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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Indonesia: Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Link Net and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ): LQ45 & MSCI Inclusion Done, FTSE Coming Up
  • Link Net MTO Set to Launch as Axiata Completes Stake Acquisition

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ): LQ45 & MSCI Inclusion Done, FTSE Coming Up

By Brian Freitas


Link Net MTO Set to Launch as Axiata Completes Stake Acquisition

By Arun George

  • Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) and XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) completed the acquisition of a combined 66.03% interest in Link Net (LINK IJ) at IDR4,800 per share. 
  • Axiata will disclose the details of the MTO in due course. We think that the MTO opens on 7 July with the earliest possible close of 11 August. 
  • At the last close, the gross and annualised spread of a 19 August payment is 3.7% and 23.7%, respectively.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Industrials: Toshiba Corp, Kepco Engineering & Construction, Recruit Holdings, Samsung C&T, Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability
  • Discussing How We Should Time the KEPCO E&C Block Deal
  • 2022 High Conviction – Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets
  • Samsung C&T and Hyundai E&C: Two Main Beneficiaries of Neom (World’s Biggest Construction Project)
  • Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Preparing to Take Off

Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability

By Travis Lundy

  • An article this morning in the Yomiuri suggested JIC was bidding, even though they have not been in any “lists of 8 bidders” I have seen. The market yawned. 
  • An article this evening says bidders are offering “up to ¥7,000/share” but there is a range of pricing and conditions. Not surprising, but we know little. 
  • Shareholder structure matters. This has been event-y for a long time so I expect not many new buyers are ready to come in. This just shifts the range. And risk.

Discussing How We Should Time the KEPCO E&C Block Deal

By Sanghyun Park

  • Since KEPCO announced the sale of its stake in KEPCO E&C, this will happen. But the question is when, and the market was betting that it would not happen immediately.
  • But these bets collapsed yesterday. It is because Choo Kyung-ho, Deputy Prime Minister of Economy, publicly made remarks yesterday that seemed to pressure KEPCO to make additional self-rescue efforts.
  • KEPCO may aim at the level of ₩60,000 by applying a 5-7% discount rate from the mid-₩60,000 price. With this price in mind, we need to time this block deal.

2022 High Conviction – Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) shares have declined 44.35% YTD as the company’s earnings have started normalising following easing off of Covid-19 conditions.
  • 4QFY03/2022 results showed that the strong growth in earnings that the company experienced in FY03/2022 has started to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets.
  • With weakening earnings, we think there is further downside and Recruit will be a good short over the next few weeks.

Samsung C&T and Hyundai E&C: Two Main Beneficiaries of Neom (World’s Biggest Construction Project)

By Douglas Kim

  • Neom is the largest construction project in the world with total project size of nearly $500 billion. 
  • Neom has started to provide construction project awards for key projects in 1H 2022. Hyundai E&C and Samsung C&T consortium recently won a project estimated at $1 billion for Neom. 
  • Samsung C&T and Hyundai E&C are two key companies in Korea that will be long-term beneficiaries of the Neom futuristic city construction in Saudi Arabia. 

Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Preparing to Take Off

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Share price of Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) underperformed that for Air China Ltd (753 HK) by wide margin in this year, which we believe is not justified.
  • Removal of lockdowns in various districts in Beijing and the revival of international passengers will be the major driver for BCIA to close the valuation gap.
  • The gradual relaxation of inbound international passengers at Beijing and the potential for a full border opening in early next years are the catalysts for BCIA’s performance.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Bottom-Up: Oriental Watch, Bandhan Bank Ltd, Recruit Holdings, Samsung C&T, Pola Orbis Holdings, Banco Do Brasil Sa, Kiatnakin Bank, Las Vegas Sands, Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Oriental Watch: Good Results in the Bag, Cautious H1 2023
  • India Channel Insight #40 | Assam Floods and Impact on Financials
  • 2022 High Conviction – Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets
  • Samsung C&T and Hyundai E&C: Two Main Beneficiaries of Neom (World’s Biggest Construction Project)
  • Pola Orbis: Pola Moves to Capture Travel Retail Demand as Air Travel Recovers
  • Brazil Banks – Returns Tug of War Between Spreads and Credit Costs, Stick with Banco Do Brasil
  • KKP : A Growth and Dividend Play
  • Las Vegas Sands:  Totally Asia Facing, It Is Valued on Financial Strength Amid Covid Challenges
  • Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Preparing to Take Off

Oriental Watch: Good Results in the Bag, Cautious H1 2023

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) profit alert for >350 mn HKD affirms our conviction on the increasing dividend (74 HKD cents for FY22, implying a 15.7% dividend yield). 
  • Lockdowns in China (accounting for 67% of the revenue) cast doubt around how H1 2023 will shape up. 
  • With cash > 50% of market capitalization, we remain positive on the company maintaining its high dividend payout for FY23 despite weakness in H1. 

