Innovations Portfolios – Week Four

Good Morning Japan |Argentina and Messi Triumph! Recession Fears Persist – No Break for Equities

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS:  WCUP: Argentina/Messi prevail; SPX -2.1%WoW on recession narrative; SPX option expiry exacerbates moves;  Calls for new TESLA CEO; GS to cut 8% of workforce;  Covid spreads in China
  • JAPAN:  NKY Futs at -0.9% vs Cash;  Defense Bill Approved – no tax hike till 2024; Lawson’s Seijo Ishii IPO postponed; Renesas suspends China ops on Covid; Decarbonization-related investments unabated
  • DAILY NUGGET:  We look a the another attempt of the Japanese government at regional revitalization. Smells of pork barrel spending to us.

China Makes U-Turn on COVID Policy – Here Are the Direct Impacts and Investment Opportunities

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China’s relaxation of COVID-19 control measures is much faster than expected. Due to rising infection rate and mortality rate, China would bear some pressure in the short term. 
  • We analyzed the direct impacts due to COVID policy shift and related investment opportunities. The hardest time of three-year COVID-19 has passed.The playbook of the pandemic is about to end.
  • With the new leadership taking office, China will be more committed to economic growth after the Two Sessions. Starting from 2023H2, China could formulate independent financial/monetary policies. China will change. 

China Private Higher Education Sector Is Recovering

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • On December 14, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035), supporting private education in China.
  • Private higher education is a necessary complement to the public higher education in China.
  • Private higher education sector is an attractive sector for investing now.

China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While China’s U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.
  • Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.
  • It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&B stocks like Haidilao (6862 HK), Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) and Helen’s (9869 HK) which have almost doubled from trough.

The Innovations Portfolios – Week Four

By Pyari Menon

  • We again write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their inclusion.
  • The three companies we write about this week are Mastercard (MA US) , Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US) and Pearson Plc (PSON LN) 
  • For the four weeks ended 16 Dec the combined innovation portfolio was -1.1%, versus DJIA -2.4%, S&P500 -2.8%, Nasdaq -4.0% & MSCI-ACWI-ETF -2.3%, all in US$ terms.

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Daily Brief ECM: Korea FSC’s Official Rule Changes for Local IPOs & Key Takeaways and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea FSC’s Official Rule Changes for Local IPOs & Key Takeaways

Korea FSC’s Official Rule Changes for Local IPOs & Key Takeaways

By Sanghyun Park

  • Extending bookbuilding period to seven days (and test-the-waters) is unlikely to make any real difference. Leaving the financial capacity check to underwriters will likely cause sharp confusion in the market.
  • The purpose of penalizing so-called hot money, like flippers and non-pricing institutions, is understandable. However, whether FSC has fully considered the side effects caused by uniformly applying this is questionable.
  • Expanding the allowable price range on a listing day is the most crucial point we should pay attention to, and we must design a post-IPO trading strategy accordingly.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance
  • MSCI Korea: An Early Assessment of February Index Review
  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 Dec) – Toyo, Genesis/St Barbara, Norwest, Nitro, Tyro, Elmo, Yashili, O2Micro
  • KOSPI Size Index: Early Preview at One Fourth into Screening Period
  • Weekly Deals Digest (18 Dec) – Acotec, Yashili, Toshiba, Toyo, Genesis, Norwest, O2Micro, VinFast

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: Day 1 Flows & Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • The Yuanta/P-shares Dividend Plus ETF (0056 TT) started to rebalance its holdings on Friday and will continue to do so for the next 4 trading days.
  • Stocks with buy flows dropped 1.82% on average on Friday while the stocks with sell flows rose 1.03%. On a flow weighted basis, the numbers were -2.01% vs +1.09%.
  • Given the large volumes at auction and the large moves on stocks, we cannot rule out the possibility that a lot of pre-positions were unwound at the close on Friday.

MSCI Korea: An Early Assessment of February Index Review

By Sanghyun Park

  • MSCI’s quarterly comprehensive index review begins with the February review. QIR disappears, and all quarters are subject to the SAIR rules.
  • Currently, no constituents face deletion risk. On the other hand, we have three potential additions: Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS), Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS), and Kakao Pay (377300 KS).
  • Meritz Financial will likely take Meritz Fire’s place through a Continuation. Kakao’s chances have increased significantly due to the recent price rise and the comprehensive index review.

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Dec) – Toyo, Genesis/St Barbara, Norwest, Nitro, Tyro, Elmo, Yashili, O2Micro

By Arun George


KOSPI Size Index: Early Preview at One Fourth into Screening Period

By Sanghyun Park


Weekly Deals Digest (18 Dec) – Acotec, Yashili, Toshiba, Toyo, Genesis, Norwest, O2Micro, VinFast

By Arun George


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