Smartkarma Daily Briefs

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) has announced Sinochem, its largest shareholder with 65.2%, has entered into a SPA to sell 36% of shares out to China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH).
Upon completion of the SPA, Hainan Rubber will make an MGO, conditional on a 50% tendering acceptance. Sinochem has provided an undertaking not to tender its remaining 29.2% stake.
The Offer Price? The SPA price is US$0.315/share and the Offer Price will be the SGD equivalent at the close of the SPA.

Sea & Pinduoduo Are in Dangerous Territory With Tencent in Disposal Mode

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

After distributing over 450m of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) shares to its shareholders late last year, Tencent (700 HK) took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.
Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m Meituan (3690 HK) shares to Tencent shareholders.
Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.

Grab: Almost No Price Reaction to a So-Called Strong Set of Results as There Is Much to Prove

Grab (GRAB US) reported 3Q2022 results yesterday. 3Q revenue increased 143% YoY to $382m (vs consensus $348m) while reported an adjusted EBITDA (negative) of $161m (vs consensus $202m).
The highlight of 3Q2022 earnings was the break-even of deliveries business as well as improvement in Mobilities financials driven by reduction in incentives (as % of GMV).
Though the company called it a strong set of results, Grab’s share price moved up by 0.64% could be an indication that the profitability may not be sustainable.

SG’s ADDX Raises $20m in Round Led by Korea’s KB Securities

By Tech in Asia

Singapore private market exchange ADDX has secured US$20 million in a pre-series B extension round.
The new capital injection comes on top of the US$58 million that ADDX initially raised in May, the company said in a release.
Regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, ADDX uses blockchain and smart contract tech to automate the manual processes in private market investing.

AI-Driven Property Portal MOGUL.sg Nets US$6.5M Series A

By e27

MOGUL.sg’s 3D map supports searches with an immersive experience to help prospective buyers visualise the properties and their surrounding areas better.
MOGUL.sg, an AI-driven property search portal in Singapore, has raised S$9 (US$6.5) million in its first-ever funding round.
Launched in 2018, MOGUL.sg aims to make property searches easy with smart keywords, property tagging, and a specially curated agent concierge team to assist homeowners.

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Nov 18

Daily Brief Australia: OZ Minerals Ltd, Pendal Group, PTB Group Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): BHP Ups Offer by 13%; This Should Get Done
Pendal/Perpetual: Revised Terms As Supreme Court Orders Scheme To Proceed
OZ Minerals (OZL AU) And BHP Have a Deal – Investors Have an OTM Option on Copper
Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Deal Gets a Lifeline from the Court
PTB Group: Scheme Approved. Now For The Dividend

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): BHP Ups Offer by 13%; This Should Get Done

BHP Group has made a revised conditional, non-binding and indicative proposal to acquire all shares in OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) at A$28.25/share, 13% higher than its earlier offer.
The OZ Minerals Board has agreed to give BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) exclusive due diligence access for 4 weeks and intends to unanimously recommend the revised proposal.
Barring a competing proposal, this is BHP Group‘s best and final price – expect the stock to trade close to A$28/share today.

Pendal/Perpetual: Revised Terms As Supreme Court Orders Scheme To Proceed

Under the revised terms, Pendal (PDL AU) shareholders will receive 1 Perpetual (PPT AU) share for every 7 Pendal shares plus $1.65/share cash versus 7.50 Pendal shares and $1.976 cash.
Separately, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled that Perpetual cannot delay the Scheme on the expectation of a more favourable Offer for the company.
The first court hearing for the Scheme has been deferred until next week to seek orders convening the Scheme Meeting and for the despatch of the Scheme Booklet to shareholders.

OZ Minerals (OZL AU) And BHP Have a Deal – Investors Have an OTM Option on Copper

After nearly 3 months of no talks and movement, then a flurry of both, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) have an agreed Revised Proposal.
OZ Minerals Board has agreed to support the Revised Proposal at A$28.25/share, a 13% bump, subject to due diligence provided on an exclusive basis for four weeks.
A fully-franked dividend or capital return will be allowed (Scheme price to be adjusted). This will probably trade tight. One owns a call option on copper for probably 3-4 months.

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Deal Gets a Lifeline from the Court

By Arun George

Pendal Group (PDL AU) entered a revised SID with Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU). The revised offer consists of scrip (1 Perpetual share for every 7 Pendal share) and cash (A$1.650).
Separately, the court found that Pendal could seek a range of remedies in addition to the A$23 million break fee should Perpetual terminate the scheme.
While Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT could yet derail the scheme by lobbing another bid for Perpetual, the unprecedented court ruling makes it more challenging and costly.

