Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Lumen Technologies is a big player in the facilities-based technology and communications domain.
The customer experience offered by them continues to improve, driven by the company’s very high NPS as well as customer e-scores for both the upper end of the company’s customer base and Quantum Fiber.
Apart from that, Lumen Technologies has been expanding its premier residential as well as Quantum Fiber aggressively in over 30 cities and metro areas.

Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Yuexiu Property

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Dec 14

Daily Brief ECM: Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak
Sula Vineyards IPO: Forensic Analysis
TEMC IPO Preview
KFin Technologies Pre-IPO – Large Domestic Player Continues to Get Larger
Weilong Delicious Global IPO Trading – Liked by Retail but Still at a Premium

Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak

Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of Endeavour Group (EDV AU).
Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sula Vineyards IPO: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

Sula Vineyards (1332009D IN) has currently come up with its IPO. The ~INR 9.6 bn IPO comprises offer for sale and has a price band of INR 340-357 per share.
The company is a market leader with a market share crossing 50% in a relatively nascent INR 13.45 bn domestic 100% grape wine market.
Key forensic takeaways that one should consider is high litigation liabilities, emphasis on related party transactions, irrational dividends and absurd trend of line items.

TEMC IPO Preview

TEMC is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in January 2023. TEMC is a materials company that produces specialty gases for the semiconductor and display production processes.
The IPO price range is from 32,000 won to 38,000 won and the expected market cap is expected to be from 361 billion won to 429 billion won.
The company’s sales increased at a 57.4% CAGR from 2019 to 2021. Its sales exploded higher by 254% YoY to reach 238 billion won in 1Q-3Q 2022.

KFin Technologies Pre-IPO – Large Domestic Player Continues to Get Larger

By Clarence Chu

KFin Technologies (1804170D IN) is looking to raise around US$300m in its India IPO.
KFin Technology (KFin) is a technology driven financial services platform providing comprehensive services and solutions to the capital markets ecosystem.
Under its offering, it primarily serves asset managers and corporate issuers domestically, while providing investor solutions for mutual funds and private retirement schemes in other regions.

Weilong Delicious Global IPO Trading – Liked by Retail but Still at a Premium

Weilong Delicious Global (WDG), a spicy snack food company in China, raised around US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO.
According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Dec 14

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: 2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run
Korean Pair Trades Review in 2022
Omron (6645) | Key Beneficiary of Industry 4.0
Long-Term Growth Intact: Xtep
Gujarat Ambuja Exports
Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – Logic Behind Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer and the Impact
Oracle: Key Considerations For Long-Term Investors From Yet Another Strong Quarter
Intuitive Surgical Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Approvals & Other Drivers
Lumen Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion Of Quantum Fiber & Other Drivers
GlaxoSmithKline ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

As the year draws to a close, we took time to assess the effectiveness of our high-conviction calls made during the past two years.
With further dividend hikes looking increasingly possible, our 2022 high-conviction call, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) has more room to run this year.
However, it’s probably the right time to take profits from our 2021 high-conviction trade, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) as the US gas-stations profitability maxed-out in the last quarter.

Korean Pair Trades Review in 2022

In this insight, we review all the 16 Korean pair trade ideas in 2022.
A few of the best performing pair trade ideas this year included long LG Chem/short LGES, long Doosan Corp/short Doosan Enerbility, and long KIH/short MFG.
Going forward in 2023, as the market continues to show higher volatility, there could be continued strong interest in pair trade ideas in Korea.

Omron (6645) | Key Beneficiary of Industry 4.0

By Mark Chadwick

Omron is a structural growth stock that has fallen by 39% YTD reflecting near term risks to growth and margins
We believe that Omron is a major beneficiary of continued investment in automation and the shift to Industry 4.0
We analyse Omron’s core value drivers – revenue, margins, risk and reinvestment – and see 35% upside

Long-Term Growth Intact: Xtep

By Xin Yu, CFA

4Q22 retail sales was negatively affected by the covid restrictions
Sales growth is expected to recover in 1Q23 with China’s nationwide loosening policy.
Long term growth is intact with continued upgrades of brands, products and channels

Gujarat Ambuja Exports

By Gauri Anand

Company holds pole position in corn starch processing in India with ~ 25% market share; but accounts for a significant share of industry’s profit pool.
Further expanded capacity by 40% (1200tpd) just last week and another 25% expansion is planned for Q4FY24E, the 60%+ capacity expansion will drive volume led growth forward.
Cost pressures (commodity, energy) to abate in FY24E. Formidable player, capital efficient business, cost leadership, net cash stature, low valuations(<10x PER, <1x EV/Sales), favors investment.