India Channel Insight #40 | Assam Floods and Impact on Financials

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Our channels in Assam indicate a high impact of floods this year on the overall state economy. Normalcy is expected to take 4-5 months in order to be restored. 
  • Despite the high impact, Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) may not see an increase in NPAs.
  • New recovery tools, changing regulations and customer mindsets are aiding faster than anticipated recovery even for older loans. 

2022 High Conviction – Recruit: More Downside Ahead with Normalisation of Recruitment Markets

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) shares have declined 44.35% YTD as the company’s earnings have started normalising following easing off of Covid-19 conditions.
  • 4QFY03/2022 results showed that the strong growth in earnings that the company experienced in FY03/2022 has started to weaken with normalisation of recruitment and staffing markets.
  • With weakening earnings, we think there is further downside and Recruit will be a good short over the next few weeks.

Samsung C&T and Hyundai E&C: Two Main Beneficiaries of Neom (World’s Biggest Construction Project)

By Douglas Kim

  • Neom is the largest construction project in the world with total project size of nearly $500 billion. 
  • Neom has started to provide construction project awards for key projects in 1H 2022. Hyundai E&C and Samsung C&T consortium recently won a project estimated at $1 billion for Neom. 
  • Samsung C&T and Hyundai E&C are two key companies in Korea that will be long-term beneficiaries of the Neom futuristic city construction in Saudi Arabia. 

Pola Orbis: Pola Moves to Capture Travel Retail Demand as Air Travel Recovers

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Pola Orbis Holdings (4927 JP) is expanding its Travel Retail presence in the region to capitalise on the surge in demand from the recovery of air travel.
  • Inbound demand could also return to Japanese cosmetics through the reopening of Japan’s borders to tourists.
  • The sector is yet to break out from the downtrend. Investors willing to get in early could do that with Pola Orbis with limited downside risk.

Brazil Banks – Returns Tug of War Between Spreads and Credit Costs, Stick with Banco Do Brasil

By Victor Galliano

  • Banco Central do Brasil has been raising benchmark interest rates aggressively since 1H2021 and we believe it is approaching the peak of its tightening cycle; this feeds into loan spreads
  • 1Q22 Brazil bank results showed limited evidence of widening spreads, due to a time lag, but loan quality is worsening due to the hiking interest rates amid the soft economy
  • Disciplined loan origination should support bank returns, especially in the consumer and SME segments, containing credit cost charges growth as spreads expand; deep-value Banco do Brasil remains our top pick

KKP : A Growth and Dividend Play

By Pi Research

  • Maintain BUY for KKP with a target price of Bt82.00. We like its steady net profit growth, resilient fundamentals, and high dividend yield, expected at 5.3-6.6% for 2022-24.
  • Strong 2Q22 net profit to rise YoY : We expect Kiatnakin Phatra (KKP) to post a net profit of Bt1.9b in 2Q22, up 39% YoY (-9% QoQ). 
  • Lending growth in 2Q22 will likely continue to be strong at 4.2% QoQ (1Q22: +6.5% QoQ), largely due to higher demand from vehicle hire purchase and mortgage lending. 

Las Vegas Sands:  Totally Asia Facing, It Is Valued on Financial Strength Amid Covid Challenges

By Howard J Klein

  • LVS is now entirely a balance sheet play in that its cash position vs. run rate assures good liquidity through the lingering covid crisis.
  • Maturities of its debt pose no problems for refis until ’24,’25–and even minimal then.
  • Recurring sporadic covid outbreaks and Beijing policies impede GGR recovery. We are moving LVS from BUY to HOLD to reflect the value of its sustainability rather than growth.

Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Preparing to Take Off

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Share price of Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) underperformed that for Air China Ltd (753 HK) by wide margin in this year, which we believe is not justified.
  • Removal of lockdowns in various districts in Beijing and the revival of international passengers will be the major driver for BCIA to close the valuation gap.
  • The gradual relaxation of inbound international passengers at Beijing and the potential for a full border opening in early next years are the catalysts for BCIA’s performance.