PTB Group: Scheme Approved. Now For The Dividend

PTB Group Ltd (PTB AU) shareholders comprehensively approved the PAG Scheme on the 16 November. Shares will be suspended from trading at the close on the 30 November.
However, before the trading halt, PTB’s board is expected to declare a final (and fully franked) dividend to Scheme shareholders up to the amount of A$0.03/share.
Expect that declaration to occur on or around Monday, 28 November.

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Nov 18

Daily Brief United States: S&P 500, Dollar Index, Binance Coin, Adeia, Capri Holdings, Electronic Arts, Lear Corp, Match Group Inc, Qorvo Inc, Roku and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Buy This Give Back
Defending the Gold Premium
The Winners and Losers in a Post-FTX World
ADEA: Free Cash Flow & Valuation
Capri Holdings: Major Drivers
Electronic Arts Inc: New Windows Application & Other Developments
Lear Corporation: New Sustainability Solutions Addition & Other Developments
Match Group: Major Drivers
Qorvo Inc: Major Drivers
Roku Inc: Expansion Of Free Streaming In Mexico & Other Drivers

Buy This Give Back

By Thomas Schroeder

US equities give back post PPI is a buying opportunity within our Q4 bull framework. The conviction trade is to sell USD upticks with lower yields in store into December.
Sell the USD into Dec which supports turn around plays in Asia. DXY 103 is our bull support to stage a fresh rise. How will yields respond?
SPX 3,850 buy support with 4,100/200 the Q4 target to top build ahead of a fresh Q1 bear cycle. Summer bounce similarities.

Defending the Gold Premium

By Kaiko

When you look around the world for a big, liquid, globally accepted safe haven, there is only one, and that is gold, which continues to reassert its status as the asset of last resort.
Pre-1970, in the days of the gold standard, gold formally enjoyed this role.
Today, after a 50-year break, the free market is putting gold back onto the pedestal where it belongs.

The Winners and Losers in a Post-FTX World

By Kaiko

The aftershocks of the FTX fraud continue to ripple through crypto, with entities such as Genesis Trading and the FTX-owned exchange Liquid halting withdrawals over the last couple of days.
It’s likely that it will take months or years to determine who the real winners and losers of the biggest scandal in crypto history will be, but there are some interesting market dynamics to be aware of in the immediate aftermath of the collapse of FTX.
Using Kaiko’s CeFi and DeFi data, we have identified some important trends that give an indication as to who may stand to win and lose in the future.

ADEA: Free Cash Flow & Valuation

By Hamed Khorsand

ADEA reported third quarter results that still included the financial results of its products business prior to the spin-off. ADEA generates revenue from IP licenses, creating a steady revenue stream
ADEA expanding its base of licensees over the next year should set a pathway to ADEA reaching baseline revenue of $500 million a year from $375 million currently
ADEA applying free cash flow to reducing its debt balance should yield a higher valuation for the stock price

Capri Holdings: Major Drivers

Capri Holdings delivered quite a strong result which happened to be an all-around beat.
With the three pillars, Greca, Virtus, and La Medusa making significant progress, the goal of the company is to position Versace as the prominent luxury leather house.
Capri also expanded its core lines that incorporate iconic house codes for broadening the reach of Versace.

Electronic Arts Inc: New Windows Application & Other Developments

EA’s stock trajectory has remained sideways even after a disappointing quarterly result where the company failed to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
Its EA Sports portfolio and its multiplatform live services businesses have helped the company thrive in a tough phase.
During the quarter, EA launched Premier Sports Games and delivered its largest EA Sports FIFA console and PC launch.

Lear Corporation: New Sustainability Solutions Addition & Other Developments

Lear Corporation saw a significantly improved set of results in the last quarter and it managed to surpass Wall Street expectations on all fronts.
The improved results reflect higher production volumes as well as its strong new business backlog.
Core operating earnings and sales increased and in both e-Systems and seating, operating margins improved as compared to the previous year.

Match Group: Major Drivers

Match Group is currently operating in a challenging macro-economic environment and its stock price has been tumbling over the past few months.
Excluding the forex impact, Match Group delivered double-digit growth given the fact that Tinder has been performing quite well.
We provide the stock of Match Groups with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

Qorvo Inc: Major Drivers

Qorvo delivered an excellent result with its quarterly revenue as well as EPS above the market expectations.
Revenue in high-performance analog was broad-based, with the strength primarily in high-power applications and defense.
In Advanced cellular, Qorvo enjoyed quite a big customer ramp in the quarter.