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – Logic Behind Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer and the Impact

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Boston Scientific angles for majority stake with US$523 million for Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669HK), which is the largest acquisition of a Chinese medical device company by a MNC since 2014.
Completion of the Partial Offer would further strengthen Boston Scientific’s presence in China and create the potential for commercialization of Acotec products globally. It’s a win-win deal for both sides.
Companies listed in HKEX don’t have to seek valuation within HKEX system. If they can find “new anchor points”, they’ll have higher valuation.Chapter 18A companies’ future stock prices would diverge.

Oracle: Key Considerations For Long-Term Investors From Yet Another Strong Quarter

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Oracle continues to outperform its peers and the broader equity market after reporting yet another strong quarter.
The cloud application segment continues to deliver, the infrastructure side of the business deserves more attention, according to analysts and market commentators.
The early signs were plain to see a couple of years back, says analyst.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Approvals & Other Drivers

This is our first report on Intuitive Surgical, one of the largest players in robotic surgery offerings across the globe.
Korean growth remained steady, while Japanese procedure growth quickened compared to Q2.
We initiate coverage on the stock of Intuitive Surgical with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Lumen Technologies Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion Of Quantum Fiber & Other Drivers

This is our first report on Lumen Technologies, one of the major facilities-based technology and communications companies in the world.
During the quarter, 31,000 Quantum Fiber customers were added.
Apart from that, Lumen Technologies has been expanding its premier residential as well as Quantum Fiber aggressively in over 30 cities and metro areas.

GlaxoSmithKline ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

This is our first report on GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world.
The company is making a significant performance in both operating performance and R&D productivity.
GSK continued disciplined cost control by prioritizing investments in the growth for supporting launches in Vaccines and Specialty Medicines, namely Shingrix.

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Dec 14

Daily Brief Event-Driven: S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)
NTT Buying NTT Data Shares – ¥40bn to Go
MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion
Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue
Haidilao’s Imminent SpinOff of the Super Hi Overseas Business – Index Treatment and Implications
Origin Energy: Gas Price Cap Compromises Brookfield’s Offer
Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities
DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition
China ADRs Delisting – Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks
EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Revisiting the December Call Ratios

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
There could be an addition to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)‘s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)‘s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.

NTT Buying NTT Data Shares – ¥40bn to Go

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) did a deal earlier this year to sell NTT’s global data business to NTT Data. Discussed here.
NTT sold 55% of its current overseas business in NTT Communications, Dimension Data, and NTT Security Group, in return getting 45% of NTT Data’s current global business, plus ¥112bn.
NTT would then spend ¥100bn of the ¥112bn increasing its stake. So far it has spent ¥58.39bn buying 18% of volume every day since Oct 1.

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Cromwell Property (CMW AU) is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.
Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of Cromwell Property (CMW AU) and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.
There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.

Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue

In March, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be bought out by INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) for ¥770/share. One activist objected, and bought 28%. They then said they’d pay ¥1,000.
The Infroneer deal failure started an acrimonious back and forth. The hostility lessened over the summer, but despite activist Yamauchi Family Office’s protestations of love, no deal as of November.
Today saw another press release, delaying things. The contents are 🌶🌶🌶. NOW things are getting more interesting. Hostility is back. Medium-spicy. Three 🌶 out of five.

Haidilao’s Imminent SpinOff of the Super Hi Overseas Business – Index Treatment and Implications

On 11 July, Haidilao (6862 HK) announced it would propose to spin off its international restaurant business (13-15% of revenue) to shareholders and employees. Shareholders approved in August.
There were interim announcements and indeed interim reports with some information, but not a lot. But Super Hi International Holding was headed for separate listing in HK.
Last week, Haidilao said it was going ahead with a Listing by Introduction pending listing approval by HKEX. Haidilao shares go ex- 16 December. Index providers have announced treatment.