Related tickers: Oriental Watch (0398.HK), Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN.NS), Recruit Holdings (6098.T), Samsung C&T (028260.KS), Pola Orbis Holdings (4927.T), Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3.SA), Kiatnakin Bank (KKP.BK), Las Vegas Sands (LVS.N), Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (0694.HK)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

India: Bandhan Bank Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • India Channel Insight #40 | Assam Floods and Impact on Financials

India Channel Insight #40 | Assam Floods and Impact on Financials

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Our channels in Assam indicate a high impact of floods this year on the overall state economy. Normalcy is expected to take 4-5 months in order to be restored. 
  • Despite the high impact, Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) may not see an increase in NPAs.
  • New recovery tools, changing regulations and customer mindsets are aiding faster than anticipated recovery even for older loans. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Event-Driven: Toshiba Corp, West African Resources, Emperador Inc, Kepco Engineering & Construction, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, True Corp Pcl, SPH REIT, Link Net, Home Retail and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability
  • S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes
  • Emperador (EMP PM): FTSE Inclusion Likely in September
  • Discussing How We Should Time the KEPCO E&C Block Deal
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ): LQ45 & MSCI Inclusion Done, FTSE Coming Up
  • True/​​DTAC: Merger Support After Court Ruling
  • SPH REIT Option Has 1 Week To Go – Look Elsewhere
  • Link Net MTO Set to Launch as Axiata Completes Stake Acquisition
  • FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Sanne Group Deletion Seems Likely in 3Q 2022

Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability

By Travis Lundy

  • An article this morning in the Yomiuri suggested JIC was bidding, even though they have not been in any “lists of 8 bidders” I have seen. The market yawned. 
  • An article this evening says bidders are offering “up to ¥7,000/share” but there is a range of pricing and conditions. Not surprising, but we know little. 
  • Shareholder structure matters. This has been event-y for a long time so I expect not many new buyers are ready to come in. This just shifts the range. And risk.

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be one change to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in July following the privatisation of Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)
  • Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance. 
  • There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.

Emperador (EMP PM): FTSE Inclusion Likely in September

By Brian Freitas

  • Emperador Inc (EMP PM) passes the FTSE Median Liquidity test and the inclusion thresholds for full market cap and investable market cap and could be added in the FTSE GEIS.
  • The inclusion should take place at the September SAIR and that would require passive funds to buy over 84m shares. That is over 35 days of ADV.
  • A potential secondary listing in Singapore has moved the stock in the past and that could be another trigger for the stock to move higher.

Discussing How We Should Time the KEPCO E&C Block Deal

By Sanghyun Park

  • Since KEPCO announced the sale of its stake in KEPCO E&C, this will happen. But the question is when, and the market was betting that it would not happen immediately.
  • But these bets collapsed yesterday. It is because Choo Kyung-ho, Deputy Prime Minister of Economy, publicly made remarks yesterday that seemed to pressure KEPCO to make additional self-rescue efforts.
  • KEPCO may aim at the level of ₩60,000 by applying a 5-7% discount rate from the mid-₩60,000 price. With this price in mind, we need to time this block deal.

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ): LQ45 & MSCI Inclusion Done, FTSE Coming Up

By Brian Freitas


True/​​DTAC: Merger Support After Court Ruling

By David Blennerhassett

  • According to local media, Thailand’s Central Administrative Court has dismissed a petition seeking to overturn a 2018 NBTC regulation that allowed mergers to take place without requiring the regulator’s approval.
  • Reportedly the Court ruled earlier this month that the enforcement of this regulation was lawful; and that the DTAC/True merger would not cause unrecoverable damage to the telecom sector.
  • Both DTAC and True gained on the news. A merger now appears increasingly more likely; although conditions may still be imposed to protect consumers. 

SPH REIT Option Has 1 Week To Go – Look Elsewhere

By Travis Lundy

  • The SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) “option” has performed admirably so far, up 4.2% in a month, and now it is time to look elsewhere. 
  • SPH REIT has outperformed its Retail S-REIT peers and is now near the top of its undisturbed 3-year range. 
  • And there are potential large flow events on the horizon which would benefit the Peers more than SPH REIT.

Link Net MTO Set to Launch as Axiata Completes Stake Acquisition

By Arun George

  • Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) and XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) completed the acquisition of a combined 66.03% interest in Link Net (LINK IJ) at IDR4,800 per share. 
  • Axiata will disclose the details of the MTO in due course. We think that the MTO opens on 7 July with the earliest possible close of 11 August. 
  • At the last close, the gross and annualised spread of a 19 August payment is 3.7% and 23.7%, respectively.