Roku Inc: Expansion Of Free Streaming In Mexico & Other Drivers

This is our first report on streaming major, Roku.
The company had a strong first quarter of 2022 with Platform revenue up 39% yearly, driven by increased content distribution and advertising revenue.
As one of the industry’s top platforms for streaming TV, the company anticipates long-term growth in active users and platform revenue.

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Nov 18

Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, Taste Gourmet Group, Growatt Technology, Anhui Conch Cement, Meituan, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union, Country Garden Holdings Co, China Resources Pharmaceutical and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q23, Better Growth, Better Margin, 38% Upside
Taste Gourmet: Cash Generation Par Excellence
Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): The Trough Looks to Be Behind Us
Buy Meituan on Tencent’s Distribution Announcement of Meituan Shares
China’s Top Rare Earth Mining Company and Top Refiner Fight Over Prices
HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC
China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) – Here Are the Concerns

Alibaba (9988 HK): 2Q23, Better Growth, Better Margin, 38% Upside

By Ming Lu

Revenue began to grow in 2Q23 after the zero growth in 1Q23.
The operating margin improved to 12.1% in 2Q23 versus 7.5% in 2Q22.
We believe the stock has an upside of 38% and a price target of HK$108.

Taste Gourmet: Cash Generation Par Excellence

By Sameer Taneja

Taste Gourmet Group (8371 HK) reported its H1 2023 result with profit of 32 mn HKD up 28% YoY, backed by subsidies due to restrictions earlier in the year.
Net cash rose by 52 mn HKD (almost 12.4% of market capitalization) to 117 mn HKD HoH (28% of market cap). Nine mn HKD in subsidies are outstanding.
The company declared 4.8 cents of dividend (9.1% annualized yield), in addition to repurchasing and canceling >2% of the shares outstanding recently.

Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption, as well as energy digitalization.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and peer comparison. In this note, we will look at assumptions and share our thoughts on valuation.

Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK): The Trough Looks to Be Behind Us

By Osbert Tang, CFA

3Q22 is probably the worst quarter for Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK) in this cycle. Demand has picked up sequentially, with 4Q22 average cement price up 7% QoQ.
It expects the spending of special purpose bond proceeds and possibly push forward of 2023 quotas to benefit infrastructure demand. The stabilisation of property market also helps.
Cost management efforts will soon pay off, providing room for recovery in margin. Solid financial position with net cash equals to 34.5% of share price is an added strength.

Buy Meituan on Tencent’s Distribution Announcement of Meituan Shares

By Xin Yu, CFA

Tencent announced to transfer 958 million shares of Meituan as a special dividend
This distribution is similar to the previous JD distribution in Dec 2021
The transfer of Meituan shares can provide potential two entry points of the stock.

China’s Top Rare Earth Mining Company and Top Refiner Fight Over Prices

By Caixin Global

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co. Ltd., the world’s largest rare earth mining company, is still pressing for a significant price increase from its only customer even though the buyer’s shareholders rejected two previous proposals.
Higher prices for Baotou Steel Union’s output of the key materials for green technologies could lead to a broader price increase for the minerals.
China has the world’s largest deposits of the 17 closely related rare earth metals.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.
What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.
The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) – Here Are the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The distribution business is stable, but it’s difficult to achieve high growth/profits due to industry trend. Therefore, the valuation of this business is hard to increase.
The performance of pharmaceutical manufacturing business is important, which largely determines the overall profit margin. But it actually depends on what the subsidiaries can contribute, who are facing different challenges.
China Resources Pharmaceutical may need to improve its vision of asset selection and its ability to judge and grasp the long-term trend of the industry. The current valuation isn’t attractive.

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Nov 18

Daily Brief India: Delhivery and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

By Sumeet Singh

In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.

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Nov 18

Daily Brief Japan: Oriental Land, Appier Group, Shimamura, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)
Appier (4180) | Why Has the Stock Outperformed?
Shimamura Set for Another Record
Quarterly Disclosure Discussions Leave Investor Perspectives Behind

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723), and Japan Airlines (9201). The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707), Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703).
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.

Appier (4180) | Why Has the Stock Outperformed?

By Mark Chadwick

Appier has been by far the best performing small-cap growth stock in Japan this year
The company is gaining market share overseas, massively augmenting the Total Addressable Market
It’s high growth, rising margins, and growing TAM makes this a top stock for SaaS investors

Shimamura Set for Another Record

By Michael Causton

Like Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) and Honeys Holdings Co., Ltd. (2792 JP), Shimamura (8227 JP) has been a beneficiary of both household budget worries during Covid and inflation concerns since.
The apparel retailer has also worked hard to develop better cost performance ranges and more exciting marketing through collaborations with influencers, helping regain footfall levels.
Shimamura has clearly regained momentum and looks set to continue to benefit from consumer fears over inflation and ongoing shifts in spending towards low-price retailers.