Origin Energy: Gas Price Cap Compromises Brookfield’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

On the 10 November, Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean offered Origin Energy (ORG AU) shareholders $9.00/share, a 54.9% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The Offer is non-binding.
On the 9 December, the Aussie government said it would take action to limit the worst impacts of the forecast gas price increases to protect Australian households, industry, and manufacturers.
This includes a temporary price cap on new domestic wholesale gas contracts by east coast producers, such as Origin, for 12 months.

Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities

Small machine tool maker OKK used to be good for about ¥2bn in EBITDA, then that dropped to the low ¥1bns on average, then the last two years were negative.
A year ago, Nidec agreed to inject capital and buy 66.6% of OKK – Now Nidec OKK – for peanuts. Yesterday, the two agreed a scrip merger on 1 March.
The process and ratio leave a LOT to be desired but they only need 66.67% and with 66.66% already, it’s a done deal. Nothing you can do about it.

DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

By Arun George

The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
Telenor ASA (TEL NO) and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity.
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.

China ADRs Delisting – Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we’ll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.

EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Revisiting the December Call Ratios

By Simon Harris

In November we published on the upside potential in Alibaba
Stock has rallied and the call ratio we recommended has performed very well
We evaluate the trade and look at potential trade options

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Dec 14

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Unemployment Turn Confirmed and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

UK: Unemployment Turn Confirmed
CX Daily: Covid Chaos at China’s Hospitals as Stringent Control Policy Eases
China Covid Policy – update
India: State Elections Show BJP Strength, but Not Invincibility

UK: Unemployment Turn Confirmed

By Phil Rush

The UK unemployment rate rose again to 3.67% in Oct-22. The 3-month change in the single-month rate slowed to 0.2pp, so it remains consistent with 3.8% at yearend.
Falling vacancies and rising redundancies confirm the turn in labour demand, which failed to absorb the recent increase in supply despite still being historically high.
Government policy has encouraged bumper pay demands and second-round effects. The BoE should be worried by signs 5% is becoming the new 2% in pay awards for 2023.

CX Daily: Covid Chaos at China’s Hospitals as Stringent Control Policy Eases

By Caixin Global

Covid-19: Covid chaos at China’s hospitals as stringent control policy eases

Yuan: Xi seeks yuan settlement of China energy trades with Gulf states

Bonds: China to roll over $108 billion of special sovereign bonds

China Covid Policy – update

By Mark Tinker

As such, we were more than a little pleased to see that the authorities in the Hong Kong SAR have indeed announced some new reductions to the restrictions to travel, in particular in lifting the 0+3 limitations to visit bars and restaurants that, among other things, were limiting the ability of international investors to include Hong Kong SAR as part of a broader Asia business trip (admitted self interest here!).
While some limited restrictions still remain, the direction of travel is clear and likely that a lot of focus will now be for full opening up to China for Chinese New Year (something Hong Kong SAR CEO John Lee has declared as something “I will do everything I can to facilitate”).
Of course, the HSI has also been rallying since the end of October, helped in particular by the rebound to the China Internet stocks that were linked to the ADR capitulation – many of the stocks had listed on the HSI and thus had acted as a drag on the performance of the index as the ADRs were dumped by US investors (see Is US tax driving Chinese stocks?).

India: State Elections Show BJP Strength, but Not Invincibility

By Manu Bhaskaran

Modi’s BJP won a landslide victory in Gujarat, but the Aam Aadmi Party makes a significant breakthrough in vote share, cementing its position as a national party.
Congress wrests control of the Himachal Pradesh legislature, demonstrating that the party still has some fight in it despite its recent challenges.
Aam Aadmi also takes over the Delhi Municipal Corporation, its pitch of delivering public service benefits resonating with the Delhi electorate.

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Dec 14

Most Read: Li Auto, Omni Bridgeway, NTT Data Corp, Cromwell Property, Toyo Construction, Origin Energy, Haidilao, Endeavour Group, Okk Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications
HSTECH: Index Handling Changes & Flows in March
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)
NTT Buying NTT Data Shares – ¥40bn to Go
MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion
Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue
Origin Energy: Gas Price Cap Compromises Brookfield’s Offer
Haidilao’s Imminent SpinOff of the Super Hi Overseas Business – Index Treatment and Implications
Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak
Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities

Haidilao’s Spin-Off of Super Hi: Index Implications

Haidilao (6862 HK) intends to spin-off its 90% holding in Super Hi International Holding (SHI HK) with an ex-date of 16 December.
Super Hi International Holding (SHI HK) will be deleted from the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at the close on listing day.
There could be nationality changes and selling from MSCI and FTSE trackers as well, though the timing is uncertain at this point.