FTSE UK Quiddity Leaderboard Sep 2022: Sanne Group Deletion Seems Likely in 3Q 2022

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the FTSE 100 Index and the FTSE 250 Index in the September 2022 Rebalance.
  • In addition to the Regular Rebalance changes, Sanne Group PLC (SNN LN) could get deleted during the quarter, leaving room for one intra-quarterly ADD for FTSE 250. 
  • There are more M&A events that could close in the next few months and trigger irregular index changes for both FTSE 100 and FTSE 250.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Equity Capital Markets: Thai Beverage, Thai Life Insurance, aCommerce Group, MicroPort NeuroTech and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?
  • Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation and International Peer Comparison
  • ACommerce Pre-IPO – Updates Since Our Last Note – Probably Has to Scale Further to Become Profitable
  • Pre-IPO MicroPort NeuroTech – The Industry, the Business and the Concern

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?

By Arun George

  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
  • In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?, we look at the latest developments and results. 
  • The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo’s issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion. 

Thai Life Insurance Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation and International Peer Comparison

By Sumeet Singh

  • Thai Life Insurance is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Thailand IPO.
  • Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
  • In this note, we will talk about valuations and undertake a peer comparison versus its international peers.

ACommerce Pre-IPO – Updates Since Our Last Note – Probably Has to Scale Further to Become Profitable

By Clarence Chu

  • ACommerce Group (ACOM TB) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Thailand IPO. 
  • ACommerce is an ecommerce enabler providing end-to-end and ala carte ecommerce solutions for brands in Southeast Asia (SEA). 
  • In this note, we will discuss aCommerce’s updates since our last note.

Pre-IPO MicroPort NeuroTech – The Industry, the Business and the Concern

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The advantages of NeuroTech are mainly reflected in the comprehensive product portfolio and stable product performance, with higher gross margin, stronger cost control ability and first-mover advantage than its peers.
  • The major concerns here are the domestic shrinking market size due to the centralized procurement, the fierce market competition and the pain points on its sales model.
  • In terms of valuation, our view is that NeuroTech’s valuation could be higher than that of the peers such as Zylox-Tonbridge, HeartCare Medical, Peijia Medical and Sino Medical.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Oriental Watch, Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA), MicroPort NeuroTech, Guangzhou R&F Properties, Meituan and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Top Long and Short Bets Update
  • Oriental Watch: Good Results in the Bag, Cautious H1 2023
  • Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Preparing to Take Off
  • Pre-IPO MicroPort NeuroTech – The Industry, the Business and the Concern
  • Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Fosun International, Greenland Holdings Corp
  • Hang Seng Index Constituents 22nd June 2022

Asia Top Long and Short Bets Update

By Thomas Schroeder

  • China A shares has been our top long pick but near 14,700 is due to reverse. Taiwan and Korea were top shorts followed by India (lagging Asia’s decline).
  • Near A50 14,700 resistance would bring the HSI back into our top short group. HSI and H shares display slowing upside momentum.
  • USD/JPY near our 137 PT is set for a tactical top/pullback while a JGB fade could see the Nikkei jolt lower.

Oriental Watch: Good Results in the Bag, Cautious H1 2023

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) profit alert for >350 mn HKD affirms our conviction on the increasing dividend (74 HKD cents for FY22, implying a 15.7% dividend yield). 
  • Lockdowns in China (accounting for 67% of the revenue) cast doubt around how H1 2023 will shape up. 
  • With cash > 50% of market capitalization, we remain positive on the company maintaining its high dividend payout for FY23 despite weakness in H1. 

Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK): Preparing to Take Off

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Share price of Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) (694 HK) underperformed that for Air China Ltd (753 HK) by wide margin in this year, which we believe is not justified.
  • Removal of lockdowns in various districts in Beijing and the revival of international passengers will be the major driver for BCIA to close the valuation gap.
  • The gradual relaxation of inbound international passengers at Beijing and the potential for a full border opening in early next years are the catalysts for BCIA’s performance.

Pre-IPO MicroPort NeuroTech – The Industry, the Business and the Concern

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The advantages of NeuroTech are mainly reflected in the comprehensive product portfolio and stable product performance, with higher gross margin, stronger cost control ability and first-mover advantage than its peers.
  • The major concerns here are the domestic shrinking market size due to the centralized procurement, the fierce market competition and the pain points on its sales model.
  • In terms of valuation, our view is that NeuroTech’s valuation could be higher than that of the peers such as Zylox-Tonbridge, HeartCare Medical, Peijia Medical and Sino Medical.