Quarterly Disclosure Discussions Leave Investor Perspectives Behind

By Aki Matsumoto

FSA, which wanted to add Sustainability section, could reach a compromise with companies that wanted to eliminate quarterly disclosures, but but the discussion of the substantive issues took a backseat.
Since it would be impossible for the supervisory authority not to take action in cases that may occur in future despite empirical evidence, FSA will impose some penalties for misstatements.
Continuity of information is of utmost importance because if a company that has disclosed quarterly stops doing so, investment decisions will be affected by reduced information available for judging stock-valuation.

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Nov 18

Most Read: Meituan, Devsisters, Oriental Land, Halcyon Agri, OZ Minerals Ltd, Delhivery, Pendal Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Meituan (3690 HK): Impact of Tencent’s In-Specie Dividend
Tencent Distribution of Meituan Shares Official – Impact and Index Implications
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes with a Couple of Surprises
Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)
Halcyon Agri: Hainan Rubber’s Conditional MGO
OZ Minerals (OZL AU): BHP Ups Offer by 13%; This Should Get Done
Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder
Pendal/Perpetual: Revised Terms As Supreme Court Orders Scheme To Proceed
OZ Minerals (OZL AU) And BHP Have a Deal – Investors Have an OTM Option on Copper
Good Morning Japan | Hopes Dashed but Resilience Evident

Meituan (3690 HK): Impact of Tencent’s In-Specie Dividend

Tencent (700 HK) has announced that it will pay an interim dividend via an in-specie distribution of the bulk of its holding in Meituan (3690 HK).
Passive FTSE and MSCI trackers will receive shares in Meituan (3690 HK) from their Tencent (700 HK) holdings and they will not need to trade anything in the market.
First it was JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), now it is Meituan (3690 HK). The market will be looking for other stocks held by Tencent (700 HK) that could be next.

Tencent Distribution of Meituan Shares Official – Impact and Index Implications

In mid-August at mid-day, a Reuters article suggested Tencent (700 HK) would seek to divest its $24bn stake in Meituan (3690 HK) this year. The stock fell 9% that afternoon.
The general underlying suggestion was that regulators wanted them to sell. Other articles suggested later both aspects were “untrue”
With Q3 earnings, Tencent today announced a Jan23 distribution (Mar23 settlement) of 958,121,562 Meituan shares (1 for every 10 Tencent shares held). There are significant flow and index implications.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes with a Couple of Surprises

There are 11 inclusions and 11 exclusions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance to be implemented at the close on 8 December.
We had forecast most of the changes (10 adds and 9 deletes), so there are a few surprises. The inclusion of SillaJen Inc (215600 KS) is the biggest one.
The adds to the index become short sell eligible from the open of trading on 9 December while the deletions will not be short sell eligible from the same time.

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723), and Japan Airlines (9201). The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707), Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703).
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.

Halcyon Agri: Hainan Rubber’s Conditional MGO

Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) has announced Sinochem, its largest shareholder with 65.2%, has entered into a SPA to sell 36% of shares out to China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH).
Upon completion of the SPA, Hainan Rubber will make an MGO, conditional on a 50% tendering acceptance. Sinochem has provided an undertaking not to tender its remaining 29.2% stake.
The Offer Price? The SPA price is US$0.315/share and the Offer Price will be the SGD equivalent at the close of the SPA.

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): BHP Ups Offer by 13%; This Should Get Done

BHP Group has made a revised conditional, non-binding and indicative proposal to acquire all shares in OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) at A$28.25/share, 13% higher than its earlier offer.
The OZ Minerals Board has agreed to give BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) exclusive due diligence access for 4 weeks and intends to unanimously recommend the revised proposal.
Barring a competing proposal, this is BHP Group‘s best and final price – expect the stock to trade close to A$28/share today.

Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry – US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

By Sumeet Singh

In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.

Pendal/Perpetual: Revised Terms As Supreme Court Orders Scheme To Proceed

Under the revised terms, Pendal (PDL AU) shareholders will receive 1 Perpetual (PPT AU) share for every 7 Pendal shares plus $1.65/share cash versus 7.50 Pendal shares and $1.976 cash.
Separately, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled that Perpetual cannot delay the Scheme on the expectation of a more favourable Offer for the company.
The first court hearing for the Scheme has been deferred until next week to seek orders convening the Scheme Meeting and for the despatch of the Scheme Booklet to shareholders.

OZ Minerals (OZL AU) And BHP Have a Deal – Investors Have an OTM Option on Copper