HSTECH: Index Handling Changes & Flows in March

Hang Seng Indexes has changed the index handling treatment for Secondary Listings and Dual Primary Listings from the next rebalance in March.
The change could result in Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) replacing Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) in the index.
There could be passive buying on Li Auto (2015 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK) due to an increase in the index shares with outflows on other index constituents.

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

We currently see one change each for the ASX20 and ASX100 indices, 4 changes for the S&P/ASX 200 and 10 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
There could be an addition to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in January following Pendal Group (PDL AU)‘s acquisition by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
PEXA Group (PXA AU) is a potential inclusion to the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) if Link Administration (LNK AU)‘s in-specie distribution of PEXA shares to its shareholders is approved.

NTT Buying NTT Data Shares – ¥40bn to Go

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) did a deal earlier this year to sell NTT’s global data business to NTT Data. Discussed here.
NTT sold 55% of its current overseas business in NTT Communications, Dimension Data, and NTT Security Group, in return getting 45% of NTT Data’s current global business, plus ¥112bn.
NTT would then spend ¥100bn of the ¥112bn increasing its stake. So far it has spent ¥58.39bn buying 18% of volume every day since Oct 1.

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

Cromwell Property (CMW AU) is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.
Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of Cromwell Property (CMW AU) and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.
There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.

Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue

In March, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be bought out by INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) for ¥770/share. One activist objected, and bought 28%. They then said they’d pay ¥1,000.
The Infroneer deal failure started an acrimonious back and forth. The hostility lessened over the summer, but despite activist Yamauchi Family Office’s protestations of love, no deal as of November.
Today saw another press release, delaying things. The contents are 🌶🌶🌶. NOW things are getting more interesting. Hostility is back. Medium-spicy. Three 🌶 out of five.

Origin Energy: Gas Price Cap Compromises Brookfield’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

On the 10 November, Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean offered Origin Energy (ORG AU) shareholders $9.00/share, a 54.9% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The Offer is non-binding.
On the 9 December, the Aussie government said it would take action to limit the worst impacts of the forecast gas price increases to protect Australian households, industry, and manufacturers.
This includes a temporary price cap on new domestic wholesale gas contracts by east coast producers, such as Origin, for 12 months.

Haidilao’s Imminent SpinOff of the Super Hi Overseas Business – Index Treatment and Implications

On 11 July, Haidilao (6862 HK) announced it would propose to spin off its international restaurant business (13-15% of revenue) to shareholders and employees. Shareholders approved in August.
There were interim announcements and indeed interim reports with some information, but not a lot. But Super Hi International Holding was headed for separate listing in HK.
Last week, Haidilao said it was going ahead with a Listing by Introduction pending listing approval by HKEX. Haidilao shares go ex- 16 December. Index providers have announced treatment.

Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak

Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of Endeavour Group (EDV AU).
Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities

Small machine tool maker OKK used to be good for about ¥2bn in EBITDA, then that dropped to the low ¥1bns on average, then the last two years were negative.
A year ago, Nidec agreed to inject capital and buy 66.6% of OKK – Now Nidec OKK – for peanuts. Yesterday, the two agreed a scrip merger on 1 March.
The process and ratio leave a LOT to be desired but they only need 66.67% and with 66.66% already, it’s a done deal. Nothing you can do about it.

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Dec 14

Daily Brief South Korea: LG Energy Solution, Temc, WCP, Akros Technologies and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Korean Pair Trades Review in 2022
TEMC IPO Preview
Recent IPOs Carrying Putback Option in Korea: Market’s Attention Is on WCP
Line Parent’s VC Firm Leads $2.3m Funding for Korean ETF Startup

Korean Pair Trades Review in 2022

In this insight, we review all the 16 Korean pair trade ideas in 2022.
A few of the best performing pair trade ideas this year included long LG Chem/short LGES, long Doosan Corp/short Doosan Enerbility, and long KIH/short MFG.
Going forward in 2023, as the market continues to show higher volatility, there could be continued strong interest in pair trade ideas in Korea.

TEMC IPO Preview