Morning Views Asia: Country Garden Holdings Co, Fosun International, Greenland Holdings Corp

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Hang Seng Index Constituents 22nd June 2022

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Hong Kong’s Link Riet has excellent assets, but the fears of further lockdowns and rising interest rates do not make for a good combination.
  • They seem to be leading other mall operators despite higher quality assets (mostly low-end and necessities).
  • Globally none of the delivery services has a cost-effective, scalable model, as they hit the regulatory challenges and hiring costs increases for every scaleup. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Most Read: Huitongda, Toshiba Corp, Thai Beverage, West African Resources, Emperador Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
  • Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability
  • ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?
  • S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes
  • Emperador (EMP PM): FTSE Inclusion Likely in September

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI in September, plus another 9 stocks that are close to the inclusion cutoff. Some stocks are already a part of Stock Connect.
  • There could be 22 deletions from the index on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspension. Most of the deletions would be moved to the ‘sell-only’ Southbound Stock Connect list.
  • Some of the stocks that remain in the HSCI could move to the ‘sell-only’ Southbound Stock Connect list since their average market cap drops below HKD 5bn.

Oops, Price Leaks Early on Toshiba – Now We Have To Think About Probability

By Travis Lundy

  • An article this morning in the Yomiuri suggested JIC was bidding, even though they have not been in any “lists of 8 bidders” I have seen. The market yawned. 
  • An article this evening says bidders are offering “up to ¥7,000/share” but there is a range of pricing and conditions. Not surprising, but we know little. 
  • Shareholder structure matters. This has been event-y for a long time so I expect not many new buyers are ready to come in. This just shifts the range. And risk.

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?

By Arun George

  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
  • In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?, we look at the latest developments and results. 
  • The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo’s issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion. 

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Sep): Plenty of High Impact Changes

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be one change to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in July following the privatisation of Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)
  • Then there will be a whole bunch of changes to the S&P/ASX 100 Index, S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&P/ASX 300 Index in September as part of the regular rebalance. 
  • There is large short interest on a couple of the potential adds and a lot of the potential deletes. That will drive stock price moves closer to implementation.

Emperador (EMP PM): FTSE Inclusion Likely in September

By Brian Freitas

  • Emperador Inc (EMP PM) passes the FTSE Median Liquidity test and the inclusion thresholds for full market cap and investable market cap and could be added in the FTSE GEIS.
  • The inclusion should take place at the September SAIR and that would require passive funds to buy over 84m shares. That is over 35 days of ADV.
  • A potential secondary listing in Singapore has moved the stock in the past and that could be another trigger for the stock to move higher.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index Constituents 22nd June 2022

Hang Seng Index Constituents 22nd June 2022

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Hong Kong’s Link Riet has excellent assets, but the fears of further lockdowns and rising interest rates do not make for a good combination.
  • They seem to be leading other mall operators despite higher quality assets (mostly low-end and necessities).
  • Globally none of the delivery services has a cost-effective, scalable model, as they hit the regulatory challenges and hiring costs increases for every scaleup. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Singapore: Thai Beverage, SPH REIT, Las Vegas Sands and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?
  • SPH REIT Option Has 1 Week To Go – Look Elsewhere
  • Las Vegas Sands:  Totally Asia Facing, It Is Valued on Financial Strength Amid Covid Challenges

ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: What’s It Worth?

By Arun George

  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)’s BeerCo is once again pre-marketing an SGX IPO to raise US$0.8-1.0 billion, according to press reports.
  • In ThaiBev’s BeerCo IPO: Third Time’s the Charm?, we look at the latest developments and results. 
  • The target raise by offering 20% of BeerCo’s issued shares points to a valuation of US$4.0-5.0 billion. Our first-look valuation analysis suggests a valuation range of US$5.0-5.2 billion. 

SPH REIT Option Has 1 Week To Go – Look Elsewhere

By Travis Lundy

  • The SPH REIT (SPHREIT SP) “option” has performed admirably so far, up 4.2% in a month, and now it is time to look elsewhere. 
  • SPH REIT has outperformed its Retail S-REIT peers and is now near the top of its undisturbed 3-year range. 
  • And there are potential large flow events on the horizon which would benefit the Peers more than SPH REIT.

Las Vegas Sands:  Totally Asia Facing, It Is Valued on Financial Strength Amid Covid Challenges

By Howard J Klein

  • LVS is now entirely a balance sheet play in that its cash position vs. run rate assures good liquidity through the lingering covid crisis.
  • Maturities of its debt pose no problems for refis until ’24,’25–and even minimal then.
  • Recurring sporadic covid outbreaks and Beijing policies impede GGR recovery. We are moving LVS from BUY to HOLD to reflect the value of its sustainability rather than growth.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma